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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Wallner's August has definitely been encouraging. His splits look a lot more like his usual numbers. His first 6 game set against the Iowa Cubs, he had 2 hits and 3 walks, with no XBHs. Last week's 6 game set against the Iowa Cubs he had 7 hits, 4 walks, and 2 XBHs (including a dinger). It's going to be interesting to see how he finishes the season. If he keeps this up and shows that he can punish AAA pitching, you have to think he'll contend for a spot next season as a RH OF power bat, right?
  2. jmlease1
    Right. I'm trying not to get overly excited (it's a small sample, after all) but he's handled the transition to pro ball wonderfully so far. (including a quick promotion and change of teams!) Keep getting all the hits, Brooks!
  3. jmlease1
    You got to learn your clichés. ?
  4. jmlease1
    Hard to think of a better start for Brooks Lee. I know it's early. I know it's only A-ball. But dang, that pick is looking great right now.
  5. jmlease1
    "I love winning, you know? Like, it beats losing?" A good win. Giants don't look like they're going anywhere this season, but they're not a bad team, and going into the series they had almost the same record as the Twins. Now, the Twins are still in the hunt and the Giants are pretty much cooked. That's a really good series sweep. Nice to see Cave get a big hit; he didn't make much of a play on the ground-rule double (JMO) so that was a big response. Be good if Smeltzer can get comfortable as a 2-3 inning middle reliever.
  6. jmlease1
    Love seeing continued success for Varland. He's really done the work and gone from a lottery ticket to a real prospect. not sure I'd burn his time right now, considering starting pitching isn't really the problem right now and with other pitchers still expected back from injury. But he's positioned himself to contend for a spot in the rotation next year and I hope he keeps pushing. (Right now I'd have next year's rotation starting out the year as Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober but if Varland keeps rolling and Ober struggles to stay healthy, he could push his way in there) The Twins 2019 draft is really turning out well, even with Cavaco doing little to justify his high draft status and Canterino unable to stay healthy (those bastards at Rice should be ashamed). Wallner, Laweryson, Varland, Julien, and Isola all look like guys who will be MLB contributors, and that's not counting Steer & Gipson-Long, who were traded for additional value. Makes me feel good about the team's ability to develop draft picks, especially this was a draft class that lost the 2020 season for development.
  7. jmlease1
    AAA used to be like that, and teams used to jump prospects from AA to MLB in part because they didn't want them exposed to guys that were doing anything to try and get one more shot at The Show (including screwing over a prospect). Teams have definitely done a lot to clean that up and only hang on to minor league lifers when they know they're also going to be good working with the kids and don't tolerate veterans looking for one more shot dumping on the prospects. It makes it more likely they'll have them progress all the way through the system. (and in the twins case, now that AAA is just across town, it's easier for the MLB staff to see someone play live before adding them to the 26-man)
  8. jmlease1
    So, Isola isn't going to be ready for MLB in 2023. Paddack won't be ready for the start of the season (maybe by midseason). Fulmer is a FA, so slotting him in seems premature. Polanco is still under contract...where is he? Kepler is still under contract as well. Team can't carry 14 pitchers next season; MLB rosters will be a max of 13. There's no question the Twins will have room in the budget to add, especially if Correa opts out, but this early roster has a lot of "yeah...no" to it. Julien is a really interesting prospect; I expect him to start next year in AAA and be looked at as an injury replacement early, especially if he shows real positional flexibility and not just "we can put him there, but he's gonna butcher it".
  9. jmlease1
    yeah, there's no one in the system that would be ready to contribute at the MLB level from the prospect ranks and the veteran minor leaguers (what's left of them) aren't any better than what we have up already. we've literally got 4 OF on the IL right now, Nick Gordon had to leave for injury, and if not for injury Royce Lewis would be in the OF as well. we've got 1 first choice OF in the lineup right now (Kepler) who probably isn't fully healthy from the busted toe and is really struggling offensively. At this point, we'd take Brent Rooker back.
  10. jmlease1
    Man, I'd forgotten Dobnak was still with the franchise. Tough break for him, injuries really derailed his chances. It's great to see Martin swiping bases. he could be a real threat as a leadoff man with his on-base skills and ability to get steals, but he really needs to find a little more pop in his bat. Hopefully he finishes the year strong after missing a big chunk of time with an injury. He's going to really tumble in the prospect rankings after this season (unless he really goes nuts the last few weeks, and even then he's going to drop), but it doesn't mean he can't figure it out and be a quality player. Look at Nick Gordon: high draft pick, started out as a highly rated prospect, and then tumbled off the rankings while battling injuries. but he got healthy, kept working, kept developing and has seized his chance this year to be a real asset. Positional flexibility plus a hit tool means a lot. It'll be interesting to see if Martin starts to really grind for it and can make the adjustments to build himself back up after hitting a significant bump in his path.
  11. jmlease1
    I'd say the ejection happened partly because once Rocco knew they were sticking with the "2nd mound visit" decision, he needed to buy time for Sands to warm up...and did exactly that. Sand probably got 10-12 extra pitches while Rocco wasted time and had his say during and post ejection. He wouldn't have been able to buy that time without getting himself tossed, so he did it. I'll happily get started on Altuve. Clearly, what we don't understand is the Sainted Jose of Altuve is not to be thrown a pitch that He does not approve of. Any pitch thrown by a lesser being, such as an opposing pitcher, is to be thrown only in the Approved Places, and never shall it be thrown near the body of the Great Altuve. If one should be so foolish as to actually throw near the body of the Sainted One, then not only shall the Great Altuve be awarded the Base of First, but the Offending Thrower shall then immediately prostrate thy self in front of the Sainted One, and beg His merciful forgiveness (which he is not required to give, but only if he feels the offender is sorrowful enough in his apologia). If the Offending Thrower does not immediately throw himself upon the mercy of the Anointed One, the Great Altuve shall then be permitted to say whatever he wants to the Offending Thrower, with no care to how offensive it may or may not be. Said Offending Thrower may not respond to the Great One's commentary, unless it to be to beg for mercy in offending the Great Altuve. (The is taken directly from the Gospels of Altuve, Book 3, Chapter 2, verse 6-8, printed in the new form by the Houston Astros press) I mean, we really should have known better. Seriously, what a damn baby. The game was 2-0, he was the leadoff batter. No one is throwing at you, the guy just missed his spot inside, you were hanging your ass out over the plate, and it brushed your leg. hells bells, he barely got hit.
  12. jmlease1
    Despite the offense struggling, it was still a lovely night to be at Target Field for a baseball game. Injuries have definitely sapped this team's ability to create runs. Miranda had a tough night, but I'm not going to bag on the rookie too much; he's had a heck of a season to date and will be a quality hitter for this team. There's also some weird stuff going on: Polanco used to be a solid RH hitter against lefties, Sanchez used to be a solid RH hitter against lefties and this season both of them are trash against lefties. Garlick & Jeffers are both injured (and historically hit lefties well). Frankly, we got a lot of guys that were expected to be contributors on the IL right now. Kepler is really disappointing, but I'm guessing that broken toe isn't healed and that sapping any power production. but he's also back to being helpless against lefties (unsurprisingly) and isn't making hard contact when he pulls it. If he can't make hard contact to the pull side and won't go the other way when shifted, he's just not much of an offensive player. The triple play was super fun to see live. Miranda definitely got a little excited over the possibility and overclocked his throw to second, but it was a heck of a play. He's not super comfortable at 1B, but did a good job recovering from not fielding a ball cleanly to still get the out. There was also a communications mix up where he was going for the ball and thought the pitcher was covering and the pitcher wasn't sure if he was supposed to play the ball or the bag, but that's not terrible.
  13. jmlease1
    There has to be a balance on this, or every starter we have is going to be Matt Canterino, Part II. Canterino got to pitch deep into games in college, and racked up significant pitch counts the way many on this site would like, and at the same ages as SWR. Now he's having season-ending surgery and has only pitched 60 innings total in the last 2 seasons. SWR has doubled that and is still pitching this season and is healthy. This was SWR's first start in AAA, and he's only 21. Let's not ruin him like Rice may have wrecked Canterino. Hope Austin Martin is figuring it out at the plate. Injuries are a pain for developing players, and I still haven't given up on him. I think he's got a lot of talent and I'm glad the twins haven't sold low on him. Brooks Lee seems to be doing far in high A, and it's great to see. He's got a nice, advanced approach at the plate and should advance quickly in the organization. Love it.
  14. jmlease1
    I will say it's damn close in my mind for Miranda over Duran. Duran is 3rd in the AL in WPA, which is a pretty meaningful stat, especially for relievers. But I am really impressed with how Miranda has adapted to MLB: he had a rough first month, and since then has been a major force as a hitter and doesn't look like he's slowing down at all. And it's not like teams don't have tape on him now. Any other year, Ryan might be competing, but we've got two other rookies who are really impressing.
  15. jmlease1
    I think it's got to be Miranda. Duran has been great and been a weapon all year, but since May Jose Miranda has been playing not like a team ROY candidate, but a AL ROY candidate. Position players just have more impact on the game, I gotta give it to Miranda. Sure is nice to have both of them playing like fearless veterans, though! Ryan has been good, not great. I'm definitely a fan, but he hasn't dominated like Miranda & Duran have.
  16. jmlease1
    If the contract is right, they will come. the bigger issue the Twins will have on signing frontline pitchers is their disinclination to give long deals to pitchers. How frequently they let a guy face 25-28 hitters and go 6-7 innings just isn't likely to play into it. And for every guy who might be all "screw it, they pull their guys early, Imma go somewhere else" there's going to be at least as many going "hey, these guys might actually keep me healthy and looking good for the next contract too". I'm sorry, this is a non-issue.
  17. jmlease1
    It's good to see Balazovic start to get things together, but he needs to have a good stretch and pile up some innings before my faith will be restored. Congrats to SWR, a pitcher I like a great deal. While i don't expect him to really compete for a rotation spot in training camp, I definitely see him being one of the first call-ups when injuries inevitably strike next season, and I think he has the talent to take that opportunity and never leave. Looking forward to seeing how he does in AAA and might try to get myself to one of his starts! Sabato's slam is nice, but I'm still down on him. Despite giving up significant prospect capital recently, I still don't think he cracks the top 30, which is hugely disappointing. He just doesn't make enough contact for his power to really play, has little to no defensive value, and has twice been promoted more on scholarship than performance. I'm more interested in Alex Isola: can he stick at catcher, can he stay healthy, and is this who he can be as a hitter? He's having an excellent year in AA so far, but it's a fairly small sample. But he feels worth keeping an eye on. Julien had 4 BBs? I think this kid understands the strike zone. He'll be in AAA next year and has developed very nicely. I expect to see him get a chance in MLB next year as well. Love guys that get on base all the time like this, but still rip hits. That 2019 draft is turning out pretty well for the Twins: Steer & Gipson-Long made good trade chips, Wallner is in AAA already along with Varland; Julien, Isola, and Laweryson are all looking good in AA...and that's with Cavaco slow to develop and Canterino always hurt.
  18. jmlease1
    I really hope Mahle isn't seriously hurt. That would be dreadful. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the "he's a warrior" comment meant "he sold us that he just needed to get out there and would be fine once he got going" and then they pulled him after discovering that he was full of it. But regardless: a sweep is a sweep. when you can beat the crap out of a garbage team like the Royals, you gotta do it. doesn't make up for dropping 2 of 3 against the sorry, no-account angels, but let just roll on. Time to pound on texas too.
  19. jmlease1
    I like fWAR to try and predict future ability from a pitcher, but bWAR probably shows a more complete version of what actually occurred when the pitcher threw. JMO because of the differences in how they calculate. (You could argue that much like poll aggregation, the best estimator of their actual value might be to take the average of the two?) I have to agree: we got more than I really expected out of Bundy. His overall health this season has definitely contributed to that: when a lot of pitchers of have missed games, he's taken the ball. As a 5th starter, he's not bad. as a 3rd starter, it's trouble. Archer...I think I expected a bit more, at least as the season went along. I thought he might get stretched out a bit more after midseason, and unless you have a reliable long man to partner with him in the bullpen, those 4 inning starts just aren't sustainable. the walk rate has been disappointing as well. (Archer, like so many of our starters, sure has given a free pass to a lot of guys in the 7-8-9 slots) I had a little higher hope for him than Bundy initially, so I guess I'm mildly disappointed. but neither has been a disaster. They're 5-6th starter guys, though.
  20. jmlease1
    Congrats to Brooks Lee on his first professional home run! Clearly, there are many many more to follow. He's certainly not having too many problems adjusting to the pro game, and it's great to see him hit the ground running at cedar rapids. I'm bummed to see Canterino done for the year. Again. At what point do you just have to say no to drafting pitchers from Rice? At what point to kids start saying "oh HELL no" to even going there when they're ruining arms like that? Great performance by SWR, who I remain high on. I think he's a really talented pitcher, and I like these numbers for a 21-year old pitcher at AA. the WHIP is good, the k/9 is good, the HR/9 is REALLY good, and he's bringing the BBs back to where they need to be. Considering how screwed up his development path has been (no competitive ball at all at 19 because of the pandemic, a trade & Olympics (where he didn't get to pitch) at 20, and missing substantial time at 21 with COVID), he's doing quite well, I think.
  21. jmlease1
    I'd say any "rep" is overblown, considering the twins aren't very different in handling starting pitchers than most other clubs in MLB. fewer and fewer starters are getting shots at the 3rd time through the order, and the ones who do are ones who have stats to back it up that they can handle it. The idea of FA being scared away from coming here because of the way the twins manage a pitching staff feels like a construct based on fan dislike of the process, rather than based on any evidence. Gray pitched great last night and bullied a poor team. As he should. But if he wants more cracks to pitch into the 6th & 7th innings then he can't give up back-to-back hits to start that last inning, especially when it's still only a 3-run lead. he might have gotten a chance to pitch around it if it had already been 6-0, but the offense didn't start pushing runs across until late. Great job by Thielbar cleaning it up, and nice to see Sands getting a good inning out there and miss some bats. Sands has talent, but he's got to keep missing bats. His K-rate makes me think it's possible. Jose Miranda continues to impress. He should get some ROY consideration. What he's done since the start of June is really terrific, and he looks like a hitter to fear. We'd be in big trouble without his offense. Please stay healthy, jose!
  22. jmlease1
    I think this assessment of Sano underrates his 2019 season, but over all it's a pretty fair assessment of his time in MN. the hope was he would develop into a perennial all-star contender and he had the ability to get there with his prodigious power and good patience. You hoped he would be a 30-40 HR guy at 3B who would eventually transition to 1B-DH later in his career. he wasn't far off on the HRs, clearing 30 twice and 25 two more times. he moved off 3B sooner and reduced his overall value faster. The injuries started piling up, and reduced his effectiveness at the plate. (It's odd to think that 2021 was his "healthiest" season where he played the most games) We took a loss on the contract during the contract years (too many injuries with diminished ability) but more than made up for it in earlier team-controlled years, so it's not like we lost money here. The RF experiment was a dreadful one and one of the moves that suggested the previous regime needed to be turned over, so...thanks for that? I think "mixed" is the right final assessment. there were some big moments and great stretches. there was never the sustained success, but the great runs at the plate always raised expectations which always seemed to fall short. It's time to move on. I expect someone will take a flyer on him for 1 year and $1-2M next season. He doesn't have significant splits as a hitter, and I don't know how other teams will view that. Less because he won't have a clear platoon role as a lefty masher, or more because he can just fill in as a power bat without needing to care about platoon advantage? But He's probably worth taking a flyer on at that kind of price...it just won't be here. And that's the right move.
  23. jmlease1
    One of the benefits of moving Varland up to AAA is guys from the MLB staff can see him work in person if they want to and get some instant feedback on things for him to work on to get ready for MLB hitters. I think there's an advantage for us in having our AAA club in Saint Paul. Maybe a small one, but I'll take every advantage, and I love being able to see our advanced prospects easily before they come up to MLB. It'll be interesting to see how Varland does. He's still got some work to do, but has met the challenges before. Brooks Lee is definitely a player I expected to climb the ranks quickly, but I will admit I was mildly surprised to see him jump from rookie ball to high A this way, but it makes sense if they still want him playing SS every day and Miller also playing SS every day. Lee has such an advanced hit tool that he's more likely to be able to jump in there and go. Wouldn't be surprised at all for him to be in AA by midseason next year. If Brent Rooker can't get a call up from KC, it'll say a few things about where his career is at. He only got 2 games with the big club in SD and they badly needed hitting, yet didn't see him as a real option and got dumped for a backup catcher. Maybe KC will give him a shot (because he really has nothing to prove at AAA); he certainly wouldn't have gotten one in SD after their trades.
  24. jmlease1
    A tough loss, especially with the replay insanity at the end. But it was really good to see Sands fill a long relief role like that. I think a lot of us have been wanting to see someone like him (or Winder, perhaps) stepping in after Archer (or others) only goes 4-5 innings and giving us a planned 2-3 innings. If Sands can be that guy and come in every 3-4 days and give a longer stretch, that will play up nicely. Offense will need to do better than this, though. (The injuries are getting tough) Hopefully Kepler is actually healthy enough to be a hitter and not just gutting through it. Maybe Larnach will be back soon?
  25. jmlease1
    Really helpful to understand what's going on with Kirilloff and what this surgery means (and doesn't mean). It's a shame he's having to deal with this. He's a really talented hitter and had a big future with the team either in the OF or at 1B, but if he can't swing the bat effectively for more than a few weeks without pain making him ineffective again that role diminishes quickly. Hopefully this medical intervention will resolve it so he can resume his career as intended. Hate to lose him, and we need the offense he can bring when healthy, but if you're injured, you're injured. He wasn't going to be able to have much of an impact if he had tried to keep playing through it and we're too far away from the offseason to make waiting until then a realistic option. Better to deal with it now and hopefully this procedure will be a long-term solution that will keep it from cropping up every few months. Good luck, Alex. Glad the medical team has come up with a plan!
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