jmlease1

oh, ZiPS. The obsession with regression makes it such a frustrating prediction system. This has Kepler, Garver, and Polanco all predicted to be significantly worse in 2020, by at least 1 fWAR per player. none of these guys have even hit 30 yet. regression's a thing, but all of them? Buxton only misses this grouping because they have him at -0.7 fWAR from last year...in 25% more PAs. Same for Donaldson & Cruz: drops in fWAR of at least 1. Arraez doesn't improve so much as he regresses and plays more. Now, they do this to every team so it can be useful in looking at team-by-team comps in projections, but otherwise ZiPS is probably going to drive every twins fans nuts if you look at it too much in isolation.

well-deserved. Love Justin Morneau. Will never forget him puffing out his cheeks as he took a mighty cut at a baseball that had somehow offended his Canadian sensibilities and required the punishment of a lengthy flight into the right field seats. I was at Game 2 of the ALDS against Oakland at the Dome, and when he followed up Cuddyer's dinger with a shot of his own, it's the loudest I've ever heard any building at any event ever. (It's also one of the only times I've ever made a hr call, turned to my friend after Cuddy launched it and told him "Morneau's going back to back") I mean, holy cow. He absolutely deserves this, he was a fantastic player for the Twins. A real shame about the concussion: realistically it took him 3 1/2 years to recover from it. (and I'm betting that playing in Colorado didn't help his longevity to push into his late 30's) He was absolutely destroying the ball in 2010: 187 OPS+, career high in bWAR in 1/2 a season...that would have been fun to see how he might have finished it. I like him on the broadcasts. I think he still need a little more animation in his voice (he can be a little flat, but it's improved) but the information is great and he's clearly paying attention to what's going on and is interested and engaged. Looking forward to hearing him in the booth again, and I'm glad he's staying engaged with the franchise.

I think Schilling gets in next year (assuming he can keep his big yap shut). Clemens and Bonds won't, I don't think. But they might get it on the last year; it wouldn't surprise me if some writers decide to allow them to have their vote in the last year of eligibility. Personally, i think I would allow them to age off the ballot and let a special committee decide on them a little further removed from the times, but that's just me. There's no easy picks for 2021 in the first-timers (I love Torii, but he's borderline at best and certainly not 1st ballot. Andruw Jones isn't getting a lot of traction right now and he was a better player even with the rapid decline) so it'll be interesting if there's a groundswell for one of the non-PED guys stuck in the middle: Rolen, Vizquel, Helton, Kent, Wagner, or Sheffield. Seems unlikely. But there are two veterans committees meeting next year...maybe Tony O finally makes it?

I like Eddie, but the Twins are correct to go year to year on him. The defense is a real concern (hopefully his defensive decline was health-related and he's at full strength again but you never know) because his range has really dropped, he's been taking increasing numbers of bad routes and just dropping some balls that you think are in his glove. His arm is still plus, but in LF it just doesn't play as much and he's negated some of that value by airmailing it over his cutoff man. The bigger concern is his plate discipline. That .300 OBP really hurts his value as a hitter and his refusal to take a walk is just not great. I get that he's a streak hitter and when he's going no one can get him out it seems like...but those runs where he's not squaring up on the ball? when he's swinging at pitches off the plate by 2 feet or balls that bounce in front of him or are up at his eyes? Yikes. He's still a good player. But is he going to be worth $10M in 2021? Hard to say that he will if his D doesn't bounce back or his plate discipline stays awful. 30 hrs are nice, but he's on a 3-year decline in OPS+, which really does measure offense pretty well. (119, 116, 106, in case you were wondering) His BBs are on a 3 year decline as well. I think if his overall production slides again, he's going the way of Plouffe. I think if it stays exactly the same as last year it's a coin flip, but they probably keep him unless Kirilloff or Larnach is hitting so much that you just can't keep them down any longer (and they might have to had shown something in an MLB stint too). If the D & OBP kick back up to 2018 levels he's back 100%. I like Eddie Rosario. When he's cooking there's no player more fun to watch (except Buxton). We ignore the defensive foibles, overlook the crazy decisions on the basepaths, and it doesn't matter if he swings at a pitch near his eyes, because it'll get smacked to the wall. But when he's slumping, he turns into a complete mess at the plate and every other problem gets magnified.

You're predicting a very fast and steep decline for Donaldson with your prediction. In terms of WAR, you're essentially saying that he's going to be around a 3 WAR player this year (at best) and after that 2 WAR or less. That's exceptionally pessimistic and assumes at least one major injury. You're functionally saying here that the Twins were stupid to sign Nelson Cruz because he was old and it's too risky. You have to take some of these risks in MLB. The contract's not going to be an albatross and neither was the Mauer deal. What held us back with Mauer's later years was the rest of the club wasn't good enough and injuries crushed the life out of the window (concussions didn't just wreck the end of Joe's career, they trashed the team as a whole because of wiping out Morneau too). But they had money to spend if they chose, and they'll have money coming up with this team too. Remember: Cruz's $12M comes off the books after this season, so does Marwin's $9M and they can free up another $7M if they move on from Eddie...all at a time where revenue will be continuing to rise for the team. Even at $140M payroll, this team will be making a profit. Here's the final thing you have to remember on this: you never know who is available and whether you can get the pieces you want, especially in FA. Not spending the money doesn't just get you nothing, there's also an opportunity cost to not moving. It's not like the money really rolls over and gets "banked" to be spent later.

The patience is good for this team, which occasionally was hurt by not having another patient hitter to mix in the lineup. I'm a little concerned about the rise in Ks (career high last year), but if the OBP stays north of .370 and the SLG stays over .500 and he can play 120+ games, he'll be a real force in the middle of the lineup. I wonder if Dallas Kuechel has any regrets signing with the ChiSox now?

very happy with this signing, but pretty surprised that Atlanta couldn't/wouldn't match this deal. I think it's a fair deal for both the team and the player (and I'd be thrilled if Donaldson earns every incentive in here and they pick up that 5th year). Guessing the Nationals offer was too back-loaded/deferred for Donaldson. Gosh, it's nice to get picked in one of these dances! With a full spring training (and plenty of time in the ramp up to it), Sano should be able to get ready to play 1B on the regular and be effective at it. Hopefully he can get really comfortable making scoops, but he will make a damn big target to throw to over there! (did you see the pics of him at the PC? dude looks massive, but not fat. Holy cow) Donaldson is a great fit and should really help the offense insulate against regression from last year. You can't predict injury, but the Twins do have enough system depth to be able to deal with a couple of significant injuries, and Marwin gets to stay as the skeleton key to solve whatever problem you don't know you have yet. I'd love to finish this off by trading for Jon Gray. But regardless, you have to give some props to Falvine for making the big move

Well, I would have preferred to have Gibson back: Gibson is younger, has been healthier (despite last year's obvious struggles), and has been a bit better overall. Even when Gibby has been struggling he's been good at chewing up innings. About the only sure thing Bailey has going on is that he's cheaper. Taking Gibson out of the equation, and Bailey is...fine? As a move to keep the floor of the rotation higher and have some insurance against someone like Thorpe not being ready or uncertainty about if/when Rich Hill is back, or how much time Pineda needs to get into game shape...sure. We've got a good pitching coach, his splitter is good, so it's a Martin Perez kind of move (which worked for a couple of month before basically falling apart). If that's the expectation, well ok. I think I would have preferred Gausman and I definitely would have rather brought back Gibson, but with both of those guys off the table I like this as an insurance play. but to me, that really all it is: an insurance play for depth, against injury, against uncertainty, against youth, etc. If he pitches like it's 2014 or the second half of 2019, it's a win. But expecting 2012 or even 2013 Bailey is unrealistic. (Now, i will say that if you give 20+ starts to a guy whose ERA+ is 99 and he's your 5th guy? That actually ends up being pretty good for you for the regular season. I've said it many times and I'll keep saying it: one of the easiest paths to competitiveness is giving as few innings to terrible players as possible. Raising the floor is good, and the twins did a lot of that last year. Bailey might be a guy who keeps the floor fairly high. I expect no more from him, I'm afraid.

Because they're only off by 375K and there's no way that Team Berrios submitted a number that represented their absolute floor, one where if they don't get it they're pissed. And there's no way the Twins offered their absolute ceiling, a number which they'll go to the wall to keep from pay beyond. So if they don't work out a multiyear extension it's very likely they meet somewhere in the middle before a hearing.

Do they, though? Let's look at the actual stats for the last 3 years from bRef: Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average/year (at 3B, based on a projection of 1200 innings): 2017: -16 2018: -6 2019: -13 BIS Defensive Runs Saved Above Average/year (at 3B, based on projection of 1200 innings): 2017: -9 2018: -15 2019: -8 How is that getting appreciably worse? I'm not going to say that he's good by any means at 3B, but suggesting the advanced stats are saying he's getting worse at 3B (or suggesting he's too fat to play 3B) just isn't borne out by the evidence. Yes, he's "worse" than his age 23 season (where he played only 42 games at 3B, fewer than any time in the last 3 years, and roughly half of what he actually played there in 2017 & 2019...maybe small sample size was a factor there?) and his age 22 season...where he only played 9 games at 3B and any projection makes little sense. The sabermetrics are telling me that Sano is a fairly poor fielder at 3B, and has been for the past three years. They're not telling me much about whether he's getting better or worse overall; the best argument is probably that's he's basically been the same guy on defense there for the last three years. (and incidentally they also say he's awful in the OF and should never play there and the jury's out on him at 1B) Back to Kris Bryant: would I be interested in dealing Larnach and a tier three lottery ticket from A-ball for Bryant? I'd definitely think about it. I'd still rather just sign Donaldson, and I'd still rather spend prospect capital on pitching, but now we're talking a deal that at least makes more sense for the Twins. But you have to be betting that Kris Bryant is going to get back to his all-star form and will like it enough here that he'd consider staying, either signing an extension early or sticking when he hits FA. He's been an elite player, but hasn't been one for a few years. He is young enough that getting a rebound right now is certainly very possible, so if the deal lines up it's worth considering. But a package of Kirilloff/Lewis + one of Graterol/Larnach/Balazovic and a kicker from the ranks of someone at the Blankenhorn level is a pretty massive overpay, IMHO.

You're suggesting the Twins deal 2 of their top 5 prospects and throw in another one that's probably in the mid-20's for a player that's suing his current organization and is already going to be making $15M+ in year 1 with us, will get close to $20M in year 2 and could possibly be gone after that? Pretty sure we could get Syndergaard out of the Mets for less. I know we could get Jon Gray for less of a prospect haul. If we're giving up top prospects, I want top pitching, not a rental of a guy getting spendy at 3B., especially when he hasn't been anywhere near his MVP form for 2 years. Note: Bryant's D has taken a significant hit the last two seasons, so let's not pretend that he's going to suddenly turnaround our 3B defense. Yes, he's better at 3B than Sano but both guys value is tied to their offense right now.

well, Castro was a FA signing, not an extension...if your issue is multiyear deals in general, we also did multiyear deals on Marwin Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz. (yes, 2 years is a multiyear deal. yes, a team option counts) so that's 6 in 3 years and 5 in the last 2. It's not like they're ignoring this option, or letting guys walk instead of signing them to a multiyear pact.

Like the multi-year extensions given to Polanco, Kepler, and now Sano? I think the problem with Berrios on a long term deal is he's going into his year 26 season and is just hitting his first year of arbitration. There's a lot of variables for both sides to consider and it's not a simple construct. It's a lot harder to work out what a "fair" deal is and what both sides even want. Berrios has been healthy and good (almost exactly as good as Wheeler, who just got $118M and everyone wanted to be our ace next year, over the last 2 seasons). It's not crazy at all for Berrios to think, I want to get to FA as soon as I can, because I'm already as good as a guy who just scored a ton of money. I'm guessing he's not interested in buying out a year of FA right now; if he had a significant injury I bet he'd be a bit more interested. For the Twins, this is a guy who has been healthy and good and is just coming into his prime. But he's had a second half lull in the past two years and there's some risk that this is who he is: there's not another leap to take (which is what Wheeler's contract is about: every team that bid on him was better that he has another gear to unlock). There's also the question of injury: just because someone has been healthy doesn't guarantee that they will STAY healthy. You're trying to guess on whether or not the innings he's piling up are a signal that he's just a horse who isn't vulnerable to stress injuries or if he's a guy who is going to blow out their elbow after 1000 MLB innings and never be the same player. A Berrios extension is the most complicated to calculate of any of the arbitration guys. Not surprised that one hasn't been figured out. I'd like it to happen, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't. Also, I'm not worried at all about the $375K difference in their numbers. They're close enough together that Berrios isn't going to be insulted, the team isn't going to be pissed if they lose in arbitration, which means that no one has to get too aggressive if it gets to a hearing (and they could settle easily by splitting the difference somewhere near the middle before it ever gets there. wanna give him a "win" if you're the team? Instead of offering a 50% split, go 60-65% because $50K means nothing to your budget). Taylor Rogers came in a bit higher than I thought, Buxton a bit lower, but none of the settlements looked too weird and I think everyone probably walks out fairly happy so far.

I like this deal a lot. It's a good one for both sides: Sano gets life-altering money locked in (important for a guy with some injury history), and the Twins get cost certainty for the next two years with a good price on the first 2 years of free agency...but not so good that Sano is going to be pissed off after 1 year of the deal if he stays healthy and crushes the ball again. And especially if Sano sticks at 3B his market as a FA was going to be pretty significant. Even if he moves to 1B, he's going to have plenty of suitors; this isn't CJ Cron we're talking about. Cron's never gotten higher than 2.0 bWAR in his best seasons; Sano (despite the injuries) has 3 seasons that are better than that, and he's 3 years younger. Sano's floor is a 2 bWAR guy for the next 3 years; if he can play 120 games (a bit of an if since he's never done it) the floor looks a lot more like 3 bWAR with the ceiling more like 5 or so.. That's a guy who would get paid as a FA, not someone scrambling for a job in Feb. Sano's power is immense, and his HR rate isn't going to be messed up by changes to the ball, or do people really think he was getting cheap, juiced ball HRs last year? It plays in every park.

maybe he can play sax, since he doesn't have the extra bass. *runs away giggling*

Feels a little like Donaldson is using all the other suitors to try and get Atlanta to up their bid for him, which is apparently where he wants to play. Which, good for him and all, get what you want, but I suspect this is where a lot of the pessimism is coming from with the FO. My guess is they've got a offer in that they think is competitive and bigger than Atlanta's and Team Donaldson is trying to get all the suitors to go higher in an attempt to get Atlanta to improve their offer, and right now Atlanta is the team that's not really moving. I can understand being frustrated by being used as a stalking horse. Personally, I'd ramp up trade discussions with the Red Sox. I'd be very happy adding Price to this team, they could add him without giving up a lot in prospects because of the desire to dump salary over in Boston and they have the budget room to eat most (almost all) of his contract without a problem. So give back a mid-range prospect and a low-A lottery ticket and get the deal done.

Prospect deals are hard. Fans like us usually overvalue our prospects to some degree and we all live in fear of dealing someone who will almost immediately turn around and make a huge leap, becoming a perennial all-star, while the player we traded for busts out. I'll admit it, I get wobbly on that one too. But the deal for Thor is a flat-out no for me, and I don't think I'm being a Twins homer on this one. Buxton is an elite CF, whose only issue is staying healthy. Moving on from him means stretching Kepler in CF for next season, and hoping Royce Lewis is ready in a hurry and can handle the position switch. So there's that issue on why it's a bad play for the Twins from that aspect. but throwing in Kirilloff is exactly why this is a huge no. He's almost MLB ready right now and is an elite hitting prospect (yes, his stock is going to drop after nagging injuries last year, but this is a guy who was a top 20 prospect in all of baseball going into last year). This would be a monster win for the Mets (trading from an area of strength) and a desperation play for the Twins (screwing up another spot, paying too much) all to get a guy who you're hoping was unlucky last year, can get back to keeping the ball in the park at an elite level, can crank up his Ks again to be an elite pitcher and not just a good one. I don't love the idea of dealing Buxton, period, but I'm sure as hell not giving up one of our top 3 prospects along with him for a guy who need a bounceback. Of course the Mets would take this deal. This is probably the deal the Mets proposed at the deadline.

I'm not all that interested in trading for a position player right now; I want Donaldson because he's an elite player who can fill a need while significantly raising bar and only costing money. I'd much rather spend assets on trading for pitching; there's several 1B options on the FA market if Donaldson can't be convinced to leave Atlanta that would replace Cron's production nicely. Bell's a good hitter but prying a 27-year old relatively cheap asset out of Pittsburgh isn't going to be cheap. If he can sustain this level of offensive production while making marginal improvements on D, he's a borderline all-star. But is that the guy we want to dump a haul of prospect assets on? Especially if there's a concern that Sano isn't going to stick at 3B? You're not getting Bell for Rooker & Romero and an A-ball guy. Pittsburgh might not demand Royce Lewis, but they're going to want a significant asset to headline the package, not a couple of guys that are in the 20-25 range in the system. Archer is the more interesting guy over at Pittsburgh, IMHO.

"replacement" level in WAR is 0. Castro was significantly better than replacement level. His first, healthy year he was a solid starting catcher. His second year he was injured (it happens) and he didn't add (or subtract) much value since he barely played. His 3rd year, he was a backup and played like one. Since you can't predict injury, I think the contract ends up being fine. We got the starter we needed in year one, and by the time the contract was up, Garver was in place to take his ABs. That's not a bad result from a free agency move. If he hadn't blown out the knee, there's little doubt in my mind that he easily outperforms the contract. Since there's injury risk in every contract, you can't flip out too much about the results.

That's a pretty limited view, and frankly I don't want a front office that can only see one path to success. Donaldson is an elite player, a former MVP who improves the team substantially and would do a lot to guard against regression for the offense while making a big improvement to the defense. Yes, he's not the elite pitcher we all wanted, but we're not the only team who whiffed on landing that impact starting pitching. Bailey's a stop-gap, insurance against not making a trade for a better player, IMHO. Or Thorpe/Graterol not being ready to counted on as starters. He's just a guy and we're rolling the dice on our excellent pitching coach being able to get something out of him, at least until Pineda is back or Hill is available again. It's not the worst bet in the world and it's a move to keep the floor from falling out, and as I've noted before: a significant aspect to season-long success is keeping innings (or ABs, or time in the field) out of the hands of terrible players.

I'd prefer Gibson over Bailey (or Hill, who can't be trusted) but I have zero interest in Perez. I was fine with bringing Gibson back, but understood that he might need a fresh start considering his baggage in MN (years as a tease, the recent injury struggles, etc). And I get not throwing money at him while you're trying to land Wheeler, Bumgarner, or Ryu (all better pitchers). But replacing him with Homer Bailey is thoroughly uninspiring. The commitment is relatively light and it's better to have a guy like him with some potential in place for the start of the season over needing 2 guys to step up from internal rookie-type options, but it's hard to pretend this is a good option, more like a least-bad one. Now, if they sign Donaldson it's a successful off-season anyways, just maybe not the A-plan. But if they can't get Donaldson, they really need to make a move on the trade market.

Because a) we have young talent in the minors that could replace some of them, and we need impact pitching and some teams might want MLB talent over minor league lottery tickets.

How is Jon Gray like Gibson? Gray is 28, Gibson 32. Gray has an ERA+ over 130 in 2 of the last 3 years, has only had one year below 100 after his short first season in MLB (where he only played 9 games) and has a career average ERA+ of 110. Gibson has never had an ERA+ of 130. Gibson has never had an ERA+ of 120. Gibson has only had an ERA+ over 100 in 2 seasons in his career. About the only thing Gibson has ever done better than Gray is pitch more innings in a season...which might have more to do with Gray having to pitch in Colorado than anything else. Gray is a terrific trade target and I'd love to grab him. He profiles a lot like Berrios and would improve the top of the rotation significantly. But the reality is a trade is more likely to be done with minor league assets over MLB ones. Sano has more trade value than Rosario; he's a better hitter at a better price, could slot in at 3B/1B/DH and be a force in almost any team's lineup. Rosario's trade value is closer to Cave's (Rosario is more proven, with more power; Cave is cheaper, probably a bit better defensively). You don't give either away, but neither is the centerpiece for a trade for a top line MLB pitcher. Thorpe is really hard to value right now: maybe he's a mid-rotation starter, maybe he's a guy who needs to re-tool and end up in the bullpen. No one knows yet, though I think he's more to the first than the latter. He's got a lot of value right now...but he's also the most likely internal candidate ready to fill in the rotation NOW. So he's not a good trade chip in a lot of ways. The best trade assets the Twins have in MLB are actually Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, and Luis Arraez...but these are in the Twins core and unlikely to be dealt for anything. (Buxton is probably ahead of Garver but his injury history means he's more tradeable)

Go make the deal for Price. Eat most if not all of the contract (for it is money we have and pitching we lack) and keep the prospect cost lower. Price slots in nicely alongside Berrios and is certainly better (or at least consistently better) than Gibson, which sets up the rotation pretty darn well. We know Boston wants to dump salary, we know he's the contract they most want to move. Let's go for it. The risk really isn't that bad, especially for a team whose window is open right now. I wouldn't mind finding one more veteran since Pineda is going to miss the first 6 weeks or so. Yes, you don't need a 5th starter as often early on, but it would be better to only need 1 internal guy to step up. (Thorpe is my choice). Offseason isn't a failure yet, but it's disheartening to see the Twins miss on every top FA pitcher. Some of it wasn't really in their hands, but the reality is part of the front office's job is to overcome those objections and sell the player and agent on coming to your city. And if they couldn't sell it, then they bear a share of responsibility for that too.

He's 2 years away from free agency; he could be the mayor of Nashville and if he's dealt he's coming or he's not getting paid. Now, might that mean he'll run away as soon as he hits free agency? maybe, but with 2 more arbitration years on the table, that's a concern for another day. Matz is interesting if the price is right and Wes Johnson thinks he can do something with him to add a tick to the fastball or ramp up the control or something. Otherwise, he's a good 4th starter and doesn't move the needle much.