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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    This is going to be an interesting aspect to chart this year. A quick look at SD suggest that while they weren't running out a bunch of great defenders, they weren't garbage either. Healthy the Twins should be strong up the middle with two elite defensive players manning two of the most important defensive positions in baseball. We should have good defense at 3B (Urshela is quality, Arraez is ok) and in RF (Kepler is very good) and below average defense in LF & 1B (Kirilloff & Sano are acceptable out there but not good). Jeffers is a good defensive catcher and should see most of the time. So I think it's fair to say the twins defense should be better behind Paddack this year than SD's was. If his luck improves and the defense is better, then maybe that FIP number comes home. If it does, people are going to be happy, because he'll be pitching more like Berrios than Happ. the projection systems are a little harder to read on Paddack this year because most of them have him pitching out of the bullpen for most of the year. Fangraphs definitely likes him, though: his fWAR in 2021 was better than any Twins starter not named Jose berrios. (I will admit, I tend to prefer bWAR and Paddack was...not good under that measure. But I do think that fWAR is better at predicting future performance than it is at describing what the results were because of how they formulate it...which is promising for Paddack for 2021 performance) Kind of a long-winded statement that comes down to "I hope Szymborski is right"
  2. jmlease1
    Moran and Minaya are two relievers I like to come up when needed. I think both are quality options (I was a little surprised we were able to keep Minaya after dropping him from the 40-man, because he was excellent last season for the Twins (and was a quality reliever for the ChiSox in 2018-19 as well). Good start to the season for Miranda and Lewis. Hope they crush it!
  3. jmlease1
    Gods above, thinking about a potential deadline deal before game 1 of the season? That's incredibly pessimistic about a team that's got a quality lineup and a load of young talent in the system. Do you want the Vikings to punt on first down too?
  4. jmlease1
    Second half of the season the twins 'pen was quality. Overall, it wasn't great because it got off to a horrendous start. but it also shows just how fungible most relief pitchers are. Look at Pagan: in 2017 he was excellent. in 2018, he was below average. In 2019, he was lights out. In 2020, he was below average. In 2021, he was poor. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him turn in an ERA+ of 120-140 this season. Colome was great right up until he wasn't for half a season, where he suddenly turned into Ron freakin' Davis on us. And then he was fine again. It's why a lot of us agree with the philosophy of not spending big money on relievers. Paying big money will "win" you off-season awards and the prediction game, but won't necessarily build you a good bullpen. I liked Rogers, and I was happy we brought him back. But I'm ok with dealing relievers for starters. And I'm not too worried about having enough lefties in the bullpen: Thielbar is quality, Coloumbe was quality last year, and Moran is coming up through the system. If Paddack bounces back, this is a great trade for the twins. If he doesn't, it was a reasonable risk. the thought process is sound here, IMHO. (Look, if every bet the front office makes goes wrong, then you have to reassess, even if the thought process was sound, but so far that's not really the case. YMMV on whether they've had enough of those bets go right, but if you're going to make the assessment, then make sure you count all of them, not just the ones you hated)
  5. jmlease1
    Nothing? I'm sorry, if you think prospects have no value then you've lost your mind. Manaea cost quality prospects. Rogers is an excellent pitcher and fine reliever for the back of the bullpen, but starters simply have more value. Someone like Paddack who is under team control for 3 more seasons, who has shown real success? there's a lot of value there if we get him back on track. he definitely makes us less reliant on Dylan Bundy being good, and there's a lot in his peripherals to suggest that he can make that return to form. The real question Wes Johnson is going to have to attack is Paddack's fastball: it's gone from being a weapon to something that guys are teeing up on, so the question is: does he need to get a little more velocity on it or locate it better? (or both?) Can wes coax something additional out of the fastball, because the changeup looks to be a quality weapon for him. The curve is definitely less reliable, so it'll be interesting to see how his command on that evolves. But Paddack is a talented pitcher with a good pedigree at a good price and the potential to be a solid and reliable arm. The last 2 seasons haven't gone that well for him (which is why he's available), but the last two seasons have also been pretty weird. Hell, even this year hasn't gotten off to a normal start. I'll miss Rogers, but Paddack should help. I'm also glad we're moving on from rooker and getting something for him.
  6. jmlease1
    Solid list of over/unders? Buxton 26.5HR - I'm taking the over on this one. I'm betting on Buxton being healthy, and if he is, then he's going to clear 30 hrs in my book. It's a fair line, because you just don't know if he's going to get in enough games, but I'm feeling optimistic on the most exciting player finally getting that healthy year. Correa .280BA - I'll go the under on this one: high average isn't one of Correa's strength, though it's not like he's a piker or anything. Not an easy one, just a gut check that he's going to land somewhere around .270-.275 Correa 25.5HR - I'm taking the under on this one as well; I think he lands in the low 20's somewhere (and it'll be great), but I just don't feel like the Twins are lucky enough for him to have back to back career years. Hope I lose this one, huge. Sanchez 25.5HR - Tough one, because it's hard to know how many games he's going to play...but I'm going over. I think he's going to get enough run either behind the plate or at DH to clear this one. Sano 31.5HR - Another really tough number...but while I think the whole "he's reported in the best shape of his life" is a classic spring training nonsenseburger, I feel like he's better positioned to avoid the long slumps this year? I'm betting on 35 HRs for Sano, and for a lot of twins fans to forget every single one of them any time he has 3 Ks in a game. Gray 9.5W - I'll bet the over, even though pitcher wins are a dumb stat. I think the twins are good enough to get him there and I'm betting he's healthy enough to make at least 25 starts. Twins 81.5W - I'll bet the over on this one too. The rotation has plenty of questions to answer, but the depth is better. the lineup is playoff quality. I think the bullpen is underrated. This feels like a bounceback team that lands north of 85 wins to me. They were unlucky last year in terms of key injuries but also in that all of their coin flip acquisitions went south. I think they'll do better this year (I like the Archer acquisition; I'm less sanguine about Bundy, but last year we crapped out on both of those kinds of signings.) Bonus over/under from me: 60 or more games in MLB for Jose Miranda (I'm betting the over)
  7. jmlease1
    Lot of fun guys to be tracking in Saint Paul this season. I'd kind of forgotten about Cano as a relief prospect; he's a little wild, but has the stuff to get outs, so could be an option if he can get himself to a reasonable walk rate.
  8. jmlease1
    Does his fastball "stay on plane" though? every report I read on him and the in-game performance you see shows guys getting under it, which I wouldn't expect if it was coming in flat. His barrel rate is a little high, but the hard-hit % is better than average, so if he's able to keep that good control he showed (he's nicely below the MLB walk rate %, which is promising for a rookie even in a smaller sample) he looks primed to be a strong performer, especially as he continues to refine his off-speed offerings (primarily the slider and changeup, I think) which do a good job in changing the eye level of hitters. The statcast on Ryan is really interesting to look at (again, it's not a huge sample). Suggests that he has good command over the fastball and locates it well, the slider locates pretty well, but he still could refine his command on it, and his change has almost surprisingly good command at this point that he locates well. (the curve is definitely the one that needs more work; it's much more all over the place, even if the results were overall pretty good) But if he can continue to spot the change up down in the zone and hammer the fastball up while getting people to chase with the slider...that's a good formula. The deception in his fastball plays up when you're changing the batter's eye effectively with a good changeup or slider. I'll be interested to see if he throws the change to righties this season or the slider to lefties at all. he's got huge pitch splits on his off-speed pitches, and I always find that fascinating.
  9. jmlease1
    I'm generally a fan of the Twins philosophy for building a bullpen, because a lot of multi-year commitments for relievers aren't worth the cash, and outside the truly elite guys, there are huge numbers of relievers that are pretty fungible from season to season. I truly believe in giving young starters who have essentially crapped out from the rotation a chance to move into the bullpen as a way to keep the pipeline flowing, and avoiding paying pitchers significant premiums to be "closers". (I'd rather have our best relievers as firemen who slam the door on a team's best hitters in the late innings rather than holding our best guys back to pitch the 9th) Rogers has been excellent, and part of me is glad he got injured last season and didn't get traded at the deadline (though healthy he might have brought a fine return). He's as good a pitcher as anyone on the roster, and I'm very comfortable with him getting in any high-leverage spot. Duffey was still good last year even if he dipped from his spectacular performances of the previous couple of years; sign of things to come or does he revert back to form? YMMV, I guess. Thielbar has been excellent as a second lefty. Alcala is death to righties and has been improving against lefties. Duran is a beast; it'll be interesting if they class him with Jax and/or Winder to be a multi-inning reliever for the early part of the season or look to him to be more of a high-leverage back-end guy as the season goes on? Smith & Cotton look like quality veteran options, but will be easy to bump down or move on from if they fall apart. there are additional options in the minors in guys like Moran (whom I love with that changeup) or Minaya (who was good for the twins last season) I think the coaching staff will feel a little less bound by roles early in the season this year (they seemed to have locked in Colome as a traditional closer last season) which may also help them sift through their relief corps faster. But I think there's enough talent here to be a quality bullpen.
  10. jmlease1
    Bigger name, but I'm not sure Upton is better than Garlick as a platoon bat; Upton hasn't been a good player since 2018. I'm not sure I'd be all that excited about signing a 34 year-old OF who hasn't hit in several years. (Detroit really sold high on him; moved him while at an all-star level, then he had exactly 1 good season for the Angels before turning in 3 sub-replacement level outings. blegh)
  11. jmlease1
    He's 27. Other than a 7 game stretch in low-A where he was definitely older that his competition, he's never had a SLG% over .500 in his pro career. Last season in AAA was easily his best year as a pro and it's not really all that close. He might be a useful minor league depth option, but he's going to struggle to find a spot on the 40-man without serious injury to other guys who are up the depth chart from him, which limits his ability to get a shot in MLB. Larnach is younger with a stronger overall track record; it would take a lot of recency bias to put Contreras over him on any depth chart. Hard to see him coming up this year without Kepler/Kirilloff landing on the 60-day IL and Larnach struggling in AAA.
  12. jmlease1
    A very good point. Despite a significant injury to Garver, the Twins still only used Rortvedt for 34 games and 94 PAs as a catcher last season. While I do believe that a great way to raise the floor of your team and capture additional wins is to give as few innings to bad players as possible, 3rd catcher does appear to be one of those areas where a) it probably doesn't hurt you that much, and 2) there aren't all that many innings for it to suck up. I know a lot of people are down on Sanchez as a catcher and have pre-emptively decided that he should never play back there for fear of frightening the horses or something, but it may be a bit overstated. It's only been in the last 2 years that the struggles have really gotten bad, and it's certainly possible that the focus from the loud and populous NY media and fans may have messed with his head.
  13. jmlease1
    Rooker crushes AAA pitching. (he did it in 2019, he did it in 2021) He got waxed against MLB pitching in 2021, hurt or not. he looks increasingly like a AAAA player: too good to sit in AAA but not skilled enough to play in MLB. His performance in 2020 really doesn't count: 7 games late in the season doesn't really tell you anything other than dude had a good week.
  14. jmlease1
    Honestly, this doesn't make much sense to me. If the wave of prospects we have moving along right now all graduate to the MLB club this season, then it's cause for celebration and we're not going to worry about whether we have a dip in minor league depth. If several of them aren't ready in 2022, then they're at the top of the list for 2023, along with the A & AA-ball guys that should be advancing. It's not like we're going to give up on Josh Winder if he struggles in his first year in MLB and ends up spending a good chunk of the year at AAA. From a prospect perspective, we're in solid shape where we have a significant wave of prospects arriving around the same time; the risk to our system is if too many of these guys bust all at once. but 2023 isn't where the "problem" is: it's 2024, and only if 80% of these guys flame out on us. If only 1 of Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, Woods-Richardson, Sands, Strotman, and Enlow makes it as an MLB starter in the next two seasons, we're in trouble. If three of these guys graduate from prospect to rotation (along with Ryan & Ober), then...we're insulated. If Martin, Lewis, Miranda, Steer and Wallner all fall down while neither Kirilloff or Larnach seize jobs...then yeah, we're in trouble. (since Miller, Cavaco, Soularie, and Urbina all look a little farther off) but this is the way it always is for small to mid-market teams: if guys don't develop and graduate into being quality starters and you don't develop any all-stars internally...then yeah, you're in trouble. but I'm not worried about whether guys use up their rookie eligibility, I'm worried about whether or not they're quality players. If they do, then it's easy enough to supplement your roster with a free agent or two to fill in holes where you don't have prospects (catcher and SS being the hardest).
  15. jmlease1
    I do think we have to develop our pitching pipeline internally to have long-term success. And I feel much more strongly about the guys that are lined up to go this year than last year from that young crop of pitchers. Last year, we were hoping that Dobnak was for real, Thorpe could put it together, Smeltzer was ready as being some of the top depth guys along with Duran (who was the only guy who really looked like he had the big upside). I feel more strongly about Winder, Canterino, Balazovic, & Woods-Richardson than I did about Dobnak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer. We will see. If this whole next wave of pitchers flame out, then everyone is probably going to get fired, if not this year than next. If 2-3 of this next group of 8-10 (and I'm counting Ober & Ryan as "graduated") become rotation fixtures before the end of 2023...then the team is probably in good shape.
  16. jmlease1
    Gedoy...Sisco...Rortvedt...probably not a ton of difference between them? Maybe Sisco will show he can hit enough to be a good backup/platoon partner to Jeffers. Stash Sisco in AAA and see what happens. I'm on the "dump Rooker for Garlick" train; we know Garlick can mash on lefties if he's healthy and is decent enough in the corners. Rooker hasn't shown he can hit anything, is rotten in the OF, and is old enough that his remaining options don't really mean all that much. Coulombe was a guy I was happy stayed in the organization. He was solid last season and makes for a nice lefty option if they weren't ready to hand the slot to Moran (who I remain high on). I suspect he might not stick when rosters go back down to 26, but he's a useful middle inning reliever.
  17. jmlease1
    Ugh, way too many pitchers on the opening day roster projections. Having a 10 man bullpen is ridiculous, truncated spring training or not, and the possibility of only having a 3 person bench is simply wrong. Even if we're going with a lot of "5 and fly" starts this season, we just don't need this many pitchers, especially if they're planning on getting someone like Winder regular work of more than 1 inning at a time (which they need to be or he should be in Saint Paul).
  18. jmlease1
    I'm fine with Ryan getting tapped to start Opening Day. While it may be seen as a Holy Day to many baseball fans, it's still just another start. I'm guessing they wanted to make sure Gray had enough time to get stretched out and be ready, and the off-day immediately after opening day probably helps that a bit. And the way the schedule lines up, we don't need Archer to jump in as the 5th starter right away if he's not ready. I'm a big fan of Ryan and the trade was a great one. I think the thing to watch with him this year is how much damage he can limit on the home run, because he's going to give up some. If he can keep the HR/9 around 1.4 and the BB/9 around 2.5 I think he's going to have a nice season and lock himself in as a mainstay in the rotation. But we need those dingers to be solo shots rather than 2 or 3 run blasts. He certainly gets Ks and his secondary pitches were better than advertised, IMHO. Looking forward to seeing who can barrel up on that water polo fastball, 'cause I think he's going to win a lot of matchups.
  19. jmlease1
    Rooker is an example for why you can't get too excited about a guy after 7 games. Why you have to be careful about taking late season results as evidence for future performance. He might be a bit better than the guy we saw last year...but he's 27 and the odds of him having a sudden breakout seem small. He's a bad defender in the OF, doesn't really play 1B (although he could probably learn) and his ceiling is a poor man's Adam Dunn. I rooted for him, and when he connected those moonshots were super fun to watch...but he's a AAAA player, I think. If they waive him, he's got decent odds of passing through unclaimed.
  20. jmlease1
    This. I'm fine with Cave being a "break glass" option stashed in AAA for if Buxton is on the 60-day IL, Celestino is struggling, Gordon is looking rough, and Martin isn't ready. But he doesn't belong on the opening day roster or the 40-man. I'd probably go Garlick over Rooker at this point too, because this team can win now and carrying a guy like Rooker and hoping he'll start making contact and not chasing any half-decent slider isn't a bet to be made. I have no illusions about who Garlick is, but he can mash up on lefties and would make a fine platoon partner for Kepler or could be used to protect Kirilloff on occasion. Not sure there's any need to add any of these pitchers to the 40-man; hard to say they're clear upgrades (I'd bring Duran north for sure over any of them) and if you need another lefty in the bullpen there's Moran sitting right there with his evil changeup.
  21. jmlease1
    There's really no reason you shouldn't expect Polanco to have an all-star caliber season, except for the assumption that Twins fans can't have nice things. He's coming off a great season, he's playing his best position and locked in there (with an all-star locked in next to him), he's in the prime of his career, he was healthy last season...if he's an "If" then I don't know where you find certainty.
  22. jmlease1
    Moran is not a LOOGY, though: his changeup makes him effective against righties too. His issue is whether or not he can control things well enough to not issue a million walks. I think he's got a bright future and personally i would have him in the bullpen to start the year (especially if we carry 14-15 pitcher), but I wouldn't limit him to just going after the toughest of lefties. He's got more than that. (and I looooove his changeup.)
  23. jmlease1
    Fair. They're pretty comparable a the plate but I do think Wallner has better odds of being functional in RF. The arm is excellent and he probably moves better than Rooker? This is an interesting year for Wallner: he did well last season in high A, but was essentially a year behind because of the pandemic. I'm never entirely sure where to place the AFL, but I usually think of it as around AA in terms of competition? And Wallner did great there, even with the barrage of Ks. We may not know if Wallner can make enough contact to be a quality bat until (if?) he gets to MLB. So far Rooker has not been able to adjust and is facing his last chance here at 26. For me there's no reason to move on from kepler after this year unless it's a really good deal; I'm fine with running him out there for the next two seasons and enjoying his defense while hoping beyond hope that he adjusts a little better at the plate. I also tend to look at the corner OF spots as one position with two slots, rather than strictly defining it as RF/LF. Maybe 2023 is Kepler & Larnach as the prime pair, with Martin as depth. Maybe it's Martin & Kepler, with Celestino as the depth guy? 2024 could be Wallner & Larnach, with Martin as a 4th OF who gets plenty of time playing all over. we're not as deep as we might like in guys who are locked in or rising up as sure things, but the cupboard isn't bare either.
  24. jmlease1
    At a certain point it stops being luck and it starts being who you are as a player. Kepler has been banging way too many balls into the shift and had too much weak contact for his current approach at the plate. He's still not a terrible player: it's decent (if frustrating) offense coupled with quality defense and some positional flexibility that makes him a solid starter...but he's no longer showing much in the way of star potential. (Bonnes is probably right: banning the shift will help him to some degree) Looking at his Savant numbers and there really isn't that much red...more like pink. His StatCast hasn't had any red on it for years. He doesn't have any blue on him, but he's also missing a lot of the deep red that shows up for really impactful players. Kepler is worth what he's being paid, but unless he makes some adjustments, this is who he is as a hitter. I suppose Rooker is still depth for the team at RF for now? He's not a great OF at either corner, but he can survive out there if he's hitting (which I don't expect much from that end either at this point; he doesn't make enough contact for his prodigious power to play, so again: make the adjustment Mr. Rooker or you will not be long for the roster). There's some good options coming up for RF in the system (Wallner & Rosario both have real potential) but it's a little thin right now. I suspect it would be a shuffle of Kirilloff to RF and Larnach to LF, but maybe they'd try Larnach there straight up.
  25. jmlease1
    The comments on the bullpen in this thread are proof positive of how firmly first impressions can get set in cement. The bullpen for the second half of the season did fine, even after losing Rogers to injury. And that group was cobbled together on the fly, so why exactly are people so down on the bullpen? Right now, it looks like we have a decent set of options to start the season, and the pecking order is going to play itself out as guys rise and fall. (except probably for Rogers, who is arguably the team's best pitcher, but even guys like him can have down years) I still don't expect this team to have strictly defined roles (i.e., Rogers is the "closer" and pitches the 9th in save situations, Duffey is an 8th inning set-up man, etc). I think they're going to play matchups and use their best relievers against a team's best hitters. More firemen, less strict roles. And that's a good thing, IMHO. there's nothing sacred about the 9th inning. And some of this is going to depend on what they expect out of Jax & Duran: are they going to be expected to be multi-inning relivers or more like 1 inning guys? I suspect the former. Duran has the stuff to be a late-game, high-leverage pitcher, but the twins probably haven't given up entirely on him starting, so may want to use him in longer stints in his first year in MLB. Feels like they have enough bodies to cycle through as they decide how they want to deploy pitchers. It might be nice to have one more RHP with extra velocity in his arsenal, but I feel pretty good about the overall group and their ability to get outs.
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