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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I've been a huge fan of Greinke for a long time, but everything about him right now suggests that he's at the end of the line. Will he get crushed and be an embarrassment out there? Eh, probably not, because he's such a smart pitcher that he'll still be able to get over more times than he should...but hoo boy. There's just not anything in his numbers (and age is a number too) that suggests to me he's going to find any kind of resurgence or even hold with last year's pace. There's real risk that Greinke is JA Happ, Part 2. The upside is the hope that he can grind out 150 innings at a 4.50 ERA. Not sure I'm excited about that? Now, considering how short we are in starters...maybe 1 year of Greinke isn't so bad while the young guys find their footing. The odds are very good that Greinke will at least start the season healthy and ready, and a short spring training probably won't hurt him as much as some? But this ain't Greinke from 5 years ago and we need to understand that.
  2. jmlease1
    I think this is pretty spot on. the utter youth on the international signings is going to keep most of them out of the rankings until they've been in the system for a couple of years, because there's so little to evaluate them on and you expect even their tools to be behind the older players coming from stateside. a 16-17 year old kid is going to have to be awfully special to crack a list like this. I don't think it's any kind of indictment of the organization, which has been one of the more engaged ones in the international market (investing in central america, paying attention to places like australia, etc)
  3. jmlease1
    Which is also why Josh Donaldson isn't on this list, even though he might still be a very good hitter and effective player in 2022; between his age, injury history, and salary he probably has negative value as a trade asset and it's difficult to plan on him being a significant contributor in 2023 (even though again...he might be). I'm a big Austin Martin guy: I think the power will come, but his control of the strike zone and ability to get hits is going to play regardless. I keeping thinking about him playing in LF with Buxton in CF and every fly ball pitcher in MLB going "yeah, I wanna play there".
  4. jmlease1
    Joe Ryan is already in rotation and looks like a real pitcher. we got him for half a season of a 40-year old DH in a lost season, and added Drew Strotman as well, whose floor looks like "bullpen weapon" and still might make it as a starter. Hell, we even saved money on the deal. Even if both pitchers flame out, it was a smart deal...and Ryan sure doesn't look like a guy who is going to flame out. Buxton put up 4.5 bWAR in 61 games last year. pro-rated to 150 games, that's an 11 bWAR season! That's Wllie freakin' Mays. Of course he's a generational talent. He is a spectacularly talented player who can do things on the field only a handful a players in all of baseball can do. Yes, he's missed a lot of time and one of the most important abilities is availability...but this FO has managed to put together a contract that keeps the most exciting player I've ever seen in a Twins uniform here while protecting the organization if he's not healthy. He's got the same kind of talent that Joe Mauer had before the concussions. You can reasonably talk about him in the same sentence as Mike Trout, who has put up 7 or 8 MVP-caliber seasons in 10 years. he is truly great...and I hope he annihilates the league next year and the twins have to pay him every possible bonus.
  5. jmlease1
    I thought about this one a lot, and for me it came to signing Pineda cost us nothing but cash and Maeda we had to give up a legitimate prospect who would have been a solid bullpen piece. I would still do the Maeda deal 100 out of 100, but signing Pineda was a clever move that required some extra creativity but cost the team less, so in terms of front-office moves I credit it a bit higher. The Odorizzi deal certainly could qualify, as we did very well on that one: Odo was ok the first season in MN, very good the second year, before injuries wrecked his walk year...and we got back the prospect we dealt for free (who has gotten back on track with the team to the point that he's a reasonable SS option in the organization again). Can't ask for much better in a trade, really.
  6. jmlease1
    I think the moves are correct, but I'd put both of the Cruz moves above the Pineda signing.
  7. jmlease1
    I probably would have done the order differently...and I admit I really have trouble knowing exactly how to rank Joe Ryan who is rookie-eligible, but also sort of graduated. So, I'll leave Ryan where he is? the other 4 guys (all of whom I really like), I probably go Balazovic, Winder, Canterino, Woods-Richardson...and then immediately feel bad for not ranking woods-richardson high enough. I think W-R got messed up by the Olympics and not pitching in japan and having all that time off, so I don't take his 2021 all that seriously as an indicator of his real ability. I think he's a terrific pitcher and it's amazing to me that some people are treating him almost as a throw-in with Martin in the Berrios deal. It's a nice top five and stronger than anything we've had in some time. I worry about the elbow and shoulder injuries and I worry that the lockout may impact development on guys that need normal years. these guys got skipped a year of competitive baseball in 2020, had a still semi-goofy COVID year, and now have the lockout following all of that. UGH.
  8. jmlease1
    I'm a big fan of Celestino and I think he could be the ideal 4th OF for the Twins, possibly even this season. RH bat is great with guys like Kirilloff, Kepler, and Larnach around and his ability to play any OF spot could be really useful, especially with Buxton's injury history. Really liked how well he played in AAA after getting thrown into the deep end of the pool in MLB well before he was ready. Says some things about his mental toughness, I think. I do believe in his defense, I just think he was overthinking it when he got called up so early. He's a nice player, I'm excited to see what he can do. Sabato is the guy I'm less excited about. While I appreciate his understanding of the strike zone and ability and willingness to take a walk, I'm still very concerned about his ability to make contact. When he does it goes a long damn way, but a college bat with his eye should have been able to do better in low-A, even if it is the FSL. I hope the Cedar Rapids stint is more representative of his ability, but that wasn't a terribly long stretch and he could have just been on a hot stretch. We'll see. I'll be interested to see where he starts the season: Cedar Rapids or Wichita? As we've seen with Rooker, you have to make contact for that power to play and Sabato has little positional flexibility to improve his standing. I can see why someone would pick him over Wallner right now (the walks and power projection are appealing) but I'm not one of them. They look like similar hitters right now and Wallner can at least play in the OF (might not cover a ton of ground, but he's got a fine arm out there) and Sabato looks like a DH who can function at 1B. Maybe the Cedar Rapids Sabato is who he really is (I hope so), but I just have trouble minimizing how brutal he was in Ft. Myers. Julien is really intriguing. I'm not worried about where he'll play if he can keep raking like this; you find a position for a guy if he gets on base and smacks the ball around like this. The K's are worrisome, though. You can get away with it in A-ball when pitchers will give you free ones because they simply can't put the ball in the zone consistently, but the more you advance the less it works. You have to be able to make contact when the ball is in the zone. If Julien can get his K rate down in the 20-25% range, he's going to be a player to watch who will rise quickly. If he can't, I think that BA is going to plummet.
  9. jmlease1
    I'm not sure I'd qualify Kirilloff or Winder as "sleepers"; Kirilloff is a top prospect who hit well in his rookie campaign before getting injured. Expectations are high for him. Winder was the Twins representative in the Futures Game and is being touted as a top pitching prospect who is ready to step into the rotation if healthy. I think the expectations are too high for what these guys can do to qualify them as sleepers, really. Moran on the other hand...I'm a big fan and I do think people are sleeping on him. He's still got some things to work on in terms of his command, but that changeup is filthy and will make him effective against righties and lefties and he's going to be a weapon early, IMHO. I kinda think people are sleeping on Duffy at this point: there seems to be this growing consensus that he's tailing off as a player and won't be counted on for the back end of the bullpen any longer, that his velocity is down, blah blah blah. I think he's primed for the bounceback season and while I don't expect him to have some insane strand rate again, I do think he could be a critical set-up man again and have a terrific season.
  10. jmlease1
    I think that's fair. I tend to weight pro performance a bit more in trying to project than maybe some, partly because there's so many things that can go wrong with young pitchers. So when I see a guy like Sands or Varland succeeding at every level they're be asked to pitch at, I probably rate them a little higher than guys who basically have thrown few or no professional innings, even if they're a bit older. Some of this also may shake out a bit better when we're not coming off the first year back in minor league ball too; do guys like them get penalized (whether knowingly or not) because they missed a development year, whereas Petty does not? There's still a bit of a glut in prospect-land right now, IMHO where it's more challenging to really place everyone on the development path because of that missing year. How many guys got injured because they didn't have competitive baseball in 2020? How many needed extra time to adjust to being back in games? I think you could make a case for grouping guys from 6-15 into two pools: 1) young guys with big tools, little pro experience, and high ceilings, 2) older guys with possibly lesser tools but more pro performance (who missed a development year). Not easy to know which ones out of either pool will keep rising up. Except Duran, who is in the high minors and just needs health or he's going to end up in the bullpen. I do feel good that we're talking about guys like Petty, Sands, Hajjar, Varland, and Duran and we haven't even hit the top 5 yet! There's a lot of talent in the pitching pipeline and it could be very exciting if the team is successful in developing a decent percentage of it.
  11. jmlease1
    Cleveland and the Twin Cities are pretty comparable markets. The Cleveland market area (which includes Canton and Akron) has about 3.6M people; the Twin Cities market area is about 3.7M. Both are mid-sized markets. The advantage the Twins have is MN has no other teams and the closest other franchises are KC/MKE/Chicago. Cleveland has to compete with Cincinnati in their own state. But there are a lot more people in OH to pull from as well...
  12. jmlease1
    This is where I think philosophy really comes into play and the challenge of performance vs projection makes it an interesting debate on the rankings. I tend to value professional experience over projection on prospect rankings and would probably push guys like Raya and Povich further down the rankings in favor of Sands/Varland from the last set. I just feel better about a guy that has shown the ability to dominate A-ball over someone who doesn't have any professional innings in competitive baseball (or functionally doesn't). With pitching being the hardest thing to project (my opinion), the scholarship bonus for draft position should be reduced a little, and we shouldn't always be seduced by the power of the new. With the brand new guys, we can project anything we want upon them and presume that they will be able to perform. Hajjar was a good pick with a nice college track record, so I'm fine with him in this group. I think there's an error on Chase Petty's stats; he pitched in 2 games for the Twins minor league system and started 1. He's definitely getting a scholarship bonus based on his draft position...which is ok, but I discount that more and more the further you get from the 1st round. Duran has all the tools and pitches to be a front-line starter...we'll see if he can pair that up with the health you need. I'm hoping last season was an aberration born of not having had a minor league season in 2020 and that he'll be able to get it back together. My fear is that the shenanigans going on with the CBA will again put his development back and it will mess up his season. But the upside is terrific.
  13. jmlease1
    I can't decide if Garver ranks too high for me here or not; he's getting older and has injuries, and he's only got two more years of team control left...but at the same time there's such a dearth of MLB catchers who can also hit that someone who can mash like Garver still has significant value, either on the field or in trade. Tough one to rate for me. But it also explains why Jeffers lands this high on the list too: catchers that give you anything on offense are so hard to find that a guy with an OPS+ of 83 last year still added positive value beyond their defense. I'm really excited about Ober and Ryan and look forward to watching their continued development.
  14. jmlease1
    I think the only way Smeltzer makes it back on the roster is if there's a rash of injuries in the bullpen with at least one serious enough to open a slot on the 40-man. He's just a little too hittable to survive long stints, I think. Maybe the new slider will give him new life as a bullpen option, but he's behind about 8-10 guys for next man up in the rotation.
  15. jmlease1
    To be fair to Sabato, he has shown very good strike zone recognition, which is a really good skill to have. The question on him after his horrid stretch in low A is will he make enough contact; in high A's small sample size he looked like a serious hitter. But I think the Rooker comp isn't unfair until he shows he can make enough consistent contact on pitches in the zone to really make that prodigious power play
  16. jmlease1
    I think this might be the best potential "Miranda Breakout" idea: talented player who is liked within the system, but hasn't really put it together yet and isn't all that high on people's prospect rankings now. Javier has all the tools but hasn't really put it together. He could be exactly the kind of guy who seizes the opportunity and have it all click. I think Martin is going to have an excellent season (I'm very high on him and not terribly worried about his power production at this point) but his path doesn't feel like miranda's. Miranda had a nice rookie ball season and then meandered a bit in A ball, with middling performances that didn't stand out much for a couple of years, then exploded, destroying everything in his path in AA & AAA. Martin's already had a much better season in AA than Miranda had ever done prior to his breakout, and it was his first year of pro ball. Sabato is a possibility, but I'm not as high on him. He's a K machine and I have real concerns about his ability to make consistent contact. We'll see. It shouldn't have taken him so long to start beating up on A-ball pitchers as a college bat coming out of the ACC, so his time in Ft. Myers was a red flag for me. He did much, much better when he got to Cedar Rapids, but that's a small sample.
  17. jmlease1
    I think Celestino will be the answer as Buxton insurance. He may not be ready for the 4th OF role out of spring training (but I'd bet he'll compete for it), but I do think he's much more ready to step in if Buxton gets hurt in say late May/early June and we need someone to play CF every day. Kepler can fill in occasionally right now if Buxton needs a day off, if Celestino doesn't head north with the big club. I also think that Martin might be ready as early as midseason to step in if there's a run of injuries again. Gordon is a decent enough stop-gap and if he makes the team as a utility guy, maybe he's the one who gives Buxton a break in the OF every now and then. (I don't see him as hitting enough to be an every day player...but I'm rooting for the dude to prove me wrong.) All of this is by way of saying: not really interested in spending any real money on a backup to one of the best players in baseball, and definitely not interested in burning any prospect capital to bring in a backup, especially with the young options we have in the system. The depth chart (for everyday CFs) probably looks like: Buxton, Celestino, Martin with Gordon & Kepler as short-term fill-in options. That's not bad and significantly better than where we were last season, as Celestino was just getting started in AA, Martin wasn't with the franchise, and Gordon had never played an inning in CF, leaving us basically with Cave & Kepler as backup option. (yes, some of this was our own doing, as we let Wade go to keep Cave and didn't protect Baddoo...but that's the way it goes.)
  18. jmlease1
    There are things to like about all of these hitters, but all of them have serious questions too. (pitchers still seem to be charting ahead of hitters to me; I like the pitcher set from 11-15 better than the hitters) Javier has talent, but we're getting to a point where the production has to catch back up. His cup of coffee at 17 was great, his first real season in MiLB was excellent, and since then...he's had a seat on the struggle bus. Brutal year coming off injury (and a missed development year) in low A, missed another development year due to COVID, and then was just decent in high A. He's not making anywhere near enough contact. I think he's this high based on scholarship, not production. I'm rooting for him to have the breakthrough, but this is basically a make-or-break year for him to stay any kind of prospect as opposed to being minor league depth. Cavaco has some similar issues: tools are there, production is not. He's got the advantage of being younger, but for a high draft pick, you would hope to see better signs that he can excel. The missed minor league season in 2020 hurt him as much as any player in the system to be sure, but he needs to start showing what that athletic ability can translate to. I expect him to repeat at Ft. Myers, frankly and if he can't beat up on some of these pitchers he's going to start hearing "bust" associated with his name. Urbina is really hard for the layman to evaluate. He's going to repeat a level as well, and if he can't hit this time around, I'm not sure I care how many walks he takes. It's great to have a good eye at the plate, but at this level you also have to be able to make contact in the zone, and Urbina is showing a deficit on that metric. Because as soon as you advance to higher levels of competition you're not going to get the free passes because guys can actually get it in the zone more consistently. Encarnacion-Strand and Wallner are the better options here so far. I'll want to watch Christian E-C's K's, but he has a chance to advance quickly if he continues to smack the ball. Small sample size, but he did what he was supposed to do and I think you have to credit that. I tend to rate production over tools. Wallner has a big K issue to watch, but the power is for real and he's performed everywhere. Did great at the AFL, which hopefully kick-starts his season. I do think he's got to make more contact in order for him to stick as he rises, but he'll be interesting to watch in AA.
  19. jmlease1
    A ton of talent in this set and we're not even in the top ten yet? (this also may be a sign that I'm going to disagree with some of Seth's top 10, lol) Sands is a guy I really like, and while I expect him to be in AAA to start the year, he's definitely someone in the mix to make his debut in 2022. While I'm not excited about how the MLB rotation is shaping up right now, I am enthusiastic about the fact that if/when the Twins need to go deeper to get starts from within the organization they're going to be looking at someone like Sands, rather than Charlie Barnes. There's no question that the missing 2020 minor league season set some of these guys back in their development and the adjustment in returning to game play may have been one of the reasons we saw so many pitching injuries in 2021. So here's hoping for good health by all of these guys! Strotman...well, we'll see. He's got talent, but he looked pretty rough last year. He's got to find the command or he's going to be in the bullpen pretty quickly. Can't wait to see Varland at AA to see how he does against better and older competition. He had a terrific year and deserved to get in the prospect conversation, but if you can't dominate low-A at age 22, then you're probably not going to be a prospect. The fact that Varland continued to pitch so well upon promotion really speaks well of him and suggests that the mechanical adjustments they've made with him give him the stuff he needs to compete. He's a great reminder to keep an eye on your own backyard and not ignore a player just because he went to a D-II school. Hope they continue to scout the Northern Sun!
  20. jmlease1
    I think they keep him in 2022 and they'll make a decision on whether to pick up the $14M option after the season. He'll probably play a fair amount at 1B but get more ABs at DH depending on the health and progression of some of the other young players. (If Larnach is hitting his way into the lineup, I could see them moving Kirilloff to 1B and Sano to DH) But unless someone like Kepler, Donaldson, or Arraez is dealt, then the Twins will need Sano in the field at least part of the time. He's an interesting player because when he's squaring up on fastballs he's an incredibly dangerous hitter. When he's struggling to catch up to fastballs, then he's also chasing more off-speed pitches out of the zone (usually with two strikes). He's got great patience and good understanding of the strike zone, but needs to find that good balance between aggressiveness and patience so he's swinging at his pitches (this was part of his key to success in the second half). The issue the Twins should be thinking about the most with Sano is how to shorten up the time he spends in a slump. He gets into these runs where his timing is just off and he can catch up to fastballs up in the zone, can't square up on off-speed pitches and is just a mess for long periods. When he gets that timing back, he starts mashing again. If they can find some tricks to get that timing back on track faster...he'll have a great year. His biggest problem on D is decision-making: he's too aggressive in going after balls and pulls himself out of position chasing things he realistically can't get to, and needs to just simplify it a little more. He's got the hands to do it and he's plenty athletic (and makes a nice big target out there to throw to). I think there's opportunity to improve, but the expectations have to be realistic. He's not going to be Mauer (who should have one at least one Gold Glove over there) or Mienkiewicz (who was elite) but he can be good enough, especially considering his bat. The most likely scenario is he has another good, but not great season, that probably falls somewhere between 2021's overall effort and his 2019 campaign. Which would be worth what we'll pay him, but probably not worth picking up the $14M option. And then he'll probably leave, because when a team doesn't pick up an option or offer arbitration pride will get in the way even if the team wants to bring them back and they'll take less to "go somewhere they're wanted" rather than sign for less than they made from their old team. Such is the business of baseball. (I don't think there's anyone on the club that things he's got an attitude problem or anything like that. That's the BS that comes from fans who hate the Ks and can only remember the slumps...or Reusse.)
  21. jmlease1
    These all seem pretty reasonable to me. If someone really insisted on putting Arraez ahead of Larnach I probably wouldn't get too upset about it, but these all seem pretty close. I'm a fan of Larnach and it can take some adjusting when you get to the big leagues especially for more of a power hitter, and it wouldn't surprise me if once Larnach got off track he was just kind of spinning and really needed a reset. (I don't think he was fully healthy towards the end of the season either) The talent is there. Arraez is more accomplished and has proven his ability to control the strike zone and get on base, but he really isn't much of a defensive player and doesn't hit without enough power to be very comfortable as a full-time DH. (that said, I think the Twins have enough power elsewhere that I wouldn't be opposed to him getting lots of DH time to save on those knees, but if DH is your best position you need to hit a LOT to make up for adding no value anywhere else) Miranda looks like the heir apparent to Donaldson at 3B to me. He's not as strong defensively, but we've seen that guys can really improve at 3B at the MLB level (Koskie was shaky early on and quickly became an asset and Plouffe was basically a butcher out there for a while but became more than adequate) and I love his hit tool. Very excited to see what he can do. Both pitchers need innings, but they're very talented. I'd hate for Duran to end up in the bullpen any time soon. Can't wait to see Balazovic. But I'd be happier if they were battling to be the first call up for injury/ineffectiveness or so outstanding at spring training that you can't keep them out of the rotation, as opposed to them contending for the 4th spot...both probably need some polishing and innings at AAA.
  22. jmlease1
    I too am high on Celestino. He wasn't ready for MLB, and everyone in the organization knew it, but injuries forced him up early. Despite having a rotten debut, he bounced back and played well when he reached AAA...which was where he probably should have been at that point in the season anyway. The defense needs some adjusting, but he has the tools to be a very solid CF and can play all 3 OF positions. I think he'll compete for the 4th OF spot in training camp this year (assuming there is a season) and could be a really nice fit.
  23. jmlease1
    I like the upside on Severino, but the rest don't have a lot of the excitement factor to me. It's good to have catcher depth and guys in the organization that you can go to, but I'm not sure any of these look like they have a breakout potential to me. I hope I'm wrong. Pitching side of the equation looking a little stronger and deeper at this point in the lists. That said...we're still pretty far down the prospect lists.
  24. jmlease1
    I'm a big fan of Moran. He's going to walk more batters than some people will be comfortable with, but that change-up is a real weapon and means that he's not going to be just a lefty specialist. I think he's MLB ready right now, but whether or not he starts the season in the Twins bullpen will depend on whether they sign more arms, I think. Regardless of where he starts, I'd wager money on him being in the bullpen at the end of the season. Vallimont is an interesting case. Any pitcher that can hunt Ks like he does is worth watching, but he may not be able to consistently command his pitches well enough to make it as a starter. But for a K-hunter like him, the bullpen is a fine backup plan. He would have 100% been grabbed if left unprotected in the Rule V because even good teams can take a flyer on a bullpen option like him for $100K and seem if they can get him on track consistently, because it's low risk. If you succeed, you've got a weapon for $100K, if you fail you either get $50K back or stash him in your system to keep trying for the rest of the season. Vallimont likely starts back at AA, and I have to wonder if this season if he still struggles as a starter if they'll make the conversion around midyear. The lack of a development year from COVID almost certainly hurt his progress.
  25. jmlease1
    Seriously. I know there are some questions about whether or not Martin can handle SS full-time in MLB, much like with Royce Lewis (and that's going to be true of most SS prospects that can hit and aren't just glove wizards) but I haven't seen a word that he can't play CF.
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