jmlease1

Why? He's a quality player with the worst luck I've seen in a while. Gordon was playing about as well as Arraez in 2019 at AAA when he got hurt and missed a window for a call-up. He got COVID last year and never had a chance to show anything in games for 2020. everything about him shows a floor as a utility guy in MLB with an upside as a hitter. If he's cut off the 40-man, he'll get snapped up immediately. Smeltzer or Anderson at least have a chance to slide through waivers; Smeltzer is a classic back of the 40-man guy (some upside, reasons to have hope he might figure it out, but not a great track record of success in the majors/red flags in his MLB performance), and Anderson is a reliever with control issues who ain't 22 any longer. I'd cut Smeltzer, who right now looks like he's 10th or so in line to start a game for the Twins right now (Donak is currently 6th, followed by some combination of Thorpe, Duran, and Balazovic...but even Ober might jump ahead of Smeltzer if the injury parade really crushed the starters)

Only going to happen if there's an injury, and then you'll see a call up from AAA. I highly doubt the Twins plan to rest Simmons and Donaldson on the same day. A Rooker/Cave platoon could be very productive, and Rooker has earned the chance. Maybe MLB pitching will figure him out and he won't make enough contact to stick, but so far so good, so we'll see what happens when he gets out of SSS territory. And if he fails, guys like Kirilloff and Larnach are waiting in the wings. The best part of this roster projection? It doesn't have us carrying 14 %^$#$%*@#*% pitchers. (we do not need a 9 man bullpen. NO ONE needs a 9-man bullpen.)

I'm kinda bored with the "Twins lost 40% of their bullpen innings from last year!" concept as a cause for concern. They lost 1 arm they wanted to keep: May. Is anyone really mourning the loss of Romo (probably washed up, finally), Wisler (might be a one-hit wonder), or Clippard (ok, I wouldn't have minded bringing him back...but he's not young)? Robles is a veteran guy who either figures out how to get back on track...or is pretty easy to move on from. Colome is a high quality pitcher who perpetually induces weak contact and has plenty of experience in high leverage situations. Alcala looks ready to handle more. So it's awfully hard to say the Twins didn't replace what they lost, while having other options if/when some guys have a bounce in variance. There's a lot of quality arms in the 'pen and the Twins have shown under this regime that they know how to put together a pretty reliable relief corps, and do it without overspending on things like "a proven closer". I'd like to see fewer bullpen games as well; I'm not sure they're really to our advantage and I think we have enough starting pitching to stay out of that zone. I'm hoping it's less likely under a more normal schedule, too, but we'll see what injuries do.

It's been rare that we've had the kind of depth in starting pitching. There have been a lot of Twins squads in the last 20 years or so where we've really been scrambling to have more than a couple of guys that we could really count on. How many years were we relying on a Rick Reed to not fill out the back end of the rotation but to be the #2 starter? Or hoping and praying that Joe Mays would be consistently good? Or when we handed 31 starts to Carlos Silva and he gacked up an ERA of nearly 6? I like the depth here, and I like that guys aren't going to get rotation spots on scholarship. Compared to a lot of years, our 6th guy would have been a fixture as the #3...

Need a different title here: I believe Rocco when he says the Twins don't have a designated closer (and I think that's a good thing). Who will lead the team in saves is a different question than who will be the "closer". Who will be the closer? No one. Who will lead the team in saves? I'd bet on Colome, just because I think he's going to get the 9th more often. Taylor Rogers is going to be deployed in the 7th or 8th inning more often when you see a couple of LH hitters coming up close & late. I don't see any relievers on this team getting 40 saves, though and I'm not sure anyone will clear 30, just because you're not going to see a single guy held back to pitch the 9th in the LaRussa mode of "closers". This is good news to me.

I'm leaning towards starting Kirilloff from Day One, but I wouldn't cry about a short-term platoon of Cave/Rooker. I'd like to be able to keep Rooker's RH bat available. From a defensive perspective would it make more sense to have Kepler take over in LF, since he has significantly better range? (I have plenty of confidence in his ability to figure it out) Or is this one of those deals where in the end it probably doesn't matter that much? With Kepler in RF and Buxton in CF, you certainly could shade Buxton towards LF to protect Kirilloff without really giving up much... They way the hitters are moving up from the minors, the Twins should feel good about where they are at in terms of corner OF bats for a while. Larnach is really close too, but I still think they'll be able to find enough bats for everyone in 2022, since it seems unlikely Cruz comes back again, even if he keeps slappin' around Father Time.

Shoemaker's ability isn't really in question, it's his ability to stay healthy. His biggest inning total was in 2016 with 160...which is basically the sum of his innings pitched from 2017-2020. If he can stay on the bump, he's a very nice 4th starter with a bit of additional upside who should be able to chew through 5-6 innings pretty consistently and give the team a chance to win. And in this rotation he's the 5th guy so maybe the Twins can skip him occasionally to try and keep him healthy? I'm thinking that Kirilloff is going to get the starting nod in LF, which kinda puts the squeeze on Jake Cave. There's just less value in having a backup corner OF who hits the same side as your starters, and I'm not sure this team carries 5 OF. Arraez & Jeffers bench spots locked down. Personally, I'd have a 4-man bench rather than carry 14 freakin' pitchers, but you still have a hot competition between Rooker, Astudillo, Cave, and maybe Blankenhorn for those spots. (It's interesting: Cave & Blankenhorn hit lefty, Rooker & Astudillo hit righty...maybe you take Rooker & Cave and hope two INF don't get hurt in the same game?)

It's an interesting question. I lean towards Polanco, which then lets you drop kepler in 4th behind Donaldson & Cruz and in front of Sano to break up the righties a bit. You could then stick Garver in 6th, with Kirilloff 7th ahead of Buxton & Simmons on days when Arraez doesn't play. If you bat Kepler leadoff (and he does well at it, despite the low BA) then you're looking at a regular order of Donaldson, Cruz, Sano, Garver/Jeffers...which would scare the bejeezus out of a lefty but might be a set up for failure against the righties.

I love watching Buxton play so much, I hope they can work out a deal so he's here a long time. We will see? I think it does make a fair amount of sense for everyone to entertain it, so here's hoping!

2B is in good shape for the Twins for the next several years. Polanco will be fine there, Arraez will cover the games he doesn't play, and we've got Gordon & Blankenhorn to hold things down if there's an injury. Be interesting to see if they look to add some depth for the next wave in the draft in the next year or two; it's hardly an area of need in the next several years, but might be good to get someone coming along in the pipeline, but maybe one of the many SS they've drafted will end up making the shift too.

It will be very interesting to see how celestino's hit tool has progressed as this season goes along. His defense plays right now, but he's definitely a guy who can use as many ABs as we can throw at him as he works on refining his approach and recognition at the plate. With his speed, if he can get on base consistently he'll be a very valuable player and you can be patient in developing the power, especially as he seems to have good doubles potential to the gaps. rack up 30 doubles along with a few triples and a handful of dingers and that's enough slugging to have his bat play in CF if he gets on base. I don't think we see him in 2021 (I think he would have been a sept call-up in previous years, but with the change in rules on roster expansion, it's less likely) absent a major injury to Buxton and him hitting the lights out in the minors. But I like his attitude and his skill set and if he stays on this developmental path, that's looking like a fine trade for the twins.

Seems more likely that Garver will get a little time at 1B if they need to get Sano a day off right now unless Rooker makes the roster? I just don't see Arraez as being a good option there, seeing as how he's basically never played the position and is a pretty small dude. If Sano goes down for a significant period (i.e., actually hits the injured list) then you'll see Rooker/Kirilloff get in as a starter. I don't see any real problems for the Twins at 1B right now. Sano is looking good there right now and is locked in to a good contract. They've got guys who can drop into the position coming up in the minors, and if something significant happens after this year and for some reason Rooker/Kirilloff isn't an option and Sano is out of the picture...finding a 1B is pretty easy while they wait for Sabato or someone else to be ready. Hopefully, the Twins can minimize the bad stretches this year (return of video use might help there) for Sano and he can launch a ton of balls far into the sky.

We do not need 14 pitchers. We should not have 14 pitchers. Even with starters "easing in" it's just silly. Unless you're pulling pitchers out of the game in the 4th consistently, there's not going to be enough innings to keep guys in form and it's stupid to have a guy on the roster who only gets into a game once a week at best. Beyond that...a 3 man bench really shrinks the options. Whether it's Astudillo, Blankenhorn, or someone else...put another bat on the bench.

I don't understand this mentality. Trout is a generational player, an MVP candidate every year. He's put up 6 seasons that were worthy of winning and almost certainly lost out because his teams haven't been very good, even though he's been the best player in the game. You seem to be suggesting that if the Twins don't find the next Mike Trout, they're a failure. You realize that makes a failure every year out of basically every team in baseball? A Mike Trout doesn't come along every few years, finding one in all of MLB happens more like once in 20 years. "meh, who cares about finding an all-star...if they don't turn up a first-ballot Hall of Famer, a perennial MVP candidate, someone who is trying to be the second coming of Willie Mays...screw 'em." If your standard is, "first-ballot Hall of Famer"...expect to be disappointed A LOT.

Garver was battling injuries in 2020 and if you thrown in the weirdness of the pandemic (and small sample size) it's easy to forecast a pretty significant rebound. we don't need 2019 Garver for catcher to be a position of strength; even something closer to 2018 Garver on offense will be a quality asset. I think he'll be ok; it sounds like he's healthy now. Jeffers is great from a production standpoint; the only thing that isn't ideal with this pairing is there's no platoon advantage to add to the mix. But that's a small thing in the light of how bad most team's backup catcher is. Heck, Jeffers would start for a LOT of teams so splitting time like this really puts the team in good shape. Is there drop-off if we run into a bunch of injuries at catcher? Sure, but name me one team that isn't facing that. But even in that case, the Twins are in better shape than most teams; Astudillo can fill in and still add something on offense, Telis is a competent receiver, and Rortvedt is MLB ready on D right now...he just might be a classic no-hit catcher who gets on the field for D. Twins should probably commit another pick to the position in the next year or two to keep the pipeline going; you can never have too many catchers in development who can hit.

Is literally anyone talking like this? Buxton is clearly still considered an important part of the present & future, a guy they just want to be healthy. Kepler is signed to a long-term deal and they're committed there too. Cave is a 4th OF who is stretched in CF. No one is talking about dumping him, but it's eminently reasonable to think that he could be surpassed, but they chose him over Wade. I get there's hyperbole going on here, but I don't understand at all what the point is to it in an article about Brent Rooker who might get squeezed out of consistent MLB ABs because of his defensive limitations and quality players ahead of him. I like Rooker's RH bat on the bench, but I think it's fair to think they'll want/need a player with more positional flexibility coming out of camp. Seems most likely that he starts in AAA and comes up if/when there's an injury, but it's still possible that he could win an OF job in spring training, if he shows he can lay off breaking pitches sailing out of the zone. I'd give him as many ABs in spring training as I could against guys who throw that junk to see if he can handle it. I also hope the Twins don't go with 14 #@$*&$^% pitchers out of camp too; having a 3 man bench is stupid and even if starters are going 5 innings there's still not going to be enough innings for 9 flippin' relievers. Keep an extra bench spot, maybe Rooker can win it with that RH power swing.

It's also important to realize that just because someone signs with Boras it doesn't necessarily mean that he's really their primary guy, too. He's a big-time agent with a lot of clients...Kirilloff will get some attention but not undivided. The extensions before making their debut have a lot more value to guys who were lower draft picks. Kirilloff got a healthy signing bonus and it makes it easier to bet on himself. He also doesn't need to support his family. I think he's going to be a great, great hitter so I'd love to get him locked down and not have to deal with any arbitration games and hold him through at least 1-2 years of FA...but we'll see how it goes.

I'd love for Thorpe to figure it out. Lucky for the Twins to get that 4th option to work with him in Saint Paul this season; I would expect him to get 3-5 starts in MLB this season as guys miss time due to injuries. (Dobnak will be the first option out of AAA I think, then Thorpe (if he shows that he's got the velocity and mind-set right), then Duran) Guys are going to miss a turn, get dinged up. You'll need a guy for a double-header. It's just a reality that you need to run out 7-10 different guys to start a game in a full season...hopefully Thorpe can be one of them and set himself up to compete for a rotation spot in 2022

I guess it depends on how you evaluate him. He's projected as a 4th starter for a team that has DeGrom & Carrasco as their top 2; Stroman is probably slotted in as the #3 because he's been more consistently healthy...but is he really better? And if Syndergaard was healthy from the jump, he'd be their #2. So he's projected as a #3/4 guy for the Mets going into the season. Walker was also really good last year, but he substantially outperformed his FIP, so some people and measures are going to discount the success as a fluke...but he's also a pitcher who has outperformed his FIP pretty consistently and significantly. It's a little hard to project a guy like Walker who wasn't healthy for 2 years and then we had a small sample weird-ass season...there's not a lot that's current to project him on. Duran looks like he could be the better version of Walker: similar pitch mix, but with a staff that can unlock advantages for him earlier in his career, and hopefully he stays healthy. If that's the case, then he's a #2/3 on a good staff, not a 4/5.

He looks like a guy who just needs game innings to refine a third offering and get experience in mixing pitches to set up hitters. The talent is there. It will be interesting to see if the Twins have him focus on working on just one breaking ball this year to try and establish a solid 3-pitch mix. I'm guessing they'd work on the slider, partly because that seems to be an organizational preference, but also because it would probably work well with his other two pitches. While the slower curve could look really slow and throw people off against his hard stuff, it also might be a lot easier to detect. I'm really excited about Duran. I don't expect him to be a significant part of the rotation this season absent a ton of injuries, but he's on track to be a fixture in 2022 and that's fantastic. He could be really really good. At worst, he's a weapon in the bullpen, but he could be a feature in the top half of the rotation for years.

I loved Dozier as a Twin, was sad to see him go (even though it was the right decision at the time to deal him), but there's some classic ball player hilarity in his retirement statements. “It has nothing to do with the ability to play or my body or anything. I feel great and feel like I definitely can play a lot more, but it was a decision." reality is he was a shadow of the player he was from 2014-2017. he's retiring because age and injury have brought him down and no one was likely to offer him anything other than a minor-league deal at this point. Great player while he was going, and I'm really happy he got a ring with the Nationals. Hope he can find a place in baseball to do some coaching if that's what he wants. but retirement was coming whether he wanted it or not, I'm afraid.

What are the bad deals? You're clearly underrating the Maeda deal, for whatever reason: the twins dealt a reliever for a starter and said starter was awesome in his first season and has a contract that's incredibly team-friendly. While the Dodgers may have gotten what they wanted as well, it's still an excellent deal for the Twins by basically reasonable measure.

I'm really enthusiastic about balazovic and would be tempted to push him higher. I really think he could be a serious horse in the rotation. (I've also made it a goal to consistently pronounce his name right before the end of the season, gah) I'm really glad he was working in saint Paul last year, but it's a real shame he didn't get to face regular competition in minor league ball. But I think he could see Target Field in 2021.

I guess it comes down to whether you're looking at the roster as a collection of names/talent or as names/performance. From the former, then no...the Twins haven't done all that much to improve the roster, mostly just shuffled things around to fill some holes. They lost some talent, they patched in some other talent. From an expectation of performance...you could argue they're better positioned. If you get more healthy games from Buxton/Donaldson/Garver, then it's like adding a lot of talent from a production standpoint. Twins had a good offseason. they didn't have tons of holes to fill, but they also didn't make a big splash move. I do like the depth on this team a lot and some of the young talent might really get a chance to shine this year. should be a really fun team to watch and I'm looking forward to the games.

Cavaco is a tough one to rank. He's this high because of his tools, his youth, and his draft position. His professional performance has been miserable, but it's hardly enough ABs to be meaningful. I'd feel a lot more confident about where he is if he'd played a full year of pro ball. for all we know, he might go out and dominate this season. Or he might need every AB he can find to get his hit tool on track. I'd probably drop him a bit lower just because he may have been a bit of a reach as a pick and toolsy high school kids can need a longer development curve. Is he Wander Javier or Max Kepler? or does he just need a full year of pro ball and instruction to turn into a fast riser? cavaco has almost unlimited questions...but also has a ton of potential. I think 7 is high, but I get that there might not be a lot of significant different between being ranked 12 and being ranked 7, especially when you consider positional differences.