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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    No on Polanco playing SS. He's an all-star at 2B, giving fantastic offense and above average D. Moving him to SS really weakens the D, especially if you slot in Arraez/Miranda or even Gordon (who would be the best of the three there but is still not as good defensively as Polanco), and that's ignoring the likelihood that playing SS again will have negative impacts on Polanco's health and offense. but more importantly, no matter how many times fans bring it up, the front office has made it very clear they want Polanco at 2B and they don't see him as a full-time SS. So can we stop wasting time on this? I'm happy to see the back of Simmons; the offense is dreadful and he's slipped enough on D to not make him worth the scratch. He's still good on D, but too stinky at the plate now. I do think it's likely that he has a bit of a bounceback on offense next season; this year has been a career worst and it's not even close, so it wouldn't shock me at all if next year he was closer to 2019 Simmons on offense (which would have been a satisfactory season here too), but he's not worth making the bet that he's going to hold his defensive value and improve his offense while paying him anything of significance, especially with so many other options. Just a note: the article is incorrect on Austin Martin: he has played SS since joining Wichita; his splits were 20 at CF, 16 at SS, and 1 at DH. Can he stick there? I'd say it's less likely than Lewis, but it's still not outside of the realm. Personally, I'd love to get Trevor Story and I hope everyone forgets about him but us...his defense is very good, he can hit, and we might be able to buy a little low on him. (probably not, but he's a player I'd be happy to go in on.)
  2. jmlease1
    Scrub-level? tell us how you really feel about him. (PS: he ain't scrub level) Sano's trade value hasn't changed that much because sluggers with limited positional flexibility are relatively easy to find, but also because outside of the elite players they can have a fair amount of variance year to year. If a team was confident that second-half Sano is who he's going to be next season, they might be interested, but the risk of inconsistency weighed against his contract is going to be too high for most teams. Basically, no one is going to trade for Sano at $9.25M with a $2.75M buyout if they can get CJ Cron for $7M total. or if they can sign someone like Cron at league minimum on a make-good contract like the Rockies did this year with Cron. That's the fundamental problem we have in dealing Sano: last off-season someone like Cron was available for basically nothing. And there's almost always going to be that guy on the market...but it's a guessing game as to which one pans out. Sano had such a rough start (and played pretty poorly last year) that it feels like opinions have hardened on him. There's a lot of people in Twins Territory for whom he will probably never be able to do enough to satisfy, because he's never going to hit .300, and he's never not going to have 150+ Ks. But second-half Sano, or 2017 Sano, or 2019 Sano is a dangerous force in the lineup. Kinda feels like a lot of people have already decided that he's going to be 2018 or 2020 Sano in 2022.
  3. jmlease1
    Varland is a fine choice, i think. He's had an excellent and healthy year, making him the rare Twins pitcher to hit that double. Sands was equally good at a higher level, but I think it's fair to ding him a little for the lack of innings pitched; Varland only got one more start but threw 20 more innings. That's a fair delineator, IMHO. The winners of this award show it's not easy to translate minor league success into MLB prosperity, though. Stephen Gonsalves only made the majors this year because the BoSox had a huge run of injuries/covid problems; he didn't make it on merit. Hermsen was out of baseball 2 years after winning the award. Didn't enjoy being reminded of Tyler Wells, though. Would rather see him pitching for the twins right now than Charlie Barnes, frankly. But I do understand why the Twins exposed him in the Rule 5: didn't pitch in 2019 at all and only had 6 games above A-ball when the O's took him...you'd hope someone would take a pass. But that's the reality on Rule 5: bad teams can grab a guy like that and throw him in the bullpen for a year and hope. twins are going to have several of those tough calls again this year.
  4. jmlease1
    It's interesting how a season can finish up. Two months ago we were talking about how the Twins needed to completely overhaul the entire pitching staff, might need 4 new starters and major reinforcements in the bullpen. Now? Neither the rotation nor the bullpen looks nearly as dire. Ober & Ryan look like guys who can be counted on for next year. Pineda is also a guy that likes it here, is well-liked by the team and could be signed at a reasonable rate for next year. (1 year at $6M? 2 for $12M with bonuses?) Yes, you shouldn't go into a season counting on Pineda to be healthy the full year...but as a guy to pitch effectively and hold the line to keep from rushing prospects in before they're really ready? He makes a lot of sense. The same is on the bullpen: Duffey seems to have found his form again, Alcala has been excellent in the second half of the season, Thielbar has been terrific and the peripherals back up the gaudy W-L record, and if Taylor Rogers is back...maybe that's the core of a solid bullpen that gets augmented by a couple of internal options (Moran, Stashak, Coloumbe) and only needs 1-2 FA signings (best RH power arm they can find?) instead of needed a total overhaul. The offseason overhaul maybe already happening? I hope they can work out a deal with Buxton in the offseason. He's got star power, he wants to be here...and it's a bet worth taking. The last week or so of the season won't change my mind on this, even if he went 0-30.
  5. jmlease1
    That concussion was a real shame. Brutal when a guy is having the best season of his career to have it wiped out like that, and it's really rough with something like a concussion because they look the same but suddenly they're just not the same player. It was nice that he had one last healthy season in Colorado, won a batting title, and looked like Justin Morneau again. I liked how hard he worked on his defense at 1B; he started out pretty rough but IMHO was underrated at 1B later in his career. And boy was it fun when he got a hold of one. Great player, a real pillar for the Twins, and I'm happy to have him continuing to have a strong association with the team and he's doing well on broadcasts. Deserved induction into the Twins HoF.
  6. jmlease1
    That's one metric. His OPS+ is 99 for his career, 92 this season. So this year he's hitting a bit below league average, which is not great for an OF who is pretty awful on defense.
  7. jmlease1
    Ober has pitched more innings this year than he has in any year, college or professional. This is the first time he's made 20 starts and he hasn't pitched over 100 innings since he was 18 (7 years ago). They want him to get through a full season healthy so they can seriously look at him as a guy who can pitch 150-180 innings next season. He's had significant injury issues and never pitched an inning above AA before this year. He's gone from being a fringe prospect to a projectable part of the rotation for next year. I'd say they're handling him just fine.
  8. jmlease1
    I would look to deal Rooker if he could add value in a package. You don't want to give him away, but I don't think he's got all that much of a future in MN. His power certainly plays, but I'm unconvinced that he's going to make enough contact for him to be a significant contributor. I have more faith in Larnach developing at this point (and Larnach is clearly better on D). He's still got an option, so really the question is whether he's worth keeping on the 40-man, and he probably is. But he's likely to get passed up by other players in the OF (Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin, Celestino, etc) so even with guys like Cave likely gone I think for him to find a regular role requires a significant injury. (Celestino's development in AAA is significant, because he's right-handed, can play all three defensive spots, and if he can hit like his minor-league track record suggests in his next call-up...he's a real asset. He wasn't ready for MLB this year, but his performance in AAA suggests he may be next year.)
  9. jmlease1
    I think Thorpe and Barnes get pushed off the 40-man. Smeltzer...some of it will depend on his injury status, but I still think he's got some value. He'll be a tougher call. Jax is a depth piece to me and a fringe 40-man guy and if it came down to it, I'd keep Smeltzer over Jax. (same age, but Smeltzer has been better especially at keeping the ball in the park and not handing out the free passes. Small sample on both, so it's not an easy call) Gant I think goes to the bullpen next season; it's why we traded for him. Dobnak will get a shot at the 5th spot, but probably starts in AAA as the 6th starter if they don't try him as the long man again. Stashak all depends on health: if he's healthy he's competing for a spot in the bullpen and deserves to have the chance. If he's not healthy then he won't stick. Twins are going to cut someone off the 40-man this year that will probably do ok somewhere else. YMMV on how much that's worthy of freaking out over.
  10. jmlease1
    He was called up for good at the start of June, game 55. While things were looking pretty bad already, we were still only about 1/3 of the way through the season and I don't think most people were ready to write off the season yet. Would it have been fair to give him another 50 ABs in May when the team still had a chance to rebound? He played 18 games in AAA this season, it's not like he got buried there...and before that hadn't played in a game in almost 2 years. There seems to be this belief among many Twins fans that Nick Gordon has been treated unfairly or something, or that his performance demands that he be given a bigger role, and I don't quite understand it.
  11. jmlease1
    I'm not writing him off, but we should temper expectations, and I object to the idea that Gordon has somehow been screwed over or obviously should have gotten a bunch more playing time. This is a player who had a truncated 2019 season due to injury and basically did nothing in 2020 as well other than rehab. He needed some time in AAA this year. He was awful in July & August and they still let him play through it. I get that people want him as the full-time SS for some reason, but I really doubt that's in his best interests, since there's no chance he's the opening day SS next year (or any year).
  12. jmlease1
    Look, if you have a problem with Baldelli, fine, but this comment is pretty silly. Gordon has played 65 games in MLB this year and if anything Baldelli and company have tried to put him in positions to succeed and have a career in MLB, and kept giving him opportunities even when his performance at the plate warranted being sent back down to the minors. (please note that he was dreadful at the plate in July and August). If that's ruining his career, we should all be so lucky. It's great that he's playing well in Sept, but he still strikes out a lot, and can't hit lefties so let's calm down a little on Nick Gordon.
  13. jmlease1
    #1 is the rotation. Combination of injuries and ineffectiveness was brutal here, because not only did you have that hammer on Happ & Shoemaker (ineffective), Pineda & Maeda (injured), but it also hit the depth: Dobnak & Thorpe (injured & ineffective), Duran & Winder (injured), etc. While some of it was predictable (Pineda should never be predicted to get through a full season healthy, and Shoemaker had enough issues coming in to not be counted upon) having so many hit in sequence was crushing. #2 was the early implosion of the bullpen. Cost a bunch of wins and really changed the perception of the team and what it was capable of. Took way too long to find some reasonably reliable options (note: the bullpen has been fine recently, but it hasn't been consistent), but unfortunately the small sample sizes on bullpen innings and the fungibility of relief arms makes this one of those things that happens. Taylor Rogers injury was bad timing, but didn't meaningfully impact the season. One of the biggest issues with this bullpen is the walk rate; too many guys with BB/9 rates over 3 and 4, something that was not a problem in 2019 (or even really in 2020). The bullpen WHIP doesn't have a lot of guys who are down around 1.0-1.1 this season. #3 is the injuries in the lineup. yes, every team should expect to have some, but the Twins injuries were definitely concentrated in the OF and it really hurt their depth. The infield has been pretty healthy except at catcher; Donaldson, Simmons, Polanco, and Sano are all going to finish above 125 games played and could easily clear 130 (if Donaldson and Simmons don't it'll be because the team gave meaningless games for them to younger players), which isn't bad. But the OF isn't going to have a single player make 125 games, and only 1 guy clear 100. Look at the standings: most of the winning teams had 1-2 OF playing 130-140 and 2-3 playing 100+.
  14. jmlease1
    As noted elsewhere: he's faced the same team twice already. Sure, both are poor teams with bad offenses but a) you only pitch to the guys in front of you, and b) as noted by LaTroy Hawkins last night, most pitchers hate facing the same team again right away. Both Cleveland and the Cubs should have had good scouting reports on Ryan and these hitters had already seen his stuff, so the fact that he pitched as well if not better the second time around is encouraging. I would have liked to see him get another inning, but maybe they were playing it safe after the injury scare (or maybe they're just not looking to push his pitch counts over 90 this season). Bremer isn't anywhere close to the worst, and is relatively low on the obnoxiousness scale. Where he (and LaTroy, especially) get into trouble is when they lose track of the game and go into the comedy act. You can always tell when they're reaching for the joke, which makes it inherently less funny. I thought LaTroy was really good last night when he was talking about pitching and Bremer did a good job setting him up for it when talking about Minaya's pitch repertoire and then again with Alcala. That's when that team shines and makes the game more interesting. When they're looking for things to giggle about it doesn't work as well. but Bremer is a very solid pro who generally gets it right (and corrects himself when he makes a mistake)
  15. jmlease1
    Varland is an interesting prospect. The Twins system depth is pretty high right now so it might be a challenge for him to crack the top 20, but based on performance he should get some serious consideration. He's responded really well to not having a 2020 season, but it still put him a year behind on his development track; you'd like to see him in AA at his age, but it's hard to say he should have skipped A-ball entirely after less than 10 innings in rookie ball and coming from a small school college program. but when a guy executes, you have to reward him for it. I'm guessing he's borderline top 20 for the Twins next year and starts in AA. If he can make that jump he'll be on a good track. I'm not super worried about Balazovic either; yes, he hasn't finished as dominant as we'd like to see, but he's handled the transition to AA pretty well, especially while working on a new pitch. He still looks like a guy who's going to be in line to make his MLB debut at some point in 2022, and I'm happy to have him pitching this late in the year. I'd bet on a spring training looksee and a start in AAA. Duran, Balazovic, Strotman, Winder, Woods-Richardson, Canterino, Sands...nice group of guys with good upside to compete for shots in the rotation after the injuries/ineffectiveness hits for the MLB club. (right now, I'm betting on the rotation being: "best FA starter we can get", Pineda, Ryan, Ober, and Dobnak/reclamation project flyer out of spring training with the 7 guys I listed above getting looks in spring training and fighting for their shot by May. Duran could grab the 5th spot if he's healthy out of spring training...) The upside on these 7 guys is higher than guys like Thorpe or Jax, so hopefully the talent pays out.
  16. jmlease1
    You're more of a hate stylist? (tm Tom Hanks)
  17. jmlease1
    Well, some of this context has already been done at places like Baseball America and FanGraphs; didn't take hours to track it down, more like 10 minutes. But you're putting forward the analysis of the front office's draft ability, so it's fair game if you've missed something important, and I think you have. But the biggest problem with this as a blog post for me is that the thesis feels incoherent. Almost everything you're presenting is highly critical of the front office's draft results and strategy...but then you tell us that the final grade is still ok and you're not calling for them to be fired like an Uber driver. If you believe that their strategy is wrong, that they're making a lot of mistakes, and that their drafts are not panning out and should have better results by now, then stick with it. Don't cop out and tell me a "C" grade is ok; tell me why you're right to give them what will be perceived as a pretty crummy grade.
  18. jmlease1
    I don't think your expectation is borne out by baseball draft history. Sure, for a top 5 pick like Royce Lewis the expectation is that he's going to be a major league player, and have a good chance at being more than that. And those top five picks almost always get to the majors and with at least some success. But first round picks still bust all the time, and expecting that the twins picks are going to be immune to that doesn't make sense to me. Falvey has had 1 top 5 pick (#1 overall), 1 pick in the top 15, and everything else 20 or lower. If all these guys make the majors it'd be amazing
  19. jmlease1
    You're a tough grader. I don't think most fans are going to consider a C to be acceptable? I also think you're skipping an analytical component in this: signing status on the pick. We got Enlow because we were able to go above slot on him. Why did we have the resources available? Lewis was a guy we didn't have to go high on to get him to sign, and Rooker was signed below slot. but the bigger issue is you explicitly say player development is separate from drafting...but your grades seem very much tied to the player development side of things, as you evaluate these players today on their progress in the system and projection in the future. For example: Landon Leach got crushed in this analysis, but he did fine in his initial exposure to rookie ball and then got hurt/lost a season to the pandemic. (btw, he was a HS selection not a collegiate one)
  20. jmlease1
    I think Colome is likely to have a solid season next year and be a good-to-very good closer. I think his option is pretty reasonable. but I think the Twins might not pick it up just because the fanbase might have too much PTSD from the early season disaster. Colome still has a negative WPA (hard to dig out of that hole when you have so many brutal outings early and the teram overall being so bad later) but the ERA+ is decent. It's harder to argue for regression back to the mean in a player who is getting older, but considering the relative fungibility of relief pitching and Colome's otherwise fine track record...he seems likely to do pretty well next year. Which would be worse for twins fans? bring him back for another go, or watch him leave and pitch at least adequately elsewhere?
  21. jmlease1
    I assumed that the 4 points related to concerns about Donaldson's trade value were: 1. His health, 2. His health, 3. the health he is experiencing, and 4. How much health he has.
  22. jmlease1
    Does Jax have good stuff, though? I'm increasingly unconvinced. He's got good command and control, but he doesn't have a ton of velocity or movement on his fastball and all of his off-speed stuff just seems...ok. He looks like a guy who needs to go back and re-tool something in the offseason to have any hope of surviving as a starter, and without a go-to out pitch I'm not sure he has much future as a reliever except as a long man/mop-up guy. I like the guy and he was worth giving a shot, but...right now he just looks bad. When Berrios was getting his brains kicked in, he still had a lively fastball and a plus curve to work with. Not sure jax has the weapons to compete. I'm confused as to why Moran got sent out for that long of an outing as well. Do they really think he's a 2+ inning guy? With his change-up I still think he's going to be fine, but I'm not sure that 30+ pitch outings are in his wheelhouse
  23. jmlease1
    He's struggled a bit at the plate this year, had a horrid July and been on a tear every since. But his OPS+ is sitting at 103 and takes into account park effects. He's probably going to finish with a bWAR of 3.5-4 but with with his D sliding back a bit from Gold Glove levels and the hot market for SS's...he might not get the deal he's looking for. Maybe he will, but if it's not there and he wants to show that he can get it done outside of Colorado at the plate...there might be a bridge deal available. Figuring out the SS market is going to be interesting, but there definitely should be enough options that the Twins don't have to trade for a guy like Torres.
  24. jmlease1
    I'm a no on this kind of deal and Torres as a good fit for us. the FA market on SS is going to be a really good one this off-season and I'd rather get a guy there than buy low on a Yankee, especially one who is stretched at SS. we already have a bunch of guys who are stretched at SS; if we trade/sign a player for SS they need to not be stretched there. (Trevor Story is the guy I really like right now, but I suspect someone will give him the 4 year $20M deal he probably is looking for...but if it's not there and he wants to go short term to build up his value again away from the Rockies? yes, please.)
  25. jmlease1
    Good to see Strotman have a solid outing. I still have a lot of questions about him, but I wouldn't mind seeing him get a shot before the season ends to see how he reacts to MLB hitters (it's not like Andrew Albers is blocking him). I suspect he'll get a chance to impress in spring training next year and likely start in AAA as one of options 6-10 for the rotation as the season goes on. be interesting to see how he continues to adapt to the organization. If they can make good adjustments with him the way they have with Ober... Any reason Woods-Richardson came out after only 3 innings? I like him as a prospect, but starters only throwing 3 innings in AA doesn't exactly make my socks roll up and down. I think it's fair to rank celestino where he is; should he be up a few more spots? maybe, but I don't know how much difference there is between 10-15 on the list, really. He's bounced back well after being thrown into the MLB lineup too early: could be a great fit as a bench OF next year with defensively flexibility and being a RH hitter helps him as well (an OF rotation of Buxton, kepler, Kirilloff, celestino, and Larnach could be pretty great)
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