jmlease1

He just needs health. He was starting to figure it out at the plate last year before the injury (it would have been interesting to see how pitchers would have adjusted to him and if he could have made a counter, but instead he got hurt). I think he's got a lot of bat talent and could be a significant offensive contributor, hitting for a solid average with a good on-base and significant power, as a well-rounded hitter. He's not an all or nothing guy, but can really scald the ball. I think he can be a middle of the order hitter. defensively, he'll never be more than average, I suspect, so he'll need to hit his way in there. Maybe the new trainer can keep in on the field this year?

Ridiculous. Just because Mauer wasn't a loud guy who spent a lot of time talking to the media, doesn't mean he wasn't a leader. Remember, he was the guy who started giving out game balls to the team, something that clearly meant a lot on a young team trying to figure things out. Some guys lead by example, and Joe 100% did that. Not clutch? His stats at bRef would disagree with you there too. He was always good with runners in scoring position, high leverage situations, etc. He did not have playoff success. But he also had very limited opportunities, which is a strike more against his teams than him personally. Mauer was also the victim of one of the more horrendous blown calls in recent playoff memory... I don't think he makes it on the first ballot, just because that's a high bar, but I wouldn't be shocked either. The national media never had the resentment towards Joe that some of the locals did (Dan Barreiro, are your ears burning?) and the numbers are there. Wish Joe had won a gold glove at 1B (he deserved one), because that might have cinched the deal. Personally, I think he's a no-brainer: 6 all-stars, an MVP, 5 silver sluggers, 3 gold gloves, 3 batting titles...what more do you need?

I don't know that I would rule out going for Correa. But I'd be awfully skeptical if Boras refused to let the Twins investigate the issue while demanding they raise their offer to Mets levels. "No, no...trust me!" That doesn't work when you're talking this kind of money. It is a little wild that it's playing out like this. Correa was taking a significant haircut to bail on the Giants (or did the Giants bail on him?) to go to the Mets. If the Mets are now grouching about his medicals...what does that really mean?

The chaos and mayhem around Correa's signing/not signing is sort of funny, but I'm not sure it does anything for the Twins. The way Cohen is spending on the Mets and not caring about his luxury tax impacts suggests to me that even if there is "something" in his physical, it's unlikely to matter. Cohen right now doesn't care about insurance and will almost certainly overrule his staff if needed. Wonder if this makes SF feel better? (Will Cohen start caring about all of the money running out the door if a) he doesn't win a title, or b) if he does? That might get interesting. Sometimes these guys flip the other way once they get that achievement...) Until we get more detail on what the issue is, I have no ability to judge the possible severity and impact and whether the Twins should try and jump back in. I do think if Boros is saying "no, you can't investigate this before increasing your offer if you want to get back in" then the Twins have to step carefully, because that's a red alert.

It's one thing to spend big on position players and starting pitching, but history suggests teams are better off developing their relief options internally. 3 years and $33M for a reliever might be ok if they were in their prime, but for a 32 year-old reliever coming off his worst season as a pro? Odds are pretty good that he's going to have one good season, one meh season, and one bad one.

3 years & $33M? Hard pass. He might be a useful pitcher still, but he's unlikely to be consistently elite going forward. Good for him to get that kind of money coming off a pretty bad season, but that's not smart use of funds for the team.

I don't think so. I think they felt Urshela was not an option at SS, even as a backup, and they were looking to move Miranda in as the regular 3B. Trading Urshela was more about rebalancing the roster to open a spot for a player who could legit play SS regardless of what happened with Correa. I don't think they saw Urshela as being worth $9M as a backup, either, and he would have been a backup at the start of the season, since the only spots he could get PT are at 3B (where he's behind Miranda now), 2B (everyone is behind Polanco), 1B (behind Arraez & Kirilloff), or DH (where he probably doesn't hit enough, and the Twins prefer to rotate guys through there anyways) I don't necessarily agree with the move, but there's a logic behind it from a roster construction standpoint, especially if they're feeling confident in Brooks Lee being ready sooner rather than later, Austin Martin pushing for time, and Royce Lewis coming back healthy and ready by midseason, along with Edouard Julien. (of course, this is the opposite of their decision-making (so far) on the OF, with the Gallo acquisition) I think it's fair to question the unwillingness of the FO to not increase their offer for Correa when the Mets offer ended up being so much closer to where the Twins had been. Could the Twins have gone 12/$315? Probably, even if stretching the contract 2 extra years doesn't help them in the same way it does a team like the Mets. Could they have bucked it up to 10/$300M? Also probably. Should they have tried to stretch? I think so, but...would that have gotten it done...no one knows. Would that have been a mistake? William Goldman's best advice on the film industry applies here. "Remember, nobody knows anything." The appropriate emphasis is on "knows". We can speculate and conjecture, but nobody knows anything. Byron Buxton doesn't really know to what degree Correa wanted to come back here, so his comment is opinion. I mean, sure if the Twins offered MORE years and more dollars than anyone, he probably comes back. But even that isn't certain, and we don't KNOW it, and neither does Byron. Maybe we needed to beat it by $10M. Nobody knows if the Giants skittishness over a medical issue is reasonable or not. Nobody knows if Correa will be healthy for the next 5 years, the next 10 or the next 2.

I think this is the key passage. Boras went back to the Twins and told them they could get back in the mix for Correa if they increased the offer, the Twins said "hang on, something just blew up this other offer and we need to check it out before we go up more" and Boras said, "nope, no more questions". Right now, we don't really know what the actual medical issue was that caused the Giants to get cold feet. Ankle? Back? Something no one has talked about before? Lots of speculation, and anonymous sources who have agendas. Easy to judge when you're just guessing about the issue. I'm having trouble blaming the Twins for saying "hey we need a minute to figure this out, because this is unprecedented" when the agent noted for waiting until he gets the offer he wants is pushing them to a) move their money up, and b) do it now now now. It all feels very hinky. But at the same time, there's a real chance this is all overblown. And the Twins could have done the same move that the Giants did and walk away if there's something in the medicals that was going to prevent a contract from being insured or whatever else this might have been about. So I'm thinking they made a mistake by not upping the 10/$285M offer and taking your shot. Swooping back in at the last minute would have completely changed the tenor of this off-season and positioned the Twins much better for 2023. I guess eating $30M at the back end of the deal was just too unpalatable for the front office. I suppose it's the honorable thing to do, not sticking someone else with a lead weight of dead money? Because even if they're very successful over the next several years, the odds of Falvey & Levine running the show in MN in 2034 is pretty damn slim. No one lasts 20 years any longer.

I almost don't want Gallo coming up with men on base, because the Ks might start really grating. If no one is on, the BBs are still good, especially with a contact hitter behind him and his astute baserunning (if not real speed). His OPS with RISP is actually lower than with the bases empty, which suggests that pitchers aren't really dancing away from him. He's a complicated player. The power is undeniable. So are the mountains of Ks.

This really really makes me want to know what the medical issue was that effed up the deal with SF. Either it's something pretty major, in which case either this Mets deal falls apart/they're taking a massive risk, or it's not something all that significant, in which case the Giants absolutely screwed themselves. Will the leaks flow? It's tough for me to say what the Twins should have done here without knowing that medical issue. If the Giants made a mountain out of a molehill, then it's disappointing for the Twins to not have jumped in again with the money dropping so significantly. If it's a real thing...then do you want Correa if he's got a major medical issue? Wild.

welp, I was wrong. Thought for sure this would get ironed out and he'd be a Giant. Did not see the Mets move coming.

I don't think it will change anything, IMHO. If they were willing to go 13 years and break the bank, they're not backing out now. Maybe SF was trying to get some insurance done on the contract and the medical threw a wrench into it. They'll probably iron it out or move along.

100% agree on Myers. I thought he was a good fit and upgrade from garlick at the start of the offseason.

Gallo is a complicated signing. It's not the worst move in the world, but it is a really frustrating one for Twins fans because the fit is a tough one and it's unlikely to be one that was made without other moves in mind that haven't occurred yet. So right now we're stuck with Gallo in isolations and it's easy to make ourselves a little bit crazy over it. For people that hate a "three true outcomes" approach, were thrilled to see Sano headed out of town...there's no stat on concept that's going to make those people happy about this move, not even Gallo's history as a quality defender. And I get it: it's not a terribly aesthetically pleasing style of baseball in many ways. I'm still struggling to come around on the "depth" argument though I do think it's an important one to consider. the folks reminding us that at one point the twins were starting their 6th-10th choices for OF last season, including games where none of them were a top 5 pick for the OF ain't wrong. That said, after last season I think I would be much more comfortable with Nick Gordon as an OF than I was at the start of 2022 or Matt Wallner coming up as an injury replacement. Pre-Gallo, the OF depth chart looked something like: Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Gordon, Kirilloff, Garlick, Celestino, Wallner...and even with injury risks from Buxton, Kirilloff, and maybe Larnach (I would argue that presuming Larnach as a significant injury risk is a little overblown right now; the presumptions on Buxton and Kirilloff are more than fair) that our depth doesn't look too bad here. Things didn't start falling off the ledge for the Twins until they needed to get past the 8th pick last year, either, and that was a really injury ravaged group. can you put together a roster planning for needing your 9th OF consistently or are you already screwed? (and this year that 9th OF pre-Gallo is probably Austin Martin, so...maybe not so bad?) Does this position the Twins better to deal one of their many LH OF guys? I think that's the best argument for signing Gallo: take a potential quality bat off the market, deal from position of depth, using guys you know have value (and presumably) interest from other teams. It's just hard for me to be happy about it until the music finally stops. seems like they could have done better to address the OF needs earlier and gotten a RH bat and not placed themselves in a position where they really NEED to make a deal, instead of just having the option to make a deal if something good comes together.

I think the FO has been fairly clear in their disinclination to spend significant money on relievers...which TBH I tend to agree with. Outside of the best of the best, relievers get pretty fungible and you're frequently better off developing them out of failed starters and internally in your system than spending big money to get an "impact bullpen". So I'm not expecting that to be where money goes. not excited about Drury. I think this piece understates what a career year this was for him: last season was really the first time he was both healthy and good for a full season. he doesn't have particularly significant splits in his career to show that he's a guy who mashes lefties. Do we really want to make Minneapolis even more Cincinnati? Eovaldi is interesting: he's clearly got talent if healthy, but there's major medical risk. Pollock is interesting, but I get the reluctance of people to get a veteran looking to bounce back after a bad year. But as a platoon bat, he might be a good RH fit who could still play in the corners? Anyone thinking that he can still play CF will be sorely disappointed, though. they'd definitely need to shuffle some things around if they add both him and Gallo.

I'm hoping you meant this as a joke. because ain't no way this is true.

I'm sorry, but RBIs don't really tell you very much about the player's talent as a hitter. They say a lot more about their opportunities as a hitter. Farmer was at the plate a lot more than say, Trevor Larnach. To the tune of 403 more plate appearances. Farmer was at the plate with 347 base runners on last season. Larnach was at 100. It doesn't mean that Farmer is a better hitter. Farmer was a decent player last year, a veteran and team leader who was healthy the whole year and wasn't traded during the season on what was a very bad team. Let's not pretend that he was voted team MVP because he was an all-star or something. And I'm happy to have Farmer on the team. I'd rather it was as a utility guy, because he's not a particularly good hitter, and he won't be a particularly good hitter in 2023.

Clearly he can or the twins wouldn't be slotting him in there. Is he a superior defender at the position? By no means. Can he improve to where he is average or better? Doesn't seem unreasonable. (Trevor Plouffe was dreadful when he started playing 3B by his own admission, Koskie looked rough often in his early seasons before turning into a Gold Glove caliber player, so it's not like we don't have history with this) I wanted the twins to keep Urshela; he was healthy and pretty consistent. But he wasn't a great defender either: he made highlight plays, but also more than his share of lowlight plays, and his range was going to the point that he simply isn't a reasonable option at SS (and was hampering his ability at 3B and ability to fill in at 2B, frankly). Miranda played well enough that is more than reasonable to slot him in at 3B and roll. I would like to see a few more moves to settle things more for the OF. I didn't like the Gallo deal, I still don't like it. I wanted a corner OF who hit from the other side. I guess if you're not having a lot of faith in Wallner being ready (or good enough in the OF; he's not a great route runner and fielder, which limits the utility of his plus arm, and the range ain't nothing to write home about either), and not counting on Larnach & Kirilloff being healthy, and maybe expecting to trade kepler... Blegh. Still don't like it. It is a fair statement that the twins need health in the OF. Not sure Gallo really fixes that.

all reasonable minor-league signings. We don't have a lot of 1B depth, so White makes some sense as an injury hedge in case he has one more burst left in him. De Leon & Luna are lottery tickets, but why not? Carmago looks like the classic "sign a guy to be the AAA catcher in case you need the depth". Every team should make that move and you will lose your mind if you get caught out on the one year where the team didn't add that guy. Doesn't look like anyone is being promised anything significant, so it's fine.

eh. Phillies were league average in Ks this season and made the World Series. Top 8 teams this season in OPS+ were all playoff teams. 6 of top 8 in OPS+ in 2021 made the playoffs. 2019: 6 of the top 8 in OPS+ made the playoffs. 2018: top 6 in OPS+ all made the playoffs. (I skipped 2020 because the smaller sample size and expanded playoffs made it an outlier and a poor comp to the other seasons, but 6 of the top 8 in OPS+ made the playoffs then too) So I think OPS+ still says plenty about team success. If Gallo gets back to his Texas form, he'll be a useful player and could add more to the team than Kepler, whose spot he appears to be taking. There's good reasons to think he'll have a better chance than JD Martinez to recover his form (I think it's very possible they'll be close to each other in production at the plate, with Martinez having a small rebound and Gallo having a significant one) and he does add value in the field and Martinez does not. (Martinez might also be a detriment in the clubhouse?) But Martinez would potentially fill a need for right-handed slugging that the Twins are still short on. I'm not sure I want Martinez, but I would have understood it. I still don't understand the Gallo signing very well outside of a "$@*%&, we need to sign someone!!!" move.

I really don't know if Gallo can rebuild his shattered confidence and actually be a productive player at the plate again. I don't know if struggles at the plate this season will follow him into the field again (as they apparently did in NY). I'm not all that optimistic, but he has hit before and it is possible. Probably the best thing I can find about Gallo coming here is that he's ruined pitchers in the AL Central for his career. His OPS is great against the entire division. Of course, the unbalanced schedule is going away, so that's a bit less appealing...

Gallo might be better defensively than the young guys...or he might not. He wasn't particularly good defensively last season, and there's a reasonable chance we've already seen the best of Gallo as a defender. (he was bad with the Yankees in every possible way, including defensively. Dodgers he was better defensively) You're correct that Kepler is a different variant of Gallo when it comes to production, except that Kepler's floor seems to be higher (Kepler didn't have a good year and still produced 2.1 bWAR and Gallo fell apart so badly he clocked in at 0.5 bWAR. That's not a small difference). But despite Kepler's still solid overall production, we've all been talking about trading Kepler...so why would we pay more money for a higher-risk version? Wallner is a poor defender, but we really don't know what he is in MLB for sure. But if he's Joey Gallo at the plate, then he'd be doing it for a lot less money. Kirilloff and Larnach have been good when healthy, but if you wanted to hedge your bets against their health, you'd still want to do it with a RH bat, not another lefty. I'd much rather have Wil Myers at 2/$20M or even 3/$28M than Gallo at 1/$11M. Good grief, we're giving Gallo more money than he's ever made in a single season coming off a rotten year when he's a redundant player with significant risk (and injury history of his own). Gallo's a 2-time all-star, but in both years he had a hot start and did nothing in the second half (once because of injury, once because he was awful after the trade to the Yankees) so it's difficult to get too excited about that aspect as one to hang your hat on.

what does Rocco have to do with this moronic signing? Does anyone actually think that Rocco was agitating for the front office to sign Joey freakin' Gallo?!?

I hope Royce recovers quickly and completely from the ACL and Brooks hits so much that it's a real question. I do think Lee's bat is special and he's got that same kind of makeup that Lewis has where the stage is never too big for them. I hope Royce Lewis still has that special speed that makes his bat even more exciting. Force me to bet, and I go with Royce, just because I think the Twins won't rush Lee just for funsies, and I'm thinking that the infield will be relatively healthy the first half of the season. But I wouldn't be shocked at all if Lee goes full Miranda on us, destroys minor league pitching, and becomes the guy who gets called up when one of our middle infielders goes down for extended time.

I hate everything about this deal. I hate the fit. I hate the player. I hate the money. I hate the reek of desperation on it. I hate the fact that it pushes younger players down on the depth chart for no discernible reason. I hate the fact that it literally addresses none of the team's actual problems. I hate having to bet on a bounce back year from a player that's shown zero ability to do well with a new environment. (disaster when dealt to the Yankees. Disaster when dealt to the Dodgers) I hate spending millions on a player who hasn't been good in a year and a half. I hate adding in such an all or nothing bat. I don't know what they are doing here, and right now I don't care if there's a "plan", because this is just an idiotic move. It doesn't matter if they deal Kepler. It doesn't matter if they package together 2-3 of their many LH corner OF. We made a bad signing because we missed on all the big names and star power we thought we might be able to land. I don't care that's it's only 1 year, because a bad 1 year deal is still a bad deal. There are few singular moves that are truly fireable offenses in baseball...but this is close. This is validating every criticism of the front office this offseason. Right now, this is indefensible. Embarrassing.