jmlease1

He's 27. Other than a 7 game stretch in low-A where he was definitely older that his competition, he's never had a SLG% over .500 in his pro career. Last season in AAA was easily his best year as a pro and it's not really all that close. He might be a useful minor league depth option, but he's going to struggle to find a spot on the 40-man without serious injury to other guys who are up the depth chart from him, which limits his ability to get a shot in MLB. Larnach is younger with a stronger overall track record; it would take a lot of recency bias to put Contreras over him on any depth chart. Hard to see him coming up this year without Kepler/Kirilloff landing on the 60-day IL and Larnach struggling in AAA.

A very good point. Despite a significant injury to Garver, the Twins still only used Rortvedt for 34 games and 94 PAs as a catcher last season. While I do believe that a great way to raise the floor of your team and capture additional wins is to give as few innings to bad players as possible, 3rd catcher does appear to be one of those areas where a) it probably doesn't hurt you that much, and 2) there aren't all that many innings for it to suck up. I know a lot of people are down on Sanchez as a catcher and have pre-emptively decided that he should never play back there for fear of frightening the horses or something, but it may be a bit overstated. It's only been in the last 2 years that the struggles have really gotten bad, and it's certainly possible that the focus from the loud and populous NY media and fans may have messed with his head.

Rooker crushes AAA pitching. (he did it in 2019, he did it in 2021) He got waxed against MLB pitching in 2021, hurt or not. he looks increasingly like a AAAA player: too good to sit in AAA but not skilled enough to play in MLB. His performance in 2020 really doesn't count: 7 games late in the season doesn't really tell you anything other than dude had a good week.

Honestly, this doesn't make much sense to me. If the wave of prospects we have moving along right now all graduate to the MLB club this season, then it's cause for celebration and we're not going to worry about whether we have a dip in minor league depth. If several of them aren't ready in 2022, then they're at the top of the list for 2023, along with the A & AA-ball guys that should be advancing. It's not like we're going to give up on Josh Winder if he struggles in his first year in MLB and ends up spending a good chunk of the year at AAA. From a prospect perspective, we're in solid shape where we have a significant wave of prospects arriving around the same time; the risk to our system is if too many of these guys bust all at once. but 2023 isn't where the "problem" is: it's 2024, and only if 80% of these guys flame out on us. If only 1 of Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, Woods-Richardson, Sands, Strotman, and Enlow makes it as an MLB starter in the next two seasons, we're in trouble. If three of these guys graduate from prospect to rotation (along with Ryan & Ober), then...we're insulated. If Martin, Lewis, Miranda, Steer and Wallner all fall down while neither Kirilloff or Larnach seize jobs...then yeah, we're in trouble. (since Miller, Cavaco, Soularie, and Urbina all look a little farther off) but this is the way it always is for small to mid-market teams: if guys don't develop and graduate into being quality starters and you don't develop any all-stars internally...then yeah, you're in trouble. but I'm not worried about whether guys use up their rookie eligibility, I'm worried about whether or not they're quality players. If they do, then it's easy enough to supplement your roster with a free agent or two to fill in holes where you don't have prospects (catcher and SS being the hardest).

I do think we have to develop our pitching pipeline internally to have long-term success. And I feel much more strongly about the guys that are lined up to go this year than last year from that young crop of pitchers. Last year, we were hoping that Dobnak was for real, Thorpe could put it together, Smeltzer was ready as being some of the top depth guys along with Duran (who was the only guy who really looked like he had the big upside). I feel more strongly about Winder, Canterino, Balazovic, & Woods-Richardson than I did about Dobnak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer. We will see. If this whole next wave of pitchers flame out, then everyone is probably going to get fired, if not this year than next. If 2-3 of this next group of 8-10 (and I'm counting Ober & Ryan as "graduated") become rotation fixtures before the end of 2023...then the team is probably in good shape.

Gedoy...Sisco...Rortvedt...probably not a ton of difference between them? Maybe Sisco will show he can hit enough to be a good backup/platoon partner to Jeffers. Stash Sisco in AAA and see what happens. I'm on the "dump Rooker for Garlick" train; we know Garlick can mash on lefties if he's healthy and is decent enough in the corners. Rooker hasn't shown he can hit anything, is rotten in the OF, and is old enough that his remaining options don't really mean all that much. Coulombe was a guy I was happy stayed in the organization. He was solid last season and makes for a nice lefty option if they weren't ready to hand the slot to Moran (who I remain high on). I suspect he might not stick when rosters go back down to 26, but he's a useful middle inning reliever.

Ugh, way too many pitchers on the opening day roster projections. Having a 10 man bullpen is ridiculous, truncated spring training or not, and the possibility of only having a 3 person bench is simply wrong. Even if we're going with a lot of "5 and fly" starts this season, we just don't need this many pitchers, especially if they're planning on getting someone like Winder regular work of more than 1 inning at a time (which they need to be or he should be in Saint Paul).

I'm fine with Ryan getting tapped to start Opening Day. While it may be seen as a Holy Day to many baseball fans, it's still just another start. I'm guessing they wanted to make sure Gray had enough time to get stretched out and be ready, and the off-day immediately after opening day probably helps that a bit. And the way the schedule lines up, we don't need Archer to jump in as the 5th starter right away if he's not ready. I'm a big fan of Ryan and the trade was a great one. I think the thing to watch with him this year is how much damage he can limit on the home run, because he's going to give up some. If he can keep the HR/9 around 1.4 and the BB/9 around 2.5 I think he's going to have a nice season and lock himself in as a mainstay in the rotation. But we need those dingers to be solo shots rather than 2 or 3 run blasts. He certainly gets Ks and his secondary pitches were better than advertised, IMHO. Looking forward to seeing who can barrel up on that water polo fastball, 'cause I think he's going to win a lot of matchups.

Rooker is an example for why you can't get too excited about a guy after 7 games. Why you have to be careful about taking late season results as evidence for future performance. He might be a bit better than the guy we saw last year...but he's 27 and the odds of him having a sudden breakout seem small. He's a bad defender in the OF, doesn't really play 1B (although he could probably learn) and his ceiling is a poor man's Adam Dunn. I rooted for him, and when he connected those moonshots were super fun to watch...but he's a AAAA player, I think. If they waive him, he's got decent odds of passing through unclaimed.

This. I'm fine with Cave being a "break glass" option stashed in AAA for if Buxton is on the 60-day IL, Celestino is struggling, Gordon is looking rough, and Martin isn't ready. But he doesn't belong on the opening day roster or the 40-man. I'd probably go Garlick over Rooker at this point too, because this team can win now and carrying a guy like Rooker and hoping he'll start making contact and not chasing any half-decent slider isn't a bet to be made. I have no illusions about who Garlick is, but he can mash up on lefties and would make a fine platoon partner for Kepler or could be used to protect Kirilloff on occasion. Not sure there's any need to add any of these pitchers to the 40-man; hard to say they're clear upgrades (I'd bring Duran north for sure over any of them) and if you need another lefty in the bullpen there's Moran sitting right there with his evil changeup.

There's really no reason you shouldn't expect Polanco to have an all-star caliber season, except for the assumption that Twins fans can't have nice things. He's coming off a great season, he's playing his best position and locked in there (with an all-star locked in next to him), he's in the prime of his career, he was healthy last season...if he's an "If" then I don't know where you find certainty.

Moran is not a LOOGY, though: his changeup makes him effective against righties too. His issue is whether or not he can control things well enough to not issue a million walks. I think he's got a bright future and personally i would have him in the bullpen to start the year (especially if we carry 14-15 pitcher), but I wouldn't limit him to just going after the toughest of lefties. He's got more than that. (and I looooove his changeup.)

Fair. They're pretty comparable a the plate but I do think Wallner has better odds of being functional in RF. The arm is excellent and he probably moves better than Rooker? This is an interesting year for Wallner: he did well last season in high A, but was essentially a year behind because of the pandemic. I'm never entirely sure where to place the AFL, but I usually think of it as around AA in terms of competition? And Wallner did great there, even with the barrage of Ks. We may not know if Wallner can make enough contact to be a quality bat until (if?) he gets to MLB. So far Rooker has not been able to adjust and is facing his last chance here at 26. For me there's no reason to move on from kepler after this year unless it's a really good deal; I'm fine with running him out there for the next two seasons and enjoying his defense while hoping beyond hope that he adjusts a little better at the plate. I also tend to look at the corner OF spots as one position with two slots, rather than strictly defining it as RF/LF. Maybe 2023 is Kepler & Larnach as the prime pair, with Martin as depth. Maybe it's Martin & Kepler, with Celestino as the depth guy? 2024 could be Wallner & Larnach, with Martin as a 4th OF who gets plenty of time playing all over. we're not as deep as we might like in guys who are locked in or rising up as sure things, but the cupboard isn't bare either.

At a certain point it stops being luck and it starts being who you are as a player. Kepler has been banging way too many balls into the shift and had too much weak contact for his current approach at the plate. He's still not a terrible player: it's decent (if frustrating) offense coupled with quality defense and some positional flexibility that makes him a solid starter...but he's no longer showing much in the way of star potential. (Bonnes is probably right: banning the shift will help him to some degree) Looking at his Savant numbers and there really isn't that much red...more like pink. His StatCast hasn't had any red on it for years. He doesn't have any blue on him, but he's also missing a lot of the deep red that shows up for really impactful players. Kepler is worth what he's being paid, but unless he makes some adjustments, this is who he is as a hitter. I suppose Rooker is still depth for the team at RF for now? He's not a great OF at either corner, but he can survive out there if he's hitting (which I don't expect much from that end either at this point; he doesn't make enough contact for his prodigious power to play, so again: make the adjustment Mr. Rooker or you will not be long for the roster). There's some good options coming up for RF in the system (Wallner & Rosario both have real potential) but it's a little thin right now. I suspect it would be a shuffle of Kirilloff to RF and Larnach to LF, but maybe they'd try Larnach there straight up.

The comments on the bullpen in this thread are proof positive of how firmly first impressions can get set in cement. The bullpen for the second half of the season did fine, even after losing Rogers to injury. And that group was cobbled together on the fly, so why exactly are people so down on the bullpen? Right now, it looks like we have a decent set of options to start the season, and the pecking order is going to play itself out as guys rise and fall. (except probably for Rogers, who is arguably the team's best pitcher, but even guys like him can have down years) I still don't expect this team to have strictly defined roles (i.e., Rogers is the "closer" and pitches the 9th in save situations, Duffey is an 8th inning set-up man, etc). I think they're going to play matchups and use their best relievers against a team's best hitters. More firemen, less strict roles. And that's a good thing, IMHO. there's nothing sacred about the 9th inning. And some of this is going to depend on what they expect out of Jax & Duran: are they going to be expected to be multi-inning relivers or more like 1 inning guys? I suspect the former. Duran has the stuff to be a late-game, high-leverage pitcher, but the twins probably haven't given up entirely on him starting, so may want to use him in longer stints in his first year in MLB. Feels like they have enough bodies to cycle through as they decide how they want to deploy pitchers. It might be nice to have one more RHP with extra velocity in his arsenal, but I feel pretty good about the overall group and their ability to get outs.

It depends on how much they want to put Arraez in the field at 3B vs urshela I think? Early on I can see it being primarily Sanchez while they're carrying a 3rd catcher. Once they go down to 2, you may see Arraez (and others) get more time there. It's...fine?

I'm a little disappointed that Celestino didn't grab the 4th OF spot by the neck, because if he hits anything like he did at AAA last season he's wonderfully suited for it. But he didn't, so playing every day in AAA isn't the worst thing in the world. I still have hope for him that he can be a quality bat who can play all three OF spots. It kinda feels like Cave sticking around in MLB camp is just some epic-level trolling of Twins fans. I have trouble believing that they would add him back to the 40-man just to have him around for the first few weeks of the season, even if he has turned in the kind of quality spring training ABs you would expect from a 29 year-old veteran with 4 seasons of MLB experience. If anything the twins are more likely to scour the waiver wire to see if anyone else is going to sneak someone through during last cuts rather than jam Cave back on the 40-man, but there's no question his presence is making some people around here twitchy AF.

Was it, though? You could make the argument that it was a more accomplished rotation going into the season with Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, Happ, and Shoemaker...but the rotation last season was dreadful and had zero depth. Berrios was the only one who was good and healthy (until getting traded) and even Maeda had a rotten start and overall was a below average pitcher even before having to shut it down. We gave 58 starts to pitchers with ERAs of 6+ (ok, I'm rounding up on Charlie Barnes' 5.92). Frankly, it'll take some real effort for Bundy and Archer to be worse than Happ & Shoemaker. Pineda was pretty good, but his various injuries limited him to 109 innings. Maeda had an ERA+ of only 91. I think Ober and Ryan will improve on that (YMMV on by how much). The issue is Berrios was better than any of them (even Gray, who was more like Pineda in terms of effectiveness, even if he was a bit healthier). The floor is higher on the rotation from last year because a) the FA signings last season were so brutally bad, b) the depth behind them was also dreadful (until we brought up Ober & Ryan), c) this year's signings are likely to be less awful, and d) the depth behind them is more talented. Bring up the floor on the rotation and this team improves pretty quickly. Top end starters have more impact in the playoffs, but you don't even get there if you don't raise the floor.

I think this is a really good point. We've seen a few guys come through that had some serious gas...that was also straight as an arrow and MLB hitters can lock in on it in a way that minor leaguers can't. Just because they can throw high 90's doesn't necessarily make them terribly effective. Tyler Duffey has gotten battered around here quite a bit over the last year and there's been a lot of focus on his loss of velocity...but he was still a more effective pitcher than the high heat that Graterol gave LA. I do agree with the statement that the big velocity give a pitcher more room for error, but having an unusual pitch/approach or two pitches that pair really well with each other is also an advantage. I'd love to know if there's enough data to show if there's any correlation to a sidearmers effectiveness in relation to the number of other sidearm guys there are in the league, for example. Of course, if Duffey gets his velocity back up to the mid 90's and spends the season paired with Alcala & Duran each gunning it down...are we really that worried about bullpen velocity? Pitching is about wrecking a hitter's timing. velocity is a useful tool in that arsenal, but not the only one. And I really hate committing big salaries to relievers, when time and time again you see these guys dominate one season and then be just another guy the next. Kimbrel was worth the $16M he made last season...was he worth the $26M he was contracted for over the previous two? (nope)

I think this is the rotation we're going to ride with to start the season. While I would have preferred some investment in higher end pitchers...we also got Correa, so there's that? I don't know that the rotation is necessarily set for the season, but it's feeling like Montas isn't going to move any time soon (and will command a big haul at the trade deadline just like Berrios did for the Twins last year) so Oakland is sitting back much the same way the twins have done and aren't going to move him just to move him, but want some big-time offers. It's hard to know just what that means for the Twins and I feel like with a lot of their most gifted prospects that we would be selling low on them. Our top pitching prospects are almost all coming off injury, Royce Lewis is coming off an injury and hasn't played in quite a while, Austin Martin had some struggles where his power potential has been called into question, so while Twins fans love a lot of these guys and see their vast potential...as trade chips, they're all going to get discounted to some extent by other teams. While I'm into trading for Montas, who is a really good pitcher, it may be that to get him right now would cost a pretty ridiculous haul. We just signed Chris Archer, and his bio is a warning sign on this kind of deal: Archer had a stronger overall track record when he was dealt (but wasn't coming off a peak season) and yielded a big haul for TB, and then things went to hell for him. Glasnow & Meadows each had more value last season alone than Archer did for the past 4 seasons combined. So It's fair to be wobbly about how many prospects you believe in you should give up to get Montas. For Manea, I was reminded of what Gleeman was saying on the podcast this week: how much better is he than say, Josh Winder in our eyes? He's more proven, but if it takes Winder plus another top 10 prospect to get Manea then...maybe that's not all that exciting if you think Winder is ready this season and can be as good right now. Manea reduces risk, but doesn't necessarily make a major improvement in the team. I think the twins will consider being active at the deadline to add if the team is positioned well. At the same time, I do think the "next 5" (Winder, Canterino, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, and Strotman) we have coming up if/when Gray, Bundy, Archer, Ober, and Ryan falter/get hurt is stronger and more ready than the group we had last year? (And that's assuming they run Duran into the bullpen this season) So the thought process, based on where we are now makes sense to me. I think they should have done better to secure higher-end pitching during the early days of free agency, and they deserve to be poked for that, because I think they could have done that and still made the deals that led to Correa. But I think I would rather give the younger guys a chance to make it in MLB over dealing 2 of them for Manea, and I think it's reasonable that the Twins aren't interested in giving up a package that includes Royce lewis/Austin Martin and 3 of Sands/Winder/Canterino/Balazovic/Varland/Woods-Richardson/Duran. (and who knows if right now that's even enough for Oakland, since so many of our best prospects had injuries last season?)

Seems unlikely? And the OF is only "bad" if our starters are missing extended amounts of time: Buxton is an MVP-caliber player, Kepler is a fine defender in the corners who gives decent offensive production, and Kirilloff profiles as an above-average hitter. People need to stop panicking about Cave. He's not on the 40-man, so the only way he's going to be at target Field is if someone gets an injury significant enough to put them on the 60-day IL AND options like Celestino and Larnach aren't ready/working out. He's the emergency backup to the backup, a "break glass" player so that we're not trying to shuffle a Rob Refsnyder into CF and hope that he survives.

Feels like the plan this season is for Gordon to backup the spot if Buxton needs a day off and hopefully have Celestino jump in if he's hitting and looks ready. (I'm personally hoping Celestino shows he's ready right away, because he's a great fit as a 4th OF, IMHO). Cave looks like he's a "break glass" guy this year: we'll only see him if someone gets an injury serious enough to move someone to the 60-day IL which would allow him to be added back to the 40-man. At least I hope so. He hasn't been good in too long for me to be happy about his presence on the MLB squad. I don't think the Twins want to see Royce at CF at all this year; this is the year they want to find out once and for all if he can handle SS. I think there's better odds of seeing Martin float in there if there's a rash of injuries. He can play the spot and should be ready to get his first shot in MLB by mid-season I think. We're better off here than we were last season, but if Buxton gets hurt for an extended period it will hurt. But that has as much to do with Buxton being such an elite player as it does with the Twins depth at the spot.

I'm probably a bit optimistic on the innings, but I do see him as someone who can go deeper in games if healthy. I don't think he's going to be a 3-4 inning combo guy, and they'll try to stretch him out if his shoulder can hack it.

Whether this move works out will really come down to whether or not Archer is healthy. Because he's decent enough even at his worst to hold down the 5th spot and chew up innings for you in a way that the collective disaster of Happ, Shoemaker, Jax, Dobnak, and Barnes could not last season. (that's 58 starts we gave to guys with ERA's of 6 or more. I'm rounding up on Barnes. Sorry, Charlie) Also, the only way Ober or Ryan are not in the rotation this season is if they start the season terribly and get sent down to AAA to get back on track. (Which could happen) But there's basically no chance they're not in the rotation on opening day. I also think there's very little chance of completing a deal for Manea or Montas before the season starts, unless Oakland suddenly comes down in price; every indicator right now is they want the sun and the moon and are willing to wait until the deadline to make a move if they don't get it. Fine: I'll play chicken on that one. My prediction on Archer: 22 starts, 130 innings, ERA around 4.50. Raises the floor, and holds down the fort until more of the next wave are ready. Probably has 2 stints on the IL.

It's funny (well, not all that funny, really), but even if Archer pitches no better than he did last season with the Rays and is just healthier...it'll still be a significant improvement over what we got out of the 58 (58!) starts we gave to Happ, Shoemaker, Jax, Dobnak, and Barnes last season. Of that 5, only Barnes had an ERA under 6 (congrats, Charlie: 5.92 was the best of the worst). That's how dreadful our starting pitching was last season. If Archer can lend basic competence to the group, then he's a decent veteran addition. If he can't stay healthy and can't perform, we can walk away pretty easily. I'm hoping this is a "raise the floor" move that helps us hold the line and let what should be a pretty good offense keep us in games. I'm a big believer that the easiest way to improve your team from being bad to good is to stop giving innings to bad pitchers and ABs to bad hitters. Reduce the amount of time you let terrible players on the field. We had a lot of starts and innings from terrible starters last season. Healthy, Archer should be at least ok. Would I have preferred someone with a better recent track record and greater likelihood of higher value? Sure. But as a raise the floor move, I'm still happy with this. (removing all those ABs from likes of Jake Cave, Astudillo, Rooker, Refsnyder, et al will help too...)