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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    The Nolasco deal was a bad one, and I think most of Twins Daily disliked it at the time. The Castro signing was fine; bad luck he got hurt last year, but he was a nice player for us in year 1 (bWAR 2.5). Ervin Santana had a decent first season (where he missed a a ton of time due to suspension, not Twins fault), was terrific the next 2 years and then fell off the cliff. But it was a reasonable contract that worked out ok, just ended badly. I mean if you consider that 1 WAR is frequently listed as being worth $8-9M...Castro's still on pace to outplay his contract and Ervin was more than worth the deal he signed. Nolasco was the bad one and that regime is gone. I don't think the Twins are going to spend to this year's payroll, but they'll clear $100M, and probably end up closer to $110-$120M, unless a fairly significant FA wants to come here. That's still plenty of payroll space to fill in the holes on the roster.
  2. jmlease1
    I think what you see from the statistical analysis is that 1B scoops are an activity that's memorable, not frequent. They're valuable, because they erase a baserunner and frequently save at least 1 base (and can often save more than that), but because of the frequency of the occurrence, it's not as impactful a skill over the course of a season. It sticks out in people's minds because it's a cool play, because it looks impressive (and is!), and it often results in spinning what could be a disaster error into an out, so we remember it. But is it worth trading 5-10 scoops for 15 hrs? It is. There's a reason modern defensive metric have the position adjustments they doing when calculating things like WAR: certain positions just aren't as impactful as others. I love having a 1B who can clean up the poor throws. And there might be a secondary effect that we're not able to quantify (yet) when players who have less reliable arms are throwing to a guy who they know is skilled and handling anything that comes at him...but it's hard to say it's significant. Bottom line: I think we can live defensively with Polanco at SS. Which means we have flexibility in filling in the hole in the middle INF. Get the best player we can at either SS or 2B and feel ok with Polanco manning the other spot. I'm betting it'll be easier to fill 2B with a more impactful player, so I'm ok with keeping Polanco at SS.
  3. jmlease1
    Not sure about the interest in DeRosa or Ross. Neither leaps off the page as being a must-hire. Maybe those are the smoke screens. Espada is a pretty interesting candidate, I think.
  4. jmlease1
    I'm fine with leaving Polanco at SS. I agree with Tom: I'm not sure the gains we're likely to get on D are worth what we're likely to give up on offense. Of course, you have to look at it holistically: we have to fill a hole in the middle infield this offseason. Where are we more likely to find success and increased overall production? Despite losing Polanco for half a year, Dozier being awful, Sano & Buxton being injured and awful, Morrison adding nothing, and Kepler not improving on offense the twins still finished 6th in the league in scoring, and the top 5 teams in the AL in scoring made the playoffs. Maybe we're better off with the offensive-minded SS?
  5. jmlease1
    I'm a little nervous that Cave will fall off next year; the .368 BABIP and the 33% K rate make me nervous about the sustainability of his approach, especially now that teams will have plenty of tape on him. Still a fine pickup, but I think I would have put Rogers emergence as a guy to be counted on in the 'pen might end up being more notable. feels like the only issue for Rogers is whether or not his ability to keep the ball in the park this year was fluky or a sign for the future. but even if he regresses a little there, he's still a guy who can be an important piece in the bullpen. I'm really happy for Gibson, a guy I bashed relentlessly for most of this season. I called him The Tease for months. I'm happy to be proven wrong about him. I think his success this year IS sustainable, because it's the result of a different approach, not just a little luck. Changing up his pitch mix and his approach really did change his results and he was a consistent pitcher all year. This should be repeatable, and I'm happy to have him in the rotation next year.
  6. jmlease1
    I'm aware. He's likely to repeat at AA next year and will not be considered young for his level next season, which is my point. He was also older than Kohl Stewart, Lewis Thorpe, and Zack Littell (who started at AA last year). A lot of the guys on the AA pitching staff who are older don't have the brightest of futures with this or any other franchise. I'm rooting for Wells. His ability to keep the ball in the park is a real skill and he's shown it his whole career. but people are talking him up like he on a fast track to the MLB club, and I don't know that I'm seeing it. If the BBs stay in the 3.5/9 range at AA next season, it won't bode well for his future, IMHO.
  7. jmlease1
    There's a really nice collection of players in this all-star lineup. Ben Rortvedt probably would have been my pick at C, as he had a solid hitting season despite advancing up to high A and reportedly his defensive skills are developing well. he looks like a guy who will stick at the position as long as he can hit enough and right now, that's looking more and more likely. He had a nice season and as jkcarew notes: he wasn't just a part-timer there. Can't wait to see what Kirilloff does at AA next year (you have to start him there, right? I mean, he KILLED A-ball). I suspect Lewis starts back at Ft. Myers and moves up sometime during the year. Does Baddoo get promoted to Ft. Myers to start the year? If he can hit there as a 20 year-old he'll be on a fast track, I think. I'll admit to being a little concerned about the low average and high Ks. Wells was terrific, but he's going to need to refine his command. he doesn't walk guys like Gonsalves, but I'd be happier seeing him lower that rate in the minors. He's not young for his level and should have a more advanced approach than his peers. It will be interesting to see who emerges as the better pitcher: Wells or Lewis Thorpe (who had a very solid season, including respectable performances at AAA).
  8. jmlease1
    I would love for the Twins to add an impact arm this offseason. I don't know that it has to be a "closer", a role that tends to overpay and under use pitchers. Frankly, that was one of the best things about signing rodney; the lesser arm could roll out for the 9th and better players could play fireman to get us there. It would be my preference for 2019: utilize May & Rogers to address late inning roles against the meat of a team's lineup based on matchup rather than limit one of them to finishing the game in the 9th. I think Reed will have a bounce back year. He clearly wasn't right (maybe got overused early in the season?), but he's got enough of a track record to suggest there should still be some mileage left there to be a contributor. He was terrific in April and wasn't all that bad in May before things started imploding on him. I'm reluctant to read anything into his solid Sept, as the small sample size and expanded rosters make those games a little questionable to project off of. But maybe the real key to the Twins bullpen next year is a different manager. The biggest knock on Molitor was his bullpen useage; here's hoping the next guy does better.
  9. jmlease1
    Love seeing Blankenhorn, Rooker, and Jax get a shot in the AFL. Can't wait to see how they do, especially the hitters. Both had encouraging years and it will be interesting to see how they do after playing a full season getting some additional time. Will they be a bit worn down or has the short time off been enough to rejuvenate them? Either way some great opportunities here.
  10. jmlease1
    Gibson pitched 4 1/3 more innings. It's a push. Gibson had a better ERA, Berrios had a better FIP. Berrios had a better K/9, BB/9, H/9, WHIP...the peripherals around Berrios are just a bit better. They had similar overall seasons and their bWAR is almost identical (fWAR thinks Berrios was significantly more valuable, but that's a different story) but I think most teams around MLB would take Berrios over Gibson and not just on age.
  11. jmlease1
    Excellent year for Berrios, no question he should be a mainstay at the top of rotation. For those thinking "he's still not an ace!": he was Top 10 in WHIP, K/9, and IP in the AL. He was just outside the Top 10 in bWAR and ERA. He's a #1 starter on most teams in baseball. Love watching him pitch. I love the fact that he not only increased his number of starts this season but also his innings per start. H/9, K/9, BB/9 have improved three years in a row. He's a pitcher on the rise and if we can improve the back end of the rotation behind him, find a consistent bullpen, and settle on a lineup that gives him the run support he deserves, next year could be delightful.
  12. jmlease1
    There have been people (usually ill-informed or using very limited metrics to describe what counts as being "great") bashing him for the last 10 years. To suggest Mauer had little impact on games during his prime is to ignore the actual games. Dude won an MVP and by every metric and considered opinion out there he deserved it! And boy howdy there are plenty of guys in the Hall who you need to pull out stats to explain why they are there (seriously: how else do you explain how players who died before you were born got there? yank out press clippings about the actress they dated?) Your RBI comment suggests you're lost in the past. Joe Mauer throughout his career got hits with runners in scoring position. that means he didn't make outs and increased his team's chances of winning. How many high OBP guys batted in front of Joe throughout his Twins career? Take out Mauer's MVP season and he's still a 5-time all-star who won 2 batting titles at catcher. not that we should ignore that season just because it doesn't fit with someone's narrative, but he easily could have been on his second MVP at that point, because was as good as anyone in 2006 too. he was a great, great player and we were cheated of seeing him compete for more batting titles by the concussion. I'm happy to keep "defending" Joe Mauer, because people have been treating him unfairly (mostly in MN) ever since he signed the big extension. I was lucky enough to watch a Hall of Famer's entire career played for my favorite team, which also happened to be his favorite team too. That's something worth celebrating, and the naysayers need to get out of the Bitter Barn and come play in hay (JMO).
  13. jmlease1
    This. I never hated Molitor as manager, but I always felt like there were a few too many of those, "seriously?" moments.
  14. jmlease1
    His FIP dropping simply means he pitched better, but it's not like it's an out of character number for him; he posted better numbers in both 2014 & 2015. I'm slightly more concerned about the differential between his ERA and his FIP, which suggests he was actually a little lucky at times. The BABIP is certain a reason why he improved this year, but despite the big drop it's not like this is an out of character number for him: he had very similar number in 2014 & 2015. I'm much more concerned about a drop in BABIP (or a spike for hitters) when it's an outlier. The innings is another one where he's done this before: 194.2 in 2015. I'm hopeful this is an indicator of long term success in part because he was operating with a different pitch mix and approach, and showed much greater consistency than the last two years.
  15. jmlease1
    One of the biggest reasons the coterie of anti-Mauer people kept rolling along was because of the never ending contempt spewed forth by one Dan Barreiro, who used his platform on KFAN to consistently slap Joe Mauer around. Of course, Barreiro is one of these guys lost in history who still thinks that RBI is a preeminent stat in determining a player's value, thinks OBP is "cute", and only thinks hr hitters should get the big contracts. but the biggest reason Joe Mauer was the consistent target for his venom was...he didn't go on Barreiro's show and give him good quotes! (guess why Torii Hunter has never done any wrong?) It's a shame. I'm really going to miss Joe Mauer. The gorgeous swing. The doubles into the gap. The sight of him always seeming to be on base. The sneaky good base running for a guy with iffy knees and not a lot of speed (how many base running mistake do you recall Mauer making...ever?). And in his prime he was a wonderful catcher in every respect. I wish he'd gotten the gold glove at 1B he deserved last year, too.
  16. jmlease1
    I agree with this one as well. And after many months of referring to Kyle Gibson as "The Tease"...I'm retiring the label. His consistency this season was much improved. His peripherals were better. He looked a lot more like the guy we saw in 2015 than the frustrating one from the last 2 years, but it looks like he achieved it through a change in approach rather than just hoping for the best and running out the same old plan. I don't expect Kyle Gibson to be an elite pitcher. But I think he can be a stalwart in the rotation who keeps you in games, chews up innings, and has a good plan out there every start. that's really valuable. He's probably going to hover in that 2-4 bWAR range the next 3-4 seasons, and I'd be very comfortable extending him at this point. (If he has a season where the BB/9 drop to the 2-2.5 range for a season and everything else stays to the good, he'll probably be an all-star, but based on his consistent track record of being a 3-3.5 BB/9 guy it's important to realize that would be an outlier and not something to expect) Something I found notable about this year: Gibson had 15 starts with a Game Score of 60 or above, but only 7 with a Game Score of 40 or less. Contrast that to 2017, where he was at only 3 at 60 or above and 8 at 40 or less. This year his worst Game Score was a 29; last year he had three games at 28, 17, and 15. 2018 he had 5 Game Scores of 70 or higher. 2017 he had 1. The ceiling was higher, the floor was higher and the overall performance was simply better and we got to have more of it. really happy for him, and glad he found an approach that works for him consistently.
  17. jmlease1
    Astudillo has earned the right to compete for a roster spot, but he's not a guy I'm prepared to count on at this point. Might be a useful utility guy if we can keep the pitching staff down to a reasonable number. But until he hits like this outside of september, I'm holding judgement after being fooled by the september exploits of Parmelee, Chris and Buxton, Byron... Gonsalves clearly needs more work. The walks are going to get him killed, even more so than for Stewart (whose groundball % can at least erase some of those mistakes with a double play). It's hard to find excuses for him: this was his same problem at AAA.
  18. jmlease1
    agree with all of this. I hope Joe comes back for one or two more, though. He's been an amazing player who has been treated poorly by media idiots like Dan Barreiro who still can't get over the fact that he's not interested in giving them a juicy quote or appearing on their shows. (or are stuck in a world where RBIs are an important measure of a player's hitting ability) I think he can still help this team and he's still fun to watch, so I hope he still finds it fun to play the game and wants to come back for at least another year. This one was a disappointment and I'd love for him to be able to go out on a higher note.
  19. jmlease1
    Wonder if they'll move him up a level next year? At his age, he needs to move up fairly rapidly. But that power potential in the middle of the infield is tempting! And if he can play some 3B as well, the positional flexibility would add to his value.
  20. jmlease1
    It's an interesting question: how locked in should you be to the "avoid the 3rd time through" strategy? How do you evaluate how much of a pitcher's struggles the 3rd time through against a team's best hitters is due to fatigue or familiarity? If it's familiarity, then a fairly rigid approach makes sense. If it's due more to fatigue, then you have to think about it a little more, especially if a guy is at 75 pitches and rolling along. nice to see Kohl Stewart have another good outing, though obviously September production is always a little suspect (see also Parmelee, Chris). The decline in BBs is exactly what he needs to be doing and it's nice to see how close his FIP is to his ERA. he's a very interesting case right now, and I think the Twins were fortunate he slipped through Rule 5 last year.
  21. jmlease1
    By that formulation, we wouldn't have either Royce Lewis (who appears to be on a star track) or Alex Kirilloff (who is on track to be an elite hitter). Passing on either of those guys would have been a mistake, I think. Blanket rules like this are how teams get into trouble. If you lock yourself too tightly into a formulation like that you miss guys who might not fit the mold perfectly but could bring elite strengths. That sort of rigidity in thinking is how good players got passed up because they had the wrong body type or other nonsense. The bigger problem here is the Twins thought they were smarter than everyone else and could turn college relievers into starters, and it completely busted out. Kohl Stewart was drafted out of high school and his development has taken a while...but he made the major leagues. 39 players were selected in the "1st round" in 2013, and of those 13 have still never played in the majors...including the #1 overall pick, a college pitcher. Despite this being Stewart's first shot at the majors, he actually ranks 14th in bWAR when compared to his 1st round peers. Looking at the rest of the pitchers drafted below him, the only one that jumps out where you go clearly, "yeah, wish we had that guy" is Sean Manaea...who just had season-ended shoulder surgery. So maybe this pick isn't ending up so awful.
  22. jmlease1
    which is unquestionably a major reason why we have a new front office. the strategy of drafting college relievers to turn them into starters was a major bust. Much as I like out of the box thinking and trying to find an efficiency no one else might be capitalizing on, this one was a serious fail. I can't think of a single reliever we successfully converted into a starter in this period. Ugh. Kohl Stewart is an interesting case. The twins make have been fortunate he slipped through the Rule 5 draft last year, because he's got some things that are working for him. Inducing tons of ground balls, keeping the ball in the park, and frequent weak contact can be a successful formula...but he's got to improve the control. The free passes will keep him in borderline status if he can't reign them in. he's going to have enough base runners as it is when balls inevitably bleed through, so handing out extras via walks will make him a guy who simply can't get through enough innings. but he's interesting. He's not that old. He's got a couple of pitches that are working for him. If the team can just refine that approach a little, sharpen his pitches up a little, improve that control a bit...he could be a guy that could chew up a lot of a innings for you and keep you in games. With the focus on launch angle and power hitting, and so many players not worrying about Ks...maybe there's a place for a guy who induced wimpy grounders. Maybe he could be a guy that frustrates the crap out of these power hitters who can't quite square up on his stuff. but he's got to throw more strikes, because right now the book on him is going to be "don't chase anything".
  23. jmlease1
    I love Kepler as an OF. I'm not happy about his growth as a hitter. RF is considered to be an offensive position, so if you're not generating offense there, you need to be making up for it elsewhere, and that's harder to do. I had Kepler pegged as the most likely player to have a breakout season, and the reality is he stood in place. When you need your young players to continue to develop, that's frustrating. In three seasons he may have revealed himself as a slightly below average hitter who plays excellent defense in a non-premium defensive position, with a little positional flexibility. Am I wrong, or doesn't that profile more like a 4th OF than a starter? FanGraphs seems to agree with me. fWAR of 1.2, 1.4, and 2.4 over the last three years with this year needing a BIG leap in his defensive stats to get him to starter status. I love Max Kepler. I'm rooting for Max Kepler. but if I'm the Twins, I'm worried about RF. (In addition to being worried about 3B) The twins have options at 1B, 2B, questions at SS, BIG questions at 3B, options at C, settled at LF, questions at CF, questions at RF, and some questions at DH. Yikes. The lineup is frankly much scarier than the pitching staff right now. We have more established guys in the rotation and in the 'pen than we do in the lineup right now, with internal options that have promise for every questionable area/hole. They're not perfect and there's real risk in not adding outside talent...but I see more holes in the lineup.
  24. jmlease1
    I think by "covered" Ted is suggesting that for the first time in a long while we don't have the same kinds of desperate needs to sign a starter. There's a legitimate possibility that the twins could cover their starting pitching through internal assets, which is something that would have been ridiculous to state as recently as a year ago. I'm sure the Twins will explore adding another starter, and almost certainly one that would fit closer to the top than the bottom. But part of the point here is we don't have a team that absolutely needs to sign a back of the rotation guy just to be able to fill out the staff. That's a good thing and a real improvement. I'm not in the "we need an ace or it's all a bust!" mode that some Twins fans seem to be in. I'd be happy to add a guy who falls into the category of "better than Kyle Gibson" if we can't sign one of the upper-upper-echelon guys; there has to be a realization that there are very few of those and betting the house on landing one isn't much of a strategy.
  25. jmlease1
    Rosario seems to have gone back more to the OF we were hoping he'd be in 2015 and rebounded nicely from an awful defensive year in 2017. If he can continue to be the kind of hitter he's been the last two season and the defender he's been in every year other than 2017, he's a very nice corner OF and someone to build with. Kepler had a disappointing season, there's no way around it. He simply did not take a significant step forward on offense, which leaves him in a bad spot. He's an excellent defender in the corners and an acceptable one in center, but without more offense he's profiling as a nice 4th OF, not a starter. What to do about RF is a little bit of a problem for the Twins. Kirilloff looks like the real deal, but is he 1 year away or 2? And while he's destroyed A-ball, the jump to AA can be a tough one. Betting on him to be the RF of the future in a year is a definite gamble. So do you keep rolling with Kepler as a starter or do you go looking for FA in what should be one of the easier positions fill to protect yourself from having to rush Kirilloff or as insurance in case he actually isn't the sure thing? Lord knows, i don't want to run with Robbie Grossman as a starting RF! Is lamonte wade ready to contribute next year? He didn't hit enough at AAA this year to give you a lot of confidence there. Figuring out RF is something the twins need to do, and I think it's one of the harder decisions. I generally agree with Nick's priorities, but #6 is RF to me.
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