jmlease1

This was always going to happen. All the ChiSox prospects will be projected to improve, all of the Twins players will be projected to regress. Mysteriously, Maeda will be derided as a short-season wonder who can't actually be a Cy Young candidate/#1 pitcher and the Twins should just trade all their good players to New York for 50 cents on the dollar and start rebuilding. There will be zero love for the Twins by the pundit class this year.

Since it's a minor league contract, I think he's seen as a utility knife in the case of a LOT of injuries to the INF. There are multiple guys ahead of him on the depth charts, but the Twins are stashing him cheaply in the minors for a year in the even that Arraez, Donaldson, Polanco, AND someone like Blankenhorn are all out with injury at the same time, so rather than scramble on the FA market mid-season they have a guy in their system already that can go to work. And maybe they see something in him that they can work on with him in terms of his hitting or defense to make him more of an asset. That's the best case scenario; worst case is he's an acceptable fill-in if the infield gets really hammered with a bunch of injuries. It's depth for the depth so you aren't forced to rush in someone like Royce Lewis if you're not sure he's ready (but he's also not a guy who block Lewis if he is). This is the kind of move that I think good organizations make every year as a matter of course to cover contingencies. It's not sexy and you can't rely on these sorts of moves as the only thing the team does, but as part of the overall plan it's the kind of move that makes sense to me. Always give yourself options. Always look for ways to raise the floor and the ceiling.

I think it's a reasonable option if they can't work out a mutually acceptable deal on Cruz. Nelson Cruz is special and worth allocating a position to...not a lot of other guys that are worth that that the Twins could likely bring in. And his intangibles as a clubhouse leader play into that, and why he's maybe worth more to the Twins than to others. With Rooker, Kirilloff, and Larnach pushing for ABs, this is not a bad option. I have a fair amount of faith in the FO these days, so I think they'll be considering this seriously as they make all of their calculations.

Twitchy was a heck of a reliever, but I think his biggest problem for the Hall is the fact that he overlapped with Mariano and while I do think he reached that level during his peak, Mariano's peak was much much longer. Add that in with the fact that voters are still struggling with how to evaluate relievers as part of the Hall, I think someone with a high peak, but relatively short one as an elite reliever is going to have trouble. If Nathan had transitioned to relief in his early 20's instead of at age 28 I think his case would be much stronger. Billy Wagner is a heck of a reliever and a great comp for Nathan. Elite relievers who never got signature post-season moments, long runs, or titles and so aren't getting much consideration. I gotta say...I'd take either Wagner or Nathan over Lee Smith, who is in the Hall.

yes, he's a Hall of Famer. I suspect he won't get in on the first ballot, in part because there's still a bundle of voters that haven't been purged yet that believe in not voting for guys on the first ballot unless they meet some other undefinable characteristics for being in the "inner circle". I wish he'd gotten that deserved Gold Glove for one of his seasons at 1B; that last piece of hardware would have sealed it for some voters, especially because it's one of those things that doesn't happen, guys winning a GG at 2 different positions. But the hardware is there, the batting titles are there, the MVP & all-stars...the decline was sudden, but he was still productive at 1B. It wasn't like he stopped contributing, and the 2018 season was pretty darn good. The only thing guys like Bill Dickey or Mickey Cochrane have on Joe is rings; the only thing Gabby Hartnett has on him is longevity (and Mauer's peak was definitely higher) and all of those guys are deserving Hall of Famers. Piazza was a bigger slugger, but Mauer did everything else as well if not better, making them about equal as well. Heck, Mauer was right in the same lane as the immortal Yogi Berra excepting post-season heroics. Mauer is in the same class of players as Dickey, Cochrane, Hartnett, and Piazza. That's an easy Hall of Fame player. If the rule is you don't get in unless you're Johnny Bench or Pudge Rodriguez...then you're not electing another catcher for a very long time, if ever. Mauer was fantastic by any test and should go in first ballot. I can't penalize him for not having the rings; that was a team failure. Mauer did everything that was asked of him and was a wonderful player. He even turned into a terrific clubhouse leader in his later years mentoring a young team. I'm on Team Joe, always will be.

These sorts of extensions are an interesting move in that they're probably a win-win for both sides...but players who meet or exceed their expectations will feel underpaid (and possibly be bitter about it) at the back end, and players who get injured/bust will be vastly overpaid and fans will be bitter about it in smaller markets where the sunk costs hurt you more. But we're talking about guaranteed, life-altering, generational wealth, which is why it's not a bad move for the player. It reduces your ceiling on early career earnings, but it raises the floor substantially and still puts you in a position to be a free agent before you turn 30. (and if you're a star at that point, you'll get another big payday) The team gets cost certainty through the arbitration years and saves some money if the player produces like an all-star. They also don't have to go through the arbitration process and run down one of their core players and risk any hard feelings that way. They don't have to worry about the player being bitter about producing at a high level and getting closer to the league minimum. There's more risk for the team, but there are benefits. The fascinating spot is trying to find that balance point where the team feels certain enough about the player's prospects but the player isn't so certain of their immortality that both sides come together on it. Kirilloff's hit tool is as sure a thing as a prospect as I've seen since Joe Mauer...but if he blows out his knee he could be Jason Kubel part deux. Or worse. I'd explore the conversation with Kirilloff, especially because I am pretty certain that Rosario gets non-tendered. But it's probably the most challenging decision a front office has to make these days, and not a simple one for some players either.

What are the odds that arbitration gives Eddie Rosario a 3% raise? This is the fundamental issue with arbitration and why the Joc comp still doesn't matter: Peterson lost his arbitration case but still got a raise of better than 50%. When was the last time someone went to arbitration and didn't get a substantial % raise? The only way Rosario signs for $8M is if his management becomes convinced there's no market for him as a free agent if the Twins non-tender him. But what are the odds that a) they're thinking that, or eddie is willing to accept that? Players have egos too and are certainly going to be convinced of their own talent. Pride gets in the way and messes with people (the classic example is Latrell Sprewell, who rejected a reasonable contract for an aging veteran...and then never played again). Eddie's probably looking at his season and thinking he deserves a raise, and a multi-year contract. The Twins are looking at a guy who is getting expensive and may have topped out for his ability. I imagine the Twins are waiting as long as possible before a tender decision to see what they can see from the market...but I still see him getting non-tendered and then him signing elsewhere, because once the Twins make the call that they're not going to give him a 20-50% raise, pride will get in the way and regardless of what the market looks like he won't come back here even if it means signing for less in another market.

I was a little surprised at Ober, but the Twins may have seen him as a guy who could have been grabbed by a rebuilding team and stashed in the 'pen for a year. Rortvedt was the right call, IMHO. He's got some things to iron out as a hitter to become anything more than a defensive backup, but he's ready to receive right now and considering how many rough catching situations there are out there right now, I'm pretty confident a team would have grabbed him because of his skills behind the plate and worried about his hit tool later. Hard to know if anyone is going to take a flyer on Griffin Jax; he might be MLB-ready...but with no minor league season, who knows? He's probably the only one left on the list that's a major concern. I like Jose Miranda, but MLB roster spots are valuable and I'm just not sure a team is going to want to use one for the entire season on him.

I think Torii needed 2 of his 3.5 bWAR seasons to be more like 7-8 bWAR seasons. and another 2 of those 3 bWAR seasons to be 5 bWAR. He was a 5-time all-star, and some of those were a little questionable. He never had a top 5 MVP finish, and frankly never deserved one. Torii only got MVP votes in 5 seasons and only once finished higher than 15th...and didn't really deserve to finish 6th that year, either. Torii was very good and really valuable for a long time (having 12 straight seasons where you put up at least 3 bWAR is really valuable!), but the peak was never there. Not enough all-star quality seasons, no MVP caliber seasons...he's kind of the epitome of the Hall of Very Good.

Not a great field for starting pitching, lots of questions. The good thing is, the Twins aren't as desperate to get a top-end guy. I'd be happy to bring Odorizzi back, but even healthy we kinda know where his ceiling is going to be: 5 quality innings, unlikely to go 7 more than 1-2 times in a season. As a 4th starter that's fine, but how much do you want to pay for it? Frankly, I kinda wanna take a flyer on Kluber this year rather than bring back Rich Hill.

If you're talking about the best Twin not in the HoF I'd say it's Mauer, Oliva, Santana, then maybe Hunter. The first three are worthy, IMHO and are a distinct cut above Torii, much as a I love him Kaat is a complicated question...he's always felt borderline to me as a pitcher; a lot of his case hinges on his reputation as a great glove man, otherwise I think he doesn't get this kind of consideration. He wasn't a great run preventer and didn't have a lot of great seasons, but had quite a few good seasons and ate tons of innings. I might put Hunter ahead of him. Nathan is also complicated: we still don't have great ways to measure relievers. Once he made the shift to the pen, Nathan wasn't just good, he was dominant. The only reason he's not talked about as the best reliever of his era was he overlapped with Rivera, who he matched fairly well with for more than the occasional season...but Rivera sustained it while Nathan really only had 9 great seasons as a reliever; Mariano had 17. I think it's a fair argument that Nathan didn't do it long enough. If SF had figured out that he should have been a reliever immediately...but they didn't, so Hunter is ahead of him too. I loved both of these great 1Bs, Morneau and Hrbek but neither goes ahead of Hunter for me. Morneau got smashed down by that damn concussion and the injuries kept him from having the kind of length you'd need to go past Hunter. Hrbek was healthier and stayed consistently excellent at the plate for most of his career. (I still struggle with defensive numbers at 1B; bRef doesn't think much of Hrbek as a defender and would have Morneau about as good. Scouting and the eye test I think disagrees with that, especially early in their careers.) Hunter was a heck of a player, just not quite HoF.

Torii was an excellent player and had a long run where he basically didn't turn in a bad season (12 years or so in a row is impressive). He didn't have much of a decline period (last two seasons didn't add anything to his resume) and was a clubhouse leader for most of his career as well. The problem Torii has is he wasn't quite good enough to get to a bunch of milestones as a hitter, and was a bit overrated as a defender. (He won 9 Gold Gloves and defense is a huge part of his reputation...but he probably only deserved about half of those) He also didn't really have any signature seasons where he really tore it up; there's just no serious MVP-caliber seasons in there. There have been worse players elected, but Torii just doesn't quite fall into the same class. He was a wonderful player, very good for a long time. A deserving all-star a few times. But I wouldn't vote for him for the Hall, as much as I loved him as a player. Let's comp him to Kirby Puckett, another beloved Twins CF: they're bWAR is almost identical, but Kirby amassed his in 7 fewer seasons. Torii won more GG's, but Kirby also had 6 Silver Sluggers to go with it. Kirby had a couple of MVP-caliber seasons (arguably was robbed in 1992) and Torii never got to that peak. Kirby was still a quality player when his career was cut short, and won two WS, having a legendary Game 6 that is inscribed in baseball lore. Torii never got there. Torii's just a cut below the HoF for me. Andruw Jones is an interesting comp as well: similar length of career, a bit similar in defensive reputation...but Jones was legitimately elite for the start of his career in ways that Torii just doesn't match. Jones has 62.7 bWAR vs 50.7 for Hunter, and again: Jones played fewer seasons (2). Hunter was a more consistent player, especially on offense, but Jones had a much higher peak. I think it's clear that Jones was a better player for most of his career. Jones fell apart after 30 and Torii kept rolling along well into his 30's, but Jones' 20's were so incredible that he stands a cut above. Torii Hunter had a great career, was a wonderful player, but he wouldn't get my HoF vote.

Larnach is a terrific hitter and I think he's going to be an excellent player. But it's not that hard to see what Kirilloff has gotten more hype and appears to be ahead in the Twins rankings. 1) Kirilloff is a year younger, but has more ABs at AA than Larnach 2) Kirilloff had a season where he put up video-game numbers, even when going through a mid-season promotion. Larnach has never had a bad hitting season for the Twins, but has also never had a professional season quite like Kirilloff's 2018. Larnach was the better hitter in 2019 at AA, but was also healthier. Now, that's a significant chip to Larnach's total: health is a significant asset. While it's generally not in the player's control, and isn't necessarily projectable...staying healthy is a heck of an asset. They're both really exciting hitters. It's going to be really fun to see which one of them is the better power producer over time. Larnach's readiness as a hitter is one of the reasons the Twins aren't going to give away the farm for Nelson Cruz and are very comfortable letting Eddie Rosario move on. He's going to be a good MLB hitter and has the potential to be an all-star bat.

I know this is focused on console games, but HardBall for the C64 was awesome. (I never played the Genesis version that was ported over, but for PC baseball, HardBall! was the best, a huge leap forward.)

Tapani was great. Feels like people have already kinda forgotten about him and he had a great 1991 season. Best ERA, ERA+, FIP, WHIP of anyone in the rotation, made 34 starts (only 1 less than the "workhorse" Jack Morris), threw 244 innings (only 2 2/3 less than Morris, who got that extra start)...Tap was fantastic. He got touched up a little in the postseason, but his Game Two of the WS was fantastic. I saw that one again on replace this year before the baseball restart and FSN was running Twins classics and it was a masterful performance. Biggest shame for Tapani was he didn't make the majors until he was 25 and get his first full season when he was 26. I don't understand his minor league career at all, but getting Tap as part of the Viola trade was a shrewd move by the Twins.

That would be the smart thing to do. But considering the original hire was Jerry-driven and cut out the senior management...what are the odds the owner is going to step up here and take the hit? Especially since he considers having fired LaRussa back in the 80s to be the worst mistake he ever made? Hiring LaRussa was always a bad idea, for a variety of reasons. It's only gotten worse with the DUI. But with Alex Cora and AJ Hinch already getting hired back in, it seems the consensus in MLB is that they don't care about problematic managerial hires.

I think the only way someone like Hand is on the table is if the Twins cut Rogers loose into the pool. I'm also refusing to get on the "we need a proven closer" bit: closer is and almost always has been highly overrated. I want good relievers who can be firemen. I want guys who don't need to be in highly structured roles to be effective. And I definitely don't want to pay a ton of money to guy who can only be used in the 9th inning with a clean sheet. There's quite a few good relievers out there, but I would bring back Clippard and May unless someone tosses stupid money that them. And in this environment...who is making that play?

I think you've got better odds of seeing Rooker at 1B than Kirilloff in the next few years. Kirilloff is solid in the corners so I would expect him to stick there. I'm a huge fan of Kirilloff: he's got enough power production for the modern corner OF but he pairs it with tremendous bat control and good understanding of the strike zone. He's going to get a ton of hits and hit for a high average with enough walks to make the OBP look good. The hit tool is really great and he's going to be a guy you really want at the plate with runners in scoring position. He's not going to be chasing and swinging at tons of pitches outside of the zone and is willing to take a walk, but will most definitely swing the bat. He might not replace Rosario's power right away, but I don't think he'll be far off, and he will hit better overall. He won't replace Rosario's arm, but will likely be more consistent in the OF in catching the ball from recent vintages. I don't think the Twins play service time games with him because a) he's ready to go, and they will have a need. The only question mark about Kirilloff is the fact that he didn't play at AAA...and that's because there was no AAA last season.

Balazovic is the obvious call. Rortvedt is a guy I think who could get claimed. His catching is advanced enough that a team could carry him as a catcher even if he might not hit much. I'd add him. Miranda is probably the next one to me? If a team has cleared a bunch of guys, might be in tanking mode...maybe they take a flyer there. It kinda feels like the Rule 5 draft is gonna be a mess this year. How the hell do you project all these guys who didn't play?

I discount any production from Escobar after signing his FA contract: you simply can't say that the Twins would have gotten any of that. Maybe AZ signs him. Maybe another team signs him. Maybe to keep him the Twins have to add 2-3M per year. It's too speculative. They had half a season left of control and flipped him for a guy who projects to be a top half of the rotation starter. That's really good value. De La Trinidad looks like minor league depth at this point, but Maciel might be something more. But I agree: really hard to evaluate minor league guys who didn't get to play. Duran is the real piece for the Twins, and he's looking on track to pitch for the team in 2021 or 2022. The fastball splitter combo is an effective one and if his curve can be a solid third offering then he's got a pitch mix that can allow him to be an excellent starter. The stuff is there, the build looks right to stay healthy and strong. He keeps the ball in the park and the walks aren't too bad, so if he can keep this level of control at the MLB level he'll be fine. He definitely has the stuff to finish off hitters. I like this trade for the Twins.

It's not unusual to make the waiver claims. The question is whether these guys stick. Most of the time the move is going to be marginal, shoring up an area where you don't have a lot of depth in the upper minors or taking a flyer on someone you think you might be able to uncover. The last 3-4 spots on the 40-man are pretty fungible. I have no problem with the Twins making a grab on guys right now to see what they might be able to do. This isn't going to significantly impact free agency; this is covering every option to make sure that your floor is handled. Not sure either guy does much for me: Gibaut has some talent, but I think control is a tough one to fix. If they can, well, he has the stuff to compete. Waddell might be a bullpen option and will be easy to move on from if whatever they see in him turns out to not work out. Marginal moves, but I approve of the idea of constantly trying to make marginal improvements on the back end of the roster as part of your total strategy.

Stroman is interesting...I wonder if he's a 1-year guy looking to rehab his value before gunning for a big contract in a more normal environment? If so, he could be a good fit for the Twins who would likely be comfortable with a 1 year deal, and Stroman might be interested in working with Wes Johnson. Gausman is the guy I think I want; I was interested in him going into last season and getting him out of Balto almost immediately improved his standing. I'd love for him to get the proper coaching and support from the Twins over a couple of seasons...but I really don't know what kind of a deal he's looking for. But I would really look hard there. I'm a big no on Bauer, who I think is a bad fit in the clubhouse and unlikely to match last year. I think someone is going to throw a lot of years at him too, and regardless of what he might be saying I think he'll take it. Also a no is Ray, who looks like a mess. Fixing a player's control is a bigger challenge and Ray has never been strong in that area. age 26-28 seasons should be right in his prime...and he got progressively worse in those years: he may have peaked at 25. You can write off last year to COVID, but he wasn't great in 2019 and was only a little better (if less healthy) in 2018. So there's huge risk there and I'm not sure how much upside is there, despite the great K rates. The peripherals are only great in one area and there's plenty of red flags on this guy. He's literally had one really good/great season: outside of that, he's a 4th/5th starter. There's so much that needs fixing there that I don't think he's a great option. And with that trash control, he's not even a guy that you'd be all that excited about shifting to the bullpen if he falls apart as a starter. Surprised not to see Kluber on this list. He's an interesting rehab guy. If he gets healthy, he could be a huge upside play and that move has worked out ok for the Twins before.

Hinch at least got punished, not one of the players involved got so much as a fine. Was it enough of a penalty? Debatable. My instinct is no, but Hinch also at least expressed remorse for the whole thing and frankly it sounded like he tried to put a stop to it and was overruled by the deeply shady front office. I think it's a fair question to ask, and I think he should get a lot of questions. Let's see how he faces the fire. The LaRussa move is idiotic. I don't think he's going to do well in that clubhouse at all, I think their tactics just got worse, and they damn well better watch for cheating.

Rehab Kluber at a cheap price? Do an incentive-based low-risk contract to see if he has anything left or if the injuries have functionally ended his career. Oliver Perez doesn't do much for me; would rather bring back Clippard. Are we thinking that Clippard is going to suddenly be too expensive? Dude is 35, I just don't see teams throwing a multi-year deal at him.

Romo was fine for us, but this isn't that hard of a call. 1) you can probably resign him for less if you still want him, 2) there are better options available both in FA and internally for the roster spot. He did his job, overall, and was a solid acquisition, but moving on is the right decision. I'm more interested in bringing back Clippard and May. In a normal year, May is probably looking at a 3 year deal with someone who needs a closer option and might throw $20M at him. This year? not sure he gets more than 2 years. Clippard is another guy who probably struggles to get a multi-year deal in this environment; his age is going to work against him. Seeing Kluber's name on this list is really something. When pitchers fall, they can fall really fast. from 2014-2018 he was as good as any pitcher in baseball and now? He might be cooked. Do you kick the tires on him as a comeback player?