jmlease1

Could be Thorpe, whose stuff plays well there and his left-handedness might be seen as an asset. Maybe they go with 6 starters for a while. I suspect Maeda sticks in the rotation unless he's pitching poorly. Maeda probably is less unhappy about a postseason shift to the bullpen than a midseason one; if Hill is crushing it and the twins go to 4 starters for the postseason, Pineda or Maeda or even odorizzi could slide into the 'pen.

Except that's not the reason the Dodgers kept shifting him to the bullpen: they did it because they thought he was better suited to handling it than any of their other pitchers, not that he was necessarily the worst of their starters. And Raley is pretty irrelevant, unfortunately. He's 25 and hasn't played a day in MLB yet. In the Twins org he's got 2 LH OFs ahead of him trying to get a 4th OF spot in Wade & Cave, and he's already been passed in the prospect pipeline by Kirilloff and Larnach (also LH bats). For Raley to crack the roster would take something catastrophic. He's the epitome of a surplus, marginal prospect I'm afraid. You made the kenley jansen comp: which Kenley is Graterol going to be? The one in 2016 & 2017 was one of the best closers in the game and fantastically valuable. The one from the last 2 years? Trevor May has been better. My goodness, Blake Parker was better over the last 2 years than Jansen and we cut him. It's one of the dangers with relievers: their value can seriously fluctuate. Even during Jansen's peak run, he had a couple of years where he was good but not elite. A good starter is more valuable than a good reliever. A good starter is about as valuable as a great closer. A good starter is more consistently valuable over time than relievers. I guess if you don't think Maeda will be a good starter, period, then there's not much else to say? But the numbers and track record suggest differently.

I think this is right. It's not that he's a bad player or anything, but: he's 25, doesn't have an elite skill, and plays the easiest positions to fill. From the twins side of things he's also blocked by 2 players above him in the minors in Cave & Wade who have MLB experience and bat the same side, and is about to be passed by Larnach & Kirilloff from AA. Raley might have a future in MLB, but it's as a role-player and the twins have that covered. He's an easy asset to flip to make a deal work.

well, it would be great if in 4 years he's ready to take over at 3B? I think he's hard to place as a prospect right now, since it's all tools and projection. #8? ok. If he'd slotted in as #13 I'm not sure I would have quibbled. I think his projection will get a little clearer after this season. Right now he's this high because he was the twins #1 pick and we've shown fairly good draft acumen lately and the FO has earned some rope. But he's got a long ways to go.

I find it bizarre to give Boston any leeway for how they handled this. What could they have possibly seen in "the medicals" that would have shown them that "hey, maybe the twins are right and he's a bullpen guy after all"? What could they have possibly seen in an old MRI and the year-end physical that would give them more information that his arm could hold up for only 60-80 innings a year vs 150-200 innings a year over scouting him as a player? the answer is, of course, nothing. There are few realistic scenarios for why this happened: 1) The BoSox think the twins medical staff and scouting are incompetent, ignored everything that came out around the decision to move him to the bullpen...and then realized that "dang, maybe they were right all along". 2) the team got crushed by their fan base and most analysts for the deal they had in place (mostly for giving up betts at all to save money) and panicked. Fortunately for them, LA still really wanted Betts (and why wouldn't they? he's a generational talent) and was comfortable eating a chunk of Price's contract. LA also knew that with price coming on board they didn't have room in their rotation for Maeda and knew he was going to be pissed off all year if they dumped him in the bullpen absent injury. Graterol fit just fine on their team, and it sounds like they still liked Raley and threw a little more cash around, since they're printing money out there. From a baseball perspective, this worked out for LA, though they ended up giving up a little more prospect capital than they probably wanted to. it worked out for the twins because they fortified their rotation not just for this year but also for the next few years at low risk, and they're ready to go for it this year and next. from a financial perspective, the BoSox got what they wanted: a reset on the luxury tax and out from under most of david "i hate it here" price and his contract. From a baseball perspective, it stinks for Boston, unless these prospects both turn into allstars. because they gave up an MVP. A generational talent. They basically threw in the towel on 2020, unless the Yankees totally bust out (seems unlikely) Guys like Betts just don't come around very often and they do more than just win baseball games for you: they inspire a generation of fans. Think about what watching Kirby Puckett for his whole career did for a generation of twins fans. Betts was one of those guys for Boston and they dumped him because ownership wanted to make like $100M in profits rather than $50M. They have that right, and it's a lot of money, but it not great for baseball in Boston. On the other hand, screw them. they've won plenty in the last 15 years or so; maybe it's great that they're starting to botch things up for their team on the field!

I'm baffled by this. Why are you predicting only 1-2 decent years from Maeda? He's under contract for 4 years and is only going to be 35 at the very end of it. And you're awfully sure that Graterol (after pitching 14 innings in MLB) will be elite either as a starter or a reliever. I'm fine with this deal. I think it's probably best to complete it with the Dodgers once it's been started and I think the additional pieces that moved around are fine. The 67th pick is an asset but not a significant one: we're talking lottery tickets here. Raley was useful depth to have in AAA, but was already behind Cave & Wade as a LH OF option (and behind Rooker as an OF option too). So again: not like we gave up much. The $10M we're getting back is nice, makes it easier to add another piece at or before the deadline depending on who is available and what we need. Considering the logjam at OF, would I deal Raley straight up for $10M? Not crazy. I liked Graterol, but unless you think the Twins are just flat-out wrong and he really is going to be an elite starter, this is a good trade. I doubt the Dodgers are even going to try and make him a starter: they've had bullpen issues and will almost certainly just plug him in back there and hope his arm and shoulder holds up. Maeda is a nice pitcher on a great contract that fits this team's window really well. Now it's not an imperative to resign Odorizzi next year, because you should have 3 solid pieces already in your rotation in Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda. You don't have to worry about trying to match if someone throws a 4 year $100M contract at odorizzi if you don't want to. I feel much more confident in the rotation going into this year than I did last year. 3 spots are locked in until Pineda gets back (and remember, he's coming off suspension, not injury, so there's little reason to think he won't be able to slot in immediately) and the twins have options to fill until he's ready in Bailey, Thorpe, and Chacin while also having depth to guard against injury. With Hill as an option to get ready for late season, they've got another insurance policy waiting and there are other minor league pitchers in guys like in Dobnak that look ready to contribute in case of injury/ineffectiveness. I'll miss Graterol and his 100mph fastball. I loved his wipeout slider at 89mph. i think he would have been a weapon in the 'pen...probably. But I have enough faith in this FO to believe them when they indicate he's not going to be a starter. So I'd make this deal and gear up to win this year.

I agree with Gleeman: what could they have possibly seen on the medicals that changes Graterol's value so much that they're asking for another top 10 pick...yet they still want Graterol in the deal? That's the bit that makes no sense about this whole "medicals" bit. The reality is, the Red Sox got cold feet (probably because they've been getting hammered on this deal by almost everyone) and are using "medicals" as the excuse to try and redo the deal. I would like Maeda, but I don't think Graterol plus anything significant is worth it. If they want to toss a flyer on there, well...ok? But that's about as far as I'd go. And I'm fine with working out the deal with the Dodgers on the side and if the Dodgers plus up their end, the Twins can do the same. But man, screw the BoSox.

Except it doesn't look like this at all. They still want Graterol, they just want more now, and it seems impossible to be able to get any more information off the medicals right now than what we already knew from the Twins public actions: they weren't sure he could hold up as a starter and thought he was best off in the bullpen this season. This also jives with what a lot of independent analysts were saying about Graterol. If the medicals showed an actual injury, there's no way the BoSox would have still wanted him as part of the deal. And that's the crux of this: they're asking for Graterol plus another top pick as if Graterol isn't a top pick any longer. And it seems like the reason isn't the medicals at all but the fact that they're getting crushed by their fan base and by everyone, everyone in the media. People are calling this deal a massive steal for the Dodgers and a travesty for the BoSox, particularly because people see it as throwing in the towel on this season and giving up a generational talent in order to get out from under a bad contract in Price and save the owners money. They're not a small market team: they're printing money there and even using a Twins-like 1/2 gross revenue = payroll cap they could afford a payroll of like $250M a year without breaking a sweat. The other reason to crush Boston on this one is they're asking for more from the Twins on this, rather than the Dodgers. Graterol for Meada is a pretty reasonable trade. It's one that made a lot of Twins fans twitchy because of the potential of Graterol and the fact that Maeda has never had an elite season. Again: you have to give up something to get something and it sure seemed like most people thought this was a fair value. But the BoSox want more from the Twins, not the Dodgers, even though the Dodgers are getting the best player in this deal by far. And it sure looks like it's because the BoSox like the Twins prospects more than the Dodgers prospects, but that's no reason for the Twins to overpay to make those clowns happy. We're not their farm system. If the Twins decide they really like Maeda and it's worth tossing in their #27 prospect who's a A-ball lottery ticket pitcher or a corner OF who's only shown one plus skill or something...fine? But they're right not to overpay here, and they're right to do everything they can to make Boston look like the incompetent fools they are here. They don't look like a team that has honest concerns about medical issues here, they look like a team who realized they were getting fleeced for Betts, were getting killed in the media for it, and decided to throw Graterol under the bus to try and save it for themselves. Bad staff work.

According to the Athletics, Berrios' number was an attempt to reset the arb numbers for players in his comp range. Which is fine, but I don't see how any of this means that his future is jeopardized. that's pretty clickbait, unless you have a quote from him or his agent saying that he's getting screwed over by this franchise. There's way too many assumptions built in here to presume that any long-term future with the team is problematic because of going to arbitration and losing. The bigger concern is he's not showing any interest in a long-term contract extension right now. If he hits the FA market going into his age 29 season, he's going to be in line for a massive payday if he stays healthy (even if he doesn't get any better). And if he's betting on himself to that extent, it's a risk for the Twins just because if there are 6-10 teams bidding on a player you never know what will decide it and it might be totally out of your control. But he has every right to go that way. I think the twins will try to buy out both his next 2 arbitration years and get 1 year of FA. we'll see if they can make that happen.

Can't blame him at all, because of all the incentives in his contract he was taking a big financial hit every time the Dodgers decided to float him into the bullpen. It's not like he didn't take the ball and pitch well anyway, but you can't blame a guy who sees himself as a starter, has had success as a starter, and has a contract that rewards him for starting pushing back on getting dumped into the bullpen every time the Dodgers wanted to run out another guy in the rotation or needed help in the 'pen. It's hardly a character flaw. Twins certainly want him as a starter, and will happily pay him the incentives because if he hits them all the odds are very good that he's been very successful for the team.

The Dodgers are getting the best player in this deal (YMMV on whether Price/Maeda/Graterol is actually the 2nd best player) so if anyone tosses someone else in it should be them. I'm guessing they probably just eat a little more of Price's contract in the end or flip in an A-ball lottery ticket to close it. But no way should the Twins drop in anything more. I think this still gets done.

I think the fact that the BoSox are getting crushed by almost everyone for making this deal and tanking the season is what's driving this a little; finding a way to get a little more back or make it look better is the issue. The sudden concern about Graterol not being able to hold up as a starter isn't sudden at all; they were just pretending he might start to make it look like they were getting a potential ace back in the deal when the truth is they're getting a good bullpen arm who might be great if his command develops and he stays healthy. I like Maeda and I think deal is worth the risk, so I want the deal to go through. but I also want the deal to go through because I don't think the ****ing Red Sox should get to hold anyone hostage when they're doing a massive salary dump/tank job so that super-rich ownership can get out of the luxury tax.

I'm a fan of Graterol, but this tells me there was a lot of certainty in the Twins organization that he was never going to hold up as a starter, and I'm ok with dealing a reliever, even one who might be a plus or plus plus guy, for a quality MLB starter with a great contract. Dealing for MLB pitching is going to cost. Unless we were going to dip into one of our current younger MLB guys, we were almost certainly going to have to pony up not 1 but 2 of our top prospects to do better than Maeda and then the risk jumps up again. Look, if Graterol develops into an ace, this is going to suck for us, but the odds of that happening don't look all that great, unless you have very little faith in the Twins talent assessment. If there was a realistic chance in the Twins' mind that Graterol's future was as a plus starter, he would not have been slated for the 'pen this year, because it's hard to see a path for him developing as a starter if he spends the year throwing 60 innings as a reliever. Maybe he can develop a 3rd pitch while working in a bullpen role, but when does he develop the endurance and ability to pitch through longer stretches and higher pitch counts and when to give max effort and when not to and all the other things a starter need to do without getting that experience? Maybe Boston sends him to AAA this year to develop as a starter and maybe it works out, but the twins are betting on him being a reliever. Now, I like Graterol as a reliever, but we really don't know if he's going to be a dominant back end guy or not. And no one can predict if he's going to be healthy, though as a reliever I suspect he'll hold up ok. In limited time he pitched well, but wasn't lights out; we remember the 100mph fastball and the wipeout slider making some guys look silly, but he also gave up hits and the BB/9 was a career low and almost certain to rise significantly. He's a good player, but you have to give up something to get something and teams aren't going to hand over quality pitching for a couple of A-ball lottery tickets you drafted in the 4th round. Maeda is a guy that's very interesting. The contract is very team-friendly: if he hits all those incentives it either means he pitched well and was clearly an above average starter, or everyone else got hurt and he was one of the only guys to stay healthy. Odds are, if he reaches those incentives the twins will smile and pay them. It also fills the rotation nicely for several years with fairly low risk. The peripherals on him are pretty nice: plenty of K's (he would have finished just behind odorizzi on last year's staff) and would have had the best WHIP on any of the guys who got more than 10 starts. He's not homer-happy, doesn't give up tons of hits, and has a plus pitch in his slider to rely on. The Wheeler comps are interesting: if they hadn't moved him to the 'pen Maeda could have easily ended up with a very similar pitching line for the year. You can't know for sure, but it's hardly crazy and he's only 2 years older. The Gibson comp is interesting as well: Maeda was definitely better last year. WHIP, FIP, ERA, ERA+, bWAR all confirm this. Where I look at Maeda being a real upgrade is he just doesn't give up baserunners like they're goin' out of style. Gibson's best WHIP is equal to Maeda's worst. I think we can feel confident that Maeda is going to be consistently good and with the twins lineup that's a big deal and you're going to win a lot of games. I can't say I love this deal because I like Graterol a lot, but I respect this deal. We're trading from an area of strength (bullpen) to shore up an area of weakness (rotation). We're getting a guy who helps us now, but hopefully not just this year. There's risk to it, but it's calculated risk.

I agree with this. And it's a reminder that Nick Gordon still might be a fine MLB player.

I still like Nick Gordon. If he hadn't gotten hurt, he would have already made his debut for the Twins and I think his hit tool plays at the MLB level. He may not be able to stick at SS and have to move to 2B, which will limit him with this organization unless Arraez gets hurt or has a massive sophomore slump (I expect some regression, especially on the slugging, but Arraez can flat out hit the baseball) but that doesn't mean he's not still a valuable player. I think he's going to hit like crazy at Rochester to start the season and teams are going to try and pry him loose from the Twins. I've always liked Rortvedt, even though I know Jeffers has passed him on the prospect rankings. But he's a nice catcher and makes me feel a lot better about our position depth. I still think there's a real chance we see him in MLB before Jeffers, though I acknowledge Jeffers has a superior hit tool that makes him a better overall prospect. Keep in mind, Rortvedt is a year younger, though, and reportedly a better receiver back there.

well, their best two hitting prospects both swing from the left side, so if this actually emerges as an issue there may be some in-house options to adjust the formula. I'm not too concerned about it, because while Cruz & Donaldson do have a noticeable splits, they still hit righties very well. Garver & Sano have smaller splits and again, both still hit righties well. This isn't like Kepler having a career OPS of .680 against lefties and needing to protect people.

It's super low-risk, so I think it's fine. I have more confidence in this administration (including Baldelli, not just Falvey/Levine) that guys won't get jobs on scholarship and a promising rookie won't get buried for a veteran simply because they're a veteran. If Chacin shows that he has something left and makes a bounceback from an awful 2019, he could make the rotation at least until Pineda returns. Maybe he provides some insurance if Pineda needs more time to get ready (what if he picks up a small injury when ramping up at the end of his suspension?). Or maybe he bring nothing to the table and gets cut. This is a no-risk insurance policy as long as he's treated that way and not as someone who gets a pass over performance. Again, I don't think this administration will choose veterans over young guys simply because they're veterans. If that was the case, Blake Parker would have stuck in the bullpen last year, instead of getting kicked to the curb. (and it's not like Parker was awful...he just wasn't a plus pitcher and they had better options. This is a guy who started out great in Mar/Apr, mediocre in May, bad in June, mediocre in July, and then the Twins decided they were moving on) They could have said, "Hey, we're paying this guy like $2M, let's keep trying to get our money's worth" but they didn't. They could have said, "hey, he's a veteran, he'll bounce back, let's give him more time" and they didn't. That sort of response makes me feel better about this sort of lottery-ticket veteran signing.

The Machado one is easily the funniest. Manny is clearly pissed off because he thinks Donaldson made him look bad and Donaldson doesn't even notice anything until Manny gets up and starts barking because he immediately turned his attention to the runner at 1B. It was a smart, heads up play by Donaldson and Machado looks like a fool bitching about it.

He's got serious upside...as well as serious bust potential. The stuff is electric, the control is unreliable (at best). Every time I think of him I hear Lou Brown's voice growling "we'd better teach this kid some control before he kills somebody". Now, he's not that bad in truth, but it's also not that far off. He's pitched in at least parts of 5 seasons professionally and his best BB/9 is 5.0. For his career (short as it is so far in actual IPs) it's 6.6 BB/9. All the other peripherals look great. He doesn't give up a lot of hits. He keeps the ball in the park. He gets plenty of Ks. (all of this is subject to SSS, since his IP high is 67, with his 2nd best being 34 2/3) If he learns to control his pitches this year, he's got future MLB player written all over him. If he's still handing out free passes like they're goin' outta style...he's off the 40-man in a year. I'm rooting for him. There's real potential. But the walks have got to come down.

oh, ZiPS. The obsession with regression makes it such a frustrating prediction system. This has Kepler, Garver, and Polanco all predicted to be significantly worse in 2020, by at least 1 fWAR per player. none of these guys have even hit 30 yet. regression's a thing, but all of them? Buxton only misses this grouping because they have him at -0.7 fWAR from last year...in 25% more PAs. Same for Donaldson & Cruz: drops in fWAR of at least 1. Arraez doesn't improve so much as he regresses and plays more. Now, they do this to every team so it can be useful in looking at team-by-team comps in projections, but otherwise ZiPS is probably going to drive every twins fans nuts if you look at it too much in isolation.

well-deserved. Love Justin Morneau. Will never forget him puffing out his cheeks as he took a mighty cut at a baseball that had somehow offended his Canadian sensibilities and required the punishment of a lengthy flight into the right field seats. I was at Game 2 of the ALDS against Oakland at the Dome, and when he followed up Cuddyer's dinger with a shot of his own, it's the loudest I've ever heard any building at any event ever. (It's also one of the only times I've ever made a hr call, turned to my friend after Cuddy launched it and told him "Morneau's going back to back") I mean, holy cow. He absolutely deserves this, he was a fantastic player for the Twins. A real shame about the concussion: realistically it took him 3 1/2 years to recover from it. (and I'm betting that playing in Colorado didn't help his longevity to push into his late 30's) He was absolutely destroying the ball in 2010: 187 OPS+, career high in bWAR in 1/2 a season...that would have been fun to see how he might have finished it. I like him on the broadcasts. I think he still need a little more animation in his voice (he can be a little flat, but it's improved) but the information is great and he's clearly paying attention to what's going on and is interested and engaged. Looking forward to hearing him in the booth again, and I'm glad he's staying engaged with the franchise.

I think Schilling gets in next year (assuming he can keep his big yap shut). Clemens and Bonds won't, I don't think. But they might get it on the last year; it wouldn't surprise me if some writers decide to allow them to have their vote in the last year of eligibility. Personally, i think I would allow them to age off the ballot and let a special committee decide on them a little further removed from the times, but that's just me. There's no easy picks for 2021 in the first-timers (I love Torii, but he's borderline at best and certainly not 1st ballot. Andruw Jones isn't getting a lot of traction right now and he was a better player even with the rapid decline) so it'll be interesting if there's a groundswell for one of the non-PED guys stuck in the middle: Rolen, Vizquel, Helton, Kent, Wagner, or Sheffield. Seems unlikely. But there are two veterans committees meeting next year...maybe Tony O finally makes it?

I like Eddie, but the Twins are correct to go year to year on him. The defense is a real concern (hopefully his defensive decline was health-related and he's at full strength again but you never know) because his range has really dropped, he's been taking increasing numbers of bad routes and just dropping some balls that you think are in his glove. His arm is still plus, but in LF it just doesn't play as much and he's negated some of that value by airmailing it over his cutoff man. The bigger concern is his plate discipline. That .300 OBP really hurts his value as a hitter and his refusal to take a walk is just not great. I get that he's a streak hitter and when he's going no one can get him out it seems like...but those runs where he's not squaring up on the ball? when he's swinging at pitches off the plate by 2 feet or balls that bounce in front of him or are up at his eyes? Yikes. He's still a good player. But is he going to be worth $10M in 2021? Hard to say that he will if his D doesn't bounce back or his plate discipline stays awful. 30 hrs are nice, but he's on a 3-year decline in OPS+, which really does measure offense pretty well. (119, 116, 106, in case you were wondering) His BBs are on a 3 year decline as well. I think if his overall production slides again, he's going the way of Plouffe. I think if it stays exactly the same as last year it's a coin flip, but they probably keep him unless Kirilloff or Larnach is hitting so much that you just can't keep them down any longer (and they might have to had shown something in an MLB stint too). If the D & OBP kick back up to 2018 levels he's back 100%. I like Eddie Rosario. When he's cooking there's no player more fun to watch (except Buxton). We ignore the defensive foibles, overlook the crazy decisions on the basepaths, and it doesn't matter if he swings at a pitch near his eyes, because it'll get smacked to the wall. But when he's slumping, he turns into a complete mess at the plate and every other problem gets magnified.

You're predicting a very fast and steep decline for Donaldson with your prediction. In terms of WAR, you're essentially saying that he's going to be around a 3 WAR player this year (at best) and after that 2 WAR or less. That's exceptionally pessimistic and assumes at least one major injury. You're functionally saying here that the Twins were stupid to sign Nelson Cruz because he was old and it's too risky. You have to take some of these risks in MLB. The contract's not going to be an albatross and neither was the Mauer deal. What held us back with Mauer's later years was the rest of the club wasn't good enough and injuries crushed the life out of the window (concussions didn't just wreck the end of Joe's career, they trashed the team as a whole because of wiping out Morneau too). But they had money to spend if they chose, and they'll have money coming up with this team too. Remember: Cruz's $12M comes off the books after this season, so does Marwin's $9M and they can free up another $7M if they move on from Eddie...all at a time where revenue will be continuing to rise for the team. Even at $140M payroll, this team will be making a profit. Here's the final thing you have to remember on this: you never know who is available and whether you can get the pieces you want, especially in FA. Not spending the money doesn't just get you nothing, there's also an opportunity cost to not moving. It's not like the money really rolls over and gets "banked" to be spent later.

The patience is good for this team, which occasionally was hurt by not having another patient hitter to mix in the lineup. I'm a little concerned about the rise in Ks (career high last year), but if the OBP stays north of .370 and the SLG stays over .500 and he can play 120+ games, he'll be a real force in the middle of the lineup. I wonder if Dallas Kuechel has any regrets signing with the ChiSox now?