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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Seems more likely that Garver will get a little time at 1B if they need to get Sano a day off right now unless Rooker makes the roster? I just don't see Arraez as being a good option there, seeing as how he's basically never played the position and is a pretty small dude. If Sano goes down for a significant period (i.e., actually hits the injured list) then you'll see Rooker/Kirilloff get in as a starter. I don't see any real problems for the Twins at 1B right now. Sano is looking good there right now and is locked in to a good contract. They've got guys who can drop into the position coming up in the minors, and if something significant happens after this year and for some reason Rooker/Kirilloff isn't an option and Sano is out of the picture...finding a 1B is pretty easy while they wait for Sabato or someone else to be ready. Hopefully, the Twins can minimize the bad stretches this year (return of video use might help there) for Sano and he can launch a ton of balls far into the sky.
  2. jmlease1
    We do not need 14 pitchers. We should not have 14 pitchers. Even with starters "easing in" it's just silly. Unless you're pulling pitchers out of the game in the 4th consistently, there's not going to be enough innings to keep guys in form and it's stupid to have a guy on the roster who only gets into a game once a week at best. Beyond that...a 3 man bench really shrinks the options. Whether it's Astudillo, Blankenhorn, or someone else...put another bat on the bench.
  3. jmlease1
    I don't understand this mentality. Trout is a generational player, an MVP candidate every year. He's put up 6 seasons that were worthy of winning and almost certainly lost out because his teams haven't been very good, even though he's been the best player in the game. You seem to be suggesting that if the Twins don't find the next Mike Trout, they're a failure. You realize that makes a failure every year out of basically every team in baseball? A Mike Trout doesn't come along every few years, finding one in all of MLB happens more like once in 20 years. "meh, who cares about finding an all-star...if they don't turn up a first-ballot Hall of Famer, a perennial MVP candidate, someone who is trying to be the second coming of Willie Mays...screw 'em." If your standard is, "first-ballot Hall of Famer"...expect to be disappointed A LOT.
  4. jmlease1
    Garver was battling injuries in 2020 and if you thrown in the weirdness of the pandemic (and small sample size) it's easy to forecast a pretty significant rebound. we don't need 2019 Garver for catcher to be a position of strength; even something closer to 2018 Garver on offense will be a quality asset. I think he'll be ok; it sounds like he's healthy now. Jeffers is great from a production standpoint; the only thing that isn't ideal with this pairing is there's no platoon advantage to add to the mix. But that's a small thing in the light of how bad most team's backup catcher is. Heck, Jeffers would start for a LOT of teams so splitting time like this really puts the team in good shape. Is there drop-off if we run into a bunch of injuries at catcher? Sure, but name me one team that isn't facing that. But even in that case, the Twins are in better shape than most teams; Astudillo can fill in and still add something on offense, Telis is a competent receiver, and Rortvedt is MLB ready on D right now...he just might be a classic no-hit catcher who gets on the field for D. Twins should probably commit another pick to the position in the next year or two to keep the pipeline going; you can never have too many catchers in development who can hit.
  5. jmlease1
    Is literally anyone talking like this? Buxton is clearly still considered an important part of the present & future, a guy they just want to be healthy. Kepler is signed to a long-term deal and they're committed there too. Cave is a 4th OF who is stretched in CF. No one is talking about dumping him, but it's eminently reasonable to think that he could be surpassed, but they chose him over Wade. I get there's hyperbole going on here, but I don't understand at all what the point is to it in an article about Brent Rooker who might get squeezed out of consistent MLB ABs because of his defensive limitations and quality players ahead of him. I like Rooker's RH bat on the bench, but I think it's fair to think they'll want/need a player with more positional flexibility coming out of camp. Seems most likely that he starts in AAA and comes up if/when there's an injury, but it's still possible that he could win an OF job in spring training, if he shows he can lay off breaking pitches sailing out of the zone. I'd give him as many ABs in spring training as I could against guys who throw that junk to see if he can handle it. I also hope the Twins don't go with 14 #@$*&$^% pitchers out of camp too; having a 3 man bench is stupid and even if starters are going 5 innings there's still not going to be enough innings for 9 flippin' relievers. Keep an extra bench spot, maybe Rooker can win it with that RH power swing.
  6. jmlease1
    It's also important to realize that just because someone signs with Boras it doesn't necessarily mean that he's really their primary guy, too. He's a big-time agent with a lot of clients...Kirilloff will get some attention but not undivided. The extensions before making their debut have a lot more value to guys who were lower draft picks. Kirilloff got a healthy signing bonus and it makes it easier to bet on himself. He also doesn't need to support his family. I think he's going to be a great, great hitter so I'd love to get him locked down and not have to deal with any arbitration games and hold him through at least 1-2 years of FA...but we'll see how it goes.
  7. jmlease1
    I'd love for Thorpe to figure it out. Lucky for the Twins to get that 4th option to work with him in Saint Paul this season; I would expect him to get 3-5 starts in MLB this season as guys miss time due to injuries. (Dobnak will be the first option out of AAA I think, then Thorpe (if he shows that he's got the velocity and mind-set right), then Duran) Guys are going to miss a turn, get dinged up. You'll need a guy for a double-header. It's just a reality that you need to run out 7-10 different guys to start a game in a full season...hopefully Thorpe can be one of them and set himself up to compete for a rotation spot in 2022
  8. jmlease1
    I guess it depends on how you evaluate him. He's projected as a 4th starter for a team that has DeGrom & Carrasco as their top 2; Stroman is probably slotted in as the #3 because he's been more consistently healthy...but is he really better? And if Syndergaard was healthy from the jump, he'd be their #2. So he's projected as a #3/4 guy for the Mets going into the season. Walker was also really good last year, but he substantially outperformed his FIP, so some people and measures are going to discount the success as a fluke...but he's also a pitcher who has outperformed his FIP pretty consistently and significantly. It's a little hard to project a guy like Walker who wasn't healthy for 2 years and then we had a small sample weird-ass season...there's not a lot that's current to project him on. Duran looks like he could be the better version of Walker: similar pitch mix, but with a staff that can unlock advantages for him earlier in his career, and hopefully he stays healthy. If that's the case, then he's a #2/3 on a good staff, not a 4/5.
  9. jmlease1
    He looks like a guy who just needs game innings to refine a third offering and get experience in mixing pitches to set up hitters. The talent is there. It will be interesting to see if the Twins have him focus on working on just one breaking ball this year to try and establish a solid 3-pitch mix. I'm guessing they'd work on the slider, partly because that seems to be an organizational preference, but also because it would probably work well with his other two pitches. While the slower curve could look really slow and throw people off against his hard stuff, it also might be a lot easier to detect. I'm really excited about Duran. I don't expect him to be a significant part of the rotation this season absent a ton of injuries, but he's on track to be a fixture in 2022 and that's fantastic. He could be really really good. At worst, he's a weapon in the bullpen, but he could be a feature in the top half of the rotation for years.
  10. jmlease1
    I loved Dozier as a Twin, was sad to see him go (even though it was the right decision at the time to deal him), but there's some classic ball player hilarity in his retirement statements. “It has nothing to do with the ability to play or my body or anything. I feel great and feel like I definitely can play a lot more, but it was a decision." reality is he was a shadow of the player he was from 2014-2017. he's retiring because age and injury have brought him down and no one was likely to offer him anything other than a minor-league deal at this point. Great player while he was going, and I'm really happy he got a ring with the Nationals. Hope he can find a place in baseball to do some coaching if that's what he wants. but retirement was coming whether he wanted it or not, I'm afraid.
  11. jmlease1
    What are the bad deals? You're clearly underrating the Maeda deal, for whatever reason: the twins dealt a reliever for a starter and said starter was awesome in his first season and has a contract that's incredibly team-friendly. While the Dodgers may have gotten what they wanted as well, it's still an excellent deal for the Twins by basically reasonable measure.
  12. jmlease1
    I'm really enthusiastic about balazovic and would be tempted to push him higher. I really think he could be a serious horse in the rotation. (I've also made it a goal to consistently pronounce his name right before the end of the season, gah) I'm really glad he was working in saint Paul last year, but it's a real shame he didn't get to face regular competition in minor league ball. But I think he could see Target Field in 2021.
  13. jmlease1
    I guess it comes down to whether you're looking at the roster as a collection of names/talent or as names/performance. From the former, then no...the Twins haven't done all that much to improve the roster, mostly just shuffled things around to fill some holes. They lost some talent, they patched in some other talent. From an expectation of performance...you could argue they're better positioned. If you get more healthy games from Buxton/Donaldson/Garver, then it's like adding a lot of talent from a production standpoint. Twins had a good offseason. they didn't have tons of holes to fill, but they also didn't make a big splash move. I do like the depth on this team a lot and some of the young talent might really get a chance to shine this year. should be a really fun team to watch and I'm looking forward to the games.
  14. jmlease1
    Cavaco is a tough one to rank. He's this high because of his tools, his youth, and his draft position. His professional performance has been miserable, but it's hardly enough ABs to be meaningful. I'd feel a lot more confident about where he is if he'd played a full year of pro ball. for all we know, he might go out and dominate this season. Or he might need every AB he can find to get his hit tool on track. I'd probably drop him a bit lower just because he may have been a bit of a reach as a pick and toolsy high school kids can need a longer development curve. Is he Wander Javier or Max Kepler? or does he just need a full year of pro ball and instruction to turn into a fast riser? cavaco has almost unlimited questions...but also has a ton of potential. I think 7 is high, but I get that there might not be a lot of significant different between being ranked 12 and being ranked 7, especially when you consider positional differences.
  15. jmlease1
    I guess we'll see how his power potential actually plays and whether or not he makes enough consistent hard contact to be a Sano-type slugger. Not sure I would have him ranked this high due to his limitations defensively, and there's always a question about how well college sluggers will adapt...but he does seem to have serious power. I'm not worried about him being "blocked"; if he's great then he'll force his way into the lineup and we do have potential spaces opening up along the way. I'm also not opposed to having some of our other guys lock down positions with their dominance and making Sabato a trade chip. Draft talent and skill and figure out positioning and playing time and opportunity later. Besides, this stuff changes so rapidly. Think about where the Twins were at 1B a couple of years ago: did we have anyone coming up through the pipeline? Heck, did we have anyone on the roster we were ready to hand the job to? (answer: no, we went and grabbed CJ Cron because 1B was pretty thin and the best internal options just created a different hole)
  16. jmlease1
    "max effort delivery" feels like a buzzword that doesn't have enough context and real research behind it yet. How many supposed "max effort" guys have actually had TJ in relationship to the total number, and how do you quantify who qualifies? This is like Verducci's theory that guys who increase their inning totals too much from year to year are more likely to get injured: it sounds good, it makes intuitive sense...but is there actual data to support it, or are we living in the land of anecdotal evidence? Until he actually gets hurt or his mechanics fall apart consistently, I'm not going to worry about it for him. I'm excited that he's added velocity on the fastball and honing his secondary offerings and seems to like working with the Twins on some analytics. Him missing a year really stinks, because he was likely to have risen pretty quickly, and I'd really rather he be starting at AA, working against more advanced hitters and so forth. If he can work consistently in the mid-90's with the fastball and pair it off with a sharp curve, that's a great basis to be mixing with. Looking forward to seeing what he can do, and really hope he can stick as a starter.
  17. jmlease1
    Bringing Shoemaker in to compete for the 5th spot sounds like a solid idea. Dobnak is fine but probably shouldn't get the spot on scholarship, and frankly we'll need the pitching depth...because everyone needs the pitching depth. And I would be really interested to see if tweaking his pitch mix has a significant impact. That's the sort of thing that makes it a realistic upside play and not just "well, we need another veteran"
  18. jmlease1
    It's interesting with pitchers...sometimes they dominate from the start. Other times they have that breakout season that rapidly takes them to a new level, when they finally unlock/control something that lets them be their best pitcher. Some pitchers just kinda stay the same, never really getting any better or worse as they float up levels. And then there are the total busts who flame out fast. Enlow feels like he's somewhere between the 2nd & 3rd of these and we don't know which one he'll be. It wouldn't take much for him to start kicking ass with a fastball with good life on it and wicked curve...but if the curve doesn't improve...he might be one of those guys who just never takes the leap. He's got another year before he hits Rule 5, right?
  19. jmlease1
    i think the Royals are adding some players to raise their floor so their young talent doesn't just experience constant losing at the MLB level. They may not be ready to compete during benintendi's contract, but they've got the payroll room and then they can use the space to get a better player at the end of it. might help them win a few more games and keep their fans engaged?
  20. jmlease1
    Rooker did great in his brief stint, but his minor league stats didn't show him consistently making that same kind of contact, so projecting him off his cup of coffee in MLB probably isn't a realistic expectation. It's great that he jumped in and the lights weren't too bright for him, but it's fair to think that with more exposure he's going to whiff a LOT more. It'd be great to be wrong, because that power is legit. Celestino is going to be interesting. His D is probably MLB ready right now and if he can get on base at a solid number he's going to be a nice insurance policy for Buxton sooner rather than later. I'm hoping he doesn't need to be brought up this year and just gets piles of ABs in AA...and hopefully shows a good and consistent approach at the plate. Seeing how much pop is in his bat will be worth watching this year, but he's looking like a nice player who will be a plus defender and could be a plus hitter. Some nice players on this list. Wallner is the least interesting to me; he doesn't look like he's got a great path to the majors right now, the loss of a development year really hurts him, and I'm not sure how much value he has as a trade asset. he's going to really get a hot start out the gate and dominate. Hope he can, but if he's not in AA before the end of the season, you have to wonder if he has enough of a ceiling.
  21. jmlease1
    Kenta Maeda's career splits by month: April/March: BA .259 OBP .315 SLG .429 OPS .744 May: BA. 197 OBP .266 SLG .342 OPS .608 June: BA. 204 OBP .282 SLG .311 OPS .592 July: BA. 237 OBP .290 SLG .421 OPS .711 August: BA. 204 OBP .259 SLG .373 OPS .632 Sept/Oct: BA .224 OBP .276 SLG .382 OPS .659 This is a guy who "gets worn down"? I think the reality is the Dodgers dumped him into the 'pen because a) he was effective there and they needed the help, they had more effective starters than they had relief help, and c) they wanted to dodge some of the incentives due in his contract. It's a fine trade for both teams. the Twins needed starting pitching and got it, They got a contract that is team-friendly, even when paying out all the incentives. The Dodgers wanted bullpen help and got a guy with a big arm under team control. both players performed well in their roles in the first season after the deal Trades aren't a zero-sum game, and having some deals where it works out fine for both clubs probably makes it easier to deal in the future,
  22. jmlease1
    well, Rooker was injured. He probably would have gotten the call if he hadn't had that fluke injury. and Buxton wasn't healthy either. I don't think giving Kirilloff his first start in MLB in a playoff game was a preferred option.
  23. jmlease1
    It'll be interesting to see if training camp really has significant battles for the last relief spot, the last rotation spot, a starting spot in the OF, and the last bench slot. Sometimes these things look decided before camp opens, sometimes a guy kicks a door open and refuses to be sent down. Kirilloff could be one of those guys. Despite the service time manipulation issue, he might hit so well that the Twins just can't drop him down. I'd love for them to sign him to a long-term deal to get away from that issue, but with his representation I see that as being a zero-chance proposition. With the lack of minor league ball last year, the Twins have a legitimate case to start him in AAA...but I still think I'd rather see him starting in LF from day 1. That said...hard to say Rooker doesn't deserve a chance too. We'll see if there's a late veteran starter signing, otherwise it sure looks like Dobnak is the 5th guy (I'm fine with that). The last slot in the 'pen isn't that meaningful when you're carrying 26,574 pitchers on the roster...maybe Thorpe is the guy who is best suited to pitching once every 8 days. Even with starters going 5 innings, it's hard to find work for that last bullpen slot. I think Tortuga gets the last bench slot; while I don't think the Twins love him at catcher, he does give them that flexibility. I think Blankenhorn starts at AAA and hops on the Green Line a lot this year if/when injuries hit.
  24. jmlease1
    It depends on what you value and how you define it. Mays was such a great fielder and hitter...did anyone even think about asking him to pitch? Ruth also played in a segregated era, with all that entails. They ended up very close in career bWAR totals 162.1 for Ruth v. 156.2 for Mays, and Mays missed a season for military service. Which one was "better"? yes. Back to Cruz...I don't think he'll pass any of these players for "best season over 40" mostly because Cruz is gonna DH and all of these guys played the field. Maybe, just maybe he can top Sam Rice, but it's really hard for a DH to punch out a 5 bWAR season because of the position adjustment. I do think he'll have another good season, OPS+ around 140-150 and be an important cog in the offense.
  25. jmlease1
    I think Thorpe has a problem: he was a non-entity last season, is behind Dobnak in the competition for the 5th spot in the rotation, and the Twins really don't need another lefty in the 'pen right now. With Thielbar & Rogers, along with the splits that Colome has...they really don't have an immediate need for another lefty arm. The one thing that might get Thorpe in the 8th slot is his ability to go multiple innings. I don't know what the Twins are thinking for the 8th spot and how much they value having relievers go 1+ innings for some of their guys or not. I think Alcala is going to see more late inning opportunities. He looked like he was capable last season, so while he'll probably start the year getting more 6th inning jobs, I'm betting he's taking on higher leverage appearances quickly.
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