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PatPfund

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Everything posted by PatPfund

  1. PatPfund
    Love the idea! Especially if it means we never have to see the gutsy, but defensively challenged (at least in this position) Polanco at 3B.
  2. PatPfund
    Yeah, well except for the part where Royce has shown no interest in the position since tearing his knee up out there, and the team isn't pushing him to do it, it sounds like a great plan. (To fill up discussion threads)
  3. PatPfund
    I agree this would be like 2020 when the Twins were dominant offensively, had definite pitching needs, and chose more offense. This team just lost 40% of its starting rotation to free agency, and should have two of its most potent young (aka affordable) bats available at 1B (LH) Kirilloff (whose injury was blessedly NOT wrist related), and (RH) Miranda. Pitching is going to cost in money and/or prospects, and the fact we only added young position players to the 40-man doesn't exactly scream our system will supply the SPs. (Frankly, if we keep Polanco, I'd like to see him at 1B. He could use the position flexibility, and while I applaud his guts at 3B, if I never see him play there again that would be just fine.)
  4. PatPfund
    As a few have refreshingly noted, the supposed OF 'surplus' doesn't exist. Sure it is better than last year when things got so bad Gilberto Celestino was a regular starter (a guy who struggled to start in St Paul this year and has since been released). But right now we have Wallner, Kepler, and a bunch of question marks (Gordon? Castro? Larnach? Martin? Keirsey? Re-sing MAT? Another FA or trade person?) Which doesn't mean you don't trade Kepler; the Twins should explore the market and make the move that best helps for next year. We could definitely use second-half-Max at $10mill next year, but if he can fetch higher value, then do it. (Wallner can go to RF; Kirilloff, the Question Marks and any signees can duke it out for CF/LF both in Spring Training and/or in St Paul. But trading Max likely means adding another vet, so you have to factor that in.) And please just say no to Cortes. I laughed out loud at the 'slot right behind Lopez' nonsense. Last year he would have slotted in right behind Randy Dobnak in AAA. We can sign better lower tier FAs.
  5. PatPfund
    Do we really need a RH bat? All three of our catchers are RH. Royce Lewis is RH. Kyle Farmer is RH. Austin Martin is RH. Correa is RH. Miranda is RH. Buxton is RH. Polanco, Castro and Severino are switch hitters. The OF is the only place mostly LH, and re-signing MAT adds a Gold Glove RH hitter. At the trade deadline we were missing Buxton, Miranda and Lewis, and Correa was at career lows. Martin and Severino weren't on the edge of MLB. But things have changed including the payroll budget (and the real potential at AAA). If the Twins are serious about competing and holding a payroll line, they need to avoid adding an expensive block to inner talent a la Joey Gallo, and focus resources on the real need(s) in the pitching rotation.
  6. PatPfund
    I'm mystified as to why a guy who couldn't make our rotation last year would be worth more than our everyday RF coming off his best half-season in years (and who would be pulling balls into that short porch all year in the Bronx). Almost as mystified as how "backend" prospect toss-in possibilities include our 4th, 6th, 8th, 12th, or 18th prospects. I'd rather just re-sign Maeda who will likely be better than Nestor next year. Or try SWR who will probably be better than Nestor next year. (Cortes would be walking back down the Mahle/Matty Shoe/Dylan Bundy/Chris Archer trail. Please, no.)
  7. PatPfund
    Nope. The Twins have in-house solutions at 1B (Kirilloff won a Player of the Month while healthy last year, and the last time Miranda was healthy, he was one of the most dangerous bats in the lineup). And Alonso is a pure rental. I don't think Rodriguez is untouchable at all, but I think the Twins aren't shipping prime prospects out for anything but pitching this offseason.
  8. PatPfund
    This article seems a bit over the top for this early in the off-season. The veteran help cited in the OP (Farmer, Solano, Taylor) combined to make about what Gallo did all on his own, so there is plenty of room to add veteran depth even in the reduced budget. And plenty of time to do so before Spring Training.
  9. PatPfund
    None of the hitters seem like they could even make the current roster except maybe Matthews, and the pitchers other than Woodruff are the type you sign a bit before Spring Training for pennies as roster depth. Woodruff won't pitch at all next year, and may be iffy to ever be good again, so unless the deal is cheap for '25 (when the Twins committed payroll balloons) I'd avoid him as well.
  10. PatPfund
    Tough room when you win a league MVP, and get dumped on all over the comments. @DocBauer is correct; it isn't a shock somebody in A ball has things to work on to get to MLB, it is the whole reason you have A (and AA and AAA) ball. My biggest chuckle from the OP was the list of MLB players "blocking" a very young prospect. Byron hasn't played OF in about 2 years, and Larnach needs to make his own improvements, or he might not be playing baseball in a few years when Kala'i could be expected to arrive. And it's just foolish to look at the current MLB roster when discussing an A level prospect; you simply try to develop as many as you can, and skill and/or trades will work through any 'blocks' you tried to predict 3 years ahead of time.
  11. PatPfund
    Guess I'd tender all of the seven not traded to keep the trade options open. Not just that you might trade these players, but that you would need the depth to fill in if others are traded (Polo? Miranda? Wallner? Julien? Larnach? Kepler? Lee? Trade almost any of them, or more than one for a pitcher, and the depth chart shuffles.) Most are also pretty cheap, and if you waive someone (like Gordon), and someone claims them (and their pay) you are no worse off than if you non-tender.
  12. PatPfund
    I think the OP is essentially correct; 2023 was Larnach's big chance, he started off well, then pitchers figured out that he couldn't hit breaking stuff, and he had such a hard time with a stiff diet of curves that he richly earned a trip back to the minors. Gallo didn't block Larnach, they thrived at pretty much the same time, carrying the Twins offense early on. Gallo blocked Wallner, keeping him in the minors LOOOOOOONG after it was clear he belonged on the Twins, and as someone else noted, when Wallner locked down a spot, and MAT was holding CF, and Kepler caught fire, there wasn't room any more for Larnach (or really Gallo, either). I don't think Larnach has major trade value; probably pretty similar to Rooker (an add-on to a trade dominated by other players. But I also don't see any reason why the team would trade him; I just think the bloom is off this rose (Trevor should now be in the prime of his career, not still trying to lock down a spot), and I think he is solidly behind Wallner and Kepler in the corners, but not so far you wouldn't keep him as depth. (If I were him, I'd be spending all offseason hitting curveballs, and maybe practicing some at 1B. For either the Twins, or someone else.)
  13. PatPfund
    Great summary! The fact the Twins didn't need to add any pitchers to the 40-man this off-season to protect them from Rule V shows their hitting side is much further along than the arms (who are either too injured, too young, or too fungible to be targets). Another indicator that a trade/FA acquisition (even for depth) of hitter for starting pitcher is likely.
  14. PatPfund
    Comping these two feels like a pretty big stretch; sure they both have power, but... One is at the end of his career, has always been miss-or-big-hit at the plate, walks a lot, owns multiple Gold Gloves, and played a position where the Twins ended up shallow at the end due to injuries (1B, which was almost the only reason to keep him around at the end). The other is on the cusp of his MLB career, has pop and patience, hits well from both sides (though not at MLB yet), may have defensive flexibility, but nothing like defensive excellence so far (particularly in OF where Gallo won his awards). Payroll constraints or not, Gallo isn't coming back, and he was already replaced in-season by Matt Wallner to the point he was a late/post season after-thought. Yunior will almost certainly help build a stronger Twins 2024 roster; either directly through his play or through being a trade piece, but either way for his being a very different player than Gallo.
  15. PatPfund
    Because you have to keep a player at MLB all year, and because position benches are so short, the overwhelming number of players picked recently are pitchers (13 of 15 players last year if I counted right). I think we covered the right people, and are taking reasonable gambles on not losing the rest.
  16. PatPfund
    Agree with the room on Julien's value. Agree otherwise with the list, and with the premise that if you want a clear star, you are not getting them by packaging the sweepings of our 40-man (Larnach, Winder, Sands, Moran) or players with a lot of recent injury history (Kirilloff, Miranda), or even players with ups/downs and/or injury (Kepler, Polanco), though some of these might work for lesser deals. It is why I'd keep Polo and Max (and move Jorge toward 1B more than Julien). As to the Caretaker thing, exposing enough of that content to tease prospective buyers and give a sense of what is available behind the paywall is a great way to make sales. To answer one suggestion, there IS actually a Caretaker site within TD. For those who want a low cost option, Silver Caretaker is less than $4.25 a month for year-round professional content about our favorite team, and right now there is a 25% off sale going on. This site is what it is (a place I visit all year, and live on at times of the year), because there are professionals working here in tandem with great fans. That takes money, and unsupported sites are the ones that one day just aren't there. (FYI, I don't work for TD or really know anyone that does. Just love the site.)
  17. PatPfund
    As noted in some comments, this team improved dramatically when they started leaning on the younger players (Julien, Wallner, Lewis), and they should lean into that in the coming season. Plan around Martin being in CF (FYI, RH hitter, patient, steals bases big time). Wait in FA until a CF gets cheap (ideally MAT) and sign them as a mentor/4th OF. Groom Camargo, Polanco and Wallner at 1B (where you also have RH-hitting Miranda healthy and LH Kirilloff starting), play Julien mostly at 2b (his D was probably better than Jorge's near the season's end), keep Kepler in RF (unless a great deal comes for Max or Polo); trade Farmer (who does have value; check out the FA SS position, and some key teams that need 2b/SS). You aren't getting a Lopez-type by trading Farmer or Larnach (a couple I'd shop), but you might score a serviceable arm. The wild card is trading someone like Julien, Lee, Rodriguez, etc for a top starter, but even if don't, staying with in-house solutions and a cheap CF should leave FA money to sign a decent SP or two. (You don't need to "replace" Gray directly if you get healthy and/or improved production from the aggregate roster.)
  18. PatPfund
    It makes for fun speculation, but baseball doesn't really work like this. Next year's Twins will not be just like this year's, so you are not replacing Gray, you are building a competitive overall roster. It may have more balanced offense, a more consistent and better bullpen, and starting pitching not as deep as this year (or deeper depending on adds or trades of improvements by current staff). Given the payroll setup, I'd expect adds to come in trades from strength (like last year) and late organizational depth adds. That last has worked better for the Twins (Castro, Solano) than for pitching, but I'm willing to give this FO a bit more trust this offseason than after the Bundy/Archer/MattyShoe years. (Though I'd like them to concentrate the off-season on arms, where they have both need and where in-season moves are far more expensive than acquiring position players.)
  19. PatPfund
    The Twins should indeed wait, and focus their resources on pitching. I don't see any a real path to Farmer being back (if you are cutting payroll, $6-7 mill for a backup?), plus he would be a good trade chip (SS is thin this offseason). That means you keep Castro free to spell Correa, Lewis, and add a RH bat at times to the OF. Tell Martin to prep for CF (if we have Castro, we don't need another super-utility), and Martin adds another patient bat. If he plays well in the spring take him north. Dude is 25, he was a 5th overall pick, so he isn't being rushed, and frankly I'm freakin' tired of the Twins signing has-beens who just block real prospects (the way Gallo did last year). If Taylor's market cheapens (which it might do) sign him as insurance/mentor/4th OF. If Martin crashes or needs more seasoning, Keirsey and Helman could be other (cheaper, better than retread) options. Byron's days as a main CF are probably done; I just hope he can figure out a way to stay playable even in a reduced role, because last year was brutal after the first 5-6 weeks. OFs are also much easier to get in-season than pitching (Bader was available for a waiver claim), so there are options if it isn't Martin right away.
  20. PatPfund
    If the Twins are serious about cutting payroll, this is where you do it. The Saints OF was so good this year that even after several call-ups (and the release of Mark Contreras essentially for this reason) former Twins "mainstay" Gilberto Celestino had problems staying on the field, and was eventually let go himself. Austin Martin, DeShawn Keirsey, and Michael Helman can all play CF; Martin and Helman hit RH. You traded a staff ace for Martin, a 5th overall pick who just had a great season at AAA. If not now, when? Our need for RH hitters is also over-rated; Miranda, Lewis, Correa, and Buxton all hit RH, and there is great reason to expect the first three to have healthier, more productive years in 2024. (Byron remains a cypher; I hope the latest operation is more effective than last year's, but if his knee has chronic issues, we may have already seen the best we will see there.)
  21. PatPfund
    Lee looks interesting as someone playing a position of need (we don't need a backup CF, we need a starter and I'm not even believing the real backup is Buxton until he can actually play a full game there without immediately going on the IL again). But I expect the Twins to do very little before the end of the year, and then focus resources on pitching (unless they create a new need through trading bat(s) for arm(s)). There are in-house/inexpensive options on the hitting side if resources are slender.
  22. PatPfund
    The Twins just don't do this sort of thing, and frankly for good reason. I do think they will add at least one big upside SP, and it is most likely to be through trade. Ryu or Maeda are more likely in the FA range the Twins live in, and adding a couple arms to create pitching depth worked well last year.
  23. PatPfund
    I agree pretty much with the percentages. Maeda and MAT would be great to have back. I can't really see Solano back until very late (if it turns out a key IF is still hobbled by injury); there are too many replacements (even if Farmer is gone) with Miranda, Kirilloff, Castro, maybe Gordon, and possibly Severino (dude co-led the minors in HR, plays Solano's positions, and will have to be added to the 40-man). Guessing they trade for a pitcher, though, which may shift needs depending on who goes.
  24. PatPfund
    Maeda or Ryu at those costs could be done. Gray would be the best, but not at what he'll cost (this past year reeks of outlier in both results and health making three years iffy). Not interested in any hitters floated here or elsewhere so far; the Twins have plenty of right-handed bats who hopefully will see far more, and far better years next year (Lewis, Miranda, Correa, Vasquez, maybe Buxton to name a few). Adding a temp player just makes for roadblocks for longer term solutions (see Gallo, Joey).
  25. PatPfund
    Let the fun planning begin (on an excellent base of kNelson Knowledge)! I'd be protecting the top 4 on MiLB player list for sure. Used to have big hopes for Winder, but he (and Sands) have looked pretty fungible the last two years; some nice moments, but pretty replaceable. I expect (as they have recently) the Twins will pursue an SP through the trade route, especially early. Any FAs are likely to be later "value" adds if someone's market isn't as hot as expected. (Which is good since there is a surplus on the position side. Might be a stinger like Wallner or Julien, though, instead of Polanco or Kepler as the lure of youth rules.) I guess I also see Bryon as a bench player right now, and not even a half-time CF until he shows he can do it. And it has been years. There is at least one former Gold-Glover coming off a great defensive year and a career high HR season, that they could talk to.
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