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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    The Correa news sucks hard. He was really heating up at the plate, and his defense is spectacular. But it is exciting to see Royce come up to the majors. He's been playing so well at Saint Paul that it looks like he might realize his talent in all the ways we hoped. It's also great that when someone like Correa goes down we're bringing up a highly-rated prospect to fill in, rather than hoping a journeyman can slot in and have a couple of great weeks. That's what building the pipeline is all about. Personally, I'm bummed that I'll be on a plane during the game and will have to miss the debut!
  2. jmlease1
    I'm sorry, but no. Don't use these two pitchers in the same sentence. Jim Hoey got tee'd up on everything he threw. His high octane fastball was straight and flat, his splitter wasn't very good, and he couldn't throw strikes or miss bats at the MLB level. Even after a rough game, Duran still has a pitching line that Hoey would have killed for.
  3. jmlease1
    Baserunning may be a problem with this team: Watkins has made some poor decisions on sending runners, but we've also seen quite a few guys getting thrown out at 2B, and if not for some bad plays by the opposition we would have run ourselves into additional outs on the basepaths. When the ball isn't flying out of the yard, you really can't afford those. It's probably the area they're most wobbly this season? It's a disappointing loss, because it was a winnable game, and when you add in the Correa injury it adds a sinking feeling to the whole enterprise. But it's baseball, and you can't overreact to one game or even one series. (you can't underreact either, of course, but staying even-keeled does seem to matter in a long season) Urshela is really scuffling at the plate right now, but with Sano on the IL, Arraez out for COVID and us still carrying a limited bench on the position side, the options are limited. (and now we're losing Correa for some time? UGH) You'd like to see him get a couple of days off and maybe get a mental reset Duran is going to have some of these kinds of struggles. He's a young pitcher, he's new to the bullpen, and it's going to take some time. But giving up HRs is the biggest danger for him. When you throw that hard, the ball can fly back out if/when guys square up on it, whether it's the fastball or the splinker.
  4. jmlease1
    Ugh. The best part about cable was you had everything you needed in one spot and for one price. But cable has been getting worse and worse (prices keep climbing, service is dreadful, you realize that you have 400 channels but rarely watch more than 15 of them, it's a huge pain and expense to just set up to watch in multiple rooms of a house, etc). With streaming, it's become terribly balkanized and to get all of the stuff you want, you end up paying a heck of a lot more than you think going in...especially if you need to get internet service from somewhere separately. $20/month for Bally Sports North? That's a big nope, especially since we know their corporate overlords are slime, and every analyst in the business said they vastly overpaid for the FoxSports affiliates they collected and now they're trying to desperately grind the dollars back after treating their fans like garbage. The Benz move is pretty clownish: he was a quality announcer (it's remarkable how many local play-by-play guys simply aren't very good) and he did a good job with a color man in Jim Petersen that talks A LOT. (YMMV on whether he says enough that's worth listening to, I think, but Petersen talks a lot for an analyst easily more than most) is it on Ballys or the Wolves? Because some of that seems to be a "new owner needs to put their own stamp on the team" feel about it, since they claim to have consulted with the team on it. Of course, if Ballys had a damn clue they would have simply renewed the contract and not asked for the opinion...
  5. jmlease1
    Especially tough on guys who had injuries last year: you can be looking at 2 "wasted" years
  6. jmlease1
    Accurate. Bundy got jumped on by TB for 4 in the 1st in his last start, gave up another run in the 2nd and 3rd, then threw 3 more shutout innings. Bundy's first 3 starts, he had Game Scores of 66, 60, and 63 which is quite good. (I like Game Score as a single metric for evaluating a starter's performance; it's not perfect but it's useful and fairly easy to understand for a game-by-game metric) I understand the thinking behind trying to get another inning or two out of him: he didn't have an absurd pitch count, and the first 2 innings had gone fine. Didn't pan out, but I get the thought process, especially since we'd since Bundy settle down before and claw throw more innings
  7. jmlease1
    Rough one from Bundy. He was the starter signing I was the iffiest about in the offseason, and right now he's not looking up to the challenge. With Gray coming back, and everyone else pitching well, he looks like a candidate to move out of the rotation if he can't get it together quickly. Yes, there were some poor defensive plays and a bit of bad luck, but Bundy also pitched poorly and was very hittable. That's on him. Tough night for Celestino. I have some sympathy for him on the fly ball he couldn't run in on; he didn't get a good read on it and it wouldn't have been an easy play even if he had...but it didn't help his pitcher much to miss that one. And then he rockets a ball that should have been an easy hit and it tags Sanchez (who must have felt like he had extra baseball attraction spray on or something). Correa's HR was a beauty, though! And I'm a fan of Moran and his changeup, so I'm happy to see him back up. He's going to drive some people nuts when he's wild, but that change is a weapon that will make hitters look silly, and it's so fun. Go get 'em tomorrow, win the series with 3 out of 4 and move on happy.
  8. jmlease1
    We've only got the extended bullpen for a few more weeks, so I'm guessing the thought process is: if you have them, use them. While it might not be as aesthetically pleasing baseball to not get your starter through 5 (first time that's happened to Ryan since opening day, btw), I don't mind Rocco deploying his bullpen to save his rookie starter (yes, he's still a rookie) in order to try and hold the line with runners on base when his pitcher is fighting his command a little bit and the umpire a lot. BTW, WTF was with Alan Porter last night? Walking out to the mound to lecture Joe Ryan because he lost control of a slider that the hitter was all too happy to let bounce off him? (Nevin didn't even try to get out of the way, he was a freakin' statue in the box) I was happy to hear Morneau rake the ump on that one. Everyone knew Ryan wasn't throwing at anyone, just a ridiculous play by a grandstanding ump. Note the multiple times said home plate ump waited that extra second on the called third strike to give the big punchout signal. Don't think either team was happy with his zone (rightfully), or his BS.
  9. jmlease1
    I had no idea until last night that the O's had made changes to the fences at Camden. Be interesting to see if that suppresses offense consistently there, but the combo of early season weather/short spring training/higher fences/improved pitching held down the Twins a lot more than any O's staff in quite a while. Fortunately, ours did well in matching them! I like Paddack, and I hope as he gets greater confidence and mastery over his breaking pitches it will help his fastball play up a bit (and it's good to see him cruising that in consistently at 95-96, instead of 92) and I like his changeup a lot. I didn't think he had his best game last night but still kept the team in a low-scoring affair, which is definitely something to like. Correa is a heck of a player. Thrilled for Jose Miranda to get his first MLB game action. The results weren't there last night, but the approach was good and he didn't looked overwhelmed at the plate. Looking forward to seeing him while guys get healthy! He's a talented hitter, and his ability to get a bat on the ball will be nice with RISP.
  10. jmlease1
    I think Kepler would be an option, except we're a little short on OF with Kirilloff on rehab, and Garlick possibly needing some time off as well. I just hope that if they do pull the trigger on bringing up Miranda that they put him in the lineup. While riding the bench will fatten his wallet, it won't do anything for his development. I'm a fan of him as a player, and I think his feel for the strike zone will keep him from getting overwhelmed early.
  11. jmlease1
    I would have put SWR #1 as well. Stankiewicz is off to a great start, but he was also 23 pitching in low-A. Stankiewicz has a better k/9 & bb/9, but SWR takes him on WHIP & ERA, while doing it at a younger age and two levels higher.
  12. jmlease1
    seriously. based on Yankees fans, I thought we were getting The Butcher of Cairo back there, and while I wouldn't call him great, he hasn't had any of those "oh god get him out of there" games either. Defensively, he's been no worse than Garver, really.
  13. jmlease1
    Winder looked terrific. Glad to see him get a regular start and show what he could do. The stuff looked excellent, and he was very composed on the mound. This ump had a big zone today, but I still believe that you only get those calls if you're able to stay around the zone. Winder did and took advantage of it, but he also made guys swing and miss. Please stay healthy! Offense looks like it's getting going, defense is really quality. TB is a good team, and beating them at their place is always good. Sands was wobbly at the start, but this was a good game to bring him in for: big lead, easy to be patient with him. He's flashed some things, so we'll see. He's got talent, time to see how it plays.
  14. jmlease1
    I think Wallner could be a better asset than Rooker; while neither are great fielders Wallner does have a cannon for an arm that will play up in the corners. Hopefully he can improve his route running as a fielder and just be a solid presence out there with a scary arm. But the Ks are seriously concerning. I feel like he's going to need to drop that K-rate pretty significantly to keep advancing, no matter how much power he's got. Totally agree with letting Lewis just play in AAA, even with him crushing it at the plate. He needs time in the field at SS, he needs a good run of healthy play, and we don't need to jump him up to MLB right now.
  15. jmlease1
    You had to like how the Twins kept battling against McClanahan, who has terrific stuff. He kept ringing up Ks, but it never felt the Twins were just getting overwhelmed. You saw Polanco have a long AB against him, etc and they kept fighting him. Garlick of course did exactly what he was supposed to do: crush lefties. Archer didn't have an easy time of it out there, but battled through it and limited the damage. I think he gets another inning if it had been May already and he'd had another start under him, but with his injury history I approve of being cautious with him. Bullpen did a great job. My goodness, Duran! Really nice to see the team keep pushing and add runs in the 9th to pad the lead. Correa is clearly heating up, which is great news. Just a nice win by a team that's playing pretty darn well right now. TBR are a very good team and a tough beat anywhere. Be lovely to steal the series from them!
  16. jmlease1
    Wallner has talent. If he can make enough contact at the plate, he could be a quality player. He definitely adds more in the OF with that arm than someone like Rooker did. Would like to see him get on a hot run.
  17. jmlease1
    Bundy looked really bad to start the game, almost like he was throwing BP. By the time he got out of it, he'd put the team in a big hole. Not great. We'll see how he bounces back? To me, he's the least likely starter to have sustained success and I look at him as a 5th starter, so expectations have to stay in context. Just frustrating to start it out so badly and feel like the game is over almost before it starts. Be interesting to see what Archer has against his old team.
  18. jmlease1
    I really think the way he's gotten bounced around and missed so much time to factors other than injury screwed up his development badly. (no games to pitch in 2020, Olympics in 2021 where he didn't get to pitch, traded again) He'd shown the talent in his one season in A-ball, but when the Jays bumped him up to AA-ball after the year layoff I'm betting it messed with him. Twins have played it smart with SWR, focusing on getting him right last year rather than rush him back with a bunch of innings, and letting him repeat the level this year. Now he's pitching with confidence and letting his talent and skill shine. Just keep getting the starts, SWR. Midseason promotion to AAA, maybe, and line him up to compete for a rotation slot in 2023. I really think the Jays sold low on him, and I'm really happy he didn't get dropped into a package this offseason. I think he's a winner.
  19. jmlease1
    So any time a player has a bad game, they're trash now? If they have a good game are they suddenly amazing? But regardless...everything (including the uninformed eye test) says that Jeffers is a fine catcher. So even if we accept that his bat is trash (and I don't, the bad game not withstanding), the first half of your premise doesn't hold up. Hells bells, man: literally the day before Jeffers went 2-3 with a double and home run. The last seven days (on the very page you linked) shows Jeffers was 5-16 with 3 doubles and 2 home runs. Stop cherry-picking out one bad game at the plate to try and bury a player that you seem to hate for...reasons?
  20. jmlease1
    I'm really kinda surprised at the dreadful fielding by Detroit this series. didn't expect that from them. I didn't think they were elite defensively, but they looked a real mess. I'll take it, but wow. Glad to see Celestino have good day out there. I like him quite a bit, and see him as being a real asset as a 4th OF for this team, even if it's not right away.
  21. jmlease1
    Which Jeffers are you talking about? Jeffers is good catcher: appears to call a good game, sets a nice target and does an excellent job with pitch framing, and blocks the plate pretty well. He's not the greatest at controlling the running game, but he's not awful at it either. And right now he's hitting just fine: OPS+ of 117. Good power, solid eye at the plate. (He's also significantly out-playing Mitch Garver so far) Weird take, mah dude.
  22. jmlease1
    Good day overall for the top prospects. Varland is a fascinating prospect, and I'm really rooting for him. It's not just the local boy angle, it's also the D-II aspect of it. If Varland succeeds, teams are going to be more likely to take a second look at a kid coming out of a decent D-II program and give them a shot. My alma mater just had a kid pitch a perfect game (there's been less than 30 in all of D-II's history) and it's a exciting to think that someone like him could get a chance at a pro career if varland continues to grow. It would be great if the circle change can be the other off-speed pitch for him: he's got a fastball that plays, the slider is good as long as guys can't just sit fastball/slider, and the change could be the last piece that lets him really go. I've always felt like AA is where you figure out whether you have enough pitches to be a starter, because the hitters are getting good enough that you can't just overwhelm them with a ridiculous fastball all the time or one awesome breaking ball. Wallner is continuing on a solid run too, hopefully he and Miranda just needed live ABs and a little time to get warmed up.
  23. jmlease1
    Fangraphs had Strotman at #17 and Ryan at #18 in their 2021 TB prospect rankings KLaw had Ryan at #13, and Strotman outside the top 20 (based on mention he was probably 25-30?) in his 2021 TB prospect rankings. I think part of it was TB's system was so deep they had a 40-man crunch to deal with as well, so they probably felt comfortable with an "overpay" that was from outside their top 10, because they were at risk of losing someone anyways in the next Rule V draft. I suspect they looked at Ryan as a guy who they questioned how he would play up at the MLB level if he was so fastball dependent and Strotman as destined for the bullpen who was outside their top 20. I think TB missed on Ryan, and they're probably digging in on it. Because Ryan's secondary offerings were better than advertised on arrival, and his slider development this season has been tremendous. Of course, it's still April, and guys have had hot starts before and fallen off. But points to the twins scouting for identifying Ryan as a gettable pitcher in the deep Rays system, and the team for doing good work with him to continue his refinement as a player.
  24. jmlease1
    Joe Ryan is a delight to watch. The knock on him coming in was that he didn't have secondary offerings and that he was just a fastball guy whose funky delivery and work up in the zone had gotten him through the minors. But even last year, we saw that his changeup and curveball were better than advertised and could offset that fastball (which played up beyond its velocity). Now he's added that slider into the mix as a significant offering that he can throw for strikes and get swings and misses with and he's looking better than ever. His control is still very good, he's piling up Ks, and if he can keep the ball in the park he's going to have a great year. He was delightful to watch last night. Morneau was almost gleeful talking about him last night, how confident he looked, how consistent he was throwing...compared him to Brad Radke. (I would have no complaints of getting another machine like Radke) You know things are rolling when they're going to break and Morneau calls it out: "Boy, this is fun to watch!" Kepler's breakout is great to see as well, and I hope it continues. He's gotten a fair amount of (deserved) heat around here: he's bounced a lot of balls into the shift over the last year or two and had a lot of weak contact. Last night he was locked in and made loud contact and sent the ball flying. Great to see. Showed his good eye at the plate while punishing his pitch, and that is a sustainable approach if he keeps putting the barrel on the ball. Lovely game, with good defense, great pitching, and some good offense. And it's not like Detroit is a bad team any longer: the top half of their lineup has been playing very well (their bottom half has not), they've added pitching, and they shouldn't be looked at as a pushover. Last night they looked like trash against Joe Ryan. No complaints.
  25. jmlease1
    I don't know that watkins really caused this by throwing up the stop sign, since because of the stop-start moves Larnach was doing he really had no chance of scoring once he finally got himself to 3rd? (I've rolled my eyes at some of his decision-making as 3B coach this season, but I think he's off the hook a little here) Larnach clearly didn't get much of a read on sano's liner; it looked like his brain kept telling him "it's a hit! it's an out. it's a hit! it's an out." until he finally saw that the ball hit the ground. not a great job by him. not a great job of baserunning by sano either, who failed to see what had happened in front of him (but I can understand his thinking on it: to him it looks like a double if he hustles and the runners ahead of him should be gone). Urshela was caught betwixt & between; not sure there's anything he can do that's right there? Either he's out at 3B or he stays at 2B and Sano is out, if Detroit doesn't kick it away. Wild. Twins D has had a few howlers this year (oof, Arraez) but overall the D has been good. You get some wins just by not kicking a game away.
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