jmlease1

I'm not sure he could hold up there either. With his hip and other injuries I just don't see him as a guy who can sit out in the bullpen and then fairly quickly get ready to pitch.

I hope they start Laweryson at AAA. This is his age 25 season, and I'm not sure there's much to be gained by having him beat up on AA hitters again. He's an interesting case since he's not a big velocity guy, and it's unclear whether he's a starter or reliever even now? Cavaco needs to get it going, but he does have tools. He might be another kid who can't apply them to baseball, but it'll be interesting to see if he a late bloomer who figures it out or a bust.

I think this is right in terms of what the front office's philosophy is generally in making trades. They're not looking to deal prospects for rentals because they know they have to be judicious when they send out prospect capital. developing talent internally is always going to be important to the long-term success of the franchise. I think they want long-term sustained success too, not sudden success followed by rapid tear downs. I don't think it is a contradiction: they often look to supplement the roster with veterans on 1 year deals (or 1 year with a team option, etc) in free agency. With trades, they generally don't send out prospects for rentals, but for players that can help immediately (in theory) and for at least another year. The Correa move was highly unusual i terms of signing a free agent to a long-term deal, but at the same time, it sort of falls into the bucket of "extending our own guys", where they are more willing to go long term on players they already know. The Donaldson deal was a bit of an aberration; they had money to spend, a hole to fill, and took a risk on a player in free agency because they looked at the team and tried to capitalize on a window. Coming off a 101 win season, it made sense. I think it's important to realize that while this FO had some patterns and principles that they adhere to, they're not dogmatic about it either. there will be exceptions if they think they can find value or an advantage for the team.

Need to be more specific when you say you don't trust "Lopez": Pablo or Jorge? I think the people who are so down on Jeffers value need to look at the league a little more broadly: the position is a little thin and there aren't that many teams that have 2 quality catchers. He may not have a great arm, but he does well enough blocking the plate & receiving the ball. Adding Vazquez means we have 2 quality catchers and it's an improvement on the Jeffers/Sanchez/Leon group, since Leon can't hit at all and Sanchez never found his power stroke. figuring out catching depth was a big question after last season and it's hard to say they didn't address it. No, they don't have anyone in the system that's going to be competing for time soon, but Jeffers is under team control for another few years, vazquez is signed for 4 years, so there's time to work on the next generation. SS had to get addressed since Royce won't be available until midseason, and they were able to bring back Correa. Done and done. Farmer is a nice backup with positional flexibility. For the first time in a long time, we don't have to wonder who will play SS for the next several years. I felt like they had depth in the rotation, but needed top end improvement. It's an interesting question as to whether P. Lopez gets there. If he's first half PL, then he definitely passes the "Better Than Sonny Gray" test. If he's second half PL, then...doesn't look like it. So I have to say they did better to make the rotation deeper and more...injury resistant? I don't think they've addressed our weakness against LHP particularly well; the Gallo move isn't where I wanted them to go in the OF, though his career splits aren't bad against LHP. Farmer helps, but it might be asking a lot. Having Garlick be depth in AAA rather than needing to be counted on all season is good, and better health generally will help. The bullpen looks a bit better than the start of last season: we know what Duran can do, rather than hope it'll work. Jax showed he could be effective too, and Jorge Lopez certainly has the ability and will likely be better not having to deal with being traded. Thielbar is proven, Moran is talented, and thank god we're not counting on Pagan to be a major contributor. If Alcala gets healthy it looks pretty strong, though I wish they had another guy who could consistently throw 2 innings every 2-3 days. And I really wish they hadn't kept Pagan. Talking themselves into "fixing" him feels like sunk cost fallacy to me, but overall the bullpen looks ok. I think they made several moves that tried to raise the floor and address depth, and that matters. I tend to agree with the Falvey/Levine philosophy of trying to give as few ABs and innings to bad players as possible. I thought they should have looked to move Kepler (especially after adding Gallo), but I definitely agree with the idea of not having to reach so far down into the minors that you're playing your 10th choice in the OF...especially when the 8th or 9th choice is out there too. (hell, the twins got all the way down to 12th pick when they sent Beckham out there and grabbed Billy Hamilton off the street)

I think he still has a future, but he's also showed that he needs work on his game, including the mental side of it. There's still a lot of talent there, but necessity pulled him up the majors long before he was really ready for it and the interruptions in developmental play probably didn't help him very much in his overall evolution as a player. With Taylor in place, there's unlikely to be any pressure for him to be in MLB this season unless he's playing his way up there. Hopefully that gives him the room to work on his swing and approach at the plate, cut down on the mental mistakes in the field and on the bases, and grow as a player. Celestino is still in the Twins plans, I think. A good year in AAA sets him up to be back as the 4th OF in 2024 (when Gallo & Kepler could be gone, Taylor could be gone, and there could be openings in the OF) or be a significant trade piece for a team needing a defender in the OF (maybe Royce Lewis or Austin Martin passes him in the CF ranks). While I'm not all that enthusiastic about Taylor...I can understand the move. It does send a message to Celestino that he has to improve and that's not a bad thing.

Julien has to be on this list. He had a monster year at AA, his hit tool is advanced, he's likely to start the year in AAA and if he's crushing it there, then he'll be looked at as an injury replacement if any of the non-SS guys go down for an extended period of time.

I love a great change-up. So fun to watch. And we've been lucky to see some terrific ones here in Minnesota: Frankie V, Radke, and especially Johan. So I kinda love the fact that Lopez's best out pitch is the change. (It's one of the reasons I can abide Jovani Moran's wildness, because that knee-buckling change is so fun) I'm looking forward to seeing Lopez pitch. If the issue for his second-half slippage is a matter of getting his release point back to a certain spot...that might be easily correctable in spring training, especially if a now-healed ding was helping cause it.

These ideas are mostly driven by people who don't like the state of baseball and don't like the manager and the front office. Sonny Gray complains once about not going deeper in games and suddenly no pitcher will ever sign an extension here because all starters only want to come to a place where they are ridden like Dusty Baker did with the Cubs 20 years ago. You're right: they will let pitchers who can go deeper, go deeper. And the players like Rocco and like playing for him. I'm guessing a lot of them like winning more, so they're not going to fall on their swords for him if the team ain't winning, but there's literally zero signs Rocco has lost the clubhouse.

i think you're right. And the really don't want to see 8-10th choice starting in the OF...

is it, though? they're giving him first shot at 1B, but it's not like the Twins don't have other options to slide in there. Miranda, Kepler, Gallo are all options to play 1B if Kirilloff struggles at the plate or can't stay on the field. I think the pressure on him is more about "we love you mah dude, but if that wrist means you're just a slap-hitting 1B who misses a lot of time every season, then you don't have much of a future." The injury is it's own kind of weight: he's missed significant time on it each of the last 2 seasons and in the minors. If you have an injury that takes you off the field 3 seasons in a row, it's hard to say it's not a chronic issue that will impact your whole career, sadly. because I'm a big fan of Kirilloff. I think if he gets healthy he will be a force at the plate (.280/.330/.475 slash line) ripping line drives and playing an excellent 1B.

well, I'd say his intangibles were great. Good dude, popular with the fans and the team, entertaining style of play, etc. His lack of speed and true position other than "hitter" are pretty tangible. I'm still bummed to see him go, even though I think it's a very reasonable trade. If Kirilloff's wrist is finally right (and it's a big if) though, then I'm pretty excited. His last truly healthy season, he absolutely destroyed A-ball at age 20. Last season (in a small sample) he obliterated AAA pitching, even while rehabbing and trying to get the wrist figured out. he hit pretty well as a rookie in 2021 before the wrist gave out. he holds up fine as a LH hitter against LHP. I've always been a fan.

If we're looking at "who will replace Arraez's production", then Julien is a reasonable player to look at: he's a 2B who isn't particularly accomplished at the position defensively, may need to slide to 1B, and will need to hit to be a regular MLB player and has shown great on-base skills. Julien & Arraez get there differently: Arraez through high batting average, Julien through loads of walks. It's a little tough to directly compare their minor league stops; Arraez came into the system much earlier and hit for average at every opportunity. He also had a significant knee injury, but never stopped getting hits. but Julien has always been at least as good at getting on base as Arraez and his power production has been significantly better. Arraez's best seasons in slugging are still below Julien's worst. Julien hasn't proven it even at AAA yet let alone MLB, but it's not hard to see how he could replicate that production. In terms of profile as a hitter, Martin might be a better comp to Arraez in some ways. Arraez is superior in terms of getting hits and racking up that high BA, but Martin gets on base at a similar clip through more walks and getting hit by pitches. The concern on Martin's ceiling is whether he can hit for enough power...sound familiar? the OPS on both player's age-22 seasons in the minors looks fairly similar. they're different players (Martin never spent a day in A ball, is a better defensive player, and a superior baserunner; the only question Arraez has ever faced about his hit tool is whether he could generate any power with it) but there are some interesting comps there. But again, this is likely why the Twins considered that Arraez's production and roster spot was more replaceable either now or in the near future. there are players in the high minors that profile well for this, even if they get there in different ways.

I don't think Correa is moving off SS in the next 3-4 years. It's going to be interesting to see how everyone fits in with Martin, Julien, Lee, and Lewis knocking on the door and the infield already potentially filled with MLB quality players. But that's a problem I want to have, and why I don't worry about Gallo only being on a one year deal, Kepler close to running his deal out, Polanco close to running his deal out, etc.

Really, really interesting prospect. If he comes back well from TJ, he's got the stuff to be an ace. The fastball plays, the slider is excellent, and the changeup already looks functional with upside and there just aren't that many starters that walk in with a 3 pitch mix that you feel confidence in. He's far enough removed from his surgery that his outings this season should actually matter; this isn't a guy who is 9 months to a year removed from his surgery. He should be ready to go, even if he's going to have rust and command challenges from not having pitched games in a long time. I think he'll spend most if not all of the year in Ft. Myers, in part because it's where the team's whole complex is and they'll have all the resources to keep a good watch on him, provide appropriate therapy etc while still letting him pitch a full season of games. If he gets through this season with no major set-backs, I think he's going to move up quickly. of course, I'm Mr. Positivity. But he does that the tools to be great, and would have been a no-doubt top-10 pick if not for the TJ. I think it was a great pick and signing.

I think Joe Mauer is 100% Hall-worthy and should go in on the first ballot. He probably won't, because there's an irritating number of writers (fortunately many of who are finally aging off as voters) who have this "thing" about the first-ballot and it's hard to get in as it is. It will sadly likely cost Mauer some votes. (along with the idiots who won't vote for anyone until they get to vote for Pete Rose or other nonsense).

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/26-man-roster Unless something changes, twins will not be keeping 14 pitchers.

C: 2019, in a walk. garver just raked, even if he only played 93 games 1B: push? Cron wasn't impressive, Kirilloff is coming off a major injury 2B: 2023. Polanco is better than Schoop SS: 2023. Correa is better than 2019 Polanco, who hit less than Correa and isn't nearly the defender 3B: 2019. Miranda could be great, but Sano had a big year. LF: 2023. This was the start of "Overrated Eddie"; not great at the plate and awful in the field. Gallo is better CF: 2023. Buxton wasn't Buxton yet RF: 2019. Kepler had a fluke year, IMHO but it doesn't mean he wasn't great. DH 2019. Nelson Cruz laughed at Father Time. Position players are pretty even head to head...YMMV on the aggregate? Rotation: SP1: 2019 Berrios was excellent, gotta take him over Gray SP2: 2019 Odorizzi had a career year. I think Lopez might be our 32? SP3: 2023 I'll take Ryan over Pineda SP4: 2023 Gibson wasn't that good and Maeda should be better SP5: 2023 Mahle in a walk over Perez (blegh) Bullpen: A little hard to judge? 2019 was very good with its top guys: Rogers, Duffey, and May. but Duran, Lopez, and Jax aren't bad. i think 2023 bullpen is deeper with Thielbar, Moran, and Alcala over Parker (who got cut), Harper, and Romo? It's an interesting argument. They are very different clubs: 2023 has deeper pitching and much better defense. 2019 had a great offense and all the power in the universe. It's important to think about them in context; Rosario's .800 OPS would have looked great in 2022 and might be excellent for a corner OF in 2023, but in the juiced ball year of 2019...it wasn't impressive (OPS+ of 107, worse than Nick Gordon in 2022)

Gallo is an interesting idea. He's a better baserunner than you think, he will see a bunch of pitches, he'll take walks...and after the first inning it's all a scramble anyways. I'd probably lean towards Polanco, who has good on base skills and as a switch hitter balances the lineup on the run. Buxton makes sense if the team intends to use his speed on the bases...which I dearly love to see and recognize it may not be worth the punishment. I'd say no on Kepler unless he shows he can get on base more; .317 is not good enough IMHO. he does see plenty of pitches, but he's also the winner of the annual "Most Likely to Bounce Out Weakly to Second" Award 3 years running...

Don't think we're allowed 14 pitchers any longer? Thought part of the deal (which was put in abeyance due to COVID) for the 26 man rosters was no more than 13 pitchers? Am I wrong about this? I could be wrong about this. (but even if we are allowed, I wouldn't think we'd carry 14 pitchers and we shouldn't.)

because we're not allowed to have 14 pitchers, and adding another starter at the expense of a reliever is likely to leave us short, especially since most of our relievers aren't more than 1 inning guys. It won't hurt Ober to have him start in Saint Paul.

Polanco is a reasonable fit there, although he'd be great in #2 spot as a switch hitter. But there's nothing wrong with a lineup that goes: Polanco Correa Buxton Gallo Kirilloff Miranda Larnach Vazquez Kepler It would be great if Kirilloff is hitting so well you could slide him in to the #3 spot, but he's probably not ready for that. But you don't need to go strictly L-R to protect yourself with the decline of the LOOGY, etc.

Cruz is going into his age 24 season and would need to be added to the 40-man soon, and he's averaged 6 BB/9 in his minor league career. he hasn't dipped below 5.5 BB/9 since he was 18 in rookie league ball. He's likely to be available in the Rule 5 draft soon if you really want him back. Sisk probably will pitch in MLB this season...but will he be effective? His control is pretty rough too, he's going to be 26 and until last season he's been both very wild and very hittable ever since rookie ball. I'm not going to pretend that Taylor is a good hitter (he's not), but he's not Florimon at the plate, who was so bad in his prime that he should have been considered unplayable. I still can't believe we were desperate at SS that he was our primary SS in 2013 but it certainly helps explain why we lost 96 games that year.

Gallo is probably our best defender of the corner OFs, though? Unless Kirilloff shows he's not healthy in spring training, I expect him to be on the MLB roster and 1B seems like the best fit for him. Gordon's not great defensively anywhere, really, but he's functional in a lot of places and has developed a solid hit tool now that he's gotten a little more power in his swing. He's got a lot more value if he can maintain viability in the infield, especially since Farmer is our only other infielder?

Kirilloff is basically going to be playing 1B/DH rather than the OF (he wasn't much out there and might be a superior defender at 1B with consistent work), Larnach is probably the starting DH against RHP, but will certainly get time in the corners when Kepler or Gallo need a break. Gordon will likely find more time in the infield, since Farmer is the only other player we have that can play 2B or 3B. There's likely enough playing time to go around what with the injury potential, but also the desire to keep players fresh. Kepler could still be moved, but the roster is still plenty functional. Dang, the OF defense could be amazing.

Gordon will get time somewhere; he hit well enough last season and can play multiple positions, so they'll find room for his bat. He'll probably get less OF time, but I'm sure they'll use everybody on the roster, especially with only 4 bench spots. He can pinch hit and stay in the game often, and they're going to want to keep everyone rested and fresh.