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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I love the guy, but who does he bump in MLB? We need to give Rooker ABs to see if he's a real player, we're paying Donaldson a lot of money to play 3B, Polanco & Arraez are proven at 2B, and frankly we need to have Sano get ABs and hopefully perform well to stabilize his value as well. Better to have Miranda play every day at AAA and be ready to compete for a job in 2022 than come up and sit on the bench. He's crushing it and already jumped a level. He gets called up if there's a injury need, otherwise he simply goes wherever he can play every day. It's not like we need him to "save" the season.
  2. jmlease1
    Getting rid of the corpse of JA Happ makes me so happy I could plotz. It was a perfectly reasonable signing in the off-season that crapped out completely after 5 starts. The last 12 have been basically a nightmare and getting rid of him for anything is awesome. He's been absolutely destroyed too many times in the last 2 months for me to ever want to see him in a Twins uniform on the mound ever again. I will be checking out Cardinals box scores just to see if he has a Lance Lynn-like rebound...but I don't think he will.
  3. jmlease1
    They're dropping him based on his power drop in half a season. After five minutes of digging, I found out his power loss was due to a change in swing after a hand injury. I think that's a pretty stupid reason to change your ranking on a guy.
  4. jmlease1
    Fine, instead of nefarious I'll just call it stupid. What if Martin has a minor injury that he's playing through that they're not disclosing? The guy had plenty of power at Vanderbilt (against good competition); to suddenly drop him down now after half a season at AA (and going straight from college to AA ain't easy) based on second-hand reports is arrogant and dumb.
  5. jmlease1
    Sabato is waaaaaay too high. I'm sorry, he's been terrible at the plate in low A. His value is entirely in his bat and all he can do is draw walks right now. Just no.
  6. jmlease1
    Name names for who they talked to, or I'm calling BS. What if the people they talked to were from the Toronto FO looking to cover their asses on the deal by trying to cast some shade on the guy they just gave up? Halfway through the guy's first professional season and they're gonna re-do his ranking? I hope he hits a bunch of dingers immediately and they flip back again, that'd be pretty funny. We'll see how this turns out, but the value seems pretty good here in the deal. I'm sure plenty of people will find reasons to have the entire Twins front office dismissed.
  7. jmlease1
    Not great for Sabato to leave game one. Hope it's nothing serious; he needs ABs and this has not been a great year for him. (I think he's rated too high on the prospect list, personally. He takes a lot of walks, but isn't making much contact when he swings and isn't doing damage when he actually makes contact. Basically he's showing one skill as a hitter right now and that's not enough. He looks like a guy who was clearly harmed by losing a year of MiLB development.) Javier is having a decent bounceback year but he still needs to work on some things at the plate. Still a ton of Ks and not enough BBs, but considering he moved up a level after not playing last season this is pretty good progress. Let's hope he finishes the season strong and continues to progress.
  8. jmlease1
    Bit revisionist history, yes? Baddoo was coming off a significant injury and the missing pandemic minor league year and in his last organized play year hadn't actually done anything of note (slash line of .214/.290/.393) and hadn't taken a single AB above A-ball. The decision was never "protect Cave or Baddoo"; Cave was someone who had 2 years of success at the MLB level for the Twins (and a poor pandemic year) and was well-suited to be a 4th OF...and broke his back this season. How can you let Baddoo go? Because you're betting that no team is going to be willing to keep a completely unproven player on the roster for a full season when he missed 1 1/2 seasons of development. It's the same kind of bet that they made on Miranda, and it went well. But the choice at the time was keep Baddoo or keep one of Celestino/Rortvedt, both of whom were more likely bets to be taken in the Rule 5. (backup catchers who can field and call a game can be stashed on a roster even if they can't hit, and proven defenders in CF are easier to hang onto as well because both can still add value even if they're not ready to hit at MLB) I'm happy with Gordon's development so far and pleased to see him get the chance with the Twins. He's never going to hit for power, but he's got a good feel for the strike zone and if he can get on base at a good clip, give speed and positional flexibility off the bench, then he'll be a nice utility option.
  9. jmlease1
    I think the Twins FO is screwed. If they make a deal for Berrios, they're going to get buried for "giving up on 2022" and will likely get pilloried by the fan base for not getting enough, because there won't be a proven MLB player in the batch. If they don't make a deal for Berrios, they're going to get buried by the fanbase for not getting something for him while getting destroyed for not locking him up to a long-term deal (with the usual cascade of "the Pohlads are cheap" cries). Because this season has gone so poorly with expectations being fairly high, you have a lot of loud voices who no longer have any faith or trust in them, and I really am starting to think there's nothing that will satisfy, absent a trade screw-job so monumental it'll make Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell look even. It's interesting how fast things can turn here.
  10. jmlease1
    Please cut JA Happ. It's time. We have enough healthy starters right now and there's just no excuse any longer for running out a terrible pitcher that gives your team no chance to win. He had a fine career, but he's cooked at this point. Happ can't get anyone out and is getting drilled by anyone who happens to be right-handed. He can't really get lefties out either, they're just not crushing the ball against him. He's had 7 starts where he's given up runs equal to or greater than innings pitched. He's only had 7 starts all year with a Game Score over 50...and you start out with 50 points in Game Score. 4 of those 7 were in his first 5 starts. A solid start every 3-4 starts isn't acceptable. The signing was reasonable at the time and it looked good at the start of the season, but this is why you have a 1 year deal: so if it goes bad (and this has gone hideously bad) you can cut bait and move on. What do you gain by running him out there to get his brains beaten in for another 10 starts? Let's see what we have with Strotman, Barnes, Jax, etc. Happ got destroyed by Detroit, a bad team going nowhere, twice in 10 days. He has zero value. Time to cut bait, please.
  11. jmlease1
    Robles started out the season great, then settled in as a decent bullpen option. He's been flammable in July, which happens to coincide with the period where the team is trash and has had very few bullpen options so he's getting run out there maybe a bit more than he should. (does it make sense for him to appear in 44% of the Twins games?) But the acquisition was fine. Don't let recency bias and the groupthink that "the FO is trash and can't do anything right" overrule reality: Robles shouldn't be going out on back-to-back nights right now; it isn't going well. Hope Garver is ok.
  12. jmlease1
    I'm hearing this opinion a lot on the boards, but what we're hearing now is that it wasn't the guaranteed money that was the sticking point on the extension, it was something related to the structure of the incentives. So from a reasonableness perspective, the issue is apparently not the guaranteed money at all. but never let the truth get in the way of calling the Pohlad Family cheap...
  13. jmlease1
    If/when Donaldson gets traded, I suspect we'll see Miranda. probably platooning a bit with Arraez at 3B.
  14. jmlease1
    If you're not enjoying the Jose Miranda Experience, I just don't know what to tell you. I love seeing a player figure things out like this and really seize an opportunity. the question then becomes how it will translate in MLB, where there's no question it's much much tougher. This is an absolutely monster power surge from Miranda that's coming without him sacrificing anything on his K rate, so it's going to be really interesting to see how sustainable it is.
  15. jmlease1
    I would love to know a) what the incentive/escalator clauses looked like, b) the total potential value of the contracts the Twins offered, and c) what was the Buxton counter-offer. And I think it's wise to withhold judgment until those things are known, because without that information we're in the land of wild speculations. For those who think this is just the Twins being "cheap": They used Aaron Hicks contract as a baseline, not exactly out of line for an oft-injured CF, with potentially much more money available. And without knowing what the total package value actually is, calling the team cheap is a bit silly. If the escalator/incentive package increases the total value to $200M are they still being cheap? we have exactly the same amount of information that the maximum value is $200M as it being $100M. None. For those thinking the Twins are just covering themselves with the fan base with low-ball offers they know won't be accepted before dealing Buxton: y'all are already crushing the team presuming this is the case. Why exactly do you think the team is filled with people who think they call bluff Twins Nation into buying this with a vocal part of the community already hunting for them? Besides that, the counter from the Buxton camp hasn't leaked yet. If the Twins were trying to pull this maneuver, they would have leaked the counter immediately to let the world decide if it was reasonable or not, especially if it's wildly divergent from the Twins offer. I want Buxton to stay and get extended, but this is the hardest contract I've ever seen to assess risk and fair value. You have a player with massive ability and terrible health. star power combined with part-time availability. prime years that might never be realized. danger of accumulated injuries creating declining athleticism and an early decline phase. I literally have no idea what Buxton gets on the open market.
  16. jmlease1
    Wallner doesn't seem to have any lingering effects from his time on the IL. The K rate is still way to high for comfort, but he's doing plenty of damage when he does contact the ball. Palacios is going to contend for a spot on the 40-man this off-season, I think. Very interesting how he's rebuilt his standing this season and recovered his hitting stroke after not playing in 2020 and two rotten seasons in the Rays organization. Looks like he made a smart choice in coming back to the Twins, who have clearly worked with him well. I could see him getting a call up to AAA before the end of the season, but we probably shouldn't get too excited about him seizing the starting SS job in 2022 on the basis of a single rebound season. But there might be something there and it was a smart minor-league signing.
  17. jmlease1
    Is this the same wrist he injured in the minors? And did he have surgery that time to correct the problem as well, or was that a rest & recovery move? I love him as a hitter and really hope we're not seeing the start of a recurring problem.
  18. jmlease1
    I agree, the power is legit...but guys who hit .240 in AAA usually hit like .200 in MLB. If he actually becomes Adam Dunn, that would be great...but right now he looks more like he'd be 2013 Adam Dunn rather than prime Adam Dunn...who was a guy who hit .304 in his 4 minor league seasons. Through his age 26 season, Dunn had 3000 MLB PAs. Rooker has 51 so far. It's feeling a stretch to say he's even gonna be that kind of guy, unfortunately.
  19. jmlease1
    I'm rooting for Rooker, but unless he shows he can hit an off-speed pitch at the MLB level and make more consistent contact...then he's a 4-A hitter without a defensive position. I'm all for the Twins calling him up and having him DH to see what he's got, but if I'm seeing him as a K-prone player who might not be able to hit breaking balls whose upside might be late-period Adam Dunn...he's not going to have a lot of value in trade. I'm glad he's coming up. It's a lost season and we need a power RH bat to replace Cruz, so let's see what he's got. But even his work in AAA doesn't scream success in MLB. The power is there, but hells bells, my dude is only hitting .239 in Saint Paul.
  20. jmlease1
    Another day, another dinger for Jose Miranda. He's a delight, and I'm thrilled he's having such a great season. Vallimont is going to be a really interesting prospect to watch. You can live with the walks when he's mowing down hitters like this and not giving up too many hits between Ks. His WHIP is the stat I'll be watching for the rest of the season: if he can keep having outings where it's around 1.0 the rest of the year in AA while maintaining the big K/9 rate, then he's a real prospect who will advance in the organization and contend for a spot in the rotation sooner rather than later. The other good thing is with a K-rate like that, he's a great option to move to the bullpen if he can't make it work consistently in the rotation. Nice floor, interesting ceiling on this guy and should be fun to follow.
  21. jmlease1
    If basically the only real downside to a trade is "We had to give up an old player who was unlikely to be on the team next year and he's a really good dude"...then it's a pretty good trade. Look, I love Nelson Cruz as much as anyone, but we got two AAA pitchers that are considered to be good prospects from an organization that has a deep minor league system and a great reputation for developing pitching. The hate levels are low. The like levels are high.
  22. jmlease1
    Rays have a 40-man crunch every year and are long in pitching prospects. They're going for it this year (as they should) and made a big bid to get Cruz, who fills a huge need for them before anyone else could get him and to get the extra games before the deadline to really maximize his value. They may have "overpaid", but this is where it doesn't really hurt you and why you shouldn't worry about "winning" the trade because you're getting what you absolutely need. Twins give up a great player in Cruz, but he's a FA after the season, he's 9000 years old, and the team is going nowhere. They got 2 pitching prospects that are close to the majors, which is key because they're short on starting pitching right now. It looks like very good value and fit in with a strategy of trying to reload for next year rather than tear down and rebuild. A smart trade for both teams. If the Rays win a title, they won't care what either of these prospect do. If either of these prospects make the rotation for the Twins, they won't care if Cruz helps Tampa win a title. Good luck to Nelson Cruz, a great hitter and class act. Probably the best FA signing of all-time for the Twins and the best DH (not really a position of strength, historically, but still) of all-time.
  23. jmlease1
    I don't think the twins are terribly concerned about blowing option years on balazovic; if he gets to the point where he's out of options and hasn't established himself in the rotation they're going to consider it a failure much more broadly. So i think we could see him in september, unless they have him on an innings limit. The Twins are smart enough to know that there's no real correlation between a jump in innings pitched and injury (Verducci's Law has been pretty well debunked) but since he's never thrown over 100 innings in his entire career, and didn't pitch competitive baseball at all last year because of the pandemic, they may be more cautious. If he can get to 120 IPs in 2021, it will position him very nicely to contend for a rotation spot in 2022. I don't think he'll get excluded from consideration if he doesn't make the leap for a cup of coffee this year, though, especially because we have such a dire need for MLB starting pitching. I'm so impressed with Jose Miranda, who continues to do basically everything right. I'm almost more surprised when he doesn't get two hits at this point.
  24. jmlease1
    Buxton, at this point. I think there's a real chance they get the extension done, which locks him in. Berrios will not do an extension unless the Twins offer him better than Zack Wheeler money...and I'm not sure they want to do that? Because that's what it's going to take to extend Berrios: 5/$130M is probably the starting point for his camp for an extension. What he gets on the open market is a little less clear, but the range is probably $100-150M based on his age, production, and health. And he seems interested in testing that market and maximizing his money, which is absolutely his right. I don't think they Twins are going to be ruled out in FA, but at the same time, they're unlikely to get any kind of "hometown discount". He doesn't seem to be worried about potential injury, and based on his track record, it's hard to blame him. So that makes extending him challenging, because the exchange there is always a little less money for a little more security. I think it's increasingly likely that Berrios is traded in the off-season and they try to get his replacement in the deal. If there isn't a deal they like, they'll bring him back for his last season and take the comp pick if he signs elsewhere...which feels likely in that the Twins won't want to overpay on him and someone else is more likely to convince themselves that they can improve him a bit more and make him worth $25-30M AAV. (This will be more palatable if a Winder/Duran/Balazovic has established themselves as a legit MLB starter...)
  25. jmlease1
    I'm entirely sure I'm all that optimistic; I have no idea what the odds are on him unlocking something else to utilize his stuff more consistently. If he stays the same guy he is right now, he's probably out of baseball in 2 years (maybe that gets extended by a year or so if he changes organizations). You just don't know on guys like this, which is why he's a boom or bust player: if he finds the command he needs, then he probably gets his BB/9 down around 3.0-3.5 and his H/9 to more like 7. Well, if his WHIP is 1.0-1.2, then all those Ks play up a bit more and he's a legit MLB prospect. The fact that he hunts Ks like no one's business while keeping the ball in the park makes him someone worth working with in the minors to see if they can unlock enough command to make him really go. If he was someone who was consistently above 1.5 on his HR/9 in addition to his control issues, I'd be more concerned about his potential upside, but this looks like he really has a singular issue. I'm much more hopeful about someone where you're trying to fix one problem (even a big one) than two or three.
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