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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    Man, if Buxton can play defense, and hit off healthy knees, this IS a great core with several other pieces (Miranda, Kirilloff, Julien, Jeffers, Vasquez, Wallner, Kepler) who could make it a great team with healthy productive years. But I'll remain skeptical about Byron in the field until I see it on back-to-back days. You can tell he is aching for it, and that will lead to positive buzz, but that buzz has faltered repeatedly in the face of actual playing time the past couple years. Double my skepticism if the Twins hold Buxton out of Spring Training games (especially with lame excuses of the sort that turned out to be deceptive for several players last spring).
  2. PatPfund
    The Keith Law piece was bizarre as the OP said. I pretty much assumed he put it together under time pressure, or in moments of distraction, because there really is no other excuse (other than incompetence which doesn't apply to Law) for putting together a piece on the rotation that mentions Balazovic, but skips any mention of Paddack, and refers to Varland as a "former starter' (when he was a rookie starter converted to RP strictly for the playoffs). Law made it worse by his defenses in the comments; instead just saying something like 'my bad' he tried to make a case for not mentioning Paddack. A really stupid case implying no one could consider Paddack as an MLB starter (he has 65 MLB starts) while mentioning Balazovic (who has ZERO MLB starts and is closer to being DFA'd than starting '24 in the Twins rotation). The OP's point is that Paddack is the Maeda next year is apt. I also like Varland's chances to improve; he was a rookie, so there is room, and he seems to be a driven young man, so I suspect the effort won't be lacking. And yep, it still leaves the Twins needing a couple more SP arms, because injuries are part of the game, and even if Ober is less restricted inning-wise, Paddack will have limits.
  3. PatPfund
    Great information with one key missing part of the '23 recap; Correa was put on IL for a couple weeks leading into his playoff resurgence. That strategy should have been tried a few times during the regular season as well. I too have had plantar fasciitis and while long term rest is the best cure, it is an inflammation that can controlled with shorter chunks of time off. Hopefully Carlos modifies his notoriously intense off-season work to show up in better health next spring. (And hopefully his protegé Jose Miranda does likewise, and maybe is a bit less "sexy", but more baseball healthy?) We've already broken away from the most pathetic playoff record in North American sports, and nabbed a playoff series win in the Correa era. I'm fine with the contract so far.
  4. PatPfund
    I'd float Trivino a Keuchel-like deal; one year minor league deal with player opt-outs if he isn't called up by something like August 15th and/or the playoff roster deadline. It lets the pitcher rehab in an organization that just did the same for Keuchel and Paddack, and lets him essentially try out for a bigger contract. For the Twins it is a useful chance to add a good arm for the stretch run when injuries often pare the roster, and at little cost if it doesn't work. But like Keuchel, this is a background move for depth not a key strategy, and I really doubt the team wants to commit to second year to a rehab arm when next year's salary crunch looms. Guess the others could work (or not); they don't fire me up, but neither did Brock Stewart, and that worked out pretty well.
  5. PatPfund
    There is a good reason contending teams don't take Rule V players; they can't afford to lose games just to hang on to someone who might be good in a couple years. And while you might (might) be able to hide a reliever without it costing you too much, there is absolutely no way to hide a position player with today's short bench. And yes, there is a cost to picking players like these, then cutting them in camp if (when) they don't work out. You are required to put them on your 40-man, and keep them there, which means you need to cut someone to make space (like Jair Camargo who has a cannon and back-to-back 20 HR seasons if you pick up some no-hit catcher? or Jose Miranda whose MiLB stats dwarf any of the position players named here, and has already been a potent MLB bat when healthy?), or you pass up on someone like Solano or MAT because your roster is already full of another organization's busted dreams? No thanks.
  6. PatPfund
    I started as a "No! Too many...", but you make a good case. I suspect Julien will be the number one ask if the Twins go looking for a frontline starter, and if that happened, and Farmer and Polanco also get shipped, Anderson would be an intriguing stopgap for Lee, etc., but I'm guessing someone with a more immediate fit will jump on Anderson before the Twins would make all of those moves.
  7. PatPfund
    I'm not really fired up to send prospects and/or pitching for a CF. Especially when there is likely to be a veteran of near or better quality available fairly cheap on the FA market (like MAT), and a couple potential prospects on the Saints (Martin in particular).
  8. PatPfund
    I trust them fairly well, though I fully trust that they will do what they want regardless of my trust!
  9. PatPfund
    Great summary of the off-season so far, though I am not bummed out at all by the payroll situation. A) the cut in payroll may not even be true (the Twins are a pretty taut ship to be "leaking" such a strategic information; I suspect layers of strategy in play). Also, now is not 2024 (when streaming/TV revenue is likely to be resolved into something more concrete to plan around.) B) Even if payroll cuts happen, all it really means is we might be spared $10 million contracts on reclamation position player projects like Joey Gallo, and that we will likely lean heavily on internal solutions for many key spots (like C with Camargo, 2nd and 3rd with full seasons of Julien and Lewis, 1B with Kirilloff and Miranda, and maybe CF with Martin). That should leave plenty of money to pursue a free agent arm (not from the top tier), and one through trade; probably one we haven't even thought of yet. It also leaves room to add complementary professionals late to supplement the roster or help replace any players traded away (players like MAT or Solano still available in Jan/Feb). Who knows, maybe they even figure out a way to get something from Byron! (Two weeks active, followed by two weeks on IL? All season long?) The most exciting part of 2023 came when the Twins started leaning into their youth movement, and that part of the team is still (so far) intact for 2024, and along with it my excitement (so far) for next season.
  10. PatPfund
    Love the idea! Especially if it means we never have to see the gutsy, but defensively challenged (at least in this position) Polanco at 3B.
  11. PatPfund
    Yeah, well except for the part where Royce has shown no interest in the position since tearing his knee up out there, and the team isn't pushing him to do it, it sounds like a great plan. (To fill up discussion threads)
  12. PatPfund
    I agree this would be like 2020 when the Twins were dominant offensively, had definite pitching needs, and chose more offense. This team just lost 40% of its starting rotation to free agency, and should have two of its most potent young (aka affordable) bats available at 1B (LH) Kirilloff (whose injury was blessedly NOT wrist related), and (RH) Miranda. Pitching is going to cost in money and/or prospects, and the fact we only added young position players to the 40-man doesn't exactly scream our system will supply the SPs. (Frankly, if we keep Polanco, I'd like to see him at 1B. He could use the position flexibility, and while I applaud his guts at 3B, if I never see him play there again that would be just fine.)
  13. PatPfund
    As a few have refreshingly noted, the supposed OF 'surplus' doesn't exist. Sure it is better than last year when things got so bad Gilberto Celestino was a regular starter (a guy who struggled to start in St Paul this year and has since been released). But right now we have Wallner, Kepler, and a bunch of question marks (Gordon? Castro? Larnach? Martin? Keirsey? Re-sing MAT? Another FA or trade person?) Which doesn't mean you don't trade Kepler; the Twins should explore the market and make the move that best helps for next year. We could definitely use second-half-Max at $10mill next year, but if he can fetch higher value, then do it. (Wallner can go to RF; Kirilloff, the Question Marks and any signees can duke it out for CF/LF both in Spring Training and/or in St Paul. But trading Max likely means adding another vet, so you have to factor that in.) And please just say no to Cortes. I laughed out loud at the 'slot right behind Lopez' nonsense. Last year he would have slotted in right behind Randy Dobnak in AAA. We can sign better lower tier FAs.
  14. PatPfund
    Do we really need a RH bat? All three of our catchers are RH. Royce Lewis is RH. Kyle Farmer is RH. Austin Martin is RH. Correa is RH. Miranda is RH. Buxton is RH. Polanco, Castro and Severino are switch hitters. The OF is the only place mostly LH, and re-signing MAT adds a Gold Glove RH hitter. At the trade deadline we were missing Buxton, Miranda and Lewis, and Correa was at career lows. Martin and Severino weren't on the edge of MLB. But things have changed including the payroll budget (and the real potential at AAA). If the Twins are serious about competing and holding a payroll line, they need to avoid adding an expensive block to inner talent a la Joey Gallo, and focus resources on the real need(s) in the pitching rotation.
  15. PatPfund
    I'm mystified as to why a guy who couldn't make our rotation last year would be worth more than our everyday RF coming off his best half-season in years (and who would be pulling balls into that short porch all year in the Bronx). Almost as mystified as how "backend" prospect toss-in possibilities include our 4th, 6th, 8th, 12th, or 18th prospects. I'd rather just re-sign Maeda who will likely be better than Nestor next year. Or try SWR who will probably be better than Nestor next year. (Cortes would be walking back down the Mahle/Matty Shoe/Dylan Bundy/Chris Archer trail. Please, no.)
  16. PatPfund
    Nope. The Twins have in-house solutions at 1B (Kirilloff won a Player of the Month while healthy last year, and the last time Miranda was healthy, he was one of the most dangerous bats in the lineup). And Alonso is a pure rental. I don't think Rodriguez is untouchable at all, but I think the Twins aren't shipping prime prospects out for anything but pitching this offseason.
  17. PatPfund
    This article seems a bit over the top for this early in the off-season. The veteran help cited in the OP (Farmer, Solano, Taylor) combined to make about what Gallo did all on his own, so there is plenty of room to add veteran depth even in the reduced budget. And plenty of time to do so before Spring Training.
  18. PatPfund
    None of the hitters seem like they could even make the current roster except maybe Matthews, and the pitchers other than Woodruff are the type you sign a bit before Spring Training for pennies as roster depth. Woodruff won't pitch at all next year, and may be iffy to ever be good again, so unless the deal is cheap for '25 (when the Twins committed payroll balloons) I'd avoid him as well.
  19. PatPfund
    Tough room when you win a league MVP, and get dumped on all over the comments. @DocBauer is correct; it isn't a shock somebody in A ball has things to work on to get to MLB, it is the whole reason you have A (and AA and AAA) ball. My biggest chuckle from the OP was the list of MLB players "blocking" a very young prospect. Byron hasn't played OF in about 2 years, and Larnach needs to make his own improvements, or he might not be playing baseball in a few years when Kala'i could be expected to arrive. And it's just foolish to look at the current MLB roster when discussing an A level prospect; you simply try to develop as many as you can, and skill and/or trades will work through any 'blocks' you tried to predict 3 years ahead of time.
  20. PatPfund
    Guess I'd tender all of the seven not traded to keep the trade options open. Not just that you might trade these players, but that you would need the depth to fill in if others are traded (Polo? Miranda? Wallner? Julien? Larnach? Kepler? Lee? Trade almost any of them, or more than one for a pitcher, and the depth chart shuffles.) Most are also pretty cheap, and if you waive someone (like Gordon), and someone claims them (and their pay) you are no worse off than if you non-tender.
  21. PatPfund
    I think the OP is essentially correct; 2023 was Larnach's big chance, he started off well, then pitchers figured out that he couldn't hit breaking stuff, and he had such a hard time with a stiff diet of curves that he richly earned a trip back to the minors. Gallo didn't block Larnach, they thrived at pretty much the same time, carrying the Twins offense early on. Gallo blocked Wallner, keeping him in the minors LOOOOOOONG after it was clear he belonged on the Twins, and as someone else noted, when Wallner locked down a spot, and MAT was holding CF, and Kepler caught fire, there wasn't room any more for Larnach (or really Gallo, either). I don't think Larnach has major trade value; probably pretty similar to Rooker (an add-on to a trade dominated by other players. But I also don't see any reason why the team would trade him; I just think the bloom is off this rose (Trevor should now be in the prime of his career, not still trying to lock down a spot), and I think he is solidly behind Wallner and Kepler in the corners, but not so far you wouldn't keep him as depth. (If I were him, I'd be spending all offseason hitting curveballs, and maybe practicing some at 1B. For either the Twins, or someone else.)
  22. PatPfund
    Great summary! The fact the Twins didn't need to add any pitchers to the 40-man this off-season to protect them from Rule V shows their hitting side is much further along than the arms (who are either too injured, too young, or too fungible to be targets). Another indicator that a trade/FA acquisition (even for depth) of hitter for starting pitcher is likely.
  23. PatPfund
    Comping these two feels like a pretty big stretch; sure they both have power, but... One is at the end of his career, has always been miss-or-big-hit at the plate, walks a lot, owns multiple Gold Gloves, and played a position where the Twins ended up shallow at the end due to injuries (1B, which was almost the only reason to keep him around at the end). The other is on the cusp of his MLB career, has pop and patience, hits well from both sides (though not at MLB yet), may have defensive flexibility, but nothing like defensive excellence so far (particularly in OF where Gallo won his awards). Payroll constraints or not, Gallo isn't coming back, and he was already replaced in-season by Matt Wallner to the point he was a late/post season after-thought. Yunior will almost certainly help build a stronger Twins 2024 roster; either directly through his play or through being a trade piece, but either way for his being a very different player than Gallo.
  24. PatPfund
    Because you have to keep a player at MLB all year, and because position benches are so short, the overwhelming number of players picked recently are pitchers (13 of 15 players last year if I counted right). I think we covered the right people, and are taking reasonable gambles on not losing the rest.
  25. PatPfund
    Agree with the room on Julien's value. Agree otherwise with the list, and with the premise that if you want a clear star, you are not getting them by packaging the sweepings of our 40-man (Larnach, Winder, Sands, Moran) or players with a lot of recent injury history (Kirilloff, Miranda), or even players with ups/downs and/or injury (Kepler, Polanco), though some of these might work for lesser deals. It is why I'd keep Polo and Max (and move Jorge toward 1B more than Julien). As to the Caretaker thing, exposing enough of that content to tease prospective buyers and give a sense of what is available behind the paywall is a great way to make sales. To answer one suggestion, there IS actually a Caretaker site within TD. For those who want a low cost option, Silver Caretaker is less than $4.25 a month for year-round professional content about our favorite team, and right now there is a 25% off sale going on. This site is what it is (a place I visit all year, and live on at times of the year), because there are professionals working here in tandem with great fans. That takes money, and unsupported sites are the ones that one day just aren't there. (FYI, I don't work for TD or really know anyone that does. Just love the site.)
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