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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    That's a lot of speculation. As far as we know, he hasn't actually failed a physical, just had something show up that made teams concerned further out on these really long deals. There's been nothing that says he can't pass a physical this year, just that they think he's at risk for something 6+ years down the line.
  2. jmlease1
    These are really good numbers for the Twins and the team options are excellent. Gives them a lot of flexibility to move on if needed, but also retain if the production is there. If Correa has an OPS+ of 140 or better and a bWAR of 4 or better, the Twins wouldn't want to let him go just because he only hit 540 plate appearances or something at age 34. This structure works out very well for the Twins and Correa; he gets more money up front, the Twins get a lot of mitigation on the back end, but also are paying the bigger numbers during the likely most productive years. Guess the Twins actually will spend what it costs to secure a premier free agent.
  3. jmlease1
    That's pretty great for the Twins. I don't worry about no-trade clauses like this; they can always get waived. But the structure makes so much sense for the Twins. They're not locked into a bunch of years after Correa turns 40 (there are so few players that have hit well at that age, let alone be effective defensively at any position), they've got outs if he can't stay on the field, they don't have to worry about him opting out if he has an MVP-type year in year 2, and the bulk of the money is located in his prime years. And I really really like Correa as a player. There aren't that many players at SS who can hit like Correa does. Heck, there aren't that many 3Bs that hit like he does. He's a player you can build around. I bashed the FO pretty hard for appearing to whiff on Correa and seeming to settle for Vazquez and Gallo. But in the end, they got it done on Correa (pending physical, lol) and this offseason has gone from poor to great in a hurry. I'm still not sold on Gallo (and the plethora of LH corner OFs) but if they can make another move to bolster things from the right side and solidify the bullpen, then I feel awfully good about this offseason.
  4. jmlease1
    Replacing Archer & Bundy with Mahle & Maeda is a definite upgrade, injuries or no. Having Varland & Woods Richardson at the next options up with them already having some MLB experience and success is also an improvement. The rotation is deeper and better than at the start of last season. There's a good argument to make that the bullpen is better positioned as well; Lopez is more talented than some of the pitchers we were running out last season, Duran is proven now, and Pagan is pushed way down the depth charts. I'm not ready to say we have the bullpen locked yet, but it's in at least as good a position as opening day last year, arguably better. Correa is just such an upgrade at SS over Farmer. (who is a nice enough player, but much better suited to a utility role)
  5. jmlease1
    If that's correct, it's an excellent stipulation for the team that really does protect them pretty nicely. And considering how much lower the dollars are in those last 4 years...it's a very good structure for the Twins. And to be very honest, front-loading money is very good for Correa too, unless he gets ripped off by his money managers.
  6. jmlease1
    If the vesting option on the last 4 years doesn't kick in unless CC plays essentially a full season in year 6 of this deal then the Twins have done an excellent job of mitigating the risk. Teams frequently prefer to defer money to later in a deal, and from a pure finance standpoint that makes sense (a dollar now is generally "worth" more than a dollar in 5 years), but in terms of roster and payroll management, front-loading can really help you out. I like this structure quite a bit.
  7. jmlease1
    It's a pretty great deal for the Twins. The shorter term works for them and they have the payroll space now to front-load this contract for his prime years. 4 years on the back end if it vests at an AAV of less than $20M should look pretty reasonable assuming Correa continues to hit and stay reasonably healthy. There's still real risk with this deal, but they've mitigated it pretty reasonably considering the caliber of the player they are getting. But there's always going to be risk with any long-term deal, and sometimes you have to roll the dice. Correa is worth it, especially right now. So nice not to have to worry about SS for a while. Correa checks every box; literally the only issue is whether or not he can stay healthy for the duration of the deal. You know what? That issue exists for every other SS who signed this offseason. I wish no ill on Dansby Swanson, but if he tears his ACL in year 2 of his deal...yikes. Correa is a leader, a complete player who adds plus offense at the plate and elite defense in the field. I'm thrilled to have him back and glad the Twins stuck it out, accepted the risk, and made it happen.
  8. jmlease1
    Well, I will admit I didn't think this was going to happen. Always felt like the Mets would outspend us in the end. But I'm thrilled with this deal (assuming it finalizes, which apparently is not something we should presume any longer!). Correa is a great player, he'll be excellent at SS in the short term and will be able to slide down to 3B if needed later in the contract. Having his RH bat in the middle of the lineup and his stellar defense is just fantastic for this team and take what was a dismal offseason straight to an excellent one. I do think the Twins need to still look at a deal to clean up some of the many LH corner OF bats (Kepler still seems like the obvious choice) and balance the roster, and frankly I'd love for them to deal Pagan as well. Get in one more RH bat for the lineup and swap Pagan's roster spot for a RH reliever and...I feel pretty good about this roster. wow. Correa back!
  9. jmlease1
    Nah, best trade is still Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan. Cruz only had half a season left on his contract and was already 40 years old. Immediately after being dealt, he fell off the table. Joe Ryan had already provided more value and looks like a rotation mainstay. That was a fantastic trade.
  10. jmlease1
    I said "borderline criminal", and I think that's accurate. He wasn't charged, but he could have been, and who knows where things go after that? And the anti-trans & anti-Semitic social media posts are expressions of bigotry, they're not "rumors" just because you missed them. And he's certainly not sorry. The idea that a) this team somehow needs "fire" to win, and b) Bauer is even remotely capable of bringing that energy in a positive way is pretty ridiculous. They wanted him out in Cleveland, they're eating his salary in LA to get rid of him and he'll bring a firestorm media circus with him if he lands a gig anywhere in MLB that will be a distraction at best and more likely a garbage fire.
  11. jmlease1
    you're attempting to parse grammar rules in a way that misinterprets the intent of the speaker. It doesn't matter if that's the "correct" way to read the use of "could" in this statement, Francona was almost certainly trying to convey the idea that Bauer had been a problem in the clubhouse at times. It wasn't just "well, this guy might detonate the clubhouse in the future".
  12. jmlease1
    not really the same thing. Bauer is a bad teammate and at best a "difficult" personality with borderline criminal sexual practices, an embrace of bigotry, and shows no remorse for his attitude or behavior. Kirby was a beloved teammate whose problems mostly arose after he was forced into early retirement through fluke injury and was almost certainly having mental health issues that needed treatment. It doesn't excuse his actions, but it puts them in a different context than Bauer. No interest in Bauer here. Everything about him screams "bad guy".
  13. jmlease1
    i think it's less about that and more about trying to maximize his contract? At least initially, SFG & NYM offered more. More dollars, more years. And you can't take stuff like this personally in free agency. If we'd gone 12/$350M out the gate, he probably would have signed with us. If we'd gone 12/$325M when the SFG deal collapsed, we probably win that one.
  14. jmlease1
    Sale does nothing for me. His prime has come and gone, he's barely pitched since 2019, and he's owed a ton of money. His last mostly healthy year he was decent but hardly great, and it's hard to think that he's going to recover his form at age 34. he looks like a guy who is breaking down and falling apart. (I also recall him being a...difficult personality in his last years with the ChiSox?) For every Verlander there's 5 guys that never really get it back after TJ. It's been what, 5 years ago since sale was truly a frontline starter? I'm not sure he meets the "better than Sonny Gray" test to elevate the rotation. Also, i think the "frontline starters don't want to come to MN" idea is a little overblown; Wheeler is the one we know told us to eff off, but he told anyone who wasn't east coast the same thing. Bumgarner (maybe) but again...he wanted AZ, much like Wheeler wanted Philly (and I'd say we dodged a bullet there). I think in the other cases of us missing out on a frontline starter it was because the team didn't want to give the money or the years (or both).
  15. jmlease1
    About the only reason to bring in Wacha is if the Twins don't think Mahle and/or Maeda will be ready to pitch on opening day. The rotation looks solid already with Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, and Ober with Varland, Winder, Woods Richardson and Balazovic waiting in AAA, and Paddack possibly back by midseason. Wacha doesn't move the needle, doesn't raise the ceiling on the starting pitching. Yes, injuries are an issue but at some point you have to let guys like Ober, Varland, Woods Richardson etc pitch. I'm a no on Wacha. Feels like spending money to spend money. Bundy's only real skill last season was health. Great, he took the ball every 5th day, but he wasn't GOOD. Would Wacha really do much more?
  16. jmlease1
    As I've stated before, I'd take the risk on Correa. 10/$285? 9/$275? fine. Would do those deals. But I don't think it's going to happen, and I don't think the twins are any kind of front-runner. There's still a chance that the Twins will end up with Correa and the Mets will end up either backing out or throwing up enough conditions and clauses that Correa walks away, but the odds are still against the Twins. Correa is a great player, and I think he's going to be a great player for the next 3-4 years at an absolute minimum. I think he'll likely age better than most, as some of his best skills at SS (positioning, arm strength, consistent glove) should age better than ones that are speed or reaction-based. With his arm, he'll be able to slide down to 3B and provide superior defense even if his range declines to where he needs to move off SS. If he keeps hitting close to where he's been at, then he's an all-star at either spot. We know he's a good guy in the clubhouse and that players gravitate to him, which is good when you expect to have young players consistently coming up. That's all good. There's risk in any deal, and it gets higher the longer it is. But Correa is the kind of player that's a) worth the risk, and b) isn't often available for the Twins. Go for it. Hells bells, no one in Twins leadership is likely to be around at the end of this contract anyways.
  17. jmlease1
    The whole saga is pretty amusing. I'd love to know what exactly SF & NY are seeing in the medicals that is making them try to get a discount/restructure after initially agreeing to terms and makes them think that they have have enough leverage to get it done against the most powerful agent in baseball. Or is some of this tied to the rumors early on that many teams in MLB didn't rate Correa as highly and both the Giants & Mets have second-guessed themselves? For me, I would still take the risk were I running the Twins. Correa is an elite player and it's worth taking a risk on an elite guy. This isn't hoping someone comes back after a major injury, this isn't hoping a great player still has something left in the tank. This is a great player in his prime. Maybe the leg injury (that doesn't seem to have caused him to miss a game in MLB yet?) will force him off SS sooner than we'd like. Still not sure why this is an issue with the Mets, who were going to play him at 3B anyways. Maybe they think he won't hit any longer? I take the risk if I'm the Twins. Correa raises the ceiling on this team right now in a big way. If SF & NY have doctors who are saying he's going to be hurt and not playing much in the next 2-3 years I'd be stunned. If the risk is in years 8-12...I take it. We experienced several years of a diminished Joe Mauer, but his contract wasn't what was stopping us from winning; what stopped us from winning was young players not developing and making bad signings to fill in. the 2016 Twins stunk because Nolasco, Milone, Gibson, Duffey, and Berrios stunk as starters, not because Mauer's contract was an albatross. They stunk because they started a bunch of hitters who couldn't hit (yet) in Buxton, Kepler, and Escobar and relied on veterans like Plouffe & Suzuki who couldn't hit either. I still don't think it's going to happen, but I'd sign him if we could. Take the risk.
  18. jmlease1
    I've completely excluded Pagan from this discussion because I'm sorry...he's Pagan. He's a fringe roster player at this point that probably shouldn't be here (if for no other reason that the benefits from him figuring things out are vastly outweighed by the PTSD he gives the fans while still figuring it out). He's got a ton to prove, but it shouldn't be here. I hope to hell he's part of whatever trades the team is working on behind the scenes.
  19. jmlease1
    Unfortunately, Buxton has to be on this list until he has a healthy season. He's proven he has the talent and skill to be a star, but hasn't proven he can stay healthy enough. I'm not sure Ryan belongs on here: he had a very good rookie season, limiting the HRs, showing out a good WHIP, stayed pretty healthy through a full season, and showed he could compete. He's pretty locked in. It's a little depressing how many guys on the Twins need to prove something based on their inability to stay healthy recently. Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Ober, Alcala...
  20. jmlease1
    I think the ceiling may have dropped some on Martin because of the ongoing uncertainty of whether or not he will hit for power. But his contact skills, ability to draw walks (and get hit by pitches) will make him an effective offensive player. He seems unlikely to stick at SS, but would do well at 2B or any OF position. He's probably about average in CF and a plus guy in either corner because of his range. Considering where the Twins are with stacks of LH OFs and Celestino's struggles at the plate, I think Martin might make a good option to cover for the inevitable Buxton injury and give options to add a RH bat in either corner. They'll still need to clean some things up with their OF (a few too many guys, maybe) but Martin could be a high average, high on-base guy with good speed and plus baserunning who could serve as an igniter at the top of the order or adding a weapon at the bottom of it, while giving good defense in the OF. Nick Gordon might have developed a better power stroke (for now), but Martin is the better defender already I think, and as a RH bat might be a better fit as a super-utility guy. Still like Martin, and thought he did well by himself in the AFL.
  21. jmlease1
    I'd argue kirilloff, Larnach, & Alcala have already broken through but have been dinged by significant injury in MLB. Miranda seems to have broken through as well. It's an interesting list, shows how much people can shift around on these lists.
  22. jmlease1
    It is sort of hilarious how we basically have Zombie Correa Free Agency: it never truly ends. Would I take Correa, even with the potential risks that have started cropping up with the medicals from both the Giants & the Mets? yes, because with the Twins as a FA destination...you have to take some risks. Correa answers a lot of questions for the twins in the short term, even with the medicals. Hilariously, it would instantly take the Twins from a bad off-season to a pretty great one in one swing. If you told everyone in early December the Twins were going to sign Correa, Vasquez, and Gallo the response would have been: "wow!" followed by "wait, how does Gallo fit on this roster?" and we'd be spending all our time trying to figure out if Kepler's being traded and for what... I don't think it's going to happen. There's some noise, but in the end I think there's barely any chance that Correa ends up back here, so I'm viewing the whole thing with a sort of eye-rolling bemusement.
  23. jmlease1
    I think that's the biggest problem. he might just be cooked as a hitter. Might he do better over the course of the season in a reduced role, where he'd stay fresher and healthier, never being expected to play 130-140 games? Possibly, but it's definitely a gamble. Is he an upgrade over Garlick? Maybe? He's going to be less helpless against righties...probably? He's going likely to be less effective against LHP. McCutcheon might actually be healthier?
  24. jmlease1
    I'm a big fan of SWR. His development was very much screwed up at the time the Twins got him (Olympics, pandemic, fast promotion, etc). The talent has always been there, he really needed health, game experience, and a consistent development program. He mostly had that last season (the time missed to covid was really the only hiccup) and as a result you saw the pitcher who was such a highly touted prospect. He was very good at AA, and didn't backslide at all when he was moved up on merit to AAA. He pitched a career high in innings even with missing some time, he got his BB/9 back to a reasonable area, and while the K/9 slid back a little it was still very respectable. He was hard to hit, and didn't look scared in his first MLB start. And he's just turned 22.
  25. jmlease1
    Good depth move for the bullpen at low cost. He's a decent reliever when healthy, especially if you don't over-expose him.
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