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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Smeltzer is the toughest question in this group. He's a useful pitcher...but with limited upside. If the Twins are really crunched on the 40-man with better prospects, someone like him could get left out in the cold. I have no doubt that he'll get a shot at a major league roster from another team in a heartbeat, which is where it gets painful. But I don't think he's got a lot of value in a trade either (he's a throw-in in a bigger deal, maybe). That seems harsh for a guy who has had some success in MLB, but his ceiling looks like 5th starter/long man. I had higher hopes for Stashak as an impact reliever, but he's looking like a fungible guy and proof positive for why you have to be careful in where you put your money on the relief corps. A lot of these guys are going to be good one year and not much the next. He's probably not as bad as this year's numbers suggest, but also probably not as good as he was in 2020. The K's are great, but he's also a bit too hittable, so if his control slips (for whatever reason), then the WHIP is unsustainable. But he could have a nice bounceback year and be a decent middle relief option next year, which I'm sure will cause people to call for Falvine's collective heads if he goes elsewhere. He's another guy who the team will have to balance his potential utility against his lesser upside in evaluating him for a 40-man spot against a prospect with a higher ceiling.
  2. jmlease1
    Bummer about Sands leaving with an injury. All I want out of Most of our starters in the minors is health and inning right now, so seeing another guy who needs the development time go down just stinks. But Joe Ryan looks exciting! Wouldn't it be delightful if in a year everyone is talking about what a steal the Twins pulled off in dealing a rental for a rotation fixture?
  3. jmlease1
    there's no way around it: a very exciting start for Joe Ryan. That's a lot of strikeouts in a short stint, and he was reasonably efficient about it. Obviously, it'll be tougher at MLB, but he's definitely looking like he's not far off from being ready to take a shot at the majors and you can see why the Twins jumped on getting him for Cruz. I think it's smart to ease him back in after the Olympics, but it's great to have the Twins staff finally able to get their hands on Ryan and start to work with him and evaluate where he's at under AAA game conditions. It's a really interesting question on him getting the call-up; he's going to get at least one more start in AAA as part of the ramp up, I'm sure. If he crushes it again, do you bring him up in September to test him against the best? I think you do. He's not got a ton of innings on him for this year (in some ways the Olympics were good in creating an innings limit of sorts without actually pulling him), he's 25...if he looks ready, let him fly.
  4. jmlease1
    Older vets also want to play. vets also take 1 year deals to rebuild their value in FA, and they don't get that if they get dumped (regardless of performance)...so many of them ARE worrying about the following years. yes, you'll still be able to sign guys...but it's already hard enough for the Twins in FA. Do we really want to have to offer an additional 20% premium on a guy to get him to sign because we've built a rep as a crap organization with no loyalty and respect? (The whining about "overpaying" guys will be really fun to endure too. And by "fun", I mean the other thing.) the human element happens, pride gets in the way. A guy will get dropped rather than be offered "too much" in arbitration. Time after time you'll see that player head to a different organization, at equal or less money because pride won't let them take that deal from their current club. All of this stuff comes into play, and ignoring it for marginal moves can cause more damage than whatever small benefit you might get on development time.
  5. jmlease1
    You can't run an actual team like a fantasy/video game. There are actually people involved and the human element impacts your actions in both the short and long term. Yes, Colome is not coming back next year but he's been pitching well over his last 9 appearances until yesterday. A reliever is pitching well, has a bad outing and gets cut? Good luck signing anyone good to a 1-year deal next season. We don't have a young SS ready to play in the majors so, who do we replace Simmons with, exactly? One of the retreads from AAA who also won't be part of the future? Pineda is a contender to get re-signed next season and with his current relationship might be gotten for a reasonable price. They're going to need some veterans for the rotation, because betting on all rookies next season is a recipe for disaster. When healthy, he's a good pitcher. Cut him and he'll never wear a Twins uniform again. Sorry to see that Thorpe looks like he's never going to put it together. Sounds like the shoulder is trash, and that's a shame. I had hopes for him, but he's never been able to put it together. Maybe he'll get healthy for one more go this year, but I expect he'll fall off the 40 man now. Too bad: he had talent.
  6. jmlease1
    I'm pretty sure the actually quote from Mauch (and he may not have originated it) is "How do you build a 5-man rotation? Start with 10." but it's still true: between injuries and ineffectiveness, you need to expect to go 8-9 guys deep getting starts every season. On a good year, you go 6-7. on a bad one, you go 10-12.
  7. jmlease1
    The more I look at this list, the more I think Moran is too low. I get that FV is limited by him already being slotted in as a reliever, but this season has shown that you need to have some reliable stalwarts in the 'pen and he looks like he could be an anchor from the left side much in the same way Taylor Rogers has been for the past 4 years. I don't believe in spending huge sums on relievers, but you do need to get a few reliable anchors as you sort out who the other guys can be from year to year. Moran's talent puts him closer to 20 than 30 for me. I might drop Sabato and Wallner a few spots, but that's a minor quibble. Sabato has finally started showing some power, but it's an awfully small sample size to assume he's figured that out, considering how dreadful he's otherwise been this season. Wallner's K rate is worrying, but he's certainly doing better than sabato at this stage. I had Martin over Lewis; I'm a big fan of Martin. I'm not worried about his power development at this point and his control of the strike zone is fantastic. he can hit and get on base amazingly well for a guy in his first taste of pro ball at AA. He might be someone people say "he's the only guy I know that can go 4 for 3" about. (which was said about a Twins HoFer once upon a time) Lewis still has terrific upside, but he's losing out on two key development years and that has to set you back a little. the depth is looking good, even with a bunch of players getting close or ready to graduate off of prospect status. We do still need to find that defensive wizard at SS, and it would be nice to start the development on another catching prospect down in A-ball...but overall the talent pipeline is looking strong.
  8. jmlease1
    Such a confounding team. If they'd played like this in April, they might still be relevant this season. I'm not all that bothered by Simmons continuing to get run out there at SS; even with the error tonight he's easily the best defender we have for the spot and that's going to be helpful for young pitchers to have back there. I don't think anyone outside of a few people on this board see Nick Gordon as being an MLB-quality defender at SS, so what's the option? Throw JT Riddle out there? Call up Palacios from AA? And there is the issue of what cutting bait on a veteran can do to you when trying to sign guys in free agency. Burn too many agents and suddenly that veteran you need to fill a roster hole gets steered elsewhere. It's not like Simmons is unplayable (i.e., Shoemaker): he's just bad at the plate, generally good in the field. Jax is battling his way through, but the margins are tight on him. He'll pound the zone enough that he generally won't beat himself, but the HR/9 is unsustainable. He's currently tied with Dobnak (who was having a dreadful season) for the worst HR/9 of any Twins starter this season, and it's the worst of any twins pitcher who's thrown more than 10 innings. Got to keep it in the park or he's not going to hold a spot in the rotation for long. nice to see kepler finding his stroke again; he was very good in July and has been very good again in Aug. Must be finally feeling healthy? he's not an ideal leadoff man, but he's been taking good ABs lately, drawing walks again, and flashing that power stroke, so it's not a terrible idea.
  9. jmlease1
    Nice to see Rooker getting going again. He's going to need some more performances like this to contend for a role on next year's team; he had a terrific July when he came back up (after a brutal start) and has been a bit up & down in August. The power plays, but I'd like to see him do a bit better drawing walks/getting on base. It's interesting how much like Sano he's been this season: not as good against lefties as you might have thought he'd be, great at home, bad on the road...splits are interesting things. Really surprised to see Maeda get pulled after 6 and only 76 pitches. Must have thought has was fighting something after starting that excellent double play and decided not to risk him aggravating it? He pitched very well, really enjoyable. D stood up behind him as well. Wacha was brutal for the Rays, IMHO. Amazed they left him in there so long to get beat around.
  10. jmlease1
    Never? He hit just fine in his first professional season in rookie/low-A in 2017, hit very well in 2018 while spending time at both Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. He took a step back at the plate in 2019, but still played well enough to earn a promotion to AA, where he maintained about the same performance despite being very young for the level. Then he ripped the cover off the ball in the AFL. (If you're positive on Lewis, then it's a sign of good development. If you're down on Lewis, then the AFL means nothing. YMMV.) No stats to say how he developed as a hitter in 2020 and then got hurt and hasn't played in 2021. I'd say the jury is most definitely out on what kind of hitter he is, but it's simply wrong to say he's never shown the ability to hit in his professional career. I put him below Martin for sure (I'm higher on him than some, I know), and would probably push him below Balazovic (who I really like), but he's still a very talented prospect with huge upside.
  11. jmlease1
    I agree that the Twins are not convinced on Gordon at SS, but I don't think they've given up on Palacios there. Hard to know exactly what they think Palacios' future is right now, but he's had a major rebound in AA.
  12. jmlease1
    well, I think that's about to happen. It's now or never on Thorpe, I think, so if he's healthy let;s see if he can go in MLB. we won't learn much more about him in AAA. But if he can get it done in MLB, a lefty with his talent could be very useful. Every time I've thought he was ready to get it in gear he's had some significant setback, so I'm not getting my hopes up but it's not like he doesn't have talent. But if he can't show it soon, he's going to get passed up by the law firm of Balazovic, Duran, Woods-Richardson, Canterino, Ryan and Winder...
  13. jmlease1
    I think this is right for the top 5. I would flip Martin & Lewis (lol), but I know I'm higher on Martin than a lot of people. I'm not worried about his power development, and his ability to control the strike zone is really remarkable for a guy in his first professional season. Lewis is seriously talented, but losing this entire year after not having a minor league season last year hurts his development. Balazovic may not have quite as good raw stuff as Duran, but he's probably a more complete pitcher right now and it's not like he doesn't have good stuff. While he's spent a little time on the IL this year, he's back and healthy and dominating again and it's more than fair to be concerned about Duran's elbow. Looking forward to seeing Woods-Richardson and seeing what he can do.
  14. jmlease1
    I hope Sabato is figuring it out. He needs this hot run to keep going and to keep getting the bat on the ball. Right now his stock is falling, but maybe just maybe the reason for his rotten start has more to do with not getting to play last season than a lack of ability. The batting eye is good, the power is there but he needs to get hits or he'll be a broke man's Brent Rooker, and that's not good enough to go anywhere but Bust Town.
  15. jmlease1
    It's an interesting group. I'm interested in knowing more about why the wide range between where FanGraphs is ranking Strotman vs MLB/Twins Daily; is it based on the assessment of talent in the system or on Strotman himself? I think Strotman is a really interesting prospect, but he probably has the widest range of outcomes of anyone on this list, Celestino got called up way too early, but I still like his potential. Hopefully he finishes strong in AAA (which is where he should have been all along) and gets his confidence back up as a hitter. He's a solid defender and should be a factor soon. (Really interesting that he bats right and throws left?) Winder is a guy I just want healthy and pitching. I know they're being cautious with him, and they should since he didn't pitch last year, but everything looks to be heading in the right direction if he stays healthy. He needs innings. But the results look great, and if he's the 11th prospect on your list...that's a pretty exciting top 10.
  16. jmlease1
    I would have thought Moran would get the call up from Saint Paul, not some 35 year-old retread? I wonder, after getting his brains beat in by MLB pitching when he was called up before being ready due to way too many injuries, Celestino went down to Saint Paul and thought, "this is easy!". (Rortvedt may have had similar feelings...)
  17. jmlease1
    Jax pitched quite well tonight, but you kinda saw the extremes with him and just how fine and on it he needs to be to have success at this level. When he's hitting his spots, moving the ball around well, mixing his pitches effectively, not giving up cheap walks, and finishing off batters...he's very effective. When he slips a little, a mistake can/will get crushed. He's giving up way too many dingers for my liking right now (2.4/9 is not a very good number) but if he can get that under control, he's a contender for the 5th spot next year. I'm happier if he's thought of as more the 7th-8th starter going into next season (knowing we'll need to go at least that far in even if we're relatively healthy), but he's doing well with his opportunity and should keep starting the rest of the year to see how deep he can go into games and if MLB hitter figure him out, or if he's able to make adjustments to be more effective. It was a solid start last night and it looked like he was working well with garver (Smalley commented on it several times)
  18. jmlease1
    i think that's probably right on Rooker. I would not have ranked him this high; while his power is spectacular, his inability to make consistent contact (and he's not some young kid any longer) severely limits his ceiling. He looks like a worse version of Miguel Sano at the plate with less defensive utility. that's...not great. Maybe he'll prove me wrong. (I love being wrong like that) Sands is really interesting; the numbers look good but I'd be happier if he were handling a bigger workload. It doesn't matter much how great your stuff is if you can't stay on the field, but he's developing well and hopefully finishes the year strong. Urbina is tough to rank. The performance isn't there, but he's super young and it's his first year in professional ball in the US. The tools are good...will it translate? Talented but too early to tell.
  19. jmlease1
    I think I'd have Nick Gordon lower, if I had him on the list at all; while he may technically qualify as a prospect, I don't think I really see him that way any longer. He's a utility guy who we're figuring out if he'll hit enough in MLB and defend at enough positions to stick on a roster now. Vallimont is placed about right. Totally agree with the variance on him. Until he learns to command his pitches, he's going to be enormously frustrating. (we should try to remember that as much as his performances might cause us to tear our our hair...imagine being him? Going from mowing guys down to walking the side? Oof.) The stuff is amazing though and you can't cut bait on him. Varland is a heck of a story and the performance is there. Looking forward to seeing how he does as he advances in level; that's going to be the key on him. Some guys dominate in A-ball through stuff, some through an advanced approach and it doesn't always hold up against more developed hitters. The jump to AA can be perilous, but I'm rooting for him. Sabato deserved to get pushed down, way down. Great, he can draw walks in A-ball, but he was a college hitter with a good eye so he damn well better be able to draw walks on some of the wildness you typically see down there. He's swinging through too many pitches and not doing near enough damage when he connects. He's a staggering disappointment. Maybe he'll bounce back next year and we'll see this as a recovery year for him to redevelop his skills, but he's on the fast track for Bust Town right now.
  20. jmlease1
    Miranda isn't a SS except in an emergency, I think. It'll be interesting to see where Martin lands, but I don't think there should be anything that blocks Palacios from a promotion to AAA. Considering where this season is at, I think you can either bench or cut Riddle and give Palacios a chance in AAA to see if he's a 40-man guy for next year. But as he is right now, you have to keep him on the 40-man or lose him in the Rule 5. there will be a team that isn't competing next season that will be willing to take a flyer on a young guy who might be able to stick at SS coming off a good season at AA. C, SS, CF are where the risks are for position players in the Rule 5, along with pitchers that you could stash in the bullpen.
  21. jmlease1
    Glad to see Canterino on the mound again. I just want the pitchers on the prospect list to be pitching at this point. Hoping for health! Sands had a nice start. He's an interesting prospect and I'm hoping he finishes strong. Austin Martin is a terrific hitter and an absolute on-base machine. I think he'll add back in the power (it's not like he didn't show it in college; you don't get a slugging % north of .600 by accident, even with aluminum bats) as he gets more comfortable in professional baseball and gets healthy. But I do love having a guy in the system who controls the strike zone this well already; it will serve him well as he progresses.
  22. jmlease1
    Moran is exciting. It's really fun to watch a pitcher with a great change up. His ranking is limited by his status as a reliever, but he's the guy I'm most interested in with this pod of prospects. I don't think he'll stay on the list long: I expect to see him in MLB this year and to be a relief option from the jump next year.
  23. jmlease1
    Thank god none of the people here ready to give up on Trevor Larnach work in our front office. He's hit at every level until now, and was rushed up sooner than planned. Giving up on Larnach already is one of the worst takes I've seen on this site all season.
  24. jmlease1
    Not that simple. Palacios was awful at AA in the Rays system, so it's not like he had nothing to prove. He's been playing very well and may have rehabbed his status as an actual prospect and not a bust, but he's not ruining baseballs the way Jose Miranda was. Nick Gordon is back at AAA because he wasn't great in MLB, and the Twins got an actual CF healthy. Gordon isn't really blocking anyone at SS in AAA; if anyone is doing that it's JT Riddle, who has no future with the team. For all that Andrelton Simmons is awful at the plate, he's still a superior defensive player and there's something to be said for having some basic competence in the field at the MLB level, especially when you're testing young pitchers.
  25. jmlease1
    Austin Martin is off to an excellent start at Wichita. only a handful of games, but he hasn't missed a beat since being traded and looks terrific at the plate so far. Let's hope he can keep slashing doubles and constantly getting on base and finish the year strong. Trey Cabbage has done very well since his promotion: always good to see a player keep the same level of production when they bounce up to better competition. But his K rate worries me a bit? It's much more sustainable if he's slugging .500+ than down around .400, though.
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