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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Wander Javier is an interesting case. He's stalled out a bit as a prospect and normally you'd look at him and think he'd want to move on to another organization and wouldn't be worthy of a 40-man spot. but he's experienced another organization and came back to the twins when presented with the opportunity. So while I still don't think he's a good choice to add to the 40-man...I think there's a real possibility he might be interested in staying with the twins on a minor league deal for another season since he started to get back on track this year being back in his first organization. the grass is not always greener, and he may be less enthusiastic about jumping elsewhere after struggling in Tampa.
  2. jmlease1
    I'm happy to sign Pineda at this price...and I think there's a fine chance that he'd take it. 9In fact, I could see the twins going 2 years and $15-18M on him. He is who he is at this point, but if you go in understanding that he's got a lot of value. He's going to make 20-25 starts, throw 100-150 innings, with an ERA+ that's probably going to land between 105-125. You have to expect that he's going to miss some time (and if he doesn't, that's a bonus) but that he'll be effective when healthy. he likes it here, the team likes him, and if he comes into camp in shape he should be able to hold down a rotation spot for most of the year. If we make the rebound and get back to the playoffs, I wouldn't feel bad about Pineda making a start for the twins.
  3. jmlease1
    Wallner is still as advertised: good power, lots of Ks, but so far makes enough contact and shows enough patience to be effective. Glad to see him getting ABs in the AFL; looking forward to seeing how he does at AA next year and whether he can still make enough contact to be effective. The power plays, and I can live with Ks if he'll still make enough contact. Good for Laweryson in taking advantage of the innings and opportunity. Might be small sample size, but performance still counts. He gave up too many hits in high A this year, but he could be someone who got really hurt by the missed development year and needed time to get back on track. Wallner was the only "real" prospect the Twins sent to the AFL, IMHO. The rest are there on a "we like something about you, now go prove it" tickets. Helmen & Bechtold are doing pretty well, Laweryson is showing his ability to hunt Ks. Sisk, Funderburk, and Featherstone need to do better with the opportunity.
  4. jmlease1
    This is...interesting? I can't see spending $17M on Marte to play LF under any circumstances, though, and dropping $14M on veteran bullpen adds while filling the rotation via quantity over quality scares me. (I also don't see Garlick making this team next year) Gray makes sense to me as an option and bringing back Adrianza as a utility option who can actually play SS is interesting.
  5. jmlease1
    I agree. They could use one experienced RH arm to balance things out, but otherwise I feel pretty good about a bullpen featuring Rogers, Thielbar, Duffey, Alcala, Moran, and maybe Gant or Minaya plus 1 FA RH reliever. I expect they'll take a flier on a waiver wire/reclamation project for the 8th spot (which I have no objection to). With some of the other options from the minors...I think they're in decent shape there.
  6. jmlease1
    I think the $15M is total value, not AAV. That's the problem with Knebel or Graveman, who are coming off good seasons: they could demand multi-year deals and I'm less excited about giving any reliever three years with an AAV over $5M, and both of those guys could get offers for $6-7M per year and someone could easily offer them the extra year to close the deal. Do we want that? Imagine if we were stuck with Colome for 2 more years right now. people would be talking about burning the stadium down!
  7. jmlease1
    This post is depressing to me because I love Greinke and part of me just wants him with the Twins, and there's a lot of good evidence here that it would be a terrible idea. Sigh.
  8. jmlease1
    Well, obviously the Twins were also hoping for a bounceback from Jake Cave to fill in some of those LH ABs in the OF to prevent Kirilloff or Larnach from having to carry the burden before they were ready. Unfortunately, Cave struggled, got seriously injured, and never bounced back. Considering how effective he'd been pre-pandemic, it wasn't a crazy bet, but it was one that didn't work out. I think the Twins would have been happy to keep Eddie Rosario from another season, just not for $9M+, and once that decision happened Eddie was gone because pride gets in the way. He'd take less money (he had no choice) but wasn't going to take less from the Twins. Kirilloff was more effective in fewer games even with the injury and cost the league minimum, so it's hard to say the twins made a mistake: they didn't, no matter how fun Eddie Rosario is. He's having one of his patented hot streaks with Atlanta right now, which is great for them, but no team is going to bet on eddie staying hot like that for a full season. He's a good player and a useful one. but he's not a guy to commit to for 3+ years and for significant money. he's had two seasons with a bWAR over 2, and one was his rookie season. (to be fair he probably would have met that in 2020 if there had been enough games). He's likely to be worth 1-2 bWAR next year, containing a fantastic hot stretch and a couple of brutal cold ones at the plate, while adding very little else on the field (the baserunning is poor, the fielding is poor, and that stuff matters). He's unlikely to get a multi-year contract. he is who he is. He's made over $20M in MLB and been a starter for basically 6 seasons. Good for him. But it's a poor financial and baseball decision to pay him more than $5-6M at this point and he was never going to agree to stay with the twins at that number.
  9. jmlease1
    i think he's worth bringing back at the arbitration price. he's good enough that you generally know what you're getting, a 1 year deal has minimal risk, he should have time to recover from the injury by spring training, and he'd have some value at the trade deadline if things tank for the twins again next year. He's a good pitcher and with him, Thielbar, and Moran they'd really have the left side of the bullpen well covered with guys who can destroy lefty batters but also be effective against righties. (I believe in Moran's change) With Rogers back, they could have a very good, very flexible, and very effective bullpen.
  10. jmlease1
    My goodness, these were some moonshots. I can't decide which ones are more fun: the ones that clear the restaurant in CF or the ones that drop into the 3rd deck in LF, or just Sano going slightly oppo to deposit one in the bleachers in CF. Oh, my. you know, Justin morneau hit some long ones in his career so when he's amazed...
  11. jmlease1
    Kirilloff is going to be excellent next season. He can flat-out hit and will fit in very nicely in the heart of the order. he should be the starting LF from Day 1 next year, backup at 1B and get a few days off at DH. here's hoping he plays 150 games next year, because if he does I see 20+ HRs and 30+ doubles with a very nice slash line. He's passable in the corners and can hold it down just fine until 1B opens up.
  12. jmlease1
    I don't disagree, but the problem is the entire fanbase might have PTSD in relation to Colome...and if we do, does the team? But seriously, I'm not sure his style is right overall for the Twins 'pen. He's basically a cutter guy who's hard to square up on if he keeps it out of the heart of the plate, but struggled to do just that at times with the Twins. I'd prefer to get a RH arm who really brings some gas and strike outs to the party. (I'm not sure who that will be at this point, but there should be someone?) Twins will almost certainly run out a 8-man bullpen again, and I like 6 internal options right now: Rogers, Alcala, Duffey, Thielbar, Moran, and John Gant. (I think Gant is a better option for the bullpen. Others might prefer running Minaya back) I really do believe in Moran and his change-up. I'd look to find this year's Trevor May to fill one more spot in FA and look in-house for the last one, in part to keep the Twins from getting stuck in the sunk-cost fallacy. We got to a solid bullpen by the end of the year when we started churning arms until we found the combo that worked. Sign a bunch of veterans to $1M+ contracts and they'd better perform out the gate, because those guys probably don't get churned if/when they struggle. It's a tough world out there for relief pitchers because increasingly there's no "middle class" and more teams are seeing everyone that's not on the top end as being fungible...and they might not be wrong.
  13. jmlease1
    Zack Greinke is interesting. Feels a bit like a boom/bust candidate? Is the drop-off this season due to him finally getting old, or is he going to have a bounceback season for someone and be a really nice starter again? He's been successful before without a huge K rate, but should we be more alarmed that in a season where everyone was striking out a million times his rate dropped sharply? Lot of veteran savvy and know-how for guys like Ober/Ryan and the rest of the young guys who are going to get some chances...but also might just be, you know...old. He does seem to know how to stay healthy. If something higher tier doesn't present itself he's someone I would study and evaluate really hard. but I'll admit to a bias: I've always liked him and I'm a huge fan, even if he's been with the damn cheatin' Astros the last 2 1/2 seasons.
  14. jmlease1
    Excellent reminder on the fungibility of relievers. I'm not interested in giving relievers in their mid-to-late 30's long term deals (3+ years), and I'm really not interested in giving them those deals while paying a premium for a "proven closer". Would I like the Twins to sign a good RHP for the bullpen for next season? yes indeed. But I'd rather get 2 years of a guy like Trevor May for $6-8M per than fling $12-15M at a Kenley Jackson or Craig Kimbrel for 2-3 years and pray they don't collapse.
  15. jmlease1
    I like celestino's chances as a 4th OF who plays a fair amount; the D looks to be quality and I think he'd be able to manage LF just fine in addition to being good in CF and RF. Agree with roger above that as constructed right now, he's an excellent fit as a potential 4th OF because of Kepler/Kirilloff & even Larnach as OF options for this team. (at this point, I don't know that i need to see Max kepler try and hit lefties much longer) All of this presumes that he won't be overwhelmed in his next shot at the majors, but the way he rebounded in AAA speaks very well of him and his chances. Some guys go into a tailspin after experiencing that level of failure, even if they know they're being thrown in long before they should be. celestino took the demotion down to AAA and finished the season very strong. he may never be a 20-30 HR guy, but if he's smacking 30+ doubles a year with 10+ HRs that's enough slugging to get it done if the OBP is also in the .350 range. I think he'll draw enough walks to be effective. The only problem with his being right-handed is with Austin Martin rising behind him, but that's an ok problem to have. I think celestino gets a good chance to be the 4th/5th OF next year out of spring training.
  16. jmlease1
    Absolutely correct. Especially for guys in A-ball where even if they have an already top line breaking pitch the command will almost always need work. A-ball pitchers are are funny. It's easy to get super excited about a guy and just as easy to find 5 reasons why they're not going to make it. I feel like the jump to AA is a big delineator for pitchers: it's harder to simply overwhelm guys with stuff, the hitters have a more advanced approach and won't chase nearly as much, and the hitters have also been exposed to a lot more quality pitching and aren't getting surprised as easily. The age range tends to smooth out a bit too: few teenagers (if any) and more bunching around 23-25. (Wichita's average age was 24.7) If Varland kicks butt in AA, I'm going from intrigued and hopeful to really excited in a big hurry.
  17. jmlease1
    Great season for Varland. Looking forward to seeing how he does next year at AA; it can be a big leap. If Varland thought there was a big difference between hitters in in high-A laying off pitches out of the zone, just wait until he sees more advanced guys in AA! It'll be interesting to see how his stuff plays and if he can continue to hunt up K's like he did in A-ball. He's definitely a candidate to get the quick promotion to AA: by age, performance, and development he looks ready.
  18. jmlease1
    are you just trolling in every thread now? Jeffers is a far superior defensive catcher by basically any possible metric, including the eye test. Astudillo got few chances at catcher this year because the Twins know he's not really any good back there. (Jeffers, even through his struggles, was a more valuable hitter at catcher as well) Astudillo is a fun player and obviously a likable guy, but he's not any kind of solution at catcher and doesn't hit or defend enough to deserve a spot on the 40-man, let alone the MLB roster.
  19. jmlease1
    I'm a Trevor Story fan. I'd love to add him to this team at anything resembling a semi-reasonable price, especially if Buxton doesn't get extended/is traded. (I love Buxton and desperately want him on this team, but I recognize that might not go) He's a fine defensive SS who can swing the bat and I expect his home/road splits might normalize a bit once he gets clear of Coors. I think he's going to be worth at least 12-18 bWAR over the next 4 years and how many seasons of 3-4 bWAR have we compiled at SS in the last decade? (It's 1.) I'm in on Story. I think he'd be a nice fit, he's a bit of a "buy low" candidate right now, but even if this is who he is going forward...there's a lot of value there.
  20. jmlease1
    I'm in on #1: I like Ryan a lot and while I think he's going to have some bumps along the way, I also think he will be a very good starter. The off-speed stuff looked better than advertised and the fastball plays. Do I think he's going to be contending for the Cy year-in and year-out? No, but could he be a dependable starter who gets a little all-star love in a good season and never really has a bad one? I think so. I have no idea how anyone defines "front-line starter" or "ace" or any of that any longer. I'm out on #2: Just not sure Jax has the stuff to be impactful at the MLB level. Maybe his fastball ticks up if he moves into a full-time relief role and plays up a bit more...but I wouldn't see him as anything more than a long man in the bullpen at this point, and that's not going to have a significant impact. I would love to be wrong? I'm in on #3, though I don't think it's going to be at 1B for at least another season. I'm all in on Kirilloff's hit tool if he can stay healthy. He's good great bat skills, makes great hard contact, and I think he understands the strike zone (it's just hard to lay off a pitch when you know you can still hit it). I see a lot of line drives in his future and I'm happy to see him start in one of the corners next season. I'm out on #4,,.for now. Not because I don't like Royce Lewis, not because I've already decided he's not a SS...just think that despite his talent it'll take him half a season at least to knock off the rust and get up to game speed. but I still like Royce.
  21. jmlease1
    Wallner is probably the only real prospect here. The rest look like "show us something, kid' guys. Hopefully Wallner works on cutting down his Ks; if he can drop that down a bit while doing damage when he makes contact, he's got a chance. he does draw walks at least.
  22. jmlease1
    I think people have pretty well covered the Simmons issue, lol. (I'm in agreement: his defense was worth, his offense was too putrid to be allowed near a twins lineup again, etc) I'm a 100% no on signing Cruz, much as I loved him as a player here. Age is undefeated. Eventually it gets all of us, and as special as Cruz is, he's going to hit that wall too and I'd rather not be holding the bag when it does since he's already off the team (and we got spectacular value for him). We've got plenty of guys worth rotating through the DH spot, so I'd rather keep it open to ensure that someone like Arraez has a spot to hit in, Donaldson can take a break without losing us his bat, Kirilloff can take some reps at 1B without Sano being forced to take a seat, etc. Better chances of keeping some of these hitters healthy and productive, while still giving opportunities to young guys like Miranda too. Beyond that, he's going to command $10M if the NL adds the DH easily, and I'd rather spend that on pitching/SS. I loved the Boomstick. Great guy, great signing, great player...but this would sadly be a reunion that i think would end in tears rather than cheers.
  23. jmlease1
    Will you come back an apologize when he doesn't sign a long-term deal with Toronto this off-season? Berrios wants to test free agency, and has made that clear. They didn't trade him because he wanted a market-rate deal; they traded him because the only way to lock him up long term was to offer something well above market rate, otherwise they were risking him going elsewhere for nothing. We have an excellent chance to compete in 2022 if we can add the right pitching moves and at least one of about 5 quality pitching prospects steps forward. The lineup is good enough to compete. The idea the franchise has "no belly to spend" is a canard: did you forget Josh Donaldson? Coming off an excellent season they spent significant money to take an very good lineup and try to make it a great one. But never let reality get in the way of a chance to call the Pohlads cheap or the front office incompetent...
  24. jmlease1
    I would have loved to have a real debate between a healthy Kirilloff and Ober for RoY. shame about that wrist injury and I really hope it doesn't chase him throughout his career, because he can really hit. but Ober is the easy choice and looks like he's got a nice future starting games for the twins.
  25. jmlease1
    Honestly, it comes down to whether the change-up is for real, a pitch that he can throw for strikes (or get hitters to chase) so that he doesn't get his brains kicked in by lefties. he was death against righties this year: clearly his fastball/slider mix works great against them and he can hurl both effectively. His problems was entirely against left-handed hitters this year, where while they didn't get tons of hits, when they did they hit the ball a looooong ways. I'm excited about Alcala for next year. Despite how bad the bullpen started the year, it was pretty solid by the end of the year and if Taylor Rogers is back and healthy, I'd feel pretty good about this bullpen if they signed one more good right-handed arm.
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