jmlease1

Workhorse is a great description of Frankie Viola. 10 straight seasons of at least 200 IPs, he was basically guaranteed to make 35 starts every season. Once he figured out that changeup, he really came into his own. I was bummed when he left, but that was a fine trade for the Twins in bringing back Aguilera (one of the best relievers in Twins history) and Tapani (who was another workhorse who had his best year at the right time to help the team win a title). Viola had Tommy John back closer to the dark ages of the procedure; now, with his bulldog attitude and modern methods I bet he would have been able to make that comeback and have a longer & better run in his late 30's. Fun pitcher, interesting guy. Always happy when he comes back to MN and ducks in for a Twins broadcast.

Wallner definitely has talent and deserves his prospect status; when he hits the ball it goes a long way and he gets on base enough and makes enough contact to be a force in a minor league lineup. But that K-rate scares me. If he's whiffing that much in A-ball, it doesn't really bode well for his ability to continue to make hard contact as he rises through the system and more importantly in MLB. Rooker has really struggled because of just this problem (his limits as a defensive player hurt him as well, and it does sound like Wallner is more of an asset there...but Wallner still looks like he tops out as "ok as a corner OF"). There's been a lot of sturm and drang over Austen Martin's lack of power production in AA, but it's easier to add power to a guy who can get the bat on the ball at all times and really control the strike zone then it is to add contact to a guy who whiffs a lot. Plenty of history of players adding patience at the plate and drawing more walks as they progress in their careers too, but how many went from being high K guys to good contact? I like Wallner, I'm rooting for Wallner, but I really want him to get that K-rate down to something more manageable and projectable. I'm actually really enthusiastic about Celestino next year. I feel like they'll probably start him in AAA, but if he can continue his hitting success from last year in AAA when he returns to the majors he looks like an almost perfect 4th OF for the Twins. He was called up way too soon last year and wasn't ready for it, but rather than let it implode his season he did a great job of getting back on track when he went back down to AAA, which is where he should have spent most of his time last year anyways. Feels like he's being forgotten about a little because he struggled so badly at the plate when they hauled him up to MLB in utter desperation, but I think he's going to be really valuable especially with Buxton's injury concerns.

Those are the most likely, but I thought they were allowed 8 total, so I suspect much like the Giants they'll rotate guys through the dugout a little with maybe Diaz getting the most time (since his title does actually say "bench" in it).

16 Gold Gloves is almost incomprehensible. I wonder if he has them all lined up in his house. Congrats to Hall of Famer Jim Kaat, a heck of a player who was effective for a ridiculously long time and has been a wonderful ambassador for the game.

I'm trying to think of another twins player that rose so high and fell so far in terms of fan esteem. A great player with the Twins and the 1991 season was magical, with Knoblauch as a huge part of it. Tough ending.

I'd be in on Rodon, because he's shown the ability to be a frontline guy when healthy. (I would also want the Twins to bring back Pineda, who has also been a quality pitcher when healthy for the Twins) The one good thing about where we are with young pitching getting close to being ready for MLB is we're better situated than some to overcome potential injury from guys like Rodon and Pineda. We have a series of arms in the high minors who you would feel ok about calling up to fill in when one of those guys hits the IL, rather than trying to count on them to carry the load in the rotation from day 1. But they actually have to pay the money and sign someone. Backing up a rotation of Rodon, Pineda, Bundy, Ober, and Ryan with Dobnak, Winder, Duran, Canterino, Strotman, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, and Sands could definitely work. There's plenty of risk in it from a performance level and a lot of variance built into that, but it could also set you up for some time with your pitching pipeline. But they have to sign Rodon and pay the money. I like the Twins pipeline for pitching right now: there's a lot of talent in there. But every, literally everyone knows that you can't expect to add two more of those rookies to rotation out of spring training and expect to compete.

I think it's fine to consider Lewis as a trade chip at some point, but right now I wouldn't. I agree with everyone who is looking at him and thinking that we would be selling low on him at this point, and I'm not terribly interested in dealing someone with elite tools like that without getting a serious return, and right now I don't know if we'd get that. I'm sure there are smart teams nosing around looking to see if they can pry Royce loose in a deal for a starting pitcher, but do we really think anyone is looking at him as the centerpiece right now for a legit front-line starter? Royce Lewis still has great tools, even after the injury, but I'm impressed with his dedication and work ethic. Every report on him this season fighting back from injury was positive and I like guys who have that kind of heart and drive. He's a trade chip because almost every prospect is a trade chip until they make the majors, but I don't see Royce Lewis as being a real trade option this season because we'd be selling low on someone with a massive amount of talent. Think that one would come back to bite us badly.

Hopefully these coaches, will add some more to the club. Having a few more guys on staff does give you the opportunity for more individualized attention for players, so as long as they are all on the same page and working as a team, then I'm all for adding a few more guys to the staff. It's a fairly low-cost means of enhancing player improvement. Giants have been effective in this recently and I'm ok with copying stuff from successful franchises. (since they're obviously ripping this off from the Giants, it cuts against the idea that the FO are super-arrogant and always must be the smartest people in the room though...so what's going to be the reason de jour that this is a stupid idea from a FO that needs to be fired?)

I'm a fan of bottom feeding when it comes to the bullpen. Grabbing guys like this where a tweak to the pitch mix/delivery or they just need some good health as part of a stable of potential on minor league deals is smart business because so many relievers are really fungible from year to year. putting yourself in a position to have options while also not getting yourself locked into the ol' sunk cost fallacy is a positive move to me. The number of bullpen arms I'm excited about throwing $6-8M on is smaller than you might think.

Hurrah, for Tony O and Kitty! Goodness, could Tony hit. If he had come along 20 years later after knee surgery had evolved...but oh my those first 8 all-star years. Kaat got a little respect for the million innings and endless gold gloves. Love it. He's still pretty fun on the mic too. Back in the 70's there weren't too many pitchers still crushing it at 36...let alone having their best season as a pro.

I did, but ERA+ is more instructive: 123, 99, 119, 113, 96...and then he got hurt and I would argue he was never truly healthy again (yes, he made 28 starts in 2002, but after being hurt in 2000, missing all of 2001 and missing all of 2003...I don't think he was right in 2002 either). During that 5 year stretch, he never had a bWAR of less than 2. (No Twins starter had a bWAR of 2+ in 2021. none) Wins don't tell the full story, but ERA+ and bWAR tell a more complete one. Also, if you don't think ERAs were inflated in the late 90's...I don't know what to tell you. That was a scoring-rich environment

Not really? He had several fine years in Balto; he was ok in 1996, quality in 1997-1998, back to ok again in 1999 and then the innings and pitches took their toll and the injuries came. Never the same after that. But he compiled 15 bWAR from 1995-1999 for the O's and frankly was exactly the kind of pitcher the Twins need right now: consistent and chewed up the innings.

I believe Galvis has signed in Japan to dodge the lockout Shane Mack-style. I would love Story on this team, though. His defense is superior and he can hit. I'm not worried about his road OPS; that's going to normalize once he's away from altitude full time (we know that playing in Colorado has impact on not just your home stats but your road ones as well) but even if his hitting stats are closer to his road averages he's still a fine hitter for SS. But I don't think it's going to happen. I think someone offers Story "too much money" and this front office will fold, if they ever considered it in the first place. They just don't seem interested in giving free agents long term contracts for big money this off-season. (the failures to sign any significant starters may be telling) If they're setting a rule for themselves that they're not handing out 5 year plus deals to any free agents, then this is going to be a garbage fire of an offseason, the Buxton signing (which I'm delighted with) not withstanding. Skipping long term free agent contracts protects you against making a big mistake, but it substantially limits your upside as well, and until some of this young pitching pipeline proves out, we need to assume some risk...because right now we're assuming big, unsustainable risk with our starters, just doing it more cheaply.

Any plan that has Polanco going back to SS is a bad plan, IMHO. And as long as Trevor Story is still on the market, I'd be trying to sign him. If they're not going to land a top starter (and it sure looks like that's not going to happen for...reasons? hard to understand, that), then put some money at SS. I'm a big fan of Story, who is excellent defensively (and should be quality there for the next 5 years) and I think he'll hit just fine. I'm not opposed to doing a bridge signing until Royce Lewis is ready, but they have to sign a legitimate defender at SS this offseason because they simply can't go into the season with the options being Polanco, Nick Gordon, and hoping that Royce is ready by midseason. If that ends up being the plan then every time Falvey gets asked a question it should be prefaced with "We know you're a damned liar, but..."

I'm unenthusiastic about trading Larnach because right now you're selling low on him (you can't tell me that his value isn't depressed by his 2021) and that's the sort of prospect play that comes back to bite you hard. Arraez is interesting in that we don't really have a great spot for him, he's got bum knees which could cause him to go poorly, but he's also a proven MLB commodity. I'm more interested there than Larnach, since we're dealing from strength there (Miranda could take his ABs pretty easily I think). Garver would be easier to move if Jeffers had been more consistent this year. But Garver was really good when healthy and it would be hard to lose that bat when you don't really know if you're getting what you think you're getting with Jeffers. Cavaco is another "sell low" move that I don't like. Yes, he's struggled but this would make him a throw-in. I like the Oakland pitchers, but I'm not sure about the trades here. I would think dealing for short-time pitchers like this you'd be looking at some more A-ball guys for Oakland to replenish their system rather than swapping out guys who are about to get more expensive?

Eh. he's doing a little PR work since the owners locked out the players and it's being reported that way (accurately). He doesn't care if it makes the players mad, they already hate the owners and management anyway. He's just trying to get some people riled up against the players so it's not all "the owners are greedy bastards!" If he can get people to be as mad at the millionaire players as they are at the billionaire owners, he wins this round on PR games. The owners are a bunch of contemptible greedheads, generally, who give zero Fs about the fans or even "the franchise", really. They also know they can wait longer than the players, because they are very very rich especially if they stop paying the players. They'll even start furloughing the rest of the staff and blame the players for that too. Despite being frequently despicable, they won't be entirely wrong about everything. But everything that Manfred says will be carefully wordsmithed so that it framers the players in the worst light and the owners in the best. everyone involved will care deeply about the game and the fans...right until it costs their side money. The fans have no friends in this fight; we will be lucky to have allies of convenience, on occasion.

Look, I'm not going to pretend the owners are an aggrieved party here. They've been doing very well, and want no changes because right now things favor them overall. That said, Manfred isn't wrong in the points he's choosing to make. All of these changes would create competitive balance issues (some more than others). Reducing revenue sharing? When there's already a huge problem with relative imbalances between franchises? Oof. Obviously, Manfred is just trying to get some marketing out to start the finger pointing...but he's not wrong about this particular set of things in this framework. Whether or not how they impact competitive balance also isn't the only thing that matters, either...

Meh, I'm less worried about the bullpen, and the fact that Rogers and Duffey are FA at the end of the season is a non-issue to me for this season. A bullpen of Rogers, Duffey, Thielbar, Cotton, Moran, and Jax is a pretty good start. Bring back Minaya at a good price and find another projectable RHP to drop in there and we're looking at what should be a solid bullpen, but also one where there are very few scholarships and guys who aren't performing can be sent back to AAA or cut as they dig for more guys who can make it work. (this is basically the rays strategy every year, and considering how fungible 2/3 of relievers are, it makes a lot of sense) But for any bullpen to survive, they'll need innings from the starters and we're nowhere near that yet. If we make a good trade for one of Oakland/Cincinatti/Arizona's quality starters, I'm going to feel a lot better about taking a flyer on Dylan Bundy.

Kershaw ain't coming here. Stroman ain't coming here, sadly. I would like Rodon, but that can't be the top move. If the pitching reinforcements are Rodon, Bundy, and Pineda, then I'm not impressed. At all. (And I'm someone who wanted Pineda back) Too many health risks sitting in there. And frankly if they're shopping in the budget bin for all the pitching, then I'd better see an announcement of Trevor Story coming to town, because we gonna need the help.

Context matters. Right now this looks like a "meh" sort of move that's closer to lottery ticket than solid signing, and after the botch up with Happ and Shoemaker last season, the Twins FO hasn't earned a lot of benefit of the doubt that they can knock out a bounce back season. The cost is fine, and if Bundy is healthy and keeping the ball in the park then he's a solid pitcher. He finished the season a heck of lot better than he started it, but he also didn't pitch in September, and it's fair to be worried about any shoulder injury from a pitcher, especially one you've just bought low on. As part of a bigger design to fill up the rotation, I'm ok with this. As a consolation prize for missing on apparently every front line starter with consistent track records of success, this is trash. If every one of the top 15 (20?) FA pitchers sign with someone else, then the Twins damn well better deal for someone or they're damn liars about competing in 2022.

I'm fine with this? Stashing Cave in Saint Paul is fine by me; I just didn't want him on the 26-man. Paying him a bit extra to keep him that way is ok. Megill is interesting, and I think Seth's point is right on: Wes probably thinks that he can improve one breaking pitch and get better performance and consistency by simplifying him down to basically two pitches as a reliever. If he busts, we're not really out much and he's easy to cut and move on from. But there's some things to like about him as a righty reliever, so why not take a flyer and see what he looks like in spring training?

Ellsbury isn't really a good comp, though. Yes, he plays the same position as Buxton, and had some injury issues...but Ellsbury was 30 when he signed the deal with the Yankees and they made the mistake of assuming that his flukiest season where he had a slugging % far and away better than anything he had ever done was representative of his true value. It's also important to note that Ellsbury averaged 130 games a season for the Yankees between 2014-2017; the real problem was he was only an above average hitter in one of those 4 seasons. Gary Matthews Jr signed his big deal after his first all-star caliber season, which came when he was 31. The Angels should have been concerned about the fact they were giving a 5 year deal to a player entering his age 32 season who had rarely been above average at the plate in his 20s, whether healthy or not. Jeffrey Hammonds had some warning signs too: huge batting average spike from playing in Colorado (the splits are instructive here OPS of 1.116 at home vs .741 on the road in 2000) that should have made people wary of his production levels thereafter. He was a first-time (and completely undeserving) all-star that year as well; his contract sure looks like a result of someone in MKE not understanding the ol' Coors Field Effect from back then. The injury history shows some similarities, but Hammonds was never, ever as good as Buxton, healthy or not. There's definite risk to the Twins in signing Buxton to this deal, but Ellsbury, Matthews, and Hammonds were all older when they signed those big deals, and only Ellsbury was ever in Buxton's league as a player. The Mauer comp is a bit better of one, but you can't predict concussions and until that nailed Mauer he was still turning in all-star seasons. beyond that...the Twins are better protected against the risk this time. Mauer's deal was $23M per signed 10 years ago. Buxton is only guaranteed $15M per starting today.

I would have given Ray the deal he got from Seattle in a heartbeat. Hell, I would have trumped it by $5M and smiled. Someone call me when they sign someone, because being "linked" to anyone is meaningless at this point. Sign or don't, but stop trying to pretend a lowball crap offer counts.

The thing is with a lot of these bullpen arms, they're looking at getting around $1M in arbitration, which isn't far off the league minimum. That's pretty fungible if they need a roster spot (trade/cut/DFA) so while they might not make your socks roll up and down, they're also pretty low risk. The riskier one is Taylor Rogers, if he's not healthy (finger injuries can be weird). If he's healthy, he's worth the tender and will be tradable if the Twins season goes south and likely important in the bullpen if they're contending. I'm also not someone who thinks spending big FA $$ on the bullpen is usually worth it, so all I'm looking for there is a couple of righty arms who can compete to add in there. I like a lot of our options in putting together a successful bullpen, despite how much of a mess it was at the start of the season in 2021 (it finished doing just fine). I would bet that we tender either Minaya or Coloumbe but not both, but that's really just a guess.

I'll be honest: the Twins being "linked" to Ray does nothing for me. Should they be interested in the reigning Cy Young winner? Yes. Does it mean anything for them to be linked with him if he doesn't sign? No. Being linked to any of the top FA starters means very little if they can't sign one. Would love to get him. Will not be impressed with being linked to him if he goes elsewhere.