jmlease1

So what happens with Pineda's suspension? Is that pro-rated based on the relative length of the season?

I'm wondering if some of the decision-making around this year's draft and going heavier on hitters might be some risk mitigation and belief that these hitters are more projectable? It's an interesting draft. I have no objection to grabbing up college hitters and while there seems to be a belief that the team is well-stocked on corner OFs and 1B/DH types, it wasn't that long ago that we struggled to find a consistent option at DH and until Rosario/Kepler arrived we cycled through a lot of guys in the corners. Depth is good. In baseball more than any other sport, I believe in drafting for talent over need because of the uncertainty with draft picks and the typical length of development. Hopefully, the Twins are evaluating well? The first round pick seems fine on talent/value. There seems to be some reasonable questions on the second rounder.

I think it's reasonable to have less faith in top 100 lists and so forth this year compared to other years with the pandemic ending seasons early and reducing the ability to scout. There are reasons to be skeptical of the pick, but also interesting signs of projectable skills and talent.

I can understand cutting the draft back, but I'm having trouble understanding why they're going down to only 5 rounds. seems excessive to me.

oof. you can see why current Twins fans reflexively keep saying we need more pitching. NOT a strong era for starters.

The rotation was excellent at the top but fell off pretty rapidly afterwards. I think I still put Liriano in there over the crew of Baker/Silva; injuries are what sapped him as a Twin but the upside and elite stuff were better than the rest of them. Baker only had 2 good seasons with the Twins in this decade, Silva really only had two good seasons... Milton's best skill was chewing up innings even if he wasn't often great; he might have been the most valuable from that group... which is not great.

The more I think about it, the more I would pick Kubel to DH over Ford. Kubel had a number of seasons where he was a solid hitter to go along with his one excellent season (which he was the primary DH) and Ford really only had the one. It's a shame we only really got to see Kubel in MLB after his knees were wrecked.

ooof the middle infield was rough in the 00's! Guzman..Bartlett...neither great, both had one really good season that they never repeated as a Twin...I guess you give it to Guzman on longevity? 2B was a wasteland, Punto is probably the best choice even if we saw his best play when he was at 3B. Yuck. It's also sad how bad DH was for the Twins during this decade...look at all the ABs Jason Tyner ruined for us there! Honestly the failure to find a plus DH might be the biggest failure of the regime during those years: it shouldn't have been that hard to find or develop a player to just hit to give more quality. Lew Ford is...a reasonable choice? Oh dear. Otherwise it's a pretty impressive roster! 2 MVPs loads of all-stars...

I think he can still stick there for 3-4 more years; while the defense isn't good, he's not exactly the Butcher of Cairo out there and he's still in his athletic prime. If he continues to work on his defense, there's real opportunity for him to improve, particularly with his arm where he can improve his mechanics, strength and accuracy. There is a better recognition of defensive metrics and teams are more reluctant to put bad defenders on the field, I don't think it's applying to players like Polanco. The defensive crunch is taking out one-dimensional sluggers who simply can't play at key defensive positions. Guys who are plus offensively and can survive defensively up the middle will still get a pass until their defense just makes it impossible to play them there and Polanco isn't in that position. Partly because his defense, while poor, isn't unplayable and partly because the Twins don't have a better solution pushing to make the field. BRef's WAA shows the Twins were 9th at SS and that's because of Polanco. You'd love to add some additional defensive value, but as long as he hits like this you don't worry too much about his defense unless it really falls off the map. He's got more seasons at SS in him for sure.

Overall, I think this is a pretty fair breakdown. I think Hunter vs Mauer is a really interesting conversation; both have been accused of being overrated as defensive players, both played positions that were highly impactful defensively before shifting to positions that are much less impactful. It's a really close call there I think? Kaat was probably as elite as Buxton at his position as a fielder, but I think there's just more impact in CF. It's a fair call. It's interesting how few SS are represented here and how many 1Bs are. (and Vic Power and Don Mincher didn't even make the list)

Aguilera was the winning pitcher of game 6 in the '91 WS, not game 7 of course. Also took the loss in game 3. Great pitcher, did a fantastic job for the Twins for a long time, but I'd put him behind Joe Nathan. Aggie had better results in the postseason than Nathan but outside of years of service that's the only area where he outpoints Nathan. Too small a sample size to push him ahead of Twitchy who was just insanely great with MN.

I find it really odd that Shane Mack couldn't attract attention from other teams back in '94, but maybe it was a case of baseball owners colluding again. Maybe they all thought he was never going to be the same player he was in 91-92. But considering how well he was playing in 94 that's a pretty stupid judgment for everyone to make; '93 looks like the anomaly not the predictor. I loved him as a player. He's not a forgotten player to anyone who loved the Twins in the 90's.

Even if arbitration wasn't officially frozen...how do you go in to an arbitration hearing asking for substantially more money if you didn't play? I think baseball is going to find a way to have some kind of a season; truncated, maybe played without fans in the stands, but I don't think the entire season will get wiped out, but maybe that's just me. It would be a tremendous shame if a player like Eddie Rosario never played another game in MN.

Hard to know if he would have spent the whole career in MN without the concussion, but I feel pretty confident they would have at least tried to keep him for another contract...and I think it's likely he would have given at least a little hometown discount to stay. I dunno if he would have been a Hall of Famer; always hard to project, but the concussion almost certainly cost him 10-15 bWAR which would have put him in the same collection with guys like Gil Hodges and Don Mattingly even with no additional seasons at the back end. Getting cut down in the middle of his best season and having the effects of that injury lead into his worst season as a pro is a huge bummer, not just for his HoF case, but for what baseball fans missed seeing. Love Justin Morneau. I'm so happy he's stayed connected to the franchise and is part of things now. His era with the team is a bit of a lost era filled with what ifs and almosts, but he was still a wonderful player to watch.

I hope Blankenhorn can maintain that positional flexibility. He'll be a much more valuable prospect if he's a guy who can play 2B/3B/OF and have a nice path to the majors. If he gets pushed down to corner OF, I'm not sure he's going to hit enough to force his way ahead of guys like Larnach or Kirilloff. Good to see that he's embracing that aspect. He could be the replacement for Marwin on this squad if he continues to develop. I thought Blankenhorn might have stalled out after a disappointing 2018, but he really did a nice job in 2019 showing he had more in him. Hopefully he'll be able to actually get some paying time this year, he's at an important stage in his development.

Honorable mention to Tapani pitching out of the jam in the top of the 8th in game 2. Just watched the game again on FSN the other night, what a gutty performance by Tap! I would also put the Gagne-Knoblauch decoy on the list. I don't care what Lonnie Smith says, he got fooled and it was brilliant.

I think you need to take a closer look at Radke, who was probably better than you remember, and a better pitcher than Jim Perry to beat. Radke compiled 45.6 bWAR for the Twins in 12 seasons; Perry only reached 26.3 bWAR in 10 seasons with the Twins. The ERA+ is the same, but Radke did it over an additional 575 innings pitched, and while doing it in an era where pitchers were already not going as deep into games. Perry's Cy is nice, but a) his best season was probably '69, not '70 and he didn't deserve a Cy in either year. Radke's best season ('99) was as good as anything Perry ever put up, and he was just as good in '00. Radke put up 4-6 seasons that were all-star quality (Perry had more 2); how exactly is that average? Radke's rep gets pushed down because he played in a high scoring environment for some pretty rotten Twins teams. Take 1999: he was terrific, but went 12-14 on a rotten team with an incredibly anemic offense (Koskie & Cordova were the only ones who were even above league average; Coomer led the team in HRs with 16. Good lord, only 16. on the 2019 Twins that puts him in 9th place, barely jumping ahead of Marwin). A putrid squad overall, but Radke was great. It's hardly his fault the Twins squandered his best years with such awful teams around him. Even then, he clawed out a 20 win season in '97 on a team where the next 3 starters combined for 22 wins. Bottom line: Brad Radke was a heck of a pitcher.

Molina peaked in 2012 too, had a similar season to Posey. (I'll admit, I've always wondered a little about Molina's big jump in offense from 2011-2013, but maybe he did just hit his peak from 28-30. As a catcher.) It's always a little depressing to look back and recall that Mauer was having another monster season in 2013 before the concussion. He could have ended up with another 7 bWAR season, which would have put him in some pretty rarified air: very few catchers have hit that summit twice. (Bench x3, Fisk x2, Carter x3, Piazza x2) A lot of HoF catchers never cleared that height at all (no for Yogi, Rodriguez, Campy, Dickey, Hartnett...) Probably the best catching season no one remembers is Gary Carter in 1982. Fisk got hurt in '79 and Carter took the title of "best catcher in baseball" and didn't give away the belt until '86 and you can make a pretty good argument the only player in all of baseball better than him was Robin Yount (who had an insane season for Harvey's Wallbangers).

Bench in '72 and Piazza in '97 definitely should be in the conversation, but Mauer in '09 was about as good as a catcher has ever been. Just an insanely great season.

I think there's a big difference between someone like Johan (who played 12 seasons and was the BEST pitcher in baseball for 5-7 years) and Fidrych (who only played 5 years, and made fewer starts in his last 4 years combined than his first season). Realistically, Fidrych was a 1 year wonder, and while it was an amazing year (he should have won the Cy too, not just RoY) at the end of the day you can't put someone in the Hall for one year. Fernando is a very different case and is closer to Santana in that he only had a run of about 7 years as an top pitcher...but Fernando wasn't in Johan's class. He was a reasonable pick for the Cy in '81, but it's hard to make an argument that he was ever the best pitcher in the NL again. He wasn't snubbed or screwed over for any awards and after the age of "26" he literally had 1 good season left in him despite playing 9 more years. Johan was simply a better pitcher during their peak runs. Fernando padded out his counting stats with a long period of pitching where he was just another guy. But I think it's fair to look at the guy who was brilliant for a shorter period as being at least as worthy as the guy who wasn't as good, but sustained it longer. Don Sutton was a fine pitcher who threw basically forever...but the only thing he has over Johan was health and he sailed in to the Hall. I'm not saying Sutton isn't deserving...just that Johan is too. When the peak is that high for that long, I'm more than willing to ignore not having an extra 4-6 mediocre years tacked on.

I don't necessarily disagree that Johan might be a fringy HoF candidate, but he deserved better than a 1 and done. The Koufax comps are better than people realize: Johan's bWAR in 12 seasons sits at 51.7. Koufax (also in 12 seasons) 48.9. The JAWS numbers are pretty similar too. If he wins the 3rd Cy (which Colon robbed him of, an indefensible decision) does it make a difference? He wasn't an awful pitcher after coming back from the disastrous injury, but he also wasn't the same guy. If he'd limped along for another 2-3 years and swept up another 15 wins or would it/should it have mattered? Personally, I think it shouldn't. Johan was a comet, but the level of dominance is enough to make up for the relative lack of longevity. He was THE best pitcher in baseball for a 5-7 year period and everyone knew it. There's a place in the Hall for guys who dominate to that level for an extended period but don't have the 18 year career. More importantly, he deserved a few years on the ballot for people to truly look at and appreciate his brilliant career. It's not Johan's fault that Liriano blew out his elbow in 2006 and that wonderful team didn't make the deep run in the playoffs we all wanted. (Johan was terrific in game 1, just got outdueled by Zito) The bats didn't show that series. Should that make a difference? Again, I don't think so. Johan wasn't a good pitcher, he was a great pitcher. He was an amazing pitcher. A signature player with a signature pitch and they should have taken his HoF case a little more seriously. He deserved much better than 1 and done.

Bob Allison comes to mind for me. 31.1 fWAR as a Twin (removing all the Senators seasons, though I'm fine including them) with a terrific run in the prime of his career. Feels like he's become the forgotten man from those great Twins clubs in the 60's. Heck of a player, a big thumper in the middle of the lineup.

welp, that's some hyperbole. Eddie had his lowest BA in three years. Lowest OBP in 3 years. lowest OPS & OPS+. The defense was not good, by any measure. I'm sure the injury influenced his struggles, but I don't see how you can look at Eddie Rosario's 2019 and think that it wasn't a decline from 2018. (unless you think that HRs and RBI are the end-all be-all of batting stats, I guess) Eddie is a good player, and when he's doing well on D and showing a little patience at the plate he can be a very good player, but he's never been an all-star, let alone an MVP candidate. You have to feel good about our OF depth right now. Cave & Wade can both play LF just fine and their offensive production, while different, would likely match Rosario's overall offensive contribution from last year. With Rooker, Kirilloff, and Larnach in the wings it's hard to see the Twins keeping Rosario after this year with his price tag continuing to rise, unless he really turns the defense around and shows much more patience at the plate. I don't see him getting dealt this year, though. If he's crushing it, the Twins will ride that into the playoffs. If he's struggling, they won't get anything for him anyways. The only way he gets moved before the deadline is if the whole team collapses and they're out of contention while he's crushing it. That seems...unlikely.

more than one strength; dude also gets a lot of walks for someone who collects that many hits. He controls the strike zone, which is another strength.

Well, I'm not worried about guys getting "blocked"; that just means they're a trade asset or strong depth, and right now the twins are in great shape at 2B. Arraez gives them a strong starter who could get to all-star level if his D improves and he can keep/add enough power in his bat to consistently keep his SLG% in the .400-.425 range. He's young, he's cheap, he looks like he can contend for a batting title...that's awesome. Adrianza can back up 2B just fine, but Marwin probably isn't an answer there any longer. Maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt he's got much middle infield left in him and is basically a backup at the corners: 3B, 1B, LF, RF. That's perfectly ok, IMHO. Gordon's bat looks ready now, and I'm almost certain he would have gotten the call up in Arraez's place if he hadn't gone down with injury right before the opening appeared. I think he's the first middle infielder called up this year and probably gets added if Polanco, Arraez, or Adrianza goes on the IL. While I'm a little concerned about his ability to hold down SS in MLB, I'm less worried about his ability to hold down 2B. Blankenhorn may be the next iteration of the current version of Marwin, but hopefully he can still play 2B for a while as needed as well. His bat looks like it might be close (I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him at AAA by mid-season) and if needed he'll be in line right behind Gordon. The pipeline looks good to fill 2B right now. It looks like we should get some consistency there for a number of years with Arraez, which is kind of exciting: I really don't want to go back to 1998-2012. 15 years of looking for a 2B after Knoblauch got traded until Dozier arrived. That was 15 years of instability or inability or both. The list of primary 2B in those years: Todd Walker (1 ok year, 1 awful year), the immortal Jay Canizaro (ugh), 4 seasons of Luis Rivas (awful), a Nick Punto sighting (in one of his no-hit years), 2 years of Luis Castillo (competent but on the downslide), 2 years of Alexi Casilla (gah), 1 year of Orlando Hudson (quality!), 2 more years of Alexi Casilla (ok, barely). the years between Knoblauch and Dozier were pretty grim at 2B for Twins fans. I feel much better where we're at now with Arraez locked in and depth in the minors that might actually have a future as opposed to "we got no one else".