jmlease1

Gibson is a pretty complicated case because his track record isn't entirely indicative of who he is right now as a pitcher. He made a substantial change to his approach a couple years ago and it had really good results for him. He was giving up fewer hits, getting more Ks and still kept the ball in the park at a respectable rate. Last season he went out there every 5th day or so, but clearly wasn't fully healthy and there's no doubt the ulcerative colitis (combined with the offseason illness) really impacted him. Despite that, he was a pretty solid pitcher in the first half. the peripherals for those first 3 months or so look pretty solid. I'd love to have a healthy Kyle Gibson back as a 4th or 5th guy on a cheap deal. But I don't think he's going to be available for a cheap deal, and I don't know if he's going to be healthy. I certainly don't want him on a multi-year pact right now. 1 year, $6-8M? I'd probably take the flyer on him getting healthy and pitching in the 4 or 5 spot in the rotation. $10-12M? I think someone else can give him that deal and we can find his performance elsewhere. I like the guy, and respect the way he a) overhauled his entire approach to starting, and stepped up and took the ball every 5th day last season. He's got talent and can get guys out. But I don't think there's going to be a match here any longer, because the risk factors coupled with salary is going to be too high.

I would pick Garver off this list too, just because he had a Bonds-ian HR rate. I think he'll have a fine year as the primary catcher, but he literally was at 1 HR every 10 ABs. Expecting that to continue is unrealistic. Second choice is Arraez, because the BABIP was really high, sophomore slumps are real (especially as sophisticate teams get god tape on players at the MLB level), but I don't expect him to fall off the table. He's got great control of the strike zone and the fact that he doesn't expand the zone to hack at everything (even though he can get the bat on almost anything he wants) will serve him well. The bigger question will be his power potential; it's never been an area of strength for him and he was nearly at career highs in SLG% this year. It wouldn't take a big dropoff for him to show real regression, but I do like his future. I think Kepler and Sano are the least likely to regress, and could still take another step forward. Kepler wasn't hitting a bunch of cheap ones and still has room to refine his approach to rip some more line drives that could increase that low BABIP. Sano had a really rough stretch that dragged his total down and any dip in his SLG% could be matched by more selectivity at the plate. We'll see, but he's a legit slugger who could hit 50 HRs if he stays healthy. It's important to remember that with any projection system, they're almost always going to project a regression to the mean. It's really hard to predict who took a sustainable leap forward vs who had a fluke year. but every player on this list is young enough that their production could be sustainable. Garver & Kepler are the vets who never showed this before, but Polanco and Sano have. Arraez is a rookie, so anyone who absolutely knows about him needs to either be in Vegas or working in the FO...

I think smeltzer could be an effective bullpen piece, or as a 1-2 inning "opener". Which could be really useful! If odorizzi is back and struggles to get out of the 6th, maybe Smeltzer becomes his partner in games: Odo does 1-5, Smeltzer does 6-7, May/Duffy/Romo (who i still kinda want back)/Rogers combo finishes off 8-9. Instead of a long man that only gets used in blowouts, you've got 1-2 guys who you plan for them to go 2 innings when they get in the game, regardless of matchups. so maybe your pitching staff is set up more like this: 5 starters, 2 bridge guys, 5 for late & close. Your bridge guys never pitch on back to back days, but their expectation is that they're going to come in and give you 2 innings. maybe you still need that 13th pitcher based on your staff, but it's a bridge guy. I may be a crazy person, I admit it freely.

Look, I like Rosario but there simply no way you can look at his numbers as being "MVP candidate numbers". Mike Trout had 1/3 more HR in roughly the same amount of games with nearly 140 additional points in OBP and nearly 150 pts in SLG%. (while playing far superior defense at a much tougher position) That's an MVP season...and there's decent odds he loses out this year to Bregman. Rosario wasn't even one of the top three hitters on his own team this year, even taking defense completely out of it. He's a useful player, has at times been a good player, and the totality of his contributions (including staying healthy, which is a valuable skill) have been good for the Twins but there's simply no way he's an MVP candidate.

I think this is right. While I think Kirilloff is a better player than the options in AAA and will surpass them all, it doesn't mean that he's ready for MLB pitching. He won't be the first guy that gets a look for an injury replacement, but I think he does hit his way on to the roster at some point in 2020. I'm not worried about the drop in power; that was clearly related to the wrist injury and he should be fine after a winter to recover fully from the season. he looked great down the stretch again and the only real concern is that he might need to be a bit more patient at the plate. I'd prefer to see his OBP sitting in the .380 range or higher, but he's shown decent enough patience and you can't fault a kid for an aggressive approach when he's hit .362 before! I'm not looking to give Eddie Rosario the bum's rush out of town, but I feel a lot better about our ability to replace him in the lineup with a player like Kirilloff waiting in the wings. I like the fact that he can hit for a high average, keep the Ks reasonable, and still hit for power. Potentially a very dangerous bat with runners on base. I'm pegging him to get an audition in 2020 and get penciled in to start in 2021, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit is way onto the club and then refuse to let go (a la Luis Arraez).

The problem with Rosario is his defense just doesn't look like it's going to be very good going forward (two of the last three years his defensive runs saved/total zone rating metrics have put his dWAR into the tank) and with his plate discipline collapsing again he's become a decent player, not a cornerstone. If he could add one more BB per week and get his defense back to par, sure he's a plus starter. But the odds of his defense improving with his speed declining aren't great and he's had more years where he's a pure hacker at the plate than not. He's not a replacement level player, but he was a below average starter and there's legitimate reason to be concerned he's trending in the wrong direction. Much as I think relievers can be pretty fungible from year to year, Taylor Rogers is right in his prime. He looks like a perfect candidate to one of those old school "buy out the arbitration years for cost certainty" deals and maybe tack on one extra year. Rogers gets security and doesn't have to go through arbitration, the Twins get cost certainty and don't have to go through arbitration (and maybe another year of team control) and everyone is happy. I'd try for an extension with Sano; even if he can't stick at 3B long term, there's no question that he can play there for at least the next couple of seasons; 1B could be open by then, DH will almost certainly be open after Cruz's contract ends and his power absolutely plays. Yes, there are going to be big K stretches, but come one: the power plays. Sano isn't a juiced ball guy, he hits moonshots. He will get the walks, there's plenty of value there and the injury at the start of the season was a fluky thing. Yes, I want him extended; he might hit 50 dingers next year. Buxton...oh, Byron Buxton. Tough one. I love the guy, his D is amazing and it looked like he was figuring some things out at the plate. The health is a HUGE concern. I suspect he won't go for an extension because he'd be buying low on himself and I don't think his representation would advise it or he would accept it. It's worth exploring, but I don't see him accepting a deal that's based on his actual performance and with his health concerns and lack of MLB track record as a hitter, so I don't see an agreement. Berrios: absolutely extend him. He's a #1 starter in my mind (are there 20 starters out there you'd take over Jose Berrios?) and is a terrific anchor for the rotation. He makes his starts, he eats up innings, he gets Ks and is a tough pitcher. I want him in the rotation for the next 5 years minimum. Hopefully they can get it done, but he seems awfully willing to bet on himself.

Agreed on Jax; if you want to keep him you have to add him; he's definitely a guy who could pitch some middle relief for a crap team, or spot start. Duran is an easy call. Chalmers...man, I don't know. There's some interesting upside there, but his control is still rough. I feel like he's a guy who might get claimed but would end up being returned once a team realizes that they can't really send him out to mop up and he's not developing sitting on the back of the bench. But if he's claimed, does that screw up his development path so badly you might not even be able to get him straightened out? I think he might slide through, but the team seems high on him so maybe they don't want to take the risk. Raley and Blankenhorn are worth adding; both could contribute as soon as next season, there's at least some positional flexibility there...I think these are guys you want in your system for depth or trade at worst. Celestino...there's talent there, but there's no way he's ready to hit in the majors. Would a team claim him to sit as a defensive replacement all year? Seems unlikely to me. He's barely had a cup of coffee in high A. Kepler was a much higher rated prospect at the time, but the Twins also had a lot more chum on their 40-man, too. I think he slides through and isn't protected. Javier is the really tough call, I think. There's still so much potential, but he's still a looooong way away. I like the kid, but 40-man spots do have value. With more teams tanking and having the 26th slot could a team grab him and just stash him for the season? It's probably more likely now than it was 5 years ago, so i think he might get a spot. I think this is the hardest call of any of them.

It's true that 2013 is looking like a down year (although players like Tim Anderson and Hunter Dozier are certainly going to be adding value to their clubs for the next few years); only Aaron Judge has really emerged as a great player. 2014 is definitely looking much more productive already...but it doesn't change the fact that the Twins had a top 5 pick bust. But your math is a little arbitrary. here's what round 1 looked like post twins pick for bWAR in 2019 and career-wise for players with 2+ bWAR: Austin Meadows (3.8 in 2019, 3.6 career), Hunter Renfroe (2.6 & 6.2), Tim Anderson (4.0 & 10.2), Marco Gonzalez (3.2 & 5.4), Aaron Judge (5.4 & 18.6), Sean Manaea (1.4 & 8.7), Michael Lorenzen (2.0 & 4.4), Corey Knebel (0.3 & 4.3) Which doesn't even include Hunter Dozier, who was 2.1 bWAR in 2019 after a rough 2018. but Kohl Stewart was the start of a stretch that hasn't gone so great for the twins in drafts: Stewart, Nick Gordon (jury still out, looks like an MLB player to me in the next year either with the twins or elsewhere) and Tyler Jay (out of baseball). Two out of three years busting on your first round pick when all three of them fell between 4-6 is rough on an organization.

I like Hamels in that scenario. I do not like Hamels on a 3 year deal. I'm not sure I like Hamels on a guaranteed 2 year deal, with the velocity dipping and his distinct slide in the second half. I think you'd have to get serious about NBA-style "load management" with him to make sure he's effective come fall.

I was surprised at Gonsalves getting dropped, but the more I think about it, the less surprised I am. 2019 was a lost year and there were some really worrisome indicators in 2018, despite some good results. The jump in BBs in 2018 was a bad sign and his loss of control exploded when he got a taste in MLB. If the velocity is down, coming back off an injury year, at age 25 (not 26), with control problems, and the elbow is where the problem is...he's not looking like a great bet. He's looking like a AAAA player whose chance to be more is getting wiped out by injury. I held out a lot of hope on Kohl Stewart; I thought with his ability to keep the ball in the park and avoid hard contact, he might be a useful back of the rotation guy, but he just couldn't finish off batters. I still think there's room in this league for guys who don't rack up huge K totals, but you have to be able to get some, and Stewart just doesn't get enough. The other thing is, if you're going to give up contact you can't also hand out the free passes. It's too many base runners to survive, even if you can get a bunch of DPs. The WHIP for Stewart tells the story, i think; he never got it under 1.3 in any level past A-ball. he's a bust and another red flag on the dangers of taking a HS pitcher too high. I'm a big no on Perez coming back. Teams figured out the cutter once they got enough tape on it, and while the ability to throw a bunch of innings is in fact a skill, the twins should aim higher, even for a LH specialist, because for as good as he was against lefties, he got smoked against righties and I don't want to waste a spot on a LOOGY

Smart move by the Twins. $18M is a bit of an overpay for Odorizzi, but it's worth the premium for the 1 year deal if he accepts. I would prefer a 3 year deal with him at a lower AAV (3/$45?) but that might not be realistic. It might take a 4th year to induce him to sign a multi-year deal, or he might insist on a higher AAV. Regardless, this fills a spot in the rotation with a quality starter. If Jake Odorizzi is our #3 starter going into the season, that's not bad at all.

he takes walks and he's cheap. Can play both corner OF spots at need, DH, and can hit in any spot in the order without complaint. I wouldn't want to start a Grossman, but there have been years where we sure could have used him as a 4th OF. The upside is limited, but the floor is pretty good. I agree with Seth; you don't deal rosario just to deal him, especially because it risks your depth if Rooker/Kirilloff/Larnach isn't ready to seize the opportunity. Wade & Cave are decent enough players...who are best suited to be 4th OFs, I think. We don't know for sure how much wade can really hit in MLB and if he can't he won't be as effective drawing walks. Cave looks like he might be better than Rosario with his more patient approach, but he also might get exposed with more ABs. I think there might be some good partners out there, but I'm not exactly in "trade him now" mode. Unless we add another guy to the roster who seems like he might be a little crazy. You only should have 1 of those.

Archer is not going to move the needle that much on the rotation. His value is in chewing up innings while giving you a chance to win, but he's never been dominant. He's really only had one really good season (2015) and has gotten progressively worse every year since. he's a full year older than odorizzi, but in their 8 years in MLB they've been almost exactly as valuable. Archer pitches more innings, odorizzi is more effective in the innings he pitches. I think you have to look at someone like Archer as a pitcher who likely shores up the back end as a 4th starter and you're putting a lot of faith that Wes Johnson can work some magic with him to get more than that. The contract is fine, but are you going to get better results than what you might from an internal option? Gray has better odds of improving the high-end of the rotation, but I suspect he's due for some regression this year. Remember that while he's put up two 5+ bWAR seasons in the last 5 years, he also put up seasons of -0.3 and 0.6 bWAR in that same span (the 3rd season is right in the middle at 2.6 bWAR). Gray is very interesting but there's a lot of risk there, especially for the likely price. I'm very interested in making a deal for Archer if we can sign or otherwise acquire a high-end starter, because i think his floor is still pretty high, he could bounce back and spin a nice year, and we'd be buying low. I think Gray's price tag will be too high for the risk of crapping out. Kershaw and Paddock seem unlikely to be real options, IMHO (but fun to consider for this kind of exercise!)

Cron is a solid player. He played through injury this year and it absolutely harmed his offense, but who knows: it may have harmed his defense too. I'm more than happy to bring him back for another run, and if he wants to bet on himself with a 1-year deal I'd be open to it. The difference between paying him $5M this year and $7m next year isn't all that significant to our payroll and if he put up 2+ bWAR it's a worthy signing. Part of what made this team go this year was raising the floor: fewer bad players in any role is really important. We could hand the job to Sano, but there's risk in putting a less experienced 1B out there. He's probably not going to be as strong at scooping throws in the dirt. Marwin probably has to drop in as the everyday 3B, which reduces some flexibility. we could drop Rooker in at 1B, but he could easily underperform Cron's output, especially as a rookie adjusting to MLB pitching. Marwin's solid there defensively, but is below average offensively at 1B and again we lose his flexibility. La Tortuga? Yeah...no. Sorry. I love the dude, but he's not a great player and he's not an every day player they way he flails at anything. Cron is solid even with a repeat of last year and there's something to be said for certainty.

I'll take that bet. Absent a career-ending injury in like spring training, Nick Gordon will make it to the majors. I don't know if he'll be good, great, or a bust but I'm pretty damn certain Nick Gordon plays in MLB. Frankly, he's very likely to play this season. If not for the untimely injury last season, he probably would have played for us last season in MLB.

I still like Nick Gordon. It was a tough break for him the injuries this year, because he was playing well and now Arraez has jumped past him on the charts. he's still a guy who has real value and while I'm not opposed to trading him, I don't think this is the offseason to do it, because I expect us to get low-balled on him from everyone. If you love Arraez, you shouldn't hate on Gordon. At age 21 in AA, who hit better? It was actually Gordon. Who hit better at age 22 in AA? Again...it was Gordon. Gordon has more pop in his bat, Arraez has the advantage of never having had a down year adjusting to a level and didn't get injured at the wrong time. Neither are defensive stalwarts. Both are going to hit for average. Arraez is a bit younger. I'd much rather have Gordon on the roster as the possible replacement for Adrianza or as the first call up from AAA for a middle infielder in case of injury then getting an underwhelming return as a throw-in. His player profile has real value, but I think his perceived value around the league is disastrously low and I'm not ok with the concept of "eh, Arraez has passed him so let's move on for whatever bag of balls someone wants to give us".

I'm not sure Raley was really ever ahead of Cave or Wade on the promotion list, especially when we had a need for guys who can play in CF, because Raley is not someone I want patrolling out there. And Rooker was absolutely mashing it if you needed the corner OF/1B/DH guy. But Raley has some talent and might be a very useful player. I'd like for him (and Rooker) to cut down on the Ks; I'm a little worried that both are a little 3 True Outcomes right now and against MLB pitching will be K machines. Perfect choice to send to the AFL after the ankle injury cost him so much time, and hopefully this will help him be positioned to compete in spring training. Regardless of what happens with Rosario, there's room on the roster for another OF, whether it's Cave, Wade, Raley, or Rooker. And as long as Buxton and Kepler are healthy (argh!) it doesn't have to be a guy who plays CF, so why not Raley?

I think part of it was that in addition to his lack of power there's been some (reasonable) concerns about his defense. It's an area that he need to keep working on. but beyond that, he's a young guy who rose very quickly with limited experience. He had a really nice 2016 season at age 19 in Low-A, but basically didn't play for the twins in 2017 (3 games at Ft. Myers). 2018 he did well enough at Ft. Myers to earn a mid-season promotion, but showed a real power deficit in 1/2 a season at AA. Then he made a fast jump from AA to MLB at age 22. The missing season is probably the biggest reason he wasn't on as many people's radar, and then suddenly he's in MLB tearing the cover off the ball. I'm thrilled with his progress and there's no question he's the starting 2B next season. His approach means he should continue to have success getting on base and hitting for a high average, both very useful skills. But let's remember, the August version of Arraez (which is probably what a lot of people thought he might be after 2018) is just kind of another guy. While everyone has a slump or three, we need July or Sept Aaraez for him to be a real force in the lineup.

Ha! I love RT.

I'm always a little leery of starting pitchers going from the NL to the AL these days, especially for a guy that's not a dominating player. That said, Musgrove might be the guy that interests me most: That FIP suggests he was a little unlucky last year, and maybe with Wes Johnson adding a tick or two to the fastball the K/9 jumps up a notch as well. He's going to need some kind of adjustment to really be a quality starter, but there are some things that make him an interesting option. In this homer-happy environment his ability to keep the ball in the park is intriguing. But you would have to think Wes could make some adjustments to improve performance, because he's also never had a positive ERA+ Gray...probably contingent on how much you think getting out of Coors Field for half the season will help him. His career splits suggest it won't necessarily matter that much: he's basically been the same pitcher home or away, so you're relying on an assumption that the secondary impacts of pitching way up there consistently impact performance everywhere. He's had some good seasons, but control is a bit of a problem. Ray gets a ton of Ks and is tough to hit, but man that's a lot of walks! 2017 feels a bit like a fluke year, and I dunno how much I want to give up for 216 or 2019 Robbie Ray? Boyd feels like a waste of time, because I just don't see Detroit dealing him within the division without a substantial premium that I just don't have any interest in paying.

Cole is obviously the preferred target, but I'd be fine in going all in on Strasburg too. Both are going to be very expensive, AAV of at least $30M. Strasburg actually made $38M this year; you have to wonder if he'll be one of those guys who refuses to take less in AAV in his next contract than his last year of pay? I'm sure Boras' opening bid will be $40M AAV with at least 5 years on the contract. I dunno about Bumgarner. Durable but will he ever be elite again? (and how elite was he ever?) Interesting stat on him: his ERA and FIP were exactly the same. I wouldn't want him at anywhere near the price I'd pay for Cole or Strasburg; it's been several years since he was a better pitcher than Berrios to put him in context. Wheeler is definitely the guy I'd want out of the next tier. He's younger and his problem previously was control; the BB/9 the last two years suggests he's figured that out and should be a consistent solid pitcher. He'd be a great replacement for Gibson. 3rd tier isn't a group I have a lot of enthusiasm for. Wood might be an interesting reclamation project, but Quintana looks like a pitcher heading into decline. FIP suggests he was unlucky, but I think I'd rather have Pineda back (after suspension) than any of these guys. Ideally, we'd run out a rotation of: Cole Berrios Odorizzi Wheeler Thorpe/Graterol/Stewart/Smeltzer/Gonsalves More likely scenario: Berrios Odorizzi Wheeler Wood/Pineda Thorpe/Graterol/Stewart/Smeltzer/Gonsalves

Because he was a replacement-level player this year, while dealing with an e.Coli infection and ulcerative colitis? I think your "litmus test" is a terrible one to judge this franchise on. If the FO is convinced they can get the 2018 version of Kyle Gibson next year, then he's a significant asset on the roster, depending on the price. He put up a 3.8 bWAR and 118 ERA+ while chewing up almost 200 innings and averaging over 6 IP per start. If that guy is your #3 or #4 starter, you're in fantastic shape. And if Gibson can be had at an AAV of say under $12M and your staff thinks he's going to be that pitcher, it's a good move and hardly a failed offseason because he's back on the roster. If he's available a week before spring training and wants to do a 1 year "prove it" deal and the team thinks he's healthy, not bringing him for an arbitrary reason like that is franchise malpractice. It's fair to say, "I don't think Kyle Gibson can replicate 2018." or "I don't think he's going to be worth the money on a long term deal." but isn't it just silly to say (in Oct) "The offseason is a failure if Kyle Gibson is on the roster in 2020"? It's not like this is a pitcher who's never had success in MLB. Or has constantly been injured. or is somehow a major tool/clubhouse cancer. He's had multiple quality seasons. I used to call him The Tease, because it never seemed like he was going to put it together consistently. Then he did it for 2018. Changed his approach, got more Ks, had more success and did have that consistency. There's real risk with him. But there's also success and value to be had there if things break his way. I value Odorizzi higher because he's had a stronger track record overall, is 2 years younger, and looks well positioned to have continued success in his more limited innings. But Gibson, if fully healthy, is probably a decent bet to have a successful season. (keep in mind Gibson's fWAR in 2019 was actually the same as his fWAR in 2018; personally I consider bWAR a better representation of what a pitcher actually did in any given season but fWAR is considered by many a better predictor of future success...)

Challenging group, lots of reasonable opinions on either side for a lot of these guys. C Jason Castro: I'd like him back, but I think he gets offered a longer term deal elsewhere (2+an option, or even straight 3 year) and the Twins probably shouldn't go there with Garver stepping forward. If he's interested in a 1 year deal or 1+1, I'd do it. 1B C.J. Cron: I liked bringing him in last season and wouldn't mind him coming back, but I think the team moves on. Rooker may be ready to take on the job and there are other in-house options (Marwin can play there, allowing you to carry another OF, Sano can play there as way to get Marwin time at 3B or Adrianza in the lineup) so I think they look at the salary & the production and move along. I'm ok with that. 2B Jonathan Schoop: Did fine this year and was a very smart signing, but Arraez took this job by the throat, and Nick Gordon is waiting in the wings for depth. He moves on, everyone agrees. SP Kyle Gibson: Oh, Kyle. I was so ready to believe in you and illness just wrecked your season, even though you somehow got 29 starts. I think someone looks at his peripherals, the illness this season and take a flyer on last season being who he is and not a fluke season. They may be right. I dunno if it's the Twins or if it should be the Twins. It will be really interesting if he sits on the market for a long time. I think the longer he goes without a deal, the more likely he is to come back to MN where he's comfortable and liked. But I really can't predict the market on him SP Michael Pineda: I'd bring him back on a 1+1 or 2 year deal, but dammit I want a bit of a discount considering he's suspended for 60 games and we already paid him to rehab. I think he's more likely to be a better pitcher than Gibson next season, but missing the first half is...not great for this team. I think you choose one or the other, not both. SP Martin Perez: Nope. The change in approach worked for a while, then people adjusted and he didn't have anywhere else to go. I don't think he's effective as a reliever (control is not good enough, stuff is not dominant enough to make up for the BBs). Nice idea, worked for a while, time to move on. SP Jake Odorizzi: Yes. I'd try for 3 years, $45-50M maybe 3 plus an option (vests if he hits certain goals, otherwise is a team option?). I'd consider going as high as $18M AAV and I'd make the QO. I don't think anyone makes a 5 year offer on him, so maybe he does the deal with the Twins for 3 years of security. If he bets on himself and does 1 year, that's ok too, only an overpay if he regresses back to 2017-18; fine value if he's the '15,'16,'19 version and 1 year doesn't hurt you. RP Sergio Romo: I'm fine with returning him; $2-3M for a reliever is ok and if it turns out he's cooked you can move on from it with minimal impact. As long as his knee isn't going to explode off his leg, he can probably keep flipping that 82 mph slider at hitters until he's 50. But it would be nice to have another reliable lefty in the 'pen so bringing Romo back feels more like a roster issue than a cost or effectiveness one.

The surprise would have been if they didn't exercise the option, which would have been an Anthony Carter-esque contract blunder. (the basketball player, that is) I'd make Odorizzi the QO. Yes, $18M is more than I'd want to pay him (the projected QO), but I'd consider the jump on a 1-year deal and use as leverage to getting a 3 year deal that's better for both sides. We'll see. I think he's probably back next year. Cron...tough call. He's a better player than his performance this year (the thumb injury clearly messed him up), but it's hard to get excited about dropping more $ on 1B when we have other guys in MLB who can play there and some promising minor league prospects that likely could replicate the production (or better) at a fraction of the cost. But dang, I love having the boomstick back for another go!

I'd love to see some evidence on this one. yes, he may want a 5 year deal, but there's little in recent market trends to suggest that he's going to get it, especially after having a bit of a fade in the middle of the year and showing that he's not a guy who can pitch deep into games. I like the guy and support re-signing him, but going into his Age 30 Season he's never thrown 200 innings, and cleared 175 IP exactly once. He's due for a very nice raise this offseason, but $20M per? 5 years? It seems unlikely that's coming for the guy who was just dealt for Jermaine palacios. I'd be stunned if the AAV went over $17M