jmlease1

I don't think it's all that high for a reliever, especially one with Moran's kind of K/9. You can accept that kind of BB/9 when he's mowing down hitters at that kind of rate and not giving up a lot of cheap hits, and while I don't expect him to keep the H/9 down around 3.3 like he has this season, he'll do great if he's around his career average on that stat (5.4). Lucas has the issue nailed: command. If he can spot his pitches a bit better that will keep the walk rate in a manageable 3-3.5/9 range. he really struggled with walks in 2019 and combining that with being substantially more hittable is not viable. There's no question in my mind that he can hunt K's at a serious rate, though and suggests he has the stuff to succeed in the 'pen. (I'm pretty sure he's closer to 180lbs at this point than the 167lbs he's listed at with bRef)

Wallner is a little tough to assess right now. Unlike Sabato, he's making consistent contact and doing damage when he's putting the barrel on the ball. The K-rate is high and you'd like to see a few more walks, but he's at least hammering the ball in relatively limited action. You can argue small sample size on him in a couple of areas, good and bad. Sabato has literally one thing going for him right now: drawing walks. Keoni just needs game time right now. He's young enough I just want him to get through a season of full pro ball and re-assess.

what concerns me about Sabato is he's older for his level and he's struggling. Hard to see him as a top ten guy right now: he's not playing well, he's not an inexperienced kid, and he's at one of the lowest levels in the minors. Yes, he's drawing walks but he's not making contact. That's a rough K rate. Maybe he's one of those guys that is really struggling not having a season last year, but he's 50 games in and looks rough. Top Ten based on draft position, walks, and hope that he's about to break out? Meh. I'm always rooting for our prospects, but he's not looking strong at all.

Julien is getting interesting, seeing how well he's doing after moving up a level after destroying low A. But that could have been a "man hammers on the boys" situation, so we need to see him do the same at high A and guarantee a promotion to AA (maybe before the end of the season?). Another guy who is probably a year behind where he'd be because of the lost 2021. Real challenge sorting out guys like this for where they really are in their development. But anyone who controls the strike zone like this is interesting.

Two of the five in this group are injured. Yuck. I like Enlow a lot, but you never know what happens after Tommy John I hope Rooker comes through in his next chance, but I'm concerned he's a AAAA player.

Boy, Miranda sure hasn't been intimidated by the promotion! Love it. Hope he keeps crushing it. His rise certainly makes it easier to eat some contract to deal Donaldson, if that's on the table.

The fake Legend of Jack Morris continues. There's literally no evidence to support this other than a few anecdotes and Jack claiming it was true. Morris was a fine pitcher who was tremendously durable (this season proves the old saw that the best ability is availability and Jack always had that) but the idea that this kind of pitcher really existed is just not supported.

The lineup is producing a lot like we expected it to at the start of the season. Kirilloff and Larnach have proven more than capable of replacing Rosario's production, and there's plenty of punch up and down the lineup. Health remains a problem (No Buxton, no Garver as key losses as part of a plethora of injuries) but the offense is fine. The pitching is a wreck and it's compounded by all of the depth/youth being ravaged by injuries too. I really didn't see the bullpen implosion coming; I knew we would miss Trevor May but thought we had refilled with a bunch of nice options. Alcala is too homer-happy, Colome has totally collapsed, Stashak was garbage (and injured)...if anything I was a little concerned we might not have enough lefty power in the bullpen, but Rogers and Thielbar have been great, and two of the only reliable guys. I thought there was a real chance Happ or Shoemaker might not stick in the rotation, but thought we were in good shape with Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer as backup options and Duran on the come in AAA. Let's see...injured, injured, injured, and injured. Oof. What a year.

Cabbage needs to move up soon, see if he can do this against better competition. Right now, he's the adult beating up on kids (at least a little). Not sure we're going to learn much more about him in A-ball. Nice performance from Vallimont. He's always been able to get Ks, and his walk rate isn't bad (it's not stellar, but you live with it if he's getting 14/9 on his K rate!). He's still a little too hittable, though. But he's definitely showing he was worth making a run at in the Romo trade. As another one in the legion of players who really needed the development time last year that he didn't get, it's good to see him respond well to the challenge of AA.

I'd sign Berrios to a 5 year $100M deal immediately. he gets that on the open market in my mind for sure, unless he blows out his elbow next season, and there's nothing to suggest he will. I just think he's comfortable betting on himself and won't sign it. Feels like he's looking around and thinking "I'm already there, and if I have a good season in 2022, I'm going to see 5/$125M or more." Can't say that he's wrong. He's definitely not taking a home-town discount. Buxton is the harder call. Kornheiser ain't wrong when he says the greatest ability is availability. Can you offer a $100M deal knowing that he may never play a full season over the life of that deal? He's played 140 games in a season once, and it's the only time he's broken a hundred games, and there's little to no chance of it happening this year either. but as shown, he's capable of putting up tremendous value when he is healthy. How will he age as a player? Will he maintain his skill through the duration of the contract, or will it degrade because of the injuries? It's the hardest call. I love him as a player. he is a joy to watch and I want him part of the team forever. Can we do this deal? man, that's tough.

LF is probably the thinnest position in Twins history. Either had guys cycle through for a season or two or longer tenured players just never being stars. On this list, I'd probably take Bob Allison, even if his best seasons weren't in left.

I don't think Miranda has to worry much, but it's easier for him to get consistent ABs at AA than it might be at AAA, depending on organizational health levels. He'll likely get the call to AAA in the next few weeks.

Isn't the comp to look at Zack Wheeler? Yes, Wheeler was a bit older, but from a career perspective there's a lot of similarities: very good pitchers, never great. Belief that there's still another level to unlock for them, similar ERA+. Wheeler got 5 for $115M. I'm sure Berrios is thinking "I;m younger than this guy, I'm better than this guy, I'm never hurt...I should get 5 for $125, minimum." Is he wrong? It's an interesting question. All it takes is one. I'd lock up Berrios on 5 for $85M in a heartbeat, and I think the Twins would too. I think he's said no. The number will have to be over $100M for him to even consider it, because I'm sure he can get that on the open market and he's shown he's more than willing to bet on himself. and it's paid off for him. We are not talking AAV of $15-17M for Berrios on an extension. We're talking $20-25M if we actually want to sign him.

I'm still bummed about Enlow. Hope he can come back strong. All I want for Balazovic is health and innings right now. I'm confident in his talent, just want him to stay healthy the whole years and build up some innings. It's a lost year for the Twins, so no need to rush or push him, just get him ready to compete in spring training next year with Duran and if he's ready, great. If he needs a little more time in AAA, that'll be fine too. He could be great. Huzzah for Jose Miranda. I hope he keeps rolling all year. Not worried about finding a place for him in the next year or two: if he really is this kind of hitter, you can always find room for that guy, and that's the problem I want to have.

Miranda is the minor league story of the year for me so far. He's doing a wonderful job at the plate, showing an advanced approach with discipline, power, and contact skills. He absolutely has to take a huge leap up the rankings progressing like he has at a new level and having his best season as a pro. Would like to know more about his defense, but it can't be that bad at 3B if the team is willing to run him out a SS for a couple of games if in need. It's not like he's an older player beating up on a bunch of teenagers, either; he's the 2nd youngest player to hit for Wichita this season (behind Celestino). tremendous breakthrough season for Miranda and he's in my top ten for sure. Steer is doing well, but I'll be more impressed with him as a prospect if he makes the jump to AA this year and keeps hitting against better competition. a 3-year college player should be able to hammer it in the low minors. I'm excited about canterino and worried about the elbow. Ugh. Winder should make his entrance on the prospect lists and I'm interested to follow him more closely. I'd say Moran deserves a place as well, even if relievers usually seems to get downgraded on prospect lists; he's looking like he might be the real deal.

You're not wrong in that their analytics told them he's not likely to be a player with long-term success. And frankly, the analytics suggest that he's riding a lucky streak right now, which happens to relievers all the time since they don't have tons of innings. But Littell was also a guy who has been passed on by every team when he got pulled from the 40 man. The Twins were interested in bringing him back on a minor league deal; he just chose to go elsewhere as a minor-league free agent: no one gave him a major league deal, not even the Giants. The Giants took a flyer on him on a minor league make-good deal with no risk. He pitched well enough to make the roster and has played well, but I doubt they're gonna offer him any kind of multi-year extension. We'll see where he is at the end of the year too...

Colome wasn't a scrap heap find, though: he'd been a fine and reliable reliever for 5 years in a row. (interesting question on Colome: is he cooked, or is he going to bounce back, either through the end of this season or next? really hard to know) I was thrilled with the Colome signing and based on what we knew then it was absolutely a fine move...it just hasn't worked out. He's literally having the worse stretch of his career since moving to the bullpen. Maybe it's small sample size and will look different by the end of the year, maybe he's just cooked as a pitcher at 32. But he's a sunk cost now with no trade value unless he gets straightened out. So with the year lost, I'd actually pitch him in higher leverage situations now and see if he gets on a roll and can be dealt. That's not a long leash, that's trying to get something for your money. Hell, he ain't blocking anyone. Shoemaker & Happ were attempts to add depth to starting pitching and I really don't think anyone was looking towards Littell as a starting option this season; even the Giants weren't looking that way, a spot start not withstanding. And Shoemaker got yanked from the rotation now that someone got healthy. His leash was "long" because we had nothing else. Pineda was hurt (and is again), Maeda was hurt, Thorpe is hurt, Dobnak has been worse, Smeltzer is hurt and was bad last year...

Might be a little too soon to declare it one way or the other; one things we've seen is that relievers at the margin are awfully fungible. Up one year, down the next. Colome had an outstanding track record going into this season and has been trash this year. Robles has been good this year, bad last year, great the year before, etc. Look at someone like Stashak: had two nice years where he was a good reliever...trash this season. How's Trevor May been? (hint: meh.) Littell has a nice shiny ERA right now, but his FIP is sitting at 4.08. With his K/9 unimpressive (he's a bit above his career average, but still below his career best), the career low H/9 looks a bit like Small Sample Size Syndrome. I see regression to the mean in his future, I'm afraid. He's certainly not someone I would invest in long-term? Considering the misses on other players this year and the utter failures of the bullpen this year, this one sucks...but I don't really blame them for going that way. Littell still looks like just a guy to me.

Winder has 41 IP above A-ball, and didn't throw a single inning in organized play last year. Yes, he's off to a great start in AA, but it's still only 8 starts from a guy whose career high is 125 IP in a season. Let him take a couple of additional turns and move him up at midseason if you have a slot for him a AAA. Not like he's going to fly in and save the season at Target Field. Cano is doing well, but is still pretty hittable; I'd feel better about a pitcher of his age in AA not giving up about as many hits as innings pitched. He's likely to move up fairly soon anyway. Moran looks like a terrific prospect right now; I can live with his BB/9 when a player gets Ks like that. But these are still tiny sample sizes, which is why the Twins probably aren't feeling the need to rush into anything. Great results for Wander Javier. Really great to see him healthy and displaying his talent. It takes a lot, mentally and physically, to come back from all that injury and layoff time so it's fun to see him play and play well. Hard to rank him as a prospect right now, but could be a fun evaluation at season's end. Miranda is killing it. Love the low K-rate, love seeing good power production, love seeing him shine. He will rocket up the prospect charts, and deservedly so.

fair amount of similarities, frankly. Rooker's issue is entirely whether he will make enough contact for it to matter that he makes really hard contact. He doesn't have Sano's control of the strike zone (yet) and weirdly is probably less valuable defensively even though he can play OF and Sano definitely can not. Because Rooker is...not good out there. It's not looking like he's going to make enough contact to be a real MLB player, but more of a AAAA guy. Still a little time to find out, but it's not looking great.

Thielbar's peripherals are all over the place, but you don't cut bait on a lefty reliever with a 13.3 K/9 rate. As you note there's a big difference in the level of competition; if Cano is giving up that many hits in AA, he's likely to get lit up in MLB.

I think one of the biggest challenges in the minors this year is going to be deciding on mid-season promotions. There might be a bit of a logjam as they try to work through everyone coming off a non-season. Normally, someone like Javier might be really pushing to move up to better competition at AA now that he's showing something in high A at 22...but finding room is a big tougher.

Nice game by the Twins. Actually got some hits with runners in scoring position! If you can't root for Nick Gordon right now, you have no soul. Love seeing him seize the opportunity he's getting right now and really happy he's healthy again. Good for him. I got nervous when Berrios gave up the second dinger. Looked like he was mad at himself for giving up the first one and didn't get himself locked back in. Those kind of lapses are what will keep Berrios from taking the next step as a pitcher, but I think he can still figure it out. I would not trade Berrios (even if the offers are huge) unless he's made it clear that he will leave in free agency. He should be an anchor for this pitching staff for the next 5 years, IMHO.

dang, reading this thread the Twins should just cut everybody it sounds like. I get that everyone is frustrated and disappointed in this team (I am too), but there's a level of overreaction going on that's just silly. The team is bad. The bullpen has been bad all year, but they're not the only problem, not by a long shot. You've got a ton of injuries, horrid defense (and this team by any assessment should have improved on D), problematic pitching (worst ERA+ in baseball; it's not just the bullpen), and an unlucky offense (they're 12th in runs scored but 3rd in OPS+). That's a total breakdown that's frankly not predictable. This should have been a good team, but instead it's trash because literally everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. That doesn't take anyone off the hook for their personal performances but it also means you have to be careful about overreacting. Is firing the manager really going to do anything? (doubtful, because firing Rocco won't get anyone off the injured list) Is cutting Shoemaker going to help? (marginal at best; he only stuck in the rotation as long as he did because of injuries and it's not like there's much left to replace him in the 'pen until more people get healthy) Ober did a solid job last night, but let's not pretend he wasn't hittable; dude gave up 7 hits in 5 innings. More importantly, he's barely pitched in the last two years. only 16 innings in the minors this year, none last year (not even in the Saint Paul camp). So pulling him at 75 pitches was hardly outrageous. Alcala had been death against RHB all season...and he gives up a HR. another move that didn't work out. But do you blame Rocco for going to him against a righty? Lefties have been his problem and where he's been homer-happy. Leaving in Shoemaker for a second inning in a tied game makes sense considering the bullpen option and the fact that you're looking at a potential 10th inning if the team doesn't score. Even if we were using a traditional closer role, I'm not sure you see your closer come in at that point. It didn't work out, but in a vacuum it's not an unreasonable decision. It just didn't work out. Like damn near everything this year. Hell Kirilloff ripped the ball hard a couple of times and it ended up running right at guys. But he only got 1 hit, so maybe we should cut him too.

I am so happy for Nick Gordon. He's had some really rough breaks the last two seasons, and it's great to see him get a shot to play in the majors and take full advantage of it. Did a nice job in CF, I thought, and if he can be a legitimate fill-in there his value goes up substantially. The question for me was never whether Gordon could play in MLB, it was really just whether he could get/stay healthy and how high his ceiling was. Really fun watching him show what he can do. (not thrilled to see another bloody injury, though. Hopefully this is relatively minor for Kirilloff)