jmlease1

I dunno, age 27 is when you expect guys to be having career years. If this is a career peak for him, he's going to unfortunately have a short career. And I'm afraid there's not a lot in his history to suggest he's going to improve much: there's little chance he improves much as an OF, there's nothing in his history to suggest he's going to cut down on the K's, it's hard to see him improving his contact rates, so about the only thing that's left is increasing his walks. If he can add 30-40 pts to his OBP then...maybe but sure seems like a big lift. As noted elsewhere, more and more teams are choosing not to book a DH-only player, especially because the benches are getting so short with larger pitching staffs. So if you don't have much positional flexibility, you need to be a superior hitter, not just a guy who gets by on one skill. The worry on a guy like Tyler Austin really is that he's Daniel Palka: a one-dimensional slugger whose best position is DH.

Meh. I just don't understand the love for Austin. He's a big swinger who adds little defense and doesn't get on base nearly enough to be significant asset. Palka? I certainly see the comp to Austin, but it doesn't speak all that well of either of them. Palka got a shot last year and despite 27 dingers he was still posted a measly bWAR of 0.6. Austin didn't get as much PT, but was roughly the same player. These are ok players to have on the roster if you have room, but in today's game they're getting cut as soon as they cost any money, because they have limited skills, no real positional flexibility, and are replaceable. Austin is a better defensive player than Palka, but not much. CJ Cron is better than either of them. Hopefully Brent Rooker will be better than any of them.

Lot of interesting quotes here. I like that Stewart seems to have a good feel for the position he's in: might compete for the 5th spot, probably starts off in AAA, needs to position himself to be ready when he gets his shot or to force the team to give him a shot. I think he's an interesting pitcher; he's doing a good job inducing weak contact, so if he can find a way to miss a few more bats he's got a real chance for success with this approach. It can be a challenge developing a pitcher straight out of high school, but despite Stewart falling off the top prospect lists, he''s got a real chance to be a solid rotation piece.

Ugh. I'm really high on Kirilloff, so I would struggle with this one. But the reality is, it will take someone of that caliber to get Realmuto, who is an all-star MLB catcher in his prime years still under team control. It would not be a crazy move at all. Catcher is definitely an area where I understand the team concern. Castro is coming off a significant knee injury, isn't a good offensive player, and his contract is up at the end of the year. Garver made very nice progress, but now we need to worry about concussion issues. Astudillo? Can he stick behind the plate, and is he really this kind of hitter? No one knows. Behind them, there's very little in the minors. Rortvedt (whom I like) hasn't played above A ball, and may never hit enough to really be an asset. There's a lot of questions and not a lot of depth in the pipeline. It'd be a bold move. It's also one that you'd want to have a multi-year extension in place to buy out that last arbitration year and at least 1 FA year if you're going to give up an elite prospect...

Would you not think this is a significant reason Paul Molitor is not the manager any longer?

Look, I want the Twins to do more to improve the pitching staff (especially the relief corps), but this is absurd. Kyle Gibson was nearly as good as Berrios last season (in terms of actual results, he was, in fact, better but also arguably luckier) and there's a good argument to be made that it's repeatable success because it was borne out of a change in approach. Taylor Rogers had a fantastic season and is in his prime. Trevor May is healthy and looked excellent when he returned. There are are also other guys on this pitching staff that are more than worthy of roles (Blake Parker, Pineda, Odorizzi, etc) and young players that would be competing for a spot on most rosters (Gonsalves, Stewart, Moya, etc). Let's not pretend this pitching staff is Berrios and a pile of garbage, because it simply isn't. I'd be a lot happier if they did a little more to shore up the bullpen because this has been a multi-year problem for the club, but I'm also cognizant that relief pitching is the most variable and fungible of any position out there so I get the reluctance to drop $10M+ a year on a guy for 3-5 years when next year he might go to hell. Craig Kimbrel is elite...will he be elite for 4 of the next 5 years? (remember, he wasn't all that great in 2016...) Cody Allen was terrific for five years, through what should be his prime, and last year was basically 2018 Addison Reed with better press. It's a roll of the dice on relievers, man.

Yeah, I'm not sleeping on Polanco. I think he's a significant part of this club and his absence was a significant part of the first half being such a disaster last year. Instead of having a power-hitting on-base machine 2B paired with a high average good power SS, we had a no-hit SS and a slumping 2B dealing with a balky knee, turning both spots into wastelands instead being assets. A .280/.335/.420 slash line is eminently reasonable for a projection and substantially better than anything we could expect from Adrianza, and would make it easy to accept Polanco's occasional struggles on D. But as Tom and others have noted, he's shown the ability to exceed that level. He fits nicely in either the 1st or 2nd slot in the batting order, and I think we can pencil him in for 140+ games this year. He's not a guy who need a bounceback year, he just needs to play. He screwed up, took a BIG ban that cost him a lot of money and hurt the franchise. But when he got on the field, he showed he could still hit. We had the 7th worst WAR at SS last season; a full year of Polanco easily slips us into the middle of the pack. In 2018, we were 21st at 2B and 24th at SS by bWAR. In 2018, we were 3rd at 2B and 14th at SS by bWAR. Polanco will help.

I'd love for us to be in on either player, but it feels like the mentions of us being a mystery team are the sort of thing an agent would do to try and stir the market, not because they have any intention of ever signing their player with us. They want us to be a stalking horse for a bigger market and try and push the Chicago/NY/LA's of the world to make the bigger offer. Basically, not seeing this matter.

so...Cody Allen, huh? He's an interesting pitcher. be nice if the twins could sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal. I think I agree that he would raise the floor of the bullpen.

I'd move on Cody Allen for a 1 or 2 year deal. I doubt he'll sign at a price we'd be happy with for 3 years, and there's enough risk after last year that a 3-year deal is a little questionable. 1 year at $12M? I'd go there. 2/$20M? I'd think very hard about that one too. more years seems unrealistic for either side. I don't know that I'd go over $12M on a one year deal, but if I'm Allen and I don't like any of the 3+ year deals that teams might go with, I'd probably jump on that, bet on myself, and try to stick it to Cleveland 10-12 times next year.

I want to congratulate Cody on successfully dodging the question of who WILL show the most progression this season between Kepler, Sano, and Buxton. I've decided to bet on Buxton showing the most progression. He'll be better and show more consistency this season. I expect he'll have a couple of bad (maybe even really bad) stretches, balanced by ones where he goes nuts, but I think his baseline will be higher this year and he'll be healthy enough to play 140+ games. I'm a little worried that Kepler is who he is. I hope I'm wrong and he takes a solid step forward on offense, but I'm not placing any money on that one. Sano will almost certainly be better this year than last, but he also may end up being a somewhat one-dimensional slugger. Buxton has the most upside, has had some semi-fluky injuries that have slowed his development (Sano's leg problems are a little less fluky, I fear), and is the youngest out of all of them. If I have to pick who's going to show the most progression this year, I'll bet on Buck.

I'm fine with a minor league deal of Bucholtz I guess, but I think we need to move on from Ervin. There's definite baggage there and likely minimal upside at this point. But I think I'd prefer to ride or die with the various pitchers we have then dumpster dive for a veteran. It's not like we don't have experienced pitchers (Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda have all been around for a while now, and even Berrios has multiple years in MLB), so unless we sign a guy who improves the top end (my "better than Gibson" plan) I think we're better off finding out if Mejia, Gonsalves, Stewart, or Romero are going to be options as consistent MLB starters for this team. Having three guys in AAA (or 2 + a guy in the 'pen) isn't bad depth, really. And Lewis Thorpe might be knocking on the door this summer too. Mejia's issue is not getting deep enough into games, but we know he can pitch effectively at this level. Working with an opener might be the solution for him to get the team enough innings out of that 5th slot.

I'm having trouble seeing Tyler Austin as the 1B in 2022 when I'm doubtful he's on the roster in 2019. With Cron almost certainly getting the starting job and Cruz locked in a DH, I'm having trouble finding a spot for a guy like Austin who doesn't have much positional flexibility for a team that is (unfortunately) likely to have a 3-man bench, at least at the start of the season. Unless I'm missing something, Austin doesn't have an option left, so unless we keep 4 bench guys, he gets traded or claimed. (I'm predicting the bench is Garver, Adrianza, and Cave) Maybe this comes true if the Twins keep a 4th guy on the bench, but otherwise I'm having trouble spotting him in the organization.

I think he's going to be waiting a while, then. 1) I'm not sure too many teams consider him a $20M/year pitcher, and 2) too many teams have gotten burned on the 5+ year pitching contracts. (James Shields, anyone?)

I really don't know what to think on Dallas Keuchel. He had a solid year last season and looks healthy again, but the k/9 is down and he gave up quite a few hits. His control is solid and he knows how to pitch, but...is he better than Kyle Gibson? That's sort of my criteria on signing starters right now. If we're going to invest real money in a guy, I want him to be better than Gibson. And how much does Keuchel want? How many years? Do we want him if it's 3 years & $51M? What if it's 4 years and $60M? Kirilloff is going to be a guy to watch this year. I suspect they'll start him in Ft. Myers again, since he only did a half season there, make sure it wasn't a fluke, etc. The jump to AA will be where we really find out how good a prospect he is. A lot of nice looking prospects hit AA and the wheels fall off. I think he can handle it. Sure would be nice for him to be crushing A ball again that he gets bumped faster and then for him to rip apart AA. No reason to rush him up yet (especially since we still want to know what we really have in guys like Kepler/Cave) but I think he'll be pushing for a shot in 2020. He should stick in the OF too, profiles just fine in RF

One of the questions I have about Gonsalves is what exactly are his command & control issues? Is it his mechanics getting out of whack and struggling to repeat his delivery? is it not trusting his stuff and trying to get too fine on hitting the corners? Frankly, the first is more concerning than the second, but I don't really know what his specific issue is. but he's definitely still got one. there's talent there, but he's got to get the free passes down and be able to chew through innings, otherwise he's a AAAA guy. Still time to find out, but right now Kohl Stewart might have jumped ahead of him as a guy people make weak contact against for the back end of the rotation.

It is interesting to look at that prospect list, though! 7 out of the top 10 are currently on the twins 40-man with at least 6 of them expected to be on the 25 man (with Kohl Stewart a possibility for the 5th spot on the rotation). the next 5 has another guy on the 25-man (May), and a prospect who could break through this season (Thorpe).

Have to disagree with you on where Clemens was in terms of HoF or not before he started getting chemically enhanced (which there seems to be agreement occurred in Toronto). He had already won 3 Cy Youngs and an MVP, 4 ERA titles, and had a resume littered was black ink. he'd bounced back from the injury years to throw 242 innings in his last year in Boston and lead the league in K's. Even if he'd had a standard 5-year decline leading to retirement around age 38 he'd almost certainly be in based on the 12 year Boston run through age 33. No longer in conversation about the greatest pitcher of all-time, but the resume was already there. the enhancement years put Clemens into the conversations about inner circle stuff, edspecially because of the added mystique of dominating in his late 30's/early 40's like no one else in modern times. And now we know why. But I think it's a pretty big re-write to say he wasn't already on the path to the HoF because he started juicing. I think you can add in Bonds & Clemens and still exclude guys like Sosa, McGuire, and Palmiero but I understand the concern. I'd prefer the HoF doesn't just throw up it's hands and go, "well, it was the wild wild west back then, nothing we can do, so we'll just look at the stats and move along," myself. but none of those other guys were sure things before they started cheating, either. Sosa? nice player before the juicing apparently started, but nearly half of his total bWAR came in 4 years, coinciding with...peak steroid. He was cooked at age 35. Is it really that hard to exclude him? McGuire? Had some big years, but never won an MVP and it's not like he got robbed. Missed a lot of time for injury (averaged 117 games a year) and it's not like he played one of the high wear & tear positions. Great rate stats, but the counting stats are less impressive. Really needs those St. Louis years to even be in the conversation and there's no question he was juicing then. If he retires at age 34-35 because of too many nagging injuries and he's barely over 400 career HRs his name never comes up. Palmeiro? He's the guy who got busted AFTER the wild wild west years were over, so that certainly makes it easier to exclude, doesn't it? The lack of black type hurts him too; lead the league in hits once, doubles once, runs once. That's it. only 4 all-star appearances. you have to discount one of Gold Gloves since it was back when voting was a complete joke and he played DH most of the year. there's an argument that he was a bit of a compiler and as a guy who actually tested positive it's a lot easier to call into question his many high-performing years late in his career. Cut down those texas numbers in his 2nd stint and isn't he pretty much Will Clark? (a fine player and the epitome of the Hall of Very Good) So I think you can still exclude those kind of guys. Will they? Should they? Fair questions.

It's a fun exercise. I could (and have) quibbled with the rankings a little here and there, but overall it's certainly a reasonable set. Part of what i think people need to remmber is how much team control, upside projections, and replaceability factor into something like this. Corner OFs are easier to find than SS, etc. Can't argue with who the top 5 are. not sure it matters all that much what order they're in? The Mitch Garver ranking entirely depends on whether he can continue to catch, I think. If he's a catcher, he's a significant asset, especially for the twins who don't have another prospect above A ball. I might plug in Larnach over someone like Cron; while I like CJ and I thought it was a good move to grab him this off-season, the high draft pick who has performed right in line with expectations is probably more valuable than the guy who's already been a waiver claim. Thorpe might be the bigger miss though. I think I agree with DocBauer on that one. Meija may be all he'll ever be, and Thorpe could be significantly better. the more I think about Thorpe, the more I think he's going to emerge.

Freakin' Bonds and Clemens. Great players. great even before PEDs. Almost certainly enhanced the latter half of their careers with chemicals, knew they were breaking the rules (possibly the law), and simply didn't care. Part of me wants to get it over with so we don't have to talk about them any longer, part of me wants to punt the decision down the road so we're further removed from the emotion of it. Part of me thinks they deserve to be in regardless, part of me doesn't want them rewarded for their crap-weaselry. I would not vote for Vizquel, despite enjoying his play for many, many years. His flash disguised the fact that he wasn't always as great defensively as his rep, and while he has a ton of hits for a SS, he also played forever. Offensively, he just wasn't very good; superficially he looks a lot like Ozzie Smith, but Vizquel played in a much higher scoring era and simply wasn't as good defensively. The last 5 years he was just a guy hanging around, and he had too many years where he was just an ok starter, and not enough years where he played like an all-star. (there's a reason he only went 3 times: he didn't deserve it more, it wasn't just because of guys like A-Rod, Jeter, and Nomar blocking him. they were just better) I would add Scott Rolen to my ballot. terrific defensively, and had a great combination of power and patience that played very well. He's a better version of Graig Nettles (who deserved more consideration, frankly) and as valuable as Ron Santo. If Rolen had been a bit healthier, he'd be an easy choice for everyone, but the numbers are there. I'm not sure about Andruw Jones (gotta spell it with the "U"!). Huge peak. staggeringly great defensive player his first half of his career. Was cooked at 31. An amazing fall that was at least partially self-inflicted. I just don't know if he's a Hall of Famer. Larry Walker, 100% yes. amazing 5-tool player who hit everywhere he played, not just Colorado (where he did indeed have video game stats). remember, OPS+ accounts for park effects, and he still had redonkulous numbers any time he was healthy. I blame that awful turf in montreal, but he hit like crazy up there too. Terrific defender (great arm, great range in RF) and wonderful baserunner too. not sure about Helton, but would consider. Like Jones, a huge peak. Like Jones, pretty fast falloff. Yes on Edgar, Moose, Mariano, and Doc Halladay.

Seriously? Kirilloff isn't going to end up being that far behind Lewis on the prospect lists and might reach the majors sooner. The kid can flat-out hit and came back from a major injury with no problems at all. There's no way he's not one of the Twins top assets, and eliminating all minor league players save one from the list is silly. Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Javier all should be on this list and there's a good argument to be made for Larnach too.

Hee. another hilarious difference between bRef physical stats and where someone like Thorpe is now. (they list him at 160lbs; the handbook has him at 218.) I'm excited about this guy, and hopeful he has another year of good health, because it feels like injury is the only thing that will derail him making his MLB debut in 2019. After missing 2 whole seasons (consecutively, on top of it!) he's finally healthy and pitching well. He's going to need to get deeper into games, so finishing off hitters efficiently is going to have to be part of what he works on in AAA, but the peripherals look great.

I think what you have to keep in mind with Kepler is that his bat plays pretty well as a regular CF and his defense appears to be good enough for him to handle it on a regular basis as well, which increases his value quite a bit, because it's not just his value to the Twins on the field we're looking at here, but his value to other teams. There are plenty of teams that would probably plop Kepler down in CF and be ok with it even if his offense doesn't improve. There's also the issue with perceived value vs. actual value. Kepler still has greater perceived value because there's still a belief (hope?) that he can & will hit better than this, and as a younger guy with many years of team control upside is still a consideration. he might be ranked a little higher than a lot of us would think because we've grown a little frustrated with his lack of offensive progress, but you have to think there are teams out there who look at him and think, "he's Aaron Hicks, pt. II if we can pry him loose from MN".

I don't care one way or the other about Bonds or Clemens any longer. Both were almost certainly HoF quality before they started cheating, so whatever. I don't know whether it's better to vote 'em in to get rid of their presence on the ballot or let 'em stew. I'd hate for their entrance to be a signal that "nah, who cares about cheating and using dangerous drugs if you throw that baseball hard or hit enough dingers!", though. Agree on Edgar Martinez, Mariano Rivera, and Larry Walker. Easy choices to me: Edgar was an absolute machine as a hitter, wasn't as bad a 3B as his rep, and should definitely be in. Mariano might actually get 100% on his first ballot. Larry Walker wasn't just a great hitter, he was always a great fielder and baserunner. And he hit everywhere he played. Great hitter in Montreal, great hitter in Colorado, great hitter in St. Louis. I'm a no on Manny. Elite hitter, but awful defensive player and bad teammate. Admitted cheater, and kept cheating after an understanding had been reached on what was and wasn't ok. His PED use wasn't a mistake or part of the wild wild west, so why let him off the hook? Sheffield is a no as well, I think. Another disastrous defender, I think he's below the standard and he's another guy who racked up All-star appearances he probably didn't deserve. Terrific hitter when healthy, but didn't add much else and he needed to hang on for a few junky years to get over 500 HRs. Sosa is also a no, I think. Too much of his overall value and stat accumulation was in a pretty short period and that was also almost certainly chemically enhanced. That's a hard vote for a guy who fell apart so quickly, basically cooked at age 35. Scott Rolen is a guy I'd definitely vote for. Fantastic defensive player, excellent hitter, and one of the elite 3B of all time. Despite the injuries, he was still elite. Mike Mussina is a definite yes as well. Absolute workhorse, consistently great. During an offensive explosion he was one of the best at keeping runs off the board. He's a no doubter for me. Curt Schilling is one I'd consider voting for, despite the fact that he's become an increasingly reprehensible human being. Not as consistent as Mussina, but a higher peak in fact. Had some absolutely huge years and was one of the premiere strikeout artists of his time. A big game pitcher to be sure, but that's just icing on the cake. Hard to vote for him, because of all the other crap that's he's gotten into after retiring, though. Helton, Halladay, and Andruw Jones all deserve some consideration. I'm probably yes on Doc Halladay, need to think about Helton some more, and no on Jones. Halladay didn't have the longest career, and it took him a few years to become the monster he became but that 10 year run from 2002-2011...man, he was great.

Man, I really hope concussions don't force Garver away from the plate. He's a terrific asset there and his bat plays so nicely. he's showing a nice combination of patience with a decent amount of pop. His positional flexibility is helpful to any roster, but if he can't catch any longer, it's a real loss. i can't blame Nick for dropping Sano down to this level. It's fair to think that his upside should still rank him higher (he is only a year away from smacking 28 hrs in 114 games), but in 4 seasons he's never played 120 games in any of them. He's had 2 that were...not good. Last season was a disaster. At the same time...he's only 25 and it wouldn't take a whole lot for him to step back up as a premiere slugging 3B. he's an asset, but his value definitely has dropped pretty far and pretty fast. I like May a lot, probably more that is warranted. He was terrific this season, but is it the dreaded SSS or a combo of him finally being healthy and figuring it out? I suppose this season is a prove it one, but I'm glad to have him in mix.