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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Eh, I dunno. I think the real issue with Canterino is he went to Rice and they abused the @&$*%# out of his arm. But you don't really know for sure where it's at until he pitches, and they lost all of 2020 as an option. I suspect he would have ended up on the surgery list in 2021 if they hadn't lost that minor-league season. It's hard to get too upset about the medical team trying to avoid surgical options, since that's usually better for the person even if it might mean that it hurts the team later. Martin is a puzzle, but I'm certainly not ready to give up on him. His speed and on-base skills certainly play. I wouldn't call this a healthy season for him since he missed almost 6 weeks in the middle of it. I have to wonder how much of his development got screwed up by having no 2020 minor league season and then getting dropped into AA immediately. He's literally never played a game of A-ball in his pro career, and outside of a 2-game rehab stint in rookie ball (which I assume was so they could see him play while close to the medical facilities in Ft. Myers), he hasn't ever played below AA. Balazovic has had the nagging injuries this season, but for him to be so wildly ineffective when supposedly healthy has been really confusing. he's been staggeringly hittable. The last handful of starts have been better (K's are back up and he's limited the damage), but he's still giving up too many hits while handing out free passes. He's given up 2 walks in 7 of the last 8 starts (15 walks in only 32 2/3 innings is not going to get it done, especially when you give up 35 hits in the same span). He needs a reset.
  2. jmlease1
    Cavaco is still only 21 and lost a crucial development season due to the pandemic, but it's hard to look at him as being a successful pick. Still too early to give up on him; sometimes it takes a few years to unlock the tools, but his performance has not been great. lot of Ks, few walks, not a lot of hits. He is on a 9-game hitting streak right now, with 3 2B & 3 HRs during this stretch (but also only 1 BB), and seems to be finishing the season strong (stronger?). Incremental improvement, I guess? Balazovic has been very disappointing. Everything looked great about him in A-ball, and then he misses a season due to pandemic, has a good but not great season in AA where literally every metric started going the wrong way. This year he's been brutal: incredibly hittable, wild, and homer-happy. Maybe it's mostly injury-related, and he's definitely looked a little better lately, but it's damning with faint praise: I'm not exactly cheering about Balazovic going from getting his brains beat in over 3 innings to being kinda ok over 4 or 5. he needs a big reset. (normally I'd say he'd be a contender to go to the AFL and try and build on the late-season stuff, but maybe he really needs to just go home for the winter, work the program, rest, and forget all about 2022) Julien has had a wonderful year. It was fair to be skeptical of his OBP from last year (he was a more advanced hitter, it's A-ball where guys are wilder, etc) but he's continued to be an on-base machine in AA and done a fine job punishing the ball when he does decide to swing at it. I'm pretty excited about his future...as a hitter, at least. Are they using the automated strike zone in AA?
  3. jmlease1
    It's sort of shorthand the whole $8M per fWAR, I guess? I don't love it because the first unit of fWAR isn't really worth as much as the 4th or 5th. there are so many fewer players that are truly 5 fWAR guys that is probably isn't very linear. but in terms of roughing our basic value it's not too bad.
  4. jmlease1
    He's averaging over a K/inning this season, which is down a little for him but I'm not sure it's something to worry about it at this point. He hasn't been at elite levels this year, but his K/9 would be higher than any Twins starter this season outside of Louie Varland (who has one game under his belt, but has a higher K/9 in the minors as well). I'm very happy with SWR's season: he's pitching late into the year, he's been mostly healthy (except for a bout with COVID I believe), he's pitched more innings than any year since he was 18, and he absolutely earned the promotion to AAA and performed really well since moving up.
  5. jmlease1
    No lie. KC really looks rough. Witt is a real player, and maybe Pasquantino can be a big bat, but they're still looking very thin. The vets almost all look at the end of the line and there's not enough young guys stepping up. Brady Singer might be their only real quality starter? (He's having a very good year on a bad team) They won't be competing for a while, i think. Good to see the Twins handle them easily the last two games, though. Gotta beat up on the bad teams when you play them!
  6. jmlease1
    There's no question that Kepler is the superior OF. He's an excellent defender in the corners with a good arm and he has enough range to backup CF (though clearly the Twins aren't enthusiastic about that any longer). He also seems to be who he is as a hitter now: a low BA hitter who gets on base pretty well but doesn't make enough hard contact to be more than a league average to slightly below average hitter. It seems likely that his 2019 was a fluke year enhanced by the juiced baseball. Wallner isn't a great OF (though his arm is superior) but he's not Delmon Young or Josh Willingham out there. And there's a real chance that his bat will be substantially better than Kepler's. I wouldn't hand him the job on scholarship, but the bottom half of the order has gotten pretty ugly this season and I'm increasingly unenthusiastic about Kepler's bat ending up in the 5th or 6th spot. It's also very possible that he's the lefty version of Brent Rooker at the plate: huge power who doesn't make enough contact for it to matter. (Wallner is better than Rooker in the field, for sure, errors or no)
  7. jmlease1
    No. we claim that a new manager won't matter much if it's the same front office hiring him, because they'll still be implementing the same philosophies, AND because we don't think the manager impacts the game and team nearly as much as people seem to think. And yes, we look down on the people who loudly claim at every opportunity that Rocco only "manages by computer" (a much more pejorative statement than "manages by analytics") when that statement always seems to be about not liking the way baseball is played today by almost everybody, not just the twins. these are not incongruous statements, but whatevs.
  8. jmlease1
    A lot of the reasons for firing Baldelli seem to have a lot more to do with style than substance. There's plenty of projection of things that are organizational decisions that Baldelli is a part of, but not necessarily the sole decider of. Which is also where we get the spurious arguments that Baldelli only "manages by spreadsheet" or "takes his instruction from a computer printout", as if he has no agency or wasn't an elite athlete basically his entire life. If the baseball is not played the way they believe baseball should be played, then it must be Rocco's fault. I remain in the camp of "Meh, Rocco's fine. Probably won't make much difference to change unless a) we manage to land one of the perishingly few truly great managers, or b) the front office is relieved as well."
  9. jmlease1
    I don't think it's a coincidence at all. I think Dusty Baker wrecked both of those pitcher's arms by over-using them, which was basically my point. Teams have become more risk-adverse with their starting pitchers, and that's what drives this. It's easy for us to post on a website about how they should be given a longer leash and how it's not proven that this will cause them to break down, but for the teams, they're dealing with multi-million dollar assets, and losing them can result in huge losses for the franchise. Everyone wants 22 year-old Mark Prior, but no one wants to be the one that turns him into 25 year-old Mark Prior. bean5302's point about max effort and sliders is an insightful one but probably challenging to evaluate. (I suspect team analytic departments are trying to figure out if there's a way to quantify what's gained and lost) Could pitchers throw more if they were throwing at lower effort? Is the trade-off of extra-innings worth reducing spin rates and velocity? very hard questions, because as much as pitchers have improved in terms of velocity, etc (and it's important to remember that 20 years ago mid-90's heat was considered significant if not elite, and very very few threw 100 mph gas) hitters have also improved. pitchers would likely improve their ability to get through the 3rd time of an order if the hitters had no access to technology to see their earlier AB's in real-time. but the league and the fans also want to see more offense, not less.
  10. jmlease1
    No one wants to derail the next Kerry Wood, you know? Wood cleared 120 pitches 8 times in his rookie season (including 133 in his 2nd to last start of the season, a 9-2 win)...and then missed all of 1999. In 2003, he threw 120 or more in 5 of his last 6 starts (#6 he still went 114) and there's a pretty good argument that he was never the same. (2004 he started battling injuries and only made 22 starts, followed by 10 the next season, and 4 the year after that) Wood never started a Major League game in his 30's. Mark Prior is another one that you have to consider. (Dusty Baker really ground those guys up) His last 5 starts in 2003 (at age 22), when they were closing on the division title he threw 120 or more in 5 of his last 6 starts in Sept, including clearing 130 three times. (and then threw 130+ in his first playoff start, followed by chucking 116 in a blowout win for the next one). Battled injuries in 2004 (down to 21 starts), got it back a bit in 2005, was injured and bad in 2006 and never pitched again. 2006 was his age-25 season. How many do you need to have to stop doing this?
  11. jmlease1
    I think part of the question you have to ask is, who are you going to get that will be better and why? I don't think Rocco is a great manager, but I think there are also very very few great managers out there. Most of the managers fall into a squishy middle where as long as they're not making egregious mistakes and alienating their clubhouse, then they're...fine. I think most people overrate the impact of the manager on the game today, partly because we have so many fewer terrible managers out there. So I kind of look at it and say, unless he's really losing the team or the front office is going to be replaced then I'm not sure how much impact a move would actually have? (Other than making some people who have decided that Rocco manages entirely by computer "printout" (yet is responsible for every Twins woe from injuries to errors to bullpen implosions to birds pooping on the field) very happy. At least for 10 minutes before they hate the next guy when he doesn't manage like he's Ozzie Guillen from 2005 or something. If the front office goes, then they should hire a new manager. A new leader should get to pick their manager. (It wasn't great when this current FO had to roll with Molitor for an extra year, for a variety of reasons) If Rocco has lost the clubhouse (and I don't think there's anyone on this site competent to know that), then they should move on. Otherwise, I'm not sure what we accomplish, other than sating a portion of the fanbase that will almost certainly be equally angry again by mid-april because they don't like the state of modern baseball and want the Twins to change it all by themselves to the kind of baseball they prefer to see. While winning playoffs games.
  12. jmlease1
    Festa is an interesting prospect. I would imagine he'll start the year in AA next season, and it'll be interesting to see how his stuff plays up at that level against more advanced hitters. Anyone who can crack 100 mph and control it has to be taken seriously as a prospect, right? Sometimes guys like this can overwhelm A-ball hitters with velocity and it's not sustainable at higher levels when more advanced hitters can stay alive longer in an AB, so Festa's ability to continue to refine his off-speed pitches will be important next season. He's a big, long dude and should be fun to track. Twins have some good scouting in NJ it looks like? Wallner is doing everything asked of him, and I wouldn't mind seeing him challenge Kepler either, who seems to have capped himself out as a hitter at this point. Some people are going to absolutely hate him, though because he WILL whiff. A lot. But you'll also see a hell of a lot fewer weak grounders to 2B. the contact will be hard and loud. His challenge is going to be to make enough of it. It's been his challenge at every level of pro ball, and so far he's meeting it, but the next step is the toughest one of them all. Gotta say, I'd much rather see him as a lefty bat and OF than Jake Cave. Brooks Lee...love that start for him. 16 BBs against 18 Ks? Outstanding. Solid pop in his bat. Maybe he sticks at SS, maybe not (he seems to have the arm for it?) but that's less of a problem than an opportunity. His bat will keep him rising quickly, and I'm here for it. Noah Miller has had an interesting year. Defensively he's looking pretty good, Offensively, he's not hitting much. Zero power, not a ton of contact. I like the walks, but need to see more from the bat. Maybe he gets pushed up to cedar rapids to get him out of the FSL?
  13. jmlease1
    the coaching change I most want to see is moving on from Tommy Watkins as 3B coach. No signal at all to Correa last night who got thrown out by a mile, and it's only one of a litany of WTF moments in Twins baserunning that might have been alleviated by better work from our 3B coach. We've had many inexplicable decisions made over there this season, to the point where it's noticeable and normally your 3B coach is pretty invisible. Bremer even commented on it last night, FFS. He just seems to be making all the mistakes out there: sending guys when he absolutely shouldn't, holding guys when they should go, and failing to signal players to either stop or go. I don't blame the 3B coach if a player runs through the sign, but I do blame the coach when he doesn't signal at all. Move him to 1B or the bench or somewhere else if you like what he brings to the team in other ways, but let's get him away from 3B where he actively costs the team runs & opportunities on what has been a regular basis this season.
  14. jmlease1
    One of the reasons he got pulled after the 7th was because he might very well have gotten through the 8th without still giving up a hit, but sitting on a pitch count north of 120. Because now the pressure really would have been on for Rocco to "let him try" for the no-hitter, regardless of the impact on the pitcher. They don't want any part of starting pitchers throwing 130+ pitches and seeing guys blow their arms out. (Cubs fans are all nodding their heads right now, thinking about Kerry Wood) I'm sure Ryan wasn't thrilled about coming out, but you know what? That's how it goes, and you don't just do something because the player wants it. Managers have to be strong enough to do things that might not be popular but are in the best interests of the team. We need Joe Ryan to be healthy and a staple of this rotation. And clearly, "computer printouts" are the new meme for "anything I don't like" about the Twins. Y'all need some new material.
  15. jmlease1
    there's no take lazier and more tired than the "Rocco & His Computer" takes. There's plenty to criticize the FO on the way they handled this season (especially the offseason, where they didn't make effective moves to bolster the bullpen and made some wobbly decisions on the rotation with limited upside or high risk). There's also plenty to find the good in, especially how aggressive and effective they were at the deadline (even if those moves haven't had all the results we wanted this year). but the "Blah Blah Blah computer Blah Blah Blah Rocco Sux Blah Blah Blah" takes are tired and not remotely helpful.
  16. jmlease1
    The 2020 draft is a tough one. Sabato looks like a bust and Soularie hasn't hit much either. Raya has done well in A-ball this year, and is a long way off, but he does have an electric arm. Rosario might be a nice pick as well; he's slipped a little since his impressive rookie ball season, but still hasn't done too bad in the FSL. But when you only have 4 picks, a miss rate of 50% hurts a lot more for the pipeline than when you have 20 picks.
  17. jmlease1
    I think the Twins are fairly high on him or they wouldn't have sent him to the AFL last year. I was a little surprised to see him move back into the rotation after being used as a reliever at the AFL and in high A, but you can't really argue with the results. I would have expected him to dominate in high-A at 23, especially after the experience in the AFL, but he hasn't slowed down at all in AA. Maybe he'll just be AAA depth next season, but sometimes guys rise above their projections, and with his earlier experience in the bullpen, he's certainly a guy who could get flipped back there if he starts to struggle in AAA/MLB. But it's hard to say that he doens't have a shot to start in MLB after what he's been doing. Great way to close the season for Laweryson. (there's something a little extra fun about late-round picks rising up, isn't there?)
  18. jmlease1
    I'm definitely a fan of SWR. I'm really glad to see him handling promotion to AAA well and continuing to look like a pitcher with real upside. He's back to being a pitcher who is hard to hit, he's found his command again and brought the BBs down to a reasonable level, and he's still getting Ks. This is the most he's pitched in a season as a pro since he was 18, and while he didn't quite have the healthy year that i was hoping for him, he's still made 19 starts and absolutely earned the promotion to AAA. At 21. Next season will be a big one for Martin: he's had some injury issues, the power has been slow to develop, he hasn't truly found a defensive home, and the hits haven't been coming like expected. But the on-base skills are definitely there and the speed is a real asset. And defensively it does feel like the team knows that he can slot into the OF without any real difficulty and they're still trying to figure out what his future is for the infield, which makes it less of a concern? but he's going to have to figure out how to be a more effective hitter, and do it consistently. It's interesting to look at his splits: even when he's struggling, he never falls completely off the cliff: looks like he's only had one time all year where he's gone 2 games without getting on base. (He gets HPBs like he's Don freakin' Baylor) He might be the argument against jumping a player up to high too fast; have to wonder if his development didn't get screwed up by starting his professional career in AA? Fun to see Brooks Lee make such great play at SS. I don't the draftniks were saying he won't stick at SS, but I like the way the Twins seem to be saying "you're a SS until you show us you can't play here".
  19. jmlease1
    Considering there's rarely more than a handful of guys projected as top-end starters, I don't get too wound up if someone is "only" projected as a mid-rotation guy: projection systems always seem to put guys as mid-rotation or back of the rotation guys (probably partly because no one wants to step out and say "this guy can lead your rotation!" and be wrong, and partly because...there's really only 10-20 guys in all of MLB that are really "ace" pitchers). The health issue is a major conundrum for this franchise. Is this something that's (more) controllable? Do they need to gamble less on guys with red (or yellow) flags? Do they need to revamp their medical practices to keep players, especially pitchers, healthy? Should they have a rule that they don't draft any pitcher from Rice, no matter how talented? I'm impressed and pleased with the work they're doing with later round picks and developing them into real prospects. I'm concerned that their top drafted pitching prospects are faltering when they hit AAA or get a shot in MLB.
  20. jmlease1
    I really thought Laweryson was going to be rising up as a reliever, and they seem to have turned him into a starter mid-season? Would love to know more about what the plan is with him. he's gone from looking like just another guy to someone who is really impressing, but I'll admit I thought some of his success this season might have been due to a shift full tie into the 'pen, and now he's back in the rotation. And he's still doing a great job, but I'm really curious if this was a necessity move or if they really think his future is as a starter or what?
  21. jmlease1
    I don't think so. There might be some out there who would, but most managers today would let one of their best hitters hit. Most managers today would prefer to not give up the out, especially with one of the best hitters in baseball at the plate with a superior knowledge of the strike zone. We're not even having this conversation if Arraez gets a hit or a walk there, which he had an excellent chance of doing.
  22. jmlease1
    Arraez is hitting .318 on the season and a hit to the OF ties the game. You're really going to take the bat out of his hands and ask him to sacrifice? Barnes is a RHP and Arraez is hitting .341 for the season against RHP. Calling it a "blunder" by not asking Arraez to sacrifice is just wrong. I mean, come on. A shame that Ryan was homer-happy last night and gave one up with the bases jacked. Solo shots aren't fun but don't hurt that much; when there are ducks on the pond, he's got to keep the ball in the park. Still a fan of him as a pitcher, though. Moran did well. I'm a fan of his: that changeup is a real weapon. He's going to have some struggles with wildness, but he's still a pitcher I want in the bullpen. Miranda definitely made a mistake in not stepping on the bag before going home with the ball; he had the time. Showed his relative inexperience at the position. He's still having a heck of a year.
  23. jmlease1
    Wallner is doing a fine job controlling the strike zone, and after a pretty rough start to AAA. He's never not going to have a pretty big chunk of Ks, but right now it's looking manageable. It's going to be really interesting to watch his splits going forward: 2019 he didn't have much of a split facing LHP vs RHP, 2021, he was significantly worse against LHP. 2022, He's pretty even again. Would be great if he's someone who isn't significantly impacted by facing LHP? 5 BBs by Noah Miller in one game. That's wild. He's definitely got some work to do on contact skills, which is a little worrisome, but always nice to see a young player working walks and not expanding the strike zone to chase after hits when they're scrabbling at the plate.
  24. jmlease1
    I think it was fair to wonder if Nick Gordon was going to develop any kind of power, and last season he looked a lot like a guy who was going to be a light-hitting utility guy whose biggest asset was his willingness and ability to play anywhere. He looked pretty decent as a backup CF, so he had real positional flexibility. This year he's really stepped up and been a much, much better hitter. He's looking like the guy who was having a terrific season at AAA before a) he got hurt, and b) Luis Arraez passed him up. Gordon has all of his health problems under control and he's become a real asset as a player. Love to see it. Happy to see Sanchez obliterate a ball. (And he crushed that one) He'd been in a slump, but has looked pretty good again more recently. (His platoon splits confuse me; before this season he's always hit lefties well and this year he's been basically helpless against them and it's strange) Getting a series win was my goal for the team going into this 3 game set. Be wonderful if they can get the sweep. Anyone else recall when Rosenthal ran that bit on how the Twins were going to finish 5 games behind the ChiSox?
  25. jmlease1
    I love seeing Duran come out of the bullpen in the 7th and mow down the heart of the order for the opposition. He's a huge weapon and I want him pitching, not just being held in reserve. (I'm fine with Lopez coming in earlier than the 9th too; while it's great to have him slam the door like he did last night, I never want either of those guys to be left out just because "it's not the 9th") The bullpen was very good last night. Still a little frustrating on the offense, but I thought the Garlick PH was a good call, even if it didn't work out. We really need some bats to get healthy, because we are very reliant on a small group of quality offensive players right now (and hoping poor ones like Leon or cave can come through with a clutch swing). I can see why the Red Sox like Bello: he's got good stuff. Twins did a good job making him work and punched through enough, but he's definite got talent if he can find the strike zone consistently. (Jerry Meals didn't not exactly have a consistent strike zone, IMHO.)
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