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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'm hearing this opinion a lot on the boards, but what we're hearing now is that it wasn't the guaranteed money that was the sticking point on the extension, it was something related to the structure of the incentives. So from a reasonableness perspective, the issue is apparently not the guaranteed money at all. but never let the truth get in the way of calling the Pohlad Family cheap...
  2. jmlease1
    If/when Donaldson gets traded, I suspect we'll see Miranda. probably platooning a bit with Arraez at 3B.
  3. jmlease1
    If you're not enjoying the Jose Miranda Experience, I just don't know what to tell you. I love seeing a player figure things out like this and really seize an opportunity. the question then becomes how it will translate in MLB, where there's no question it's much much tougher. This is an absolutely monster power surge from Miranda that's coming without him sacrificing anything on his K rate, so it's going to be really interesting to see how sustainable it is.
  4. jmlease1
    I would love to know a) what the incentive/escalator clauses looked like, b) the total potential value of the contracts the Twins offered, and c) what was the Buxton counter-offer. And I think it's wise to withhold judgment until those things are known, because without that information we're in the land of wild speculations. For those who think this is just the Twins being "cheap": They used Aaron Hicks contract as a baseline, not exactly out of line for an oft-injured CF, with potentially much more money available. And without knowing what the total package value actually is, calling the team cheap is a bit silly. If the escalator/incentive package increases the total value to $200M are they still being cheap? we have exactly the same amount of information that the maximum value is $200M as it being $100M. None. For those thinking the Twins are just covering themselves with the fan base with low-ball offers they know won't be accepted before dealing Buxton: y'all are already crushing the team presuming this is the case. Why exactly do you think the team is filled with people who think they call bluff Twins Nation into buying this with a vocal part of the community already hunting for them? Besides that, the counter from the Buxton camp hasn't leaked yet. If the Twins were trying to pull this maneuver, they would have leaked the counter immediately to let the world decide if it was reasonable or not, especially if it's wildly divergent from the Twins offer. I want Buxton to stay and get extended, but this is the hardest contract I've ever seen to assess risk and fair value. You have a player with massive ability and terrible health. star power combined with part-time availability. prime years that might never be realized. danger of accumulated injuries creating declining athleticism and an early decline phase. I literally have no idea what Buxton gets on the open market.
  5. jmlease1
    Wallner doesn't seem to have any lingering effects from his time on the IL. The K rate is still way to high for comfort, but he's doing plenty of damage when he does contact the ball. Palacios is going to contend for a spot on the 40-man this off-season, I think. Very interesting how he's rebuilt his standing this season and recovered his hitting stroke after not playing in 2020 and two rotten seasons in the Rays organization. Looks like he made a smart choice in coming back to the Twins, who have clearly worked with him well. I could see him getting a call up to AAA before the end of the season, but we probably shouldn't get too excited about him seizing the starting SS job in 2022 on the basis of a single rebound season. But there might be something there and it was a smart minor-league signing.
  6. jmlease1
    Is this the same wrist he injured in the minors? And did he have surgery that time to correct the problem as well, or was that a rest & recovery move? I love him as a hitter and really hope we're not seeing the start of a recurring problem.
  7. jmlease1
    I agree, the power is legit...but guys who hit .240 in AAA usually hit like .200 in MLB. If he actually becomes Adam Dunn, that would be great...but right now he looks more like he'd be 2013 Adam Dunn rather than prime Adam Dunn...who was a guy who hit .304 in his 4 minor league seasons. Through his age 26 season, Dunn had 3000 MLB PAs. Rooker has 51 so far. It's feeling a stretch to say he's even gonna be that kind of guy, unfortunately.
  8. jmlease1
    I'm rooting for Rooker, but unless he shows he can hit an off-speed pitch at the MLB level and make more consistent contact...then he's a 4-A hitter without a defensive position. I'm all for the Twins calling him up and having him DH to see what he's got, but if I'm seeing him as a K-prone player who might not be able to hit breaking balls whose upside might be late-period Adam Dunn...he's not going to have a lot of value in trade. I'm glad he's coming up. It's a lost season and we need a power RH bat to replace Cruz, so let's see what he's got. But even his work in AAA doesn't scream success in MLB. The power is there, but hells bells, my dude is only hitting .239 in Saint Paul.
  9. jmlease1
    Another day, another dinger for Jose Miranda. He's a delight, and I'm thrilled he's having such a great season. Vallimont is going to be a really interesting prospect to watch. You can live with the walks when he's mowing down hitters like this and not giving up too many hits between Ks. His WHIP is the stat I'll be watching for the rest of the season: if he can keep having outings where it's around 1.0 the rest of the year in AA while maintaining the big K/9 rate, then he's a real prospect who will advance in the organization and contend for a spot in the rotation sooner rather than later. The other good thing is with a K-rate like that, he's a great option to move to the bullpen if he can't make it work consistently in the rotation. Nice floor, interesting ceiling on this guy and should be fun to follow.
  10. jmlease1
    If basically the only real downside to a trade is "We had to give up an old player who was unlikely to be on the team next year and he's a really good dude"...then it's a pretty good trade. Look, I love Nelson Cruz as much as anyone, but we got two AAA pitchers that are considered to be good prospects from an organization that has a deep minor league system and a great reputation for developing pitching. The hate levels are low. The like levels are high.
  11. jmlease1
    Rays have a 40-man crunch every year and are long in pitching prospects. They're going for it this year (as they should) and made a big bid to get Cruz, who fills a huge need for them before anyone else could get him and to get the extra games before the deadline to really maximize his value. They may have "overpaid", but this is where it doesn't really hurt you and why you shouldn't worry about "winning" the trade because you're getting what you absolutely need. Twins give up a great player in Cruz, but he's a FA after the season, he's 9000 years old, and the team is going nowhere. They got 2 pitching prospects that are close to the majors, which is key because they're short on starting pitching right now. It looks like very good value and fit in with a strategy of trying to reload for next year rather than tear down and rebuild. A smart trade for both teams. If the Rays win a title, they won't care what either of these prospect do. If either of these prospects make the rotation for the Twins, they won't care if Cruz helps Tampa win a title. Good luck to Nelson Cruz, a great hitter and class act. Probably the best FA signing of all-time for the Twins and the best DH (not really a position of strength, historically, but still) of all-time.
  12. jmlease1
    I don't think the twins are terribly concerned about blowing option years on balazovic; if he gets to the point where he's out of options and hasn't established himself in the rotation they're going to consider it a failure much more broadly. So i think we could see him in september, unless they have him on an innings limit. The Twins are smart enough to know that there's no real correlation between a jump in innings pitched and injury (Verducci's Law has been pretty well debunked) but since he's never thrown over 100 innings in his entire career, and didn't pitch competitive baseball at all last year because of the pandemic, they may be more cautious. If he can get to 120 IPs in 2021, it will position him very nicely to contend for a rotation spot in 2022. I don't think he'll get excluded from consideration if he doesn't make the leap for a cup of coffee this year, though, especially because we have such a dire need for MLB starting pitching. I'm so impressed with Jose Miranda, who continues to do basically everything right. I'm almost more surprised when he doesn't get two hits at this point.
  13. jmlease1
    Buxton, at this point. I think there's a real chance they get the extension done, which locks him in. Berrios will not do an extension unless the Twins offer him better than Zack Wheeler money...and I'm not sure they want to do that? Because that's what it's going to take to extend Berrios: 5/$130M is probably the starting point for his camp for an extension. What he gets on the open market is a little less clear, but the range is probably $100-150M based on his age, production, and health. And he seems interested in testing that market and maximizing his money, which is absolutely his right. I don't think they Twins are going to be ruled out in FA, but at the same time, they're unlikely to get any kind of "hometown discount". He doesn't seem to be worried about potential injury, and based on his track record, it's hard to blame him. So that makes extending him challenging, because the exchange there is always a little less money for a little more security. I think it's increasingly likely that Berrios is traded in the off-season and they try to get his replacement in the deal. If there isn't a deal they like, they'll bring him back for his last season and take the comp pick if he signs elsewhere...which feels likely in that the Twins won't want to overpay on him and someone else is more likely to convince themselves that they can improve him a bit more and make him worth $25-30M AAV. (This will be more palatable if a Winder/Duran/Balazovic has established themselves as a legit MLB starter...)
  14. jmlease1
    I'm entirely sure I'm all that optimistic; I have no idea what the odds are on him unlocking something else to utilize his stuff more consistently. If he stays the same guy he is right now, he's probably out of baseball in 2 years (maybe that gets extended by a year or so if he changes organizations). You just don't know on guys like this, which is why he's a boom or bust player: if he finds the command he needs, then he probably gets his BB/9 down around 3.0-3.5 and his H/9 to more like 7. Well, if his WHIP is 1.0-1.2, then all those Ks play up a bit more and he's a legit MLB prospect. The fact that he hunts Ks like no one's business while keeping the ball in the park makes him someone worth working with in the minors to see if they can unlock enough command to make him really go. If he was someone who was consistently above 1.5 on his HR/9 in addition to his control issues, I'd be more concerned about his potential upside, but this looks like he really has a singular issue. I'm much more hopeful about someone where you're trying to fix one problem (even a big one) than two or three.
  15. jmlease1
    Vallimont is one of those fascinating prospects that's very much in the boom-or-bust category. If he figures out something that cuts down on the walks, refines his command, etc then he could be a monster. because someone who can hunt up K's like he does has the talent to make it to The Show. He's proven he can simply overwhelm A-ball hitters. Right now, against hitters with a more refined approach and better control of the strike zone, he's wobbling. Guys are waiting him out more often, either drawing the walk or sitting on the "get over" pitch that sails right through the middle of the zone. If he finds a level of command that lets him roll on AA guys like he did in A-ball, then at worst he's a relief option. He's not particularly homer-happy, but he needs to be able to drive the WHIP back down to find sustained success, and with his K's it doesn't really matter where he subtracts the baserunners from: fewer hits, fewer walks...don't care. He can handle a few baserunners with his ability to hunt up the K, he just can't handle this many. But he's interesting and worth watching. This is where good development can turn a flyer into a real prospect, and I'm fine with the twins taking chances on players like this.
  16. jmlease1
    Miranda has exactly the same number of games in AAA that Arraez did in 2019. I think if Donaldson gets moved you'll see Arraez as the primary at 3B, but Miranda might still get a shot this season.
  17. jmlease1
    Telis is 30 years old and has basically never hit in several stints in the majors. In five different seasons he's put together an OPS of .565. He's an organizational depth player with very little upside and he's not on the 40 man roster, so he's not coming up unless things really go sideways at catcher. Useful to have at AAA and work with our young pitchers, but not a prospect. Should he get one more shot to show he can hit in MLB before being consigned to this kind of role? Maybe, but it's hard to say he should be playing for MN over Jeffers and Rortvedt who are significantly younger and have a better chance to stick. Yes, Rortvedt can't hit a lick right now, but the D is excellent and getting him the ABs now in a lost season is good to see if he can be a legit platoon/backup option in the future. The platoon aspect is important, because Jeffers looks like he might be a guy who abuses LHP and gets taken to school vs righties.
  18. jmlease1
    Nice results from Balazovic. I really don't care if he moves up to AAA this season or not; I just want him to get starts and get innings. He's never thrown 100 innings in professional ball in his entire career, so what he really needs is to pitch and I don't know that it matters much whether it's at AA or AAA. Hopefully he can get another 12 starts or so and get over that 100 innings this year. The Jose Miranda Explosion (which may be the name of my 14th album at this point) just keeps on rolling. He's having such a great season and it's hard not to think he's going to be a big part of the Twins future. If Donaldson gets traded, it'll be a lot easier to use all that savings for pitching help with Miranda ready to take on 3B (along with Arraez, of course). What we're seeing out of guys like Winder, Balazovic, and Miranda makes it a lot easier to think about re-loading rather than going into a full -on tear down and rebuild.
  19. jmlease1
    Rooker has prodigious power, but unless he learns to recognize and at least defend himself against MLB-quality breaking balls...he's a 4-A player. he can hit fastballs and will punish plenty of fastballs in the zone, but he's got to do better in laying off breaking stuff out of the zone and being able to react to breaking pitches in the zone and doing damage with them. Because next time he comes up to MN (and i do believe he deserves another look), he's not going to see hardly any fastballs at all. If you think Larnach and Kirilloff are seeing a heavy diet of breaking stuff...The Brent Rooker Experience will be substantially worse until he proves he can manage it. He's feeling a lot like Miguel Sano, pt 2 at the plate...and he's of no value in the field. I can only imagine how twins fans will react to another righty slugger racking up 4K nights... the guy that's really exciting is Jose Miranda, who has clearly unlocked something this year. If Donaldson gets dealt (no sure thing, but it seems to be in the works), I'd love to see Miranda get a good look to see if he can be a contender to fill the spot in 2022. He could platoon a bit with Arraez to protect him a little and the approach he's taking at the plate is pretty fantastic. I love how he's continued to crush it after promotion to AAA.
  20. jmlease1
    have to wonder if this is a guy who they think can increase his velocity under the Wes Johnson Program and have his stuff play up even more in the pros.
  21. jmlease1
    If they can develop that change up for him, then his fastball is really going to be tough. That's some serious gas he's got going. High school pitchers are a risk, but every draft pick is a risk especially pitchers. He seems worth a chance and I do have some confidence in the development process the Twins are establishing, and he'll definitely be at less risk of throwing 140 pitches in a bunch of regular season college games and having Tommy John at 21. Looks like a good pick at that part of the draft. Now the work begins.
  22. jmlease1
    I'd be a lot happier if 8 of our top 20 prospects weren't out with an injury. This is a hugely important developmental year with last year having been a zero for so many players. If a prospect gets limited/no PT this season that's essentially 2 lost years. Yuck. Glad to see Sabato starting to make consistent contact and getting some results. I've been worried that he might bust, because it doesn't matter how good your strike zone judgment is if you can't swing the bat and get some hits. I've got a little more hope now, looking forward to seeing how the rest of his year goes. Julien is getting interesting as a prospect. Looking forward to tracking his progress now that's he's been promoted and playing against pitchers with a more sophisticated approach.
  23. jmlease1
    7 of the top 20 on the injured list, 2 are major injuries and there's a couple more elbow injuries in there to pitchers which make me nervous. That's...not great? Can we just get some health, please? Hope Sabato's game is a sign of the breakout he needs, because so far this season his talent and projection are not matching up to the production. Miranda is crushing it. Great to see his breakout and his ability to sustain it with a change in level, that's a great sign. I think he gets a shot in MLB this season if Donaldson is traded and his evolution as a player makes it a lot easier to move on from Donaldson. Would I feel comfortable with 3B being held down by a combination of Miranda and Arraez next year? I think I would. He could be a legit part of a lineup core with Kirilloff and Larnach.
  24. jmlease1
    3 of the top 4 are injured. Yuck. That's the worst news for this group and the Twins prospects. There's huge talent here, but the Twins desperately need one of the three starters on the list to show out as the next Berrios and sooner rather than later. Right now...not sure you can pencil any of these guys in for 2022: Duran has shown issues with control & health, Balazovic hasn't been consistent, and Canterino hasn't pitched above A-ball. They could all be the core of the Twins rotation in 2023 or 2024, but none of them are likely to pitch in MLB in 2021, which makes it hard to be certain of them for 2022. Love Jose Miranda. Boy, he's risen fast, but he's proving it at every step. Sure seems like he's found an approach that works, and he might be getting a taste this season if Donaldson is traded.
  25. jmlease1
    game like this is why I don't want the Twins to deal Berrios, regardless of the return he might bring. He's terrific. I'd rather have him in the rotation next year and try to sign him long-term when he hits free agency.
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