jmlease1

They signed Donaldson expecting to contend in the first two years of that deal and if they had an overpay in the last two years they were willing to accept that risk in favor of making a bigger push for those first two years. The first year, the Twins did contend, but Donaldson wasn't available in the playoffs, which was a big reason they signed him. Last year was a wreck for a variety of reasons, so they missed the window they expected to contend with Donaldson's expected peak value with the team. There's a difference between a bad call and things just not quite working out. Donaldson didn't quite work out, partly because of a weird pandemic season (in a normal year they probably could have made sure he was healthy going into the playoffs, instead of the weird sprint all teams were in) and partly because literally everything went wrong at the same time last season (which literally no one saw coming: all the projection systems had the Twins competing last year, and so did our fan base, which is also why so many people are so freakin' angry at the FO today; the disappointment seems to hit even harder than the performance). The thinking behind the move was sound...it just didn't work out the way they hoped. Donaldson actually provided fair value in those first two years, but injury timing was bad. I think they saw this as an opportunity to get out from under the 4th year, and they took it. It's less about whether he's deteriorating rapidly vs just declining overall and where their window is shifting. Donaldson and his salary and his decline are greater risk to the team's prospects for 2023. And if moving the salary now positions themselves for someone like Story, then that's another risk they'll assume because that move sets themselves up to compete in 2022 while being in a very strong position for 2023 and forward, as opposed to having things be out of alignment in 2023. Garver was probably not going to be a factor in 2023 either; he was going to be 32 at that point and if he's a guy who struggles to reach 100 games, you're not going to give him a significant extension. (remember, Garver has actually player fewer games over the past 3 seasons than the oft-injured Byron Buxton, is older, and plays the most strenuous position in the game) So this feels like a move made to try and get good value now for a player that was falling out of future plans. But at the end of the day it comes down to what the next move is. If they land Story and Pineda, I look at this team and think they should be good enough to contend in the AL Central. If they don't, then the FO will have really made a mistake that can get trashed for, because they will have waited to deploy their budget until it was too late to give them any options if they missed on a critical signing.

Yeah, it's really hard to put Cavaco on any list right now when he's closer to busting out of the system entirely than anything else. He's still young, so there's time, but I'd rank Kala'i Rosario or Rodriguez ahead of Cavaco for power projection right now. It's a bit of a coin flip on who actually has the bigger power projection between Wallner & Sabato: they both have huge power. Both have significant issues with contact. But when they do get the bat on the ball it flies a long damn way, as far as anyone. For all that the Twins are accused of going to big swinging sluggers...there's actually not a ton of them progressing through the system right now? Some of that is guys like Rooker, Kirilloff, & Larnach graduating, and some of it has been a focus on pitching, but right now there aren't a ton of sluggers really rising in the system right now.

The more I think about it, how I feel about this trade will entirely depend on what we do with the next couple of moves. If this deal unlocks things to the point where we land Trevor Story (I'm not even going to pretend we're in on Correa)...then it's probably all worth it. Straight up, I'm not a fan, really: Sanchez is a mess. He's a bad catcher who has become a poor man's Sano at the plate. We're not getting 2019 Sanchez (who was Mitch Garver-ish). Could he rebound now that he's out of NY, away from the spotlight, maybe gets his confidence back, works with some new coaches...maybe? And it wouldn't take much improvement for him to be a quality (if frustrating) option. But he could easily go the other way and keep spiraling and be unplayable at catcher. Urshela is more of a utility player to my mind: not sure how well he'll hold up at SS (which seems to be the reason the Yankees moved on from him) and not sure he'll hit well enough to be a regular at 3B. Donaldson is still a really good player, an excellent hitter who still plays good defense at 3B (even if you have to watch his time in the field carefully). If he can stay on the field for 130-140 games, he's worth the money. He was one of the Twins best offensive players last year (Behind Buxton & Garver when they were healthy, and Cruz while he was here) and likely would have been again. Rortvedt is a player I was high on; his defense is quality (and after years of the Gary Sanchez Experience, he's going to look amazing to Yankees fans), but he wasn't a strong offensive player in the minors and every criticism people had of his offense has so far proven true in the MLB. It's a small sample, but right now he's little more than a defensive replacement and a backup you don't want playing much because the offense is horrific. So losing him doesn't hurt that much, but Donaldson will be missed. Yankees got the best player in this deal, which always says some things. But if shedding Donaldson's salary while still getting back useful MLB players also positions us to sign Trevor Story and Michael Pineda to finish the bulk of the off-season (I expect we'll add 1 more RHP for the bullpen too)...then in context this deal works. In a vacuum, it feels like the Yankees got the better end of it. If at the start of the off-season you said me: "Twins are going to trade Garver, Donaldson, Rortvedt, and Petty and get back Gray, Sanchez, Urshela, and a prospect and also sign Story, Pineda, Bundy, and a RH reliever" I probably would have thought, "That's not bad? I think I like this team, if the young guys contribute!" So this deal is all about the context. If we don't end up spending the money...then Falvey and Levine are going to get bashed a lot and they'll deserve it. (and if they do, then some people will need to make some apologies)

Rortvedt probably doesn't move the needle much. He's a solid defensive catcher, MLB-quality. His first turn as a hitter in MLB was epically bad. It's only 100 PAs, so it's a small sample, but...he wasn't a very good hitter in the minors and he's not an elite defender, just a good one, so if he's a total zero on offense, then he's a replacement level player. And I say this as someone who likes Rortvedt and was high on him as a prospect. The best part about Rortvedt for us as things stands was he was a lefty who you might hope could protect Jeffers against the best righty pitchers...but he might not even be able to do that?

Yeah, I don't understand what the plan is here. Urshela might be a bounceback candidate, but he also was never good until 2019, so 1 good season plus the short covid year isn't a lot to base it on. Sanchez was bad last year and worse in the short covid year. (He's also a butcher behind the plate) If they're clearing salary to get a better SS (Story? I'm not even going to pretend with in on Correa) then I can get this. But right now, it's a mess. Of course, considering how much has changed for this team in like a day, things could change a lot more in a few more days? I liked Rortvedt, but I'm not sure he's going to hit enough to be anything other than a backup intended to only get 20-30 games a season.

I'm ok with Miranda competing with Urshela for the job, but...WTF is going on at SS? (and we still need another starting pitcher)

If it is, then I'm in. Otherwise, I don't know what's going on. If this is all salary savings, then the FO will deserve all the grief it will get. But I'll try to reserve judgment until we're done?

Reds fans aren't happy. They're seeing a decent team get dismantled in the name of payroll and feeling like they're heading into another long rebuild. I had a Reds fan text me this morning begging for good news about Petty and was furious when I told him he wouldn't be in the majors until 2024 at the earliest (and has a high ceiling/high risk profile). So far the collective response to this deal from the Reds fans has been "Sell the team, Bob!"

As things stand, it's more likely to look like: 1B: Sano, 2B: Polanco, 3B: Donaldson, SS: Kiner-Felefa, C : Jeffers, RF: Kepler, CF: Buxton, LF: Kirilloff, DH: Arraez Basically, you've got 1 guy who can't really hit in Kiner-Falefa (But puts the ball in play enough to not be a free out), and 1 guy who the jury is still out on in Jeffers. Kepler is the next worst hitter, and he has 25 HR power. Then it's Arraez, who could contend for a batting title if a) he gets enough ABs and b) if his knees don't ruin him. Kirilloff showed me enough that if he's healthy he's going to be really dangerous. Sano is capable of carrying the team for weeks (and having bad slumps) but even with his messy year, he still had a 112 OPS+. Polanco, Buxton, and Donaldson are terrific. The lineup can contend. It's why a lot of us didn't want them to punt on the season. They still need one more starter...but if we can land Pineda, I feel pretty good about the rotation: Gray, Pineda, Ober, Ryan, Bundy with Dobnak, Duran, and Winder as the next men up and Balazovic, Sands, Canterino, and Woods-Richardson coming in behind them (I'm not a believer in Strotman, but maybe I'll be wrong). Maeda might be back before the end of the season. They'll need to be healthier than last season (although Donaldson did fine once the season got going) and they'll need for every single free agent/trade decision to not crap out this time...but the odds are better.

Assumes facts not in evidence. If this were a true statement, we would not have signed Josh Donaldson (or Nelson Cruz for that matter). Coming off of a 101 win season, the Twins could have easily been seen as a competitive team without spending $22M on Donaldson. The "Pohlads are cheap" arguments are boring. Are we bottom 5 in spending? How has it been since we were? I think this team's business model and market revenue can support a higher payroll than we have, but we're not Pitt, Balt, Miami, or Cle and haven't been for some time.

I agree with this analysis. Petty is a fine prospect with a high ceiling, but has a fair amount of risk, and zero chance of debuting with the team before 2024 and more likely 2025. Gray is a good pitcher on a good contract who can come in immediately and be a strong rotation pitcher and the option for 2023 is a reasonable one for a quality starter. Adding the relief prospect is a nice bonus. I think the Reds might have done better for Gray and are taking a big gamble on Petty. It's easier to make that gamble as a late first round draft pick; in this case they've given up a known quantity with significant value for a really big swing. From the Twins side, I like the fact that we gave up an A-ball pitcher with higher risk for a quality MLB pitcher instead of having to give up 1 (or 2) of our better pitching prospects that are closer to the majors (Winder, Canterino, Sands, Woods-Richardson, Duran, or Balazovic)

They have Gray under contract for 2022 and a team option at $12M for 2023. It's not one year of Gray, It's 1 + 1 if they want to keep him (and at $12M it's hard to see them declining the option unless he totally goes to crap)

Disagree. The lineup is good enough to compete right now, so with a competent pitching staff, they're in the mix, especially with expanded playoffs. This isn't pro basketball where being in the middle class means you're almost never really a competitor for the title; the differences between the teams in the playoffs get a lot smaller (Twins recent record not withstanding) so if you have a chance to compete, I think you should always go for it. tearing it down and hoping for a new wave of prospects is no guarantee of future success. Gray is a big step to putting them team into the mix for the playoffs in 2022 and they only gave up a guy who is several years away with a big risk factor. Plus, Gray has an option for next season too: he doesn't have to be a 1 year rental. The level of overreaction to everything going wrong last season with Twins fans is getting ridiculous. This front office has made the playoffs 3 times in 5 years; why exactly is it that they're totally incompetent/disaster/garbage? Because they didn't come out firing early in free agency? They're still making moves, and if they can get Pineda back, I like this team's odds to compete. This isn't a desperation move at all. A desperation move would have been dropping two of our top pitching prospects for 1 year of Chris Baskitt.

Ober & Ryan aren't quality? Guess we should never bother developing prospects. and the bullpen needs maybe 1-2 guys, not 3-4. Rogers, Alcala, Duffey, and Thielbar are quality by any reasonable standard and Cotton & Garza Jr are decent veteran options to start a season. Add 1 RHP option and let guys compete for the last spot and you're there. But this is about Gray, who is a great fit for the Twins with a very affordable option for next season if he continues to pitch well.

Twins clearly think he's capable/ready to have a bounceback year, and at the very least hold down the fort until some of the younger guys are ready. (Or maybe he's a "get by" kind of guy until Maeda is ready to be back and the option is just hedging their bets in case he really jumps back into form?) Gray is a good fit for this team, though. He's used to pitching at the front of a rotation and you have to like how his K's have sat for the last three years. The only question I have about him is how deep in games he can still get and whether we're at risk of overtaxing our bullpen. But he's certainly a quality pitcher who improves the rotation greatly. Hope we hear about adding back Big Mike next!

Very interesting. While I liked Petty as a prospect, he was 3 years away, minimum...and high school pitchers have a rough track record. Gray should be a big help right now and is under contract for a good option next season as well if he performs. Add Pineda back and I suddenly feel a lot better about our rotation. Gray is a nice pitcher, and I think this move makes a lot of sense for the team. Always a shame to give up a high upside player like Petty, but you have to give to get and I'm much happier dealing away an 18 year-old A-ball prospect than some of the other deals that have been discussed.

Twins staff has some work to do here: he's got to find a secondary pitch that works for him consistently, but there's talent here, so if he can lock in to at least one of them, then he should advance quickly. I wonder if the Twins like his split-change or his slider better at this point? Curious to see if they have him focus on one or the other this season or if they try to get refinement on them both.

It's an interesting deal. It's really easy to find things to like and hate about it, depending on where you stand on the current ability and potential upside of the primary players involved in it. Both teams were trading from positions of relative strength at the major league level, but still cost themselves depth and talent. Garver: is he a young 31, a catcher without too many miles on him, that will be able to pound fastballs well into his 30's while still holding up for 80-100 games behind the dish while getting 20-40 more games at 1B and DH...or is he player heading into his decline phase as a player, where the injuries are going to pile up every year and he will struggle to stay on the field at all? Anyone who says they know for sure is really just guessing. Kiner-Falefa: is he a slick-fielding SS who might still have a little additional hitting and power to unlock going into his age 27 season who can easily bridge the gap until Royce Lewis is ready to take over, or even hold on to the job for a while if he's not...or is he a no-hit utility guy whose numbers last season were a bit fluky and might be stretched a little at SS? Where you stand on those positions probably defines whether you like this deal for the Twins or not. I'm a bit betwixt and between: I don't think Garver is cooked, so losing his offense at catcher is a blow, because there are so few catchers that can hit like that when right. But it's fair to ask whether he can stay on the field: over the past three seasons, Garver has actually played fewer games than Byron Buxton. So he might be a part-time player? I'm also of the belief that Kiner-Falefa's defense at SS is quality and last season's numbers were a fluke, so he's certainly a good fit. He might be what we thought we were going to get from Simmons last year: very good defense and enough singles to not be a drag on the lineup. I don't expect him to suddenly start knocking balls out of the yard, but he's unlikely to get worse at the dish right now, so if he's putting up an OPS in the .675 range while playing quality defense, then we've got a starting SS again, and with his flexibility he could easily drop into a utility role if Royce is ready in 2023 and give them plus defense off the bench at multiple positions who could comfortably step in for an extended period. I think it's a decent balancing of the roster. In comparison to last year, the Twins look to be better...because Simmons was epically bad at the plate and Garver was hurt, and Kiner-Falefa was quality and healthy. Projecting for this season it's more likely a bit of a push: Garver's better, but will almost certainly play less (whether for injury or rest) than Kiner-Falefa, so their total value might end up being pretty similar? Because of positional need, I think this is a pretty good move for the Twins...but then again, I'm also a fan of Jeffers, whom I think will step in and perform well.

This is an interesting set of picks. No busts in here, really; Parmelee is the worst of the bunch and still made the majors and considering they took him 20th it's not exactly a terrible result: 11 of the 44 1st round picks in 2006 (including supplemental picks) didn't make the majors at all and another 15 accumulated a career bWAR of 1.0 or less (including Parmelee at 0.0). He's the reminder not to take September stats too seriously; I got super-excited about him when he came up and crushed it and should have known better. Hicks is the one that should make Twins fans a little crazy: we gave up on him too soon/mismanaged his development in MLB and he's played well in NY. He's also been injured as heck: over the last three seasons he's played less than Byron Buxton. But the pick was sound for the Twins: we just didn't realize the value. You had a HoF player in Posey up at the top, two pitchers that developed in Cole & Lynn at the bottom, a couple of guys (Lawrie, Miley) that have been a bit better than Hicks (Hosmer has more bWAR, but he's really just been healthier than Hicks) and then there's Hicks and a handful of other guys that are all sitting around 12 bWAR. Passing on Trout would sting more if we'd drafted a bust: we didn't. Gibson has been as good as any other player taken in the first round after him NOT named Mike Trout. (YMMV on whether Paxton is better than Gibson, but of the remaining 27 first round picks, the best guys are Trout (duh) then Gibson/Paxton and no one else is close). I think what we see in this set of 1st round picks is no big errors...but no big wins either. None of these players became a star for the Twins and when you go 5 years without drafting a star player with your first round pick you really need to find and develop guys in later rounds and those odds can get a little rough. And it's much worse when some of those first round picks hit their peaks with other teams.

Latest rumor is that Trevor Story might sign a 1 year deal to prove his shoulder is healthy. If true, we should jump on that so freakin' hard. I mean, I'd sign him to a long-term deal, but if the team is convinced that Royce will be ready in 2023 and they just need another bridge guy... Be interesting to see what they do on pitching. I'd bet money on Pineda coming back, but we need someone with a bit higher upside. Rodon or a trade?

Biggest miss has to be Tyler Jay, I think. As soon as he got to AA hitters, he just couldn't compete any longer and was far too hittable (even when he got moved back to the 'pen). The great experiment totally flopped. I had in my head that he'd been injured a lot, but looking at his stats, that's not really true. he just wasn't very good. major bust. Stewart was a miss to be sure, but at least made it to the majors with 2 clubs and had some minor league success. but he never consistently got enough Ks, struggled with control, and didn't become the big flamethrower that we all initially thought he would be. I think he's the worst-case scenario people see when looking at Chase Petty, but Petty was drafted so much lower that the risk on a high school pitcher is significantly mitigated. the Levi michael pick looks a little rough too, but again: 30th pick, not 6th. didn't hit well enough to make up for not being elite defensively, probably got close to getting a cup of coffee in 2018-2019, but in the end just wasn't an MLB player. he's a miss, but not really a bust.

It will be really interesting to see what the development staff does with his swing this season to try and put him back on a power production path. (that was some unfortunate alliteration) I'm still very high on Martin. His eye at the plate is excellent, his ability to make contact in the zone is elite and he basically lives on base. Even as a singles/doubles guy he's got a lot of value, but i think he can develop into someone who can still hit for a high average, draw plenty of walks (and get tagged by pitches) while rolling up plenty of extra-base hits. I think they're right to focus him on the infield right now to see where he might fit best. he's already in a position where he can probably be a plus defender in the OF corners and at minimum be a solid CF, so no reason to spend time there for now. (while he'll have more value if he can stick in the INF...part of me would love to see what would happen with him in LF, Buxton in CF, and Kepler in RF. Good lord, those three would chase down a TON of balls!) Wouldn't be surprised to see him get some time with the big club this season, and I think he's a full-time player (whether at some position or as something of a super-utility guy) in 2023.

The first part of this list did have that disclaimer. This is "best twins prospects since 1990", which is interesting in and of itself. It's interesting to see where the boom & bust is with lists like this. Royce is the one where it's particularly interesting to see where he lands: he was super-hyped early and fallen off as injuries (and the pandemic and now the lockout) have limited his time on the field, so it'll be interesting to see where he "lands" compared to the others in this top 5. Liriano was a comet who lost his top end ability due to injury, but still had a long career in the majors. Sano is still playing and and has had some good years (and when he's hot he looks as good as any slugger in baseball. and when he's off, he looks like a poor man's rob deer). Buxton has shown all the ability in the world when healthy, but can't stay healthy, and Mauer had a HoF career. I think the prospect lists have gotten better at being able to project future MLB success, but aren't any kind of guarantee of stardom. If you reach the top 5 on the BA prospect list, the odds of you having a long MLB career are increasingly good. But they can't predict injury.

It's not really a comparable situation, though. It's really hard to compare the labor-management conflict between the owners and the players to a regular corporate setting: these things don't just scale evenly, the financial model for the teams isn't about profit/loss the same way it is for most companies, etc. Corporations will have what they call "key employees" that need to stay as part of a sale, get non-compete clauses, etc. In this case, we'd be talking about hundreds of "key employees" not a handful, you know? You bring up why only fans in a big market would support a significant increase in the CBT; in reality, why should they care about it there either? There's nothing that stops teams from breaking the thresholds, so why shouldn't the fans there just be demanding that ownership pay it to increase payroll and keep signing the best players? From a player perspective, there's not a lot of concern that the best free agents aren't being properly compensated; they are actually paying attention to the fact that the "middle class" of players is shrinking, and getting less and less job security, because front offices are smarter now about assessing the markets and the perceived value of players. Why pay a guy $8M in arbitration if you can sign functionally the same player to a 1 year deal in FA for $5M? They're depressing salaries in that group. teams that are on a 3-year rebuild don't even sign those guys any longer in their mind, dropping salaries further.

Same. It's tough for that last spot. Mauer's a HoFer who played his whole career for the hometown team, so I think he gets the vote, but I really want to find a way to chisel Johan in there. it feels a little strange to only have 1 guy from the 87 & 91 title winners, but the next best choice is really Hrbek, who while a bit underrated nationally and lovable as he is, just isn't really in the same class as the others. I think Mauer is the 4th, but Johan is dang close for me because he was so amazing as a Twin.