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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    What was irritating about that bit was the lack of recognition on what a big swing that would be. Winning the division by more than 5 games when you're 4 games back, means making up 10 games in the standings. Ten! That makes it a fairly outrageous statement, essentially saying the Twins will collapse while the seriously under-achieving White Sox will go on a real run. But instead of commenting on that aspect or explaining what it means, Rosenthal simply prints it at face value from an anonymous source, then defends it in the comments when challenged by saying "I heard it from a baseball official I trust more than you!" That's just crappy writing and bad journalism. White Sox might still win the division: Twins are scuffling, with a below average bullpen unable to hold up with a rotation that struggles to go deep in games and has had some rough efforts lately. Chicago has quite a bit of a talent and better top-end rotation (and if Giolito gets back on track, maybe more depth...but Cueto is also likely a small sample size waiting on regression and/or injury, so it might be a wash), but also has some gaping holes in their lineup and a brutally bad defense. The other laughable bit that came out of that article had the twins losing the division because of their "lack of offense at catcher", when Chicago is running out McGuire (OPS+ of 58) and Grandal (OPS+ of 63) and Cleveland has Hedges (OPS+ of 49) and Maile (OPS+ of 67). Twins may be down Jeffers (OPS+ of 91), but Sanchez is now the primary catcher with an OPS+ of 92. Maybe, just maybe a professional journalist should lend a critical eye against his sources, especially if he's going to print their anonymous opinions. Doesn't mean the twins are going to win the division: Cle might still pull it off, but there's very little to say for sure that they're going to out-play the twins (Cle still has holes on offense, their starting pitching hasn't performed much better, and their bullpen isn't anything to write home about). but the idea that they'll win the division because the twins don't have enough offense at catcher is pretty laughable.
  2. jmlease1
    I still don't think they'll consider his option, and Rosario's performance after the NLCS is exactly why. Eddie's been terrible and injured ever since that brief explosion, and now Atlanta is on the hook for next season with him at $9M (and a team option for 2024 that they'll almost certainly decline). Atlanta overreacted to a short hot streak and the glow of a World Series title (even though Rosario wasn't all that good in the WS itself) and it hasn't worked well for them. Maybe Eddie gets how again in August (he was not good in July after coming back from the injury) but it seems highly unlikely that he'll be worth the $9M they're paying him. I'm hoping Sano goes on a tear and gives the team a lift as a power bat who draws a bunch of walks. He's a fine fit to DH and back up 1B right now, and hopefully can fit in to a lineup where he's not going to be playing every day. but even if he has a Rosario-esque run, I think the Twins will pay the buyout and move on, with Arraez & Kirilloff as the primary 1Bs next season. The roster crunch is real for position players and even with an amazing late season run, the price is too high and the risk too significant to roll it back with Sano. I think the twins made the right decision in sending Celestino down: I like him a lot as a player and I think eventually he'll be a great fit as a 4th OF with all of our LH OF bats, his ability to play a quality CF, etc. But right now he's scuffling at the plate, has an option, and Gordon can step in to his shoes for now.
  3. jmlease1
    Cavaco still might have a chance, but Sabato continues to disappoint. It's nice that he's having a decent July, but his season is poor, especially for a 23 year-old in A+. Too many Ks, not enough contact, no real positional flexibility...he's going to need a monster second half to be considered anything other than a disappointment. Cavaco certainly hasn't lived up to his draft slot, but he was also really hurt by the lack of a development year because of the pandemic. If he were 20 and playing like this in the FSL we'd be talking about his tools and his potential a heck of a lot more. He's definitely still got a lot of work to do to get on track again, but he's also got the tools to do it. Other than a 22 game stretch last season in Cedar Rapids, Sabato simply hasn't hit as a pro, and he doesn't have a lot else to fall back on. If he can't make contact in A-ball, I don't see him doing it in AA or higher, and his power doesn't mean anything if he never touches it. You have to wonder if all those walks he collected in Ft. Myers was really more a matter of facing teenagers who couldn't control their stuff than a superior batting eye. CES is having the kind of performance I think we expected from Sabato. He's a college hitter who has come in and swung the bat with authority. Hopefully he finishes the year strong at AA and lines himself up for another promotion.
  4. jmlease1
    Twins know how to get well against the Tigers this year. And any road win is a good win. I also recall that at the start of the season a lot of people were picking the Tigers to be a quality team this year, which is a reminder that it's not that easy to go from being a bad team to a good one (and makes the Twins rebound a pretty great one). Miranda is looking like the hitter we hoped he'd be at the plate. His first month was pretty rough, but he broke out on May 20 and has been hitting ever since. It would be nice to see him take a few more walks and rack fewer Ks, but overall he's doing just fine in his first chance at MLB. Can he defend well enough to hold down 3B full-time next season? Hope Kepler isn't seriously hurt. Toe injuries are weird: it seems like no big deal until you get one and then it messes everything up. There's not all that much you can do about them except wait for them to heal, and it's easy to accidentally ding it again while healing.
  5. jmlease1
    Balazovic has really disappointed this season. Wonder what's going on there: is this residual injury, struggles to get back into form because of the injuries, inability to command a 3rd pitch, or a young pitcher getting his butt kicked at a higher level? He showed so much talent in the lower levels that it's hard to accept that he's gone to crap this way...but sometimes guys bust when they get to AAA. Really hoping he finds a way to get it together in the second half, but he's been bad all year. Steer is continuing to do a nice job in AAA. The power plays, he's showing good patience, and he's got to have raised his stock with more than just Twins fans. Wallner is struggling a little bit in AAA, but it's early yet and I'm encouraged that he's not just racking up a bazillion Ks as he adjusts to the new level.
  6. jmlease1
    Trading Correa would be giving up on the season, which would be a very ugly look for a team in first place, even if the divisional lead has shrunk. Particularly with Lewis out for the year. We'll see where Correa ends up by the end of the season, but right now he's at 2.3 bWAR through 70 games. That's behind his previous pace, but still all-star caliber. I usually see WAR being valued at $7-8M per WAR; at that price & this pace, Correa could easily finish the season having been worth $35M. He's been terrific at the plate, as good as last season (same 131 OPS+). Defensive metrics say he hasn't been as good in the field, eye test says he's awesome out there (IMHO), reality is probably somewhere in the middle. I've loved having him on this team. We'll see what happens after the season after the season, but if the Twins want to make the playoffs, you need to keep Correa. And I think that any time you can make the playoffs in baseball you should try to make the playoffs. Because anything can happen in a series.
  7. jmlease1
    The underwhelming performance by some of the Twins prospects (especially pitching) certain does harm their trade capital, but especially for guys that are still in lower levels, I'm not sure how much an injury necessarily hurts the status of some of these prospects? I'm not sure I see the twins getting starting pitching help. More likely to see 1-2 relief arms, IMHO...which I'm not opposed to. Despite some recent struggles from the rotation, I still don't think we're too badly off there, but finding some reliable relief help is a more pressing need. It's also more in budget, in terms of what we're willing/able to give up. Twins have a good amount of depth in the system to move a couple of lesser prospects for expiring relief help (possibly paired by a 40-man pending reject and some salary relief?).
  8. jmlease1
    Because SS is still probably the most important position player on a team. While there are a bunch of terrific ones in MLB right now, there still aren't enough to go around, so having one is a big asset. Even if you're set at SS, which the twins might be if Correa comes back (unlikely), or Lewis is the real deal (possible, but not a certainty), having an elite prospect at SS is a significant trade asset. And just because you think you've got SS figured out in the short term, doesn't mean that in 3 years things will have worked out as planned. Can't predict injuries, so having depth at critical positions is huge. (last season at CF is a good example of this; we had to throw a lot of guys in there out of position or before they were ready because we were a little thin behind Buxton) The other thing is, tons of guys don't stick at SS even if they were drafted there and become quality MLB players. If you're good enough/athletic enough to be drafted as a SS, then those skills often translate if you have to shift to a new position, whether it's 2B, 3B, or OF. It's a not a stupid question at all, though.
  9. jmlease1
    Don't be too hard on yourself for Valencia; he had a decent career including several very good seasons...just not in MN after that rookie campaign. He might not have become a star, but used properly he was a useful MLB player, and certainly not a bust.
  10. jmlease1
    All reasonable points. I see Miranda as being the likely full-time 3B next season, Polanco as being the full-time 2B again, and I have no idea how to even classify Arraez other than "hitter", but he does need a non-OF spot. Gordon is a useful player, but he's not going to block anyone in the future. (JMO) Lewis is looking like he really might be the SS of the future, and we need one. Steer maybe slots into the Miranda's current role for next year? Everyone else AA and below has to prove it still, but if they're really kicking butt and demanding promotion and playing time...well, either they push out someone above them or serve as assets in a trade. Considering how the filter usually works, it's a little unusual that we end up with too many starting quality guys at the same time; injuries often take care of the problem if nothing else. Middle INF usually can slide out to other positions so long as they can hit enough, and they're not hitting they're unlikely to be creating a logjam? Catcher is the one area where it's an issue and the organization needs to be careful to ensure they are drafting to support it, because I don't think you can shift too many guys down there. But otherwise, I'm still mostly on a "best player/prospect available" train. (You 100% right on Sabato, who is increasingly looking like a bust.)
  11. jmlease1
    Do we really have a glut of utility guys, though? Maybe at the MLB/AAA level, but in 2-3 years, who knows? Of course, I'm guessing the Twins think that Schobel has a higher ceiling than that. If he really hits then he could be awfully interesting. I do think a player like him (again, if he hits) has a lot of flexibility to find a slot on the team going forward. I tend to not worry as much about where a guy might slot positionally most of the time when drafting, because you never really know where someone might end up. (The exception is catcher; trying to recall the last guy that wasn't drafted as a catcher who then shifted successfully to the position in the minors, and I'm stumped.)
  12. jmlease1
    Nice for Matt Wallner to have a big HR at the Futures Game. He really does have prodigious power. Sano is abusing minor league pitching. (As he should) I think he's back with the MLB club after the all-star break and Celestino goes down. Celestino has not been hitting much lately and we can backup CF/cover Buxton's rest with Gordon and Kepler for now. Let Celestino slide back down to Saint Paul, get himself back on a good program hitting, and be ready in case of injury. It'll be interesting to see if Sano can be a dangerous power bat again or just a K-machine, but he'll slot in as a DH again I think. (I suspect Jeffers & Sanchez will give up some ABs and not get much DH run now?)
  13. jmlease1
    Seems a little harsh. I was at the game, and literally no one in the section was thinking Urshela deserved an error yesterday. He didn't come up with a superior play, but none of those were routine. Twins defense wasn't bad in this game, but they didn't have a lot of extra, gold-glove quality play when they had some opportunities. (Kepler not hanging on to a deep fly where he bounced off the wall is another example; a better read and he settles under that one I think, but it wasn't an easy play...just one that we've seen him make before) Correa was the defensive stalwart if anyone. Lovely day for a game and great to see Kaat honored. Really wish we could have turned another DP, because it's just so much fun to watch it live and have a whole bunch of people cheering "One...two!" all at the same time.
  14. jmlease1
    I think it's more than fair to have skepticism about Wallner's ultimate potential, because that K-rate is kinda scary. It's been my worry about him since he arrived: the contact he makes is terrific, but will he make enough of it to be a MLB player? Jury's still out on that one, but he keeps producing so when the average is that good, the OPS is that high, I guess we should not worry too much if he's trading weak grounders to SS for a additional K's? The other night, he went 0-5 with 4 K's, last night he bangs out a 4-4 day with a BB and a Sac Fly. CES has some similar "oh god, I wish he didn't K so much" fears from me, but my goodness, he's kicked butt since joining the franchise. The K-rate is less than Wallner's at least, and he's hitting a ton. You could write off last year's work as Small Sample Size or him being a college player coming in to low-A, but it's getting harder and harder. If they jump Wallner up, and I could see CES moving in to AA, which would be great to see. If he can keep rolling after a level-up, he might be the steal of the draft (and the Twins had a pretty good 2021 draft already i think: turned Chase Petty into Sonny Gray, Miller looks promising, Hajjar has shown impressive ability to miss bats, and Cade Povich looks intriguing as well)
  15. jmlease1
    I was fooled by Romero too. Thought for sure he was going to be a power arm out of the twins bullpen for years. Whoops! I was convinced that he just needed a little time to settle in and things would be great, that he'd shown enough as a starter that he could make the transition. Nope, nope, and nope. The others on the list i don't think I was ever that attached to. They kinda fell into the "hey, maybe this guy can turn out to be somebody!" bucket where I was rooting for them, but not necessarily all that convinced. Chris Parmelee, on the other hand...I jumped all over that hype train, thought he was going to take over for Cuddyer and we wouldn't miss a beat. but I'm grateful to Mr. Parmelee, who taught me to be skeptical of September call-ups and Small Sample Size.
  16. jmlease1
    I'd just like to note that it's ridiculous for the manager to have to come out and argue the umpire into suspending the game when the rain is coming done in sheets, fans are fleeing the stands, hitters can't grip the bat, and even on tv it's getting hard to see because it's bucketing so hard. And because they waited so long, the infield looked wrecked afterwards. I doubt it had any significant impact on the result, but good grief. bad job by the umps on that one.
  17. jmlease1
    Wallner just keeps on rolling. It's going to be fun to see if he can keep mashing at AAA, but he's definitely put himself into the conversation for a MLB role as early as next season...or a trade chip to shore up this year's squad. It's interesting to track his progress in relation to Aaron Sabato: two big power bats, one from the left and one from the right. Sabato was always a 1B/DH, but a lot of people thought Wallner might end up there too. Sabato really has struggled to make contact in pro baseball, and while that's been a concern for wallner with his many many Ks...he's still making enough contact and punishing the ball when he does. Wallner has also shown he should be able to stick in the OF for at least a few years and with his arm could be a solid contributor with enough range to be a good RF. Wallner is looking like a guy with a MLB future...and Sabato is looking like a bust. I think Wallner moves up after the Futures game (which is fine). The next question is going to be whether the team looks at him as a key part of the next wave of prospects or as a trade chit to get what they need for a title run? I have a feeling that either Wallner or Steer may be part of a deadline deal this year. One more wallner fact: his 21 HRs this season for Wichita is the most for any Twins AA affiliate since Brent Rooker in 2018. Rooker needed 130 games to get to 22 dingers. Wallner has 21 in 76 games. My goodness.
  18. jmlease1
    Runs are important. RBIs aren't all that interesting or informative as a stat.
  19. jmlease1
    He's had a really disappointing year. I know he was battling an injury early (knee?) and I'm guessing adjusting to that has thrown off his mechanics, but it's still not great. This is why you need 10 good prospects to find 5 (3?) guys to fill a rotation. Still too early to give up on him, because the talent is there, but he was someone we all thought was going to be pushing for a shot in MLB this season and right now it looks like he'll never see Target Field this year. Another fine outing for Wallner, guess being named to the Futures Game didn't get in his head! Pleased to see his success.
  20. jmlease1
    Fine choices based on the Twins system right now. Both are moving up quickly and performing well and should do fine at the game. Nice for them to both get the exposure that comes from it. (won't help them much for prospect lists most of which will ding them significantly for being 24, but that's a they problem not a we problem.)
  21. jmlease1
    No one click baits like Cody.
  22. jmlease1
    I think this zeroes in on where his problem is. Right now his BB/9 is twice his career average and he's been homer-happy the last two years. The command is what's getting him in trouble: he's not just piling up walks, he's also at a point right now where he isn't able to consistently throw a strike without grooving a pitch. So he's walking guys and running up 3-ball counts and then he drops one middle-middle (and probably taken a bit off it to make sure he can locate) and it gets blasted. That said, I do think he's salvageable, you look at his k-rate and you can see that he's someone who can get batters out. If he gets the walk rate back down, suddenly he starts looking a lot more like Jax, and less like Duffey. He needs to be in a lower leverage role for a while if possible and hopefully the coaching staff can work with him to find his command again.
  23. jmlease1
    Kirilloff sure looks like he's past his problems with the wrist. He's hitting like we hoped again, and I think he's going to be a force in the lineup for the rest of the year. (If he stays healthy. really hoping his wrist issues are in the past and he gets to have a good run of health) Kopech had been pitching pretty well for the ChiSox, so it was good to see the Twins handle him. You have to wonder if the first inning struggles impacted his effectiveness even though he wriggled out of the jam. I'm not ready to write-off the ChiSox yet; they're starting to get healthy again (Jiminez could be a difference-maker, a healthy Grandal could be a difference-maker...) and they still have a lot of pitching talent so you never know. But they're not playing well and I don't think LaRussa is going to help (having the home crowd chant "Fire Tony" can't be good). Would love to see the sweep.
  24. jmlease1
    He's done well, I think. I'm still a little worried about the K's (wish he'd be under 25% at AA), but he's also taking more walks this year and his arm makes him more of an asset in the OF than a lot of the "three true outcomes" guys. He took his opportunity in the AFL and ran with it. Do we know anything more about his shaky start to the year? I wonder if he was battling an injury or something? because he has been a different player from late-April on.
  25. jmlease1
    Why does it seem like every time Rocco makes a decision people don't like they use the "computer printouts" line or something similar? This felt like a gut level decision to me. On the one hand, Bundy struggles third time through; on the other, his pitch count was low and his breaking stuff was as good as it's been all year. But there was also some loud contact that turned into outs because the ball was hit right at someone, including some fine defensive plays (i.e., Urshela's snag of a sure hit) and the game was tight and close. With their best bullpen pieces rested, it sure looked like a decision to go for the win. the 10th inning outburst was very nice to see; the double plays in the first two innings were less great. Bundy might have gotten another inning or two if the offense had given him a 4 run lead... Luis Arraez is great. Boy is he fun to watch hit.
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