jmlease1

I guess we'll see how his power potential actually plays and whether or not he makes enough consistent hard contact to be a Sano-type slugger. Not sure I would have him ranked this high due to his limitations defensively, and there's always a question about how well college sluggers will adapt...but he does seem to have serious power. I'm not worried about him being "blocked"; if he's great then he'll force his way into the lineup and we do have potential spaces opening up along the way. I'm also not opposed to having some of our other guys lock down positions with their dominance and making Sabato a trade chip. Draft talent and skill and figure out positioning and playing time and opportunity later. Besides, this stuff changes so rapidly. Think about where the Twins were at 1B a couple of years ago: did we have anyone coming up through the pipeline? Heck, did we have anyone on the roster we were ready to hand the job to? (answer: no, we went and grabbed CJ Cron because 1B was pretty thin and the best internal options just created a different hole)

"max effort delivery" feels like a buzzword that doesn't have enough context and real research behind it yet. How many supposed "max effort" guys have actually had TJ in relationship to the total number, and how do you quantify who qualifies? This is like Verducci's theory that guys who increase their inning totals too much from year to year are more likely to get injured: it sounds good, it makes intuitive sense...but is there actual data to support it, or are we living in the land of anecdotal evidence? Until he actually gets hurt or his mechanics fall apart consistently, I'm not going to worry about it for him. I'm excited that he's added velocity on the fastball and honing his secondary offerings and seems to like working with the Twins on some analytics. Him missing a year really stinks, because he was likely to have risen pretty quickly, and I'd really rather he be starting at AA, working against more advanced hitters and so forth. If he can work consistently in the mid-90's with the fastball and pair it off with a sharp curve, that's a great basis to be mixing with. Looking forward to seeing what he can do, and really hope he can stick as a starter.

Bringing Shoemaker in to compete for the 5th spot sounds like a solid idea. Dobnak is fine but probably shouldn't get the spot on scholarship, and frankly we'll need the pitching depth...because everyone needs the pitching depth. And I would be really interested to see if tweaking his pitch mix has a significant impact. That's the sort of thing that makes it a realistic upside play and not just "well, we need another veteran"

It's interesting with pitchers...sometimes they dominate from the start. Other times they have that breakout season that rapidly takes them to a new level, when they finally unlock/control something that lets them be their best pitcher. Some pitchers just kinda stay the same, never really getting any better or worse as they float up levels. And then there are the total busts who flame out fast. Enlow feels like he's somewhere between the 2nd & 3rd of these and we don't know which one he'll be. It wouldn't take much for him to start kicking ass with a fastball with good life on it and wicked curve...but if the curve doesn't improve...he might be one of those guys who just never takes the leap. He's got another year before he hits Rule 5, right?

i think the Royals are adding some players to raise their floor so their young talent doesn't just experience constant losing at the MLB level. They may not be ready to compete during benintendi's contract, but they've got the payroll room and then they can use the space to get a better player at the end of it. might help them win a few more games and keep their fans engaged?

Rooker did great in his brief stint, but his minor league stats didn't show him consistently making that same kind of contact, so projecting him off his cup of coffee in MLB probably isn't a realistic expectation. It's great that he jumped in and the lights weren't too bright for him, but it's fair to think that with more exposure he's going to whiff a LOT more. It'd be great to be wrong, because that power is legit. Celestino is going to be interesting. His D is probably MLB ready right now and if he can get on base at a solid number he's going to be a nice insurance policy for Buxton sooner rather than later. I'm hoping he doesn't need to be brought up this year and just gets piles of ABs in AA...and hopefully shows a good and consistent approach at the plate. Seeing how much pop is in his bat will be worth watching this year, but he's looking like a nice player who will be a plus defender and could be a plus hitter. Some nice players on this list. Wallner is the least interesting to me; he doesn't look like he's got a great path to the majors right now, the loss of a development year really hurts him, and I'm not sure how much value he has as a trade asset. he's going to really get a hot start out the gate and dominate. Hope he can, but if he's not in AA before the end of the season, you have to wonder if he has enough of a ceiling.

Kenta Maeda's career splits by month: April/March: BA .259 OBP .315 SLG .429 OPS .744 May: BA. 197 OBP .266 SLG .342 OPS .608 June: BA. 204 OBP .282 SLG .311 OPS .592 July: BA. 237 OBP .290 SLG .421 OPS .711 August: BA. 204 OBP .259 SLG .373 OPS .632 Sept/Oct: BA .224 OBP .276 SLG .382 OPS .659 This is a guy who "gets worn down"? I think the reality is the Dodgers dumped him into the 'pen because a) he was effective there and they needed the help, they had more effective starters than they had relief help, and c) they wanted to dodge some of the incentives due in his contract. It's a fine trade for both teams. the Twins needed starting pitching and got it, They got a contract that is team-friendly, even when paying out all the incentives. The Dodgers wanted bullpen help and got a guy with a big arm under team control. both players performed well in their roles in the first season after the deal Trades aren't a zero-sum game, and having some deals where it works out fine for both clubs probably makes it easier to deal in the future,

well, Rooker was injured. He probably would have gotten the call if he hadn't had that fluke injury. and Buxton wasn't healthy either. I don't think giving Kirilloff his first start in MLB in a playoff game was a preferred option.

It'll be interesting to see if training camp really has significant battles for the last relief spot, the last rotation spot, a starting spot in the OF, and the last bench slot. Sometimes these things look decided before camp opens, sometimes a guy kicks a door open and refuses to be sent down. Kirilloff could be one of those guys. Despite the service time manipulation issue, he might hit so well that the Twins just can't drop him down. I'd love for them to sign him to a long-term deal to get away from that issue, but with his representation I see that as being a zero-chance proposition. With the lack of minor league ball last year, the Twins have a legitimate case to start him in AAA...but I still think I'd rather see him starting in LF from day 1. That said...hard to say Rooker doesn't deserve a chance too. We'll see if there's a late veteran starter signing, otherwise it sure looks like Dobnak is the 5th guy (I'm fine with that). The last slot in the 'pen isn't that meaningful when you're carrying 26,574 pitchers on the roster...maybe Thorpe is the guy who is best suited to pitching once every 8 days. Even with starters going 5 innings, it's hard to find work for that last bullpen slot. I think Tortuga gets the last bench slot; while I don't think the Twins love him at catcher, he does give them that flexibility. I think Blankenhorn starts at AAA and hops on the Green Line a lot this year if/when injuries hit.

It depends on what you value and how you define it. Mays was such a great fielder and hitter...did anyone even think about asking him to pitch? Ruth also played in a segregated era, with all that entails. They ended up very close in career bWAR totals 162.1 for Ruth v. 156.2 for Mays, and Mays missed a season for military service. Which one was "better"? yes. Back to Cruz...I don't think he'll pass any of these players for "best season over 40" mostly because Cruz is gonna DH and all of these guys played the field. Maybe, just maybe he can top Sam Rice, but it's really hard for a DH to punch out a 5 bWAR season because of the position adjustment. I do think he'll have another good season, OPS+ around 140-150 and be an important cog in the offense.

I think Thorpe has a problem: he was a non-entity last season, is behind Dobnak in the competition for the 5th spot in the rotation, and the Twins really don't need another lefty in the 'pen right now. With Thielbar & Rogers, along with the splits that Colome has...they really don't have an immediate need for another lefty arm. The one thing that might get Thorpe in the 8th slot is his ability to go multiple innings. I don't know what the Twins are thinking for the 8th spot and how much they value having relievers go 1+ innings for some of their guys or not. I think Alcala is going to see more late inning opportunities. He looked like he was capable last season, so while he'll probably start the year getting more 6th inning jobs, I'm betting he's taking on higher leverage appearances quickly.

I guess I'm unreasonable. Bauer is being paid like he's Max Scherzer and he does not have that kind of track record of consistent success. He had an elite stretch during the pandemic that's out of line with his career totals. Expecting him to be at career highs in H/9, K/9, BB/9 at the same time he's near a career best in HR/9 again for an entire season seems unlikely. His H/9 wasn't just a career best it was far beyond anything he'd ever turned in and screams Small Sample Size. Again: I'd love to know what crystal ball knows for sure that you're gonna get 2020 Trevor Bauer for a full year, when the 2019 Cincy version (which was over almost the exact same number of games) was dreadful. Donaldson has a consistent track record of success when he's on the field. His one bugaboo is injury and he got bit last year (still played almost half the season and was productive; 131 OPS+ shows he can still hit). Hardly useless. The Dodgers can do this because their financial resources are such they can eat a $40M contract if he busts (it'll still hurt even them), but they are one of the few. But it's still a high-risk move.

The Bauer deal is wildly great for the player. If he's awesome, he can opt-out and get an even bigger deal. If he's average, he sticks for another year at a giant salary, rinse and repeat. I mean, great for the player...but this is the kind of contract risk the Twins can't afford. Bauer was unquestionably the choice for the Cy last year. But there's a real chance that this year he's roughly as effective overall as Jake Odorizzi. Bauer's upside is higher and he'll pitch deeper into games, but going back to 2015, Odorizzi has had more 3+ bWAR seasons than Bauer. Maybe Bauer is great again, dominant and unhittable...or maybe 11 starts in the pandemic aren't a very good judge of his value and he regresses much closer to his career averages and he's a 3 bWAR pitcher and staggeringly overpaid. As great as Bauer was over 11 starts last season, he was trash in 10 starts after getting dealt to Cincy the previous year. There is massive risk in this deal. I wouldn't throw this kind of money at Bauer even if I had it in the budget. Maybe it'll pay out for the Dodgers, but I think the only person who wins on this one is Bauer, who gets to be a FA again quickly if he has a great year, gets paid top 5 starter money the next 2 years regardless, and gets to do it on a team that is loaded with talent so they'll win a bunch even if he's not all that great.

I liked Wade, but he was behind Cave as a backup and with Kirilloff and Larnach looking ready it was hard to see The Walking Man get much of an opportunity. He's a solid defender...but not a great one. He draws some walks...but he's basically never shown any real power. Hard to see him playing much if at all, and frankly we have better options for hitters. Shaun Anderson is interesting. Probably good that he has options left, because he's not a finished product yet. But he's clearly got some talent with that slider and if the fastball can back it up he could be a very useful RH reliever. We'll see if he can control it well enough to keep making guys look silly. Decent little swap. I'm not sure Wade had a ton of value out there, so this seems like a good move for the Twins and might work out fine for the Giants too.

I'd be happy to get Clippard back because his reverse splits would give them another option against lefties and he wouldn't cost much. I don't see much need to get another mediocre RHP and see no reason not to let Stashak have a slot: he's pitched well enough to deserve it. I don't think they need another backup INF at this point; If you're gonna carry that kind of guy on the 26-man, let a Nick Gordon or Travis Blankenhorn compete for it but you don't need the same kind of backup SS option when you have Polanco & Simmons on the same team. What's the advantage to having a no-hit utility guy who's D is probably overrated anyway sitting on the bench just because he's a SS? Just insurance against long-term injuries to both Simmons & Polanco? If both those guys go down for 2 months we've got bigger problems one of the utility guys still out there won't solve. It'll be interesting to see what they grab as a starter: cheap veteran on a make-good to compete for the 5th slot or someone like odorizzi who might find himself without a chair as the music stops and decides to jump in with the twins because they're a good team and they want to be a FA when the market is back to normal. I think it's one or the other and I have no idea which it will be; it'll depend on who's available at what price. (Gotta say, the rotation is pretty deep if Happ or Odorizzi is your 5th starter)

It's a solid signing, shores up the bullpen nicely. he's not going to put up the SSS stats he did in 2020 over the course of the season, but there's no reason to think that he can't be similar to any of his previous three seasons, overall. I don't think he's going to be the "closer" because I don't think we're going to have that kind of role defined, but I'm sure he'll be called upon to finish many games. I feel pretty good about the bullpen right now: Colome, Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, Robles, Stashak, and Thielbar. Rogers is going to be deployed in more matchup related scenarios and guys like Robles & Colome will end up throwing a bunch of 9th innings that are actually lower leverage. There's probably going to be 1 more guy in there...who won't end up pitching enough to stay sharp. there are some interesting young arms to provide some depth, the top guys are good enough that if one or two of them get in a slump you can pull back on them a bit, give them lower leverage spots without screwing yourself. I think they could use to sign one more starter (veteran on a make-good kind of deal) to compete for the 5th spot/provide depth, but that's about it. If there's a good deal on a better starter, I'd love of them to go for it...but I don't feel like they need to do it, only if it's the right guy at the right number.

Really happy to have Cruz back for another run. It's a reasonable deal for both sides and one year limits the risk. It's a good bridge so the Twins don't have to count on too many rookies too fast, but doesn't block young hitters from getting the opportunities they'll need for too long. Cruz is a leader on the team and it'll be good to have him back. Will he regress? Probably a little, but I suspect they'll do a good job in keeping him rested and ready and it's just great to have a feared bat like that in the heart of the order. The lineup looks strong, with plenty of depth. Injuries will end up being the key for them like it is for so many teams: if Buxton and Donaldson and the middle infielders stay relatively healthy and are in a groove come playoffs...I expect the Twins to be in them. I think we'll see the team sign one more veteran RHP reliever for depth (probably in the $2-3M range) and a veteran reclamation project to compete for the 5th starter. Get that done and I feel pretty good about the off-season. (But I'm also a huge proponent of adding Andrelton Simmons)

Schoop lost the job to Arraez during the season, so it's pretty hard to say he wasn't adequately replaced. Schoop played better last year for Det than he did for us, but it's to say he was significantly better than Arraez, just a bit healthier. Considering Arraez is younger and cheaper, I think the Twins did just fine there. Time will tell if Kirilloff or Larnach are capable replacements for Rosario, but assuming they won't be before the season even started indicates a pretty significant bias. Rosario isn't a bad player by any means, but the market has already shown that he wasn't worth the $10M he was set to get in arbitration, since he only got 1/$8M. Would the Twins have resigned him at that number? Maybe, but the way pride messes with people, as soon as the Twins declined arbitration, he was never coming back here. Who else have the Twins not adequately replaced in recent years? CJ Cron? I think they managed that one just fine (adding Donaldson and moving Sano over). Jason Castro? Ryan Jeffers stepped in rather well, I'd say. Adrianza? We just added Andrelton Simmons. Robbie Grossman? We replaced him with Cruz. We haven't replaced Marwin yet, but considering how much he sucked last year...it shouldn't be that hard to replace that production. (Frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing Blankenhorn get a shot; with Arraez/Polanco taking most of the remaining AB at 2B, backing up SS, and 3B...outside of protection against injury there aren't going to be that many ABs out there) Rosario had a good run with the Twins and was a nice player. But his defense declined, his plate discipline never really improved and there's really no reason to believe he's going to have a renaissance as a player.

Law is well respected as a prospect evaluator and he's not a guy who just looks at stat lines when doing his evaluations. He scouts players live and on tape and knows what he's doing. He has biases and like everyone he will have misses, but he does a good job of explaining why he's rating players where they are and what he projects them to end up being as a player. He's an actual professional and has earned it. He explains straight-up in his ranking this year how much harder it was to put together the list and feel confident in accuracy because of the pandemic and how much less he was able to see any of these players. That's why he's being listened to. I may not always agree with KLaw, but I would never ignore him.

Target Field has a relatively large LF, as I recall. If they're worried about coverage, they might move Kepler. Probably not, considering how well Kepler's arm plays in RF. We've burned before having guys that just couldn't get to balls (Willingham!), but it's probably not that big of a deal with Kirilloff at this point.

I think you have to feel very good about this top 5 if you're a Twins fan. There's high ceiling talent here, you've got guys who have been moving through the system showing consistent success, and you're seeing guys living up to their potential. Royce is the one who was probably damaged the most by losing out on a season of minor league ball: he needs the ABs to work on his hitting and the reps in the INF to work on his D, but the tools are still really impressive. Kirilloff is going to be exciting, I think. Last year on the prospect list for him. I really think his approach at the plate and gorgeous swing will play immediately in the majors and we're going to see him slashing liners all over the park this year. Kepler should be able to move over to LF without much trouble; he's certainly got the range to play there and his arm plays at any position in the OF, so it makes more sense to move him and slot Kirilloff in at RF I think. But Kirilloff could probably hold down LF if needed right now; it's not like he's Josh Willingham out there. I'm excited about Duran too; he's got an interesting pitch mix and if he's able to keep refining the secondary offerings it'll help the fastball play up a bit better (weird to say that about a pitch that hits triple digits, but it doesn't have a lot of movement, so guys will hit speed if you pump it in there too often). That splinker of his is fun and a bit unusual, which should make some guys look pretty silly bouncing wimpy grounders out there. Fun to see some of these high end guys getting so close to MLB, and it's gonna be great to be able to spot them in Saint Paul.

Keoni Cavaco is one of the players who was hurt by not having a minor league season in 2020. He clearly needs serious development and missing a season like that at his age could really set him back. I hope he gets the playing and development time he needs this year and we can see where he's really at, but right now I wouldn't put him this high on the list. He might have been a reach when drafted and he definitely struggled in his first (limited) exposure to pro ball. I hope this isn't the FO's first big draft pick bust, but I'm a bit worried about this one. Big big fan of Balazovic (although I keep screwing up pronouncing his last name) and I really think he's going be a nice starter. Will he make his debut in 2021? I guess that depends a little on where he starts the year and what happens with injuries. But I think he's on the path to compete for a spot in the rotation for 2022 for sure. Looking forward to seeing him pitch.

Looking forward to seeing how celestino's hit tool progresses. If he can get on base at a respectable pace he'll be a very useful player because the D is legit. CFs who cover miles and miles of ground make me happy, they are so wonderfully fun to watch, and I will probably overrate them in my head.

Love this move. Simmons gives us a plus defender at SS for the first time in quite a while, and while he has very little pop in his bat, he does make good contact and take a few walks, so it's not like he's a black hole at the plate. He's not a great hitter, but he'll be ok at the bottom of the order. I'm just excited about the defense. And with Polanco in a super-utility role at 2B, SS, maybe a little 3B, occasionally in the OF if needed...that should be an upgrade over what Marwin gave us last season. Even more importantly, if Polanco gets nicked up again they should be able to rest him rather than having him play through it. We just didn't have the SS depth last year.

I think right now it's Kirilloff. He's passed the test at every level so far and looks to have an elite hit tool that's backed up with performance. Lewis has great athleticism and elite potential, but he hasn't locked into a defensive position yet and he hasn't unlocked his hit potential yet. This is also probably the last time we talk about them this way, because Kirilloff is about to graduate from prospect status. While it's possible Larnach or Rooker beats him out for a starting position in the OF, he's the odds-on favorite to grab a corner OF slot. And I don't think he's gonna let it go once he lands it. The only real knock against Kirilloff is health: he's been dinged a few times. Hopefully he's able to stay on the field and slash line drives at everyone and every thing. I can't wait to see him out there for the Twins. I'm still high on Royce Lewis, but he's still got some work to do. He'll be back as #1 after this season as Kirilloff graduates. Hopefully the loss of last season's minor league games don't set him back.