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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Except that last year at this time that's exactly what people were saying about both Lewis and Kirilloff: these were all-star, organizational changing prospects. No, neither was the next Mike Trout, but that's a once in a generation kind of a player! Vlad Guerrero Jr was seen by everyone as a can't miss prospect, an all-star organization changing guy...but he's not Mike Trout either. If that's the scale, no one registers. The only question on Lewis was whether or not he stuck at SS or would be better moved to a different elite defensive position in CF. The only question on Kirilloff was when he would start slashing base hits in MLB. This year, Kirilloff has had some injury issues that are pulling his numbers down, and Lewis hit his first development hiccup. But they're both still great prospects. I'd rather make a smaller move for a bullpen guy than hand over the farm for Bumgarner or even Stroman. (and I think Bumgarner is going to be nigh-impossible to pry away from the Giants since they went on this tear: they're 17-3 over their last 20 and are 2 games back of the wild card in the NL) People are talking like it will take a package headed by Lewis or Kirilloff to get either, along with other pieces and that seems like a Chris Archer overpay to me. Bumgarner moves the needle as a starter but is a summer rental, and Stroman is a nice piece but is more important for being a reliable consistent guy over a season instead of being dominant.
  2. jmlease1
    Some of it depends on what the Jays are looking for, of course. But Larnach seems to be a logical starting point, along with 2-3 other guys. I like Griffin Jax quite a bit and he could be very interesting to a team like Toronto...or they might not think he has much of a future at all. Someone like Gonsalves is a bit of a "sell low" right now, but there's also enough minor league track record to make a team think "we can get him back on track and make them look foolish". Considering some of the 40-man crunch that's pending, the Twins could be looking to package together more of a quantity deal with only 1 top-end player (like a Larnach). How much has Lewin Diaz or Travis Blankenhorn's stock risen with their performances this season?
  3. jmlease1
    At a certain point there's going to be a market correction on batting average in MLB too; right now it's all about power and slugging % but we're already getting to a point where ability to make consistent contact is becoming an underrated skill and a high batting average is also underrated. Having a guy in your lineup who can consistently hit solidly above .300 is a real asset, even if they don't have tons of power, because a hit is, in fact, better than a walk. I think Arraez has a chance to be one of those guys. Even if his BABIP normalizes down more around .330 or so (which it almost certainly will, but that's also not an unsustainable number for a high-contact player with good athleticism) you're still looking at a guy who could be hitting .315 or so with a .370 OBP and be a tremendous asset as a player who can hit almost anywhere in the batting order and be really productive. We'll see how much pitchers are able to adjust their approach to him. There may be some holes in his swing that they haven't found yet, but the approach is really encouraging. I'll admit, I'd really like to have a high batting average guy in the lineup. Feels like it's an underrated asset to have these days for consistent run production.
  4. jmlease1
    wow, Wander Javier is struggling right now. The overall batting line is awful, but the last week & last month are so much worse. Last 28 Days he's "slashing" .074/.182/.103 in 68 ABs. with 30 Ks. Something is broken with him, hope the coaching staff can get him right, because this is absolutely dreadful. That sequence with Rooker getting tossed and other nonsense with the ump...good grief, what happened? Who peed in Alex Tossi's cornflakes, because that was an absurd ump show.
  5. jmlease1
    It's going to be interesting to see how Cody Allen does in AAA. Be great if we were able to "fix" him and have him as a viable option. Basically this is a "did the Angels give up on him too soon or is he cooked" move. Next few weeks are going to be very interesting as some of these prospects audition for a trade possibility.
  6. jmlease1
    first off, we don't actually know that Polanco would be a better defender at 2B than SS; it's been speculated a lot but he really hasn't played there enough for this to be fact. second, we've got a guy in Schoop currently doing very well for us at 2B with a very interesting heir apparent in Arraez that's lead us to being 4th in WAA at 2B (80% of that is Schoop, btw). Neither of these guys can play SS full-time, so why would you preemptively move on from Schoop or bury Arraez as a utility guy to move Polanco over? third, the idea of "get a superior defender at SS" is all well and good in a vacuum, but who is actually going to slot in there and how much do you have to pay to get them? How much offensive drop-off do you have to accept to get the superior defender? who is that superior defender? I like Polanco just fine where he is. We have him on a long-term deal that's outstanding for the team for the value he brings. He's bringing elite overall play at SS and getting other good bats into play at 2B.
  7. jmlease1
    Maybe not the defensive level, but the bat has been elite and the combo has been fantastic for the Twins, who sit quite solidly at #2 in all of baseball in WAA at SS, and that's mostly because of Polanco.
  8. jmlease1
    I will admit, I'm surprised by Kepler. After 3 consecutive years of being basically the same hitter in terms of results (OPS+ of 96, 95, 98 and with very similar BA, OBP, and SLG to go along with it), I will admit I was starting to think kepler might be who he was: an ok hitter & fine defender whose bat plays very well in CF and not so well in a corner spot. Happy to be wrong. career bests all over the place and playing at an all-star level. But Martin Perez is still the biggest surprise for me. He's come back to the pack a bit after having a fantastic stretch moving into the rotation, but he's still a quality starter and he's not someone I would have bet on at all to start the season. I figured he was a flyer Levine took because he liked the guy from Texas and didn't expect much. He's been important, especially since the AAA guys I had higher hopes for have struggled.
  9. jmlease1
    Probably a still injured/recovery May, IMHO. Wrist injuries can nag at a hitter for a bit and until they're fully recovered, it's going to drag people down. It's one of the reasons I've been pleased with the MLB club not rushing player back from those kinds of injuries this season. Very good news for Kirilloff, who I think is going to be an impact bat sooner rather than later for the team. (Maybe replaces Rosario, if his price tag gets too high? Maybe Cron?)
  10. jmlease1
    I'm almost as excited about Blankenhorn's 2 BBs as I am about his 16th HR. If he can add in patience to go with his unlocked power, he's going to be a dangerous hitter with a big future.
  11. jmlease1
    Blankenhorn continues to do well. Would like to see him draw a few more walks; he might need to tighten up his approach a bit more in order to keep advancing, but it's great to see how much he's done to unlock the power potential. Nick Gordon's looking solid. He's been under the radar a bit with Arraez doing so well in getting called up, but there's definitely something there.
  12. jmlease1
    Still no 3-game losing streak for this squad. That's pretty amazing. The power depth of the lineup is what's really remarkable.There's just no one out there that a pitcher can groove a fastball to and feel any confidence they won't hammer it. Cron, Kepler, Rosario, Sano, Cruz, Polanco, Buxton...all slugging over .500. That's absolutely ridiculous to have 7 guys doing that (and Garver's there too; swap Castro out of the starting lineup and we could have 8 guys over that). Even the Yankees can't do pull that off. (even healthy, they top out at 5 or 6 right now) Love seeing this out of Kepler too. He'd been scuffling a bit recently, so it's good to see him come back from the elbow ding with a couple of HRs.
  13. jmlease1
    I can live with Jeffers placement here, but I still think Rortvedt should be ranked above him. He's a better catcher and he's advanced to a higher level successfully at a younger age. Jeffers has a better hit tool, but it's going to have to improve even more if he can't stick behind the plate; right now does he project as a slugging 1B or corner OF? We're already seeing more and more teams get away from concept of a DH-only player, and I suspect the twins will be one of those team once Cruz's contract expires: only a really special hitter will be afforded that opportunity. And I question putting Wallner up this high. I get the SSS issues with Arraez's performance in MLB, but even if his BABIP dropped by 125 pts he'd still be playing great. He's hit pretty much every level he's played at (mediocre at AA in 2018, but that was also a midyear promotion coming off a year he basically didn't play, otherwise...he's always hit) and may just be unlocking his power potential now that he's maturing (and gotten in better shape). He's probably not a long-term guy at SS, but that's more than ok. He's not going to hit .400 all year, but there's reason to believe that he can be a 2B/3B/fill in at SS player who can hit .300/.375/.400 consistently...and maybe even find a little more pop in the bat.
  14. jmlease1
    Kinda feels like prospects get pushed down the rankings the higher they ascend in the system in favor of guys who might project better? It's the only reason I can really think of dropping the ranking on Rortvedt who is having a fine season, showing continued improvement at the plate and behind it. Considering how challenging it is for most clubs to develop quality catchers who can actually swing the bat effectively, I wouldn't be thinking about dropping him down. I think it's fair to push Baddoo down; while it's entirely due to injury, health is a significant factor in a) the development time of a player, and their ability to contribute. This may not impact him long-term, but it is going to cost him a year of development time and that can start to get important when you start factoring in the 40-man. I was ready to give up on Blankenhorn. I wasn't seeing much that was going to make him an impact player, and I'm thrilled to be wrong. He seems to have thoroughly re-worked his approach and unlocked his power potential. Great news for a guy i thought was on the verge of flaming out.
  15. jmlease1
    I definitely miss Buxton these days, but the good thing about an 8.5 game lead is you can wait until a guy is actually fully recovered. If Kepler needs to miss some time, though it ramps up the need for him to return. We haven't had a bunch of major injuries, but we're starting to see a few minor ones pile up. Those hurt too, but the depth we have should carry us through. Great to see the offense get going again. Sano's 3Ks was not great, though. If he can't catch up to 95mph fastballs, he's not going to be an effective hitter. Wonder if he might get sent down once Marwin returns? Feels like he needs a reset.
  16. jmlease1
    He had a bad game, but he's been pretty good overall at the plate this year. He's scuffling a bit right now, but let's not go crazy over a couple of games. He puts up 2-3 more 0-fers in a row, then maybe start wondering.
  17. jmlease1
    This. I like some of the 26-30 better than this crew too. (Raley, Diaz, Smeltzer are guys worthy of flipping) Heck, I think I like Griffin Jax better than Colina. Gonsalves is having a lost season; you have to wonder if he's going to pitch again this year. Unfortunately, I'm betting on surgery at this point. Hard to rank him right now with injury. There are some guys I like in this pack (Miranda, Severino) but you have to squint a little to envision high end results on all of them. But there's things to like.
  18. jmlease1
    Looking like a lost season for Gonsalves. That's too bad. Gordon doing a nice job to regain some of his prospect luster this season. If Gordon wasn't dinged up to start the year and if Arraez hadn't knocked the cover off the ball when given the opportunity in MLB I think we might have seen him get a shot in the majors this year. Now his fate is a bit more up in the air, but you have to think he's become more interesting as a trade prospect.
  19. jmlease1
    Rortvedt, Blankenhorn, Diaz have all gotten a promotion from A+ to AA and continued to succeed. Is Larnach going to be next on the promotion list out of Ft. Myers? While Royce Lewis hasn't dominated like we might have hoped and Kirilloff has struggled with some injuries, there's some good success stories moving up into the higher levels of the minors.
  20. jmlease1
    The depth in the system is pretty excellent. Hopefully we'll use it wisely to improve the club this year before the deadline. I'm a Griffin Jax guy. I know he doesn't have the sexy K rates, but I think he knows how to pitch, and there's a place for a guy like him. if he improves the slider a bit more he might get the Ks up another notch.
  21. jmlease1
    Sano needs to get the Ks under control. He can still play and be a useful player, but 3-4Ks per game is not sustainable. He's got to start making better contact and working the zone again to get more walks. It's great that he''s still hitting some HRs and the power is still there, but he's become very one dimensional now, and thats not good enough. But I agree: not a lot of good options until Gonzalez or Adrianza return. CJ Cron has been an outstanding addition this year. He had a slower start to the year, has had a few dry spells, but he's come out of them quickly enough and having a very good year at the plate. And the D is better than advertised. Really pleased with Cron, he's going to be a tough decision next year I think. And gotta tell ya: not missing Tyler Austin. Is anyone?
  22. jmlease1
    The reality is Jake Cave may in fact be a AAAA player: good enough to smack around AAA pitchers, but not good enough to perform at MLB consistently. It's too early to be sure, but it's not an uncommon thing. Rooker is really impressing right now. Yes, the K rate is a bit scary, but everything else is elite. The power absolutely plays, he's finding enough ways to get on base (dude has gotten hit a LOT already to go with the walks)...he's having his best season as a pro. I dunno if his future is with us or with another team (not a lot of room for him right now) but he sure looks like he has one. Glad to see Kirilloff back in the lineup. Hope he stays healthy. Blankenhorn clearly seems to have figured something out, he's showing terrific power now. Would like him to start showing a bit better discernment at the plate; if he can trade a few Ks for BBs he's going to be a scary player. Is he getting much time in the infield?
  23. jmlease1
    I had hopes for Kohl Stewart this season, because he showed some potential in his MLB stints that he could be a guy who could grind up some innings and stay out of too much trouble with lots of ground balls and guys having trouble squaring up on him. But he hasn't taken that next step forward, and seems to be regressing. It's hard to feel like he's ever going to live up to his potential as the #4 overall pick.
  24. jmlease1
    Another good week for the Twins. Sure there were some misfires, but 4-2 is 4-2. Makes it hard for a team to gain much ground on them when they keep winning 2/3 of their games and we're seeing a lot of really good, but non-fluky performances. Gibson is right back to last year's run and is lining himself up for a very nice contract in the offseason. The changed approach he brought last year works for him and now that he's past the injury-driven start (a major illness like an e.coli infection is just as much an injury as a pulled muscle or a staph infection and it takes time to get past all the rehab) he's looking very strong and a good partner for berrios. The success from Polanco and Kepler is really exciting. two guys who signed long-term extensions where there was a real question whether they would be worth the commitment (not necessarily even in the dollars but for the spot in the lineup) and both have crushed it.
  25. jmlease1
    every time I see an umpire start making a dramatic pause before calling a strike or an out, I think to myself "there's a guy who isn't confident in what he's calling and trying to cover it". Not usually a good sign. But the Twins really have no one to blame but themselves for letting this one slip away. Loads of opportunities with the bases full and they didn't hammer it through. I'm also getting a bit more nervous about the D. Rosario is getting sloppier out there, Sano has piled up quite a few errors in a hurry and it seems to be hitting a lot of guys all at once. I think they'll be fine, but they need to tighten it up a little. Another terrific game from Kepler who is quietly having an all-star season, easily his best yet. The extension the Twins signed with him is looking almost as smart as Polanco's. He's finally taken that offensive leap forward and the defense plays every night whether it's in RF or CF. Hopefully he doesn't do a late season swoon this year; that's really about the only potential knock left.
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