jmlease1

About the only reason to bring in Wacha is if the Twins don't think Mahle and/or Maeda will be ready to pitch on opening day. The rotation looks solid already with Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, and Ober with Varland, Winder, Woods Richardson and Balazovic waiting in AAA, and Paddack possibly back by midseason. Wacha doesn't move the needle, doesn't raise the ceiling on the starting pitching. Yes, injuries are an issue but at some point you have to let guys like Ober, Varland, Woods Richardson etc pitch. I'm a no on Wacha. Feels like spending money to spend money. Bundy's only real skill last season was health. Great, he took the ball every 5th day, but he wasn't GOOD. Would Wacha really do much more?

As I've stated before, I'd take the risk on Correa. 10/$285? 9/$275? fine. Would do those deals. But I don't think it's going to happen, and I don't think the twins are any kind of front-runner. There's still a chance that the Twins will end up with Correa and the Mets will end up either backing out or throwing up enough conditions and clauses that Correa walks away, but the odds are still against the Twins. Correa is a great player, and I think he's going to be a great player for the next 3-4 years at an absolute minimum. I think he'll likely age better than most, as some of his best skills at SS (positioning, arm strength, consistent glove) should age better than ones that are speed or reaction-based. With his arm, he'll be able to slide down to 3B and provide superior defense even if his range declines to where he needs to move off SS. If he keeps hitting close to where he's been at, then he's an all-star at either spot. We know he's a good guy in the clubhouse and that players gravitate to him, which is good when you expect to have young players consistently coming up. That's all good. There's risk in any deal, and it gets higher the longer it is. But Correa is the kind of player that's a) worth the risk, and b) isn't often available for the Twins. Go for it. Hells bells, no one in Twins leadership is likely to be around at the end of this contract anyways.

The whole saga is pretty amusing. I'd love to know what exactly SF & NY are seeing in the medicals that is making them try to get a discount/restructure after initially agreeing to terms and makes them think that they have have enough leverage to get it done against the most powerful agent in baseball. Or is some of this tied to the rumors early on that many teams in MLB didn't rate Correa as highly and both the Giants & Mets have second-guessed themselves? For me, I would still take the risk were I running the Twins. Correa is an elite player and it's worth taking a risk on an elite guy. This isn't hoping someone comes back after a major injury, this isn't hoping a great player still has something left in the tank. This is a great player in his prime. Maybe the leg injury (that doesn't seem to have caused him to miss a game in MLB yet?) will force him off SS sooner than we'd like. Still not sure why this is an issue with the Mets, who were going to play him at 3B anyways. Maybe they think he won't hit any longer? I take the risk if I'm the Twins. Correa raises the ceiling on this team right now in a big way. If SF & NY have doctors who are saying he's going to be hurt and not playing much in the next 2-3 years I'd be stunned. If the risk is in years 8-12...I take it. We experienced several years of a diminished Joe Mauer, but his contract wasn't what was stopping us from winning; what stopped us from winning was young players not developing and making bad signings to fill in. the 2016 Twins stunk because Nolasco, Milone, Gibson, Duffey, and Berrios stunk as starters, not because Mauer's contract was an albatross. They stunk because they started a bunch of hitters who couldn't hit (yet) in Buxton, Kepler, and Escobar and relied on veterans like Plouffe & Suzuki who couldn't hit either. I still don't think it's going to happen, but I'd sign him if we could. Take the risk.

I've completely excluded Pagan from this discussion because I'm sorry...he's Pagan. He's a fringe roster player at this point that probably shouldn't be here (if for no other reason that the benefits from him figuring things out are vastly outweighed by the PTSD he gives the fans while still figuring it out). He's got a ton to prove, but it shouldn't be here. I hope to hell he's part of whatever trades the team is working on behind the scenes.

Unfortunately, Buxton has to be on this list until he has a healthy season. He's proven he has the talent and skill to be a star, but hasn't proven he can stay healthy enough. I'm not sure Ryan belongs on here: he had a very good rookie season, limiting the HRs, showing out a good WHIP, stayed pretty healthy through a full season, and showed he could compete. He's pretty locked in. It's a little depressing how many guys on the Twins need to prove something based on their inability to stay healthy recently. Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Ober, Alcala...

I think the ceiling may have dropped some on Martin because of the ongoing uncertainty of whether or not he will hit for power. But his contact skills, ability to draw walks (and get hit by pitches) will make him an effective offensive player. He seems unlikely to stick at SS, but would do well at 2B or any OF position. He's probably about average in CF and a plus guy in either corner because of his range. Considering where the Twins are with stacks of LH OFs and Celestino's struggles at the plate, I think Martin might make a good option to cover for the inevitable Buxton injury and give options to add a RH bat in either corner. They'll still need to clean some things up with their OF (a few too many guys, maybe) but Martin could be a high average, high on-base guy with good speed and plus baserunning who could serve as an igniter at the top of the order or adding a weapon at the bottom of it, while giving good defense in the OF. Nick Gordon might have developed a better power stroke (for now), but Martin is the better defender already I think, and as a RH bat might be a better fit as a super-utility guy. Still like Martin, and thought he did well by himself in the AFL.

I'd argue kirilloff, Larnach, & Alcala have already broken through but have been dinged by significant injury in MLB. Miranda seems to have broken through as well. It's an interesting list, shows how much people can shift around on these lists.

It is sort of hilarious how we basically have Zombie Correa Free Agency: it never truly ends. Would I take Correa, even with the potential risks that have started cropping up with the medicals from both the Giants & the Mets? yes, because with the Twins as a FA destination...you have to take some risks. Correa answers a lot of questions for the twins in the short term, even with the medicals. Hilariously, it would instantly take the Twins from a bad off-season to a pretty great one in one swing. If you told everyone in early December the Twins were going to sign Correa, Vasquez, and Gallo the response would have been: "wow!" followed by "wait, how does Gallo fit on this roster?" and we'd be spending all our time trying to figure out if Kepler's being traded and for what... I don't think it's going to happen. There's some noise, but in the end I think there's barely any chance that Correa ends up back here, so I'm viewing the whole thing with a sort of eye-rolling bemusement.

I think that's the biggest problem. he might just be cooked as a hitter. Might he do better over the course of the season in a reduced role, where he'd stay fresher and healthier, never being expected to play 130-140 games? Possibly, but it's definitely a gamble. Is he an upgrade over Garlick? Maybe? He's going to be less helpless against righties...probably? He's going likely to be less effective against LHP. McCutcheon might actually be healthier?

I'm a big fan of SWR. His development was very much screwed up at the time the Twins got him (Olympics, pandemic, fast promotion, etc). The talent has always been there, he really needed health, game experience, and a consistent development program. He mostly had that last season (the time missed to covid was really the only hiccup) and as a result you saw the pitcher who was such a highly touted prospect. He was very good at AA, and didn't backslide at all when he was moved up on merit to AAA. He pitched a career high in innings even with missing some time, he got his BB/9 back to a reasonable area, and while the K/9 slid back a little it was still very respectable. He was hard to hit, and didn't look scared in his first MLB start. And he's just turned 22.

Good depth move for the bullpen at low cost. He's a decent reliever when healthy, especially if you don't over-expose him.

He just needs health. He was starting to figure it out at the plate last year before the injury (it would have been interesting to see how pitchers would have adjusted to him and if he could have made a counter, but instead he got hurt). I think he's got a lot of bat talent and could be a significant offensive contributor, hitting for a solid average with a good on-base and significant power, as a well-rounded hitter. He's not an all or nothing guy, but can really scald the ball. I think he can be a middle of the order hitter. defensively, he'll never be more than average, I suspect, so he'll need to hit his way in there. Maybe the new trainer can keep in on the field this year?

Ridiculous. Just because Mauer wasn't a loud guy who spent a lot of time talking to the media, doesn't mean he wasn't a leader. Remember, he was the guy who started giving out game balls to the team, something that clearly meant a lot on a young team trying to figure things out. Some guys lead by example, and Joe 100% did that. Not clutch? His stats at bRef would disagree with you there too. He was always good with runners in scoring position, high leverage situations, etc. He did not have playoff success. But he also had very limited opportunities, which is a strike more against his teams than him personally. Mauer was also the victim of one of the more horrendous blown calls in recent playoff memory... I don't think he makes it on the first ballot, just because that's a high bar, but I wouldn't be shocked either. The national media never had the resentment towards Joe that some of the locals did (Dan Barreiro, are your ears burning?) and the numbers are there. Wish Joe had won a gold glove at 1B (he deserved one), because that might have cinched the deal. Personally, I think he's a no-brainer: 6 all-stars, an MVP, 5 silver sluggers, 3 gold gloves, 3 batting titles...what more do you need?

I don't know that I would rule out going for Correa. But I'd be awfully skeptical if Boras refused to let the Twins investigate the issue while demanding they raise their offer to Mets levels. "No, no...trust me!" That doesn't work when you're talking this kind of money. It is a little wild that it's playing out like this. Correa was taking a significant haircut to bail on the Giants (or did the Giants bail on him?) to go to the Mets. If the Mets are now grouching about his medicals...what does that really mean?

The chaos and mayhem around Correa's signing/not signing is sort of funny, but I'm not sure it does anything for the Twins. The way Cohen is spending on the Mets and not caring about his luxury tax impacts suggests to me that even if there is "something" in his physical, it's unlikely to matter. Cohen right now doesn't care about insurance and will almost certainly overrule his staff if needed. Wonder if this makes SF feel better? (Will Cohen start caring about all of the money running out the door if a) he doesn't win a title, or b) if he does? That might get interesting. Sometimes these guys flip the other way once they get that achievement...) Until we get more detail on what the issue is, I have no ability to judge the possible severity and impact and whether the Twins should try and jump back in. I do think if Boros is saying "no, you can't investigate this before increasing your offer if you want to get back in" then the Twins have to step carefully, because that's a red alert.

It's one thing to spend big on position players and starting pitching, but history suggests teams are better off developing their relief options internally. 3 years and $33M for a reliever might be ok if they were in their prime, but for a 32 year-old reliever coming off his worst season as a pro? Odds are pretty good that he's going to have one good season, one meh season, and one bad one.

3 years & $33M? Hard pass. He might be a useful pitcher still, but he's unlikely to be consistently elite going forward. Good for him to get that kind of money coming off a pretty bad season, but that's not smart use of funds for the team.

I don't think so. I think they felt Urshela was not an option at SS, even as a backup, and they were looking to move Miranda in as the regular 3B. Trading Urshela was more about rebalancing the roster to open a spot for a player who could legit play SS regardless of what happened with Correa. I don't think they saw Urshela as being worth $9M as a backup, either, and he would have been a backup at the start of the season, since the only spots he could get PT are at 3B (where he's behind Miranda now), 2B (everyone is behind Polanco), 1B (behind Arraez & Kirilloff), or DH (where he probably doesn't hit enough, and the Twins prefer to rotate guys through there anyways) I don't necessarily agree with the move, but there's a logic behind it from a roster construction standpoint, especially if they're feeling confident in Brooks Lee being ready sooner rather than later, Austin Martin pushing for time, and Royce Lewis coming back healthy and ready by midseason, along with Edouard Julien. (of course, this is the opposite of their decision-making (so far) on the OF, with the Gallo acquisition) I think it's fair to question the unwillingness of the FO to not increase their offer for Correa when the Mets offer ended up being so much closer to where the Twins had been. Could the Twins have gone 12/$315? Probably, even if stretching the contract 2 extra years doesn't help them in the same way it does a team like the Mets. Could they have bucked it up to 10/$300M? Also probably. Should they have tried to stretch? I think so, but...would that have gotten it done...no one knows. Would that have been a mistake? William Goldman's best advice on the film industry applies here. "Remember, nobody knows anything." The appropriate emphasis is on "knows". We can speculate and conjecture, but nobody knows anything. Byron Buxton doesn't really know to what degree Correa wanted to come back here, so his comment is opinion. I mean, sure if the Twins offered MORE years and more dollars than anyone, he probably comes back. But even that isn't certain, and we don't KNOW it, and neither does Byron. Maybe we needed to beat it by $10M. Nobody knows if the Giants skittishness over a medical issue is reasonable or not. Nobody knows if Correa will be healthy for the next 5 years, the next 10 or the next 2.

I think this is the key passage. Boras went back to the Twins and told them they could get back in the mix for Correa if they increased the offer, the Twins said "hang on, something just blew up this other offer and we need to check it out before we go up more" and Boras said, "nope, no more questions". Right now, we don't really know what the actual medical issue was that caused the Giants to get cold feet. Ankle? Back? Something no one has talked about before? Lots of speculation, and anonymous sources who have agendas. Easy to judge when you're just guessing about the issue. I'm having trouble blaming the Twins for saying "hey we need a minute to figure this out, because this is unprecedented" when the agent noted for waiting until he gets the offer he wants is pushing them to a) move their money up, and b) do it now now now. It all feels very hinky. But at the same time, there's a real chance this is all overblown. And the Twins could have done the same move that the Giants did and walk away if there's something in the medicals that was going to prevent a contract from being insured or whatever else this might have been about. So I'm thinking they made a mistake by not upping the 10/$285M offer and taking your shot. Swooping back in at the last minute would have completely changed the tenor of this off-season and positioned the Twins much better for 2023. I guess eating $30M at the back end of the deal was just too unpalatable for the front office. I suppose it's the honorable thing to do, not sticking someone else with a lead weight of dead money? Because even if they're very successful over the next several years, the odds of Falvey & Levine running the show in MN in 2034 is pretty damn slim. No one lasts 20 years any longer.

I almost don't want Gallo coming up with men on base, because the Ks might start really grating. If no one is on, the BBs are still good, especially with a contact hitter behind him and his astute baserunning (if not real speed). His OPS with RISP is actually lower than with the bases empty, which suggests that pitchers aren't really dancing away from him. He's a complicated player. The power is undeniable. So are the mountains of Ks.

This really really makes me want to know what the medical issue was that effed up the deal with SF. Either it's something pretty major, in which case either this Mets deal falls apart/they're taking a massive risk, or it's not something all that significant, in which case the Giants absolutely screwed themselves. Will the leaks flow? It's tough for me to say what the Twins should have done here without knowing that medical issue. If the Giants made a mountain out of a molehill, then it's disappointing for the Twins to not have jumped in again with the money dropping so significantly. If it's a real thing...then do you want Correa if he's got a major medical issue? Wild.

welp, I was wrong. Thought for sure this would get ironed out and he'd be a Giant. Did not see the Mets move coming.

I don't think it will change anything, IMHO. If they were willing to go 13 years and break the bank, they're not backing out now. Maybe SF was trying to get some insurance done on the contract and the medical threw a wrench into it. They'll probably iron it out or move along.

100% agree on Myers. I thought he was a good fit and upgrade from garlick at the start of the offseason.

Gallo is a complicated signing. It's not the worst move in the world, but it is a really frustrating one for Twins fans because the fit is a tough one and it's unlikely to be one that was made without other moves in mind that haven't occurred yet. So right now we're stuck with Gallo in isolations and it's easy to make ourselves a little bit crazy over it. For people that hate a "three true outcomes" approach, were thrilled to see Sano headed out of town...there's no stat on concept that's going to make those people happy about this move, not even Gallo's history as a quality defender. And I get it: it's not a terribly aesthetically pleasing style of baseball in many ways. I'm still struggling to come around on the "depth" argument though I do think it's an important one to consider. the folks reminding us that at one point the twins were starting their 6th-10th choices for OF last season, including games where none of them were a top 5 pick for the OF ain't wrong. That said, after last season I think I would be much more comfortable with Nick Gordon as an OF than I was at the start of 2022 or Matt Wallner coming up as an injury replacement. Pre-Gallo, the OF depth chart looked something like: Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Gordon, Kirilloff, Garlick, Celestino, Wallner...and even with injury risks from Buxton, Kirilloff, and maybe Larnach (I would argue that presuming Larnach as a significant injury risk is a little overblown right now; the presumptions on Buxton and Kirilloff are more than fair) that our depth doesn't look too bad here. Things didn't start falling off the ledge for the Twins until they needed to get past the 8th pick last year, either, and that was a really injury ravaged group. can you put together a roster planning for needing your 9th OF consistently or are you already screwed? (and this year that 9th OF pre-Gallo is probably Austin Martin, so...maybe not so bad?) Does this position the Twins better to deal one of their many LH OF guys? I think that's the best argument for signing Gallo: take a potential quality bat off the market, deal from position of depth, using guys you know have value (and presumably) interest from other teams. It's just hard for me to be happy about it until the music finally stops. seems like they could have done better to address the OF needs earlier and gotten a RH bat and not placed themselves in a position where they really NEED to make a deal, instead of just having the option to make a deal if something good comes together.