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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'd love for this to be the deal, but I don't think this comes very close to getting it done. 8 years might be sufficient, but the AAV falls short of what I expect Correa to be asking for and frankly what I think the league will see as his value. As you've noted, the $35.1M wasn't a coincidence and pride matters to both players and agents, so an expectation that Correa will now take less salary in AAV than he made this season in his next contract feels very unrealistic to me. I would expect any deal for Correa to need to break the $300M barrier, even at 8 years. That shouldn't be an insurmountable task for the Twins, and Correa's skill set suggests that even if he needs to move off of SS down to 3B that he has the ability to continue to perform at a high level throughout the duration of the contract. Will anyone offer 10 years and $400M? I suspect that's probably outside the Twins willingness to go. But they should have the ability to punch up to $40M in AAV if they want to and Correa is the sort of player that I would be willing to make that investment.
  2. jmlease1
    Well, let's look at the players they brought in for 2021: Correa (played 136 games) Sanchez (played 128 games, mostly at catcher) Urshela (played 144 games) Bundy (made 29 starts) Archer (who made 25 starts...but never showed he could stay healthy for extended innings work) Gray (made 24 starts) Pagan (made 59 appearances...even if we wished he hadn't) So the investments for 2021 actually worked out ok from a health perspective. but we had injuries all over the place from the guys carried over from the previous year and up from the minors (Sano, Maeda, Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Buxton, Kepler, Lewis, Polanco, Ober, Alcala, Garlick, Winder, etc) and critically a lot of them piled up at the same damn time. Some of these guys it was reasonable to bet on them not staying healthy (Buxton, Kirilloff, Sano, maybe even Lewis and Winder...but the last two weren't guys that were being counted on for this year, really) and they certainly didn't have Maeda in their planning as anything other than "Maybe he'll be able to contribute late". But should they have predicted/planned for Kepler, Polanco, Larnach, and Jeffers all going down? I dunno. A lot of these guys who were hurt in 2022 were healthy in 2019 & 2020, when the twins won a lot of games.
  3. jmlease1
    It certainly sounds concerning if isola has that as some kind of tic! Sometimes throwing quirks like that...grow. Twins probably need to be looking at investing draft capital in the catcher spot. Is Martin Royce Lewis fast? Byron Buxton fast? I was definitely pleased with his number of steals last season and his efficiency, and I'm assuming his speed is one of the reasons the team isn't worried about his ability to slide into the OF if an infield spot doesn't work out. Speed guys can be awfully fun, and the triple is still the most consistently exciting play in baseball (seems like most inside the park HRs are the result of a catastrophically bad play in the OF, which is less fun). Would love to see Martin blazing around the bases for triples!
  4. jmlease1
    Narvaez is interesting; he's got basically no power in his bat, but he can get you some singles and hop on base enough against righties that he'd be a good fit to play with Jeffers. I think Jeffers is better behind the plate, but Narvaez wouldn't be a detriment back there. He'd be a good fit, especially if the team still thinks there's more to be gotten out of Jeffers. I'm more nervous about Barnhart, I'm afraid. He really struggled at the plate last year and his platoon splits collapsed on him; seeing how his OPS+ has steadily declined over the last five years, I'd be very concerned that he doesn't have much of a bounce-back left in him at this point. With his defense also on the decline, I'd be worried that he's just aging out as a catcher. I think finding a RH bat for the OF shouldn't be too hard or too expensive, and I think it's reasonable to get another RH arm for the bullpen (following the "Sonny Gray or better" rule I think that benchmark has to be "Michael Fulmer or better") as insurance for if Alcala isn't healthy or can't stay healthy. But SS has to be the priority. But I'd try to lock in a catching partner soon, because it's a real need and I don't see ready options in the minors. I like your Narvaez idea!
  5. jmlease1
    Jeffers, even with an injury, caught more games in MLB last season than Garver & Rortvedt combined. Plus, we traded off two catchers who could stay healthy and got one back in Sanchez who also produced more value in MLB than both Garver & Rortvedt combined, so...I think this one was actually a pretty smart move by the twins front office. If they had left things in place the way they were, we still would have been in trouble at catcher, since Garver wasn't healthy and Rortvedt wasn't healthy. Enough with the Rosario nonsense. He was awful in 2022, and awful for 2/3 of 2021. We got more value out of Trevor Larnach than Rosario has produced since leaving MN even with the injuries (which, BTW, Eddie has had enough of on his own). Nick Gordon wasn't just a better LF this past season than Rosario, he was substantially better. The Twins front office absolutely made the correct decision there, even with all of the injuries that wrecked our outfield. I still let Eddie move on (with thanks for the adventures) every single time. I would have done it even knowing that our top 5 OF were going get hurt. In terms of Wild Pitches getting by, Jeffers did fairly well and the twins as a whole were 11th in MLB. they were worse on Passed Balls, but the difference between where the twins were and league average was exactly 4 passed balls. for the season. So he seems to have done fine in blocking the plate. He's not great a throwing out baserunners, and may have regressed a little there, but the running game is also less impactful than it ever has been in baseball. Jeffers has been coming under a lot of fire on this board, and he does need a partner behind the plate so we're not relying on him quite as much (mostly because expecting any catcher to handle 140 games or so behind the plate seems like folly these days), but he was better than anything Chicago or Cleveland threw out there.
  6. jmlease1
    It's really hard to know with the pitchers, but I suspect they are unlikely to debut in 2023. I think we will see Martin & Julien in 2023 (Martin solves depth issues at multiple positions and Julien seems poised to hit his way on to the club. I get they might have Isola playing some 1B in the AFL, but is he can't stick at catcher, then I don't think we ever see him in MLB. He doesn't hit enough to play 1B even if he's actually amazing at it. He's a really interesting prospect to watch next year to see where our catching depth is, though. Julien is a terrific draft story for the Twins. 18th round pick! You could write off his 2021 if you wanted to as him being a little older for the level, but he crushed it on 2022 at AA as well and was pretty well in line for that level of competition. His understanding of the strike zone is awesome and he's doing a great job of taking his pitch and punishing it. Really looking forward to seeing how he does in AAA and if/how his power production develops. Right now he's an on-base machine who can do some damage, but if he continues to grow and becomes at 25+ HR guy without losing his current levels of contact? that's very exciting. developing these late round picks into legit MLB players is really important for the franchise. It insures you against a high pick busting, give you more prospect capital to make trades, keeps the prospect pipeline flowing, and keeps the system strong. Julien won't do much to move the needle on prospect system rankings (he's going to get dinged for not being a high pick, for not having "elite tools", for being older and less projectable, etc) but his emergence is part of what made it ok to deal Steer & CES last season.
  7. jmlease1
    I think how he locates the offspeed pitches this year will be the key for Ryan. He did a pretty good job of keeping the slider diving at and out of the edge of the zone much of the time, but you can see on his heat map at Baseball Savant that he also had too many where he hung it up high in the zone, and I suspect that's where he got hammered with it. If he can locate those pitches more consistently (the curve was pretty scattershot, which probably helped him avoid getting launched on it, but also added to his walks since player could just lay off it) I think he'll have more success and probably bring his expected values closer to actual. I'm a Joe Ryan fan. He works fast and pitches unafraid, and I love the different look his fastball presents.
  8. jmlease1
    I like Varland and his rise has been a wonderful story, but I think SWR is the pick to make the most starts from this group. He's got the stuff and is arguably a more complete pitcher than Varland, who is still developing his cutter/change. But for next year it might be a coin-flip on who gets the most chances. But I'm also a big SWR fan and see his upside as being a bit higher. Both kicked butt in AA last year, SWR might have been a bit better in AA. Neither one looked scared in the first chance at MLB, which is great. The starting pitching depth is looking good for 2023, and I'm pretty happy with Varland and SWR pushing for the 5th spot out of spring training and being the 6th-8th options if/when injuries happen.
  9. jmlease1
    Twins aren't 6 players away if they're relatively healthy next season. We collapsed in the last 2 months of the season when we were down to Jake Cave and Mark Contreras starting in the OF, neither of who was one of our top 8 choices to play OF going into the season. We were starting 4th string catchers, had Arraez playing through injury, and basically just ran out of dudes. And there's a ton of people who are ready to move on from Kepler, because he's helpless against lefties, and made way too much weak contact into the shift. If we re-sign Urshela (which I think would be smart) then we need a SS, a partner at catcher for Jeffers, and a righty hitting OF (whether we trade Kepler or not). That's 3 guys, not 6, and two can be platoon partners. Trade Kepler, sign Wil Myers. Add Vazquez to catch (lefty hitter to pair with Jeffers, and quality defender). Neither move costs much out of the $60M the twins likely have to spend, which give you room for a top end starter (with risk attached) and address SS, and probably enough room to add a RH reliever (the return of Trevor May?) as insurance in case Alcala can't get healthy/effective. Which is why it's worth having the conversation about adding to the top end of the rotation. Unfortunately, I think we're going to miss on Correa and the other top SS, miss on Rodon (and the FO won't be willing to assume the risk on the other guys that could move the needle) and spend only 2/3 of the budget with a starter with less of a top end and bridge SS that will drive many of us crazy, along with Myers/Vazquez/May moves that elevate the floor but don't raise the ceiling.
  10. jmlease1
    He had about as good a professional debut as we could have asked for. I expect he starts the season in AA but I would not be shocked at all if he's in AAA before the end of the year after knocking the crap out of the ball. He could really be a difference maker and he's moving fast.
  11. jmlease1
    So are you one of those people where it's World Championship or Bust? If you don't take the title, then the season was garbage. If you don't win it all, then nothing else you've done matters. Because that's the only way you can legitimately say we've "sucked for decades".
  12. jmlease1
    DeGrom is a fascinating case. He's opting out after any injury season, that followed another injury season. What is he looking for and what does he expect? It's possible he wants 5+ years, but it's harder to believe that teams would be lining up to give him the length, considering he hasn't pitched a full season in three years (pandemic year, injured, injured). So, maybe he's expecting to get offers that are in the 2-4 year range. So presume he's expecting at least a 3 year deal? He opted out from a deal that would pay him $32.5M in 2023, so clearly he expects to get paid an AAV above that figure. Does the number start at $35M or $40M? Here's the thing to still like about deGrom, despite the injuries from the last 2 seasons. He's never been bad his entire MLB career. His worst MLB season from an on-field performance standpoint was 2017, and he still had an ERA+ of 117. His next worst season was 2022 (when he was battling injuries) and he still had an ERA+ of 126...which was better than any other Twins starter. Even in an injury season, he's still great. Would you do 3 years/$120M for deGrom? I have to admit...I find that to be very interesting. There's significant risk involved in it, but there's no doubt that deGrom is an ace. A rotation of deGrom, Gray, Mahle, Ryan and Ober is damn good. We have enough depth to manage missed time or try to do some creative things to have a deGrom ready in Sept (3 weeks on the IL in June just to rest from a "sore shoulder"? DNP - Old?) but there's no question that it's a big risk-reward play. I'm on the record that I'd prefer the Twins drop a big number on Correa and let us stop worrying about SS. But if that isn't going to happen (Giants throw 10 years and $400M at him, for example), then this is an idea that I find intriguing. This is the bummer about being a smaller market team, though. Teams like LA, NYY, NYM, Cubs, et al have a much easier time accepting this kind of risk, because they can buy their way out of it. 25% of the payroll being dead money to a player that's hurt crushes a team like the Twins. For the Yankees a) it's only 15%, and b) they can tip up the payroll incrementally, buy out of it, and keep rolling.
  13. jmlease1
    I'm seeing this kind of comment a lot, and I'm a bit confused by it. Why are people so ready to write off Jeffers as the primary catcher for this team? He didn't have a good year at the plate, but he wasn't (and isn't) helpless up there and he's definitely a quality defender at the position. The kind of WAR he's put up even when struggling at the plate is in line for a starting quality catcher in MLB, so why exactly are people so ready to dump him at age 26? Because his BA gets down to the Mendoza Line? We need a partner for him because it's damn hard to keep a catcher fresh and in the lineup for 140 games, but there's no reason he can't be the primary catcher and provide good value. Again: even with a big (but fluky) injury, Jeffers still caught more games than Garver did last year (and basically as many as Garver & Rortvedt combined). I think people need to adjust their expectations and understanding about what production from the catcher position is going to look like.
  14. jmlease1
    I don't have a problem with the twins taking a flyer on a reclamation project. I think it's a problem when they base the rotation on it. It's fine to sign a veteran coming off an injury/bad year to compete for the 5th spot in the rotation with the young guys (I think of this as the "no scholarships" approach), you just can't bet the 3rd spot in the rotation on it. Between trades and young pitchers, we've established a deeper starter pool and better floor for the rotation. At best there's room for 1 of these kind of flyers (and arguably this season more than others there isn't room for it at all this time), but if you're going to try it then you have to a) let it be a real competition that the rookie/internal candidate can win, and b) not let yourself get trapped by the sunk cost fallacy. I'd say the needs for the rotation this year are at the top end and floor is well-established, with many options in reserve. So not a great time to take a flyer on a reclamation project. but while I'd rather not spend money there this season, I'm not opposed to it in the future.
  15. jmlease1
    So, this is interesting, because what we're talking about here is assuming a different sort of risk on pitching. the risk move here is looking at a bunch of pitchers that all have mixed track records, usually because of injury but some because of inconsistent effectiveness year over year. The bet here is to identify which one of them can have a top-end year later in their career and stay healthy long enough to do it. there's less financial risk here than going for one of the top FA starters, but also much less likelihood of actually getting a superior performance as well. Which of these guys might increase the top end of the Twins rotation? I'm not enthusiastic about many of these options, because they look like more of Sonny Gray at best and many i have serious concerns that they really can't get to that level through a full season any longer. or stay healthy. If I wanted to roll the dice on any of these, my choices would probably be: Syndergaard (because he might be able to find another gear now that he's further removed from his injury and had a healthy and successful season, and he's reached that higher end before), Heaney (who might have finally translated his talent into results, lefties sometimes need more time/age well, the K's have always been there, and he'd also bring a different look to the twins rotation), or Senga (who is a wildcard in that you can never be sure how he'd translate to MLB but compared to most of the rest of these guys at least we don't really know where his top end is and most of these guys have a top end that is uninspiring). but these are all starters that I would have been looking at for the Twins if their rotation was looking like it was at the end of last season, where we NEEDED 2-3 veterans and simply didn't have anyone slotted in for 3/5 of the rotation. Someone like Taijuan Walker is a nice, solid pitcher who is unlikely to be better than Sonny Gray and more likely to be at or worse than Joe Ryan next year. Not what I'm looking for to support this rotation.
  16. jmlease1
    Exactly. After a strong and healthy season, he's going to want 5 years for sure, and isn't going to take a discount from anyone. 5/$125M might be the low end, IMHO. I would still give it to him if we're not going to re-sign Correa (heck , i'd give it to him even if we are! I would be perfectly comfortable spending all of our FA payroll space on 2 players and going for internal/minimum salary options to fill other needs if we could do it). But Rodon might need to start at $30M AAV after his last two seasons. Again, I think the rotation is at a point where that risk is worth it: Rodon, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, & Ober is a really nice rotation that has depth and high-end upside. And the Twins have injury depth for the rotation in Maeda, Dobnak, Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Winder, etc. We don't need veteran depth at $8-12M per season, we need high end investment or to put those resources elsewhere. I'd prefer to take the monetary risk of buying high and healthy on Rodon than try and trade for a top starter at this point. the amount of prospect capital we'd need to give up would leave us pretty empty unless some of our own lottery tickets take big leaps, and we need to keep moving prospects through in order to balance out our needs. If we crap out on Rodon because he gets hurt or turns into a pumpkin, so be it. but he could lead the rotation for years while the pitching pipeline flows in and we're able to fill the rotation with guys on rookie deals and then moves on when SWR gets extended or something. It's not going to take 7-8 years on Rodon, but it will take 5 and a significant AAV. But I think he's worth it, and it's the sort of risk worth going for.
  17. jmlease1
    Rodon is the one who moves the needle in the FA pool. He's worth the risk, i think. Syndergaard is kind of interesting, but more likely raises the floor than elevates the ceiling. I'm having trouble figuring out what his market is, since he's been essentially dropped from the playoff rotation, but didn't have a bad year overall. Really hard to know if he might find another gear a full season past injury, or whether this is who he likely is as a pitcher from now on. Not sure he's better than say, Joe Ryan any longer. There's some interesting names listed on the trade group, but why would the Padres move on from Snell? Gallen would be a great fit, but a) would take a metric truckload to pry him loose, and b) not sure AZ is really interested in moving him.
  18. jmlease1
    Give the twins a little credit; Duran had never pitched above low A before joining the Twins, and he was in their system about as long as he was in the D-backs. That's still a development success story, when you can move a pitcher from low-A to MLB success.
  19. jmlease1
    we traded away two catchers, but brought back one in the deal. Garver was injured and declined at the plate for Texas, only catching 14 games and only playing in 54. Rortvedt was also injured and hit so poorly in AAA that he couldn't crack the Yankees MLB roster. Sanchez and Jeffers caught more games than Garver/Rortvedt combined last season. Heck, if Jeffers had caught a couple more games, they would have EACH caught more games than Garver/Rortvedt combined. I'd say the Twins won out on that deal, even with Jeffers sustaining a significant injury that cost him a lot of time. And I say that as someone who kept buying Ben Rortvedt stock even after I should have realized that he just can't hit. I generally agree with the basic proposition that the twins should not be bringing in veteran starters unless they add to the top end of the rotation. (I usually framed it against Joe Ryan not Sonny Gray, but the idea is the same) Can we count on Mahle, Gray, Maeda, & Ryan to be a #1 for a full season? not without assuming a lot of risk. But we're better off riding that risk than throwing $12M at another Dylan Bundy type who can eat innings but only do it at a below league-average ability. They don't need to trade for rotation depth any longer, and they don't need to sign re-treads when they have Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Woods Richardson, Winder, and Dobnak already on the 40-man, with Paddack eventually coming back, Sands still being a possibility, and Balazovic as an option as well. But it seems unlikely that trade is where they're going to find that top-end pitcher at this point. the minors are getting thinner with prospects, and frankly the twins need to keep their pipeline going. Right now they have cash available, so if they're not going to spend it on Correa or one of the other top SS, then dropping big money on a top starter seems a reasonable risk. the floor is getting covered now. raise the ceiling, please.
  20. jmlease1
    Austin Martin is like Don Baylor out there. (no complaints, as long as it doesn't cause him to miss time) Julien is going to be an interesting guy to watch. Right now he seems to be a player that doesn't expand the strike zone, waits for his pitch and hammers it. That's easier to do in the minors with less refined pitchers and an automated strike zone, but he's performed at every level so at a certain point you simply can't dismiss it. He's making plenty of contact and really commands the strike zone. Really his biggest drawback is he doesn't stand out defensively anywhere. he's not the worst defender at 2B, but he's also not particularly good, which means he really needs to hit his way to the majors. I'm curious about his overall speed; he was a terrific base-stealer in A-ball, and wasn't bad in AA last season and if he can be a consistent threat on the basepaths, that certainly will help his overall profile. Suspect he will start the season in AAA and get some time in MLB when an injury strikes, especially if Urshela sticks around. But he's another reason why it's unlikely Gio gets a multi-year deal from the Twins.
  21. jmlease1
    oof, guess they're struggling to figure out 1B defense? or maybe it was just particularly uninspiring this year? Luis is weirdly a decent choice out of these finalists, but he only played 65 games there. Vlad played more games there, but wasn't terribly good, but was better than Rizzo? I guess it's better than the year that Palmeiro won it while spending 80% of his time at DH...
  22. jmlease1
    well, I'm not "jimmy", but whatev. Can you name a single instance of someone refusing to sign with a team because their SS defense sucked? Top pitchers do like big markets, because they pay the best, the endorsement opportunities are higher, etc. They also generally spend more and win more consistently. Gerrit Cole signed with the Yankees and I'm pretty sure the fact that Gleyber Torres was their SS didn't really impact the discussion. Didi Gregorius slipped enough at SS for the Yankees to move on from him, but it didn't get in the way of Zack Wheeler signing with the Phillies...and he's not been a good defender for them either (and in fact has been so bad on both ends that they would be a contender for Correa!). You're right: Gordon has been better defensively as an OF than an infielder, and I wouldn't consider him a great candidate to hold down SS even as an interim, and I think the Twins agree. But if we pay the money and get the years right, it wouldn't matter if he was out starting SS: a pitcher would sign, absent other complicating factors.
  23. jmlease1
    As a bridge option if they fail to re-sign Correa (or one of the other quality FA SS that are out there), he's one of the better options. But still not a great one. I'm more enthusiastic about him than Jose Iglesias, I guess? I think there's a chance he could be a 2 bWAR player next season, but I wouldn't expect the ceiling to be any higher. This feels a little like the "break glass in case of emergencies" option? He should not be a first, second, or third choice really.
  24. jmlease1
    If the money & years are right, it won't matter who is plugged in at SS. Just like it won't bring anybody in at a discount having Byron Buxton patrolling CF. Yes, players want to win and will look at the overall status of the club when deciding to sign somewhere, but at the end of the day FA signings have a lot more to do with years and dollars than anything else. It's the opportunity to make life-changing, generational wealth, even if it means playing with a guy who uses a frying pan rather than a glove behind them. Besides, people can convince themselves of anything: "They'll address SS next season. He's better than you think. Better team defense will make it look ok. I strike out everybody anyways." and so on...
  25. jmlease1
    Does he, though? And while it may just have been small sample size and adjustment period to the majors, but Palacios was dreadful at the plate, looking almost completely helpless in his brief turn. Nico Hoerner is a much, much better option than Palacios and it's not really close. Hoerner's presence on this list really just highlights the possibility that the Cubs won't be bidding on Correa, Turner, or Boegarts this off-season, which would be to the Twins favor by reducing the number of bigger market teams that might bigfoot an offer. Doesn't mean the Twins will get any kind of discount on Correa, but fewer teams bidding is always better for us.
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