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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    The Pensacola roster is just stacked right now. 8 of our Top 20 prospects are playing there right now, including the top 4? That's one heck of a wave coming. It's going to be really interesting watching the FO try to figure out the OF/1B spots for the next several years: who they bet on could really change things for this franchise. Will they flip one or more of them for pitching? Will they move on from a veteran already in MLB to free up a spot?
  2. jmlease1
    So your issue is how sportsmanship is enforced in baseball? Do you agree with the unwritten rule that you don't swing at a 3-0 pitch late in a blowout? And do you believe that's an appropriate display of sportsmanship? I'm honestly curious what people think on some of this.
  3. jmlease1
    Yep. The pitcher is kind of a dumbass here, because you can't demand fidelity to unwritten rules if you ignore them yourself and the whole "hat tip" apology is one of the oldest ones out there. And of course, traditionally when enforcing an unwritten rule against a teammate of the rule-breaker the pitcher never would throw their best fastball, nor would it ever get near the head. Nor do you wait multiple pitches to do it...are we sure this pitcher doesn't just suck?
  4. jmlease1
    As noted in the game thread, this unwritten rule is derived from a bunch of highly competitive professionals who do this over the course of six month and in many cases have to play each other again the next day/week/month. It's a little professional courtesy of "don't pile on when the game is out of reach" combined with "let's all get through this one without anyone getting hurt". And in baseball (as with many sports), the players/managers have assumed the duty of enforcing these unwritten rules on the field (and one of the reasons for that was so that things stayed on the field). If you think this is all stupid, you are entitled to your opinion. As with all unwritten rules, they do tend to evolve and change over the years (and new ones will be created) as player's attitudes about the game change. For example, players fraternizing with each other from different teams used to be a non-starter (and at one point crossed from unwritten rule to written rule) and it's completely gone away. Attitudes towards sportsmanship in this country are changing and evolving and that impacts how people perceive this. there are people who think the concept of sportsmanship is entirely outdated as it applies to professional athletics, because of the professional nature of the game. YMMV on whether that's true or not, or good or not. There are others who look at baseball's traditions as a way to preserve a cherished view of the past, where the things they liked about baseball's "glory years" are celebrated, including things like unwritten rules, while other aspects are ignored or discarded (racism, drug use, etc.). I will say some of the comps people have been providing from other sports are a little silly: being up by 8 in the 9th is NOT the equivalent to being up by 10 with 2 minutes left in a basketball game...even in today's homer-happy era. Part of me likes baseball's unwritten rules because they are often a little dumb. Keeping the sport a little weirder, a little goofy and so on isn't always a bad thing.
  5. jmlease1
    Arraez just keeps on rolling, huh? The dinger may have been a surprise but it's a pleasant one: if he can be a guy who hits 8-10 HRs along with 30+ doubles and a handful of triples he's going to be a much more complete player. He doesn't need a SLG% that's over .450 to be a terrific starting 2B, but he does need to keep it over .400 IMHO. A little extra pop on those occasional HRs helps a lot. He's just become a really tough out. His BABiP is high, but not ludicrously so. The BB% is excellent for a guy who gets so many damn hits. he's doing a terrific job of controlling the strike zone: you can't strike him out often and you can't get him to chase much either. It's a really effective approach and he could be a terrific leadoff guy in the future. I'm a little worried about Polanco right now. Maybe he's taking the slump at the plate out in the field with him? He's got to get those throws ironed out, because those free outs he's yielding can really haunt you. He probably needs a day or two off, and we've got the infielders up right now to do it, so hopefully Rocco gives him a day off and some infield instruction.
  6. jmlease1
    I'm really struggling with the stats calling CJ Cron a below average 1B. Is it a range factor thing? because he's done a nice job scooping throws in the dirt (and our left side of the infield can...get a little wild out there). I've watched a lot of twins games this year and based on the eye test I would have thought he'd clock in more above average. (that's what I've been hearing from the baseball coaches I know too?) regardless, much as I like many things about this lineup, benching Marwin for Ehire is not one of them.
  7. jmlease1
    Nice day for Lewis, Kirilloff, and Larnach. Hope all three finish the year strong and healthy at AA and go into next year pushing to make the big club. (my way too early prediction: none of them make the team out of spring training, but all see time with the club in 2020, with Kirilloff hitting his way on to the team first and sticking the fastest.) I think all three are going to be in good shape if they stay healthy and can get all the AA ABs they can handle.
  8. jmlease1
    He's got to get better control of the strike zone, though. Outside of 2018 in AA, he's never put up the serious OBP numbers he's going to need to be a factor and not a AAAA player. He's had a nice power-up this year, but I'd be a little concerned that some of that is related to the new ball in AAA. He's also an older player. I'm rooting for him, but I'm not confident in his chances to be an impact player. feels like a useful minor league depth guy, I'm afraid. Rooker is younger and demonstrably better, and there are still a lot people questioning his chances, so what does that mean for Wiel?
  9. jmlease1
    Great news for Dyson to have a strong 1-2-3 inning. After his horrid, injured start hopefully this gives everyone (fans included) a little more confidence in him; I think he's going to be a really nice piece down the stretch. Romo has done a fine job since joining the team and while I don't love the HBPs, everything else looks good with him and I like adding his experience to that 'pen. If May can find some consistency and with Duffey getting on a bit of a roll (a few too many walks, but he can work around it) the bullpen should be fine again. But they could really use one more lefty in the mix, and I'm not sure we have one that makes sense. Weirdly, the thing that drove me craziest about last night's game was Polanco's error on the bunt in the 4th. Perez had plenty of time and gunned a throw that was high and outside, and Polanco was still thinking double play and clanked it. bad throw. bad catch. bad play. Just felt sloppy,
  10. jmlease1
    I think he finishes around top 5, but probably won't win it. Part of it will be playing time, but also high batting average just isn't considered sexy any longer. bWAR is less appreciative of him than fWAR; he's well behind someone like Vlad Guerrero Jr. by that measure too, not to mention Brandon Lowe who is kind of a double whammy on Arraez, since they both play 2B. That said, he's going to be a deserving candidate and is having a wonderful year. He may get a bit of a boost with the twins being in a pennant battle, especially if he keeps coming through with clutch hitting, which will get him some air time on ESPN for voters who don't see him often.
  11. jmlease1
    Celestino has been on an absolute tear for the last 6 weeks. Absolutely fantastic July, followed up with an equal great August to date. Love seeing the adjustment and the increased power in his bat. He'll be in Ft. Myers next year with an opportunity to move up quickly.
  12. jmlease1
    Max Kepler might hit 40 HRs this year. Wow. Luis Arraez continues to stake his claim for the starting 2B job, if not this year, then next year.
  13. jmlease1
    May has been struggling to hit his spots all year, and it's been immensely frustrating, because you know he's got the stuff to dominate. Frankly, I was expecting him to be the RHP partner to Taylor Rogers if he could stay healthy. Healthy hasn't been the issue, command has. nice to see him have a strong outing last night. He's got the stuff to be a weapon. Maybe Romo can help him out a little?
  14. jmlease1
    hold the phone here. Larnach was in A-ball a month ago. Graterol was on the injured list for extended time, has never pitched above AA, and just got back on the mound like a hour ago. And you want them taking on significant roles with the MLB club that's in a title hunt? Larnach looks like the real deal as a hitter, but you're ready to jump him over Rooker (who has nuked AAA) and Kirilloff (who has played solid baseball in AA and dominated A ball much more thoroughly than Larnach did) AND Cave (who can play CF, has been crushing it AAA, and only has like 100 ABs in MLB)? Gravitating to the shiny new thing is not always smart. Those kinds of moves scream panic to me. There is no reason to panic.
  15. jmlease1
    I'll admit it: I was one of those people who had concerns. I didn't have a problem with the contract extension, because with his ability to play CF his defensive value was high enough to support the deal. But I think it was perfectly fair to be concerned about whether Kepler would ever have the kind of offensive breakout people had been predicting for three years. Prior to this year, Kepler had a remarkably consistent results profile as a hitter, and it was decidedly mediocre. Low BA, solid patience, good power for CF, lower end power for a corner OF. Poor BABIP. After three years of this, it wasn't crazy to be worried that this simply might be who he was as a hitter and a player: someone whose bat plays in CF but hits below average in the corners and makes up for the lighter hitting with elite defense in the corners while being solid in CF. Fortunately for everyone involved, Kepler has taken that leap forward this year. He's really unlocked his power potential this year and it's a massive improvement. He's already hit career highs in HRs, RBIs, and WAR and will almost certainly crush his career high for 2B. Absent a signficant late slump, he's going to hit career highs in BA/OB%/SLG%, OPS, OPS+...you name it, he's crushing it. It's the breakout we've all been hoping for but many of us worried might never come. Last year Kepler took a step up in total value, but it was mostly due to defense and playing a higher value position for it. Now, he's still playing great defense and hitting close to all-star levels. I'm thrilled for him and the team. The contract extension looks brilliant now, whereas before it looked ok and required a little hope stuffed in.
  16. jmlease1
    This. bRef also defines their WAR pretty clearly: 8+ MVP, 5+ A-S, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Sub, < 0 Repl fWAR likes Cron less, but he's still not a replacement-level player. Cron has been good, not as healthy as we might like. Certainly better than Austin, who was the option a number of people really wanted. he's likely to finish somewhere north of 2 bWAR, probably just south of 1 fWAR. YMMV on which is the better measure.
  17. jmlease1
    The range of opinions on this trade are kind of fascinating. You've got people calling Romo now the 22nd best arm in our MLB bullpen and others saying he's just better than the worst option in our bullpen. You've got people calling this an overpay because of Diaz's future value and seeing little value in Villamont, while others are thinking it's good value because they see a small downgrade to Villamont and us losing Diaz in the offseason due to the 40-man crunch. I think it's a decent, but not transformative addition. Feels like Romo is a replacement for Blake Parker, someone who can hammer RH hitters, maybe step into the overrated closer role and add some veteran presence to the pen. It shouldn't be the end, but it's a good start.
  18. jmlease1
    He's still only 20, and it's not like he's been bad. I like his ability to keep the ball in the park. Still plenty of upside there. Lets see how he finishes the year. Nice to see Rortvedt have a big game at the plate; hes been scuffling a bit and needs to hit if hes going to keep climbing the ranks ahead of Jeffers.
  19. jmlease1
    The White Sox sure are the cure for what ails ya, huh? Kepler is having an excellent season, just excellent. I was ok with the contract extension because Kepler's ability to play CF gave him significant value even if his hitting never really broke out. Maybe its the baseball, maybe he's just unlocked his power stroke, but regardless of what it is he's slugging it like you expect from a guy playing RF. Now that deal looks like a steal.
  20. jmlease1
    Gordon is doing a nice job this year. I'm sure he's a little frustrated at sticking in AAA again and getting passed over by Arraez, but this has been a good bounce-back season for him. He plummeted down the rankings after a really rough stint in Rochester in 2018, but it's important to note that this was his first real hiccup in pro baseball. Dude was promoted every single year of his pro career before 2019 (sure it was a mid-year one in 2018, but he's never repeated a full year). He hit in A+, AA, and now he's hitting again in AAA. The luster has gone off him because he's no longer 19 and projectable (which often seems to be dreaming about a guy's ceiling while trying hard not to look at the floor...), he's 23 and getting close to who he is as a player. But he looks like a useful MLB player who could start in the middle infield for you. I'd be pretty comfortable moving on from Schoop and looking at Arraez/Gordon at 2B next year. Glad to see Hackimer back...do we know why he was suspended yet?
  21. jmlease1
    While there's all kinds of questions an issues about the way the FO has constructed the bullpen, there's little doubt about the way they've built the team in the field. No wasted roster spaces, and while I might pine a little for some additional on-base monsters and high average hitters, overall they've done a heck of a job. And one of those areas is in the utility group. Adrianza is hitting really well, and his ability to defend at multiple positions while continuing to hit this year is a significant asset. And it's not a fluky, high BABIP-induced, small sample size trip: this looks like just legit improvement. Gonzalez is also hitting well and providing quality defense all over (after a horrid start at the plate). It's really helpful to not have massive drop-offs when a starter gets a day off.
  22. jmlease1
    Blake Parker, before last night's implosion: July: 7 IP, No Runs (earned or otherwise), No Inherited Runners Scored (1-0), 2 holds and a win. He'd struggled a bit in June before getting it back together leading into last night's mess. But he'd been awfully effective in April/May. Maybe a little recency bias against him right now? He is who he is: an adequate veteran reliever. Since I think "closer" is a stupidly overrated position, I'd let him keep finishing games. Maybe Bremer just jinxed him, seeing as he said he'd been more effective than Rogers recently. Ryne Harper is a much bigger issue; you simply can't bring him in to a game with runners on base; his stats look better on the surface but unless he starts with a clean sheet he can't clean up anyone else's mess. That's a real issue.
  23. jmlease1
    Sure, but when you see reports of Lewis, Kirilloff, or Graterol being "off limits" it's in the context of the current trade market and who teams are making available. Teams are calling the Twins hoping they can fleece them of Lewis or something for a 2nd tier reliever and are being told those guys are off-limits based on the players involved in the conversations.
  24. jmlease1
    Sure, but that's fantasy land. The Reds aren't going to offer their best pitcher, a guy who's pitching at a Cy Young-level in MLB and is under team control for the next 5 years to anyone. We could offer Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, and Balazovic and they still would probably laugh at us, because even if those prospects have amazing value Castillo has more for their franchise because it's less risk. The pitcher the Reds might consider moving would be Sonny Gray (which would be complicated). Let's not get distracted talking about impossible trades for players who aren't on the market.
  25. jmlease1
    2019 Twins are at 187 Bombas through July 22. My goodness...
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