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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Considering how often the ump was giving Eflin K's 2-4 inches off the plate, I can't exactly blame any of the Twins for swinging more at stuff inside and outside the plate. Justin Morneau was getting so annoyed those strike calls that even Dick Bremer noticed, and Dick usually doesn't comment on umpiring.
  2. jmlease1
    I'm not going to claim that Rortvedt should rank above Jeffers, but it feels like based on age and level performance they're not all that far apart as prospects, albeit for some differing reasons. Beyond that, developing quality catchers that can actually use the bat effectively sure seems to be a challenge for MLB, so if Rortvedt really has taken a leap forward with his hitting there's a ton of value there. but I freely admit I'm on Team Rortvedt. I'm concerned about Blankenhorn. It's hard not to think of his season last year as a disappointment; Arraez has clearly passed him at this point and we simply didn't see much of that power potential in Ft. Myers. Maybe he and Lewin Diaz just hit that FSL wall we've come to expect and Alex Kirilloff is an even bigger outlier? Strong "next wave" of talent clustered at Ft. Myers right now, which is a place where I feel like we really start to winnow out who are actually going to be real prospects vs JAGs. Should be an interesting season.
  3. jmlease1
    I seriously disagree with leaving Rortvedt out of the top 20. In my mind he's at least top 15 and after last season's success at the plate in high-A deserves consideration as a top 10 prospect. He's a better receiver than Jeffers and is actually younger. I'm a little baffled by Jeffers at #6 and Rortvedt not cracking the top 20. Rortvedt deserved to be ranked, especially if someone like Blankenhorn cracks the list. (I'm not wild about Blankenhorn, who struggled to hit in Ft. Myers and didn't do well in the AFL either. Maybe repeating a level will get him back on track, but he's clearly being passed by other prospects at 2B and is starting to look like he won't hit enough to play 3B)
  4. jmlease1
    I still wonder if the recovery is hurting Gibson a little on the stamina side? I'm not going to worry about Gibson yet. But we seem to be managing just fine with 11 pitchers. Day off tomorrow, so probably the only guy not available in game 1 against Philly is Mejia? Bats are starting to get going a little too: 7 runs on 11 hits with 5 BBs? That's winning production. And boy oh boy, it's getting harder and harder to suggest that Astudillo is a fluke. Gotta love a guy who hits his way into the lineup. I appreciate Baldelli putting Kepler in CF. He's got the ability to play there and I like the positional flexibility. Good wins. Good test coming up against Philly.
  5. jmlease1
    Berrios didn't have a high pitch count, but he'd had some wobbly innings. I don't mind protecting your starters a little early while they continue to get stretched out. I'm not worried about Rogers usage yet: he's made 3 appearances in 6 days, hasn't pitched in back-to-back games...you can start worrying if he comes out of the 'pen again tonight. So far Baldelli is doing fine. He'll look even better when some of the bats heat up (Rosario, Kepler, Gonzalez, and Schoop are all off to slow starts). Cron is really looking sharp, and I was really pleased with his defense last night. Hope Kyle Gibson is recovered from the E.Coli enough to get through 5-6 innings!
  6. jmlease1
    I feel like there's good depth with upside to draw from in starting pitching. definitely some prospect potential in the INF & OF, but more in the OF (JMO). I would feel better if we had another bullpen arm besides Romero with the kind of upside to come up at some point this season and blow some guys away. Maybe Vasquez can be that guy? Not sure he has the control to survive. Maybe Duffey can get it back together? not sure he has the pitch mix to survive. Reed? The relief corps is not exactly making my socks roll up and down.
  7. jmlease1
    Hard to complain about much here. Some really good looking prospects. Love it!!
  8. jmlease1
    I'm really rooting for Rortvedt to continue developing well on offense. I'd love for him to get a mid-season promotion and stay on a good path to the majors. Looking forward to seeing how Larnach does in what's generally seen as more of a pitcher's league. He was expected to crush it in cedar rapids (IMHO); the jumps get a little harder now, but he's got the talent to succeed.
  9. jmlease1
    I think the health and performance of the back of the rotation is going to be key. If we get through the season without having to use 9-10 starters (main rotation inning eaters?) and getting enough quality from positions 3-5 in that group we could win a lot of series. Nice to see the offense break out in game 3!
  10. jmlease1
    Wow, loads of overreactions on this board. I guess that's a good sign, people care enough to massively overreact? Yeah, sucked that Blake Parker wild pitched us to a loss but weird things like that happen in freakin' March especially to pitchers when it's 39F out there. It's one outing. Maybe we can hold off on the panic until he''s blown up a few times in a row? I'm a little surprised people are already outraged that the bench hasn't been completely emptied by Game 2. Which came after an off-day. When we have 4 new regulars in the lineup anyway. And frankly, betting on Tyler Austin as a savior is going to result in a lot of disappointment. It may make sense to be more more aggressive in using ol' Willans as a PH in close & late situations because of his ability to get a bat on the ball, but I think Im ok with letting some guys play early in the season. I'm also not going to start getting on Baldelli's choices based off one game, either. I'm going to wait for a pattern to emerge to see if he's making decent choices. Holy cow. Game 2 and people are already crushing him. Bauer buried our lineup, he's a terrific pitcher. That's the story...
  11. jmlease1
    Is it really fair to say this is Pineda's first year after Tommy John, though? He did pitch (a tiny amount) last year. He's not a guy who just got back on the mound in spring training, I'd argue he's going to be further along than a lot of the guys we normally think of as "coming off TJ". Frankly, I'm more worried about his knee and other injury history than the TJ at this point. Odorizzi may be the best beneficiary of the opener strategy, and as a 4th or 5th guy I think you feel ok about him. He's certainly someone you'd have to feel fairly confident he'll be able to take the ball for 25-30 starts in the season and there's value in that. I also feel better about the options for replacements if/when guys get hurt. Gonsalves, Thorpe, Stewart, Littell are all guys who could break through this season and give you internal options if Gibson needs more time to get back into game shape after the nasty illness or Pineda can't stay healthy, etc. None of them are sure things, but there's better depth options for the starters than we've seen.
  12. jmlease1
    It was a good signing. Hopefully it pays out, but it was definitely worth the (relatively small) risk. Good to see that Cruz seems capable of playing OF enough to stay in the lineup in interleague play as needed, but it seems unlikely we'll see him out there outside of interleague play IMHO.
  13. jmlease1
    I would tend to agree with you on the "#1 starter" definition, but I'm less enthusiastic about the "ace" definition. That one would end up being pretty elastic, I think and stretch out to more than the dozen you're thinking about in your head. Example: I think a lot of Twins fans would be very comfortable with Berrios starting Game 1 of a playoff series, but aren't ready to call him an "ace". Berrios is a guy that I think many if not most teams would look at as a #1 starter, even if their scouting department would call him a #2. (one thing I learned from The Ringer's series on scouting was that most scouts don't project to the extremes and won't go out on a limb to put someone into more elite territory) Is he one in Boston or Cleveland or Houston? Not on their staffs, but what about New York? or Oakland or the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Southern California Disneyland? Regardless, the Twins are getting into much better position with their starters and getting closer to having a staff that can perform not only over the long haul of a season but in a short series. Berrios is terrific and will leave people drooling for years with that curve.
  14. jmlease1
    Nick, how do you define an "ace"? And is it the same definition as a #1? I kinda feel like these are different things, yet they get conflated often, and both have pretty muddled definitions. I don't think it takes much improvement to think of Berrios as an "ace" or be a fit for the #1 slot for a contender. He finished just outside the top 10 last year in pitching bWAR and was at least as good as anyone Oakland ran out there last season and isn't far off of Severino for the Yankees. Berrios improved in a lot of areas last season and it wasn't a fluky year. Are you only an "ace" if you're in the top 5 for Cy Young every year? Is that the same definition for a #1? (I think for the former it's not unreasonable, I think for the latter it means very few teams have a #1 starter and becomes silly). Boston, Houston, and Cleveland have had top-end depth in addition to talent; each had 2+ pitchers in the top 10 for bWAR which makes them so dangerous. It's why if the Twins added pitching in the offseason I wanted someone who was at least as good as, preferably better than Kyle Gibson (who was awfully good last year, despite my constant skepticism that he could sustain it. I was wrong...last year.) Twins would be helped if either Berrios or Gibson to take another small step forward, especially for when they get to the short series end of it, but getting consistent positive performance from slots 3-5 might be even more important. Odorizzi was our 3rd best starter last season and seems to be best suited as a 4-5 guy. We patched together a LOT of starts from guys who weren't ready or able (either from inexperience or injury).
  15. jmlease1
    I think there are also increasing numbers of teams who don't want to fill their DH slot with a guy who can't play in the field if they don't have to, so that probably reduced his market a little as well, along with the fears of aging, price tag, etc. But production still speaks, and there's no reason to think Cruz can't be an excellent DH for this team this year and possibly next year as well. And with his clubhouse reputation, he should be a benefit to a relatively young team in other ways as well. There's plenty of franchise depth for this spot: Sano could move in there easily, Austin is a good fit if the team finds a way to keep him around, Cron could shift in if they decide they don't like his defense but he keeps on hitting, Rooker might be ready for extended MLB time soon...lots of options. I think if Cruz hits over 30 hrs and puts up another OPS of .850 or so, he'll be back for another run. It'd be hard to complain about that.
  16. jmlease1
    I think Kepler can play any spot in the OF defensively. Nelson Cruz isn't going to DH forever, and having a player who can also play 1B or OF in that slot as your primary guy isn't bad (maybe it's Rooker). And there's also no reason why you can't trade a guy, you just have to hope you trade the right one and get appropriate value for them.
  17. jmlease1
    well, closer than the ridiculous 3 years $30M speculated. I'm almost certain that he's looking for an AAV of at least $17M and probably closer to $20M. The bigger issue may be that he's holding out for a 4-5 year deal on top of it. Of course the Twins would sign him at 3/$30M. I think the Twins would sign him at 3/$50M. I think he's trying to get a 4th year minimum and everyone is balking because they think his shoulder might fall off in year 2 or 3.
  18. jmlease1
    Incorrect. Sano was excellent the first half of 2017, a very deserving all-star. he struggled in the 2nd half and got hurt.
  19. jmlease1
    Probably because Molitor believed in starters playing a specific position and bench guys being the ones who moved around the diamond.
  20. jmlease1
    I love this. If we had dealt him after his rookie season (when he crushed it, with 18 HRs in 80 games) we would have been dumping a player with all-star qualities that was fully under team control who played a position of need. (who else did we have for 3B?) Were we supposed to dump him in 2017? He was a deserving all-star and looked like a franchise cornerstone the first half of the season...were we supposed to dump him in the middle of a pennant race? That would have gone over well. Were we supposed to deal him after the seaosn when he was rehabbing and his stock was down? We certainly weren't going to get real value for him last year at any time or in this past off-season, so please: tell me exactly when we should have traded Sano? You sound exactly like the sort of fan that wants us to drop 6 years/$180M on Dallas Kuechel and then will crush the FO if he doesn't win the Cy Young every year.
  21. jmlease1
    I sure am glad we signed Marwin Gonzalez! Our 3B depth is not great, so having Marwin available to step in is a BFD. And I agree, this does open the door for Astudillo! Why the heck not. Hell, this would mean we can use garver as a PH or DH if needed on days when he's not catching without anyone freaking out! I hope Sano heals fast and completely. It's a shame this happened to him, because it seemed like he had done a lot to be ready this season. foot injuries are freakin' weird, man. Friend of mine broken his foot walking across his yard when he hardly even stumbled. rebroke it almost 3 months into the healing process when he slipped a little on some sand. Both total freak accidents.
  22. jmlease1
    ah, 2006. Man, those years between Corey Koskie and Trevor Plouffe at 3B were a little rough, huh? And why has this franchise had so many crappy DHs?!? That team had the pitching to win a title if Liriano doesn't get hurt, but did they have enough offense? We were still relying on Rondell White (who somehow actually hit in the playoffs, just not in the season), Jason Tyner, the corpse of Phil Nevin...
  23. jmlease1
    3B is definitely the position I think is the weakest for the Twins system-wide. Just not a lot of depth there, and certainly no one that projects to be a high flyer down in the low minors with any confidence; it's hard to get enthusiastic about Severino being the future there when he's never played it. Maybe Miranda? But the jump from A to AA can really weed out a lot of guys that look hopeful. We're in pretty good shape for the MLB club for the next couple of years, especially with Marwin in the fold; he's a fine 3B and a fantastic insurance policy against Sano crapping out. I'd be interested to see what Astudillo can do here; haven't seen enough to get a feel for where his defense really is, and we've seen a lot of guys struggle defensively at 3B who later became more than solid (Trevor Plouffe and Corey Koskie both looked shaky early before having some nice defensive seasons).
  24. jmlease1
    Because Gonzalez isn't really replacing those hitters, he's replacing the guy who would be replacing those hitters when they get a day off or get dinged up. Kepler played 156 games last season, Rosario 138, 3rd on the team was Robbie effin' Grossman at 129. Ryan LaMarre, Gregorio Petit, and Johnny Field played 100 games between them. If Schoop turns out to be a .230 hitter, I'm sure Gonzalez will start getting more and more of his ABs, but if Schoop bounces back and has a season like he did 2015-2017 then he's a solid starter. I'm not expecting the 5 bWAR from 2017, but 2.5+ is very achievable. And he's been a fine defender over the years, at least as good as Dozier.
  25. jmlease1
    I'm a little surprised to see Kirilloff already be suggested as the long-term solution at 1B; from what I've been reading (particularly here at TD) he grades out to be a solid if unspectacular corner OF with a capable arm and good overall athleticism. And unless Kepler starts hitting a lot more, you lose so much value bumping him all the way down to 1B; you're better off trading him at that point, aren't you? Rooker seems like he's one of the better options for a longer term solution, assuming Cron doesn't step up and become a serious contender. And I think it's a mistake to write Cron off: He's had 4 seasons as a (mostly) regular. 2016 & 2018 he was a quality starter, 2015 & 2017 he was just a guy. But in the 2nd half of 2017 he raked, and had a very solid 2018, so it's not unreasonable to think that last year's performance is repeatable and if that's who CJ Cron is I think we're going to be awfully happy and not worrying too much about Tyler Austin. Regardless we'll get more pop and less D with fewer BBs out of 1B this year at a significantly lower price. Dan Barreiro will be thrilled as long as whomever he is gets RBIs and swings at more pitches with runners on base.
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