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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    And if Smeltzer had handed out another walk and a subsequent dinger to George Springer (or maybe it's Bo Bichette), the same people ripping him for pulling Smeltzer "early" would be crushing him for leaving him out there to get beat up. Smeltzer has thrown over 100 pitches for the Twins and gone into the 6th in every start before this one, but can you honestly say he was looking great out there against the Blue Jays? especially against the heart of their order? His command wasn't great, he'd given up some loud outs and with an off day we had a lot of bullpen options. It's not a "red flag" at 70 pitches, it's trying to find the balance between getting a guy too early vs too late. When you get the guy early there's no way to prove you were "right", but there's a reasonable case to be made that the Twins made a smart call. Would I have let Jax go a 2nd inning? Probably. But if Duran doesn't take a fluke liner off his leg/knee then it's unlikely Duffey ever comes in and this lines up nicely with Duran being the guy who gets the extra inning this time and we're never having this conversation about the bullpen.
  2. jmlease1
    I'm baffled by all of the angst directed towards our manager after a win. A win! It sure feels like a subset of Twins fans has decided that Rocco = Bad, period, and comes here looking for something to be mad about. Pulling Smeltzer an inning "early"? seemed reasonable considering he didn't have great command, with Springer coming up (who had been killing him). I might have gone with Jax a 2nd inning myself, but with the day off pending, I get the mindset. It was disappointing to see Duffey implode with the big lead, but rolling him out there to mop up the game in the 9th made perfect sense. The strategies for the bullpen were fine. Some of the moves worked great. Some of them didn't go as well. But nitpicking every. single. move! the manager/pitching coach makes in every game all season is exhausting. Rocco's fine. He does a good job in managing his clubhouse and roster (his primary strength) and is decent enough strategically. Managerial performance is overrated, usually by people needing someone to blame for stuff. Every season you have 5-7 managers who are obviously superior and really impact their team's season, 5-7 who stink and hurt their team's chances, and 15-20 who fall in the middle who either seem interchangeable or whose true value is unquantifiable. Put Rocco in the middle group. It's fine. He's not in the basement crew, and the people who think he is are not going to be satisfied with the next guy either. A fine win against a really good club. Toronto has some terrific players. Nice to see a few guys for us step up with big bombs; Sanchez just missed one and then got it back in the next AB by hitting it to a slightly smaller part of the park. Larnach hit a missile. Arraez is so hard to keep off base, I love it. He's a nightmare for RHPs.
  3. jmlease1
    It looks like Kirilloff has his swing back and is producing the power he needs to be an effective hitter again. I would think they could find a spot for him on the MLB squad, seeing as how the offense has been so erratic. Arraez playing 1B isn't really a problem: one of them can shift into the DH role, and frankly Kirilloff is a more natural 1B anyways. Wallner continues to roll. If he has a June like his May he's going to be pushing for a promotion. I wonder if there was anything behind his awful start? (nagging injury he played through? significant adjustment made by him & the coaching staff?) He's mashing it right now, for sure.
  4. jmlease1
    Not a great time to be missing guys for vaccine "hesitancy". Pagan seemed to realize it, at least, but I'm tired of the rationales being based on the quackery that runs rampant in the "wellness" industry and on the internet from people with no real expertise. (This is also one of the ways that guys keep getting busted for PEDs, taking supplements that aren't vetted or pushed by some guru) Garlick keeps doing what he's supposed to: make lefties cry. What a great platoon player! (his splits this year are hilarious in how extreme they are) Jose Miranda looks like he might be settling in a bit at the plate: he's been swinging the bat well lately and it's great to see his skill taking over. He's been doing a nice job over the last couple of weeks and looks like he can be a contributor. If Urshela needs a week off to rest that ankle, we're going to need him. Moran is a pitcher I like, but his control is going to keep him more high leverage situations: he'll K the side for you with that wicked changeup, and then walk 2 guys because he can't locate his fastball. But he'll be able to work around walks with his ability to hunt Ks. Just prepare yourself for the ride, because it might be bumpy.
  5. jmlease1
    I agree: having Alcala throwing 96mph and touching 99 is a great sign. I hope he feels great today and doesn't have any lingering problems. Can't wait to see him back up with the Twins. Rodriguez: wow. really impressive start for a guy in his first year of full-season pro ball. Be great if he and Noah Miller push each other all the way through the minors as elite prospects! The only concern I have about him right now is I'd like to see him make more contact? the SLG% is really impressive for the FSL and his ability to take walks at 19 is pretty remarkable, but I always get a little twitchy when I see the lower BA because sometimes that drops off more as guys advance and the ability to make enough hard contact is the sort of thing that limited Rooker and gives everyone pause about Wallner. (Rodriguez has tools those two guys did not, of course). It's the one area he hasn't really nailed yet. Which is saying something. he could be really, really good. It'll be interesting to see how aggressive the team is in pushing him up. Glad to see Enlow have another outing. I just wish good health for him this season and maybe by the end of the year be back to full strength. I still believe in his talent, so hopefully he can stay on the comeback trail. Sawyer Gipson-Long gets more interesting all the time. Glad to see another starter in the pipeline! He's certainly in line to get a look in AA this year.
  6. jmlease1
    very exciting to see Noah Miller off to a really good start in his first year of full-season pro-ball. You never know with the high school picks how long it's going to take them to adjust (and some of them never do) and while Miller wasn't bad in rookie ball, he didn't light the world on fire either. He's getting hits, he's getting walks, he's showing decent pop for the FSL (and power is a tool that often develops later), and the speed is very good. he looks like someone who can stick at SS. Wallner had such a dreadful start to the year that you had to wonder if something was wrong. Apparently he just needed time, swings, etc. I'm always going to have some concerns about his ability to make enough contact, but months like this make you think that he can do it. The power is tremendous, he's not a bad OF and the arm certainly plays. His comps are somewhere in the Brent Rooker-Adam Dunn zone, and it's hard to know where he'll land. If he can finish the season with a BA over .270 I'd feel more confident? he had a terrific May and if he hadn't gotten off to such a horrific start I think we'd all be feeling a lot higher on him.
  7. jmlease1
    Great news that Alcala is ready to start making some rehab appearances. Hopefully he's healthy and can stay that way (always a bigger bummer when a guy comes back after a long layoff to rest and heal and then quickly needs a serious surgery). Our MLB bullpen could use him back in the mix, so hopefully rest and rehab does the trick for him. Steer just continues to roll (he really is doing a Jose Miranda imitation!) and I love to see it. The next jump is the hardest one of all, but it's hard to bet against him right now. Love seeing guys take advantage of their opportunities. I will admit to being wrong about him: I thought he was a guy who was getting by beating up on younger opposition and hadn't been impressed with his work at AA last season (too many Ks, not enough BBs, not enough HRs to offset the low BA). He's putting it all together this year and the BB/K split from Wichita is looking like the anomaly now. not sure we'll see him much at Target Field absent more injuries/COVID this season, but you have to think he'll be competing for a job in MLB next year...or be a real trade asset. Balazovic's struggles are concerning. He was the guy I had the most hope for coming in and being a significant call-up for the Twins rotation this season, and right now he's a total mess. Hopefully it's all tied in to the early-season injury and he just needs time to work through it and get in a good pattern, but the reality is that sometimes the guys you're the most excited about don't pan out, and why you need 8-10 serious pitching prospects in your pipeline to sift out 2-3 MLB rotation guys. Fortunately, the Twins came into the season in that 8-10 range of guys at AA & AAA?
  8. jmlease1
    It's starting to look like Kirilloff is either getting healthier with that wrist, or figuring out how to swing through whatever ongoing issues he might be having (or both). If that's the case, then let's get him back up to MN to help the struggling offense. I've always been a Kirilloff fan, so I'm happy he's getting back on track. Wallner is on a nice run again. I'm still a little nervous that he just isn't going to make enough contact to let his power play (or get him on base enough), but it's the only question he has to answer. The power is still massive, he's drawing walks, his arm plays well in the corners (and he's not a terrible OF). But it's been very encouraging how he's done after that rotten start.
  9. jmlease1
    I've been a big Joe Ryan guy ever since we acquired him. I like the fact that he throws a little differently than other starters, I like how he seems completely unruffled by anything on the mound, and I love how his off-speed pitches are better than advertised. Ober is doing very well too, and if he's able to stay healthy and keep all of him limbs moving the right way in something resembling harmony than he's another terrific asset who is a bit different than a lot of other starters. I'm a little more concerned about his ability to stay healthy and go deeper into games (would rather not have him max out as a 5 and fly guy), but he's still looking like a starter to be counted on. Both of these guys have something different in their delivery that makes them tougher to hit against. I love having that in a pitcher. All the video in the world can't prepare you for when a pitch is there faster than your brain says it should be, or makes you think it's rising up in the zone, etc. And unless a lot of other pitchers suddenly can replicate that (unlikely) then hitters just aren't going to see them frequently enough to adjust easily.
  10. jmlease1
    11th in OPS, but only 15th in runs scored. They're just above league average in offense for a team where the offense was seen as a strength, so it's a little concerning. Yes, there have been some injuries...but everyone has injuries. The pitching has been significantly better than expected, which is great: the 6th lowest ERA is awesome. But their FIP isn't nearly as good, which could signal that they've been catching some breaks. And if they revert back to the mean a little on the pitching side, they're going to be in trouble if the offense doesn't pick up. (admittedly, they also might be missing some breaks on the offensive side in the way the OPS and actual runs scored is matching up)
  11. jmlease1
    I'm not putting this loss on the bullpen. No, they weren't great and couldn't hold it down late, but at the end of the day the offense only scored 2 runs. That's not good enough even against Detroit. (And if we'd gotten one more measly run in regulation, we would have had those last two get tacked on to the bullpen) We won the series, so I'm not going to panic, but this was not a strong series performance by the offense and they need to step it up in order to keep things rolling. Bases loaded and no one out with Correa, Kepler, and Sanchez coming up and we get nothing? Oof.
  12. jmlease1
    It's great to see Cavaco finally having some success. He's going to need to sustain it for another month or so before I start getting convinced; he had a brutal start, so his overall numbers still stink and I'm going to turn a skeptical eye on any hitter who Ks 11 times for each walk. He turns 21 in about a week, so he's no longer young for low-A, and really needs to get it going this season. Miller is off to a very nice start in his first full season, and it's good to see. I'm less concerned about his relative lack of power; we've seen that being a skill that often develops later, and as noted above the FSL can suppress it to some extent. And when you look at Spencer Steer's development, it suggests that the Twins have the ability to develop that in a hitter. I'm very pleased with his understanding of the strike zone: 30 walks already is really good to see. He's doing a nice job showing off his speed too. Still a long way to go, but it's a fine beginning. Rodriguez is something else. He might have to adjust his approach as he advances in level and faces more developed pitchers, but having more walks than Ks at 19 years old is pretty special. He's going to be fascinating to watch. Rosario (don't want to ignore the other 19 year old!) is really struggling so far this season. Hopefully he'll be able to adjust, but he may be finding full-season baseball a little harder and will likely need more time.
  13. jmlease1
    You know the system is deep when Wallner & Sabato can no longer crack the top 20! I'm rooting for Cavaco to figure it out, but it's not looking great for him. He's repeating low-A at 20 (almost 21) and not really hitting any better. He's striking out more than ever...and he struck out a lot last year. He's going to need a lot more games like this before I'm going to be convinced he's figuring something out and that he's ready/earned promotion.
  14. jmlease1
    Gray was terrific, and exactly the guy we were hoping for when we traded for him. The trick for him is really just keeping him healthy. If he can avoid those nagging injuries that make him miss 1-3 starts here and there over the course of the season then we're going to be really happy with him leading the rotation. Lovely to see him get through 7 and give the bullpen a break. Urshela's on a 4 game hitting streak and is showing good contact skills, bringing that BA up. Would like to see a little more power from him, but he's doing a great job controlling the strike zone right now, so if he keeps getting on base like this (and not racking up Ks) to go along with his fine defense, that'll be just ducky. I'd love for the offense to put some more runs up on the board, but when the HRs aren't flying it's always going to be lower outputs. There's just a greater chance for double plays to kill a rally, it takes more clustered hits & walks to get it done...it's why hitting for power is one of the most important skills in generating runs (along with avoiding outs). But I feel good with the power capacity for this team overall, so I think the scoring will be there. Nice job by Duffey to have an easy and clean 8th. He seems to have settled in pretty well in May: 10 appearances, 7 "clean sheets" (no baserunners), only 2 walks in the whole month, 10 Ks in 10 1/3 innings...feels pretty good.
  15. jmlease1
    Duran, Winder, Balazovic, Sands, & Strotman were all on my "legit prospect" list; it's just that Sands got called up for a bit, Balazovic has been injured, Strotman is moving to the bullpen, and Duran & Winder made the club out of spring training. So it thinned out the younger arms in AAA a bit I think. I still think Sands and Balazovic are exciting arms...they're just off to slower starts than some of the other hot prospect arms in AA (SWR, Varland, Canterino, and Enlow)
  16. jmlease1
    Congrats to Spencer Steer, who has taken his opportunities and really run with them. He deserves the promotion, and I hope he can maintain this quality approach at the plate. His evolution as a power hitter is really impressive and it's great to see another bat push his way up the rankings and the minor league ladder. He's another option if injuries strike deep, and his stock will have risen if a trade is deemed advisable as well. I have to wonder if the demotion lit a bit of a fire under Kirilloff. This is really the first set-back he's had in his career that's tied more to performance, rather than purely injury. (yes, I know the wrist injury is a factor, but with no structural damage at this point some of this is just about him working his way through it and being the hitter he can be) If he can get this kind of pop back in his bat and show those 100+ mph exit velocities again, he'll be an important cog for the twins this year and beyond.
  17. jmlease1
    Twins stole this one, and that's something good teams do against bad teams. And right now the Tigers are not a good team. But they do have a pretty good chunk of talent there, even with the injuries. Would be happier if Archer could go deeper into games; he did ok in holding the lead, but we needed one more inning out of him, preferably a clean one, and he gave up too many baserunners. Arraez just continues to roll. What a nightmare he is to get out right now.
  18. jmlease1
    It's a fair argument against the FO on free agent signings: the track record hasn't been great until this year, highly dependent on the elite Nelson Cruz signing. (which they followed up by trading him at a perfect time and for an excellent yield) The pitching signings before this season haven't been great. Of course, if you factor in this year's work, it's going to look better: Correa, Smith, Archer are all looking like good moves (and Bundy isn't looking terrible) On trades the record is looking a bit better, and again this year's work is looking pretty good (Garver has struggled and isn't catching, Sanchez has been good, Rortvedt isn't playing, Urshela has been solid, and Donaldson is still an ass; Sonny Gray looks like a fine acquisition if we can keep him healthy) and the Nelson Cuz trade for Joe Ryan is looking incredible. YMMV on the Berrios deal: Martin still isn't showing much pop, but SWR looks awfully good, so that one could look pretty decent too. Rogers for Paddack could be a miss, but if Paddack comes back strong, I liked the way he was pitching. That said, having Rogers on this team with where they are now, would be great. I'm not going to anoint the FO with great laurels this early, but they had a vision for the season and a strategy for it and so far it's working like they said it was going to. I do think they deserve some credit for sticking to their guns and having it show out so far.
  19. jmlease1
    It's probably just SSS noise, but it's not unreasonable to wonder if his relative comfort levels plays into it. Love seeing good outings from Canterino; the talent is there, the stuff is there, he just need starts and health.
  20. jmlease1
    It's hard to be too unhappy with anything with the Twins to this point; how many people really expected more? The entire pitching staff has been better than advertised/predicted and while the offense has looked a little rough, in the context of the league they've been quite good. I think the most exciting/encouraging thing for this season to date is how the Twins have been able to respond to injuries. Guys have stepped up when other players have gone down, which is good...but it's also who has been slotted into those roles. Most of the guys who have stepped in are players from the system who have potential to be contributors to this franchise beyond this season. You're seeing young guys with upside come up and get a shot on schedule, as opposed to yanking up someone from AA we know isn't ready, or very many journeyman AAAA veterans in their 30's, or guys playing out of position. (no Jake Cave!) I'm bummed about Alcala's injury: I've been very high on him, and thought he was really figuring it out late last year, so for him to be having arm trouble is a bit of a blow. I'd be more excited about how sustainable our bullpen is if he were healthy and part of it, but Maeda potentially coming back in a month could be a great addition.
  21. jmlease1
    I'm a big fan of Celestino; if he's hitting respectably then he's an almost perfect 4th OF for this team. He plays a good CF, which is good relief for Buxton when injured/resting and lets us keep Kepler in RF. The RH bat serves well against the corner guys like Kepler, Larnach, and Kirilloff if we're dealing with a tough lefty. He can play any OF spot and give good defense. I think his power potential is respectable for a CF/4th OF, even if he's more of a doubles hitter than a true HR threat (he's still not some slap hitter out there). He does a nice job getting on base and draws enough walks. His BABIP suggests he's been pretty fortunate so far, but at the same time he's doing so well that even when he normalizes a bit he can be a solid contributor and keep growing as a player.
  22. jmlease1
    That's a hell of a comeback to sweep the Royals. When Cano was imploding, I was convinced it just wasn't happening (the double plays were driving me batty) and that the team was maybe a bit flat on a getaway day. But good teams dig this stuff out, and the Twins are looking more and more like a good team. Ober looked good. Glad to have him back and throwing well.
  23. jmlease1
    I wouldn't expect it for another month, if it happens. He's only 19, and there are some advantages to having him in FL with the footprint the Twins have in Ft. Myers beyond the A-ball team. But it's an excellent start to full-season baseball for him.
  24. jmlease1
    Noah Miller seems to be doing well at Ft. Myers. Good to see him grabbing plenty of walks this early in his career. Would love to know how his defense is looking? Still a little concerned about Wallner's ability to make consistent contact, but otherwise he seems to be doing just fine at AA. His patience at the plate certainly looks good.
  25. jmlease1
    Very nice win. Would love to see the team sweep the Royals, who don't have the same depth the Twins do to handle the injuries they're dealing with. No sympathy, no mercy: take advantage and sweep 'em. I'm a huge Ryan fan, so it was good to see him get back on track a little. Would have liked for him to have been able to finish the 6th because with that pitch count he could have stepped back out for the 7th, but in a close game and his control a little wobbly it was the right decision to lift him. But he's still having an excellent season and he's exactly what the Twins were hoping he'd be. He's fun to watch: smooth, works fast, and sure seems to frustrate hitters up there. Really nice to see Sanchez doing well. Amazing what can happen for a player when they get out of a bad situation and find a fresh start. I'll take that OPS+ of 125 from him. Arraez has been pretty remarkable: a .324 BA in this hitting environment is absurd. And let's have a few props for Celestino, who has played very very well since coming back up. Love seeing him have success against MLB pitching after such a rough first taste in 2021. The defense is good, he's hitting...he's the perfect 4th OF for this team, IMHO. Good in CF when Buxton gets a day off, can handle either of the corners nicely, and his RH bat complements guys like Kepler, Larnach (when he's back), Kirilloff (when he's back) nicely.
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