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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Vallimont is one of those fascinating prospects that's very much in the boom-or-bust category. If he figures out something that cuts down on the walks, refines his command, etc then he could be a monster. because someone who can hunt up K's like he does has the talent to make it to The Show. He's proven he can simply overwhelm A-ball hitters. Right now, against hitters with a more refined approach and better control of the strike zone, he's wobbling. Guys are waiting him out more often, either drawing the walk or sitting on the "get over" pitch that sails right through the middle of the zone. If he finds a level of command that lets him roll on AA guys like he did in A-ball, then at worst he's a relief option. He's not particularly homer-happy, but he needs to be able to drive the WHIP back down to find sustained success, and with his K's it doesn't really matter where he subtracts the baserunners from: fewer hits, fewer walks...don't care. He can handle a few baserunners with his ability to hunt up the K, he just can't handle this many. But he's interesting and worth watching. This is where good development can turn a flyer into a real prospect, and I'm fine with the twins taking chances on players like this.
  2. jmlease1
    Miranda has exactly the same number of games in AAA that Arraez did in 2019. I think if Donaldson gets moved you'll see Arraez as the primary at 3B, but Miranda might still get a shot this season.
  3. jmlease1
    Telis is 30 years old and has basically never hit in several stints in the majors. In five different seasons he's put together an OPS of .565. He's an organizational depth player with very little upside and he's not on the 40 man roster, so he's not coming up unless things really go sideways at catcher. Useful to have at AAA and work with our young pitchers, but not a prospect. Should he get one more shot to show he can hit in MLB before being consigned to this kind of role? Maybe, but it's hard to say he should be playing for MN over Jeffers and Rortvedt who are significantly younger and have a better chance to stick. Yes, Rortvedt can't hit a lick right now, but the D is excellent and getting him the ABs now in a lost season is good to see if he can be a legit platoon/backup option in the future. The platoon aspect is important, because Jeffers looks like he might be a guy who abuses LHP and gets taken to school vs righties.
  4. jmlease1
    Nice results from Balazovic. I really don't care if he moves up to AAA this season or not; I just want him to get starts and get innings. He's never thrown 100 innings in professional ball in his entire career, so what he really needs is to pitch and I don't know that it matters much whether it's at AA or AAA. Hopefully he can get another 12 starts or so and get over that 100 innings this year. The Jose Miranda Explosion (which may be the name of my 14th album at this point) just keeps on rolling. He's having such a great season and it's hard not to think he's going to be a big part of the Twins future. If Donaldson gets traded, it'll be a lot easier to use all that savings for pitching help with Miranda ready to take on 3B (along with Arraez, of course). What we're seeing out of guys like Winder, Balazovic, and Miranda makes it a lot easier to think about re-loading rather than going into a full -on tear down and rebuild.
  5. jmlease1
    Rooker has prodigious power, but unless he learns to recognize and at least defend himself against MLB-quality breaking balls...he's a 4-A player. he can hit fastballs and will punish plenty of fastballs in the zone, but he's got to do better in laying off breaking stuff out of the zone and being able to react to breaking pitches in the zone and doing damage with them. Because next time he comes up to MN (and i do believe he deserves another look), he's not going to see hardly any fastballs at all. If you think Larnach and Kirilloff are seeing a heavy diet of breaking stuff...The Brent Rooker Experience will be substantially worse until he proves he can manage it. He's feeling a lot like Miguel Sano, pt 2 at the plate...and he's of no value in the field. I can only imagine how twins fans will react to another righty slugger racking up 4K nights... the guy that's really exciting is Jose Miranda, who has clearly unlocked something this year. If Donaldson gets dealt (no sure thing, but it seems to be in the works), I'd love to see Miranda get a good look to see if he can be a contender to fill the spot in 2022. He could platoon a bit with Arraez to protect him a little and the approach he's taking at the plate is pretty fantastic. I love how he's continued to crush it after promotion to AAA.
  6. jmlease1
    have to wonder if this is a guy who they think can increase his velocity under the Wes Johnson Program and have his stuff play up even more in the pros.
  7. jmlease1
    If they can develop that change up for him, then his fastball is really going to be tough. That's some serious gas he's got going. High school pitchers are a risk, but every draft pick is a risk especially pitchers. He seems worth a chance and I do have some confidence in the development process the Twins are establishing, and he'll definitely be at less risk of throwing 140 pitches in a bunch of regular season college games and having Tommy John at 21. Looks like a good pick at that part of the draft. Now the work begins.
  8. jmlease1
    I'd be a lot happier if 8 of our top 20 prospects weren't out with an injury. This is a hugely important developmental year with last year having been a zero for so many players. If a prospect gets limited/no PT this season that's essentially 2 lost years. Yuck. Glad to see Sabato starting to make consistent contact and getting some results. I've been worried that he might bust, because it doesn't matter how good your strike zone judgment is if you can't swing the bat and get some hits. I've got a little more hope now, looking forward to seeing how the rest of his year goes. Julien is getting interesting as a prospect. Looking forward to tracking his progress now that's he's been promoted and playing against pitchers with a more sophisticated approach.
  9. jmlease1
    7 of the top 20 on the injured list, 2 are major injuries and there's a couple more elbow injuries in there to pitchers which make me nervous. That's...not great? Can we just get some health, please? Hope Sabato's game is a sign of the breakout he needs, because so far this season his talent and projection are not matching up to the production. Miranda is crushing it. Great to see his breakout and his ability to sustain it with a change in level, that's a great sign. I think he gets a shot in MLB this season if Donaldson is traded and his evolution as a player makes it a lot easier to move on from Donaldson. Would I feel comfortable with 3B being held down by a combination of Miranda and Arraez next year? I think I would. He could be a legit part of a lineup core with Kirilloff and Larnach.
  10. jmlease1
    3 of the top 4 are injured. Yuck. That's the worst news for this group and the Twins prospects. There's huge talent here, but the Twins desperately need one of the three starters on the list to show out as the next Berrios and sooner rather than later. Right now...not sure you can pencil any of these guys in for 2022: Duran has shown issues with control & health, Balazovic hasn't been consistent, and Canterino hasn't pitched above A-ball. They could all be the core of the Twins rotation in 2023 or 2024, but none of them are likely to pitch in MLB in 2021, which makes it hard to be certain of them for 2022. Love Jose Miranda. Boy, he's risen fast, but he's proving it at every step. Sure seems like he's found an approach that works, and he might be getting a taste this season if Donaldson is traded.
  11. jmlease1
    game like this is why I don't want the Twins to deal Berrios, regardless of the return he might bring. He's terrific. I'd rather have him in the rotation next year and try to sign him long-term when he hits free agency.
  12. jmlease1
    I don't think it's all that high for a reliever, especially one with Moran's kind of K/9. You can accept that kind of BB/9 when he's mowing down hitters at that kind of rate and not giving up a lot of cheap hits, and while I don't expect him to keep the H/9 down around 3.3 like he has this season, he'll do great if he's around his career average on that stat (5.4). Lucas has the issue nailed: command. If he can spot his pitches a bit better that will keep the walk rate in a manageable 3-3.5/9 range. he really struggled with walks in 2019 and combining that with being substantially more hittable is not viable. There's no question in my mind that he can hunt K's at a serious rate, though and suggests he has the stuff to succeed in the 'pen. (I'm pretty sure he's closer to 180lbs at this point than the 167lbs he's listed at with bRef)
  13. jmlease1
    Wallner is a little tough to assess right now. Unlike Sabato, he's making consistent contact and doing damage when he's putting the barrel on the ball. The K-rate is high and you'd like to see a few more walks, but he's at least hammering the ball in relatively limited action. You can argue small sample size on him in a couple of areas, good and bad. Sabato has literally one thing going for him right now: drawing walks. Keoni just needs game time right now. He's young enough I just want him to get through a season of full pro ball and re-assess.
  14. jmlease1
    what concerns me about Sabato is he's older for his level and he's struggling. Hard to see him as a top ten guy right now: he's not playing well, he's not an inexperienced kid, and he's at one of the lowest levels in the minors. Yes, he's drawing walks but he's not making contact. That's a rough K rate. Maybe he's one of those guys that is really struggling not having a season last year, but he's 50 games in and looks rough. Top Ten based on draft position, walks, and hope that he's about to break out? Meh. I'm always rooting for our prospects, but he's not looking strong at all.
  15. jmlease1
    Julien is getting interesting, seeing how well he's doing after moving up a level after destroying low A. But that could have been a "man hammers on the boys" situation, so we need to see him do the same at high A and guarantee a promotion to AA (maybe before the end of the season?). Another guy who is probably a year behind where he'd be because of the lost 2021. Real challenge sorting out guys like this for where they really are in their development. But anyone who controls the strike zone like this is interesting.
  16. jmlease1
    Two of the five in this group are injured. Yuck. I like Enlow a lot, but you never know what happens after Tommy John I hope Rooker comes through in his next chance, but I'm concerned he's a AAAA player.
  17. jmlease1
    Boy, Miranda sure hasn't been intimidated by the promotion! Love it. Hope he keeps crushing it. His rise certainly makes it easier to eat some contract to deal Donaldson, if that's on the table.
  18. jmlease1
    The fake Legend of Jack Morris continues. There's literally no evidence to support this other than a few anecdotes and Jack claiming it was true. Morris was a fine pitcher who was tremendously durable (this season proves the old saw that the best ability is availability and Jack always had that) but the idea that this kind of pitcher really existed is just not supported.
  19. jmlease1
    The lineup is producing a lot like we expected it to at the start of the season. Kirilloff and Larnach have proven more than capable of replacing Rosario's production, and there's plenty of punch up and down the lineup. Health remains a problem (No Buxton, no Garver as key losses as part of a plethora of injuries) but the offense is fine. The pitching is a wreck and it's compounded by all of the depth/youth being ravaged by injuries too. I really didn't see the bullpen implosion coming; I knew we would miss Trevor May but thought we had refilled with a bunch of nice options. Alcala is too homer-happy, Colome has totally collapsed, Stashak was garbage (and injured)...if anything I was a little concerned we might not have enough lefty power in the bullpen, but Rogers and Thielbar have been great, and two of the only reliable guys. I thought there was a real chance Happ or Shoemaker might not stick in the rotation, but thought we were in good shape with Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer as backup options and Duran on the come in AAA. Let's see...injured, injured, injured, and injured. Oof. What a year.
  20. jmlease1
    Cabbage needs to move up soon, see if he can do this against better competition. Right now, he's the adult beating up on kids (at least a little). Not sure we're going to learn much more about him in A-ball. Nice performance from Vallimont. He's always been able to get Ks, and his walk rate isn't bad (it's not stellar, but you live with it if he's getting 14/9 on his K rate!). He's still a little too hittable, though. But he's definitely showing he was worth making a run at in the Romo trade. As another one in the legion of players who really needed the development time last year that he didn't get, it's good to see him respond well to the challenge of AA.
  21. jmlease1
    I'd sign Berrios to a 5 year $100M deal immediately. he gets that on the open market in my mind for sure, unless he blows out his elbow next season, and there's nothing to suggest he will. I just think he's comfortable betting on himself and won't sign it. Feels like he's looking around and thinking "I'm already there, and if I have a good season in 2022, I'm going to see 5/$125M or more." Can't say that he's wrong. He's definitely not taking a home-town discount. Buxton is the harder call. Kornheiser ain't wrong when he says the greatest ability is availability. Can you offer a $100M deal knowing that he may never play a full season over the life of that deal? He's played 140 games in a season once, and it's the only time he's broken a hundred games, and there's little to no chance of it happening this year either. but as shown, he's capable of putting up tremendous value when he is healthy. How will he age as a player? Will he maintain his skill through the duration of the contract, or will it degrade because of the injuries? It's the hardest call. I love him as a player. he is a joy to watch and I want him part of the team forever. Can we do this deal? man, that's tough.
  22. jmlease1
    LF is probably the thinnest position in Twins history. Either had guys cycle through for a season or two or longer tenured players just never being stars. On this list, I'd probably take Bob Allison, even if his best seasons weren't in left.
  23. jmlease1
    I don't think Miranda has to worry much, but it's easier for him to get consistent ABs at AA than it might be at AAA, depending on organizational health levels. He'll likely get the call to AAA in the next few weeks.
  24. jmlease1
    Isn't the comp to look at Zack Wheeler? Yes, Wheeler was a bit older, but from a career perspective there's a lot of similarities: very good pitchers, never great. Belief that there's still another level to unlock for them, similar ERA+. Wheeler got 5 for $115M. I'm sure Berrios is thinking "I;m younger than this guy, I'm better than this guy, I'm never hurt...I should get 5 for $125, minimum." Is he wrong? It's an interesting question. All it takes is one. I'd lock up Berrios on 5 for $85M in a heartbeat, and I think the Twins would too. I think he's said no. The number will have to be over $100M for him to even consider it, because I'm sure he can get that on the open market and he's shown he's more than willing to bet on himself. and it's paid off for him. We are not talking AAV of $15-17M for Berrios on an extension. We're talking $20-25M if we actually want to sign him.
  25. jmlease1
    I'm still bummed about Enlow. Hope he can come back strong. All I want for Balazovic is health and innings right now. I'm confident in his talent, just want him to stay healthy the whole years and build up some innings. It's a lost year for the Twins, so no need to rush or push him, just get him ready to compete in spring training next year with Duran and if he's ready, great. If he needs a little more time in AAA, that'll be fine too. He could be great. Huzzah for Jose Miranda. I hope he keeps rolling all year. Not worried about finding a place for him in the next year or two: if he really is this kind of hitter, you can always find room for that guy, and that's the problem I want to have.
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