jmlease1

Sano is certainly not a bust: he was 3rd in RoY, made an all-star team, and had some fine seasons with the team. Even with the rough years, he's leaving the Twins with an OPS+ of 116 (which this season would have tied him for 6th with Jose Miranda, 1 pt behind Jorge Polanco). He had big, impactful years in 2015, 2017, and 2019 (and wasn't bad in 2021 either, with a terrific second half of the season). he couldn't do it consistently year over year, and had some stretches where he was basically in an unplayable slump. The gazillion Ks drove some people crazy, and the injuries started piling up too, reducing his availability and his impact. I think it's fair to say his overall career with the Twins was a disappointment, but only in the context of how great it could have been. We saw enough of the heights to wish it could have been like that every year for at least 4-6 seasons. instead it was every other year at best. Under no circumstances was he a bust; he made it to the majors, he had success in the majors, and when he was rolling it seemed like he carried the club for a month with his bat. It's not his fault the front office & manager threw him out in the OF for 1/3 of his appearances in 2016 (indefensible then and now), and he was certainly more impactful than many other highly touted prospects (Adam Johnson, Tyler Jay, Kohl Stewart, Levi Michael, Matt Moses...those are busts). Moving on from Sano is the right decision. but we still got good value out of him while he was here (at $8M per bWAR he far out-performed the amount we paid him). It's too bad that the highs weren't sustainable, but so be it.

And it has created stats that end up describing things differently in terms of value. For pitching, I feel like fWAR is better at predicting future value and bWAR is better at describing what actually happened during the games of the year. Does averaging them get you anything? I certainly understand a desire to change the current arbitration system, which is increasingly nonsensical. Players get substantial raises in arbitration even if their performance declines from the previous year and while I don't care a whit about saving owners money that's one of those things that's weird from a fan perspective.

I think Lopez is going to be fine. He probably won't be as dominant as he was with the O's, nor as mediocre as he was with the Twins, but I think he'll move back towards the median there. The stuff is still there and this looks more to me like a little small sample size stuff than anything else. This is also why relievers are fungible except for the truly elite: they bounce around from year to year and even within a single season.

The bullpen has been a problem only for the last two years. It was not a problem in 2019, the year after we dealt Pressly and won 101 games. Rogers, Duffey, and May were all excellent. They got good value out of Ryne Harper, Littell, Stashak and moved on from Blake Parker before he wrecked anything (and still wasn't terrible overall) and replaced him with Romo who was excellent down the stretch. Heck, they got great value out of Mike Morin. The bullpen was a non-issue in 2019. 2020 it wasn't really an issue either: Rogers wasn't as good (may have just been small sample size), but Clippard & Wisler were excellent and Alcala & Thielbar emerged. Duffey was still great, and May & Romo were still fine. seems like you've got some recentcy bias that's driving your argument. I mean, I guess 2 years counts as "years", but it's pretty disingenuous. You're acting like the bullpen has been a mess ever since the Twins dealt Pressly and the reality is very different.

It's why people are looking at WPA as a way to evaluate relievers over something simplistic like a "save". The thing that always drives me crazy with the designated closer role for your best reliever is they just won't pitch enough. Duran threw 67 innings; if he'd been in the closer role, he probably would have landed south of 60, and would have thrown way fewer high-leverage innings. Even with injuries, an 8-man bullpen will have a guy or two that pitches once a week right now (holding out the long man for a disaster start, not using a 1 inning guy in the late innings because he's only trusted to throw a low-leverage 5th or 6th inning, etc). The less you define roles by which inning a reliever throws, the more likely you are to get the most use out of your best pitchers and get real value out of every pitcher on your staff. No scholarships for the bullpen: if a guy can't be trusted outside of an extremely limited role...move on and get someone who can. And I think everyone agrees: no Pagan in 2023, closer or not.

Could not agree more. Having a designated closer frequently means the team's best (or one of their best) relievers doesn't pitch as often as they should or could in meaningful situations. The Twins haven't gotten their bullpen consistently right the last two seasons, but this is an area where they have been smarter.

Brunansky spent 3+ years in the minors, Gaetti spent 3 years in the minors, Hrbek spent 2+ years in the minors, Gagne spent 4+ years in the minors. Julien has spent 2 years in the minors. It's not just about age. and remember, Gagne sucked in his first couple of attempts in the majors (and got sent back down), and Gaetti didn't hit in MLB until his 5th season in MLB either. Hrbek was the wunderkind who was ready at a young age and little experience. Brunansky was successful in MLB out the gate at a young age, but also had a lot of minor league experience. Julien will very likely start the year in AAA and get his first shot in MLB some time during 2023, depending on injuries.

There will also be games where your starter goes 6+, and there will also be games where you can ask your 2 inning longer relief guys to throw 3 rather than 2. You can ask your shorter relievers to throw back to back games from time to time, or throw for 4 outs rather than 3. The point is, you have to use all 8 spots in your bullpen and not "save" pitchers for overly specific situations like save situations or long relief in a blowout and then look back in a week and realize that you have two guys in the bullpen who didn't throw in any of that week's games. You also can't have a Chris Archer as a pitcher who can't even make it to 5 innings as a starter and is capped at 75 pitches. My point is really that teams have lost the long reliever, treating them only as a mop-up guy, and pushed relievers to be max-effort, 1 inning guys as the priority for use. Starters aren't going to suddenly start throwing more unless they show they can thrive in that 3rd time through the order, so you have to patch the game together differently. trying to run out 4 relievers a night on 1 inning efforts and hope that you get enough 6+ inning jobs from your starter is a fools errand.

As a RH hitter, Martin would be well-suited to a super-utility role. Celestino will need to up his game to be the regular backup in CF. I think they'll take a long look at him in spring training, but ultimately I expect him to land in AAA to start the season. besides, we're bringing back Correa...right? Right? RIGHT?!?!? ?

This is what throws me as well. with an 8-man bullpen, there's no reason you can't have 2 guys designated to throw 2 innings in their relief appearances and still have enough 1 inning monsters to close out your games. the sequencing works: SP1 throws 5 innings LongRP1 throws 2 innings ShortRP1 throws 1 inning ShortRP2 throws 1 inning Game 2: SP1 throws 5 innings ShortRP3 throws 1 SRP4 throws 1 SRP5 throws 1 SRP1 comes back and throws 1 on a back to back Game 3: SP3 throws 5 innings LongRP2 throws 2 SRP6 throws 1 SRP2 throws 1 Now, for game 4 your first 2 inning guy has had 2 days off and should be ready to throw 2 innings again if needed. But you have to actually treat all your bullpen spots as being pitchers you will use, not holding 1 guy as a mop-up man or only slotting certain guys to pitch the 7th, etc. Getting more consistent health out of the rotation is going to be hugely important; twins had 12 guys make at least 3 starts for them in 2022, but only 4 make at least 20. Bundy's best attribute last year was availability: he actually lead the team with 29 starts...but unfortunately (and somewhat predictably) they weren't above-average ones. I think they could make this work with the rotation we have (although I still favor going after a top-end guy like Rodon), but they can't be afraid to have relievers that they expect to throw 2 innings fairly consistently.

I'm not a fan of handing out multi-year, big-money deals for most relievers. I look at the Twins bullpen and really see only one need right now: one more RH arm to insure us against Alcala not coming back strong from injury. Fulmer quality or above. (Trevor May is interesting for a bounceback candidate at a good price, Fulmer is someone I would be happy to have back, etc. All of them on a 1 + team option deal, in the $4-6M AAV range) the other way I'd look at the 'pen is 6 1 inning(ish) guys and 2 2 inning guys. Lopez, Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and Alcala fit the 1 inning mold. Winder, Sands, Maeda, and/or Moran could fit the 2 inning mold. If Maeda starts, I'd think about slotting Winder & Sands into a planned 2 inning role and float Moran into the 1 inning crew for the later innings. If we sign a Fulmer/May type, Moran goes to the 2 inning group with Winder/Sands. bridge us better from 5 inning starts to the late innings and Duran/Lopez. Splurging big money on relievers just doesn't seem like good value to me. Hendriks has been amazing...but his ERA, FIP, and WHIP have all gone up the past 3 years. Trend or no? Diaz was a monster in 2018, bad in 2019, a monster again in 2020, just ok in 2021, and a monster again in 2022. Stuff like that happens with relievers, even great ones all the time. Smaller samples and wild volatility. Very few Joe Nathans, who dominate for 6 years in a row exist. If you find one, pay 'em...but I'd rather not sign and hope.

interesting idea! I think if you're still under "budget" like this I'd look to upgrade the 4th OF slot with a hitter like Wil Myers over Garlick. (and it would provide better insurance if Martin isn't ready for MLB pitching yet) I think it's more likely that kirilloff is on the this roster than Wallner, but you never know with health?

Let's calm down a little. I'm a big fan of both players, but the AFL is roughly AA from a competition/talent level and neither Julien or Martin have ever played above AA at this point. That's a big jump. I'm perfectly fine with moving on from Kepler, since we have a barrel full of LH corner OF options, and it seems unlikely that Kepler will ever have a year like 2019 again without a juiced ball (although ending the shift will help a few of his bouncers to the right side bleed through next season). but Polanco is a very different case. he had a down year, but still had an OPS+ of 117 and should get back some of his power with better health. Tossing him in favor of the unproven tandem of Julien/Martin seems foolish, especially since Polanco is still on a very good contract. It will be especially interesting for Julien if baseball moves to an automated strike zone by the time he reaches MLB. Might help him stay good in terms of controlling the zone. If his power production from the AFL translates for him next season, he could be a monster at the plate. I'm really glad to see Martin having a strong AFL season. His lack of power in Wichita this season was concerning, and it's good to see him back to showing elite contact skills but with a little more pop behind them. Still a small sample size, but it suggests that maybe the approach he's working with right now can be successful for him, especially with his speed. I think he should start in AAA, but he's definitely someone that should push Celestino if he has to move off the infield long-term. I have trouble assessing the pitchers the Twins sent to the AFL; when you only have 10-15 innings to judge a player that stats aren't as helpful. It doesn't take much to blow up someone's ERA, WHIP, etc. Shreve seems to be making a case for himself, though? Maybe he's the next Laweryson.

Let's not overstate things here, ok? Hard to say a trade involving a reliever cost the Twins 2019, when they won 101 games. Would Pressly have been useful in the playoffs? Sure, but it wouldn't have changed the fact that our high-powered offense only scored 7 runs in 3 games. or that our "best" option to start Game 2 was Randy Dobnak. Not trading Pressly wouldn't have done anything to change the fact that Kepler, Sano, and Garver (key players all season for the Twins) did nothing in the playoffs or that Buxton was hurt. Hell, the bullpen in 2019 was pretty dang good for the Twins, with Rogers, May, and Duffey all having excellent seasons...and we didn't give up anything of note for ether Dyson (a bust) or Romo (excellent down the stretch). is anyone clamoring for Lewin Diaz or Jaylin Davis? (if you really want them, pretty sure we could acquire them quite easily) Would have loved to have Pressly on the team, but it was a reasonable trade a the time (the Twins were 8 games back of the division and even further back in the wild card) and you can't predict injuries. Alcala looked very promising in 2020 and was developing well in 2021, and was expected to be a significant contributor this season to the Twins bullpen before he got hurt. If he bounces back from the injury he could be a weapon in 2023, because he's absolutely death to right-handed batters already. Celestino is a talented CF who will be a quality 4th OF and backup CF option if he continues to develop as a hitter. He was thrown into the fire too soon in 2021, and I think that's colored some people's perception on who he is. I'm not going to hammer the front office because they couldn't see the Alcala injury coming 3 1/2 years before it happened...

Doubtful. Maeda had a great first year with the Twins and was incredibly important and impactful for us on a team that made the playoffs and won a division title. Even with this year being lost to injury and last season being partially wiped out, we still have gotten more value out of Maeda than Graterol has produced. Starters are still more valuable than relievers, and Maeda finished #2 in the Cy for us! Graterol is a useful reliever, but is he better than say...Griffin Jax? (awfully similar stats when you look at WPA, bWAR, ERA, WHIP, FIP for last season. Graterol only clearly pips Jax in ERA+, but Jax pips him on one of the greatest abilities...availability.) No regrets about that deal; we got what we needed.

It is still a team game. Which is why the twins fell apart this year and the Astros didn't. MN: 4th most players on the IL in 2022. Houston: 4th least. MN: 2nd most days lost to injury in MLB. Houston: 3rd least. healthy, the Twins had a quality roster (most evidenced by their early season success, before they were down to starting the 8th OF on their depth chart). When you have a decent enough roster, then you also need star power to compete at the highest levels and get you through the playoffs. It's where stud pitching really comes into play, but also at other positions as well. Correa's an elite talent and that's where I want to spend the team's big dollars. Pena is still under team control, and having young players step up while on small salaries is almost always important (and worked out nicely for the Twins in 2019, when Garver was making $575K, Berrios $620K, Sano was at $2.7M, Buxton $1.8M, Rogers $1.5M, May $900K and Polanco & Rosario didn't clear $8M between them). Finding a home-grown SS is something the Twins have been trying to accomplish since God was a corporal and we haven't been very good at it...but that's about the only way you get that kind of production at Pena's price. Our most successful attempts in the last 40 years are probably: Greg Gagne, who never made an all-star game and we acquired from NY as a minor leaguer. Jason Bartlet, whose 1 all-star appearance game after leaving the twins...and we didn't draft or sign him either. Christian Guzman, who did make an all-star team as a twins SS...once, and we traded for him too. And then there's Jorge Polanco, who made the all-star team at SS, but was moved off the position because he's not very good defensively at SS and couldn't stay healthy there. (and even injured this season had a better year at 2B than all but one of his years in MLB at SS) It might happen with Royce Lewis when he recovers from his latest knee injury, or Brooks Lee, or Noah Miller...but we've missed a lot here. Correa is a finished product and ready to go.

That Diaz contract is bad. A 5 year deal for a reliever coming off a career year at $20M per? Yikes. He was awesome this year. He's been awesome before. But he's followed up an awesome season with a disappointing one more than once (see also, 2019 & 2021).

There's no question that getting another catcher is a need, but there are a fair number of "good defense, no hit" catchers out there than can be had for relatively low cost and won't vanish on Day 1 of FA. There's a much smaller number of complete catchers than add offensive value and quality defense, on any team. It has to be addressed, but it's less pressing than say, SS where our in-house options are: Polanco (who isn't a SS any longer), Gordon (who the Twins have never seen as a SS in an MLB capacity), Lewis (who won't be ready until mid-season at the very earliest, and possibly not at all because injury), Martin (never played above AA and has questions about his ability to field the position), and Lee (just barely arrived in the organization and has only a handful of ABs at AA). At least with a healthy Jeffers we have a catcher who most non-Twins fans would consider a starting quality catcher. I think the reason Jeffers gets bashed so much is the curse of familiarity: we see his Mendoza line every day. Fans of other teams would look at his stats and go "at least your guy hits the occasional dinger!"

I wouldn't DH him only, but I look at him as a guy I want to play 140+ games per season as healthy as possible. That might mean he only plays 80 games in the field as opposed to 100+? He certainly is starting to look like he's more than competent at 1B, which doesn't hurt a bit.

i think the best argument for moving Arraez off 1B is just to give his aching knees more rest. but despite not having great height/reach and limited familiarity with the position he did well. Correa certainly passed the eye test for me and I wasn't surprised to see him ranking high and getting GG consideration.

In theory this is true, but assumes that the new teams immediately changed directions and/or the player stopped doing the things that were making them successful and healthy, and I think that's an assumption that you simply can't make. Beyond that, Garver had injury problems with the Twins before getting traded, Odorizzi's last season with the Twins was wrecked by injury, and Taylor Rogers missed a huge chunk of time in his last season with the Twins as well. (and with Cruz, isn't it just more likely that Father Time finally caught up with him?) So I don't think these are great examples for how a return to TwinsLand will improve performance and/or health. If Rortvedt were a minor-league FA would I try to sign him as AAA depth? Sure, because he's a talented defender even if he can't hit and as a lefty hitter maybe they could find something to unlock still, however unlikely, but as a minor league depth guy why not have the kid from WI? But it's hard to have much confidence that he's going to have a big bounce back as a hitter post-injury when he's never hit before.

I'm sorry, but what indicators are there that Garver would have been healthier if he had stayed a Twin? We were one of the most injured teams in baseball last season. I was one of the biggest Rortvedt backers there was, but there's very little to suggest that he can hit at the MLB level, especially considering his minor league track record and the fact that he turns 25 this year. The power potential we were hoping for has never materialized (he's slugged over .400 exactly once in his career at any level), he doesn't make tons of contact, he doesn't make lots of hard contact, and his best stint as a hitter was 2021 in Saint Paul over 34 games...which might be small sample size rearing it's very ugly head. I really don't understand the drive people have to dump Jeffers. He works well with pitchers, calling a good game and getting them extra strikes. Even if pitch framing goes away with robo-strike zone, that means Jeffers can (and almost certainly will) focus more on blocking the plate and potentially throwing. I'm not sure why people think that when pitch-framing goes away he'll suddenly be useless back there. Jeffers pounds lefties, which is certainly something this Twins team needs (Rortvedt doesn't hit anyone). he's also still under team control and pretty cheap. I'm certainly interested in Narvaez, but as a partner for Jeffers.

One of the reasons his memory still shines so brightly for many, especially in MN is because of the nature of that first senate campaign which was strongly supported by young people, many of whom were getting involved in politics for the first time. The Wellstones didn't just inspire those people to help with his campaign, they inspired them to public service beyond it, and so many of those people who "rode the green bus" continued to work in politics and government afterwards. That has an almost generational impact, and when that life is cut tragically short in magnifies the impact of memory. I was working in DC at the time for the Pentagon, and was in a meeting when their plane went down. When I got back to my desk, I had 2 voicemails, 6 emails, and a post-it on my monitor from my boss asking me to come see him so he could break the news gently.

Angels & Marlins both did this. Doesn't seem to have done anything for them, and both were in states that had other teams. Not sure a rebrand to represent less territory would do anything to help them market the brand.

It's fine, but weirdly I'd miss having the red dot on the top of the cap.