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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    The underwhelming performance by some of the Twins prospects (especially pitching) certain does harm their trade capital, but especially for guys that are still in lower levels, I'm not sure how much an injury necessarily hurts the status of some of these prospects? I'm not sure I see the twins getting starting pitching help. More likely to see 1-2 relief arms, IMHO...which I'm not opposed to. Despite some recent struggles from the rotation, I still don't think we're too badly off there, but finding some reliable relief help is a more pressing need. It's also more in budget, in terms of what we're willing/able to give up. Twins have a good amount of depth in the system to move a couple of lesser prospects for expiring relief help (possibly paired by a 40-man pending reject and some salary relief?).
  2. jmlease1
    Because SS is still probably the most important position player on a team. While there are a bunch of terrific ones in MLB right now, there still aren't enough to go around, so having one is a big asset. Even if you're set at SS, which the twins might be if Correa comes back (unlikely), or Lewis is the real deal (possible, but not a certainty), having an elite prospect at SS is a significant trade asset. And just because you think you've got SS figured out in the short term, doesn't mean that in 3 years things will have worked out as planned. Can't predict injuries, so having depth at critical positions is huge. (last season at CF is a good example of this; we had to throw a lot of guys in there out of position or before they were ready because we were a little thin behind Buxton) The other thing is, tons of guys don't stick at SS even if they were drafted there and become quality MLB players. If you're good enough/athletic enough to be drafted as a SS, then those skills often translate if you have to shift to a new position, whether it's 2B, 3B, or OF. It's a not a stupid question at all, though.
  3. jmlease1
    Don't be too hard on yourself for Valencia; he had a decent career including several very good seasons...just not in MN after that rookie campaign. He might not have become a star, but used properly he was a useful MLB player, and certainly not a bust.
  4. jmlease1
    All reasonable points. I see Miranda as being the likely full-time 3B next season, Polanco as being the full-time 2B again, and I have no idea how to even classify Arraez other than "hitter", but he does need a non-OF spot. Gordon is a useful player, but he's not going to block anyone in the future. (JMO) Lewis is looking like he really might be the SS of the future, and we need one. Steer maybe slots into the Miranda's current role for next year? Everyone else AA and below has to prove it still, but if they're really kicking butt and demanding promotion and playing time...well, either they push out someone above them or serve as assets in a trade. Considering how the filter usually works, it's a little unusual that we end up with too many starting quality guys at the same time; injuries often take care of the problem if nothing else. Middle INF usually can slide out to other positions so long as they can hit enough, and they're not hitting they're unlikely to be creating a logjam? Catcher is the one area where it's an issue and the organization needs to be careful to ensure they are drafting to support it, because I don't think you can shift too many guys down there. But otherwise, I'm still mostly on a "best player/prospect available" train. (You 100% right on Sabato, who is increasingly looking like a bust.)
  5. jmlease1
    Do we really have a glut of utility guys, though? Maybe at the MLB/AAA level, but in 2-3 years, who knows? Of course, I'm guessing the Twins think that Schobel has a higher ceiling than that. If he really hits then he could be awfully interesting. I do think a player like him (again, if he hits) has a lot of flexibility to find a slot on the team going forward. I tend to not worry as much about where a guy might slot positionally most of the time when drafting, because you never really know where someone might end up. (The exception is catcher; trying to recall the last guy that wasn't drafted as a catcher who then shifted successfully to the position in the minors, and I'm stumped.)
  6. jmlease1
    Nice for Matt Wallner to have a big HR at the Futures Game. He really does have prodigious power. Sano is abusing minor league pitching. (As he should) I think he's back with the MLB club after the all-star break and Celestino goes down. Celestino has not been hitting much lately and we can backup CF/cover Buxton's rest with Gordon and Kepler for now. Let Celestino slide back down to Saint Paul, get himself back on a good program hitting, and be ready in case of injury. It'll be interesting to see if Sano can be a dangerous power bat again or just a K-machine, but he'll slot in as a DH again I think. (I suspect Jeffers & Sanchez will give up some ABs and not get much DH run now?)
  7. jmlease1
    Seems a little harsh. I was at the game, and literally no one in the section was thinking Urshela deserved an error yesterday. He didn't come up with a superior play, but none of those were routine. Twins defense wasn't bad in this game, but they didn't have a lot of extra, gold-glove quality play when they had some opportunities. (Kepler not hanging on to a deep fly where he bounced off the wall is another example; a better read and he settles under that one I think, but it wasn't an easy play...just one that we've seen him make before) Correa was the defensive stalwart if anyone. Lovely day for a game and great to see Kaat honored. Really wish we could have turned another DP, because it's just so much fun to watch it live and have a whole bunch of people cheering "One...two!" all at the same time.
  8. jmlease1
    I think it's more than fair to have skepticism about Wallner's ultimate potential, because that K-rate is kinda scary. It's been my worry about him since he arrived: the contact he makes is terrific, but will he make enough of it to be a MLB player? Jury's still out on that one, but he keeps producing so when the average is that good, the OPS is that high, I guess we should not worry too much if he's trading weak grounders to SS for a additional K's? The other night, he went 0-5 with 4 K's, last night he bangs out a 4-4 day with a BB and a Sac Fly. CES has some similar "oh god, I wish he didn't K so much" fears from me, but my goodness, he's kicked butt since joining the franchise. The K-rate is less than Wallner's at least, and he's hitting a ton. You could write off last year's work as Small Sample Size or him being a college player coming in to low-A, but it's getting harder and harder. If they jump Wallner up, and I could see CES moving in to AA, which would be great to see. If he can keep rolling after a level-up, he might be the steal of the draft (and the Twins had a pretty good 2021 draft already i think: turned Chase Petty into Sonny Gray, Miller looks promising, Hajjar has shown impressive ability to miss bats, and Cade Povich looks intriguing as well)
  9. jmlease1
    I was fooled by Romero too. Thought for sure he was going to be a power arm out of the twins bullpen for years. Whoops! I was convinced that he just needed a little time to settle in and things would be great, that he'd shown enough as a starter that he could make the transition. Nope, nope, and nope. The others on the list i don't think I was ever that attached to. They kinda fell into the "hey, maybe this guy can turn out to be somebody!" bucket where I was rooting for them, but not necessarily all that convinced. Chris Parmelee, on the other hand...I jumped all over that hype train, thought he was going to take over for Cuddyer and we wouldn't miss a beat. but I'm grateful to Mr. Parmelee, who taught me to be skeptical of September call-ups and Small Sample Size.
  10. jmlease1
    I'd just like to note that it's ridiculous for the manager to have to come out and argue the umpire into suspending the game when the rain is coming done in sheets, fans are fleeing the stands, hitters can't grip the bat, and even on tv it's getting hard to see because it's bucketing so hard. And because they waited so long, the infield looked wrecked afterwards. I doubt it had any significant impact on the result, but good grief. bad job by the umps on that one.
  11. jmlease1
    Wallner just keeps on rolling. It's going to be fun to see if he can keep mashing at AAA, but he's definitely put himself into the conversation for a MLB role as early as next season...or a trade chip to shore up this year's squad. It's interesting to track his progress in relation to Aaron Sabato: two big power bats, one from the left and one from the right. Sabato was always a 1B/DH, but a lot of people thought Wallner might end up there too. Sabato really has struggled to make contact in pro baseball, and while that's been a concern for wallner with his many many Ks...he's still making enough contact and punishing the ball when he does. Wallner has also shown he should be able to stick in the OF for at least a few years and with his arm could be a solid contributor with enough range to be a good RF. Wallner is looking like a guy with a MLB future...and Sabato is looking like a bust. I think Wallner moves up after the Futures game (which is fine). The next question is going to be whether the team looks at him as a key part of the next wave of prospects or as a trade chit to get what they need for a title run? I have a feeling that either Wallner or Steer may be part of a deadline deal this year. One more wallner fact: his 21 HRs this season for Wichita is the most for any Twins AA affiliate since Brent Rooker in 2018. Rooker needed 130 games to get to 22 dingers. Wallner has 21 in 76 games. My goodness.
  12. jmlease1
    Runs are important. RBIs aren't all that interesting or informative as a stat.
  13. jmlease1
    He's had a really disappointing year. I know he was battling an injury early (knee?) and I'm guessing adjusting to that has thrown off his mechanics, but it's still not great. This is why you need 10 good prospects to find 5 (3?) guys to fill a rotation. Still too early to give up on him, because the talent is there, but he was someone we all thought was going to be pushing for a shot in MLB this season and right now it looks like he'll never see Target Field this year. Another fine outing for Wallner, guess being named to the Futures Game didn't get in his head! Pleased to see his success.
  14. jmlease1
    Fine choices based on the Twins system right now. Both are moving up quickly and performing well and should do fine at the game. Nice for them to both get the exposure that comes from it. (won't help them much for prospect lists most of which will ding them significantly for being 24, but that's a they problem not a we problem.)
  15. jmlease1
    No one click baits like Cody.
  16. jmlease1
    I think this zeroes in on where his problem is. Right now his BB/9 is twice his career average and he's been homer-happy the last two years. The command is what's getting him in trouble: he's not just piling up walks, he's also at a point right now where he isn't able to consistently throw a strike without grooving a pitch. So he's walking guys and running up 3-ball counts and then he drops one middle-middle (and probably taken a bit off it to make sure he can locate) and it gets blasted. That said, I do think he's salvageable, you look at his k-rate and you can see that he's someone who can get batters out. If he gets the walk rate back down, suddenly he starts looking a lot more like Jax, and less like Duffey. He needs to be in a lower leverage role for a while if possible and hopefully the coaching staff can work with him to find his command again.
  17. jmlease1
    Kirilloff sure looks like he's past his problems with the wrist. He's hitting like we hoped again, and I think he's going to be a force in the lineup for the rest of the year. (If he stays healthy. really hoping his wrist issues are in the past and he gets to have a good run of health) Kopech had been pitching pretty well for the ChiSox, so it was good to see the Twins handle him. You have to wonder if the first inning struggles impacted his effectiveness even though he wriggled out of the jam. I'm not ready to write-off the ChiSox yet; they're starting to get healthy again (Jiminez could be a difference-maker, a healthy Grandal could be a difference-maker...) and they still have a lot of pitching talent so you never know. But they're not playing well and I don't think LaRussa is going to help (having the home crowd chant "Fire Tony" can't be good). Would love to see the sweep.
  18. jmlease1
    He's done well, I think. I'm still a little worried about the K's (wish he'd be under 25% at AA), but he's also taking more walks this year and his arm makes him more of an asset in the OF than a lot of the "three true outcomes" guys. He took his opportunity in the AFL and ran with it. Do we know anything more about his shaky start to the year? I wonder if he was battling an injury or something? because he has been a different player from late-April on.
  19. jmlease1
    Why does it seem like every time Rocco makes a decision people don't like they use the "computer printouts" line or something similar? This felt like a gut level decision to me. On the one hand, Bundy struggles third time through; on the other, his pitch count was low and his breaking stuff was as good as it's been all year. But there was also some loud contact that turned into outs because the ball was hit right at someone, including some fine defensive plays (i.e., Urshela's snag of a sure hit) and the game was tight and close. With their best bullpen pieces rested, it sure looked like a decision to go for the win. the 10th inning outburst was very nice to see; the double plays in the first two innings were less great. Bundy might have gotten another inning or two if the offense had given him a 4 run lead... Luis Arraez is great. Boy is he fun to watch hit.
  20. jmlease1
    This is where you're just making stuff up because you've already decided Rocco = Bad. You have no idea what Rocco is asking for/demanding behind the scenes, and frankly the manager tossing a player under the bus to satisfy the fanbase is always a foolish move. It doesn't "inspire" anyone to do better, but it's much more likely to get people pointing fingers at each other. Rocco & the team have made changes to the bullpen (Duran & Jax both started the season in lower-leverage roles, Smith has changed from being a 1-2 batter guy to someone who gets run out for longer stints, Duffey's role has changed, etc). But more importantly, Rocco doesn't just make these changes on his own: Wes Johnson was involved in all of them, our bullpen coach who is now our pitching coach was involved in all of them. The "Blame Rocco" chants are tired. And expecting a manager not to support his player to the press in the useless post-game conference is fantasy land. Who rips his guys after a loss any longer? (Hint: it's no one.)
  21. jmlease1
    They're clearly comfortable sending Duran out for 2 innings (which is great and makes him even more of a weapon), but he's not going to be available on consecutive nights if he does. (before someone starts screaming about Rocco and analytics and Moneyball and the alignment of Saturn, just pause for a minute and realize there's literally no team in MLB that would pitch their best reliever 2 innings and then run him out again the next night in June) I think they're comfortable with Jax the same way, but I'm less certain of it. But the reality is you get 2 innings from either of them at most before they get a night off. I'm thrilled with the way Jax has developed as a reliever, and it's another bit of evidence for while you should almost always give a starter who isn't working out in that role a chance to relieve: jax has increased his K/9, reduced his BB/9 and H/9, he's keeping the ball in the park better and looks every bit the part of a late inning reliever who can handle any leverage situation. Thielbar seems to be rounding into form; he was probably a little unlucky early (as Perk mentioned on the broadcast). But we need at least one more guy right now, and figure out one more by the end of the season. Alcala would have been in there for sure and that injury really hurts (especially on top of the other ones). Joe Smith is also a guy who would have been looked at to pitch the 10th, runners on base don't bother him. Pagan & Moran have the stuff to get outs and their ability to hunt Ks makes them suitable for the role, but the wildness gets scary and inability to throw a strike with their best stuff puts them at risk to give up xbhs a little too often.
  22. jmlease1
    Cole Sands with his 8.82 ERA and revolutionary WHIP? Look, the FO has to do something to address the bullpen, or the Twins risk throwing away a season where they brought in Correa and have the horses to compete. Injuries and ineffectiveness have decimated the bullpen and they need to go get some reinforcements, because there really aren't any serious options in AAA right now. (We have 6 relievers in the IL right now. Ugh.) The timing is tough, because you're probably going to have to overpay to pry someone quality loose...but the Twins have enough prospect capital to make it happen without mortgaging the future. Bored with any comment that talks about Rocco and "spreadsheets" or that he manages like a computer etc. You sound like Joe Morgan yelling about how Billy Beane writing Moneyball ruined the game. We just don't have enough options in the bullpen we can trust right now. The options last night for the 10th were Pagan (who blew it, again), Cotton (who blew it), Duffey (who seems to have traumatized a lot of this board), or Thornburg (who hasn't had chances to blow it yet). I don't love any of those options right now. Cotton & Pagan both have the same problem: they're too wild, and when they can't hit their spots and start walking guys they'll end up throwing a "get over" pitch to get a strike and get lit up. Both have the stuff to be quality, but aren't getting it done. (Moran has similar risks, but also has options so they can bounce him up and down as he tries to get it under control) Thornburg doesn't hunt Ks, making him a less optimal choice to come in with a runner(s) on base. I'm less afraid of Duffey than most, and probably would have gone with him over Pagan (who seems to be a mess right now) but him vs Cotton might have been a coin flip. But not having better options is more and more of a problem. I'm generally good with the strategy of churning relievers until find a combination that works for you, but the injuries are making that strategy less viable. Time to pivot, time to get someone real in rather than digging off the scrap heap.
  23. jmlease1
    I don't particularly hate Nishioka, but he was a dreadful Twin, utterly hopeless at the plate and poor in the infield. I don't see much of a comp there, personally, and even if you only meant to show a casual comparison to an aspect of their swing mechanics, putting those two players in the same sentence carries a significant degree of baggage that I find unfair to Kirilloff. He wasn't just hitting mistakes when he hit .348 in A-ball, and he wasn't just hitting mistakes this season when he hit .359 in AAA (and BTW, his walk rate was just ducky in Saint Paul this year. He's hit the ball well in MLB before having to deal with his wrist injuries (which ruined the start of this season). Kirilloff isn't immune to criticism, but using Nishioka as a comp of any kind maybe says a lot more than you thought, but there's literally nothing good to say about Nishioka as an MLB player. Unfortunately.
  24. jmlease1
    That was a really rough sequence. I'm not sure I'd say jeffers was showboating exactly, but it was a mistake to watch the ball for a bit before trying to get on his horse and he paid for it. Miranda's brain lock was pretty tough as well. We're not a strong baserunning team overall (despite Buxton and his insane speed) we have some guys that consistently make good choices on the basepaths (Kepler, Arraez, & Correa generally seem to do well in their decision-making) but definitely some poor ones. And Tommy Watkins has had several memorable "wtf, dude!" moments too. Hopefully they can clean it up. The pitching was good, Winder looked pretty good out there. Duffey did well enough I thought he was going to get another inning. Moran is a pitcher I really like, but he's always going to be a little wild, so come prepared with a mantra to meditate on or else he will seriously disturb your calm at times. Other times he's going to look unhittable. Possibly in the same AB. The evening game reveals the fallacy of the closer in baseball, though: Pagan got the 8th in the early game so Duran could pitch the 9th...and then there wasn't a 9th. In the evening game, we're up 6-0 in the 9th, so no need to "waste" your closer. So now your best, most dangerous reliever hasn't pitched in a few days...and you could have used him. (This is a slight knock on Rocco, but it's also common among most teams and managers where they land in this trap) I like the offense heating up, just wish they'd distribute the runs a little more evenly, because when we score at least 4 runs we're a damn good team.
  25. jmlease1
    I think there was a missed opportunity in not bringing in Duran to pitch the 8th with the top of the lineup coming around, but I also understand the thinking of "we might need this guy to pitch the 9th and face the 3-5 spots in the order" as well. It's a tough call, and the reality is we don't have enough reliable high-leverage arms in the bullpen right now. (YMMV on whether we will have it sorted by Sept) Not having Alcala definitely hurts us here. I would say the FO is going to have to look for reinforcements in the bullpen because I don't think we're going to be able to count on Alcala this season (yes, he might be back in 2 weeks...but he also might have another set back and not be back at all). That said, I do think it's not as easy as some people think to just go out and get a guy right now. There are only a few teams that are truly out of it, but the bigger issue is the teams that are sellers don't want to sell just yet: they want competition to drive up the price of whatever salary/player they're dumping and the buyer market isn't very firm yet, especially for relievers. But before we get too lost in losing our minds over the bullpen and Pagan having another blowup, let's not forget the offense only produced 2 runs. I just don't expect a lot of wins when we only score 2 runs.
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