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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Eddie Rosario has never scored 100 runs in a season. Now, that's not really a knock on eddie; it's very difficult to do. in 2022 only 10 players in all of baseball hit that number. (BTW, Carlos Correa accomplished it in 2021). The last Twin to do so was Jorge Polanco in 2019. yes, you need situational hitting to help it along, but you also need players that are healthy all year. The idea that Rocco doesn't know what his players are capable and doesn't put them in winning situations of is fairly silly, especially in the context of a desire to play more "small ball". The roster of players we have are not suited for it. Luis Arraez has excellent contact skills, but his terrible knees make him a poor baserunner that shouldn't be trying to steal bases. Polanco, Miranda, Jeffers, Larnach, Kirilloff, Garlick, Sanchez, Sano...these are not base-stealers. By not asking them to do things that they're not good at, Rocco is trying to maximize their success.
  2. jmlease1
    ooh! ooh! Someone referred to Rocco as a computer! that's like, BINGO, right?
  3. jmlease1
    I was one of the people leading the charge for the Twins to sign Story a year ago. Shows what I know. And a reminder that you never know who is going to stay healthy. People were talking up concerns with Correa's back, but it wasn't a problem for him last season; Story spend a good chunk of time on the IL and now is having a significant surgery. (It's also hilarious watching East Coast media backpedal on Correa now that he's with a midwest team. They've now discovered "sources" that practically have Correa in traction every day to get ready for games...)
  4. jmlease1
    It absolutely doesn't matter how we got here, only that we made it. We weren't Correa's first choice last season either; he was aiming for a big, long-term deal (and likely in a big market). He didn't treat us like a consolation prize last season and was a great player for us. He's here. He's our guy now. That's all that matters. I hope he crushes it, stays healthy, wins an MVP and leads us to a title and plays for us for the full 10. I hope he's legend--wait for it--dary. I hope he plays so well that he's a first-ballot Hall of Famer and goes in wearing a Twins cap. Looking forward to it. Loved watching him play this year. Thrilled he's back, and I don't care how weird it got in getting him. It just doesn't matter. We got a great player, and I think he's going to play great for us.
  5. jmlease1
    my goodness, it's actually a done deal! Love it. I'm also enjoying the saltiness from Mets fans as they pretend they never wanted him in the first place, somehow dodged a bullet, they never would have done this deal, etc. What a bunch of lying clowns. I'm thrilled with this. The team is taking a big swing here, and I love that. Eventually you have to take a shot, and Correa is the kind of guy that's worth going all in on. Maybe he gets hurt, but that risk is always out there. The upside is having an MVP-caliber player in your lineup every day at a position you haven't filled well for a long time. Let's gooooooooooo!
  6. jmlease1
    he played 30 games there in 2022. (he'd barely played 1B his whole career before being asked to jump in there for the twins in 2022) Maybe give him a chance before consigning him to DH. Trevor Plouffe started out so poorly at 3rd he described himself as having winning an Iron Glove. Corey Koskie had stretches early on where it looked like he was using a frying pan instead of a glove. both turned out pretty well over there.
  7. jmlease1
    Miranda is going to be given every opportunity to play 3B, he's played is acceptably in the minors and wasn't dreadful so far in MLB. There's basically no way Farmer starts at 3B unless Miranda becomes unplayable there and so far he's not. Garlick almost has to slip on to the roster somewhere (replace Celestino; between Gordon, Gallo, and Kepler there's enough options when Buxton gets a rest and Celestino can come up if Buxton goes to the IL) right now. We still need his RH bat availability. Gordon is out of options I think and played well enough last season that he has to make the Opening Day roster or be traded.
  8. jmlease1
    I think the issue with the ankle has a lot more to do with how the Giants & Mets were planning to stretch the cost of this contract over longer periods of time. They probably weren't any more worried about it in the short term than anyone, but had more serious questions about whether this would keep him off the field consistently when he turned 36-38. It's one thing to look at 1-2 years or dead money (although I think these teams that are doing these 11-14 year deals are convincing themselves that they'll beat the odds and have productive players into their 40's) and another to be thinking they're looking at 3-4 years or dead money. Because you can't count on a player to retire and forfeit the last years of a deal, especially when the injury is something chronic and there are ways to get yourself back on the field.
  9. jmlease1
    I'm a big fan of Torii Hunter as a player, and he was one of the more exciting players in Twins history. But for me, he falls short of Hall of Fame. I'm not militant about small hall v big hall, and I think there's room for players who had really high peaks as well as those who didn't rise quite as high but had long runs of sustained excellence. Torii's case relies more on the second than the first; he just didn't have any of those amazing seasons where you had to consider him one of the best of the best in baseball, a true MVP contender, etc. There's something to be said for having 13 years in a row where you don't have a bad season, but he only landed 5 all-star appearances...and that was fairly generous based on his performance. Yes, he won 9 Gold Gloves, but the metrics suggest that most of the later ones were probably more due to reputation than performance. (This is where the Ozzie Smith argument falls flat: Oz really was that great on defense by any analysis) When Torii's bat got going, his defense was already slipping. When he was a great defender, he hadn't figured out how to really hit yet. He was frequently a good offensive player, never a great one (never had an OPS+ over 130) Looking at a couple of Torii's peers is instructive: Jim Edmonds & Mike Cameron. Neither is in the Hall, and I'd argue Torii is closer to Cameron than Edmonds...and no one is really advocating for Mike Cameron as a Hall of Famer. (Lofton was better than any of them, but seems to have detonated his chances through his personal conduct) Torii was a wonderful player. But he falls short for me.
  10. jmlease1
    That's a lot of speculation. As far as we know, he hasn't actually failed a physical, just had something show up that made teams concerned further out on these really long deals. There's been nothing that says he can't pass a physical this year, just that they think he's at risk for something 6+ years down the line.
  11. jmlease1
    These are really good numbers for the Twins and the team options are excellent. Gives them a lot of flexibility to move on if needed, but also retain if the production is there. If Correa has an OPS+ of 140 or better and a bWAR of 4 or better, the Twins wouldn't want to let him go just because he only hit 540 plate appearances or something at age 34. This structure works out very well for the Twins and Correa; he gets more money up front, the Twins get a lot of mitigation on the back end, but also are paying the bigger numbers during the likely most productive years. Guess the Twins actually will spend what it costs to secure a premier free agent.
  12. jmlease1
    That's pretty great for the Twins. I don't worry about no-trade clauses like this; they can always get waived. But the structure makes so much sense for the Twins. They're not locked into a bunch of years after Correa turns 40 (there are so few players that have hit well at that age, let alone be effective defensively at any position), they've got outs if he can't stay on the field, they don't have to worry about him opting out if he has an MVP-type year in year 2, and the bulk of the money is located in his prime years. And I really really like Correa as a player. There aren't that many players at SS who can hit like Correa does. Heck, there aren't that many 3Bs that hit like he does. He's a player you can build around. I bashed the FO pretty hard for appearing to whiff on Correa and seeming to settle for Vazquez and Gallo. But in the end, they got it done on Correa (pending physical, lol) and this offseason has gone from poor to great in a hurry. I'm still not sold on Gallo (and the plethora of LH corner OFs) but if they can make another move to bolster things from the right side and solidify the bullpen, then I feel awfully good about this offseason.
  13. jmlease1
    Replacing Archer & Bundy with Mahle & Maeda is a definite upgrade, injuries or no. Having Varland & Woods Richardson at the next options up with them already having some MLB experience and success is also an improvement. The rotation is deeper and better than at the start of last season. There's a good argument to make that the bullpen is better positioned as well; Lopez is more talented than some of the pitchers we were running out last season, Duran is proven now, and Pagan is pushed way down the depth charts. I'm not ready to say we have the bullpen locked yet, but it's in at least as good a position as opening day last year, arguably better. Correa is just such an upgrade at SS over Farmer. (who is a nice enough player, but much better suited to a utility role)
  14. jmlease1
    If that's correct, it's an excellent stipulation for the team that really does protect them pretty nicely. And considering how much lower the dollars are in those last 4 years...it's a very good structure for the Twins. And to be very honest, front-loading money is very good for Correa too, unless he gets ripped off by his money managers.
  15. jmlease1
    If the vesting option on the last 4 years doesn't kick in unless CC plays essentially a full season in year 6 of this deal then the Twins have done an excellent job of mitigating the risk. Teams frequently prefer to defer money to later in a deal, and from a pure finance standpoint that makes sense (a dollar now is generally "worth" more than a dollar in 5 years), but in terms of roster and payroll management, front-loading can really help you out. I like this structure quite a bit.
  16. jmlease1
    It's a pretty great deal for the Twins. The shorter term works for them and they have the payroll space now to front-load this contract for his prime years. 4 years on the back end if it vests at an AAV of less than $20M should look pretty reasonable assuming Correa continues to hit and stay reasonably healthy. There's still real risk with this deal, but they've mitigated it pretty reasonably considering the caliber of the player they are getting. But there's always going to be risk with any long-term deal, and sometimes you have to roll the dice. Correa is worth it, especially right now. So nice not to have to worry about SS for a while. Correa checks every box; literally the only issue is whether or not he can stay healthy for the duration of the deal. You know what? That issue exists for every other SS who signed this offseason. I wish no ill on Dansby Swanson, but if he tears his ACL in year 2 of his deal...yikes. Correa is a leader, a complete player who adds plus offense at the plate and elite defense in the field. I'm thrilled to have him back and glad the Twins stuck it out, accepted the risk, and made it happen.
  17. jmlease1
    Well, I will admit I didn't think this was going to happen. Always felt like the Mets would outspend us in the end. But I'm thrilled with this deal (assuming it finalizes, which apparently is not something we should presume any longer!). Correa is a great player, he'll be excellent at SS in the short term and will be able to slide down to 3B if needed later in the contract. Having his RH bat in the middle of the lineup and his stellar defense is just fantastic for this team and take what was a dismal offseason straight to an excellent one. I do think the Twins need to still look at a deal to clean up some of the many LH corner OF bats (Kepler still seems like the obvious choice) and balance the roster, and frankly I'd love for them to deal Pagan as well. Get in one more RH bat for the lineup and swap Pagan's roster spot for a RH reliever and...I feel pretty good about this roster. wow. Correa back!
  18. jmlease1
    Nah, best trade is still Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan. Cruz only had half a season left on his contract and was already 40 years old. Immediately after being dealt, he fell off the table. Joe Ryan had already provided more value and looks like a rotation mainstay. That was a fantastic trade.
  19. jmlease1
    I said "borderline criminal", and I think that's accurate. He wasn't charged, but he could have been, and who knows where things go after that? And the anti-trans & anti-Semitic social media posts are expressions of bigotry, they're not "rumors" just because you missed them. And he's certainly not sorry. The idea that a) this team somehow needs "fire" to win, and b) Bauer is even remotely capable of bringing that energy in a positive way is pretty ridiculous. They wanted him out in Cleveland, they're eating his salary in LA to get rid of him and he'll bring a firestorm media circus with him if he lands a gig anywhere in MLB that will be a distraction at best and more likely a garbage fire.
  20. jmlease1
    you're attempting to parse grammar rules in a way that misinterprets the intent of the speaker. It doesn't matter if that's the "correct" way to read the use of "could" in this statement, Francona was almost certainly trying to convey the idea that Bauer had been a problem in the clubhouse at times. It wasn't just "well, this guy might detonate the clubhouse in the future".
  21. jmlease1
    not really the same thing. Bauer is a bad teammate and at best a "difficult" personality with borderline criminal sexual practices, an embrace of bigotry, and shows no remorse for his attitude or behavior. Kirby was a beloved teammate whose problems mostly arose after he was forced into early retirement through fluke injury and was almost certainly having mental health issues that needed treatment. It doesn't excuse his actions, but it puts them in a different context than Bauer. No interest in Bauer here. Everything about him screams "bad guy".
  22. jmlease1
    i think it's less about that and more about trying to maximize his contract? At least initially, SFG & NYM offered more. More dollars, more years. And you can't take stuff like this personally in free agency. If we'd gone 12/$350M out the gate, he probably would have signed with us. If we'd gone 12/$325M when the SFG deal collapsed, we probably win that one.
  23. jmlease1
    Sale does nothing for me. His prime has come and gone, he's barely pitched since 2019, and he's owed a ton of money. His last mostly healthy year he was decent but hardly great, and it's hard to think that he's going to recover his form at age 34. he looks like a guy who is breaking down and falling apart. (I also recall him being a...difficult personality in his last years with the ChiSox?) For every Verlander there's 5 guys that never really get it back after TJ. It's been what, 5 years ago since sale was truly a frontline starter? I'm not sure he meets the "better than Sonny Gray" test to elevate the rotation. Also, i think the "frontline starters don't want to come to MN" idea is a little overblown; Wheeler is the one we know told us to eff off, but he told anyone who wasn't east coast the same thing. Bumgarner (maybe) but again...he wanted AZ, much like Wheeler wanted Philly (and I'd say we dodged a bullet there). I think in the other cases of us missing out on a frontline starter it was because the team didn't want to give the money or the years (or both).
  24. jmlease1
    About the only reason to bring in Wacha is if the Twins don't think Mahle and/or Maeda will be ready to pitch on opening day. The rotation looks solid already with Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, and Ober with Varland, Winder, Woods Richardson and Balazovic waiting in AAA, and Paddack possibly back by midseason. Wacha doesn't move the needle, doesn't raise the ceiling on the starting pitching. Yes, injuries are an issue but at some point you have to let guys like Ober, Varland, Woods Richardson etc pitch. I'm a no on Wacha. Feels like spending money to spend money. Bundy's only real skill last season was health. Great, he took the ball every 5th day, but he wasn't GOOD. Would Wacha really do much more?
  25. jmlease1
    As I've stated before, I'd take the risk on Correa. 10/$285? 9/$275? fine. Would do those deals. But I don't think it's going to happen, and I don't think the twins are any kind of front-runner. There's still a chance that the Twins will end up with Correa and the Mets will end up either backing out or throwing up enough conditions and clauses that Correa walks away, but the odds are still against the Twins. Correa is a great player, and I think he's going to be a great player for the next 3-4 years at an absolute minimum. I think he'll likely age better than most, as some of his best skills at SS (positioning, arm strength, consistent glove) should age better than ones that are speed or reaction-based. With his arm, he'll be able to slide down to 3B and provide superior defense even if his range declines to where he needs to move off SS. If he keeps hitting close to where he's been at, then he's an all-star at either spot. We know he's a good guy in the clubhouse and that players gravitate to him, which is good when you expect to have young players consistently coming up. That's all good. There's risk in any deal, and it gets higher the longer it is. But Correa is the kind of player that's a) worth the risk, and b) isn't often available for the Twins. Go for it. Hells bells, no one in Twins leadership is likely to be around at the end of this contract anyways.
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