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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'm not a fan of Schoop. His 2017 season is starting to look like a fluke year to me; just not seeing him put up another BABIP of .330, which was driving some of that. I think he'll bounce back and be a decent power bat at 2B, but his ceiling looks like a 2-2.5 WAR player. I suspect his true value is the 2015-2016 version, not 2017. The low OBP is not what this team needs right now, that's for sure.
  2. jmlease1
    Lol, I'm sure Seth meant "Tendered" on Cron. I agree with all of these. I know there's some who aren't in favorite of Odorizzi, but he was solid enough as a back end guy and there's real value in a guy who you can pencil in for 30 starts and feel competitive with him. He had a nice bounceback season and if he can cut down the walks back to 2015-2016 levels, he'll be a very solid 4th guy.
  3. jmlease1
    Torii Hunter: 2013 defensive bWAR: -1.5 2014 defensive bWAR: -2.3 2015 defensive bWAR: -1.4 Fangraphs might have liked him a bit better, but he was as bad in 2013 as he was in 2015 by at least one measure. Isn't it more like Torii just had an extra bad year his second year in Detroit and reverted back towards the mean than Target Field was so much easier for him to play RF? It's possible you're right and just being in Target Field can cover some of the shortcomings of a RF with bad range and declining glove skills, but Kepler is just flat-out great and it doesn't matter what park it is. he makes all the plays out there and makes plays he shouldn't be able to do. a big part of his value is in the OF defense he brings to the table. you may not think that matters, but I'm guessing the pitching staff disagrees...
  4. jmlease1
    Torii was not a "league average" defender out there in 2015, not even close. he was almost exactly as awful as he was in 2013 with the Tigers, he just wasn't as horrendously abysmal as he was in 2014 with the Tigers. Torii was 2017 Eddie Rosario in Target Field: awful. target Field did not make Torii a league average player again, he was in fact a sub-replacement level player by bWAR. I don't think Target Field is some bandbox with high walls to keep the HRs in play, either. And yes, with Buxton in CF the RF doesn't have to cover as much territory, but with a fielder of Kepler's capacity whomever is playing CF can shade over to LF and help Rosario out without losing anything.
  5. jmlease1
    Yeah, just not loving the idea of putting Kepler at 1B, I mean I guess it might be better than having him DH as a way to get more LH hitters in the lineup because his size and athleticism should translate well there, but man...we're doing it for Jake Cave? I guess I wouldn't care about it for 10-12 games, but I'm hoping Kepler improves offensively and coupled with his elite D can be a mainstay in the OF. but he needs to hit, because if his hitting doesn't improve it's hard to justify his bat at any other position. People haven't been happy with Mauer's production at 1B, and Joe was elite defensively. We don't know if Max could match that D (maybe with enough play time?) and he's hit worse than Mauer the last three years and it's not really close. I do like the idea of letting Astudillo get 500 ABs, though. This lineup could use another high BA guy and it'd be fun as hell to see if he can be one of those guys who can get away with hacking at everything because he just hits it. Super utility guy who can hit over .300? sign me up.
  6. jmlease1
    I'd be fine with adding carlos santana; I think he's likely to have a bit of a bounce back year (career low BABIP last season almost certainly depressed that BA and SLG) and is still a 2-3 WAR player whose switch hitting and ability to hit LHP and get on base would be a solid fit with Cron. What confuses the heck out of me are the people in this thread advocating to move Max Kepler to 1B. Kepler's greatest value to the team last year was defensive and if you dump him in at 1B you diminish his greatest strengths right now (elite D in RF, above average D in CF, ability to PLAY CF effectively) while emphasizing his biggest weaknesses (hitting, hitting, hitting...). He's a terrific defensive player in the OF, why on earth would you move him to the least impactful defensive position on the field?
  7. jmlease1
    This is something of a marginal move, but I was never all that sold on Tyler Austin anyways. I'll have to go look at the FAs but I do think it would be good for this squad to get a high OBP LH hitter to help out. A lot of this probably comes down to Austin v. Cron, and if you had to bet on who's likely to be a better player next year...how do you not take Cron? He's got 2 years of being a 2 WAR player and neither had any unsustainable fluke elements like an out of character BABIP. There's nothing wonky in his splits (like beating the crap out of september callup pitching to pad the numbers) to make you freak out. He's probably a 1.5-2.4 bWAR guy for the next 2-3 years and I'd be nervous on betting Austin can come close to matching that. yes, he's going to cost more than Austin but he's also probably worth 1 more WAR than Austin. I'll take that marginal improvement for $4.5M, especially considering 1 WAR is worth about $8-9M. I'm not a big fan of Austin. Not sure he'll ever get the OBP to where it needs to be to be an effective Three True Outcomes guy. It was a fine acquisition to dump Lance Lynn, and he's a decent depth guy, but I'd much rather have Cron at this point.
  8. jmlease1
    It's going to be very interesting to see if Rogers improvement against RHB is real or one of those relief pitcher variable years. He was massively better against RHBs in 2018 vs 2017...but not that different from 2016. His ability to keep the ball in the park last year was the real key, i think, but it's hard to know how much of that was luck or skill with a relatively small data set. He's a useful pitcher even if he regresses some against RHBs again, but it's encouraging that there's an approach change that has coincided with his increased success. That does help me believe this may be more repeatable and an indicator of future success. no question, Twins will be looking to him as an important late-inning option.
  9. jmlease1
    Looks like a solid group. I'm not worried about their youth/lack of lengthy MLB coaching experience. It's not like this staff is filled up with people who have never coached before. There's some good diversity of experience and background that looks like a positive. Hopefully, they'll be able to work together effectively (probably the most underrated aspect of a coaching staff).
  10. jmlease1
    Sending Jax to the AFL to get some work in was a good call by management. he's an interesting prospect, and he's going to be one of the pitching prospects I'll be most curious about in the upcoming season. If he puts together a strong season, he could advance quickly. Fun story, he's got some talent, looking forward to seeing how it goes for him.
  11. jmlease1
    On a scale of 1-10, what do you think Joe Mauer's embarrassment level would have been if they'd done a farewell tour, like Mariano Rivera? 10? 14? 22? I'm also not betting against the idea that he's writing thank you notes to everybody he played with/against who paid tribute to him on social media.
  12. jmlease1
    No chance. Joe Mauer is so low-drama and anti-diva he'd never be able to do it. I mean, this is a guy who gets crucified regularly on KFAN for being too boring (and let's be honest, because he no interest in doing media appearances with Dan Barreiro). he just doesn't have the ego in him to try to reappear on the stage after being retired for a year or two. Especially since you know that the number one reason he's hanging it up is because he doesn't want to get another concussion and risk long-term health problems.
  13. jmlease1
    Loved Joe Mauer. What an amazing, beautiful swing. When I think of Joe at the plate, I'll always remember feeling like he was gonna get a hit. How could he not, with that eye and that swing? And then watch him rip another double to the opposite field gap in left center. I really wish he'd gotten the recognition he deserved as a defensive 1B; he should have won a gold glove there, and I really think it says something about who Joe Mauer is and what kind of player that he was that he made that position shift and wasn't satisfied with being solid (which he was almost immediately) but worked to become great defensively again. Good luck Joe, and enjoy retirement with your kids. I was hoping for one last run, but I don't blame you at all for hanging it up after the latest concussion. ****ing hell, concussions are bad ****.
  14. jmlease1
    How many of Scott Boras' "clients" actually get any time with Scott Boras himself? It's one of the reasons you see guys changing agents, not unusual for some of them to realize they may have signed with the super-agent, but he spends most of his time with other people. I'm certainly not worried about a couple of our minor league guys being signed with a blowhard agent who insults the franchise; they're already signed to the team. Don't know that I love Happ as a signing...I suspect if he gets a 3-year deal; that last year is going to be crap. (ineffective and/or injured) I keep thinking it about it this way: Kyle Gibson right now is our #2 starter. I'd like anyone we sign to be better than Kyle Gibson. Not sure Happ is that guy, he feels more like a 3 or 4 guy and seems unlikely to be as good next year as he was this year (and definitely not as good as he was for NY)
  15. jmlease1
    To your credit, you did rank Kirilloff #5 going into last year coming off a significant injury. Part of my concern is I'm worried that coming back from the shoulder injury is actually harder for a baseball player than Tommy John on a hitter. It's interesting to hear that you think the talent level is tightly bunched with the next ten guys after the top 3 (who I think everyone serious about it would say are the twins top 3, really). That's a pretty good sign for the system.
  16. jmlease1
    It's a fascinating scenario. I don't love slotting in Marwin Gonzalez; his positional flexibility is really nice, but I don't love paying him $11M a year. (and I don't love paying Grossman $4M either). Even in a "big-spender" mode those feel like less than great investments. Gonzalez hitting in 2017 looks like a fluke year, so dropping this kind of money on him doesn't make my socks roll up & down. The corbin signing would be a risk, but damn if it wouldn't be a hell of a splashy move. Berrios and Corbin would be really nice at the top of the rotation (and set the team up nicely for a playoff series), and Gibson & Pineda should be able to chew up innings well in the 3-4 slots, allowing Romero to develop with less pressure. Donaldson: I could see it. a 1 year "prove it" kind of deal to rebuild his value before he tries for one more big(ish) multi-year? It's not a crazy idea and it seems unlikely that he's going to get a 4-5 year offer at the kind of money he'll want. Maybe he could be convinced to bet on himself. Extend Berrios: love it. I'm 100% behind this. Extend Buxton: I love it and I hate it. Man, I just don't know. I want to believe! I'm afraid to believe.
  17. jmlease1
    I think Wander Javier is too high. I know he's young and has impressive tools, but he's also coming off a big injury and hasn't played any full-season baseball yet. Too much projection and uncertainty for me to have him all the way up at #4. I'd probably argue the most for Ben Rortvedt, who showed real improvement at the plate this year, with solid hitting not just at Cedar Rapids but also after his promotion to Ft. Myers. It looks like someone who will stick at catcher and if he's really improved his hit tool, then he's a much better prospect than #29. Frankly, I'm more excited about Rortvedt than I am Blankenhorn at this point. I suspect it's going to be a hard list this year with a lot of guys bunched around each other. No questions on who the top 3 are in my mind, and Seth has it nailed here. There's a really strong group coming through out of Ft. Myers right now! I wish I was feeling as positive about the guys who are closer to coming out of Rochester; several of those fellows sitting 6-10 have shown some definite question marks now that's they're in the top levels that they need to iron out if they're going to be star potential players and consistent starters, rather than reserves.
  18. jmlease1
    I dunno if this plan is achievable, but I kinda like it. McCutcheon is actually a pretty good fit for this team, and while he would cost quite a bit more than Grossman...I like him a lot better. Grossman was awful until September, has no defensive value, really and is basically a 1 trick pony. McCutcheon may have faded defensively, but he can still be solid in a corner and should be a consistent hitter. at 31 he's still likely to have a few more good years in him...maybe a 3-year deal?
  19. jmlease1
    I think there's a good point here: it's a lot easier to tear a team down to the studs after a brutal season like the 103 loss one. But they didn't and the team bounced back with an over-achieving 85 win season that put them in the playoffs. This season they got smacked around by injuries and so we dumped a bunch of guys unlikely to be part of the future/FAs. I think it gets to be a hard sell (especially in this community where ownership is perceived as cheap and not committed to winning) to start dealing younger players off the MLB roster for even more prospects, especially when the most heralded prospects in recent vintage haven't consistently graduated to become what we thought/hoped they would be. While Tom's strategy might end up being a smart one to set things up for 2021 or beyond (I'm sorry, but I think with all the moves proposed here, you're setting the MLB club back far enough that expecting them to be ready in 2020 is...unlikely) it probably gets the front office fired before it comes to fruition, unless guys like Royce Lewis & Alex Kirilloff stay on their fastest of tracks and have zero setbacks. I dunno. Of course, the bigger problem is Tom's lineup has 4 guys whose last name ends in "O", with a potential 5th in Astudillo and that's just going to wreak havoc with the announcing team.
  20. jmlease1
    I think I'd non-tender Grossman. He's going to be looking at raise in arbitration (shocking to most Twins fans, but that's the way the process works) and I'm not sure a no-power DH/poor defensive OF is a great for for this squad. The solid slugging in 2016 looks like a fluke year and I dunno if it's worth paying him $2.5-$3M for his OBP. Feels like there will be better options in FA to improve that slot on the 25-man. The only thing that makes this a little bit of a question is he is a switch hitter, but I suspect he's going to be increasingly ineffective against RHP, which costs value there too. I'd hate to end up keeping him on the roster if someone else outperforms him in Spring Training because we don't want to eat the contract. But maybe someone who has a better feel for the FA market will correct me.
  21. jmlease1
    Jax seems to be performing well, and it's good for him to get the additional innings, I think. Too bad Rooker isn't going to play at all.
  22. jmlease1
    I think if you look at every team's 40-man there's going to be 8-12 guys who fall into what you're calling "marginal" here. A more accurate word would be "unproven". Am I writing in Kohl Stewart or Stephan Gonsalves into the rotation in ink? Hardly, but they're both prospects who just got their first taste of the majors this year. Do I expect them to compete for a slot in the rotation? Absolutely. Guys like Curtiss or Moya are also young players that could be important contributors to the bullpen. These aren't flotsam, junk players with no real hope. These are legit prospects and if we cut them loose tomorrow (which you seem disturbingly comfortable with doing) they'd get snatched up immediately. Do we need to improve the roster? Of course. We're likely moving on from several guys that were on the 25 man for chunks of the season (Morrison, Santana, Mauer, Forsyth spring to mind). Those replacements are where we'll see the immediate gains. the 40-man is in pretty decent shape. It's got a few marginal guys on it, like most clubs, and those will get moved out based on upgrades we sign and on positional needs. I'm looking forward to seeing how the twins dip into the FA market and the trade market. there could be a lot of action for us at the Winter Meetings. Step 1: get a new manager. Step 2: finalize the coaching staff Step 3: start re-working the roster at the Winter Meetings Step 4: arbitration stuff Step 5: finalize the roster We just finished Step 1?
  23. jmlease1
    Well, at the right price and in the right role Mauer still has value for this team (and many others). But at this point any statements about Mauer are mostly PR. Joe isn't likely going to make any decisions about playing based on whether the manager starts praising him. It's a smart play out the gate to be respectful of Mauer...and who knows? Maybe when he says he wants him on the team, he could might want him to join the coaching staff. So far Rocco has shown himself to be pretty savvy at working the media. Gotta say, I loved the way he handled Ruesse!
  24. jmlease1
    I'm baffled by the inconsistencies in this argument. the FO are automatons, but they're running a "chicken soup for the soul" franchise? You're mad about the decision to fire Molitor, but you don't hold it against the new guy, but you won't go to a twins game again unless Molitor gets hired to manage by someone else?
  25. jmlease1
    Seems fine. I doubt there's a managerial candidate out there that would make me go, "Wow, this is a huge win! We are KILLING it in the managerial search!" But Rocco seems like a reasonable choice. Should be on board with the front office's approach, should be able to relate with and work with young players. Hopefully he can handle the tactical situations well and improve bullpen and lineup useage.
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