jmlease1

1. I think yes, but maybe not right away and maybe not full stands. I think it's possible that a real and properly tested vaccine may be available and in distribution by March, which is the only way large-crowd events will be able to be handled safely, particularly as we continue to deal with flare-ups on the pandemic. If it's been distributed widely enough and shows enough effectiveness...I think fans will be able to watch live again. In some fashion. 2. I'd look to bring him back, on similar terms to the original: 1 year or 1 + a team option. Otherwise...you let him go. (You probably let him go if someone offers him $20M too) 3. Biggest need might be for a high BA hitter to add to the lineup. It's not a monumental need, but with the power swingers and high K guys, they might need to sprinkle in another guy who hits for average as part of their good OB%. I'm not interested in a guy who hits an empty .300 and never walks and is nothing but a singles hitter...but frankly even a late-period Joe Mauer hitter would be good for the lineup. Maybe Kirilloff is that guy (with much more power)? 4. Unless you think Varela has lost the room, you might as well bring him back. It's really hard to know much about his specific performance in this weird sprint of a season. I think hitting coaches have more impact over time. 5. It's definitely more of a reload with a little retool over a rebuild. The rotation is solid for next season, there's a bunch of good arms in the bullpen, the lineup should be very good to great, even in the face of what happened here. Overreaction to small sample sizes and weird, impossible seasons is the sort of thing franchises with massive revenue streams can do and buy their way out of any mistakes they make by making decisions made based on emotion...it's not a path to sustained success for the Twins. Who have been very successful the last two seasons. It's been a lot of wins and a team that's been very fun to watch. The "blow it up, fire everyone" crowd should probably go take a nap.

Hill is pitching decently right now, but I don't think there's much doubt that Maeda, Berrios and Pineda are the three best Twins starters right now and have the best chance for giving the team 6-7 quality innings. Hill is probably maxed out more like 4-5. Hopefully Berrios and Donaldson can go for Game 1 and be themselves; that is definitely the other big thing (beyond Maeda) that could be different from last year: the team being relatively healthy.

One more thing on this topic generally: this FO has done a really good job of raising the floor on the team. While you do need to have top-end talent and performers in order to win a title, one of the best and cheapest things you can do to improve your team is to stop giving AB and innings to bad players. Making sure that you have depth to replace your best players when they need rest or go down with an injury with at least adequate players, or guys that you can slide into platoon kinds of roles and not get them exposed is really important. And that's something this FO has really worked on. That's why you sign an Alex Avila: he's a great platoon fit for someone like Garver (or even Jeffers). It's not a move that moves the needle in an obvious way, it's not flashy...but it gives you depth and options. It's why the Marwin move was so good: he wasn't signed to start, but to be the super-utility guy who can plug in and fix any problem you're having at like 4-5 spots on the field. That depth is showing in the rotation this year: we haven't had to hope and pray that Lewis Thorpe or Smeltzer or Littell could figure it out in the rotation and hold things down despite having injuries to starters; instead it's been a spot start not handing them the job. Homer Bailey wasn't bad...and got designated for assignment. But he was an insurance policy. It's a big change to have legit options battling for a 5th spot in the rotation, instead of needing an unproven guy to step up and fill the 3rd spot. Raising the floor has been something this FO has done very well, and it's something that will continue to pay dividends down the line if/when young players become stars.

This doesn't even talk about the smart extensions for key performers like Polanco, Kepler, and Sano. This FO has put the Twins in a position to win not just this year but to be a consistent winner. Hopefully they'll be able to get deals done with Berrios and Buxton to lock in a strong core for the next several years...and I'm not going to bet against this group. They're handling team business with foresight and professionalism, and I really don't think there's much question that they're the best front office in Minnesota professional sports right now. (Wolves are on the rise, but the results haven't shown yet. Vikings have done a lot of things well over the past several years, but overall haven't managed the QB spot well and are now paying for it. Wild are in a transitional mode, too soon to tell)

I'm just happy to see the offense producing. If our hitters are finally finding their groove, then we're a dangerous team that people aren't going to want to face. Cabrera can still hit. Whoof, he stomped on us tonight, and nearly brought the Tigers back all by himself. Heck of a hitter, always has been.

It's an interesting debate on Wade vs Astudillo for the last hitting spot: both offer some interesting advantages as a pinch hitter. Wade is going to take a good AB, he's going to force a pitcher to throw him a strike, and would be a great choice to start a rally by grinding out a walk even if he doesn't necessarily get a hit. Astudillo isn't going to take a K, so if you're in a position where you just need the ball in play, his ability to get his bat on anything he wants is magnified in the postseason. Either is a useful pinch hitting option, for very different reasons. I'm guessing it might be Astudillo, because he's got broader positional flexibility (even if it's not ideal) but I think it could go either way. I think it's definitely between the two of them: I like Blankenhorn and I think he's got a future, but he didn't really get enough run to be selected above the other two...yet.

Sure would be nice if what we're seeing is the Twins offense finally starting to click. But there's no question that Berrios has found his groove, which is very exciting. Playoff rotation of Maeda, Berrios, & Pineda definitely feels better than Berrios, Dobnak, Odorizzi from last year. Let's get Cruz and Arraez ready to go, rest the bullpen, line up the rotation and go kick some butt.

No question he's a good guy. I hope he takes care of his health and is able to enjoy a long and joyous retirement (and maybe finds a low-stress consulting gig that let's him stay connected to a game he clearly loves). Gardy definitely knew how to run a clubhouse and keep players motivated, and that's a skill. It doesn't happen by chance. He definitely brought frustrations for fans, especially as the farm system dried up and the long losing seasons piled on, but he was a good fit for Terry Ryan and they made a good team for many years.

I was really happy to see Eddie jump on a fastball and send it over the fence. He's been struggling with that and if pitchers are able to throw him fastballs without fear, it's going to suck for him. This blast sure helped. Really nice to see the Twins bunch up some hits and put up a crooked number. That's been missing way too much this year (and frankly has seemed strange). Maybe we're gonna get guys on track at the same time and the offense will start rolling into the playoffs? Wisler was terrific. I didn't think much of the move at the time; it was one of those low leverage moves in my mind, and while I'm fine with taking some of these flyers on guys where you think your coaching staff can improve them or they bounce back to form, this has been the best example for how you should do it. They had a plan for Wisler, it wasn't guesswork, it wasn't pegged on hopes and prayers...and it's worked really well. It's moves like this why I trust in the Falvey/Levine braintrust to make the right calls for the franchise, short & long-term.

I'm baffled by the collapse of the Twins offense this season. Was last year that much of a fluke? Did the change in the ball really torpedo them that much? Is it all the strangeness of the pandemic and the messed up spring training? Is it the injuries? So many guys took a big step back. We finally get some pitching put together and there's so little run support to back them up...

I'm happy to see him showing more patience at the plate, but I'm worried if he's not able to hit fastballs any longer. Maybe it's just small sample size, maybe it's just part of more and more guys throwing their breaking stuff more often. But it's usually a bad sign when guys can't hit fastballs any longer?

Good for Travis. Be interesting to see how he does and if he can seize the opportunity the way some other young players have. I think his positional flexibility gives him a good chance to replace Marwin on the roster next year, and while he isn't the defender Marwin is, he could be a more productive bat.

Except it's simply not true regarding HRs. For home runs, the stat still represents fairly what the actions of the hitter were: they hit the ball over the fence. With RBIs it's not the same; arguably the most important information you get from RBIs is that the hitter had a lot of ABs with runners on base. What the context is for home runs isn't as important as the fact that someone actually hit the ball out.

The problem with RBIs is people use them to describe the wrong things. As an expression of a player's ability as a hitter...they're not very indicative. Other stats are far better and are more predictive of future success. RBIs simply don't do that. There's a fair theory that modern baseball is undervaluing contact as a skill, which plays to where the Twins were last night, at least a bit. Right now teams are valuing hitting the ball hard over hitting the ball (launch angle, hard-hit rate, etc) because what they're seeing is that having more players who do those things and get on base at a high rate leads to more big innings and more runs overall. But I think there's an argument that you can be even better off if those sluggers, those three true outcome artists are leavened with guys who get on base via a high batting average as part of a high on base percentage. Having guys with excellent contact skill does help...but having a bunch of guys who slap the ball a lot isn't going to help. you have to pick them carefully. And no matter what you do, sometimes a guy is going to have a bad day. Cruz is having an awesome season at the plate, he's exactly the guy you want up to bat with the bases loaded...and it didn't happen. But I take that matchup every single time. I'm a little concerned about Taylor Rogers. He's been much more hittable this year. But it's also only 16 innings. The k-rate is still excellent, he's not walking guys, his hr rate is right around the career average...so is he in trouble, or is this a fluke with small sample size? I'm a little worried, but it's not panic time.

I hope Blankenhorn gets a shot. His positional flexibility would be helpful with Arraez out since he could fill in at 2B or in one of the corner OF spots as needed (and even drop in at 3B if Donaldson needs a day off). Time to find out if he can hit MLB pitching, but I think his power will play. Not a great outing for Pineda, but he wasn't terrible either. I think he's still going to slot in as the 3rd starter for the Twin in the playoffs, behind Maeda & Berrios. Odd game: at one point the Twins had 4 hits...and all were home runs.

A real shame, he was settling in nicely and had some big hits. There's no question that his power production can play at the MLB level and he had done well in this short stint at controlling the strike zone (better than he had in the minors). I think he'll get an opportunity to compete for a role next season. Too bad it ended so quickly for him, he did a great job taking advantage of his opportunity and gave the team a nice boost.

That's a real shame about Rooker: he was off to a really nice start and was really taking advantage of his opportunity. He's got a serious power bat and if he's able to control the strike zone like this, he's going to be a nice player. Very unlucky. Very much felt like regular baseball to me today: players who have been taking a little heat busted out today, lol. Time for Blankenhorn? Marwin get a multi-hit game with a dinger. Ready to move on from Rosario? He clubs a dinger. I swear, that happens all the time in a normal season. Rich Hill pitched pretty well, but I still have more faith in other starters right now. Cleveland has a bad offense, it's just bad. So while I'm pleased to see the K's and happy he got through 5 innings, he's not looking like a top 3 starter on the staff. I hope the team signs Buxton to a long-term deal in the offseason. Even with the injuries, he's such a dynamic player and the team just works differently with him in the lineup. He's an energizer and he's producing.

If Gordon wasn't recovering from COVID, I'm pretty sure he would be the pick. But his bad luck continues, and we saw how with Sano & Astudillo there's a difference between being cleared to play again and being ready to play again after COVID. I'd give Blankenhorn a look. He's not going to impress defensively, but he can manage at several positions, including 2b, 3b, and corner OF. I think we'll be seeing him get a real chance next year. He's got some pop in his bat and with both Marwin and Adrianza struggling so badly at the plate, it's worth taking a peek at someone else.

I suppose of the question is whether Lindor said something or if someone else did and Romo thought it was Lindor? I found the whole thing a bit funny watching it live; it honestly felt like everyone just wanted to get out and move around on a crappy weather night, but Romo stayed hot in the dugout long enough that it seems hard to believe something didn't happen? It's definitely an issue without fans in the stands: guys are hearing everything anyone says and chirping that never got noticed before sure seems to be coming to the fore.

Maeda's starts are a must watch. So fun to watch him pitch. That trade is working out very nicely for the Twins, regardless of what Graterol does for the Dodgers. I like the fact that they are letting him go deeper into games now as well. I've been really impressed with his control this season but even if he regresses a bit on the walks he's still going to be excellent. Bieber is the obvious pick for the Cy this year, but Maeda deserves some votes and attention.

where is this idea that Eddie Rosario has somehow shown particular loyalty to the Twins? He's still an arbitration-eligible player. He hasn't taken any discounts, he hasn't passed up on anything to keep playing for the Twins. I'm amazed at your certainty that we will not be able to sign Buxton or Berrios, but if we aren't able to make it happen it won't be because of declining to offer another year of arbitration to Eddie Rosario. (Considering Buxton's injury history, we may have a better chance than ever to sign Buxton to a long-term deal that buys out 1-2 years of free agency) I was happy to keep Rosario for this season, because I wasn't sure the internal options were ready and the realistic FA options weren't significant upgrades in my mind. Plus, there was hope that recovery from the nagging injuries might improve Eddie's defense. But the reality is, the defense hasn't improved: his range and glove are not good. The arm is still excellent, but there are fewer opportunity to influence a game with your arm from LF than your glove. His bat is still fine, especially in this COVID season where hitting is down all over the place...but it's hardly elite. So when it comes to making the call next year you've got an increasingly expensive player with declining defensive skills that is not improving at the plate a track record of terrible base-running who plays one of the most replaceable positions in baseball. It's not about hating Rosario. It's about paycheck vs production. The more a player makes, the less you can ignore their flaws. The more a player makes, the fewer flaws you can accept. And as exciting as Eddie Rosario is, and as many big splash plays as he might make...he also has a lot of botches. I'm not going to pretend that Rooker or Kirilloff or Larnach is going to be able to replace Rosario's production right now (Rooker is doing better at the plate, but it's a very small sample); they might, but it's a much riskier bet. We know what we're going to get from Eddie, and it's not worth a 10-15% increase against a potential 50% decline in production when it's also not going to save you any money either. Roll with Eddie this season. Probably move along next year with thanks for his service. (The $13M he's made should help make him feel ok about his time here too)

I don't see Rosario as being part of the future, but other than making the people pulling their hair out over his baserunning mistakes, not really sure what we accomplish by trying to phase him out now, considering the injury status we have and this goofy short season. Rooker, Wade, and Cave are all contributing, but none of them are setting the world on fire. (Rooker is the only one out-hitting Rosario, and it's too small a sample to rely on yet and his defense is also...poor. Cave & Wade are better defensively than Rosario (better range, poorer arm) but neither is hitting well.) So there's no one that clearly deserves to take Rosario's place when Kepler gets back. Next season? I've always thought he was gone. The hitting has declined this year, the defense is just as bad as last year and he's going to get more expensive because MLB arbitration rewards experience over production. He's a great guy, been fun to watch, and is clearly MLB-calibre, but he's now at that point where his salary probably outstrips his skills. Cron is a fair comp in a lot of ways. TB made the decision previously on him that a) he wasn't worth the $5M he was gonna get, and they could replace his production with a younger, cheaper player. They weren't entirely wrong. Cron was a below average starter last year...is that worth $5M? maybe? Were they able to replace his production? Sure did. Choi was slightly better and made just under $1M. (I'm using bWAR btw) I think the run is over for the Twins for Eddie, because they're not going to want to pay him $8M+ next year for a guy that's going to project as a 2 bWAR player when they have a bunch of top hitting talent in the wings. There's no point to moving on now, but when the season ends, the Twins will reasonably move on.

I feel the most for Odorizzi, because he was looking at a very big payday if he could have turned in another good season and now he's kinda hanging out there. The injuries wouldn't impact his free agency nearly as hard in a normal year where things are spaced out a little more. But between the injuries, the ineffectiveness to date (he can't even do a normal rehab where he could go down and do a couple of minor league starts to get back in the groove before returning to the MLB roster) and the overall financial situation...hard to see him getting the 4-5 big money offer he was hoping for. Does he bet on himself for another year and try to make a run on a 1 year deal? He's not young any longer either. May is going to be hurt by this too, which probably works to the Twins advantage. I think they'll want to bring him back; yes, he's given up more hits this year to date, but how much of that is just SSS? The stuff plays and he's also getting tons of Ks without handing out free passes willy-nilly. But instead of getting a 3 or possibly 4 year deal, he's looking more likely at 2 years and for less money. I don't think anyone is going to hand him a closer job, and it's unlikely he'll get an offer for more than 3/4M AAV. I don't think Adrianza is significantly impacted. He is who he is, a solid utility guy. He might lose a little because the overall financial market will be down, but he was never likely to get an offer like he was a starter. I like him, he's been a useful player on the team, but he's not a player you're going to give a long-term deal to or commit a substantial amount of money to. But he'll still have a job, I think, even if it's not with the Twins. And that's always the way it is with a utility guy who just isn't good enough to take a starting job away from someone else.

what was so frustrating about this game was the Twins finally had a "crooked number" inning early in the game and had a nice lead. The offense had been struggling so much, even in the recent wins we weren't generating a lot of runs, so you see them start stringing together some hits and you start thinking "here we go!" and then everyone in the bullpen has a bad game at the same time. well, I guess that's baseball. Rosario had some kind of a game. A couple of significant mental errors. Nearly had two great defensive plays...and ended up with nothing. Big dinger. Can't say it was a great overall day for him, but he's a guy who makes things happen. You can have one of those guys on a team, but I wouldn't want two or three. Astudillo is a utility player. He's useful to have on a roster, especially with the bigger rosters because you can plus him into a lot of spots. But he's not a particularly good defender at any position, including catcher. As a 3rd catcher who can play a bunch of other spots and bench bat who is really good at making contact...he's a useful role player. I think he's exposed as a regular, and we saw that today. He looked pretty bad letting a pitch go to the backstop, and leaving the ball behind on the great throw hurt (even if the Tigers runner very likely didn't actually touch the plate and was probably out). He's just not a skilled defender back there. Jeffers/Avila/Garver all probably make that play. despite scoring 8 runs, the Twins left 22 runners on base. That's still not a winning formula even with the bullpen blowup. I'm still worried about Hill and his struggles with his control. Yes, he got into a groove eventually, but seeing him miss badly on so many first inning pitches...not sure he's going to be a starting option.

I like Rooker, feels like he could be an Adam Dunn kind of player: big power, lots of Ks, plenty of walks. But Rooker should be a better defensive player, and if he can be average-ish in the corners/1B and live in to his power potential, he's going to be a very nice player and a real asset. Finding playing time might be a bit of a problem for him, but as a RH bat there should be ABs available for him in the corners. Very solid start for the big guy. Love seeing him make that hard contact.