jmlease1

Nice that they think that highly of Henriquez; a good reminder that the Garver deal wasn't just about SS acquisition. Steer is an interesting prospect; if he can trim back the Ks a bit and maintain the power he can be a quality asset. Glad to see others find him interesting too.

I never know what to think about spring training results. you can't count on them to be predictive of how a player is going to do during the year, but at the same time if a guy isn't getting results it makes you very nervous at best. I hope Ober & Winder are looking strong and healthy. I still want the Twins to sign (or trade for) another pitcher, but both of those guys are going to be important to the Twins this season. It'll be great if Polanco gets out to a fast start this season; he was pretty rough out the gate last year coming off the injury,

There's no real problem with depth for 3B: Urshela & Arraez can handle the position right now in MLB with no real questions, Miranda looks ready even if he doesn't have MLB experience yet, Martin is coming up through the minors so thinks look fine right now. The only real issue is we don't know what kind of offensive production we're going to get out of Urshela, so for now there's a real potential downgrade from Donaldson. The projection systems tend to have him falling about the midpoint or maybe a bit more between his 2019 season and 2021, and that seems pretty reasonable, which gets you solid starter numbers but nothing exceptional. Arraez's lack of power limits his upside, but he's in a similar boat. Between the two, it's fairly likely we'll get good production. What I want to see if Miranda seizing the job with a vengeance. He'll have some struggles, I'm sure and is definitely more of a bat-first player at this point, but the upside is much higher. Will he match Donaldson's production from last year? Maybe not yet...but I think he could get close. Urshela feels better suited to more of a utility role (and I'd be happy to have him be a defensive replacement for Miranda at time too) and with arraez hitting lefty, you could protect Miranda against some of the toughest RHP as well. I think there's enough ABs in there for everyone? It's also important to remember when thinking about replacing production that Donaldson played less than 100 games at 3B last season and his defense was starting to slip some as he becomes less mobile. but I think Miranda will be the 3B of the future for us and will be a fine player. Maybe Martin comes charging through and takes it from him, but I'm happy to worry about that when it happens. Depth looks good for this season with multiple players that should be able to handle the job. Maybe Cavaco starts to get it together and becomes the next guy?

Lot of good here. The biggest criticism is how much better can it get? Can't be mad about that. It'll be interesting to see how Polanco does with a new double-play partner, and if there's defensive improvement (hardly an outrageous proposition for a player coming off his first year in MLB at the position who is in the prime of his career to add a little on that side of things) then he should be contending for an all-star spot easily. I'll be interested to see where his BABIP lands at the end of the season; last year he was 25 points below his career average and he'll be an interesting case study to see if it's just a little bad luck or his evolution in approach to put more power into his offensive game. Polanco was also part of the Legion of Slow Starts last season that help doom the team; it'll be very interesting to see how he does out the gate this year. (as a switch hitter, he's even more valuable; you can slot him in wherever you want in the top half of the lineup.) he's a heck of a player and that extension is looking better all the time. I like the depth at this position, even if a lot of it is coming off players who have failed out (or might fail out) at SS. We have a lot of guys in the system and on the team that can jump in at 2B if Polanco goes down. None of them are likely to match his performance (at least not right away) but that's because Polanco is an all-star caliber player and there aren't very many teams who have those guys sitting on the bench. hip-hip, Jorge!

well, don't get your prescription filled just yet: I'd guess Kirilloff is more likely to start in the OF and get time at 1B when Sano needs a break or is at DH. I wouldn't expect Kirilloff to spend much time on the bench at all when Sano is in the field.

well, you can't really expect to go into the season having a clear backup to the backup at every position? Sano is the starter, Kirilloff is the backup, and if both of them go down (or are totally ineffective) then they'll probably look at Miranda (who has gotten a little time there but not much, but could probably handle it), Sanchez (who hasn't played there, but would give a big target to throw to and might be able to handle it), or Urshela (who if he can backup SS almost certainly has enough glove to survive at 1B) for this season. Hell, Kepler could could shift down there in a pinch if they don't want to let Rooker on the dirt. They've got some guys that could spend some time there. Next season they'll probably be looking for a backup/platoon option if Sano moves and Sabato isn't ready, but there's always a few of those decent hitters/ok defenders out there on the FA market that you're happy to pay $5M in FA, but not $8M in arbitration. So while we don't have a hot prospect buring up the minors right now...1B options are available.

Depth chart looks fine at 1B. We'll see whether Sabato is a real player and might eventually contend for time (I'm a little skeptical because he was so bad in low A as a college player entering the pros; instead of dominating younger competition, he was trash and got a promotion on scholarship. To be fair, he ran with it and lit things up in high A, but it's a smaller sample size of success.) It'll be a little interesting to see what happens with Sano after this season, but the Twins are in good shape. If Sano has a great season, they can run it back with him for another go. If he's just ok (or worse) they can move on. And there are FA options on the market every year for guys who can play at 1B. I think Kirilloff is going to be a terrific player as long as that damn wrist holds up.

seems like a good fit to be part of the reliever churn as they fill out the back of the bullpen...and maybe he can be something more? Fits with my theory of bullpen building, so I'm good with it. We have guys on the back end of the 40-man that can be dropped, but more importantly, maybe a few guys on it go away as part of a deal for a starting pitcher?

The problem I have in giving up anyone off this top 5 list is that for 3 of them we would be selling low. Ryan isn't going to be traded because then we're just upgrading a starting slot, not filling one. Miranda is the only one we would be selling "high" on, and there seems to be a perception (manufactured, perhaps, by teams hoping to get him cheaper?) that his season might have been a fluke. Martin, Lewis, and Balazovic are all coming off seasons where they had varying degrees of injury and difficulty, and when you sell low on a prospect it usually means you're adding in more guys...which increases the odds of the whole thing backfiring on you. I'm happier moving prospects that are rising, like what we did with Petty. He's a terrific talent, but could have a ton of bumps in the road. But the potential projections on him are terrific. All of the guys on this list are getting downgraded to some extent because they're close to the majors (or already there) and prospect evaluators almost always rank potential over actuality. Because you can always talk yourself into projecting development. The reality is, you should value guys that are closer to the majors more, because there fewer obstacles in their development path and you should know more about who they are and will be as players. But it doesn't seem to work that way...

I'd prefer to keep Duran in the rotation and have him working in AAA as a start to get ready for a first call-up as a MLB starter. We're going to need additional starters during the season even if we sign/trade for another guy in the rotation; you just don't get through a season without needing starts from 8-12 pitchers. Duran seems perfectly situated to be a reinforcement this year. Let him work that way and see if he can stay healthy for a season and let him seize the opportunity when it comes. Yes, you can move someone back into a rotation after testing them in the bullpen (Thank you, Johan) but it's really hard to do successfully in the same season I think and the Twins are going to need players like Duran, Winder, etc to come up and start IMHO. If we're going to send someone to the 'pen, I'd vote Strotman, who also has a plus fastball and might be better suited to the bullpen anyways.

So...2 MLB starters (right now, Arraez is starting either as our DH or 3B and Kepler is still our starting RF) one under team control and one with a team-friendly contract, our best starting pitching prospect (#4 overall), two more of our top 20 prospects, AND another pitcher? For Frankie Montas? Talk about buying high.

I'm pretty good with this move. He's got a good track record of success, and has been deadly against righties over his career without getting smashed by lefties. I wouldn't expect him to be the same guy he was in Seattle, but if he lands near his career averages then he'll be a solid bullpen piece. At $2.5M he's easy enough to move on from if it turns out that he's cooked. I expect a lot of his problems at the start of last season were related to his long layoff? I'm not a fan of dropping big money on most relievers (Atlanta is dropping almost $40M on three relievers; there's pretty decent odds that one of those is going to go bad for them) and the premium paid for a "proven closer" is usually a waste. I prefer the way the Twins seem to be doing it: limited multi-year deals, not overpaying, developing from within, and looking for guys who have some interesting peripherals and/or an elite pitch to work with. Right now the bullpen looks like: Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, Thielbar, Smith, Cotton, and Garza Jr, with one spot to be fought over between Moran, Jax, Stashak, and Thorpe. Looks solid enough. Hopefully Duffey has a bit of a bounceback season, but Alcala looks like he's rising, and I'm a big fan of Moran's potential.

Why not? unless you start stacking lefty hitters in your lineup (which leaves you vulnerable to relievers in later innings) he's going to either have to be in the top two or towards the bottom, unless you think he should be in the heart of the order? His lack of power seems to cut against him batting 4th-5th, and his bad knees and lack of speed maybe don't make him the best choice to lead off. I suppose you could swap him and Kepler in my proposed order, but I'm not sure it makes that much difference. We're likely to start 4 RH, 4 LH, and one switch hitter in the lineup, so alternating guys makes a fair amount of sense. No breaks in the lineup, and Arraez gets to hit in front of someone with a decent amount of pop in Jeffers this way.

I'm not worried about DH production. Arraez has bad knees and DH is a fine way to get his bat in the lineup. Sano will gets some run there (with Kirilloff shifting in to 1B, I suspect), Sanchez will get some ABs in there, Miranda will probably get some time, maybe even Kirilloff or Larnach. It's great to have a primary DH when it's someone who hits like Cruz, but otherwise, why not use it as a rotational spot to keep a quality bat in the lineup while giving a guy's legs a break? We have enough guys who play corner spots who can add offensive value that rotating makes sense to get them playing time and will hopefully keep people healthy. It's not like we're going to be running Chip Hale out there as a DH again.

It would have been nice to not have the opt-out after year 1, but when you have the opportunity to sign a player of this talent you have to do it. And while everyone is predicting that Correa will opt-out after year one (and it is fairly likely) you never know with these things. He could decide that he likes it here or that the money isn't going to be better (or the teams that might have it aren't where he wants to go) and stick around for a second year. You don't know for sure and with the talent wave we have coming through, this could be an attractive place for him to play. The odds are he'll opt-out after one year, but it's not a guarantee. But the Twins are well-positioned to manage that one way or the other. Now we don't have to push Martin or Lewis up too fast and they can get a normal development year. Urshela doesn't have to be stretched as an every day SS and can slide into a utility role. It's good use of our money, but doesn't keep us from being able to lock up our young players down the line or add more pitching.

Correa is a fantastic fit for the Twins. He's an impact player on offense who hits lefties & righties, home or away and provides 20 hr pop at a position where power is harder to find...and does it while not being a K-machine. An average season by him at the plate is an excellent one, the kind of performance the twins haven't gotten...ever? His defense is elite and he makes the routine plays and the spectacular ones. He's a complete player and fills the hole wonderfully. I'll be interested to see where he hits in this lineup; I'm guessing he might land 3rd? Maybe it goes: Buxton Polanco Correa Kirilloff Sano Kepler Miranda Arraez Jeffers That looks pretty fun!

welp, I will admit I did not see that coming! I figured Story was the guy, if we were going to nail SS. Correa seemed out of the realm. Can't say I'm mad about it! Gotta say, this is where I want them to spend this kind of money. Sign Pineda and I feel awfully good about the Twins offseason and the potential of this team to contend in 2022. If Correa is healthy then he's an all-star, maybe an MVP candidate. That's awesome. (This move might even be enough to get people to stop complaining about losing Rortvedt)

Byron Buxton has played more games over the past three seasons than Mitch Garver (admittedly, it's close).

The Twins traded their best two right-handed hitters? Byron Buxton would like a word.

you're missing my point, though, which has been that right now and likely for this season Gary Sanchez is the better player. Rortvedt could end up being better, and might be a better fit (the fact that he hits lefty helps as a platoon partner) for a team, but people are acting like Ben Rortvedt is a better player than Gary Sanchez, only looking at Sanchez's flaws and ignoring the rather sizable one that Rortvedt may have at the plate. We've had people ripping this deal claiming that all three of the players the Yankees got were better than anything the twins got and getting way out on their skis about ben rortvedt.

Pitchers will take the no-hit defensive catcher because the better receiver impacts them directly, whereas their lack of offense doesn't. but when a guy is a 41 OPS+, maybe you shouldn't let the pitcher decide who their personal caddy is. Gerrit Cole gets paid a ridiculous amount of money maybe he can sack up and pitch to whomever the team decides.

I'd put Kirilloff in LF. We won't be great defensively, but he'll be ok. Although I might consider shifting kepler over and having Kirilloff in RF, but they seem adverse to moving Kepler?

You're basically saying that it doesn't matter what the player's offense is, the only metric that matters for assessing how good a catcher is, is how good they are on defense. And I'm sorry, if that kind of assessment was ok Andrelton Simmons might still be our SS. You're also saying the Yankees completely changed their thinking on catching last season...but did they? Sanchez played 117 games last season; he appears as a catcher in 110 of them. He only DH'd 5 times. he started 100 games at catcher and had 92 complete games at the position. Look at his starts by month: March/April: 18 May: 18 June: 20 July: 18 Aug: 13 Sept: 18 Doesn't really look like they changed all that much, does it? And the Yankees care about money too; if they didn't they would have signed Correa or Story to play SS for them rather than trade for IK-F. They just operate on a little different scale than we do. Bottom line: if Rortvedt doesn't substantially improve his hitting, he will not be a better player than Sanchez next season, at catcher or any other position on the field. the Yankees may be willing to sacrifice offense at catcher and feel like they have enough elsewhere to navigate it, and that it's more important to their formula to have better defense consistently at catcher, and that's all fine. Rortvedt might be a better FIT for them next season and going forward...but right now I'd bet the under on him being a better overall player than Sanchez for next season. And I say this as someone who has been a big Rortvedt supporter. But he was horrendously bad at the plate last season and there's evidence in his minor league history to suggest he's never going to be a good hitter in MLB.

Look, I've been as big a Ben Rortvedt supporter as anyone on this site, but unless he developed his hitting a lot in the offseason...Ben Rortvedt is not actually a better catcher than Gary Sanchez right now. Rortvedt was so horrible on offense that it wiped out all of his value on defense. Sanchez was roughly league average as a hitter and didn't have a good year. Defensively, he's below average, but he's not actually the complete horror show that he's being portrayed as. But his biggest weaknesses is in blocking the plate which shows out more obviously than anything. Historically, he's given up too many passed balls and doesn't protect his pitchers well against wild pitches. And when he's not hitting well, those are magnified even more. Sanchez was worth 1.5 fWAR and 0.7 bWAR last year. YMMV on which measure you trust more. Rortvedt was worth 0.2 fWAR and -0.1 bWAR. There's a real possibility that Rortvedt is simply not going to hit in MLB; it was always the fear with him. I'm not expecting sanchez to suddenly have a renaissance now that he's out of NYC, but deciding that Ben Rortvedt will now develop into a quality starting catcher in NYC is assuming a lot. His defense is good enough for him to be a backup (and Sanchez's offense is good enough for him to do the same, frankly), but let's not put on the rose-colored glasses about Ben Rortvedt just because we're mad at the front office. The average of 7 projection systems used by Fangraphs have Sanchez being with 1.6 fWAR for 2022. For Rortvedt, it's 0.9 fWAR. (admittedly, a couple of these have Rortvedt playing very little time, but even if you quadrupled his time...Rortvedt's average comes in at 1.3 fWAR, and all of these projections have Rortvedt being a significantly better hitter in 2022)

Kinda feels like Nick left off SS as something to watch because there's still so much uncertainty left. I mean, if they sign Trevor Story...there's not much to watch. Kirilloff's health is something to watch for me: if he's healthy, I think his bat is a huge asset (I would strongly consider batting him cleanup behind Buxton) and I think he's good enough in LF to hold it down as long as Sano is still here at 1B. My preference is to have DH be more of an open spot this year, with Arraez getting a solid chunk of time there to keep his bat in the lineup but otherwise rotating Sano, Sanchez, Kirilloff, Miranda and whomever else needs ABs while getting a day off in the field. I'm a big fan of Kirilloff and I think if he's healthy he's going to have a pretty big year at the plate. The projection systems have a reasonable read on him, but he's someone I would bet the over on. I really believe in his talent.