jmlease1

It depends on how much they want to put Arraez in the field at 3B vs urshela I think? Early on I can see it being primarily Sanchez while they're carrying a 3rd catcher. Once they go down to 2, you may see Arraez (and others) get more time there. It's...fine?

I'm a little disappointed that Celestino didn't grab the 4th OF spot by the neck, because if he hits anything like he did at AAA last season he's wonderfully suited for it. But he didn't, so playing every day in AAA isn't the worst thing in the world. I still have hope for him that he can be a quality bat who can play all three OF spots. It kinda feels like Cave sticking around in MLB camp is just some epic-level trolling of Twins fans. I have trouble believing that they would add him back to the 40-man just to have him around for the first few weeks of the season, even if he has turned in the kind of quality spring training ABs you would expect from a 29 year-old veteran with 4 seasons of MLB experience. If anything the twins are more likely to scour the waiver wire to see if anyone else is going to sneak someone through during last cuts rather than jam Cave back on the 40-man, but there's no question his presence is making some people around here twitchy AF.

Was it, though? You could make the argument that it was a more accomplished rotation going into the season with Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, Happ, and Shoemaker...but the rotation last season was dreadful and had zero depth. Berrios was the only one who was good and healthy (until getting traded) and even Maeda had a rotten start and overall was a below average pitcher even before having to shut it down. We gave 58 starts to pitchers with ERAs of 6+ (ok, I'm rounding up on Charlie Barnes' 5.92). Frankly, it'll take some real effort for Bundy and Archer to be worse than Happ & Shoemaker. Pineda was pretty good, but his various injuries limited him to 109 innings. Maeda had an ERA+ of only 91. I think Ober and Ryan will improve on that (YMMV on by how much). The issue is Berrios was better than any of them (even Gray, who was more like Pineda in terms of effectiveness, even if he was a bit healthier). The floor is higher on the rotation from last year because a) the FA signings last season were so brutally bad, b) the depth behind them was also dreadful (until we brought up Ober & Ryan), c) this year's signings are likely to be less awful, and d) the depth behind them is more talented. Bring up the floor on the rotation and this team improves pretty quickly. Top end starters have more impact in the playoffs, but you don't even get there if you don't raise the floor.

I think this is a really good point. We've seen a few guys come through that had some serious gas...that was also straight as an arrow and MLB hitters can lock in on it in a way that minor leaguers can't. Just because they can throw high 90's doesn't necessarily make them terribly effective. Tyler Duffey has gotten battered around here quite a bit over the last year and there's been a lot of focus on his loss of velocity...but he was still a more effective pitcher than the high heat that Graterol gave LA. I do agree with the statement that the big velocity give a pitcher more room for error, but having an unusual pitch/approach or two pitches that pair really well with each other is also an advantage. I'd love to know if there's enough data to show if there's any correlation to a sidearmers effectiveness in relation to the number of other sidearm guys there are in the league, for example. Of course, if Duffey gets his velocity back up to the mid 90's and spends the season paired with Alcala & Duran each gunning it down...are we really that worried about bullpen velocity? Pitching is about wrecking a hitter's timing. velocity is a useful tool in that arsenal, but not the only one. And I really hate committing big salaries to relievers, when time and time again you see these guys dominate one season and then be just another guy the next. Kimbrel was worth the $16M he made last season...was he worth the $26M he was contracted for over the previous two? (nope)

I think this is the rotation we're going to ride with to start the season. While I would have preferred some investment in higher end pitchers...we also got Correa, so there's that? I don't know that the rotation is necessarily set for the season, but it's feeling like Montas isn't going to move any time soon (and will command a big haul at the trade deadline just like Berrios did for the Twins last year) so Oakland is sitting back much the same way the twins have done and aren't going to move him just to move him, but want some big-time offers. It's hard to know just what that means for the Twins and I feel like with a lot of their most gifted prospects that we would be selling low on them. Our top pitching prospects are almost all coming off injury, Royce Lewis is coming off an injury and hasn't played in quite a while, Austin Martin had some struggles where his power potential has been called into question, so while Twins fans love a lot of these guys and see their vast potential...as trade chips, they're all going to get discounted to some extent by other teams. While I'm into trading for Montas, who is a really good pitcher, it may be that to get him right now would cost a pretty ridiculous haul. We just signed Chris Archer, and his bio is a warning sign on this kind of deal: Archer had a stronger overall track record when he was dealt (but wasn't coming off a peak season) and yielded a big haul for TB, and then things went to hell for him. Glasnow & Meadows each had more value last season alone than Archer did for the past 4 seasons combined. So It's fair to be wobbly about how many prospects you believe in you should give up to get Montas. For Manea, I was reminded of what Gleeman was saying on the podcast this week: how much better is he than say, Josh Winder in our eyes? He's more proven, but if it takes Winder plus another top 10 prospect to get Manea then...maybe that's not all that exciting if you think Winder is ready this season and can be as good right now. Manea reduces risk, but doesn't necessarily make a major improvement in the team. I think the twins will consider being active at the deadline to add if the team is positioned well. At the same time, I do think the "next 5" (Winder, Canterino, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, and Strotman) we have coming up if/when Gray, Bundy, Archer, Ober, and Ryan falter/get hurt is stronger and more ready than the group we had last year? (And that's assuming they run Duran into the bullpen this season) So the thought process, based on where we are now makes sense to me. I think they should have done better to secure higher-end pitching during the early days of free agency, and they deserve to be poked for that, because I think they could have done that and still made the deals that led to Correa. But I think I would rather give the younger guys a chance to make it in MLB over dealing 2 of them for Manea, and I think it's reasonable that the Twins aren't interested in giving up a package that includes Royce lewis/Austin Martin and 3 of Sands/Winder/Canterino/Balazovic/Varland/Woods-Richardson/Duran. (and who knows if right now that's even enough for Oakland, since so many of our best prospects had injuries last season?)

Seems unlikely? And the OF is only "bad" if our starters are missing extended amounts of time: Buxton is an MVP-caliber player, Kepler is a fine defender in the corners who gives decent offensive production, and Kirilloff profiles as an above-average hitter. People need to stop panicking about Cave. He's not on the 40-man, so the only way he's going to be at target Field is if someone gets an injury significant enough to put them on the 60-day IL AND options like Celestino and Larnach aren't ready/working out. He's the emergency backup to the backup, a "break glass" player so that we're not trying to shuffle a Rob Refsnyder into CF and hope that he survives.

Feels like the plan this season is for Gordon to backup the spot if Buxton needs a day off and hopefully have Celestino jump in if he's hitting and looks ready. (I'm personally hoping Celestino shows he's ready right away, because he's a great fit as a 4th OF, IMHO). Cave looks like he's a "break glass" guy this year: we'll only see him if someone gets an injury serious enough to move someone to the 60-day IL which would allow him to be added back to the 40-man. At least I hope so. He hasn't been good in too long for me to be happy about his presence on the MLB squad. I don't think the Twins want to see Royce at CF at all this year; this is the year they want to find out once and for all if he can handle SS. I think there's better odds of seeing Martin float in there if there's a rash of injuries. He can play the spot and should be ready to get his first shot in MLB by mid-season I think. We're better off here than we were last season, but if Buxton gets hurt for an extended period it will hurt. But that has as much to do with Buxton being such an elite player as it does with the Twins depth at the spot.

I'm probably a bit optimistic on the innings, but I do see him as someone who can go deeper in games if healthy. I don't think he's going to be a 3-4 inning combo guy, and they'll try to stretch him out if his shoulder can hack it.

Whether this move works out will really come down to whether or not Archer is healthy. Because he's decent enough even at his worst to hold down the 5th spot and chew up innings for you in a way that the collective disaster of Happ, Shoemaker, Jax, Dobnak, and Barnes could not last season. (that's 58 starts we gave to guys with ERA's of 6 or more. I'm rounding up on Barnes. Sorry, Charlie) Also, the only way Ober or Ryan are not in the rotation this season is if they start the season terribly and get sent down to AAA to get back on track. (Which could happen) But there's basically no chance they're not in the rotation on opening day. I also think there's very little chance of completing a deal for Manea or Montas before the season starts, unless Oakland suddenly comes down in price; every indicator right now is they want the sun and the moon and are willing to wait until the deadline to make a move if they don't get it. Fine: I'll play chicken on that one. My prediction on Archer: 22 starts, 130 innings, ERA around 4.50. Raises the floor, and holds down the fort until more of the next wave are ready. Probably has 2 stints on the IL.

It's funny (well, not all that funny, really), but even if Archer pitches no better than he did last season with the Rays and is just healthier...it'll still be a significant improvement over what we got out of the 58 (58!) starts we gave to Happ, Shoemaker, Jax, Dobnak, and Barnes last season. Of that 5, only Barnes had an ERA under 6 (congrats, Charlie: 5.92 was the best of the worst). That's how dreadful our starting pitching was last season. If Archer can lend basic competence to the group, then he's a decent veteran addition. If he can't stay healthy and can't perform, we can walk away pretty easily. I'm hoping this is a "raise the floor" move that helps us hold the line and let what should be a pretty good offense keep us in games. I'm a big believer that the easiest way to improve your team from being bad to good is to stop giving innings to bad pitchers and ABs to bad hitters. Reduce the amount of time you let terrible players on the field. We had a lot of starts and innings from terrible starters last season. Healthy, Archer should be at least ok. Would I have preferred someone with a better recent track record and greater likelihood of higher value? Sure. But as a raise the floor move, I'm still happy with this. (removing all those ABs from likes of Jake Cave, Astudillo, Rooker, Refsnyder, et al will help too...)

Look, I'm still wondering why they don't shift Kepler over to LF (his range fits nicely there) and let Kirilloff play in right (where his range might be less of an issue and his arm plays just fine) but they seem to have zero interest in that for...reasons? Regardless, the Twins need to get Kirilloff's bat in the lineup and LF appears to be the easiest spot right now. It would be great if Larnach has the bounceback season; I still believe in his talent and it's one of the reasons I didn't want to deal him this off-season (the other being we would have been selling low on a player. I'm always baffled by the belief of some people that the best time to deal a player is after they've hit a bump in their development path as if the other team you're trading with wouldn't be aware of it and adjust their valuation of the player accordingly) I would include Martin on the list of prospects here, even if he's not playing OF right now. There's no question that he can play here and his bat could force him into the lineup. If Miranda takes control of 3B there might not be any other spots open for full-time ABs in the near future if he's not going to stick at SS. I wouldn't hate Martin in LF in 2023 if Kirilloff shifts to 1B and Larnach is still scraping.

It's not a high impact move, but it is some decent insurance with Dobnak still fighting injury. I think I like Archer as a reclamation project more than Cueto right now? If Oakland is asking for the sun & the moon for Manea and/or Montas, then this seems like it might be a better decision than selling low on some prospects and giving up a load of capital. The contract certainly is one that makes sense. Might as well try this move now rather than hope to get a sensible deal from Oakland. If Archer can stay healthy, he could be a quality pitcher to chew up some innings. Worth a try and not too hard to move on from if he craps out. Buys us a little time so we don't need to jam Winder or someone else in before they might be ready, especially since it's starting to look like they're planning on having Duran pitch out of the bullpen?

Here's mine, based on who is currently on the roster and who I think is most likely to be starting: Buxton (CF) Polanco (2B) Correa (SS) Kirilloff (LF) Sano (1B) Kepler (RF) Jeffers (C) Arraez (DH) Urshela (3B) Obviously there's some opportunity for movement. Arraez could easily be flipped with Kepler and so could Urshela and Jeffers (I figure Urshela might fit a bit better hitting in front of Buxton, but YMMV). This is a standard lineup, independent of pitching matchups. If we choose to stack RH vs LHP or vice-versa, it can and would change. I'm a big fan of Kirilloff and I think he can really hit if healthy and his LH bat behind Correa would play nicely. That said, Correa doesn't have big splits between LHP/RHP (part of what makes him so valuable) so there's a lot of options. But to me the best 4 hitters on this roster Correa, Buxton, Polanco, and Kirilloff in some order (Arraez is no more than 5th to me; his OBP is great and he will rack up hits, but I really don't see him hitting for significant power basically ever and his knees will keep him from adding much on speed too). I'm sure we're going to see more than a few games with Sanchez dropping in at DH and Arraez playing 3B as well. But this is the lineup I'd run out.

Yeah, I have to think that Palacios falls into the "depth" category for this year? He could be an interesting utility option for the Twins going forward as they've done a nice job reviving his career. There's no question, this is a big year for Lewis: if he gets in a healthy season and looks like he can both hit at an advanced level and stick at the toughest defensive position on the field (catcher is a closer second, IMHO) then that really put the Twins in a lot better shape for it to matter less what Correa does. If Correa has a major injury then the team is in the same boat that a lot of teams are in if one of their best players goes down: in trouble and scrambling to fill. Gordon or Urshela can fill in for the short term, and Polanco could slide over if there were no other reasonable options...but it would be a huge loss. But that's the way it usually goes when stars go down: it's a huge loss. You simply can't expect the Twins to have someone ready to step in at every position and replace the production and ability. If they can do it at 3-4 positions then you're doing pretty well, right? Right now it looks like our best depth is at 2B, 3B, OF (I still believe in Larnach, and Martin is close to ready IMHO). If we lose an all-star at SS it's probably going to hurt us a lot. But that's the way it goes.

Nice that they think that highly of Henriquez; a good reminder that the Garver deal wasn't just about SS acquisition. Steer is an interesting prospect; if he can trim back the Ks a bit and maintain the power he can be a quality asset. Glad to see others find him interesting too.

I never know what to think about spring training results. you can't count on them to be predictive of how a player is going to do during the year, but at the same time if a guy isn't getting results it makes you very nervous at best. I hope Ober & Winder are looking strong and healthy. I still want the Twins to sign (or trade for) another pitcher, but both of those guys are going to be important to the Twins this season. It'll be great if Polanco gets out to a fast start this season; he was pretty rough out the gate last year coming off the injury,

There's no real problem with depth for 3B: Urshela & Arraez can handle the position right now in MLB with no real questions, Miranda looks ready even if he doesn't have MLB experience yet, Martin is coming up through the minors so thinks look fine right now. The only real issue is we don't know what kind of offensive production we're going to get out of Urshela, so for now there's a real potential downgrade from Donaldson. The projection systems tend to have him falling about the midpoint or maybe a bit more between his 2019 season and 2021, and that seems pretty reasonable, which gets you solid starter numbers but nothing exceptional. Arraez's lack of power limits his upside, but he's in a similar boat. Between the two, it's fairly likely we'll get good production. What I want to see if Miranda seizing the job with a vengeance. He'll have some struggles, I'm sure and is definitely more of a bat-first player at this point, but the upside is much higher. Will he match Donaldson's production from last year? Maybe not yet...but I think he could get close. Urshela feels better suited to more of a utility role (and I'd be happy to have him be a defensive replacement for Miranda at time too) and with arraez hitting lefty, you could protect Miranda against some of the toughest RHP as well. I think there's enough ABs in there for everyone? It's also important to remember when thinking about replacing production that Donaldson played less than 100 games at 3B last season and his defense was starting to slip some as he becomes less mobile. but I think Miranda will be the 3B of the future for us and will be a fine player. Maybe Martin comes charging through and takes it from him, but I'm happy to worry about that when it happens. Depth looks good for this season with multiple players that should be able to handle the job. Maybe Cavaco starts to get it together and becomes the next guy?

Lot of good here. The biggest criticism is how much better can it get? Can't be mad about that. It'll be interesting to see how Polanco does with a new double-play partner, and if there's defensive improvement (hardly an outrageous proposition for a player coming off his first year in MLB at the position who is in the prime of his career to add a little on that side of things) then he should be contending for an all-star spot easily. I'll be interested to see where his BABIP lands at the end of the season; last year he was 25 points below his career average and he'll be an interesting case study to see if it's just a little bad luck or his evolution in approach to put more power into his offensive game. Polanco was also part of the Legion of Slow Starts last season that help doom the team; it'll be very interesting to see how he does out the gate this year. (as a switch hitter, he's even more valuable; you can slot him in wherever you want in the top half of the lineup.) he's a heck of a player and that extension is looking better all the time. I like the depth at this position, even if a lot of it is coming off players who have failed out (or might fail out) at SS. We have a lot of guys in the system and on the team that can jump in at 2B if Polanco goes down. None of them are likely to match his performance (at least not right away) but that's because Polanco is an all-star caliber player and there aren't very many teams who have those guys sitting on the bench. hip-hip, Jorge!

well, don't get your prescription filled just yet: I'd guess Kirilloff is more likely to start in the OF and get time at 1B when Sano needs a break or is at DH. I wouldn't expect Kirilloff to spend much time on the bench at all when Sano is in the field.

well, you can't really expect to go into the season having a clear backup to the backup at every position? Sano is the starter, Kirilloff is the backup, and if both of them go down (or are totally ineffective) then they'll probably look at Miranda (who has gotten a little time there but not much, but could probably handle it), Sanchez (who hasn't played there, but would give a big target to throw to and might be able to handle it), or Urshela (who if he can backup SS almost certainly has enough glove to survive at 1B) for this season. Hell, Kepler could could shift down there in a pinch if they don't want to let Rooker on the dirt. They've got some guys that could spend some time there. Next season they'll probably be looking for a backup/platoon option if Sano moves and Sabato isn't ready, but there's always a few of those decent hitters/ok defenders out there on the FA market that you're happy to pay $5M in FA, but not $8M in arbitration. So while we don't have a hot prospect buring up the minors right now...1B options are available.

Depth chart looks fine at 1B. We'll see whether Sabato is a real player and might eventually contend for time (I'm a little skeptical because he was so bad in low A as a college player entering the pros; instead of dominating younger competition, he was trash and got a promotion on scholarship. To be fair, he ran with it and lit things up in high A, but it's a smaller sample size of success.) It'll be a little interesting to see what happens with Sano after this season, but the Twins are in good shape. If Sano has a great season, they can run it back with him for another go. If he's just ok (or worse) they can move on. And there are FA options on the market every year for guys who can play at 1B. I think Kirilloff is going to be a terrific player as long as that damn wrist holds up.

seems like a good fit to be part of the reliever churn as they fill out the back of the bullpen...and maybe he can be something more? Fits with my theory of bullpen building, so I'm good with it. We have guys on the back end of the 40-man that can be dropped, but more importantly, maybe a few guys on it go away as part of a deal for a starting pitcher?

The problem I have in giving up anyone off this top 5 list is that for 3 of them we would be selling low. Ryan isn't going to be traded because then we're just upgrading a starting slot, not filling one. Miranda is the only one we would be selling "high" on, and there seems to be a perception (manufactured, perhaps, by teams hoping to get him cheaper?) that his season might have been a fluke. Martin, Lewis, and Balazovic are all coming off seasons where they had varying degrees of injury and difficulty, and when you sell low on a prospect it usually means you're adding in more guys...which increases the odds of the whole thing backfiring on you. I'm happier moving prospects that are rising, like what we did with Petty. He's a terrific talent, but could have a ton of bumps in the road. But the potential projections on him are terrific. All of the guys on this list are getting downgraded to some extent because they're close to the majors (or already there) and prospect evaluators almost always rank potential over actuality. Because you can always talk yourself into projecting development. The reality is, you should value guys that are closer to the majors more, because there fewer obstacles in their development path and you should know more about who they are and will be as players. But it doesn't seem to work that way...

I'd prefer to keep Duran in the rotation and have him working in AAA as a start to get ready for a first call-up as a MLB starter. We're going to need additional starters during the season even if we sign/trade for another guy in the rotation; you just don't get through a season without needing starts from 8-12 pitchers. Duran seems perfectly situated to be a reinforcement this year. Let him work that way and see if he can stay healthy for a season and let him seize the opportunity when it comes. Yes, you can move someone back into a rotation after testing them in the bullpen (Thank you, Johan) but it's really hard to do successfully in the same season I think and the Twins are going to need players like Duran, Winder, etc to come up and start IMHO. If we're going to send someone to the 'pen, I'd vote Strotman, who also has a plus fastball and might be better suited to the bullpen anyways.

So...2 MLB starters (right now, Arraez is starting either as our DH or 3B and Kepler is still our starting RF) one under team control and one with a team-friendly contract, our best starting pitching prospect (#4 overall), two more of our top 20 prospects, AND another pitcher? For Frankie Montas? Talk about buying high.