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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Good day overall for the top prospects. Varland is a fascinating prospect, and I'm really rooting for him. It's not just the local boy angle, it's also the D-II aspect of it. If Varland succeeds, teams are going to be more likely to take a second look at a kid coming out of a decent D-II program and give them a shot. My alma mater just had a kid pitch a perfect game (there's been less than 30 in all of D-II's history) and it's a exciting to think that someone like him could get a chance at a pro career if varland continues to grow. It would be great if the circle change can be the other off-speed pitch for him: he's got a fastball that plays, the slider is good as long as guys can't just sit fastball/slider, and the change could be the last piece that lets him really go. I've always felt like AA is where you figure out whether you have enough pitches to be a starter, because the hitters are getting good enough that you can't just overwhelm them with a ridiculous fastball all the time or one awesome breaking ball. Wallner is continuing on a solid run too, hopefully he and Miranda just needed live ABs and a little time to get warmed up.
  2. jmlease1
    Fangraphs had Strotman at #17 and Ryan at #18 in their 2021 TB prospect rankings KLaw had Ryan at #13, and Strotman outside the top 20 (based on mention he was probably 25-30?) in his 2021 TB prospect rankings. I think part of it was TB's system was so deep they had a 40-man crunch to deal with as well, so they probably felt comfortable with an "overpay" that was from outside their top 10, because they were at risk of losing someone anyways in the next Rule V draft. I suspect they looked at Ryan as a guy who they questioned how he would play up at the MLB level if he was so fastball dependent and Strotman as destined for the bullpen who was outside their top 20. I think TB missed on Ryan, and they're probably digging in on it. Because Ryan's secondary offerings were better than advertised on arrival, and his slider development this season has been tremendous. Of course, it's still April, and guys have had hot starts before and fallen off. But points to the twins scouting for identifying Ryan as a gettable pitcher in the deep Rays system, and the team for doing good work with him to continue his refinement as a player.
  3. jmlease1
    Joe Ryan is a delight to watch. The knock on him coming in was that he didn't have secondary offerings and that he was just a fastball guy whose funky delivery and work up in the zone had gotten him through the minors. But even last year, we saw that his changeup and curveball were better than advertised and could offset that fastball (which played up beyond its velocity). Now he's added that slider into the mix as a significant offering that he can throw for strikes and get swings and misses with and he's looking better than ever. His control is still very good, he's piling up Ks, and if he can keep the ball in the park he's going to have a great year. He was delightful to watch last night. Morneau was almost gleeful talking about him last night, how confident he looked, how consistent he was throwing...compared him to Brad Radke. (I would have no complaints of getting another machine like Radke) You know things are rolling when they're going to break and Morneau calls it out: "Boy, this is fun to watch!" Kepler's breakout is great to see as well, and I hope it continues. He's gotten a fair amount of (deserved) heat around here: he's bounced a lot of balls into the shift over the last year or two and had a lot of weak contact. Last night he was locked in and made loud contact and sent the ball flying. Great to see. Showed his good eye at the plate while punishing his pitch, and that is a sustainable approach if he keeps putting the barrel on the ball. Lovely game, with good defense, great pitching, and some good offense. And it's not like Detroit is a bad team any longer: the top half of their lineup has been playing very well (their bottom half has not), they've added pitching, and they shouldn't be looked at as a pushover. Last night they looked like trash against Joe Ryan. No complaints.
  4. jmlease1
    I don't know that watkins really caused this by throwing up the stop sign, since because of the stop-start moves Larnach was doing he really had no chance of scoring once he finally got himself to 3rd? (I've rolled my eyes at some of his decision-making as 3B coach this season, but I think he's off the hook a little here) Larnach clearly didn't get much of a read on sano's liner; it looked like his brain kept telling him "it's a hit! it's an out. it's a hit! it's an out." until he finally saw that the ball hit the ground. not a great job by him. not a great job of baserunning by sano either, who failed to see what had happened in front of him (but I can understand his thinking on it: to him it looks like a double if he hustles and the runners ahead of him should be gone). Urshela was caught betwixt & between; not sure there's anything he can do that's right there? Either he's out at 3B or he stays at 2B and Sano is out, if Detroit doesn't kick it away. Wild. Twins D has had a few howlers this year (oof, Arraez) but overall the D has been good. You get some wins just by not kicking a game away.
  5. jmlease1
    Vallimont is a heck of an arm, but no command of his pitches. he may be caught in the trap where the only way he can consistently get things over is to back off on his stuff...which makes him eminently hittable. I expect him to get dropped off the 40-man at some point fairly soon as the team needs the spots for relievers who can legitimately join the MLB roster and contribute. Glad to see Wallner rip another dinger. Hope he's finding his form and this was just a slow start (because boy it looked ugly for him for a while). But it can take guys a bit to adjust to AA. And Royce is still hitting at AAA, which is great to see at all times.
  6. jmlease1
    Whoops, double post. Glad to see kepler do well against a lefty.
  7. jmlease1
    Doesn't matter. Some people's minds are made up that he's a terrible manager and therefore in every game he either made a decision (or failed to make a decision, or followed a computer printout, or or or) that cost the team the game, or would have cost the team the game except for someone else bailing him out. I find it tiresome, but I'm also someone who thinks that most baseball managers generally have a limited impact on the game. (it's not like it's 50 years ago and Earl Weaver is one of the only people who understands that getting on base is really important no matter how you get there, or that playing for the 3-run hr works better than sacrificing outs to get a run) Baldelli did fine last night.
  8. jmlease1
    Paddack looked good, I thought. Would have been nice if he could have finished off the 6th, but dang it was cold out there again. But if Paddack is getting comfortable throwing his curveball consistently, then he's going to be a good starter again, IMHO. I like his 3 pitch mix, and the fastball that was getting beat on a little last year should play up better when he's got two good off-speed pitches to contrast it. (It certainly wouldn't hurt if the team is able to add a tick or two on his velocity on that fastball too, but if he's consistently sitting 94-95 on it, then I think he's in good shape) Goofy ending to the game, but I'll take it on a night where it looked like every professional sports team in MN was bound and determined to cough up a late lead and send us home losers.
  9. jmlease1
    Really interested to see how Paddack does tonight. I thought it was a bit unfortunate that he had to make his first twins start in dreadful weather against a team he's already faced a bunch of times. I thought he threw better in his next start and was pretty unlucky in how a couple of bleeders slipped through and getting burned on bunt singles. But I liked his fastball velocity last outing and the curve was effective, so it'll be fun to see what he can do tonight. I like his ability and I think he's going to be an interesting guy to watch. I'm a big booster of both Ryan and Ober, so I feel like we can match up well with the Motor City Kitties on starting pitching. Whose bats will wake up first? getting Correa rolling would be a big help. Baddoo may have had a solid season last year, but he's off to a dreadful start this year.
  10. jmlease1
    Most teams can't afford a 25 year old pitcher who's never pitched above AA and can't throw strikes consistently on their 40-man. I like Vallimont, but he's exactly the kind of guy who gets churned at the back of a 40-man. His WHIP in 2021 was putrid and so far this year it's only gotten worse. He's probably going to flame out as a starter but his command is so bad that you can't trust him as a reliever either. I'm happy to keep working with him in the minors, but I'm not going to cry if someone takes a flier on him
  11. jmlease1
    SWR is a pitcher I really like. I just want him to get consistent starts in AA until May/June and then we can assess and think about moving him up. Even if he continues to dominate at AA, I fell like he should stick there in May. Let him get a routine. Let him build confidence as he continues to refine his pitches and approach. Let him have a normal year. he's really talented and just needs the innings and not to get messed with, IMHO. He got traded at 18 and immediately bucked up to high A, then lost a season of development to the pandemic where he didn't pitch competitive baseball at all, then got bumped to AA, then sent to the Olympics (where he didn't pitch), then traded again...he's still only 21. That's a perfectly fine age to be kicking ass in AA, so I have no problem with him repeating a level...for the first time in his career. Austin Martin was the big piece in the Berrios deal, but I think Toronto sold low on SWR, and I'm looking forward to his development this year. I don't think we see him MLB this year (again, I think the twins realized that him getting bounced around too much has hurt his development and aren't going to rush him), but I think he's contending for a rotation spot in 2023.
  12. jmlease1
    not wrong. Vallimont seems the most likely candidate because 40-man slots are a little tighter right now and teams are less likely to grab up a AA pitcher who might be the next Steve Dalkowski.
  13. jmlease1
    The crunch the Twins have is with the 40-man. They have guys that are potentially good options, but they either risk losing someone off their current 40-man, or will again when someone comes off the injured list. Minaya pitched well enough to get another shot and would be a perfectly good 6-7th inning option. I'm a big fan of Cano & Moran, but they're a bit wild, and that can escalate quickly in the majors. Cotton seems like an option? Was surprised he got dropped off the 40-man in the first place. I don't want to see them try and slide SWR into the bullpen; he's had his developmental track screwed with too much over the last couple of year and needs starts and innings. He's got significant potential as a starter, and they need to leave him alone for a while not flip him into the bullpen. Canterino seems like a more likely option in that his innings are being monitored so tightly and his health has been an issue.
  14. jmlease1
    He's not the only one. International draft can be a lottery. Of the top 10 by signing bonus, only 4 have made the majors at all, and only one is on a star path (Vlad Guerrero Jr.). Three of them appear to be out of baseball. The next best two from that top 30 signing bonuses list are Juan Soto & Fernando Tatis Jr...and Tatis isn't with his original team. (Pretty sure the White Sox would like a do-over on THAT trade) Celestino still looks like he can have a nice career as a 4th OF or maybe even a starting CF, so he's done ok.
  15. jmlease1
    Let's listen to the king of bad football takes about baseball. wait... I'm going to dance for joy if Buxton can play 130+ games.
  16. jmlease1
    I think Hendriks got a little karma yesterday, after screaming about striking out Nick Gordon the previous inning.
  17. jmlease1
    One of the challenging things right now is continuing the development of players like Celestino & Winder while trying to maximize wins for the MLB club. They're being used in minor roles right now that have some value but are clearly not being treated as priorities, and it's unfortunate to have them be used more as warm bodies and emergency use players rather than real contributors when both player need work to continue their development. They should probably both be in AAA (and I think there's a real chance both will be soon) but it's resulting in some wasted development time for both players. Buxton is the straw that stirs the drink. My goodness, he's amazing. That extension is looking brilliant right now, even with the week off for the knee ding. Have to believe some of these bats are going to get going soon, especially Correa. He's too good of a player not to, and if they can get some additional offensive contributions form some power hitters, the offense should start looking better more consistently. I'm really bummed about Alcala. I really liked him as a late-inning option, and elbow injuries like this are always hugely worrying. And I hate that he might rest and rehab for 2 months and it might not fix anything. I hope that he's not heading for surgery, but I fear that he is. What a bummer.
  18. jmlease1
    Really good to see Twins hitters working pitchers for walks. Normally, if you grind out 9 of them in a game, you're going to score a big pile of runs, lol. Also glad to see Winder get in a game; I don't care for a pitcher at his development stage just sitting in the bullpen waiting for a long relief shot in a blowout. He needs to pitch, and did ok today. Buxton is ridiculous. Oh my goodness, he is a heck of a baseball player. He absolutely obliterated that walk-off. Gordon is doing a nice job as a utility guy. He's been profiled as this for a while, and he can add a lot of value to a team's bench with his positional flexibility, on-base skills, and respectable speed. He's never going to have much pop in his bat and I don't know if he'll ever be a plus defender at any position but he's solid enough in a lot of places that you can play him there comfortably for a game, which also adds options for you to use him as a pinch hitter (or anyone else, really). Dang, I like sweeping the ChiSox. Suck it, LaRussa. (and hey, Liam? Who's shouting now?)
  19. jmlease1
    Buxton is the straw that stirs the drink. Very nice win. When your opponent is drowning, don't throw them a rope, give them an anchor. Really good to put them hammer down on the ChiSox. I hope this means Jeffers is working his way out of the early season doledrums? Can't say I was expecting things to go this well for Bundy out the gate (he was the pitching acquisition I was the least enthused about), but I have no complaints. Maybe the team has him on a good path, maybe he's just healthy and feeling good, but regardless the results are what we want. Let's get the bats in gear and see what we have. Would love to see a sweep tomorrow!
  20. jmlease1
    I think Sanchez has been catching Ober in part because of how he works up in the zone, making it easier for Sanchez? Sanchez's problem has been blocking pitches low and low and away and he's probably going to work better with a pitcher who likes to work up in the zone. Just a guess, but Sanchez has looked better defensively with the Twins than advertised to be sure. Some of it may be in how they've deployed him and who with? Jeffers made some really nice defensive plays last night and was working hard to try and frame some pitches up. Worked to our advantage.
  21. jmlease1
    Cano might have been in line for a cameo last fall, but he's been super wild before. I'm sure they're trying to figure out whether he can consistently command his pitches to be an MLB relief option. While he was reasonably effective in Saint Paul last year, he also walked 5.1/9, which doesn't fly. It's not like he wasn't giving up hits, either. So far he's looked much more in control, but it's fair to wait to see if it's for real or just a good two weeks. Moran has a similar problem with wildness, which is almost certainly why Coloumbe got tapped as an additional lefty at the start. I expect both will get their looks this year. Terrific start to the season for Spencer Steer. Really great to see him cutting the Ks back; when they jumped up so much with him upon promotion last year I wondered if that was a sign that the level of competition might get to him, but so far it looks like he's making the adjustments to the level. He probably gets promoted in a month at this rate. Martin continues to be an on-base machine, but it is a bit worrying that he's showing so little power. I'm guessing he'll be given some time to work on that. His speed makes it a little less concerning, and if you can get on base all the bloody time in some ways it doesn't matter that much if you're not bringing much pop, because setting the table for everyone else matters too. I do think his path to the majors is going to likely involve the OF, but I'm fine with them continuing to give him time in the infield in the minors. Maybe he's a super-utility player who gets plenty of starts but doesn't have a regular home unless/until someone gets injured. It'll be interesting to see when we see him at Target Field.
  22. jmlease1
    This ump had a pretty big zone all night. I wouldn't say he had an ideal game behind the plate, but he was pretty consistent both ways. Series like this you don't care how you get the win, just that you get it. That infield single from Correa might be what gets him on track. Jeffers got a big hit in a tight situation, which was great to see, and he caught a nice game. Interesting to see Jax pumping so many sliders: if he's getting a good feel for that pitch it should help him as an option out there and might help his fastball play up a little. Ober pitched pretty well, I thought. Got punished for a mistake, but didn't let it rattle him. Thought his command was pretty good out there. Kopech is a really good pitcher. Wish he wasn't playing for the damn ChiSox, because he looks like a rotation stud.
  23. jmlease1
    I think it's always going to be a mixed bag, but we have to invest in it. They're essentially buying opportunities. Some are going to flame out, but regardless of how we feel about them today, guys like kepler and sano were worth the international investment. Rodriguez could be another one, or he might flame out, but more opportunity is good
  24. jmlease1
    twins commitment to international signings is a really important part of their minor league talent development and pipeline. They've made some good investments there. Rodriguez should be an interesting one to follow. He's got a lot of talent, and how we're able to refine that as an organization will be interesting. I'm looking forward to watching his progress in A-ball. If he's able to stick in CF with that arm and keep developing his hit tool, he's going be rise up the lists pretty fast. Looks like a fun player.
  25. jmlease1
    We're seeing why a lot of us didn't like the Dallas Keuchel deal when it was signed in the first place. He was good in the short season, bad last year, and worse this one. And if Keuchel manages to get to 160 innings this season, they're on the hook for $20M on him for next year too! (seems unlikely with how bad he's been, but who knows with LaRussa) I was surprised that the ChiSox didn't make a QO to Rodon; it seemed to make sense to run him back because of his upside, but without long-term commitment because of his injury history. I guess they were convinced that he wasn't going to stay healthy. It would be lovely to get well against the White Sox. I love beating LaRussa, who I think is a lying scumbag.
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