jmlease1

Not that big of a question, really. I love Glen, he was terrific for us once he moved to the 'pen, but Nathan was significantly better and more dominant. Nathan deserved a longer look, I think he's Hall-worthy. He doesn't get the recognition because he overlapped with rivera, the best of all-time. (It's like Tim Raines, who was always great, but people forgot about him because he overlapped with ickey, who was the greatest leadoff man of all-time)

Because then it becomes an old boys club where marginal players get in because a bunch of their pals are voting? There's a whole lotta marginal (at best) HoFers who are in because they were Friends of Frankie Frisch who basically stacked and ran the old veteran's committee. It's essentially how Harold Baines got in, and he's simply not deserving (a very good hitter, but never put up a truly great season, and for most of his long career was just a quality starter. The PED is complicated for a lot of people, and I'm ok with pushing the main culprits off the ballot as we try to get a little better historical context on the whole thing. there are reasonable arguments to put in guys like Bonds & Clemens who were truly great players even before the cloud of PED descended, but the idea that anyone who thinks they cheated and should be excluded is just some moralizing hypocrite is going too far, especially by the people who go on to claim that well, we can't really prove anything. I really don't think their exclusion has anything to do with whether Bonds was surly with media; it's people honestly trying to square how to handle the PED era, which really was a mess. And if you view it as cheating, which many not unreasonably do, then figuring out that context for something that is supposed to be one of the highest (and last) individual honor you can achieve in the sport isn't always easy. manny ramirez was one of the most feared hitters of his day, but was also caught using PEDs after a clear rule had been established and testing protocols instituted. He was also a headcase and a pain in the ass who quit on his teams. Alex Rodriguez was the best SS of his generation, combining elite offensive production with excellent defense at a premium position to be one of the game's signature players. He was also caught violating the league's PED rules after they had been clearly delineated and testing was put into place and was suspended for an entire season. How much do you weight the fact that they knowingly and intentionally broke the rules, ones that were installed in part because of players like them? It's simple to say, "meh, who cares, all that matters is the numbers" but simple isn't always right. And if it's just about the numbers, then why have a vote at all? Why not just induct the top 4 players by WAR every year, or some other static metric, or combination of metrics? Some subjectivity is part of what makes the game and the hall fun. It's part of what expands our minds on how we look at and think about the game as well. It drives innovation and experimentation, and that's good too. How much does leadership matter in a sport like baseball which is the least interactive of any of the "Big Four" sports (football, baseball, basketball, and hockey) but also has the longest season where interpersonal dynamics can have a major impact. we all know that a player who can play multiple positions has additional value because of that positional flexibility. But how much is that worth and how much impact on the team does it have? I'm here for the arguments about the Hall. Let's never be afraid to have them. But let's be careful of ones where there's a "anyone who thinks that" clause in there...

Because if the strain of playing SS gets him injured again, it's going to impact his offense. That's the bigger issue: he doesn't look like he can hold up health-wise there. The additional strain of having to play the position, the increased athletic demand over there appears to be one that he can't really handle, especially with his bum ankle. Polanco defensively is good at 2B, but average to poor at SS. Healthy Polanco is an excellent hitter at either middle infield spot, but injured Polanco loses a lot of his power production and is a much weaker threat. The odds of him staying healthy are better at 2B. He's better defensively there as well. Arraez is a nice hitter (but with no power) and a useful player, who has bad knees at age 24, and probably can't be counted on to play 150+ games in a season in the field. He's not a good SS either, but there's enough playing time to be found for him as the backup at 2B, 3B, LF, and DH to get him 120 games at the plate again. They need a real SS, someone who can play at least average defense there, not another guy whose best position is anywhere but SS, but "can" play SS.

I'm still on the Trevor Story train. Based on our supposed budget (which I maintain is $10M less than everyone talks about it as, because I'm convinced Twins management will be escrowing at least that much "from the budget" to cover any bonuses for Buxton) we still have the money to drop $25M per year on Story. And a) I think he's worth it, b) I'd rather allocate resources to a high-value player at a premium position than on extra crappy "veteran starters" and overrated bullpen guys, c) I don't see Polanco holding up at SS: I see the move as being rough on the defense, bad for his health, and bad for his bat, and d) I don't see Arraez holding up as a regular 2B with his knees. This move is convenient, but not good. Polanco is not the answer at SS IMHO. If they won't sign Story, get a glove guy in here, trade for someone, something. But Polanco can be an all-star at 2B and we should leave him there. (and frankly, I think the front office and manager agrees with me on this one)

Always go with the heavier weight, lol. It's amazing how long some of the early weights stick on a guy. He doesn't have an elite score on any of his scouting grades, which will almost always pull down the overall even if he doesn't have a bad one. Scouts will always prefer a prospect that has at least one elite tool over someone who is average to above-average in everything. And I understand that, because as a kid advances through the system, if you don't have something elite to fall back on it gets harder and harder for you to master more advanced competition. Hajjar is interesting, and seems like a quality 2nd round pick. If they can up his velocity to the mid-90's consistently without destroying his arm and he can maintain control, then he could move up pretty darn fast. I love the fact that he's a lefty and if really does have a quality changeup that could be fun. It'll be interesting to see if the additional velocity on he fastball helps or hurts it (or had no effect at all, I suppose). The bit of deception in a great changeup is one of those things that's really hard to define, IMHO, and finding what the right differentiation between the velocity of the fastball and the change could be the difference between missing bats, especially if his fastball doesn't have a lot of spin.

A deadline deal might make sense, in part because if he's hitting well (and I think he will) and healthy then he could actually bring back an asset and not just salary relief. But right now there doesn't seem to be any kind of market for him that wouldn't net the Twins anything more than salary relief and a roster spot (and roster spots are an important asset, to be sure) and right now I don't think salary relief helps anyone other than Jim Pohlad, especially since we've done a fairly poor job of allocating dollars to this point as is. The thing on that too is...maybe the team surprises. No expectations, but a pretty darn good lineup, a couple of young pitchers step up immediately, and who knows? Donaldson's bat could be an important part of that. Holding for a deadline deal gives you better options, I think.

The reason people more broadly are down on Donaldson is actually very simple: he got hurt in game one and missed 10 games right at the start of the season. That set the tone for people's perception of him as an aging, injured player for the whole year especially as the season imploded early and his absence certainly didn't help. The reality is, he only missed 17 games the rest of the way, many of which were simply regular days off designed to keep him in the lineup. Donaldson was a very good player and worth the money he was being paid, even DHing a chunk of the time. He's still got the ability to hit well enough again this season to be a valuable member of the team, especially if the team can manage his legs well enough out the gate to keep him playing 140-150 games. And considering where the payroll stands, I wouldn't deal him just to dump salary. Let him split time with Miranda at 3B this year, let the kid learn how to play 3B from a guy who has been one of the best at it, and let him transition to a little more DH. He's a thumper in the lineup and his bat plays, even if his defense is slipping from elite to just solid.

I was fine on the Cotton pickup: low-risk, good reward. Definitely some indicators in his numbers to suggest he can be effective. I think Texas made a mistake in not retaining him, but maybe they felt they had a roster crunch or assumed the arbitration price was going to soar too high. Twins appear to have managed that price aspect well: they're paying him enough for him to want to be here, not so much that they're going to fall into the sunk cost fallacy if he stinks. The bullpen looks pretty decent to me, even now. I'd like to see one more RHP with some high gas as an option, maybe? But I just don't believe in throwing lots of dollars at relievers who are frequently so fungible, and would rather construct my bullpen this way, where you cycle through some guys on the back end, convert failed starters out of your system, and don't overpay on guys that have limited utility. Taylor Rogers is worth spending his contract on this year because a) he's been consistently good for several years, b) there's no guaranteed obligation, and c) he has clear trade value. But I would always hesitate on throwing big money on FA relievers, especially if it's attached to a multi-year deal. There are just better options. Cotton is an underrated signing, I think. The cost is good, there's decent upside, and it's easy to move on if it busts.

Why don't you see him sticking at SS? He appears to have the skills to compete there and of all his tools right now the glove looks the best. The concerns seem to be more about his offensive potential, and if he's a plus defensively, it's certainly easier to absorb a bad bat when it's at SS, even in today's game. I don't see him rushing through the system, but if he can start at Ft. Myers this season and go one level per year, this will look like a very good pick, I think. I'm always less worried about a player's power production a) in general, as I think it's easier to add, and b) for an 18 year old.

It's still a high-profile program, though. They go to the College World Series, their players get drafted, and every player thinks they're invulnerable, so...

You could easily put Balazovic and Winder on this list too.

I suspect the height had something to do with it, and there were some questions about what secondary offerings Petty had, since he basically only threw fastballs in high school. I wouldn't be surprised if California vs. New Jersey had something to do with it: long seasons in CA with scouts everywhere and the hype gets going fast. Jersey? Less so. (Not like playing in Kenosha or something like that, but still) I'm always nervous about picking high school pitchers, but in this spot, it's a smart risk to take. The upside is worth it. It's much scarier in the top five (I'm having Kohl Stewart flashbacks).

If I had to bet, I'd say he spend the whole year at Ft. Myers, in part because of his age and the sophisticated complex the Twins have built up there, giving them maximum resources in place to support his development. Unless he's just crushing it so thoroughly that it demands a promotion to Cedar Rapids. But I would bet on Ft. Myers this year and if he's performing well, more aggressive promotion to follow after that (If he's doing well starting the year in Cedar Rapids, an early promotion to AA, etc). And I'm fine with that. The kid is 19 with a thunderbolt for a right arm. Get him off to the best, smartest start you can at Ft. Myers and it will serve him well to advance quickly through the system. I'd say if things go well he'll be in MLB late 2024/early2025.

we'll know a lot more about how fast he can progress after this season. If he can dominate in a full-season of pro ball, then he could move quickly, especially because it doesn't look like he has major mechanical issues they really need to iron out. But 2023 is pretty unrealistic.

Dobnak is an easy choice to bounce back simply because he should be healthy. A healthy Dobnak isn't a bad pitcher and should be able to slide in as a 5th starter type. I like the Cotton pickup as a bullpen guy because he's cheap, right-handed and has a shot to be very solid. I don't know that bounce back is really the right category for him, because he was pretty good for Texas last year. I don't see him as a starting option; he really hasn't done that since 2017...and he wasn't great at it. I'm guessing Texas looked at his WHIP and didn't think the success was all that sustainable, which is fair, but he seems worth taking a shot on. I think his long-term success in the bullpen depends on two things: whether his reduced hr/9 is a result of the move to the bullpen and his current approach, or a small sample mirage and if he can keep the BB/9 manageable. Bundy is unlikely to be the guy he was in 2020, but 2019 is doable. The 2020 performance screams small sample size. The real question is whether or not he's healthy and if he can keep the ball in the park. When he's keeping the ball in the park at a reasonable rate, he's a decent pitcher who can chew up innings. When it spikes up over 2 per 9, he's in the trash heap. (see 2021 and 2018) He was a decent risk to take a flyer on, but expecting anything like 2020 is foolish.

It's going to be very fun to see what he can do at 19 in A-ball. He doesn't look like a guy who needs to grow/fill-in for his body all that much, which should help him. But he's going to need to learn more about how to pitch, how to set up hitters, etc because you simply can't destroy everyone in pro ball with 100 mph gas like you can in HS. If he can master that changeup then he's going to be destructive. The fastball should play on anyone, and if he's got an off-speed pitch to play up against lefties then he's going to be in really good shape because that fastball-slide combo should be deadly against righties. High school pitchers are risky, but this is the kind of upside play I like to see when picking late in the round.

I've been a huge fan of Greinke for a long time, but everything about him right now suggests that he's at the end of the line. Will he get crushed and be an embarrassment out there? Eh, probably not, because he's such a smart pitcher that he'll still be able to get over more times than he should...but hoo boy. There's just not anything in his numbers (and age is a number too) that suggests to me he's going to find any kind of resurgence or even hold with last year's pace. There's real risk that Greinke is JA Happ, Part 2. The upside is the hope that he can grind out 150 innings at a 4.50 ERA. Not sure I'm excited about that? Now, considering how short we are in starters...maybe 1 year of Greinke isn't so bad while the young guys find their footing. The odds are very good that Greinke will at least start the season healthy and ready, and a short spring training probably won't hurt him as much as some? But this ain't Greinke from 5 years ago and we need to understand that.

I think this is pretty spot on. the utter youth on the international signings is going to keep most of them out of the rankings until they've been in the system for a couple of years, because there's so little to evaluate them on and you expect even their tools to be behind the older players coming from stateside. a 16-17 year old kid is going to have to be awfully special to crack a list like this. I don't think it's any kind of indictment of the organization, which has been one of the more engaged ones in the international market (investing in central america, paying attention to places like australia, etc)

Which is also why Josh Donaldson isn't on this list, even though he might still be a very good hitter and effective player in 2022; between his age, injury history, and salary he probably has negative value as a trade asset and it's difficult to plan on him being a significant contributor in 2023 (even though again...he might be). I'm a big Austin Martin guy: I think the power will come, but his control of the strike zone and ability to get hits is going to play regardless. I keeping thinking about him playing in LF with Buxton in CF and every fly ball pitcher in MLB going "yeah, I wanna play there".

Joe Ryan is already in rotation and looks like a real pitcher. we got him for half a season of a 40-year old DH in a lost season, and added Drew Strotman as well, whose floor looks like "bullpen weapon" and still might make it as a starter. Hell, we even saved money on the deal. Even if both pitchers flame out, it was a smart deal...and Ryan sure doesn't look like a guy who is going to flame out. Buxton put up 4.5 bWAR in 61 games last year. pro-rated to 150 games, that's an 11 bWAR season! That's Wllie freakin' Mays. Of course he's a generational talent. He is a spectacularly talented player who can do things on the field only a handful a players in all of baseball can do. Yes, he's missed a lot of time and one of the most important abilities is availability...but this FO has managed to put together a contract that keeps the most exciting player I've ever seen in a Twins uniform here while protecting the organization if he's not healthy. He's got the same kind of talent that Joe Mauer had before the concussions. You can reasonably talk about him in the same sentence as Mike Trout, who has put up 7 or 8 MVP-caliber seasons in 10 years. he is truly great...and I hope he annihilates the league next year and the twins have to pay him every possible bonus.

I thought about this one a lot, and for me it came to signing Pineda cost us nothing but cash and Maeda we had to give up a legitimate prospect who would have been a solid bullpen piece. I would still do the Maeda deal 100 out of 100, but signing Pineda was a clever move that required some extra creativity but cost the team less, so in terms of front-office moves I credit it a bit higher. The Odorizzi deal certainly could qualify, as we did very well on that one: Odo was ok the first season in MN, very good the second year, before injuries wrecked his walk year...and we got back the prospect we dealt for free (who has gotten back on track with the team to the point that he's a reasonable SS option in the organization again). Can't ask for much better in a trade, really.

I think the moves are correct, but I'd put both of the Cruz moves above the Pineda signing.

I probably would have done the order differently...and I admit I really have trouble knowing exactly how to rank Joe Ryan who is rookie-eligible, but also sort of graduated. So, I'll leave Ryan where he is? the other 4 guys (all of whom I really like), I probably go Balazovic, Winder, Canterino, Woods-Richardson...and then immediately feel bad for not ranking woods-richardson high enough. I think W-R got messed up by the Olympics and not pitching in japan and having all that time off, so I don't take his 2021 all that seriously as an indicator of his real ability. I think he's a terrific pitcher and it's amazing to me that some people are treating him almost as a throw-in with Martin in the Berrios deal. It's a nice top five and stronger than anything we've had in some time. I worry about the elbow and shoulder injuries and I worry that the lockout may impact development on guys that need normal years. these guys got skipped a year of competitive baseball in 2020, had a still semi-goofy COVID year, and now have the lockout following all of that. UGH.

I'm a big fan of Celestino and I think he could be the ideal 4th OF for the Twins, possibly even this season. RH bat is great with guys like Kirilloff, Kepler, and Larnach around and his ability to play any OF spot could be really useful, especially with Buxton's injury history. Really liked how well he played in AAA after getting thrown into the deep end of the pool in MLB well before he was ready. Says some things about his mental toughness, I think. I do believe in his defense, I just think he was overthinking it when he got called up so early. He's a nice player, I'm excited to see what he can do. Sabato is the guy I'm less excited about. While I appreciate his understanding of the strike zone and ability and willingness to take a walk, I'm still very concerned about his ability to make contact. When he does it goes a long damn way, but a college bat with his eye should have been able to do better in low-A, even if it is the FSL. I hope the Cedar Rapids stint is more representative of his ability, but that wasn't a terribly long stretch and he could have just been on a hot stretch. We'll see. I'll be interested to see where he starts the season: Cedar Rapids or Wichita? As we've seen with Rooker, you have to make contact for that power to play and Sabato has little positional flexibility to improve his standing. I can see why someone would pick him over Wallner right now (the walks and power projection are appealing) but I'm not one of them. They look like similar hitters right now and Wallner can at least play in the OF (might not cover a ton of ground, but he's got a fine arm out there) and Sabato looks like a DH who can function at 1B. Maybe the Cedar Rapids Sabato is who he really is (I hope so), but I just have trouble minimizing how brutal he was in Ft. Myers. Julien is really intriguing. I'm not worried about where he'll play if he can keep raking like this; you find a position for a guy if he gets on base and smacks the ball around like this. The K's are worrisome, though. You can get away with it in A-ball when pitchers will give you free ones because they simply can't put the ball in the zone consistently, but the more you advance the less it works. You have to be able to make contact when the ball is in the zone. If Julien can get his K rate down in the 20-25% range, he's going to be a player to watch who will rise quickly. If he can't, I think that BA is going to plummet.

I'm not sure I'd qualify Kirilloff or Winder as "sleepers"; Kirilloff is a top prospect who hit well in his rookie campaign before getting injured. Expectations are high for him. Winder was the Twins representative in the Futures Game and is being touted as a top pitching prospect who is ready to step into the rotation if healthy. I think the expectations are too high for what these guys can do to qualify them as sleepers, really. Moran on the other hand...I'm a big fan and I do think people are sleeping on him. He's still got some things to work on in terms of his command, but that changeup is filthy and will make him effective against righties and lefties and he's going to be a weapon early, IMHO. I kinda think people are sleeping on Duffy at this point: there seems to be this growing consensus that he's tailing off as a player and won't be counted on for the back end of the bullpen any longer, that his velocity is down, blah blah blah. I think he's primed for the bounceback season and while I don't expect him to have some insane strand rate again, I do think he could be a critical set-up man again and have a terrific season.