jmlease1

These are outstanding stories.

law was also the first national guy in on Balazovic, so there may be a little bias there. I think he's being a bit unfair to Raya in the assessment of his actual performance: 10.5 k/9 and a WHIP of 1.077 is pretty impressive for a 19 year-old kid who skipped rookie ball and went straight to A-ball. he's penalizing him for arm problems in 2021...that didn't come up in 2022? The size could end up being the bigger issue, but if Raya keeps getting guys out, then just call him Yoda and put him on the mound. It's a reasonable upside pick here. I know Twins staff is very very high on him. I'd like for him to get a taste of AA by season's end, but more importantly I want him to crack 100 innings.

name names, please. Who on this pitching staff (outside of Pagan) is "really bad"? But let's contrast to opening day last season: we're looking at 60% of the rotation being different (No Bundy, no Archer, and Ober likely in the minors), and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who wouldn't say that replacing those three with Mahle, Lopez, and Maeda isn't an improvement. The bullpen has changed as well: no Duffey, no Joe Smith, no Coloumbe, no Cotton, no Romero. the bullpen at the end of last season was more than solid, and that's who they brought back. It's old? Maeda is 34, Gray is 33. The rest of the starters are like 27, and only get younger after that. Thielbar is old, but Lopez is only 30, even Pagan is only 32. the rest are under 30. (Alcala, Duran, Megill, Jax, & Moran are the most likely to stick in MLB right now) Last year's team was right around or just below league average in FIP, ERA+, and ERA. That's not good, but it's also not "really bad". ERA+ is adjusted for park effects; league average was 101, the twins were 98. League average in FIP was 3.97, Twins were 4.03. League ERA was 3.96, Twins were 3.98. Really bad are teams like the Pirates or Royals. the Twins were in the middle third of the league last year, and their pitching should be better...even if they get hit with an injury bug again.

If we're talking about Gibson, he did get 160 hits in a season (167 in 1985) but he also won an MVP and 2 World Series. Didn't hit 30 HRs, but totals were lower during his prime and he still hit over 25 HRs 4 times. Might not have been voted in to the all-star game, but deserved it at least 3 times. A guy isn't a good player because he crosses over an arbitrary round number.

If Correa bounces back on the metrics that will make a significant difference. But I'm a little confused on how Miranda is assessed: the metrics have him as league average at 3B last year, and that's the position he's slated to play full-time this season, why are we assessing him as not being good defensively in 2022? he struggled at 1B, which was essentially a brand-new position for him, but the metric and eye test have him as being average/passable at 3B. I dunno. I look at the team and Miranda looks to be pretty average, Correa superior (even if he had a down year last season defensively by the metrics), Polanco below average, and Kirilloff to be above average. there's no disasters out there. the infield defense (especially if you include the catching) looks solid at worst to me. Polanco gets whacked on pretty hard for his defense around here, I think. Polanco was pretty good defensively in 2021, dipped a little last year (not coincidentally when missing a lot more time for injury), so projecting him to be bad this season at 2B based primarily on last season alone might be a little too negative? Jorge Polanco was arguably better than Jose Altuve just as recently as 2021, maybe we shouldn't be looking to toss him on the scrap heap just yet.

I forget who was in first place in the division for like 3 months of the season last year? Detroit? No, that was the Twins! This wasn't a bad team last year until everyone got hurt. When you're starting your 10th choice in the OF in September, then there's a problem, but it's not that the team as a whole was bad. (I mean in a critical september series we had to run out cave, celestino, and contreras as the starting OF with Billy hamilton, Jermaine palacios, and Sandy Leon as the bench options. but that was because injuries wiped out everyone) The twins have not spent on the bullpen because they have rightly seen that the variance in performance often doesn't get you anything when you drop $3-6M AAV on a guy, and you're often better off finding internal options and sorting through cheaper guys that you can churn if they show they don't have it any longer. That's been the Tampa model: get 3-5 core pieces in your 'pen, and then fill it in more on the fly as you need to, without giving starter money to fungible relievers. Would I have preferred they go sign a guy and replace Pagan? Sure, because I'm worried about sunk cost fallacy and fan PTSD with Pagan and there looked to be guys that were RH options for $3-5M that could have bene trustworthy hands. but overall the bullpen looks pretty good, with some high upside guys in there and few who we're hoping will have a bounce back year. Thielbar has been very good for 3 years; it's a little silly to question him based on him being out of baseball years ago. Jax had a very successful year as a reliever, there's little reason to think he can't be successful this season. Duran was amazing, and relief seems to be the best way to keep his elbow healthy, not a reason to be more concerned. Moran has control issues, but has an awesome changeup and isn't slated to be a high-leverage guy. Alcala was quality before injury. Lopez might be the biggest question mark (outside of PTSD Pagan), but showed the talent to be an all-star. There are questions about the bullpen, but you can probably make the same or equally valid questions about every bullpen in baseball. take the ChiSox: their elite closer is going to miss significant time (if not the whole season) because of cancer treatments, their next best reliever (reynaldo lopez) last season just became a full-time reliever in 2022. Their most used reliever last season has had his WPA decline for 3 seasons in a row, and their 2nd most used reliever from last year has had a negative WPA 4 years in a row. neither of these guys (Graveman & Ruiz) have particularly strong peripherals (WHIP of 1.4? That was Tyler Duffey last season and we cut him). Twins bullpen looks pretty solid.

He's a really interesting player. His best position is "hitter", but you can almost always find room on the roster for someone who has those kind of skills at the plate, assuming he continues to hit like this. The eye at the plate is interesting, because you would normally expect that ability to generate walks to slide back a little as he advanced in level once he started facing pitchers with better control, but that's never happened to him. the one hiccup he had was in the half-season at high A where he wasn't getting hits, and that's probably where some evaluators are seeing some concern: if he doesn't get the hits and punish the ball when he does swing at it, then how much upside does he have when he's facing guys who aren't giving away ABs because they can't find the zone? but with Julien, the slugging has always been there; the .456 SLG in low A probably has more to do with it being the FSL than any flaw in his approach, especially since he was chasing .500 again when he moved up to cedar rapids. He mashed again in AA, and the .490 SLG plays just fine. he nuked the AFL in that short stint. The lack of a great defensive home is a bit of an issue, but his eye at the plate is pretty fantastic, especially at his stage of development. He doesn't have great speed, but does appear to be a quality baserunner; considering how often he gets on base, if he can swipe 10-15 bags a season through good jumps and smart choices at a good clip, then that's real value. (He's a career 77% base-stealer in the minors; if that can stay above 70% than it really does add to his value) I think he's probably going to be a 1B/DH guy who can fill in at a couple of other spots...but you don't really want him there regularly. But a .400 OBP and .450-.500 SLG plays anywhere. (his lack of defensive acumen at 2B/3B is less worrisome with Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, and Royce Lewis coming through, along with Miranda & Correa already on the roster and oh yeah let's not forget Polanco) he should be a very fun watch in Saint Paul, and I expect to see him him at Target Field sometime this year.

Apparently you don't need guys who have a prime where they average around 4 bWAR per season over 7-8 years. I guess you're another one of those "if they're not an MVP I don't need to know their name" fans. Of course, that's not really how baseball works, so maybe you should find a new sport. If Kirilloff returns from his early injury problems to be as productive as Gibson or Lankford, then it's a huge win for the Twins.

Why does playing for a small market have anything to do with whether a player is worthy of the Hall of Fame? A player should not get extra credit just because they play for the $#^$@* Yankees or Dodgers. A player should not get any demerits because they played for the Twins or Pirates or Royals. That's a ridiculous statement packed in a group of bad takes. Mauer played 10 years as a catcher and 15 seasons in total. Is there a new rule that I'm unaware of mandating that a player has to play more seasons at a particular position to get in to the Hall? Is there a rule that says you have to play on a good team to be a Hall of Fame player? There's a ton of players in the Hall who had no postseason success (remember, there were a lot fewer opportunities in earlier years). If you're going to exclude Mauer on this kind of criteria get ready to throw a lot of guys out of the Hall. The idea of a "small hall" where Willie Mays & Babe Ruth are the standard is long, long gone. It doesn't mean that everyone gets in, but Mauer is arguably one of the top 10 catchers of all-time and if he can't get in because he didn't play in a big market then I really have no idea what is going on here.

Mauer is also hurt badly here because of the some of the local media in MN. People like Dan Barreiro openly detested him (in part because Mauer had no interest in being on his show, I'm sure) and bagged on him frequently. When you have prominent media guys bashing on the star all the time (favorite complaints were about the contract, his RBI totals, and dumbest of all: him taking "too many walks") it hurts the rep with the fans, especially when they're frustrated about the team not having success in the playoffs, losing players like Johan (and not getting the pieces needed to really reload), and the injuries. But Mauer was awesome, and I have nothing but contempt for the haters. He was a terrific catcher and hit like few others. He should have won the Gold Glove at 1B in 2017, he deserved every one of his all-star appearances, deserved the MVP (another reason Mauer catches flak; bitter NYY fans who think the Sainted Jeter got robbed), and was simply an amazing player. 3 batting titles as a catcher? Look at what passes for hitting at catcher these days, does anyone think we'll see that again? Mauer's a no-doubt HoFer to me. Molina gets extra credit for the postseason, but you can't hold that against Mauer. It's not Mauer's fault that Cuzzi completely blew a call or that he played on teams with terrible rotations, or that Liriano's elbow exploded, or that management made staggeringly bad evaluations of guys like Nishioka or Park. I'd take Mauer as my catcher over Molina, who was an all-star caliber player for really only a few years and a good to very good player for most of his prime. Molina had 2 season with more than 5 bWAR. Mauer had 5, even with the injuries.

Didn't know that Gibson had essentially the same procedure! It's sorta nice to know that this isn't unprecedented in MLB. I really hope this fixes the issue for Kirilloff. I'm convinced of his talent and see him as a guy who will hit lasers all over the ballpark. I think his walk rate probably goes up a little; there's no question that he knows the strike zone, and I expect he'll work the count a little more to get the pitch he wants...and lay off the stuff that MLB pitchers will try and get him to chase. But he will be aggressive and go for hits. 15-20 HRs is more than reasonable, and I think he's the kind of player who can hit 40 doubles if he's healthy for a full season. Sure could be fun if he's finally found the solution to that balky wrist. He's such a talented hitter.

If the Twins make the World Series, which they haven't done in over 30 years, wouldn't that be a signal that dealing Arraez was the right move? Good grief.

Some of this might depend on where you land on his changeup. If that is/becomes a plus pitch then I think even KLaw would be looking at him a little differently. It's fair to be concerned on whether he will have a problem with hard contact if he doesn't have those plus pitches...but as noted above, this wasn't an issue for him in AAA. He's got good deception in his delivery, but will that big figured out once he's in MLB and guys get a lot more tape on him and experience it? So far that hasn't really happened to Joe Ryan. I'm a fan of SWR. He's has some real bumps in his development path that were outside of his control. Traded at 18 during his first full year as a pro in 2019. No minor league ball in 2020. Jumped up to AA after not pitching for a year. Sent to the Olympics but didn't get to pitch, then traded again in 2021. Missed extended time again last season because of COVID (don't underestimate this; I'm six weeks past my initial diagnosis and I'm still struggling some days) but got promoted twice and still made his MLB debut. It's not exactly how you would draw it up for developing a high school pitcher...but he keeps getting guys out. the Twins had to basically rebuild him in 2021 after they got him in the trade, and they (and he) deserve credit for getting him back on track. It will also be interesting to see where his slider and curve end up. If both can be solid pitches for him, now we're looking at a guy who has four pitches he can use and one of the ways you make up for not having as much pure stuff is to have more options to go to. It's much easier to sit on a pitch if you know the player only really throws 2 of them. Sometimes being able to throw 4 pitches can make them all a little more effective because guys won't be sure what's coming, especially if there's good deception in the delivery. We'll see. The production has been good so far, he's only 22, and starting in AAA is a good place for him this season. Right now I think he's the 3rd guy to call up (assuming Ober & Varland both start in AAA) if needed in the rotation and I have to say that makes me feel pretty good, because 2 years ago i would have been over the moon to have a pitcher like him be the FIRST call up from AAA. If his change continues to develop, he can keep his mechanics in line, and sharpen up one or two of his other pitches he could be a very good starter. I mean, where would he be, if his development path hadn't gotten knocked around by outside forces basically every year?

seriously. Once they've assessed his health against being back throwing full-time on the mound and built up his arm, he could advance quickly, but 2025 is a much more likely arrival date, and that's without significant setbacks.

I thought this was a really smart draft pick. there's definitely risk attached here, but the upside is immense and when you nail a sure thing with your first round pick there's room to add some risk/reward with your second rounder. I expect he'll spend several weeks at the complex in Ft. Myers, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him moved over to A-ball (which is conveniently in ft. Myers as well). they'll watch his innings carefully, but he's an exciting pitcher with serious upside. he might not come back all the way from injury, he might be a guy who gets hurt a lot and never lives into the talent. but there's no guarantee that will happen. It's just one risk factor, and weighed against his potential, I think it's a great pick and when you consider the ceiling he makes a lot of sense here.

Someone will still dropped, though: we get 13 pitchers on the active roster, period. Pagan is the most on the bubble for me (and everyone else that's not in twins management as far as I can tell), but if you keep 7 starters, then you only get 6 relievers. A piggyback strategy made sense to me last season when we were running out Archer (who couldn't get past the 4th inning much of the time) or Bundy (whom we didn't want pitching any deeper than the 5th most of the time), but we our top 5 starters i think there's more belief and faith that they can go deeper more consistently. The other issue is whether or not the guys who have trained as a starter and prep in that way for a known starting assignment can adapt to warming up in a very different fashion and coming in mid-game. Maeda could do it...but has incentives tied to his number of starts, which could be an issue. I do think the twins should be looking at having 1-2 pitchers in their bullpen that are able to go 2+ innings consistently and be planned to deploy as those bridge pitchers (and would love to drop Pagan in favor of that!)...but I don't think that's the best way to manage Varland's career right now.

I think you're doing Martin an injustice here: being tagged as unlikely to stick at SS isn't "defensively challenged"; Martin has the speed and skill to be at least average in CF and plus in the corners, and potentially a plus at 2B (a little unclear at 3B; he might not have the arm for it, but his range could be great). If Salas has a defensive profile similar to Martin it mostly means he's unlikely to stick at SS, not that he's going to be a poor defender.

You're absolutely right that a lot of evaluators will value projectability and tools (especially for younger prospects at lower levels) over production. And I don't think it's unreasonable to put a little more value on production (I'd argue it's less subjective than evaluating tools, but getting the context right for that production can be a little more slippery). And some of it about ceiling vs floor too: the ceiling is probably quite a bit higher for Salas as a toolsy teenager in the low minors than for Wallner, who was never really young for any level he played at in pro baseball. At the same time, the fact that wallner has already debuted in MLB shows that his floor is already higher than Salas. I think a team's prospect list has to have some balance in it; you hope you're not counting on too many toolsy teenagers to make it happen, nor do you want to be overloaded with guys who may already be close to their ceilings.

Part of Vargas' problem with the Twins was he could only really play 1B or DH (and he wasn't exactly elite defensively at 1B). Mauer was already in place at 1B, and Sano was starting to compete for some of those DH ABs as well. And to be a primary DH you need to hit. Vargas never showed he could do it consistently enough at a high level. Good potential in his first stint in 2014, poor in 2015. Good production in 2016...and then he fell off again in 2017. Maybe he would have done better if he'd been given more consistent opportunities...but he also would have gotten more consistent opportunities if he'd produced better. It's a little surprising he didn't get a chance in 2018, but at the same time...he didn't exactly light the world on fire at AAA and demand the opportunity on a team that needed the help. I'm not that surprised he got a minor league deal, but it's hard to say how much he's got to offer at this point. (Mexican league stats aren't great indicators?) I expected Sano would get signed this offseason, but it sounds like there are still questions about his knee. If he's not healthy, there's not really much reason for a team to give him a major-league deal right now and I'm guessing he's not interested in a minor league one. If he's healthy, he's worth taking a flyer on, even if the odds are good he'll break down again at some point. With the universal DH, there's probably at least a few teams that could use his power, but his lack of consistent splits might actually be hurting him right now. I'm guessing teams looking at him are trying to add RH power to punish LHP in more of a limited role, and that's not really Sano. When he's going good, he hits everybody and hits them into orbit, and when he's going poorly he can't hit water if he fell out of a $*&@% boat. If the knee isn't sound, then he's probably not going to hit anyone? Good luck to them both. Vargas always seemed like a good dude, and I never bore the hate for Sano that others did.

I think it's hard to push a prospect that is showing up in respected top 100 rankings (or just outside of it) much further down. ESPN has Salas at 94, for example. At his age, a lot of it is based on projection and he certainly has that. When you factor in his upside, it's hard to say there are 10 better prospects in the twins system than salas right now.

Right now, who would you bet on being more successful in 2023: Varland or Mahle, Ryan, Gray, Maeda, Lopez? Which one of those guys are you dropping from the rotation to let Varland "play ball!"? Varland only has 5 solid starts in MLB, 4 starts in AAA, options left, and work remaining on his offspeed pitches. Being a "hometown favorite" (btw, he pitched DII and few people knew who he was until the twins drafted him) is a bad reason to value a player over others. he should start in AAA. He'll get opportunities this season and likely be in the rotation full-time no later than 2024 if he continues to perform.

It's not like Miranda went from being a 230lb slugger to a 170lb slap hitter. This is fairly normal stuff from players after their first experience in MLB: seeing what other guys are doing to get in/stay in shape, be successful, not wear down, etc. I've seen absolutely nothing to suggest that the twins are significantly changing Miranda's approach at the plate.

I think they would have looked at Radke's WHIP, his ability to keep the ball in the park, generate groundballs, his plus changeup, his durability in moving up from low A to AA in 2 seasons and thought "this guy's a prospect!" Radke had an excellent season in AA at age 21 and got promoted to MLB the next season (likely a year too early, but the 1995 Twins stunk, needed the help, and they could afford to let him learn on the job). I don't think they would have written off Brad Radke just because he didn't have high K/9 and a blazing fastball. I think most of the posters complaining about the Twins pitching today would also complain about Radke "not being an ace" if Twins daily had been around back then too, so... Varland has enough gas to compete, but he'll need to sharpen the offspeed stuff and cut down the walks to be mentioned in the same sentence as Brad Radke.

I like Varland. I think he needs to sharpen his offspeed pitches and reduce his walks to really be successful in MLB, but he certainly has shown that he can adapt and grow as a pitcher so far during his career. If he can keep building out that change-up, for example, as an out pitch I think that will really help him. The fastball plays, even if it's not a plus velocity (he can dial it up to 97mph, though, so there's capacity) and I think he someone who can chew up innings and get results. Avoid free passes and that WHIP starts looking much better. He's a heck of a success story. Great developmental work by the team, and finding those lower-round, less heralded picks and turning them into real prospects is incredibly important. Varland's got the right make up to be a success and showed he can improve his tools through work and process. Love it. He'll be pitching in the rotation this season and be locked in for next season, I think.

as goals these are all reasonable. remember, he's not saying "this is what these guys will do" or even "this is was I expect from each player". This is "what's an attainable goal for each player" and none of them are outrageous. Some do require seeing things we haven't gotten recently (if ever), But if Buxton plays 120 games, there's little reason to think he can't have an OPS of .800 and hit 30 dingers. Miranda showed he could hit at that level; throw out that horrific start in May and he's right there last season. That's a good goal to aim for. I think it's important to look at each of these individually, not as a set, because each player's goal is independent of each other. Alex Kirilloff being healthy and hitting without pain has nothing to do with Byron Buxton's knee not barking at him.