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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Severino is showing why the Twins went after him hard when the Braves cheating opened the opportunity. Yes, the Ks are something to watch out for, but he's also drawing walks, and the power is impressive. He was good last season at Wichita and right now he seems determined to prove it wasn't just small sample size. I expect Cossetti will advance quickly if he keeps pounding Low-A like this. Yes, he's a bit older as a college bat, but the FSL is still a tough league to hit in, so this is a good sign. (I wonder if this is the kind of production they thought they were going to get from Sabato?) Contreras is a tough eval. He's off to an excellent start, but he's also 28. He was just ok in AAA last season, and didn't impress in his short stint in MLB. But it's a great start. Does he just need an opportunity, or is he a AAAA player? Think it's going to be tough for him to get any run in MLB this season with Kirilloff and Wallner ahead of him as lefty OF bats. not surprised to see Wallner doing well in AAA. Probably good for him to draw even more walks. Shuffield is doing well, but at 24 he needs to get out of the FSL and needs to stay on the field if he's going to make it as a utility guy. But probably not a lot of time available in cedar rapids right now
  2. jmlease1
    Tough break for Mahle. I'll admit to being very concerned about this injury and whether he's able to recover from it with rest/therapy and avoid surgery. We've been through this dance before with pitchers where they try to shut it down for a while and get right and avoid the knife and eventually they end up having the surgery and get knocked out for the year, so I am afeared we're facing that again. (I'm not saying it's the wrong decision to try everything you can to avoid surgery; you should always try to avoid the need for surgery if you can. It's just that the odds seem poor.) Thank goodness we have the pitching depth for the rotation to deal with this. Thankfully, Sonny Gray got his regular program in and isn't already on the IL with a bum leg. Thankfully, Joe Ryan is a horse. Thankfully, there's been no problems with Pablo Lopez. We knew Ober and Varland were going to get chances this season. their time is now.
  3. jmlease1
    Not a surprise that the return of Polanco had a significant impact on the offense: he's a heck of a player and going into the season he was clearly the 3rd best position player on the roster. Losing him for several weeks was always going to be a bit of a drag. Great week for the Twins. 5-2 is a pretty nice record. Only blemish is Mahle: that injury doesn't sound good to me, and we're very fortunate to have Varland and Ober ready to go. (I'm a little less concerned with Maeda, who I always expected to miss some time and the injury feels less serious) Big week coming up with division foes, lots of opportunity to put some real distance between us and the rest of the central.
  4. jmlease1
    That does seem to be the way this team does things: if someone needs a kick in the butt or be given some pointed instruction, etc they do it out of the view of the fans and the press. They're much more of a " keep things on an even keel" sort of squad for the most part, especially for the coaching staff and front office. That's frequently less satisfying for fans, but it's probably seen as a real positive by the players. Disappointing loss, but hopefully the team comes out on fire on sunday and takes the series. a split would be disappointing, but taking 3 of 4 would be just ducky. Ober did pretty well, looks like a major-league pitcher. Can he have a healthy season? I'd feel much more confident in him if he could get through a full season and throw 140-150 innings...
  5. jmlease1
    I've been told repeatedly on this site that we must send starters deeper into games. I'm sure Rocco would have been absolutely buried if he had lifted Lopez after 5 innings and a low pitch count with a 6-run lead. I was surprised to see Lopez have two consecutive struggle innings in the 6th and 7th, and I'd argue that Vazquez didn't do him any favors by continuing to push the breaking stuff. Good to see the offense rolling a bit right now. Jumping on a pitcher early is never bad.
  6. jmlease1
    Is there a reason this post has been at the top of the website for like 3 days?
  7. jmlease1
    I think this is right. Even an utter trash fire of a major league baseball club is going to win 40 games from somewhere (which is pretty much the pace the Royals are on) and while I'd love to collect a sweep, it'd be no shame to take 3 of 4. KC's offense has been pretty rotten, but they're probably not as bad as it's been so far. The rotation isn't good, but it's not horrible (Singer has been their worse performer to date, but he's their best starter). Twins will have to be patient at the plate and not try to win the series on one swing. We are definitely sending out a good collection of starters to try and shut down the Royals! Good opportunity, be fun to see if the players can execute.
  8. jmlease1
    It was a good series for the Twins. They've still got some things to work through, but having a top three of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan has me more confident in this rotation than I've been in a very long time. Tyler Mahle hasn't been bad (in previous years we would have been thrilled with his production), he just hasn't been as great as the others. Maeda is definitely struggling, but how many years have we been worrying about our #3 starter struggling instead of our #5? Polanco being back has made a significant difference. I felt going into the season he was the Twins 3rd best position player so there's no wonder that his bat was missed. And with Farmer out and Nick Gordon having a nightmare start to the season we've really needed him back and he was a huge contributor in the wins against the Yankees. It's early in the season, but it sure looks like I was wrong about Joey Gallo. I didn't think he was a good fit for this team, and he's been a fantastic fit so far. he hasn't just bounced back from a dreadful season, he's looking like Texas Joey again. Great to see him hammer a couple of dingers against the Yankees. he's been great, and I've never been so happy to be wrong.
  9. jmlease1
    I'm all in on Joe Ryan, who pounds the zone and piles up the outs. Excellent performance tonight, 7 nifty innings to put the Evil Empire to sleep. Gray, Lopez, and Ryan sure gives me a lot of confidence at the top of the rotation. I'm not surprised to see Polanco be such a catalyst for the offense, but it's very welcome. Nice to see Larnach making the necessary adjustments to never seeing a fastball. Be great to see him get on a run slamming slop around and see whether he starts seeing more fastballs.
  10. jmlease1
    Polanco is one of the top 3 position players on this team until someone knocks him off the perch, so it's fantastic to have him back and looking healthy. Even in a bit of an off year last season where he tried to fight through injury (and offense was down all across the league anyways) he was still a dang good player and one of the best offensive players in the league at 2B. I'm thrilled to have him back in the lineup and his switch-hitting is important. It's a little unfortunate that several of our best prospects all play his position, but they're going to have to take his spot not get it on scholarship.
  11. jmlease1
    11th best record in all of baseball. They're not as good as they were last season, but they're not a bad team. (as so far they're only 2-3 vs the Twins; last year they went 5-2 vs us. we're one of the reasons they don't look as good)
  12. jmlease1
    Very good team game last night. Gray was very tough and bullied the Evil Empire for 7 innings, but also had some nice defense behind him. And I'll probably always be happy with 10 hits and 6 BBs from the offense. Sure helps to have Polanco back in there. Neither Jax or Moran were sharp last night, but both were able to limit the damage. Would have been nice for them to be a little cleaner, but it's not always going to go that way. Moran might need a re-set in AAA, but it's also still pretty early. Good to see two LH OFs who haven't been great lately come through in Larnach (1 hit, 2 walks) and Kepler (3 hits).
  13. jmlease1
    Very impressive start to the season for Noah Miller. Sure, it's only 12 games, but so far he's showing everything you would have hoped to see this year: improved contact, harder hit balls, while maintaining a good eye at the plate and patience to draw walks. It's only his 2nd year of full-year pro ball, but it looks like he thriving so far in high A at age 20. No complaints and the team must feel pretty good about what they're seeing so far.
  14. jmlease1
    I'd say the Donaldson trade was a net win for the Twins: they got out from under a contract that wasn't a fit for where they were going and away from a player that was increasingly burdensome in the clubhouse and less effective on the field. That's really important for a team with greater payroll constraints. IKF is a decent enough utility guy, but not a significant contributor; the twins got as much value back from Gio Urshela who had a very nice year for the Twins. Sanchez was better than advertised behind the plate but never found his swing again. In just pure baseball value on the field, the Yankees did a bit better when you look at last season's production, but the contract impacts tilt it towards the Twins. I was a big Rortvedt booster but he's been totally unimpactful in that deal. In the end, trading Donaldson is definitely a net positive for the Twins and overall I think the Yankees might prefer a do-over, even if they managed to get ok production out of Donaldson and IKF collectively last season.
  15. jmlease1
    It is a bit of a complicated situation. the Twins like Gordon, but he's off to a dreadful start at the plate. Larnach has more upside, has an option, and has slowed a lot after a fast start. Castro has the same kinds of positional flexibility that Gordon has, but has an option left, and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire with his offense. I think there's a decent argument to be made that you hold on Gordon until Farmer is ready to come back, given that if Kirilloff joins the squad there isn't much available for ABs for Larnach if Buxton keeps DHing...but the choice is coming. Gordon is caught in the worst of the worst: he's been a little unlucky, but he's also been bad. there's basically no trade market for him now, and someone will take a chance on him, so I see little opportunity that he passes through waivers. I this team (like many others) struggles with knowing when to give up on one of their guys. It's one thing to cut bait on a Joe Smith 3 months in; he was an old player on a 1-year deal with no history. It's harder to be that ruthless with one of your own guys who you've seen perform better, I think. (or if it's an asset you traded for, like Pagan) Even if maybe you should. Which seems to be part of why we're sticking with kepler and Gordon, even if they really don't fit as well on the roster any longer. Sunk cost fallacy is hard to rise above.
  16. jmlease1
    Exactly the kind of game the Twins wanted to have. Really good offensive output, quality start from Ryan, and Headrick let the rest of the bullpen take the night off. Sets them up nicely for the rubber match tomorrow. Be great to steal the afternoon tilt on getaway day and finish the road trip with a series win and positive win total for the whole trip. Gallo sure seems to be determined to prove the doubters (like me) wrong. I hope he makes me look like the biggest damn fool of all time. :P
  17. jmlease1
    Rehab assignments have a pretty short timeline (20 days, I think?). After that, you have to put that player back on the 26-man roster or exercise an option to send them back down to the minors. Pretty sure that's impossible with Polanco. Kirilloff has one left I think, but I'm not sure sending him back down to AAA longer really changes anything for him. Lewis is very likely to have the option exercised to give him playing time since he's coming off a serious injury and didn't play at all in spring training. But once Polanco's rehab assignment is up, he's back on the MLB roster absent a relapse that puts him on the IL again.
  18. jmlease1
    Julien probably goes back down first, he's got an option and need to play every day. Castro goes down when Polanco comes back. Garlick is probably the next to be dropped; with his contract he will likely slide through and can come off the 40-man again, and I don't see him sticking unless Larnach is still slumping. With no options, Gordon gets more rope, same with Kepler. Twins fans need to get right with the idea that teams simply won't toss away an asset for nothing unless they have no other choice. Looking forward to having Kirilloff back on the squad, I'm a huge fan of his ability at the plate. Any time his wrist has been ok he's stung the ball, and hopefully his Kirk Gibson operation has fixed it for him.
  19. jmlease1
    very happy to see Noah Miller off to a good start at the plate. That "HR" is inflating his SLG a bit, but he's still off to a very nice start at the dish, getting hits and taking some walks. The glove looks pretty smooth with him, so it really comes down to how much his hit tool develops. If he can keep making consistent good contact I think we'll all be pretty pleased. (I'm less concerned about his power production at age 20) Enlow is off to a good start as well. It'll be interesting to see where he finishes the season. Maybe he's finally all the way back from injury. Dude has had some tough breaks: missed a key developmental year in 2020, major injury in 2021 after starting the season looking strong, tough year breaking back in as a pitcher in 2022 while also moving up a level, to getting left off the 40-man this season. He's 24 and we've been waiting and hoping for a long time with him, but if he's able to get it back together for the full season then he's an interesting player to watch.
  20. jmlease1
    With the top or the red Sox order featuring 3 LH hitters in the next 4 (including the first 2) projecting Thielbar to take the 7th makes a ton of sense. So really you're talking about maybe flipping Lopez & Jax for 6th v 8th...unless you wanted to put Pagan or Moran out against the Red Sox in the 6th, but that puts you in a different kind of problem where you're "saving" one of your best relievers for a 10th inning that might never happen. Did the manager really make an error here or did things just get weird in the 8th with Jax on the mound and it went sideways? Gray was really struggling last night, but did a fine job gutting through 5. Scattered a lot of baserunners and wriggled out of trouble. Offense needs to do better, that's just a reality. But sale was taking everything the ump was giving him...and he got a fair amount.
  21. jmlease1
    Winning road trips are great. If you go 41-40 on the road and 51-30 at home that's a nice 92 win season.
  22. jmlease1
    Feeling generally positive about the Twins chances in Boston. Would love for them to jump all over Sale a player I've never liked. Playing Boston right now is a great reminder of just how wrong i was about Trevor Story being a perfect fit for the Twins that they should have gone all in on.
  23. jmlease1
    I think it was a fine trade for both teams. Twins needed a starter, badly. LA needed bullpen help, especially cheap bullpen help. Both teams got what they wanted. Maeda's injury keeps this from being a total unqualified success for the Twins; instead of getting 4 seasons of a quality starter with the ability to be a front-line playoff pitcher, we're looking at more like 2 1/2, which is a bummer. But he was gold in 2020 and a key performer on a division winning team. Graterol hasn't been the lock-down flamethrower that can anchor the back of a bullpen like LA hoped, but he hasn't been bad either. more of a solid guy that a star, he's missed some time and arguably under performed his stuff a little, but as is more and more clear: 100mph doesn't mean that much in MLB if it's flat and straight. He's a bit too hittable for me. I think both teams are fairly happy with the results of the trade. If forced to pick a winner, I'd say it's the Twins because starters are just more valuable and harder to find than relievers.
  24. jmlease1
    This year's efforts could significantly change their FA signing track record; Correa (he was a FA after all), Vazquez, Solano, and Gallo (even if I'm still queasy about Gallo) are all FA signings that are looking pretty smart so far. We'll see. I definitely like the extension for Lopez, feels very different than say the one we made for Hughes.
  25. jmlease1
    Very exciting news! The numbers are very good for the twins, IMHO: Lopez is a quality starter and has already shown he's worth that kind of money. Whether you like fWAR or bWAR (I tend to like bWAR more for pitchers as showing what they actually did and their value, and fWAR for trying to get a feel for future value) Lopez has already been worth that kind of contract that last two seasons, and that's even with him missing substantial time in 2021. I'm frankly amazed that it's only a 4 year deal at this money; I honestly would have expected 5-6 years as more likely, or higher money at fewer years. That's really good business for the team. At the same time it's life-changing, generational money for Lopez and his family, so I can understand his desire to get locked in and guaranteed. He'll still have an opportunity to test free agency at an age where guys can still command huge money if he performs anywhere near his capacity over this contract. Locking in Lopez long-term feels like a great move. The interesting comp is Berrios, who was a more accomplished and consistent pitcher when Toronto acquired him than Lopez was when the Twins acquired him. Lopez might have been seen as having a higher ceiling, but Berrios had been both consistent and healthy. Twins got an extra 1/2 season in control by acquiring Lopez in the off-season, but otherwise...lots of similarities. Berrios got a longer and higher AAV for his extension (which to date has been not so great), so this is interesting. the Rodon comp is interesting as well: Rodon had probably more significant health risks, but had also proven that ceiling after 2022. He also had more negotiating power as a free agent, but it's a huge difference in years and dollars. If that's the going rate for starting pitchers...this looks like good business indeed.
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