jmlease1

Wha-? How exactly did we lose on Dozier? Are you assuming that Dozier would have magically returned to 2017 form if only he played for the Twins? Or is this a claim that the Twins should have been able to get more for him, somehow, even though he hasn't been a quality starter in 2 years (and it sure seems that other teams looked at him and saw a player that was injured and likely to decline back then). And the idea that we can't compete with the White Sox roster just because they signed a good catcher is pretty silly, don't you think? We were 30 games better than they were. I'll take bets right now that the Twins will finish with a better record than the White Sox in 2020. Let's not pretend they have a great lineup or much of a rotation right now, ok? (Giolito was great last year, but also pitched so much better than he ever had before that it might be a fluke year)

They've done a good job overall on dealing MLB players for prospects. The Pressly deal was a miss, even if Celestino makes it, in retrospect because the Twins window for contending opened faster than they thought and Pressly would have been a serious impact arm and right now Alcala looks like a guy who needs to transition to relief to make it to MLB. Celestino has defensive skills who might never hit his way out of the minors. It seemed like we lost that deal at the time and it still does; one of those two needs to take a leap soon or it's a definite loss. The rest of those deals are good ones, especially since all the players we dealt were FA at the end of the season and we weren't making a run in that year. Sure Escobar would have been a nice fit this year instead of Marwin Gonzalez, but the Twins tried to resign him and he decided to stay in AZ. Even if we had kept him around he might have left for another club, so counting this year's numbers against the deal is silly. Sergio Romo showed how fungible old closers are so getting a decent upside pitcher for Rodney is a good one too. I think they've overall got a solid track record on dealing MLB for prospects. Jury is still out on dealing prospects for MLB; the Romo acquisition was solid enough. The Dyson one was a miss., but not a major one. Neither really cost all that much; if Jaylin Davis was still in the organization would he be on the 40 man? Honestly, I think not, so it's hard to get on the FO too much for swinging and missing on Dyson. But they haven't put together a really significant deal packaging a bunch of prospects for a major piece. They're showing they know how to flip guys who aren't in their long term plans for assets, but the next test is whether they can package the right combo into an impact player and call it a win for the franchise.

I was a little surprised they added Celestino; the FO must be pretty high on him. I like Jax, but there's reason to believe he could slide through in part because teams seem to be looking for higher upside guys when considering Rule V picks. Beyond that, even if he gets selected it might be tough for him to stick on the 26-man all season. but that's why i didn't think they'd protect Celestino: even on a bad team he's probably just a defensive replacement who hits very poorly next year. he needs quite a bit of work still. I think they're making the right call on Raley and Blankenhorn: both are getting close to their MLB debut, both have some trade value, both have some positional flexibility that makes them easier to select. We'd lose one of them for sure. I think Javier slides through. It's tough on some of these international players who come over at 16-17 because they really need the development time. Javier isn't even 21 yet and already missed a full season of development time due to a serious injury. Absent the injury, he's either on his way or at AA...or he's no longer a top prospect and has been exposed. the injury makes it a lot tougher to know who he's going to be, and really hard to put him on an MLB roster for the full year. Reasonable decisions by the Twins.

I feel like it's going to be 3 or 4: Duran, Chalmers, Raley, & Blankenhorn (and Chalmers is the most on the bubble for me). Duran is an easy call, Raley is likely MLB-ready and would almost certainly be selected, and Blankenhorn is close enough that a bad team might be willing to stash him. Chalmers is still wild to be effective, but again: a bad team might take a flier on him. I would not be stunned if it was only Raley & Duran. I'm increasingly of the opinion that Jax doesn't have the peripherals to make a team want to dedicate a spot on their 26-man roster for the whole year and he'll slide through, but I could be very wrong. feels like the decision on this comes down to protecting high-upside arms and ready for their debut position players; for everyone else the value of the 40-man spot is too high (and so is the value on the 26-man roster)

Eddie Rosario received comparisons to Kirby Puckett, Mike Trout, & Christian Yelich in this thread. (I'm aware that some of those had the caveat that Eddie needed to add walks to deserve that comp, but still) I think that shows the range of how people value Eddie Rosario. I tend to agree with Nick, I'm afraid. The lack of patience and control of the strike zone is problematic for me, especially because players with that tendency often don't age well. Maybe Eddie was nicked up this year, but that also shows the downside to his approach at the plate: if he's not 100% can he be a plus player? When he's going, he looks like he can hit anything. It's fun as hell. But when he's not going there are long stretches where he can't hit anything. I think his overall value is a tough one. he is good in the clubhouse. he does have big moments. he can carry a team for a stretch. But he's also not a consistent player and the low OBP really hurts him. The power is great, his arm is still excellent, and he can play in both corner spots but his routes have not improved and he made more than few routine catches into adventures or botches last season and it's fair to be concerned that his speed may never come back up. He's never been BAD...but overall he's been a pretty average starter for the twins over 5 years. As he gets more expensive, the concerns are real. this is how guys like CJ Cron are ending up on the market. If your over/under on rosario's bWAR is 1.5 do you want to pay that player $6M? What about if it gets to $8M? Frankly CJ and Eddie are players in a similar sort of situation: useful players on a club, but with limitations. They play positions that are some of the easiest to find replacement. Their price is getting more expensive to where if they have a good year, it's worth it, and if they have a bad one...maybe not. Eddie's the better player and younger to boot but this is not a new story. I think the temperature gets hotter around Rosario's future because we've seen him for 5 years, he's been one of our guys for his whole career to date. I'd argue that makes it easier to see him with Rosario-colored glasses for some, but also easier to feel the frustration mount for others. (see also; Gibson, Kyle)

Gibson is a pretty complicated case because his track record isn't entirely indicative of who he is right now as a pitcher. He made a substantial change to his approach a couple years ago and it had really good results for him. He was giving up fewer hits, getting more Ks and still kept the ball in the park at a respectable rate. Last season he went out there every 5th day or so, but clearly wasn't fully healthy and there's no doubt the ulcerative colitis (combined with the offseason illness) really impacted him. Despite that, he was a pretty solid pitcher in the first half. the peripherals for those first 3 months or so look pretty solid. I'd love to have a healthy Kyle Gibson back as a 4th or 5th guy on a cheap deal. But I don't think he's going to be available for a cheap deal, and I don't know if he's going to be healthy. I certainly don't want him on a multi-year pact right now. 1 year, $6-8M? I'd probably take the flyer on him getting healthy and pitching in the 4 or 5 spot in the rotation. $10-12M? I think someone else can give him that deal and we can find his performance elsewhere. I like the guy, and respect the way he a) overhauled his entire approach to starting, and stepped up and took the ball every 5th day last season. He's got talent and can get guys out. But I don't think there's going to be a match here any longer, because the risk factors coupled with salary is going to be too high.

I would pick Garver off this list too, just because he had a Bonds-ian HR rate. I think he'll have a fine year as the primary catcher, but he literally was at 1 HR every 10 ABs. Expecting that to continue is unrealistic. Second choice is Arraez, because the BABIP was really high, sophomore slumps are real (especially as sophisticate teams get god tape on players at the MLB level), but I don't expect him to fall off the table. He's got great control of the strike zone and the fact that he doesn't expand the zone to hack at everything (even though he can get the bat on almost anything he wants) will serve him well. The bigger question will be his power potential; it's never been an area of strength for him and he was nearly at career highs in SLG% this year. It wouldn't take a big dropoff for him to show real regression, but I do like his future. I think Kepler and Sano are the least likely to regress, and could still take another step forward. Kepler wasn't hitting a bunch of cheap ones and still has room to refine his approach to rip some more line drives that could increase that low BABIP. Sano had a really rough stretch that dragged his total down and any dip in his SLG% could be matched by more selectivity at the plate. We'll see, but he's a legit slugger who could hit 50 HRs if he stays healthy. It's important to remember that with any projection system, they're almost always going to project a regression to the mean. It's really hard to predict who took a sustainable leap forward vs who had a fluke year. but every player on this list is young enough that their production could be sustainable. Garver & Kepler are the vets who never showed this before, but Polanco and Sano have. Arraez is a rookie, so anyone who absolutely knows about him needs to either be in Vegas or working in the FO...

I think smeltzer could be an effective bullpen piece, or as a 1-2 inning "opener". Which could be really useful! If odorizzi is back and struggles to get out of the 6th, maybe Smeltzer becomes his partner in games: Odo does 1-5, Smeltzer does 6-7, May/Duffy/Romo (who i still kinda want back)/Rogers combo finishes off 8-9. Instead of a long man that only gets used in blowouts, you've got 1-2 guys who you plan for them to go 2 innings when they get in the game, regardless of matchups. so maybe your pitching staff is set up more like this: 5 starters, 2 bridge guys, 5 for late & close. Your bridge guys never pitch on back to back days, but their expectation is that they're going to come in and give you 2 innings. maybe you still need that 13th pitcher based on your staff, but it's a bridge guy. I may be a crazy person, I admit it freely.

Look, I like Rosario but there simply no way you can look at his numbers as being "MVP candidate numbers". Mike Trout had 1/3 more HR in roughly the same amount of games with nearly 140 additional points in OBP and nearly 150 pts in SLG%. (while playing far superior defense at a much tougher position) That's an MVP season...and there's decent odds he loses out this year to Bregman. Rosario wasn't even one of the top three hitters on his own team this year, even taking defense completely out of it. He's a useful player, has at times been a good player, and the totality of his contributions (including staying healthy, which is a valuable skill) have been good for the Twins but there's simply no way he's an MVP candidate.

I think this is right. While I think Kirilloff is a better player than the options in AAA and will surpass them all, it doesn't mean that he's ready for MLB pitching. He won't be the first guy that gets a look for an injury replacement, but I think he does hit his way on to the roster at some point in 2020. I'm not worried about the drop in power; that was clearly related to the wrist injury and he should be fine after a winter to recover fully from the season. he looked great down the stretch again and the only real concern is that he might need to be a bit more patient at the plate. I'd prefer to see his OBP sitting in the .380 range or higher, but he's shown decent enough patience and you can't fault a kid for an aggressive approach when he's hit .362 before! I'm not looking to give Eddie Rosario the bum's rush out of town, but I feel a lot better about our ability to replace him in the lineup with a player like Kirilloff waiting in the wings. I like the fact that he can hit for a high average, keep the Ks reasonable, and still hit for power. Potentially a very dangerous bat with runners on base. I'm pegging him to get an audition in 2020 and get penciled in to start in 2021, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit is way onto the club and then refuse to let go (a la Luis Arraez).

The problem with Rosario is his defense just doesn't look like it's going to be very good going forward (two of the last three years his defensive runs saved/total zone rating metrics have put his dWAR into the tank) and with his plate discipline collapsing again he's become a decent player, not a cornerstone. If he could add one more BB per week and get his defense back to par, sure he's a plus starter. But the odds of his defense improving with his speed declining aren't great and he's had more years where he's a pure hacker at the plate than not. He's not a replacement level player, but he was a below average starter and there's legitimate reason to be concerned he's trending in the wrong direction. Much as I think relievers can be pretty fungible from year to year, Taylor Rogers is right in his prime. He looks like a perfect candidate to one of those old school "buy out the arbitration years for cost certainty" deals and maybe tack on one extra year. Rogers gets security and doesn't have to go through arbitration, the Twins get cost certainty and don't have to go through arbitration (and maybe another year of team control) and everyone is happy. I'd try for an extension with Sano; even if he can't stick at 3B long term, there's no question that he can play there for at least the next couple of seasons; 1B could be open by then, DH will almost certainly be open after Cruz's contract ends and his power absolutely plays. Yes, there are going to be big K stretches, but come one: the power plays. Sano isn't a juiced ball guy, he hits moonshots. He will get the walks, there's plenty of value there and the injury at the start of the season was a fluky thing. Yes, I want him extended; he might hit 50 dingers next year. Buxton...oh, Byron Buxton. Tough one. I love the guy, his D is amazing and it looked like he was figuring some things out at the plate. The health is a HUGE concern. I suspect he won't go for an extension because he'd be buying low on himself and I don't think his representation would advise it or he would accept it. It's worth exploring, but I don't see him accepting a deal that's based on his actual performance and with his health concerns and lack of MLB track record as a hitter, so I don't see an agreement. Berrios: absolutely extend him. He's a #1 starter in my mind (are there 20 starters out there you'd take over Jose Berrios?) and is a terrific anchor for the rotation. He makes his starts, he eats up innings, he gets Ks and is a tough pitcher. I want him in the rotation for the next 5 years minimum. Hopefully they can get it done, but he seems awfully willing to bet on himself.

Agreed on Jax; if you want to keep him you have to add him; he's definitely a guy who could pitch some middle relief for a crap team, or spot start. Duran is an easy call. Chalmers...man, I don't know. There's some interesting upside there, but his control is still rough. I feel like he's a guy who might get claimed but would end up being returned once a team realizes that they can't really send him out to mop up and he's not developing sitting on the back of the bench. But if he's claimed, does that screw up his development path so badly you might not even be able to get him straightened out? I think he might slide through, but the team seems high on him so maybe they don't want to take the risk. Raley and Blankenhorn are worth adding; both could contribute as soon as next season, there's at least some positional flexibility there...I think these are guys you want in your system for depth or trade at worst. Celestino...there's talent there, but there's no way he's ready to hit in the majors. Would a team claim him to sit as a defensive replacement all year? Seems unlikely to me. He's barely had a cup of coffee in high A. Kepler was a much higher rated prospect at the time, but the Twins also had a lot more chum on their 40-man, too. I think he slides through and isn't protected. Javier is the really tough call, I think. There's still so much potential, but he's still a looooong way away. I like the kid, but 40-man spots do have value. With more teams tanking and having the 26th slot could a team grab him and just stash him for the season? It's probably more likely now than it was 5 years ago, so i think he might get a spot. I think this is the hardest call of any of them.

It's true that 2013 is looking like a down year (although players like Tim Anderson and Hunter Dozier are certainly going to be adding value to their clubs for the next few years); only Aaron Judge has really emerged as a great player. 2014 is definitely looking much more productive already...but it doesn't change the fact that the Twins had a top 5 pick bust. But your math is a little arbitrary. here's what round 1 looked like post twins pick for bWAR in 2019 and career-wise for players with 2+ bWAR: Austin Meadows (3.8 in 2019, 3.6 career), Hunter Renfroe (2.6 & 6.2), Tim Anderson (4.0 & 10.2), Marco Gonzalez (3.2 & 5.4), Aaron Judge (5.4 & 18.6), Sean Manaea (1.4 & 8.7), Michael Lorenzen (2.0 & 4.4), Corey Knebel (0.3 & 4.3) Which doesn't even include Hunter Dozier, who was 2.1 bWAR in 2019 after a rough 2018. but Kohl Stewart was the start of a stretch that hasn't gone so great for the twins in drafts: Stewart, Nick Gordon (jury still out, looks like an MLB player to me in the next year either with the twins or elsewhere) and Tyler Jay (out of baseball). Two out of three years busting on your first round pick when all three of them fell between 4-6 is rough on an organization.

I like Hamels in that scenario. I do not like Hamels on a 3 year deal. I'm not sure I like Hamels on a guaranteed 2 year deal, with the velocity dipping and his distinct slide in the second half. I think you'd have to get serious about NBA-style "load management" with him to make sure he's effective come fall.

I was surprised at Gonsalves getting dropped, but the more I think about it, the less surprised I am. 2019 was a lost year and there were some really worrisome indicators in 2018, despite some good results. The jump in BBs in 2018 was a bad sign and his loss of control exploded when he got a taste in MLB. If the velocity is down, coming back off an injury year, at age 25 (not 26), with control problems, and the elbow is where the problem is...he's not looking like a great bet. He's looking like a AAAA player whose chance to be more is getting wiped out by injury. I held out a lot of hope on Kohl Stewart; I thought with his ability to keep the ball in the park and avoid hard contact, he might be a useful back of the rotation guy, but he just couldn't finish off batters. I still think there's room in this league for guys who don't rack up huge K totals, but you have to be able to get some, and Stewart just doesn't get enough. The other thing is, if you're going to give up contact you can't also hand out the free passes. It's too many base runners to survive, even if you can get a bunch of DPs. The WHIP for Stewart tells the story, i think; he never got it under 1.3 in any level past A-ball. he's a bust and another red flag on the dangers of taking a HS pitcher too high. I'm a big no on Perez coming back. Teams figured out the cutter once they got enough tape on it, and while the ability to throw a bunch of innings is in fact a skill, the twins should aim higher, even for a LH specialist, because for as good as he was against lefties, he got smoked against righties and I don't want to waste a spot on a LOOGY

Smart move by the Twins. $18M is a bit of an overpay for Odorizzi, but it's worth the premium for the 1 year deal if he accepts. I would prefer a 3 year deal with him at a lower AAV (3/$45?) but that might not be realistic. It might take a 4th year to induce him to sign a multi-year deal, or he might insist on a higher AAV. Regardless, this fills a spot in the rotation with a quality starter. If Jake Odorizzi is our #3 starter going into the season, that's not bad at all.

he takes walks and he's cheap. Can play both corner OF spots at need, DH, and can hit in any spot in the order without complaint. I wouldn't want to start a Grossman, but there have been years where we sure could have used him as a 4th OF. The upside is limited, but the floor is pretty good. I agree with Seth; you don't deal rosario just to deal him, especially because it risks your depth if Rooker/Kirilloff/Larnach isn't ready to seize the opportunity. Wade & Cave are decent enough players...who are best suited to be 4th OFs, I think. We don't know for sure how much wade can really hit in MLB and if he can't he won't be as effective drawing walks. Cave looks like he might be better than Rosario with his more patient approach, but he also might get exposed with more ABs. I think there might be some good partners out there, but I'm not exactly in "trade him now" mode. Unless we add another guy to the roster who seems like he might be a little crazy. You only should have 1 of those.

Archer is not going to move the needle that much on the rotation. His value is in chewing up innings while giving you a chance to win, but he's never been dominant. He's really only had one really good season (2015) and has gotten progressively worse every year since. he's a full year older than odorizzi, but in their 8 years in MLB they've been almost exactly as valuable. Archer pitches more innings, odorizzi is more effective in the innings he pitches. I think you have to look at someone like Archer as a pitcher who likely shores up the back end as a 4th starter and you're putting a lot of faith that Wes Johnson can work some magic with him to get more than that. The contract is fine, but are you going to get better results than what you might from an internal option? Gray has better odds of improving the high-end of the rotation, but I suspect he's due for some regression this year. Remember that while he's put up two 5+ bWAR seasons in the last 5 years, he also put up seasons of -0.3 and 0.6 bWAR in that same span (the 3rd season is right in the middle at 2.6 bWAR). Gray is very interesting but there's a lot of risk there, especially for the likely price. I'm very interested in making a deal for Archer if we can sign or otherwise acquire a high-end starter, because i think his floor is still pretty high, he could bounce back and spin a nice year, and we'd be buying low. I think Gray's price tag will be too high for the risk of crapping out. Kershaw and Paddock seem unlikely to be real options, IMHO (but fun to consider for this kind of exercise!)

Cron is a solid player. He played through injury this year and it absolutely harmed his offense, but who knows: it may have harmed his defense too. I'm more than happy to bring him back for another run, and if he wants to bet on himself with a 1-year deal I'd be open to it. The difference between paying him $5M this year and $7m next year isn't all that significant to our payroll and if he put up 2+ bWAR it's a worthy signing. Part of what made this team go this year was raising the floor: fewer bad players in any role is really important. We could hand the job to Sano, but there's risk in putting a less experienced 1B out there. He's probably not going to be as strong at scooping throws in the dirt. Marwin probably has to drop in as the everyday 3B, which reduces some flexibility. we could drop Rooker in at 1B, but he could easily underperform Cron's output, especially as a rookie adjusting to MLB pitching. Marwin's solid there defensively, but is below average offensively at 1B and again we lose his flexibility. La Tortuga? Yeah...no. Sorry. I love the dude, but he's not a great player and he's not an every day player they way he flails at anything. Cron is solid even with a repeat of last year and there's something to be said for certainty.

I'll take that bet. Absent a career-ending injury in like spring training, Nick Gordon will make it to the majors. I don't know if he'll be good, great, or a bust but I'm pretty damn certain Nick Gordon plays in MLB. Frankly, he's very likely to play this season. If not for the untimely injury last season, he probably would have played for us last season in MLB.

I still like Nick Gordon. It was a tough break for him the injuries this year, because he was playing well and now Arraez has jumped past him on the charts. he's still a guy who has real value and while I'm not opposed to trading him, I don't think this is the offseason to do it, because I expect us to get low-balled on him from everyone. If you love Arraez, you shouldn't hate on Gordon. At age 21 in AA, who hit better? It was actually Gordon. Who hit better at age 22 in AA? Again...it was Gordon. Gordon has more pop in his bat, Arraez has the advantage of never having had a down year adjusting to a level and didn't get injured at the wrong time. Neither are defensive stalwarts. Both are going to hit for average. Arraez is a bit younger. I'd much rather have Gordon on the roster as the possible replacement for Adrianza or as the first call up from AAA for a middle infielder in case of injury then getting an underwhelming return as a throw-in. His player profile has real value, but I think his perceived value around the league is disastrously low and I'm not ok with the concept of "eh, Arraez has passed him so let's move on for whatever bag of balls someone wants to give us".

I'm not sure Raley was really ever ahead of Cave or Wade on the promotion list, especially when we had a need for guys who can play in CF, because Raley is not someone I want patrolling out there. And Rooker was absolutely mashing it if you needed the corner OF/1B/DH guy. But Raley has some talent and might be a very useful player. I'd like for him (and Rooker) to cut down on the Ks; I'm a little worried that both are a little 3 True Outcomes right now and against MLB pitching will be K machines. Perfect choice to send to the AFL after the ankle injury cost him so much time, and hopefully this will help him be positioned to compete in spring training. Regardless of what happens with Rosario, there's room on the roster for another OF, whether it's Cave, Wade, Raley, or Rooker. And as long as Buxton and Kepler are healthy (argh!) it doesn't have to be a guy who plays CF, so why not Raley?

I think part of it was that in addition to his lack of power there's been some (reasonable) concerns about his defense. It's an area that he need to keep working on. but beyond that, he's a young guy who rose very quickly with limited experience. He had a really nice 2016 season at age 19 in Low-A, but basically didn't play for the twins in 2017 (3 games at Ft. Myers). 2018 he did well enough at Ft. Myers to earn a mid-season promotion, but showed a real power deficit in 1/2 a season at AA. Then he made a fast jump from AA to MLB at age 22. The missing season is probably the biggest reason he wasn't on as many people's radar, and then suddenly he's in MLB tearing the cover off the ball. I'm thrilled with his progress and there's no question he's the starting 2B next season. His approach means he should continue to have success getting on base and hitting for a high average, both very useful skills. But let's remember, the August version of Arraez (which is probably what a lot of people thought he might be after 2018) is just kind of another guy. While everyone has a slump or three, we need July or Sept Aaraez for him to be a real force in the lineup.

Ha! I love RT.

I'm always a little leery of starting pitchers going from the NL to the AL these days, especially for a guy that's not a dominating player. That said, Musgrove might be the guy that interests me most: That FIP suggests he was a little unlucky last year, and maybe with Wes Johnson adding a tick or two to the fastball the K/9 jumps up a notch as well. He's going to need some kind of adjustment to really be a quality starter, but there are some things that make him an interesting option. In this homer-happy environment his ability to keep the ball in the park is intriguing. But you would have to think Wes could make some adjustments to improve performance, because he's also never had a positive ERA+ Gray...probably contingent on how much you think getting out of Coors Field for half the season will help him. His career splits suggest it won't necessarily matter that much: he's basically been the same pitcher home or away, so you're relying on an assumption that the secondary impacts of pitching way up there consistently impact performance everywhere. He's had some good seasons, but control is a bit of a problem. Ray gets a ton of Ks and is tough to hit, but man that's a lot of walks! 2017 feels a bit like a fluke year, and I dunno how much I want to give up for 216 or 2019 Robbie Ray? Boyd feels like a waste of time, because I just don't see Detroit dealing him within the division without a substantial premium that I just don't have any interest in paying.