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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Zack Greinke is interesting. Feels a bit like a boom/bust candidate? Is the drop-off this season due to him finally getting old, or is he going to have a bounceback season for someone and be a really nice starter again? He's been successful before without a huge K rate, but should we be more alarmed that in a season where everyone was striking out a million times his rate dropped sharply? Lot of veteran savvy and know-how for guys like Ober/Ryan and the rest of the young guys who are going to get some chances...but also might just be, you know...old. He does seem to know how to stay healthy. If something higher tier doesn't present itself he's someone I would study and evaluate really hard. but I'll admit to a bias: I've always liked him and I'm a huge fan, even if he's been with the damn cheatin' Astros the last 2 1/2 seasons.
  2. jmlease1
    Excellent reminder on the fungibility of relievers. I'm not interested in giving relievers in their mid-to-late 30's long term deals (3+ years), and I'm really not interested in giving them those deals while paying a premium for a "proven closer". Would I like the Twins to sign a good RHP for the bullpen for next season? yes indeed. But I'd rather get 2 years of a guy like Trevor May for $6-8M per than fling $12-15M at a Kenley Jackson or Craig Kimbrel for 2-3 years and pray they don't collapse.
  3. jmlease1
    I like celestino's chances as a 4th OF who plays a fair amount; the D looks to be quality and I think he'd be able to manage LF just fine in addition to being good in CF and RF. Agree with roger above that as constructed right now, he's an excellent fit as a potential 4th OF because of Kepler/Kirilloff & even Larnach as OF options for this team. (at this point, I don't know that i need to see Max kepler try and hit lefties much longer) All of this presumes that he won't be overwhelmed in his next shot at the majors, but the way he rebounded in AAA speaks very well of him and his chances. Some guys go into a tailspin after experiencing that level of failure, even if they know they're being thrown in long before they should be. celestino took the demotion down to AAA and finished the season very strong. he may never be a 20-30 HR guy, but if he's smacking 30+ doubles a year with 10+ HRs that's enough slugging to get it done if the OBP is also in the .350 range. I think he'll draw enough walks to be effective. The only problem with his being right-handed is with Austin Martin rising behind him, but that's an ok problem to have. I think celestino gets a good chance to be the 4th/5th OF next year out of spring training.
  4. jmlease1
    Absolutely correct. Especially for guys in A-ball where even if they have an already top line breaking pitch the command will almost always need work. A-ball pitchers are are funny. It's easy to get super excited about a guy and just as easy to find 5 reasons why they're not going to make it. I feel like the jump to AA is a big delineator for pitchers: it's harder to simply overwhelm guys with stuff, the hitters have a more advanced approach and won't chase nearly as much, and the hitters have also been exposed to a lot more quality pitching and aren't getting surprised as easily. The age range tends to smooth out a bit too: few teenagers (if any) and more bunching around 23-25. (Wichita's average age was 24.7) If Varland kicks butt in AA, I'm going from intrigued and hopeful to really excited in a big hurry.
  5. jmlease1
    Great season for Varland. Looking forward to seeing how he does next year at AA; it can be a big leap. If Varland thought there was a big difference between hitters in in high-A laying off pitches out of the zone, just wait until he sees more advanced guys in AA! It'll be interesting to see how his stuff plays and if he can continue to hunt up K's like he did in A-ball. He's definitely a candidate to get the quick promotion to AA: by age, performance, and development he looks ready.
  6. jmlease1
    are you just trolling in every thread now? Jeffers is a far superior defensive catcher by basically any possible metric, including the eye test. Astudillo got few chances at catcher this year because the Twins know he's not really any good back there. (Jeffers, even through his struggles, was a more valuable hitter at catcher as well) Astudillo is a fun player and obviously a likable guy, but he's not any kind of solution at catcher and doesn't hit or defend enough to deserve a spot on the 40-man, let alone the MLB roster.
  7. jmlease1
    I'm a Trevor Story fan. I'd love to add him to this team at anything resembling a semi-reasonable price, especially if Buxton doesn't get extended/is traded. (I love Buxton and desperately want him on this team, but I recognize that might not go) He's a fine defensive SS who can swing the bat and I expect his home/road splits might normalize a bit once he gets clear of Coors. I think he's going to be worth at least 12-18 bWAR over the next 4 years and how many seasons of 3-4 bWAR have we compiled at SS in the last decade? (It's 1.) I'm in on Story. I think he'd be a nice fit, he's a bit of a "buy low" candidate right now, but even if this is who he is going forward...there's a lot of value there.
  8. jmlease1
    I'm in on #1: I like Ryan a lot and while I think he's going to have some bumps along the way, I also think he will be a very good starter. The off-speed stuff looked better than advertised and the fastball plays. Do I think he's going to be contending for the Cy year-in and year-out? No, but could he be a dependable starter who gets a little all-star love in a good season and never really has a bad one? I think so. I have no idea how anyone defines "front-line starter" or "ace" or any of that any longer. I'm out on #2: Just not sure Jax has the stuff to be impactful at the MLB level. Maybe his fastball ticks up if he moves into a full-time relief role and plays up a bit more...but I wouldn't see him as anything more than a long man in the bullpen at this point, and that's not going to have a significant impact. I would love to be wrong? I'm in on #3, though I don't think it's going to be at 1B for at least another season. I'm all in on Kirilloff's hit tool if he can stay healthy. He's good great bat skills, makes great hard contact, and I think he understands the strike zone (it's just hard to lay off a pitch when you know you can still hit it). I see a lot of line drives in his future and I'm happy to see him start in one of the corners next season. I'm out on #4,,.for now. Not because I don't like Royce Lewis, not because I've already decided he's not a SS...just think that despite his talent it'll take him half a season at least to knock off the rust and get up to game speed. but I still like Royce.
  9. jmlease1
    Wallner is probably the only real prospect here. The rest look like "show us something, kid' guys. Hopefully Wallner works on cutting down his Ks; if he can drop that down a bit while doing damage when he makes contact, he's got a chance. he does draw walks at least.
  10. jmlease1
    I think people have pretty well covered the Simmons issue, lol. (I'm in agreement: his defense was worth, his offense was too putrid to be allowed near a twins lineup again, etc) I'm a 100% no on signing Cruz, much as I loved him as a player here. Age is undefeated. Eventually it gets all of us, and as special as Cruz is, he's going to hit that wall too and I'd rather not be holding the bag when it does since he's already off the team (and we got spectacular value for him). We've got plenty of guys worth rotating through the DH spot, so I'd rather keep it open to ensure that someone like Arraez has a spot to hit in, Donaldson can take a break without losing us his bat, Kirilloff can take some reps at 1B without Sano being forced to take a seat, etc. Better chances of keeping some of these hitters healthy and productive, while still giving opportunities to young guys like Miranda too. Beyond that, he's going to command $10M if the NL adds the DH easily, and I'd rather spend that on pitching/SS. I loved the Boomstick. Great guy, great signing, great player...but this would sadly be a reunion that i think would end in tears rather than cheers.
  11. jmlease1
    Will you come back an apologize when he doesn't sign a long-term deal with Toronto this off-season? Berrios wants to test free agency, and has made that clear. They didn't trade him because he wanted a market-rate deal; they traded him because the only way to lock him up long term was to offer something well above market rate, otherwise they were risking him going elsewhere for nothing. We have an excellent chance to compete in 2022 if we can add the right pitching moves and at least one of about 5 quality pitching prospects steps forward. The lineup is good enough to compete. The idea the franchise has "no belly to spend" is a canard: did you forget Josh Donaldson? Coming off an excellent season they spent significant money to take an very good lineup and try to make it a great one. But never let reality get in the way of a chance to call the Pohlads cheap or the front office incompetent...
  12. jmlease1
    I would have loved to have a real debate between a healthy Kirilloff and Ober for RoY. shame about that wrist injury and I really hope it doesn't chase him throughout his career, because he can really hit. but Ober is the easy choice and looks like he's got a nice future starting games for the twins.
  13. jmlease1
    Honestly, it comes down to whether the change-up is for real, a pitch that he can throw for strikes (or get hitters to chase) so that he doesn't get his brains kicked in by lefties. he was death against righties this year: clearly his fastball/slider mix works great against them and he can hurl both effectively. His problems was entirely against left-handed hitters this year, where while they didn't get tons of hits, when they did they hit the ball a looooong ways. I'm excited about Alcala for next year. Despite how bad the bullpen started the year, it was pretty solid by the end of the year and if Taylor Rogers is back and healthy, I'd feel pretty good about this bullpen if they signed one more good right-handed arm.
  14. jmlease1
    Probably a B- for me? Maybe C+, if I'm feeling really ornery. I'm of the opinion that managers get too much credit when the team does well and too much blame when the team does poorly most of the time. I mean, here's my grades for Rocco's three seasons: 2019: B/B+. team played hard all year, seemed to come together and be a pretty close-knit group, few objectively awful tactical decisions, some lineup/bullpen useage that seemed sub-optimal at times, but overall did well as a rookie manager. 2020: B+/A-. With the pandemic, it was just harder in almost every possible way to run a baseball team, so the fact that the Twins did well again, you have to give him some credit for keeping the team together and focused. 2021: B-/C+. not much worked this year, but injuries and FO roster decisions takes some of this out of Rocco's hands. Took too long to find solutions in the bullpen, and some of that is on him. not giving Maggi some field time or an AB is an unforced error that's small potatoes but a bad look, continuing to play Jake Cave late in the year seemed like misplaced loyalty. but the injuries and poor performance were what killed this squad, not the manager. he's...fine. i think staffing up will help (Mike Bell was missed), but bounceback performances and a less awful start to the year will make him look a lot better. I mean, we had a stretch in April where the team went 2-13.
  15. jmlease1
    I really appreciate the graphs here, but wish the progression on the X-axis were reversed. I think most people read left to right, lowest to highest naturally in English so when I looked at that first exit velocity graph I thought "so, Rooker's below average" before spotting that he was actually on the high side of the curve.
  16. jmlease1
    I think the Twins have more interest in Gant as a reliever, but he's been starting for us because we're short on other options. Agree that Jax likely doesn't have it as a starter either.
  17. jmlease1
    Jinx!
  18. jmlease1
    This is why the only position player spot I want us making a FA signing in is SS. we have options to fill out what can be an excellent lineup. 4th OF could be a competition between Celestino and Martin, both of whom can play CF effectively and would provide superior D in the corners if they slot over there. both are RH, which makes them good options to back up Kepler and Kirilloff. I'd like to see 13 guys at the position slots: OF: Buxton, Kepler, Kirilloff, Celestino/Martin Corner INF: Donaldson, Sano, Miranda Middle INF: FA SS, Polanco, Arraez, Gordon Catcher: Garver, Jeffers Then you mix it up at DH with Donaldson, Arraez, Miranda, any OF that needs a day off in the field, etc, Kirilloff can get some time at 1B and give Miranda time out in the OF. Should be enough ABs to go around. Larnach and whichever of Celestino/Martin doesn't win the battle in spring training are the first two OF bats to call up, and Martin could move around into the infield if needed. Maybe you let Gordon be depth in AAA (he has an option left) and make sure you have a better defender backing up SS. There's room for Miranda when you dump Jake Cave & Astudillo's ABs.
  19. jmlease1
    I'd bring him back. He's pitched well for the team, likes it here, is well-liked by the franchise, and could probably be had on a 1-2 year deal for a pretty reasonable price. (1 year at $8M?) He'd be good to help bridge time with the younger starters coming along. If you plan for him to only throw 100-150 innings, you should be fine.
  20. jmlease1
    i think there's room to get Miranda reps regardless: Donaldson is going to get some reps at DH, likely miss some time due to injury/rest, and there's going to be reps available in both corner OF spots and at DH as well. Kirilloff is going to likely get a starting spot, but Miranda fits well as a bench bat who can play multiple spots. but good lord, can we stop putting out any articles on next year's lineup that have Polanco playing extensive time at SS? It is literally never going to happen, absent massive injuries to: a FA signing at SS (almost certain to happen), Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, even Nick Gordon, etc. The Twins want Polanco at 2B. Of course they do: he's an all-star there and it looks like he can stay healthy there too. I swear, any article that has "if the Twins slide Polanco over to SS..." in it is automatically invalid. Please stop. Polanco is a poor defensive SS, the position appears to negatively impact his health, the Twins have repeatedly shown they don't want him playing SS full-time, and he's an elite player at 2B. Trying the slot Polanco in at SS is a strat-o-matic play, not real baseball.
  21. jmlease1
    not a great outing by Ryan (sure started well, though). Makes me wish he had another start or two this year to see if it was a blip or guys starting to figure some things out against him, but I guess we'll have to wait until next year to find out. With Goodrum being the one that did most of the damage, I'm inclined to think it's a blip: Niko Goodrum is not a particularly good hitter. I've been on the "Sign Buxton" train all year, injuries or no. I think we need him, and I think we should want him, I think we should pay him. These games won't change my opinion on that one way or the other: he's a great player when healthy. And there's frankly no way to know for sure if he'll be healthy enough to put together the MVP seasons he's capable of. But I think he's special enough to be worth the risk. I love the guy and I want him patrolling CF for the MN twins.
  22. jmlease1
    No on Polanco playing SS. He's an all-star at 2B, giving fantastic offense and above average D. Moving him to SS really weakens the D, especially if you slot in Arraez/Miranda or even Gordon (who would be the best of the three there but is still not as good defensively as Polanco), and that's ignoring the likelihood that playing SS again will have negative impacts on Polanco's health and offense. but more importantly, no matter how many times fans bring it up, the front office has made it very clear they want Polanco at 2B and they don't see him as a full-time SS. So can we stop wasting time on this? I'm happy to see the back of Simmons; the offense is dreadful and he's slipped enough on D to not make him worth the scratch. He's still good on D, but too stinky at the plate now. I do think it's likely that he has a bit of a bounceback on offense next season; this year has been a career worst and it's not even close, so it wouldn't shock me at all if next year he was closer to 2019 Simmons on offense (which would have been a satisfactory season here too), but he's not worth making the bet that he's going to hold his defensive value and improve his offense while paying him anything of significance, especially with so many other options. Just a note: the article is incorrect on Austin Martin: he has played SS since joining Wichita; his splits were 20 at CF, 16 at SS, and 1 at DH. Can he stick there? I'd say it's less likely than Lewis, but it's still not outside of the realm. Personally, I'd love to get Trevor Story and I hope everyone forgets about him but us...his defense is very good, he can hit, and we might be able to buy a little low on him. (probably not, but he's a player I'd be happy to go in on.)
  23. jmlease1
    Scrub-level? tell us how you really feel about him. (PS: he ain't scrub level) Sano's trade value hasn't changed that much because sluggers with limited positional flexibility are relatively easy to find, but also because outside of the elite players they can have a fair amount of variance year to year. If a team was confident that second-half Sano is who he's going to be next season, they might be interested, but the risk of inconsistency weighed against his contract is going to be too high for most teams. Basically, no one is going to trade for Sano at $9.25M with a $2.75M buyout if they can get CJ Cron for $7M total. or if they can sign someone like Cron at league minimum on a make-good contract like the Rockies did this year with Cron. That's the fundamental problem we have in dealing Sano: last off-season someone like Cron was available for basically nothing. And there's almost always going to be that guy on the market...but it's a guessing game as to which one pans out. Sano had such a rough start (and played pretty poorly last year) that it feels like opinions have hardened on him. There's a lot of people in Twins Territory for whom he will probably never be able to do enough to satisfy, because he's never going to hit .300, and he's never not going to have 150+ Ks. But second-half Sano, or 2017 Sano, or 2019 Sano is a dangerous force in the lineup. Kinda feels like a lot of people have already decided that he's going to be 2018 or 2020 Sano in 2022.
  24. jmlease1
    Varland is a fine choice, i think. He's had an excellent and healthy year, making him the rare Twins pitcher to hit that double. Sands was equally good at a higher level, but I think it's fair to ding him a little for the lack of innings pitched; Varland only got one more start but threw 20 more innings. That's a fair delineator, IMHO. The winners of this award show it's not easy to translate minor league success into MLB prosperity, though. Stephen Gonsalves only made the majors this year because the BoSox had a huge run of injuries/covid problems; he didn't make it on merit. Hermsen was out of baseball 2 years after winning the award. Didn't enjoy being reminded of Tyler Wells, though. Would rather see him pitching for the twins right now than Charlie Barnes, frankly. But I do understand why the Twins exposed him in the Rule 5: didn't pitch in 2019 at all and only had 6 games above A-ball when the O's took him...you'd hope someone would take a pass. But that's the reality on Rule 5: bad teams can grab a guy like that and throw him in the bullpen for a year and hope. twins are going to have several of those tough calls again this year.
  25. jmlease1
    It's interesting how a season can finish up. Two months ago we were talking about how the Twins needed to completely overhaul the entire pitching staff, might need 4 new starters and major reinforcements in the bullpen. Now? Neither the rotation nor the bullpen looks nearly as dire. Ober & Ryan look like guys who can be counted on for next year. Pineda is also a guy that likes it here, is well-liked by the team and could be signed at a reasonable rate for next year. (1 year at $6M? 2 for $12M with bonuses?) Yes, you shouldn't go into a season counting on Pineda to be healthy the full year...but as a guy to pitch effectively and hold the line to keep from rushing prospects in before they're really ready? He makes a lot of sense. The same is on the bullpen: Duffey seems to have found his form again, Alcala has been excellent in the second half of the season, Thielbar has been terrific and the peripherals back up the gaudy W-L record, and if Taylor Rogers is back...maybe that's the core of a solid bullpen that gets augmented by a couple of internal options (Moran, Stashak, Coloumbe) and only needs 1-2 FA signings (best RH power arm they can find?) instead of needed a total overhaul. The offseason overhaul maybe already happening? I hope they can work out a deal with Buxton in the offseason. He's got star power, he wants to be here...and it's a bet worth taking. The last week or so of the season won't change my mind on this, even if he went 0-30.
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