jmlease1

15 earned runs in 5 starts since returning in 21 2/3 innings. Not great and we saw his ERA jump a run as it merged towards his FIP. he just didn't look very good last night. He's clearly got some things to work on in the offseason, and while I'm not ready to give up on him he had some quality outings and has good stuff, he looks like a guy who will likely start the season in AAA next year, and is slipping behind varland & SWR as rotation contenders. I'm wondering if his future might be in the bullpen as a guy who is asked to go 2+ innings in a relief appearance. (I'm of the opinion you need 2 guys in the bullpen next season who are expected to go 2+ innings when they come into a game and only pitch every 3 days as part of the solve for shorter starts) The Miranda HBP looked nasty. Hope he's ok and doesn't have any concussion symptoms. Obviously no intent (and you could see Giolito felt awful about it) but really hate seeing Miranda get nailed like that. Appreciate his attempts to stay in the game, but approve the caution in telling him to take a seat. dang, that looked like it hurt!

I don't think it's all that clear, because I don't know that a) twins daily is representative of the overall fanbase, or that b) the opinions in this thread are representative either. There's a definite segment that's very loud and very consistent in their opinions about the manager. (Those opinions are usually pretty consistent about the front office as well) Are they loud or are they loud and broad? (We don't really have any way of knowing, unless someone wants to spend on a poll) I don't disagree that the Twins need to stay away form dumpster diving for starters, and frankly we should be past veteran reclamation projects for the rotation at this point (based on what we know right now, the rotation should be: Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober penciled in with Varland/Winder/Sands/SWR/Dobnak pushing for an opportunity. Signing an Archer/Bundy type doesn't move the needle to me over Ober, so why spend the money that way?). But we're also at a different point for the rotation from a roster standpoint now than we were at the end of 2021, when we didn't have Mahle & Gray, Maeda was in the Paddack realm of "injured/don't count on", and Ryan & Ober were still rookies. but that's a roster construction issue that has little to do with Baldelli as a manager. I don't love Rocco, but I don't dislike him either. He seems fine, a manager who will do well when he has a talented team and good health for his players. He seems to manage the clubhouse well, from what little we get to see. I think his bullpen management needs some work, but it's better than the previous recent Twins managers (Molitor & Gardenhire) who used to drive me crazy with it.

I'm using some hyperbole to be sure. But considering how often the complaint of how "Rocco only manages by computer" and variations thereof keep popping up in threads (and not just threads like this that actually are here to discuss the manager), I don't think I'm out of line for it. Some people are definitely asking the Twins to play a different style of baseball, though. There are consistent demands for the starters to be left in games longer, period. Demands for the team to bunt more and "manufacture runs" (which clearly translates to a different approach). explicit requests for the game/lineup/decisions to be done more on "feel" and less by analytics. that's not a different style? Finally, I'm not really sure where you get the idea I said that 2021 was a rebuilding year. I said clearly that we were expected to contend from the jump in 2021 and then the team collapsed (through early bullpen implosions and then a deluge of injuries), causing major disappointment. I called 2022 a re-loading year, NOT a rebuilding one as well.

I think you're wrong about the impact of a baseball manager vs. a head football coach, if for no other reason than substitutions. Football coaches can sub players in and out of a game, and in baseball once a guy comes out, they're done. When you can do something more often, it becomes a tool of greater influence. But beyond that, do you really think baseball managers are making decisions on every pitch? I still maintain that people overrate the impact of the manager on wins & losses based on the in-game decisions we think we see. but the other part of my point is we also think that there are still wild swings in differences in quality between managers for in-game decision-making as well. We get hung up on the things that make us personally crazy and assume that a different guy (maybe someone already working for another team) will do better. And I just think that the difference between the worst managers and the best is smaller now than it's ever been, and most of them fall into a mucky middle, where they rise and fall with the health & ability of their players. The last 4 managers of the MN Twins have all been named Manager of the Year. Two were subsequently fired. Rocco could be #3, but I'm not all that sure he's appreciably worse now than he was in 2019, unless you think he's personally causing the twins' run of injuries...

are you referring to the ChoSox as a well managed team? they've been in disarray all year, arguably the most disappointing team in baseball who have kicked the ball around the field. (most errors in the AL) and if LaRussa hadn't stepped down for health reasons he might have been fired. (In any other city he would have been fired, but could have survived in Chicago because of his personal relationship with the owner)

I love how people pretend that Earl Weaver & Gene Mauch never existed. (Mauch once handed the ump a lineup card with changes in it that had a player on it that had already been subbed out and another at a different position. When challenged, his response was "oh, sorry! that's the lineup I had for if we were DOWN by this point in the game." But no, no manager ever used analytics until Rocco ruined the game with it.) There is a chunk of the fanbase (a noisy one, but it's unclear how large they are?) for whom Rocco can do no right. If he wins, it will be only through the talent of the players, possibly in spite of the manager. If he loses, he will bear the responsibility for the woes of the team (mostly) whom would all perform better if only they played a different style of baseball, usually vaguely defined as a period of baseball history hazily remembered as "better" by the fan in question. (generally some period between 1961 and 1992 for Twins fans) It's doubtful that there is anything Rocco can do to win over most of those fans. there's another chunk who is dissatisfied with Rocco because the team has lost the last two years, in seasons where there were expectations that they would be better. In 2021, we were expected to be a team that could contend and they collapsed early under poor bullpen performances followed by a litany of injuries until some players were sold off. This season was supposed to be a re-load year rather than a rebuild, but disappointment struck again when after a promising start, the team collapsed under another massive stream of injuries. (part and parcel of that disappointment is their record in 1-run games, where they sit for the year at 20-28. YMMV on whether that makes this team and the manager flawed in some internal way that makes them not "clutch" or just unlucky, but there's no question the poor results in 1-run games and their results against their division rival in Cleveland raises that disappointment and frustration level) A lot of those people would probably be won back if the team won. If the team was relatively healthy and was battling for the division all year, a lot of the complaints about the manager would vanish in the wind. I'm generally of the opinion that most managers in baseball are overrated in their actual impact on the game at this point. There are very few that are really terrible, but also very few that are superior and consistently make better in-game decisions, lineup choices, etc in ways that increase the team's ability to win more than the average manager. Rocco seems about middle of the pack to me, and the kinds of things he does that bother me are probably the same things that bother other fans about their manager and are more noticeable to us because we watch the team every day. (how impactful they actually are is another question; having Tommy Watkins as 3B coach has driven me batty this year, but did he actually lose us 6-8 games or is that more in my head because I'm remembering a particularly egregious mistake and convincing myself that it cost us the game and there were at least 5 more like it?) I think the asks for the Twins to play better "fundamental" baseball as a means of Rocco winning them back are a bit disingenuous, because I think "fundamental" gets conflated with "small ball". Would cleaning up the baserunning mistakes and errors be enough if the team didn't also start bunting more (very unlikely to happen) and stealing more bases (possible depending on the roster, but still unlikely to turn us into a running team) and things like that? I suspect not, but you can have great fundamentals without playing small ball.

Really nice start from Joe Ryan. I continue to be a fan of his, and his starts are usually pretty fun to watch. I like the way he works a game, and he seems to keep things moving along pretty well. The slider is coming along well and even without elite velocity hitters struggle to square up on it up in the zone. Setting a team rookie record for Ks in a season is pretty impressive, especially when the guys you topped are Bert Blyleven and Francisco Liriano! He's still got some things to work on (sharpening up that 3rd pitch, finishing off hitters faster, keeping his command so that slider doesn't drop into the heart of the plate, etc) but he had a very successful rookie campaign. Pagan does nothing for me, and I would move on from him in the offseason. He gets strikeouts, but he walks too many guys and gives up too many hits because when his command gets shaky (and it frequently does) he ends up lobbing one in the heart of the plate and it gets hammered. At some point you can't keep hoping the stuff will play up. We can do better. Moran, on the other hand, I do like. He's a little more wild than I would like, but he doesn't give up the piles of hits and I think he can be a big part of the bullpen solution going forward. I love love love that change up. It's so fun watching a guy with that elite change up pitch, it's such a fun pitch to see. He can really make guys flail at it.

by not taking into consideration how much the contract will cost and what the value will be like to the team through the length of it? Since urshela is likely going to get $10M in arbitration this offseason, let's use that as the starting point. Any long-term deal is going to have an AAV of $10M per season. Do we want to be paying Gio Urshela $10M+ at 34? He's got a nice OPS+ of 118 this season, which seems repeatable in 2023...but how excited are you about that contract if/when his production dips to an OPS+ of 101 in 2024? Or his defense slips? or both? Bird in the hand is fine, but just like young players don't pan out, veteran players get older and produce less. You're talking about locking up 3B for the next 4 years, so you have consider every aspect of this. And if you're the twins and you're going to start from a position of "none of our prospects are going to pan out" I think you're in a lot of trouble. And you're essentially saying "Give Gio 4 years and $40M+, because I don't think Martin, Lee, or Julien will be able to handle 3B by 2024 if we have Miranda already plugged in a 1B."

I think the teams that would offer a 3-4 year deal have fewer in-house options to play 3B, let alone hard-charging prospects. And I'm arguing to keep him for next season, not let him go. But considering what our options will look like in 2024 (Miranda, with Martin, Lee, and Julien pushing up from the minors with Arraez still an option if needed/wanted) does locking in a good, but not great player to an expensive multi-year deal make the most sense? or are you better off paying him in 2023 on a 1 year deal to ensure you have his quality, professional play and if someone like Julien hits so well at AAA that you have to find a spot for him, you can easily flip him at the deadline? And if Kirilloff is healthy, he'll almost certainly be absorbing some time at 1B, but Miranda's bat will need to be in the lineup.

I think this is a fair analysis. I will say the biggest organizational philosophy they need to examine in bullpen construction is identifying 2 pitchers that they intend to throw more than 1 inning per outing. The back end is looking a lot stronger going into next season than it was at the start of this one with Lopez, Duran, Thielbar, Jax, and (hopefully) Alcala. But I think with starters often being in the "5 and Fly" mode you need a couple of relievers that you expect to throw 2-3 innings when they come in to bridge the gap. Do they have that in Moran, Sands, winder, etc? Could Dobnak be that kind of guy? Don't know, but having TWO guys who can attack the game that way makes it viable to manage the innings load. Kepler is unlikely to ever have a 2019 season again; it's looking like a Brady Anderson-style fluke year. but Polanco was great in 2021 and has been injured in 2022, not bad. (and Kepler has actually produced enough to be a reasonable starter even with the injuries and sapped power...which almost certainly has a lot to do with the busted toe) Nick Gordon has improved as a hitter to the point where he's a quality player, especially as a super-utility guy; he's going to finish the year right around 2 bWAR. Larnach was having a fine season before injury, so saying that "he's not that good" is a snap judgment that's awfully hasty. We shouldn't assume he's going to be as great as he was in May, but we also should write him off already no better than he was in April. Buxton might never play a full season again, but even in 92 games he was worth 4 bWAR. That's a really good player. If they can get him to 120-130 games a season he's an all-star quality player every year. I mean, if you're determined to presume the worst case scenario for every Twins player, I don't know what to tell you. Find a new team if you think the twins are uniquely jinxed? While I don't think every fan has to look only on the positive side of things, casting everything in a negative light, even when the evidence suggests a different story isn't very helpful. Polanco isn't a bad player. Polanco doesn't need to go back to 2019; he was actually better in 2021. Nick Gordon is proof for why you shouldn't give up on Larnach too soon. Buxton, Kirilloff, and Lewis might never stay healthy enough to maximize their talent...but that's the great unknown.

The roster crunch is interesting, but we will have some guys moving off the 40-man (Sano, Bundy, and Archer, for example) who make it less of a problem and there's some fungible relievers as well. I think offering Urshela arbitration makes sense, even if his number comes in at $10M. He's been more than worth that this season and there's little reason to think he can't be a 2-3 bWAR player; 2021 looks more like the aberration year for him not the expected. He's not an elite defender, but he's still a solid one, and has some positional flexibility if needed (I wouldn't want him playing SS on the regular, but it's nice to have options in an emergency and I expect he could slot in at 2B or 1B if needed without too much aggro). He get hits, has enough pop in his bat to be a threat and fit in very nicely in the bottom 3rd of your order to not give pitchers a break. I probably wouldn't look to extend him, though. It's unlikely he'd be interested in a deal shorter than 3-4 years and that's a little more of a commitment I want to make, especially if the AAV is $10M+. 3B is easily his best position right now, but we also have young prospects with higher upsides coming through the system and that deal might not look great in 2 years. He's not going to do 1 plus a team option or even 2 plus a team option; he might want to stay, but he's getting right at the cash in point and if he were a FA this year he'd definitely be getting 3-4 year offers. Hard to think he won't bet on himself by taking $10M and becoming a FA. Which is probably ok for both sides, really.

(sigh. double post!)

Urshela definitely passes the eye test at 3B, but the metrics are a little less high on him defensively. He's still a quality 3B in the field though. I think it's important to note that he's been worth almost exactly the same bWAR as Josh Donaldson while costing $15M less. Urshela's been better that the plate, Donaldson better in the field. It's going to be a very interesting decision on Urshela with arbitration next season; I expect he'll cost $8-10M, but he definitely a nice player to have on your team one of those very solid guys who adds things to the table rather than take them off. As much as it matters having high-end star talent for a team, it's also very important to raise the floor. The fewer ABs given to bad players, the better off you are and having guys like Urshela who might not be at an all-star level but is still a quality starter is really nice. Would like to see him back.

He's stretched in CF, is a below average hitter, and hits lefty. He's a bad fit for the Twins for next season, who need RH hitting for the OF to back guys like Kepler (if he stays), Larnach, Kirilloff, Gordon, and Wallner. For guys under contract/control for next season with MLB experience (counting wallner's short stint), Cave is probably the 8th best OF and 6th best lefty. I'm fine with retaining him on another minor league deal as AAA depth, but under no circumstance should he be a contender for a roster spot or tendered a major-league contract. He might be better than Celestino, but Celestino hits RH and definitely has a higher ceiling (while being cheaper). Thielbar did a nice job last night and has been a quality pitcher this season. I assume the Twins will try and retain him next year, and he should be a good fit for the middle innings...as long as he doesn't turn into a pumpkin at age 36! I always love beating the White Sox. Even when the season has fallen apart, beating the White Sox always brings a smile to my face. Wallner did a nice job last night, Urshela is absolutely playing like he wants a starting job next year, and Miranda seems to have come out of his slump nicely (10 hits in the last 4 games? Love it).

I guess we should just assume that anyone who is injured will never be healthy and successful ever again?

Ober looked terrific and it was really fun to watch him pitch. It's too bad that he's missed so much time this season, because he's been very good when he's pitched. He could be a strong part of the rotation next year if they can keep him healthy. Wallner is doing fine for his first taste of MLB, but the Ks still make me nervous. He whiffs a LOT. But he's also got the power to hit a ball that for most batters would be a towering fly ball to shallow right and send it out. I have no problem with seeing him compete for spot next season.

I think this is a pretty fair statement. There's really no arguing #1, and even the FO would probably agree if you poured enough beer into them, seeing as they made the Mahle trade at midseason. I think there was reason to believe they could cobble together a bullpen, based on past performance and the way TB has managed it...but it really hurt them early on and the team paid the price. Games in April/May count as much as July/August. I don't know how many games the poor baserunning & defensive lapses cost, but there's no doubt we had too many that it stuck out like a sore thumb. (I never need to see Tommy Watkins standing by 3B ever again, no matter how nice a dude he is) The injuries are the biggest determining factor for me in this season's disappointing conclusion, but there's no doubt the Twins FO made other mistakes in roster construction this season and in coaching.

I feel like statements akin to this one ignore the 2019 & 2020 seasons for the Twins (maybe because they didn't win in the playoffs). because I recall the 2019 season being a freakin' delight. the Bomba Squad was sending them flying, the bullpen was very very good and the starters were actually pretty good with Berrios & Odorizzi leading the way. 2020 was also pretty fun in the shortened season with an ace-level performance from Maeda. It's sorta like those seasons never happened for some people? yeah, last year sucked and this year has ended in disappointment. But it hasn't been all garbage and misery!

Regardless, Royce Lewis is super easy to root for. I hope he gets to have the injury-free season we all want for him.

Which came first, the chicken or the egg? When teams win lots of close games, people talk about their "winning mentality". When players hit with runners in scoring position they're described as "clutch". There's been some pretty good studies over the years that suggests that the variance in team's W-L record in 1-run games is mostly about luck. The Twins this season are a better team than last year's edition, for a variety of reasons (and are guaranteed to finish with a better record). But last year's team was substantially better in 1-run games. Did last year's team have more of a winning mentality than this year's team? Frequently a hallmark of a good team is some good luck. Are they lucky because they're good or are they good because they're lucky? (and injuries are part of that luck) I'd argue it's always a bit of both.

Are we having the same discussion from the end of last season? Outside of injuries, I'm not sure we are. Except for the people who want baseball to go back to some version of what they think they remember from days of yore...those people are always having the same conversation in pretty much every thread, and likely will be having the same conversation for years to come, because baseball ain't gonna go back to what they think it was any time soon (if ever). We're not asking the same questions about the rotation for next season; end of last season it was "who the hell is going to start for this team", and this year the real question is "can this group be healthy enough?" We were asking "do we sign Buxton or trade him" and now we're asking "how do we manage it for the 30-70 games he might/will miss?" And as frustrating as this season has been, it's not the same as last year. Last season, we had a team that fell apart early and threw itself in the dumpster fire. They were never in the hunt, and looked like the last place team they were. This season is a different kind of disappointment; an injury-fueled collapse after a pretty good start that had them on pace to win the division, even with the flaws that were obvious for all to see. But they addressed those at the deadline...and it didn't work out or matter, because injuries and some poor performance (and bad luck) wiped them out. being 20-25 in 1-run games is partly about ability, but it's partly about luck. Facing lefty pitching at a time when your RH hitters are all hurt (hi, Texas!) is bad luck. Going 1-11 against your division rival in close games is really bad luck. We're 6-13 vs Cleveland this season, but the runs scored is dead even. (Cleveland is 26-16 in 1-run games this year. yes, they're playing well, but that's also luck) I mean, the Twins were not a good team in 2021, but they were 25-19 in 1-run games.

Next season is definitely a crossroads year. They're starting out at a much better baseline for the rotation and the bullpen then they did last year before free agency began, which is good. No reason to dumpster-dive for reclamation projects for the rotation, and if anyone does get signed that way they should know they're not getting in on scholarship and might be moved into a long relief role. Personally, I would say the standard on the rotation is "don't sign anyone not expected to be better than Joe Ryan. This is not a knock on joe, but a notation that their improvement need to be top-end, not backside) the lineup is where we're really looking at uncertainty, despite having a number of quality players. We don't know who plays SS. The entire OF has amazingly high variance. Larnach & Kirilloff are really talented, but have never shown it over a season because of injury. Wallner has only a cup of coffee. Buxton is awesome, but seems unlikely to reach 100 games for the 5th straight season. Celestino has shown improvement, but is still young. Garlick can't stay healthy. Kepler seems to have hit his ceiling and the 2019 explosion looks like a juiced ball fluke year. They need decisions at 3B, SS, and 1B and reinforcements at catcher. If the lineup implodes again next season, then we're looking at really big changes, because it means that guys like Kirilloff/Larnach/Wallner aren't able to step in and be the future in the corners. That they can't find a defensive home for Miranda or Arraez. And if that happens, I think you'll see bigger changes in the team, from the front office on down. YMMV on how beneficial that will be. They need to get the offseason right, they need a little injury luck, and they need a couple of young players to really be hitters. A rotation with Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, & Ober could be quite good. A bullpen with Lopez, Duran, Jax, Alcala, Thielbar & Moran could be quite good. But they'll need a lineup of Polanco, Buxton, Arraez, Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach, and jeffers to also be good and to play.

team seems gassed to me, and it's just tough when you have 9 position players on the IL. the OF has been the Legion of Injuries. I get that injuries can happen to any team, and I know there are some (many?) around here that have no interest in injuries as an excuse, but...9 position players on the IL is a LOT! Here's the playoff contenders in the AL right now: Cleveland: 0 Chicago: 3 NY: 3 Toronto: 2 TB: 4 Baltimore: 0 Houston: 0 Seattle: 2 Wallner has done pretty well in his first shot at MLB, Nick Gordon has exceeded all expectations and we're lucky to have him. Urshela has been a stalwart. Arraez & Correa have been key. Miranda has dropped off but had a pretty nice rookie season. but there's been a lot of "injured or bad" everywhere else, and it's really caught up to this team where we needed the lineup to be a strength and right now it's struggling.

All fine choices. I was surprised to see Wallner described as a player who barely walked, since he's never had a season where his OBP was less than .350 and it's not like he was cranking out high BAs. The contact issue will be the question for him until he proves it in MLB, but if he makes enough of it...the power plays. He's had a terrific season. Just be prepared for the Ks, because they're going to keep coming in bunches. SWR is a player I've always liked and he's had a nice year. It's great to have him finish at AAA. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see his K numbers tick back up a little either. He's got the stuff to be a rotation staple, IMHO.

How many times has this actually happened to the Twins? Paddack (whom they knew it was a concern and decided it was worth the risk. YMMV on that one). I know Cody listed Maeda, but we had a fantastic season from him before he went down...so no immediate arm issues there. Dyson wasn't a "big" trade by any stretch of the imagination (dealt for 2 lottery ticket pitchers, one of whom is no longer in the SF system and Jaylin Davis, who got 3 cups of coffee in MLB with SF before being waived, picked up by Boston and is now back not hitting for the BoSox in AAA) Odorizzi had 2 healthy years before getting injured. Phil Hughes & Michael Pineda were signed as FA, and both had at least one healthy season anyways. It's been bad luck this year, in a season where a little good injury luck would have made a HUGE difference, but I dunno if there's really a pattern for the franchise.