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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    No no no no no no no. We already have Cruz under contract for next season (as soon as the option is picked up). Extending a 40-year old player beyond the additional year you have them coming off a big, but injury-impacted year is terrible planning, especially for a position that is limited to DH. You can go year-to-year on Cruz and if someone swoops in after next season (if he has another boomstick year) and overpays him, so be it. But you don't lock down a multi-year deal for a 40+ DH. Twins played that one perfectly last year: 1 year with a team option. Now we pick up the option and smile, and even if he craters next year, the team is fine. I would absolutely throw big money at Cole, because the window is open and he's elite. You pay elite guys. My preference is they go big after a top starter, someone who has ace qualifications and can compete for Cy. Put 50% of the resources available on that one. Bring back odorizzi for another run; If he's your #3 you're in good shape, even knowing that he's rarely going to go 7 and will likely get pulled in the 6th. 3 years @ $15-17M could get it done. I'd toss $8-10M at a back-end guy so you're feeling confident in 4 slots to start the year. I think you can try fill 1 spot in the rotation internally; it's too much risk to go for 2, especially because with injuries and possible ineffectiveness you'll need other starters to come up anyways. The problem is, there aren't very many top-end starters that can be had. Would I offer 6/$220M for Cole? Yes, I would. the window is open, let's go for it. Will he come here for that? Will he come even if it's 6/$240M? We just don't know. Pineda keeps coming up. I would consider him, but I want a little discount and I want either a 2nd year or a team option. The suspension (and how it hamstrung the team this year) is a problem.
  2. jmlease1
    I'm so happy the Twins got the HR record. Screw the Yankees. Of course, since the Yankees didn't get it, no one is talking about it but that's just another reason to hate ESPN(Y). It would have been nice to tie the '65 squad, but I have no regrets about this team. They've been tremendously fun to watch all year. It's a really easy team to like, and you never feel completely out of any game. On to the playoffs!
  3. jmlease1
    I would try for the extension. I think there's little chance of a 6 year deal, because of where that puts Sano when his FA would come up. He's got a much better chance of getting the gigantic 5-6 year deal at age 30 than he does at age 32. 4 years and $50-60M might get it done. That would get him more on the front end and give himself some protection against injury & position change value loss and still save the Twins some on the back end if he keeps crushing the ball. Because the AAV on his contract if he hits FA at age 28 will start at $20M+
  4. jmlease1
    I really want the Twins to end up with the HR record. The Yankees ballpark is a joke, the Yankees suck, and I'm sick of the national media freakin' out anytime something happens in NY and ignoring everything that happens in MN.
  5. jmlease1
    Randy Dobnak. Who knew? It's a heck of a rise in one season, but the results have been good. A formula of keeping the ball in the park, not issuing a lot of walks, and missing enough bats that hitters can't just wait on a pitch is still workable in MLB...especially keeping the ball in the park. In this homer-happy environment, could that be an underrated skill? I'm a little concerned that as teams get more tape on him that someone is going to find an exploitable flaw (and he has been a little lucky to date) but right now sure seems to be the time to ride that horse and worry about tomorrow, tomorrow. Another terrific performance from arraez. We're starting to get outside of SSS territory; maybe he's just going to be one of those high-average hitters! Man, that would be awesome.
  6. jmlease1
    I like Rortvedt; hope he can end up hitting enough to make it. The defensive tools are there, i think. But Jeffers may already have passed him in the organizational rankings because of his bat. That said, it's nice to have to prospects moving up in the catching ranks again; it was pretty empty there for a while! Chalmers is really interesting. If he can keep the BBs to a manageable number, he could rise really quickly. There's no question he's got the stuff, but whether he can control it enough to be a real starter will be his question until he proves it. If he gets that bb/9 in around 3.5 he's going to be scary. If he's hanging around 6, it won't matter how nasty the stuff is, because no one will bother swinging at it until he grooves one. nice start in the AFL, glad to see him getting some work there.
  7. jmlease1
    I think right now we're seeing whether or not Gibson in the 'pen makes sense, and if he can't hold up or be effective he gets left off the roster in round 1 in favor of someone like Smeltzer or Thorpe (both of whom gives you another LHP option) I think 13 position players and 12 pitchers is the right mix. Agree on the position players; I just don't see room for Astudillo on this roster. While his positional flexibility gives him value, his lack of control of the strike zone throws it all away. He's just not hitting. Not this week, not last week, not last month...not since March/April. I'd much rather have LaMonte Wade as an option; his approach at the plate is valuable in the postseason and I think he's overall more reliable defensively than Cave. Cave is the bubble guy for me if Adrianza is healthy enough to play, I'm afraid. Cave's defense is a little shaky, Adrianza has actually been a better hitter (and is a switch hitter) and I'm more than comfortable putting Marwin in the OF.
  8. jmlease1
    nice win. Odorizzi looks like he's in good form to start in the playoffs. I was surprised to see Gibson get the call with the game still very much in doubt considering how he's been struggling lately, but maybe he can be a long guy who can give you 2-3 innings in a bullpen game? Looks like Cleveland is going to try and run off a big win streak to end the season, so the twins are just going to have to do it on their own. 2 more wins gets the division and makes them the 2nd winningest team in franchise history. Very good chance at hitting 100 wins. I freely admit, I did not have this team anywhere near that number. I thought they were more likely to hit 85 or so and if a few things broke right they could maybe pop 90 and contend for the division. Thrilled to have been wrong, because this is one of the most fun twins teams I've ever watched.
  9. jmlease1
    The tools are there, but it's like he just doesn't really know how to pitch. terrific velocity with some movement on the fastball. A nasty hard slider that's hard to hit. He's got some weapons, but maybe he just can't control it? I'm glad to see him getting some time so we can see what he looks like against MLB hitters, but clearly he's got a ways to go. Maybe working with the MLB staff and getting plenty of video on him will help them develop the right offseason program for him?
  10. jmlease1
    Staggering? They just won 3 out of 4 and won the series. They've won their last three series despite still dealing with a slew of injuries. If that's staggering, sign me up.
  11. jmlease1
    Chili definitely comes to mind; 3.3 bWAR in the first year, 2.0 in the second year and really filled a need on the club (much like Nelson Cruz did; as I recall DH was one of those positions we weren't doing great at in the early 90's). Thome was great, but not as reliable as Chili. Do you give extra credit for team performance? Chili was an offensive catalyst on the team that won a title. Jack Morris was the pitching catalyst in the same year (good year by McPhail!) Brian Harper probably wins this one in total bWAR, but never had any really big years, just 5 straight really solid ones. Ervin Santana is an interesting question: more limited first-year impact followed by two stellar seasons which is time here colored by a disastrous final season.
  12. jmlease1
    Tom Verducci at SI has been pushing this for years, but that stats haven't borne it out. It makes a great deal of intuitive sense, but it doesn't mean that it's a real thing. I like Graterol in the bullpen for this offseason, but I want him starting next year. The changeup needs work, and he'll need a 3rd offering to real lock it in as a starter in MLB, but I think he can do it. And while I'd love it to be the change, he could also be a guy who makes it work with 2 different fastballs and that nasty slider if the change doesn't come around. Let him compete for the rotation out of spring training, and if the change or other 43rd offering isn't ready for prime time, he can keep working in AAA (which may be a better training ground for pitchers than it was with them using the MLB ball now) until he's ready. I think he's got a solid chance to be starting next year. I think any innings limit should be based on how his shoulder is doing during the year, not based on arbitrary numbers.
  13. jmlease1
    My only question is whether the Twins will reach 100 wins for only the second time in team history? 5-3 in the last 8 seems very doable and cracks the century mark for their second-best record overall, behind only 1965. It's been a pretty amazing season, and a very enjoyable one for a fan. A nice win against a KC team that is not very good, but plays the Twins hard. Time to get the win on Sunday!
  14. jmlease1
    This. every fly ball the twins hit were well in an OF's range. the line drives seemed to go right to someone. Sometimes you don't find the holes. Odorizzi looked good, his control was where it needed to be and he was working effectively up in the zone and finishing guys off. Sure, the ChiSox ain't the '27 Yankees, but they're also not Det or Mia
  15. jmlease1
    I think this is right. The general lack of power previously is going to engender some skeptics, the high BABIP as well. heck the OBP could be a fluke year shot and he'll never be over .400 again. It's fair (especially for those who aren't seeing him every day) to be a little skeptical about how well he'll project. There's just so many outliers all over the place. That said, there's so many things to like about his approach at the plate that there's reason to believe it could be mostly repeatable. The plate discipline & hand-eye coordination are exceptional. He may be one of those guys that just doesn't have any holes in his swing and keeps shooting balls to the OF...and considering today's pitching approach, he may get those opportunities. Because he's not a HR hitter, pitchers will challenge him. He's almost certainly not going to hit .350 next year. Doesn't mean he can't hit .320 with an OBP .380-.400 and be a real force at the top of the lineup. Power is important, but simply getting hits is becoming an underrated and undervalued skill in baseball and Arraez has it.
  16. jmlease1
    Berrios looked good last night. It was pretty fun listening to Joe Mays come in the booth and marvel at the movement on his curve, nice little interlude but also added something to the broadcast. (and refreshing contrast to the "in my day, everyone was tougher/better/smarter" stories you sometimes get) Arraez just keeps on hitting. He's not going to be a power bat, but I think he'll be able to shoot enough balls into gaps to maintain a respectable enough slugging % to go with a mighty high BA & OBP. He's an absolute keeper at 2B.
  17. jmlease1
    Frustrating game to watch, because the Twins didn't pitch too badly (other than Gibson's meatball) and the hitting was there, but oh my the D was ugly. Schoop's concentration was just not there, the dropped ball on what should have been a fairly routine double play was just a killer. Rosario's bizzarro route on the fly ball he failed to corral was, shall we say, Delmon-esque. (Yuck) Still and all, a good series overall. Let's just finish off the division and get everyone healthy (in that order).
  18. jmlease1
    Can we call out everyone at the FAN for giving up on the Twins too? Power Trip, Common, and Barreiro all buried the Twins on Friday, declared this series the beginning of the end for the club, blah blah blah. That made the doubleheader sweep even sweeter, I gotta say. I love the depth and resilience of this club. Bullpen has really been stepping up, and its great to see.
  19. jmlease1
    Can't you just a little, though? If he was a better hitter, he would have gotten a promotion. I'm not saying I'd weight it like I would the prospect ratings, but when you're naming the Minor League Hitters of the Year, ignoring it completely seems a bit off because it suggests a player is better than they really are. Like all twins minor leaguers, I'm rootin' for the guy, but...I dunno if he belongs on the list.
  20. jmlease1
    How much do you guys take into account age/level? Because I look at Gabe Snyder clocking in at #8 and I just don't see it. He's 24 in low-A ball and was...fine? I'm much more impressed with Travis Blankenhorn who had a fairly similar batting line against better competition in tougher environments and at a younger age.
  21. jmlease1
    This is only a playoff litmus if you expect Kepler, Gonzalez, & Sano to be injured/unavailable in the playoffs. We didn't exactly have the full squad out there last night on offense...or defense.
  22. jmlease1
    Nelson Cruz: professional hitter. I was enthusiastic about the Cruz signing. I recall a number of people not being thrilled about signing an aging RH slugger who could only play DH because it was likely going to push someone like Tyler Austin off the roster. (I was never an Austin guy, and I think his time in SF proved me right, though he's provided a nice boost for Milwaukee in limited time) One of the reasons I was enthusiastic about Cruz was his LHP/RHP splits: Cruz hit everyone. Historically, he's destroyed LHP but he's also been terrific against RHP. His career hitting splits are kind of amazing, frankly. There's little difference between home & away. There's little difference between 1st half & 2nd half. There's little difference between him in the field vs DHing. There's no holes in his hit tool and his consistency is a skill. He might fall off the table next season (I'm not betting against him, though) and I'm sure he's benefited from the ball this year...but I really don't care. He's been fantastic for the twins this year and it was a great signing.
  23. jmlease1
    Terrific start by Berrios, hopefully it's just what he needed to get back/stay on track. I thought his command looked better tonight; really looked like he was putting his pitches where he wanted them. Sure, there were misses around the plate, but when he was missing a pitch it was by inches on one plane, not by 6-8+ and occasionally on 2. The velocity looked good, hitting 95 often enough. They still may want to look to find him some extra rest before the playoffs, though i know it's tougher right now with no days off and still being in a pennant race. Beautiful dinger by Garver. Just majestic. we need his bat in the lineup right now.
  24. jmlease1
    I suspect Rowson will get mentioned and probably at least 1 interview. Zoll certainly should be on someone's radar and much as I would prefer to keep this team intact I wouldn't be shocked at all if either of those two (or both) got swept up by another franchise. I'm going to guess less likely on Adler in part because he's lower profile but also because his role is one where I think a lot of teams still probably think they can invent their own. But YMMV. I'm amused at the anti-Falvine comments. Coupled with the instant overreactions to every win/loss/injury/event these tell me one singular fact: the Twins are now relevant enough again for people to get invested in and at least occasionally lose their minds over.
  25. jmlease1
    Nice win last night. Wish Odorizzi could have finished off the 6th; it's a little frustrating how often he seems to hit a wall in that inning no matter how well he's been rolling, but he did the job last night. I can't hate on Rosario too much for his AB; he took what should have been ball 4, but Diaz had a really inconsistent strike zone and I think everyone knew it. Makes it hard to ask a hitter to keep taking pitches, and you still want guys to go up to the plate looking for a pitch to drive. Twins are weirdly bad with the bases loaded this season. It's the flukiest stat of the whole season that a team hitting this well, with so much power, is doing so poorly with the bases loaded. Sure, we have a bunch of guys who K a lot, but this is a total outlier. It would be really nice to get a series win today and bury Cleveland, but getting last night's win was the really important one. Making sure to avoid the sweep is massive and really puts the pressure back on Cleveland. Hopefully this calms down all the people who freaked out after Pineda's suspension was announced and started declaring the twins season over and that there was no way they'd even win the division...(talk about overreaction!)
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