jmlease1

I have no idea if Swanson is the right fit or what kind of contract it would take to get him here, but the fact that he just married Mallory Pugh elevates him substantially in my eyes. :D

"FrRnd" = First Round minors is in parens because the link just takes you to their minor-league stats when you do a search like this in Baseball Reference

With a 7 year deal on Rodon a big market team is almost certainly assuming that they'll miss one of those seasons completely and call it the cost of doing business (and hope maybe they can insure him?). Any pitcher for 7 years is a big risk. A history like Rodon's and it's a massive risk. but this is the advantage of being able to have a $250M payroll: you can buy yourself out of trouble. The Bogaerts deal stunned me too: 11 years is pretty nuts for a guy who has already turned 30 and where PED testing is actually a thing. This isn't Bryce Harper, where the last year of his deal is his age-38 season, Bogaerts is going until he's 41. He's going to have to really be worth it in those first 5 years, because the last 3-4 could be very ugly.

I'm in on Wil Myers, but I don't think it's going to take $12M to get him. He's a quality RH bat who can still play a corner OF spot, but he's getting older, had a rough year, and substantially underperformed his contract the last few years. No one is offering him a 3 year deal, either. Even with money going up, I think he can be had for $8-9M, likely on a 1-2 year deal.

It's a mistake to track back too far to try and establish a pattern in drafting; with a new regime comes a different philosophy and it makes little sense to hold Falvey & Levine responsible for drafting Kohl Stewart or Tyler Jay. They're responsible for trying to develop the draft picks they inherited, but they didn't draft them. What should we presume with this front office when selecting at the top of the draft? Hard to know, i think. They've had 2 top 10 picks in their regime: a HS SS and a college SS. Most of their first round picks have been in the lower parts of the first round, and while that's been mostly college hitters, both of their picks in 2021 were HS players, one a pitcher. I think this front office looks for as much value as they think they can get in a draft more than anything else. They might prefer college players due to risk, but I don't think they're afraid to draft HS kids either. I don't think they'll be afraid to draft a pitcher at #5 if they think it's the best value prospect available.

So hard to know who the right guy is going to be, but there's no question the Twins will have some good options at #5. That high up in the draft, I'd prefer to avoid drafting a HS pitcher unless there's just so much more talent there than any other available option. So many things can go wrong there and I'd rather dodge a little risk with such a high pick when other options are likely to be on the table. But generally, I think with a top 5 pick you take the best player available and figure it out later. I don't know who that's going to be, but I'm excited that the Twins get to find out!

eh. he basically hasn't pitched since 2019 and he's about to turn 39. A minor-league deal isn't really going to hurt the club, so long as there aren't any guarantees of an MLB slot at any point, but this is a lottery ticket move. I think the Twins need to be making moves with better odds.

exciting and excellent news. MN fans are not conditioned to moving up in a lottery, only sliding the other way. Should be a couple of good options at #5 and you never know who might slide. It's an opportunity to add more high-end talent to the system and that's always a good thing. I doubt anyone would complain about getting another player like Brooks Lee!

I think he probably would have gotten a little more run in CF behind Buxton this season except for two factors: 1) we had so many OF getting hurt that we didn't exactly have a surplus in the corners any longer either, 2) if we needed to play celestino because of the truck load of injuries, we were better off playing him in CF than moving kepler over and asking celestino to play a corner spot, and 3) Kepler's busted toe probably meant that even after he came back they were trying to protect him a little bit from having to cover CF. which is also why he ended up batting in the top half of the order more than his production warranted late in the year: who else was gonna go in? I'm not itching to trade kepler, but I would nose around a little and see what the return is, especially if they need to create some payroll space (seems unnecessary, but YNK). I certainly wouldn't move him just to move him and I wouldn't be afraid to slide him into more of a 4th OF role if they sign a big RH bat for RF.

A fair assessment and I think it's where a lot of people are. He's good enough to be a decent starter, but he's made a lot of weak contact in the last couple of years that's very very frustrating. He's a 2+ bWAR player and that's not anything to sneeze at...but it feels like something is missing with Kepler, and he's certainly not hitting like a top half of the order player. If you're not getting plus offense from your corner OF then you need to be finding it elsewhere, and that tends to be harder. I don't think Kepler has had poor luck, though: his average exit velocity is only 51st percentile, his barrel % was below average, his hard-hit rate is only average...sure seems like he deserved to land where he did. Now, he did battle through a broken toe last season that almost certainly sapped his power production, and making the shift go away will likely help him some (but remember, he was a low average hitter back in 2016 & 2017 and certainly wasn't being shifted as much back then). I'm hardly opposed to keeping Kepler, but I'm also not expecting him to suddenly break out again like 2019?

I remember Kepler hitting more weak groundballs to the right side than I do him hitting sharp ones, but YMMV. The case for keeping Kepler is based on two things: 1) our many other LH hitting OFs haven't proven it/stayed healthy, and 2) Kepler's numbers on offense will improve when the shift goes away. Neither is wrong, per se, but the arguments for moving on from Kepler are reasonable as well. 1) we need a little more balance in the lineup and some thump from the RH side, which is easier to find in the corner OF, 2) Kepler's ability to play CF and provide superior defense in RF gives him trade value on this contract, and 3) it's a gamble to hope that eliminating the shift is going to send enough of those bouncers to the right side through for hits to make Kepler and above average hitter in RF again. Kepler isn't a bad player, but his offense hasn't been above average since 2020 and his OPS has declined four seasons in a row. It makes it hard to feel confident in him as a significant contributor. Twins shouldn't give him away, and he can still add value to the team, but they should also be willing to consider moving on from him if the right RH bat becomes available and a reasonable deal is on the table.

I think we should calm down before we start presuming that Joe Ryan can't pitch against "good" teams. cherry-picking out 4-5 starts in his rookie season doesn't really tell you much, and he certainly pitched just fine against Cleveland, which was a quality team last year. 4 of his worst starts against those "top" teams were road outings, but I don't think that's enough evidence that Joe Ryan can't pitch on the road. If he can limit the free passes and keep the ball in the park he's going to be a quality pitcher and key part of the rotation again. I'm still a big fan and this was an elite trade.

Why this keeps coming up? The offseason is long and people get bored? Of the 4 deals you mention, the Twins came out well for Kepler and Polanco's contracts; even with Kepler not having a great year in 2022 he was still worth 2.1 bWAR and definitely more than his less than $7M salary (and has done for the length of his contract). It's also why people still talk about him having trade value. Polanco's deal has been an absolute steal for the team. The Dobnak deal hasn't worked out, but also has cost them very little. If he can get healthy and be a quality reliever, then they could still end up about even on that one. The Sano one didn't work out for the team, but the decision-making around it was sound, so I don't have any real objections to how they're moving on extensions. If the Twins add high-end talent through free agency this off-season they can absolutely contend, whether it's bringing back Correa, or adding Rodon plus a big bat, or whatever. Health is what snuffed out this team's chances last season, not talent. Polanco is a key part to that lineup, a consistent veteran presence and they would have to get a ridiculous, staggering return (which they won't) to make dealing Polanco worth it.

I'm a big no on trading Polanco. The argument here seems to be "he's not very good defensively, has a lot of trade value because his bat and contract, and we have Julien waiting in the wings". But Julien is a worse defender and untested as a major league hitter, so what are we really doing here? A healthy Polanco isn't bad defensively at 2B and is certainly good enough to get by. (and let's be clear, with his terrible knees I wouldn't expect Arraez to hold up well at 2B for a full season either) But the real issue is, we have a superior hitter with a team-friendly contract who is already tested at the MLB level and has performed at an all-star level. If he was going into his final season, maybe it's worth considering, but we've got Polanco for 3 more years if we want him at well below market rate. He makes this lineup significantly better and gives us financial flexibility to add more pieces without having to hope an untested player will come through. This team is too talented to trade away a player like Polanco. We're not in rebuild mode and dealing Polanco would be waving the white flag. Might as well deal every veteran at that point.

I agree that "ace" is too subjective. Some people define it as "Cy Young contender", others as "legit #1 starter", and others might define it as "guy you want starting game 1 of a playoff series". I look at Mahle and see a pitcher that reminds me a little of Brad Radke in terms of production. (they're different pitchers, of course; Mahle gets a lot more Ks, Radke walked way fewer, etc) But he fits that mold to me in terms of the results you might get. That's not a bad thing. Let's hope Mahle is healthy. If he is, I think he's going to have a very good season. I certainly wouldn't complain about him starting game 1 of a series, to be sure.

From a marketing standpoint for Boras & Correa, if they sign with the Twins, they can fold last year's money into the total package if hitting a bigger overall number is especially meaningful to them. Sure it's nothing but marketing fakery, but why would they care? I hope someone from the Twins makes sure to mention that idea, because why the hell not? 9/$285M + 1/$35M still gets them to a bigger number than Seager...

superstars in baseball get paid $30M+ now. To make it in the top 50 in MLB started at $20M in 2022; even back in 2015 over 100 players topped $10M per season. yes, $100M is a lot of money, but in the context of MLB...it's not any longer. Buxton played at an all-star level last season: his defense was still superior in CF, even with the bum knee and his OPS was .833 when the league average was .706. He had an OPS+ of 135. To put that OPS+ in context, the Philadelphia Phillies (who made the World Series) had exactly 1 regular who had a higher OPS+: Bryce harper, who clocked in at 145. (Harper is a fun comp: he's unquestionably a superstar, had a serious injury that limited to roughly the same number of games as Buxton, made 2.5 times as much, and added less overall value) It's disingenuous to say his batting average "hovered around .200 for most of the year"; that makes it sound like he was batting around .200 for most of the season and the reality is his batting average never got all the way down to .200 and really it was only a week where he was sitting close to the Mendoza Line. He spent much more of the year in the .220-.230 range, in a season where the MLB average was .243. I think a successful season for Buxton is about staying on the field more than anything else. If he can play 125 games or more with better overall health, it's a big win. He's plenty productive when he plays, but the fact that we needed to replace his impact for so many games is a problem. The dropoff is severe. Buck missed 70 games last season; if he can cut that in half this team will be substantially better. But he was 100% worth the money he got last year.

It's a possibility to be sure, but the skill set that makes Correa great at SS isn't based just on speed, which should age better. His superior defense is also based on his great arm and sure hands. he sets up deeper which a) gives him more time to react, and b) allows him to get to more balls in short left. He's also such a student of the game that he always positions himself well. There's a real possibility that his defense at SS ages much more like Cal Ripken, who was still playing great SS at age 34. Correa's one of those players that could easily keep playing shortstop into his mid-30's, and with his arm would have no trouble sliding down to 3B if his range slips to the point where a replacement is needed. Set the over/under on his remaining years at SS at 4 and I would bet the over, which makes a longer term deal with him more palatable.

I'd be a big no an opt-out after year 1. really don't want to do this dance again after just one year? year two? ok, if it's what gets the deal done, but this structure almost guarantees he opts out if he's healthy and is extremely player-friendly for a guy who still has injury red flags. But I would love to have Rodon at the top of the rotation. I don't have a very good feel on what he gets for a contract in terms of dollars. It kinda feels like $125M is more in the range where the team assumes he's going to be hurt for one year out of the 5, and hopes it doesn't come until year 4...

I think that the number one thing this move tells us is that the Pohlad family isn't looking to sell the franchise and is looking to keep it going as a family business. One of the reasons Glen Taylor sold the Timberwolves was there wasn't anyone in his family that was particularly interested in the team and wanted to run the club. Having someone from the next generation stepping into a senior role now suggests that the Pohlad family is looking at continuity. One of the reasons the family kept the team after Carl died was Jim wanted to keep running the team. Now they may have someone in the family that will want to keep running the team after Jim ages out or passes. Sometimes long-time family ownership works really well. (Rooneys in Pittsburgh are model owners) Sometimes, maybe not (how have the Fords done in Detroit?). Baseball seems to have struggled with family ownership lasting multiple generations in recent years, so it'll be interesting to see if the Twins go to a 3rd generation Pohlad. I'm sure this will also inspire a level of fury in some fans who think that all of our woes and budget caps will go away if the Pohlads would just sell the team and now it seems like they may have the family in control for the foreseeable future...

So, you're happy to go to war with a lineup featuring (in order) the reigning AL MVP, a former RoY and 2-time all-star, a 4-time all-star and cleveland's best hitter, the reigning NL MVP, a 25 year-old all-star & GG winner, a former RoY current all-star & silver slugger (who is 25), a 4-time all-star and 2-time GG winner, a 3-time all-star (I'm assuming you're talking trea Turner?), and a 3-time all-star and 2 time GG winner. Yeah, i think I'd be pretty happy with that lineup too, and it has basically nothing to do with RBIs: you've simply picked a lineup of 9 of the best players in baseball. (BTW, the payroll for the starting lineup would be at least $180M in 2023; if you can spend $20M per spot in the lineup, your team should be pretty effin' good) You didn't just pick a bunch of Abreus: you took MVPs and gold glove winners. You took some of the most complete players in all of baseball. Abreu is an interesting fit for the twins: there's opportunity at 1B & DH for him in the lineup and he provides serious hitting ability from the right side, which would help balance the lineup. He's been very consistent and healthy, which could mitigate the risk of signing an older player. But my interest in him has little to do with his RBI totals and more in what he could do as a hitter overall: good average, very good OBP, slugging that varies from good to elite...there's a lot in Abreu to like as a RH hitter who nukes lefties and is still very very good against righties. He has no defensive value and can only play 1B or DH, but the Twins have room there, even if we might prefer to get a guy who could give some time in the OF. But he also has the advantage of taking away a great hitter from a division rival.

I don't mind early moves to set the floor for the ballclub. And I appreciate the front office understands that raising the floor of the team and making sure you have competent players at every spot is an easy and important way to ensure that you can field a competitive team. Just removing innings from bad/incompetent players is smart. Which is why keeping Pagan is baffling to me. He hasn't been good in several years, he gives the fanbase PTSD, and now he costs $4M. I really hope he's moved before the season. But the real show is going to be: what do we do we all that payroll space? I want high end talent, not a bunch of guys on $8-10M deals.

Noah Miller was a first round pick, not sure he qualifies as underrated. Laweryson was also sent to the AFL last year and had a notable season where he moved up to AA and slid back into a starting role. Had a lot of discussion on this site as well, so again...is he really underrated? Cardenas is definitely one that was not on my radar and I want to know more about. 23 years old in A ball is definitely old for the level, but If he moves up by midseason to AA he won't be doing too badly for a catcher. His arm doesn't look all that great, but just peeking at the Passed Balls he seems like he blocks the plate pretty well? His power production has fluctuated quite a bit, but a SLG over .400 in the FSL is solid enough. Catching depth in the system has seemed thin, so if Cardenas emerges that would be a big deal.

I really hope it works out for Kirilloff. He's a terrific hitter with a great eye and a sweet swing. The wrist injury has been really unfortunate, and they had to take a pretty extreme measure this time to try and get him to a point where he can swing without pain. (any time you have to break a bone intentionally as part of a process to shorten it...that's a really big deal) The skills are there, and he should be an adequate corner OF or a superior 1B defensively, and his production if healthy would be more than solid at DH as well. You just can't know on health. If they've found the permanent fix for him, he could be a huge part of this team. If it didn't work, then he's going to have another frustrating and disappointing season (and he'll be as frustrated and disappointed as anyone). I believe in the talent. You can choose to assume he'll be injured and have no power and not be a viable player, or you can choose to hope for health. I suspect the Twins will presume health, but have a backup plan in case he can't go.

I tend to agree with the growing consensus that Maeda is a starter unless we go out and get someone like Rodon. I do think Maeda would be excellent in a 2+ inning relief role and that the Twins have a real need to have 2 of those guys in the bullpen that get regular use (not just mop up/long relief guys for when the starter gets shelled) because we have several starters that are unlikely to go 6-7 innings with any consistency (primarily through their own ability or lack thereof). Maeda could fill that role very effectively. But unless we go get another starter, I think you have to give Maeda the opportunity to take a role in the rotation. He's likely still better than Winder/Varland/SWR right now and the opening day rotation should have the best 5 guys in it. No scholarships. (I'm still of the belief that unless we get someone like Rodon who raises the ceiling for the rotation, that we shouldn't be looking to add a "veteran starter". No more Bundy types)