jmlease1

very happy with this signing, but pretty surprised that Atlanta couldn't/wouldn't match this deal. I think it's a fair deal for both the team and the player (and I'd be thrilled if Donaldson earns every incentive in here and they pick up that 5th year). Guessing the Nationals offer was too back-loaded/deferred for Donaldson. Gosh, it's nice to get picked in one of these dances! With a full spring training (and plenty of time in the ramp up to it), Sano should be able to get ready to play 1B on the regular and be effective at it. Hopefully he can get really comfortable making scoops, but he will make a damn big target to throw to over there! (did you see the pics of him at the PC? dude looks massive, but not fat. Holy cow) Donaldson is a great fit and should really help the offense insulate against regression from last year. You can't predict injury, but the Twins do have enough system depth to be able to deal with a couple of significant injuries, and Marwin gets to stay as the skeleton key to solve whatever problem you don't know you have yet. I'd love to finish this off by trading for Jon Gray. But regardless, you have to give some props to Falvine for making the big move

Well, I would have preferred to have Gibson back: Gibson is younger, has been healthier (despite last year's obvious struggles), and has been a bit better overall. Even when Gibby has been struggling he's been good at chewing up innings. About the only sure thing Bailey has going on is that he's cheaper. Taking Gibson out of the equation, and Bailey is...fine? As a move to keep the floor of the rotation higher and have some insurance against someone like Thorpe not being ready or uncertainty about if/when Rich Hill is back, or how much time Pineda needs to get into game shape...sure. We've got a good pitching coach, his splitter is good, so it's a Martin Perez kind of move (which worked for a couple of month before basically falling apart). If that's the expectation, well ok. I think I would have preferred Gausman and I definitely would have rather brought back Gibson, but with both of those guys off the table I like this as an insurance play. but to me, that really all it is: an insurance play for depth, against injury, against uncertainty, against youth, etc. If he pitches like it's 2014 or the second half of 2019, it's a win. But expecting 2012 or even 2013 Bailey is unrealistic. (Now, i will say that if you give 20+ starts to a guy whose ERA+ is 99 and he's your 5th guy? That actually ends up being pretty good for you for the regular season. I've said it many times and I'll keep saying it: one of the easiest paths to competitiveness is giving as few innings to terrible players as possible. Raising the floor is good, and the twins did a lot of that last year. Bailey might be a guy who keeps the floor fairly high. I expect no more from him, I'm afraid.

Because they're only off by 375K and there's no way that Team Berrios submitted a number that represented their absolute floor, one where if they don't get it they're pissed. And there's no way the Twins offered their absolute ceiling, a number which they'll go to the wall to keep from pay beyond. So if they don't work out a multiyear extension it's very likely they meet somewhere in the middle before a hearing.

Do they, though? Let's look at the actual stats for the last 3 years from bRef: Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average/year (at 3B, based on a projection of 1200 innings): 2017: -16 2018: -6 2019: -13 BIS Defensive Runs Saved Above Average/year (at 3B, based on projection of 1200 innings): 2017: -9 2018: -15 2019: -8 How is that getting appreciably worse? I'm not going to say that he's good by any means at 3B, but suggesting the advanced stats are saying he's getting worse at 3B (or suggesting he's too fat to play 3B) just isn't borne out by the evidence. Yes, he's "worse" than his age 23 season (where he played only 42 games at 3B, fewer than any time in the last 3 years, and roughly half of what he actually played there in 2017 & 2019...maybe small sample size was a factor there?) and his age 22 season...where he only played 9 games at 3B and any projection makes little sense. The sabermetrics are telling me that Sano is a fairly poor fielder at 3B, and has been for the past three years. They're not telling me much about whether he's getting better or worse overall; the best argument is probably that's he's basically been the same guy on defense there for the last three years. (and incidentally they also say he's awful in the OF and should never play there and the jury's out on him at 1B) Back to Kris Bryant: would I be interested in dealing Larnach and a tier three lottery ticket from A-ball for Bryant? I'd definitely think about it. I'd still rather just sign Donaldson, and I'd still rather spend prospect capital on pitching, but now we're talking a deal that at least makes more sense for the Twins. But you have to be betting that Kris Bryant is going to get back to his all-star form and will like it enough here that he'd consider staying, either signing an extension early or sticking when he hits FA. He's been an elite player, but hasn't been one for a few years. He is young enough that getting a rebound right now is certainly very possible, so if the deal lines up it's worth considering. But a package of Kirilloff/Lewis + one of Graterol/Larnach/Balazovic and a kicker from the ranks of someone at the Blankenhorn level is a pretty massive overpay, IMHO.

You're suggesting the Twins deal 2 of their top 5 prospects and throw in another one that's probably in the mid-20's for a player that's suing his current organization and is already going to be making $15M+ in year 1 with us, will get close to $20M in year 2 and could possibly be gone after that? Pretty sure we could get Syndergaard out of the Mets for less. I know we could get Jon Gray for less of a prospect haul. If we're giving up top prospects, I want top pitching, not a rental of a guy getting spendy at 3B., especially when he hasn't been anywhere near his MVP form for 2 years. Note: Bryant's D has taken a significant hit the last two seasons, so let's not pretend that he's going to suddenly turnaround our 3B defense. Yes, he's better at 3B than Sano but both guys value is tied to their offense right now.

well, Castro was a FA signing, not an extension...if your issue is multiyear deals in general, we also did multiyear deals on Marwin Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz. (yes, 2 years is a multiyear deal. yes, a team option counts) so that's 6 in 3 years and 5 in the last 2. It's not like they're ignoring this option, or letting guys walk instead of signing them to a multiyear pact.

Like the multi-year extensions given to Polanco, Kepler, and now Sano? I think the problem with Berrios on a long term deal is he's going into his year 26 season and is just hitting his first year of arbitration. There's a lot of variables for both sides to consider and it's not a simple construct. It's a lot harder to work out what a "fair" deal is and what both sides even want. Berrios has been healthy and good (almost exactly as good as Wheeler, who just got $118M and everyone wanted to be our ace next year, over the last 2 seasons). It's not crazy at all for Berrios to think, I want to get to FA as soon as I can, because I'm already as good as a guy who just scored a ton of money. I'm guessing he's not interested in buying out a year of FA right now; if he had a significant injury I bet he'd be a bit more interested. For the Twins, this is a guy who has been healthy and good and is just coming into his prime. But he's had a second half lull in the past two years and there's some risk that this is who he is: there's not another leap to take (which is what Wheeler's contract is about: every team that bid on him was better that he has another gear to unlock). There's also the question of injury: just because someone has been healthy doesn't guarantee that they will STAY healthy. You're trying to guess on whether or not the innings he's piling up are a signal that he's just a horse who isn't vulnerable to stress injuries or if he's a guy who is going to blow out their elbow after 1000 MLB innings and never be the same player. A Berrios extension is the most complicated to calculate of any of the arbitration guys. Not surprised that one hasn't been figured out. I'd like it to happen, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't. Also, I'm not worried at all about the $375K difference in their numbers. They're close enough together that Berrios isn't going to be insulted, the team isn't going to be pissed if they lose in arbitration, which means that no one has to get too aggressive if it gets to a hearing (and they could settle easily by splitting the difference somewhere near the middle before it ever gets there. wanna give him a "win" if you're the team? Instead of offering a 50% split, go 60-65% because $50K means nothing to your budget). Taylor Rogers came in a bit higher than I thought, Buxton a bit lower, but none of the settlements looked too weird and I think everyone probably walks out fairly happy so far.

I like this deal a lot. It's a good one for both sides: Sano gets life-altering money locked in (important for a guy with some injury history), and the Twins get cost certainty for the next two years with a good price on the first 2 years of free agency...but not so good that Sano is going to be pissed off after 1 year of the deal if he stays healthy and crushes the ball again. And especially if Sano sticks at 3B his market as a FA was going to be pretty significant. Even if he moves to 1B, he's going to have plenty of suitors; this isn't CJ Cron we're talking about. Cron's never gotten higher than 2.0 bWAR in his best seasons; Sano (despite the injuries) has 3 seasons that are better than that, and he's 3 years younger. Sano's floor is a 2 bWAR guy for the next 3 years; if he can play 120 games (a bit of an if since he's never done it) the floor looks a lot more like 3 bWAR with the ceiling more like 5 or so.. That's a guy who would get paid as a FA, not someone scrambling for a job in Feb. Sano's power is immense, and his HR rate isn't going to be messed up by changes to the ball, or do people really think he was getting cheap, juiced ball HRs last year? It plays in every park.

maybe he can play sax, since he doesn't have the extra bass. *runs away giggling*

Feels a little like Donaldson is using all the other suitors to try and get Atlanta to up their bid for him, which is apparently where he wants to play. Which, good for him and all, get what you want, but I suspect this is where a lot of the pessimism is coming from with the FO. My guess is they've got a offer in that they think is competitive and bigger than Atlanta's and Team Donaldson is trying to get all the suitors to go higher in an attempt to get Atlanta to improve their offer, and right now Atlanta is the team that's not really moving. I can understand being frustrated by being used as a stalking horse. Personally, I'd ramp up trade discussions with the Red Sox. I'd be very happy adding Price to this team, they could add him without giving up a lot in prospects because of the desire to dump salary over in Boston and they have the budget room to eat most (almost all) of his contract without a problem. So give back a mid-range prospect and a low-A lottery ticket and get the deal done.

Prospect deals are hard. Fans like us usually overvalue our prospects to some degree and we all live in fear of dealing someone who will almost immediately turn around and make a huge leap, becoming a perennial all-star, while the player we traded for busts out. I'll admit it, I get wobbly on that one too. But the deal for Thor is a flat-out no for me, and I don't think I'm being a Twins homer on this one. Buxton is an elite CF, whose only issue is staying healthy. Moving on from him means stretching Kepler in CF for next season, and hoping Royce Lewis is ready in a hurry and can handle the position switch. So there's that issue on why it's a bad play for the Twins from that aspect. but throwing in Kirilloff is exactly why this is a huge no. He's almost MLB ready right now and is an elite hitting prospect (yes, his stock is going to drop after nagging injuries last year, but this is a guy who was a top 20 prospect in all of baseball going into last year). This would be a monster win for the Mets (trading from an area of strength) and a desperation play for the Twins (screwing up another spot, paying too much) all to get a guy who you're hoping was unlucky last year, can get back to keeping the ball in the park at an elite level, can crank up his Ks again to be an elite pitcher and not just a good one. I don't love the idea of dealing Buxton, period, but I'm sure as hell not giving up one of our top 3 prospects along with him for a guy who need a bounceback. Of course the Mets would take this deal. This is probably the deal the Mets proposed at the deadline.

I'm not all that interested in trading for a position player right now; I want Donaldson because he's an elite player who can fill a need while significantly raising bar and only costing money. I'd much rather spend assets on trading for pitching; there's several 1B options on the FA market if Donaldson can't be convinced to leave Atlanta that would replace Cron's production nicely. Bell's a good hitter but prying a 27-year old relatively cheap asset out of Pittsburgh isn't going to be cheap. If he can sustain this level of offensive production while making marginal improvements on D, he's a borderline all-star. But is that the guy we want to dump a haul of prospect assets on? Especially if there's a concern that Sano isn't going to stick at 3B? You're not getting Bell for Rooker & Romero and an A-ball guy. Pittsburgh might not demand Royce Lewis, but they're going to want a significant asset to headline the package, not a couple of guys that are in the 20-25 range in the system. Archer is the more interesting guy over at Pittsburgh, IMHO.

"replacement" level in WAR is 0. Castro was significantly better than replacement level. His first, healthy year he was a solid starting catcher. His second year he was injured (it happens) and he didn't add (or subtract) much value since he barely played. His 3rd year, he was a backup and played like one. Since you can't predict injury, I think the contract ends up being fine. We got the starter we needed in year one, and by the time the contract was up, Garver was in place to take his ABs. That's not a bad result from a free agency move. If he hadn't blown out the knee, there's little doubt in my mind that he easily outperforms the contract. Since there's injury risk in every contract, you can't flip out too much about the results.

That's a pretty limited view, and frankly I don't want a front office that can only see one path to success. Donaldson is an elite player, a former MVP who improves the team substantially and would do a lot to guard against regression for the offense while making a big improvement to the defense. Yes, he's not the elite pitcher we all wanted, but we're not the only team who whiffed on landing that impact starting pitching. Bailey's a stop-gap, insurance against not making a trade for a better player, IMHO. Or Thorpe/Graterol not being ready to counted on as starters. He's just a guy and we're rolling the dice on our excellent pitching coach being able to get something out of him, at least until Pineda is back or Hill is available again. It's not the worst bet in the world and it's a move to keep the floor from falling out, and as I've noted before: a significant aspect to season-long success is keeping innings (or ABs, or time in the field) out of the hands of terrible players.

I'd prefer Gibson over Bailey (or Hill, who can't be trusted) but I have zero interest in Perez. I was fine with bringing Gibson back, but understood that he might need a fresh start considering his baggage in MN (years as a tease, the recent injury struggles, etc). And I get not throwing money at him while you're trying to land Wheeler, Bumgarner, or Ryu (all better pitchers). But replacing him with Homer Bailey is thoroughly uninspiring. The commitment is relatively light and it's better to have a guy like him with some potential in place for the start of the season over needing 2 guys to step up from internal rookie-type options, but it's hard to pretend this is a good option, more like a least-bad one. Now, if they sign Donaldson it's a successful off-season anyways, just maybe not the A-plan. But if they can't get Donaldson, they really need to make a move on the trade market.

Because a) we have young talent in the minors that could replace some of them, and we need impact pitching and some teams might want MLB talent over minor league lottery tickets.

How is Jon Gray like Gibson? Gray is 28, Gibson 32. Gray has an ERA+ over 130 in 2 of the last 3 years, has only had one year below 100 after his short first season in MLB (where he only played 9 games) and has a career average ERA+ of 110. Gibson has never had an ERA+ of 130. Gibson has never had an ERA+ of 120. Gibson has only had an ERA+ over 100 in 2 seasons in his career. About the only thing Gibson has ever done better than Gray is pitch more innings in a season...which might have more to do with Gray having to pitch in Colorado than anything else. Gray is a terrific trade target and I'd love to grab him. He profiles a lot like Berrios and would improve the top of the rotation significantly. But the reality is a trade is more likely to be done with minor league assets over MLB ones. Sano has more trade value than Rosario; he's a better hitter at a better price, could slot in at 3B/1B/DH and be a force in almost any team's lineup. Rosario's trade value is closer to Cave's (Rosario is more proven, with more power; Cave is cheaper, probably a bit better defensively). You don't give either away, but neither is the centerpiece for a trade for a top line MLB pitcher. Thorpe is really hard to value right now: maybe he's a mid-rotation starter, maybe he's a guy who needs to re-tool and end up in the bullpen. No one knows yet, though I think he's more to the first than the latter. He's got a lot of value right now...but he's also the most likely internal candidate ready to fill in the rotation NOW. So he's not a good trade chip in a lot of ways. The best trade assets the Twins have in MLB are actually Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, and Luis Arraez...but these are in the Twins core and unlikely to be dealt for anything. (Buxton is probably ahead of Garver but his injury history means he's more tradeable)

Go make the deal for Price. Eat most if not all of the contract (for it is money we have and pitching we lack) and keep the prospect cost lower. Price slots in nicely alongside Berrios and is certainly better (or at least consistently better) than Gibson, which sets up the rotation pretty darn well. We know Boston wants to dump salary, we know he's the contract they most want to move. Let's go for it. The risk really isn't that bad, especially for a team whose window is open right now. I wouldn't mind finding one more veteran since Pineda is going to miss the first 6 weeks or so. Yes, you don't need a 5th starter as often early on, but it would be better to only need 1 internal guy to step up. (Thorpe is my choice). Offseason isn't a failure yet, but it's disheartening to see the Twins miss on every top FA pitcher. Some of it wasn't really in their hands, but the reality is part of the front office's job is to overcome those objections and sell the player and agent on coming to your city. And if they couldn't sell it, then they bear a share of responsibility for that too.

He's 2 years away from free agency; he could be the mayor of Nashville and if he's dealt he's coming or he's not getting paid. Now, might that mean he'll run away as soon as he hits free agency? maybe, but with 2 more arbitration years on the table, that's a concern for another day. Matz is interesting if the price is right and Wes Johnson thinks he can do something with him to add a tick to the fastball or ramp up the control or something. Otherwise, he's a good 4th starter and doesn't move the needle much.

Not really. Twins aren't going to sell low on a guy they think can still be an asset unless they have to. Gordon was having a fine season before the injury bug hit him; lest anyone forget, he probably would have been the one called up instead of Arraez if he hadn't gotten hurt. I don't understand the "Gordon won't hit for years" comment: his hit tool is the strongest part of his game, and he should hit for average immediately. if it's a reference to not making the majors, the only thing really stopping him at this point is Polanco & Arraez are established in front of him and in the short term Adrianza is a more certain bet with more positional flexibility. But there's a real possibility the Twins might have moved on from Adrianza in the offseason if Gordon had gotten through the season healthy. Right now, teams are offering a bag of used balls for Gordon, hoping the Twins are foolish enough to dump him. I'm glad they didn't bite on it. There's no point in dealing him for some janky reliever; there's plenty of those on the market and all they cost are money, which the Twins have plenty of right now. And if Gordon hits like he did last year and plays a full season, he's got real value, and there's no reason to think he can't do it.

I think Gordon's bat is ready now, but I expect him to be the first middle infielder to get a callup, not so much to make the club out of spring training. I agree, he's stretched at SS so I don't think the Twins are likely to bump Polanco to 3B to plus Gordon in, and I think they like Arraez at 2B. But he's still a nice player and I expect him to contribute in 2020. If he gets dealt, I think a team is going to be pretty happy with him. Rooker is also damn close...I wish he'd been healthier last year. It would have been good to see if he could have finished strong. The Ks are a concern, but the power is legit. Adam Dunn clone? Young Adam Dunn was a really good offensive player and awful defensively. His usefulness collapsed once he stopped playing in the field, and you have to wonder if he should have been transitioned to 1B earlier. Rooker getting more run there might be the smartest play for him. Maybe with more time he can be an average 1B instead of being a bad corner OF? Still not sure he can make enough contact to make his power play enough in MLB, but he could be an effective "three true outcomes" guy. I'm definitely high on Thorpe. I really think he's poised to make the leap and I'd like him to be in the rotation to start the season filling in for Pineda. Let's see how he does with a defined role and not on the Rochester shuttle. He's got the stuff, but he needs refinement and innings. Both Kirilloff and Larnach are close and could leap past other guys quickly, a la Arraez. Kirilloff had a bunch of nagging injuries and that dragged him down a bit last year, but healthy he will absolutely rake. Larnach impressed with his ability to adjust to a new level and keep on hitting. Either one is a fine choice to take the next leap (I like Kirilloff more; while Larnach had the better overall year last season, Kirilloff has shown a higher ceiling and at a younger age, even with the one major injury).

Clevinger or Bieber are a coin-flip for me. I'd take either immediately. plenty of control left, they'd slot right in for the next several years and look great doing it. Clevinger is probably a little higher upside, but Bieber is probably a bit more of a sure thing for a full year. Either would be the choice (even over Lindor, who is a terrific player). Giolotto is riskier to me: last year he was great, but he was horrid the year before. I like the CLE guys track record a bit better. I wonder who CLE or CHI would take from the Twins if they had one free pick?

I'd love to see a Donaldson signing. It makes sense in a lot of ways: Sano can move to 1B and should do fine there with a full spring training to prepare. The defense gets better at 3B for sure in the near term. The offense gets an upgrade because you're replacing Cron's bat with Donaldson, who is substantially better. The high OBP is a great fit too. Donaldson has good splits, so you don't have to worry about protecting him, and he's absolutely crushed it in Target Field (yes, small sample size) so it's not like the stadium will be a problem. Here's the other thing: Cruz is probably done after this season. Maybe he retires, but the odds of the Twins rolling the dice on a 40-year old again is increasingly unlikely. I'm betting that the DH spot gets filled by committee in 2021 and putting Donaldson on that committee makes it more likely he stays healthy and can continue to play a majority of games at 3B deeper into this contract. there's a good fit there and the money is less worrisome with Cruz's contract coming off the books. And even with a Donaldson signing, they still have the payroll space to sign Dallas Keuchel with no real issue. Or to take on a David Price in trade. And they certainly have the horses to go get Jon Gray (whom I'd would love)

The second to last paragraph has the key point on Blankenhorn's future: getting his OBP up. If he can't get it back above .350 in AA/AAA, then he's not going to be a real prospect with much of an MLB future. He's got enough pop in his bat to be a useful player, especially if he can be average (or better) at 3 positions, but he's got to get the OBP up. There's just not much room for a guy who only draws 30 BBs a year with that many Ks, especially if he's only slugging .450-.475, unless he's a superior defensive player...which Blankenhorn is not. I'm rooting for him; he did enough last season to make himself a prospect again. But after a mediocre 2017 and a bad 2018 he's still a "now or never" kind of guy, I'm afraid.

i think it's more likely to go the other way with Graterol: begins the year starting, but come September might end up in the bullpen after his innings pile up. But it's also possible they'll work around it by treating him more like a 5th starter who gets skipped for extra rest along the way during the year to space out his innings. Hard to know; we don't know what the Twins analytics section is thinking about innings limits and developmental milestones for young pitchers right now. Personally, I think Thorpe might be the best/most ready internal option and I'd like to see him as the 5th starter to begin the year (presuming we sign or trade for two more external options, with Pineda missing the first 6 weeks or so).He's got the stuff to be an interesting starter with solid peripherals. Yes, he got smacked around a bunch in his short stints last season...but Berrios got hammered worse in his first shot at MLB time. There's no question Thorpe can get Ks and he's generally been good about keeping the ball in the park. I think he's the most likely first option for the rotation internally, presuming he's not traded.