jmlease1

I love this one, but I agree that I don't think the financial work. I'd jump on Story in a heart beat at this price, but until the SS market starts to move there are people projecting Story to get offers closer to $30M AAV than $20M, and I think Stroman is going to go higher too. AZ would have to rate Canterino higher than others. I'm a fan of Canterino, but trying to figure how high he's going to fly is a real question. That said, I like the ambition of targeting a guy like Gallen.

It's an interesting concept, and one that can probably work over the course of a season...but where it might get dicey is in the playoffs, where the vagaries of a short series might make this less viable? That's where you see the highest level talent and elite level starters really show out the extra value. (One of the limitations of WAR has a metric is it encourages linear progression thinking about players; you can't really replace elite value in the aggregate.) But there's also a case that you can make a better and stronger overall pitching staff by being willing to let relievers pitch more than 1 inning consistently to support the 5 & fly guys in your rotation. That might produce more sustainable effectiveness in a short series?

I'd drop Thorpe, Cave, Garlick, Astudillo, Barnes and probably Smeltzer. Would rather open up a spot or two for another prospect than carry these guys who aren't really more than replacement level or AAAA players. Time to roll on. Dobnak I think is probably worth keeping still?

Pudge Rodriguez got close to that threshold, but Piazza made it in with under 60 bWAR. Part of where it's going to get interesting is the difference between fWAR and bWAR when it comes to assessing defensive value. You've got huge differences between those two when looking at guys like Russell Martin and Brian McCann (as noted above); fWAR is very kind to catchers who stay back there their whole careers. I'm just not sure voters are going to look at Martin & McCann and see then in the same class as Mauer & Posey. Molina is an equally interesting case: he'll have a passionate fan base behind him, but so much of his value is tied to his defense, and fWAR would tell you that in many years McCann & Martin were just as good behind the dish. (It should be funny to hear outrage from Cards fans when someone says Martin was as good as Molina...) If there's a loud group that starts in with "these guys were all the same value" then it's going to get really interesting. Will the voters be willing to recognize 4-5 catchers whose careers overlapped to some extent? History says no, but catching is also recognized as being underrepresented in the Hall by many.

Gray is an interesting pitcher. I think he's a very reasonable target for the Twins, and I think there will be a lot of teams interested but those teams will also have questions as to where the upside is. I looked at his home-away splits to see if I could see a "mile-high" effect baked in there, and it's a little hard to find on the stats, because he was pretty even. Could there be that opportunity to tune him up a bit more by using the curve? It would be interesting to know if he threw it less overall because it wasn't as effective a pitch at altitude for him and he really couldn't adjust to only throwing it on the road. (I could see it working that way because if he didn't throw the curve much at home he might have trouble getting a good feel for it to throw it on the road too?) It's an interesting question. I'd say the floor is pretty solid for Gray: he's going to be a solid starter for you who probably won't go real deep into games, but should be effective the first two times through the lineup. The question is whether a new environment and maybe a few tweaks to pitch mix or delivery can unlock something additional for him. He definitely looks more like Jake Odorizzi than Zack Wheeler to me, but that's not necessarily bad: if you get a guy who is serviceable in a down year and borderline all-star in a good year...that's pretty good? And that's kind of who Jon Gray has been/could be.

Ok. Molina was the best defensive catcher of the three, but outside of his 3 season peak from 2011-2013, he never came anywhere close to Mauer's ability as a hitter. Molina only had 6 seasons where he was even a league-average hitter; Mauer only had one where he WASN'T. The last three seasons Molina has been basically as useful at the plate as 2021 Ryan Jeffers; even with a good rebound defensively, Molina had zero business being named to the all-star team this year and he's gotten way too much representation there based on reputation rather than performance. Whatever extra credit you might want to give Molina for continuing to catch at age 38 should be discounted by the fact that he's been below average as a starter for the past 5 years. Posey's resume looks fairly similar to Mauer and wins the comp to Molina as well. Excluding Posey's cup of coffee at age 22, much like Mauer he's been league average or better at the plater (by OPS+) every season he played but one. Molina's defense is great, but Posey & Mauer are so much better on offense that it's not really a hard call.

I think they're both worthy. Weirdly, Posey retiring now actually helps Mauer's case a little bit because they're pretty close comps for each other and there's definitely a lot of loud support for Posey already. If Posey had caught another two season and been decent, you would have more people using the excuse of "didn't play long enough at catcher" to exclude Mauer. Ten years ago, Mauer probably gets dinged for the concussion changing the trajectory of his career. With the voters being better educated on the meaning on that kind of injury, he's less likely to be "blamed" for it. Now, he's going to be seen as one of the great hitting catchers of all-time and an elite player. Plus, the national audience never had the same problem some locals did over him not piling up big RBI numbers (this is known as the "No one cares what Dan Barreiro thinks about baseball" rule). Posey has a great resume too. Tremendous bat skills (a little more power, a little worse of an eye at the plate, but otehrwise very similar to Mauer in many ways) and excellent defensively. Much like Mauer had one big season that was better than anything else and deservedly won the MVP. Similar challenges in missing significant time for injury, but always bounced back with another good season. The knock against Posey is going to be in the counting stats, where he doesn't have any significant ones to hang his hat on, but voters are less obsessed with guys with compilers now. For basically his whole career Posey was considered one of the top two catchers in the NL (and generally all of baseball), and most of that time he was the best catcher in his league (Molina might have edged him in 2013, but otherwise Posey was simply better than Molina no matter how many all-stars Molina grabbed). The 3 world series titles will help him get over the top, even if he wasn't particularly good in the postseason. Both great great player. Both easy hall picks for me.

sort of. Twins missed out on an opportunity to trade for him and apparently couldn't work out a deal for someone they were going to waive. But the Cubs were 1 ahead of the Twins on the waiver claim line. I don't blame the Twins for not giving up an asset for a $10M pitcher they had decent odds of getting for free. Literally one more team passes and they could have had him. Cotton is interesting; I assume the Twins see him as being a bullpen piece at this point? He's got some solid peripherals and might be someone who could make an impact. His results ended up being decent enough for Texas after barely pitching the last 4 years, so if he's sound I have no problem with him competing for a RH spot in the bullpen.

Twins missed him on the waiver claim by one place. I bet they would have grabbed him.

Ron Davis! Make peace with your dear and fluffy lord. Oh, the humanity!

I can see why Cobb might be interesting, but I'd feel a lot better about someone who had a better track record of health. he's only thrown 175 innings in his career once, and he's missed a lot of time due to injury. I don't see him as being a primary target for the Twins, more like a secondary one. I wouldn't be opposed to having Cobb on the roster, but I'd feel a lot better if he was the second starting pitcher they signed right than being the top guy. I'm worried about his health, I'm worried that his uptick in Ks is fluky (it's been 7 years since his k/9 was near this, a full K better per 9 than his career best, and THREE better than anything he's put up since 2014) and as a result I fear he won't be replacing Jose Berrios' effectiveness but will instead be more of a guy with an ERA+ in the 95-100 range that we're paying a lot of money for. I'd rather bring back Pineda (who was roughly as effective last season, about as a healthy, and would be significantly cheaper).

I'd say 2012 did better than that: Duffey & Rogers have been good contributors, and in 2013 Mitch Garver certainly proved himself. 2013-2015 drafts have not yielded much from the top end, which has definitely hurt the franchise...but 2016 is looking like another 2012: Kirilloff is ready for a starting job, Miranda had a breakout year and looks ready to contribute, and Balazovic is developing nicely. Only 20% of the first round picks from 2016 have "proven" themselves (1.0 bWAR or better) so it's really too soon to make any judgments on that class. but one of the reasons we have a different front office is because we had so many busts at the top end for too many years. The current regime has been in charge of drafting and development essentially from 2017 on and so far their track record looks ok, and there's plenty of players that were drafted in-house to get excited about.

Some of this depends on how you categorize breakout? Are we looking for guys that were mediocre to bad who we think might become legitimately good, or someone who was good becoming great? One of the things that made Miranda's year so amazing was he hadn't done a lot before that. He was decent, but nothing amazing in A-ball, and only had one game in AA before this season's explosion. Steer hasn't really had any significant struggles to date; there's been a bit of a drop-off after he's gotten the mid-year promotion, but overall he's been pretty good in both of his professional years playing for the Twins. I don't see him as that much of a breakout candidate in that while I think he's going to hit well at AA (and probably get a promotion to AAA midseason) I don't see him as being a guy who is going to take a sudden and big leap forward. Sabato is a better "fit", since he kinda stunk in low A (a 22 year old college player should not be hitting below the Mendoza line in low A, even if it's the FSL, even if he didn't play competitive ball for a year, no matter how many walks he was taking) but showed something in his move to high A that suggested maybe he could make contact with the ball for something other than the occasional dinger. he's a guy that could put it all together next year and restore his prospect status after deservedly getting knocked down the list. Sabato has huge power and a good eye, but I'll be watching to see how much contact he makes. Cavaco is a guy I think could have that "a-ha!" moment next year where his tools catch up to the game. As a super young player, missing a year of development time in 2020 probably really hurt him and being 20 in the FSL isn't easy either. He's a guy I think could be that breakout candidate in 2022.

It's not unusual for a college player to have a longer swing coming into the minors; the same way that you can get away with stuff in A-ball that you can't in AAA or MLB, there's stuff you can get away with in college you can't in the pros. sometimes I guy can quicken it up and shorten things without sacrificing power and they may have seen that possibility with Sabato. I think we'll no a lot more about whether he's a real prospect or not next season. Lot of guys that really needed to make adjustments in the minors after a year of not seeing competition. Was Sabato one of those? Maybe, maybe not, but the excuse will be gone next year. Wallner has been better to date. The AFL time to date seems to confirm what we saw on him during the year: good eye at the plate, excellent power, loads of Ks. He's going to have to either: cut down on the Ks or take even more walks (preferably both of course) to push his way up the ladder, but there's potential there. AA should tell us a lot about him. If more refined pitchers keep the Ks high, lower the walks, and prevent him from barreling up on the ball...then he's gonna wash out. If he can keep mashing and improve the amount of contact he makes, then he's got a real chance.

It's a really interesting exercise, and not impossible. I'd hate to lose Buxton; would much rather deal Kepler for a lesser return and re-sign Buxton but I understand that part of this is about being radical. If we were making these kinds of drastic moves, I'd much rather go after Trevor Story than Baez at SS, especially since I'm not convinced Story would cost substantially more? I have no feel for how much Kluber has left; that's one of the more questionable ideas here, but the risk is relatively minimal on a 1 year deal. I'm unenthusiastic about Canaha. while I agree under this construct that the Twins need some veteran reinforcements in the lineup...I can't say I'm excited about spending 3 years on Canaha. (If we lock down SS on a multi-year deal, we still might need a place for Austin Martin, who could slot in LF in a year quite well, and we have other hitters in the pipeline.) I might be more interested in looking for someone cheaper on a 1-2 year deal here, especially if the extra $ ensure we land Story.

I'm saying it's easier to score runs with power and home runs are the ultimate expression of that. Of course you can construct a great offense comprised of guys performing like Gurriel...but he was the freakin' batting champ in the AL. Does Sano kill more rallies that Guriel? Sure, because Sano had an OPS+ of 113 and Gurriel had one of 131, not because Sano strikes out. (BTW, somehow Gurriel actually grounded into more double plays than Sano last year). I don't really understand the argument you're making. Is it that Gurriel was better than Sano last year? Agreed. Pretty sure no one is going to disagree with you on that one. Is it that Gurriel will be better at the plate than Sano next year? Possibly, probably even likely, but it's important to remember that Sano was actually better at the plate in 2020 and 2019 and is 9 years younger. Is it that the Twins should add more players like Gurriel to the roster and fewer players like Sano? If we get the 2021 version...sure, if you can find him. But if it's that Sano isn't a productive hitter, then...no. I agree that it's all about productivity, but high average hitters like Luis Arraez aren't necessarily more productive than a player like Sano, because slugging matters too. all of those extra-base hits add up and matter just as much on the positive side of the ledger as the Ks are on the negative side. I'm not going to pretend that Sano is an ideal player; his slumps can be brutal and make him borderline unplayable. But his power is fantastic, he'll work a walk, and can be a productive hitter in the middle of a lineup. Strikeouts aren't worse than any other out, except maybe aesthetically.

Laweryson is taking advantage of his opportunity. He'll be interesting to track in the upcoming minor league season to see if he keeps performing at this level and becomes a real prospect to watch. Wallner is justifying his prospect status. He does a lot of damage when he connects; the only real question with him is will he connect enough as he rises in the ranks to be an effective hitter in the majors. The power plays, but as we've seen with Rooker, if you don't get the bat on the bat enough it might not matter. So far the rest of the guys are not impressing, which is too bad. But part of why the Twins sent these guys down to the AFL was to sort this stuff out.

I suspect the fact that Kepler only played 97 games in RF and 121 overall may have hurt him?

I'm not interested in paying a premium on a "closer". I'd like to see them add a veteran RH arm for the bullpen, but assuming Rogers is back, we've got a guy with experience finishing games and several internal options look to have the ability to pitch the 9th as well. These are some interesting internal options to reinforce the bullpen if/when they need some other arms. Cano is interesting to me in particular, and he might get a chance to compete for a spot in spring training.

Gurriel won the batting title. He hit .319, not .275. (Of course, I always find it "interesting" when an Astros player has a career-best season at age 37 these days, but that's a different story.) Yes, you can out produce Sano while hitting half the homers, but you have to do more than hit .275 and we're not exactly swimming in guys who hit .300 these days. If you're saying we should trade Sano out for a guy who won the batting title...sure, that'd be great. But it's also not going to happen, so what are we talking about here? You seem to be arguing that the Twins need to stop putting sluggers in the lineup and get more guys that hit singles, and play small-ball. In order to actually score more runs than last year (where the Twins were pretty mid-pack, 7th in the AL) you'd need to get major jumps in BA all over the field, which simply isn't realistic. Keep in mind that the Astros & Blue Jays didn't just finish 1-2 in BA, they also finished 1-3 in OBP, and 3-1 in SLG, which is how they finished 1-2 in runs. If we can upgrade 1B to a guy like Gurriel, that's great...but he ain't available. Turning over 3B to Arraez isn't going to improve the offense (Donaldson was about as productive on offense as Gurriel last season).

I'm 100% down with a rotational DH for 2022. Nelson Cruz was great and I loved having the Boomstick, but now is the right time to roll on past that. And I don't think slotting one guy in there isn't what's best for this roster. I expect Sano, Donaldson (assuming he's on the roster), Garver, and Arraez to get the majority of the ABs there (not necessarily in that order). I think that makes sense: it gives Kirilloff and Garver some opportunities at 1B, Miranda time at 3B, and room to get Arraez's bat in the lineup without needing to put him and his shaky D and bad knees in the field. We have the bats to fill this in nicely while putting that money into pitching.

Vallimont is going to be a tough decision. If I've got a bad team I would grab him in the Rule 5 because his stuff plays right now and I can stash him in the bullpen for the season to see what he's got and keep working on his command. But is he worth a 40-man spot for the Twins when he isn't ready to participate at all for them?

Batting average matters, but trading homers for singles ends up being a losing strategy. The math matters here: Cut Sano's HRs in half and get him to that .275 BA requires trading 15 HRs and replacing them with 40 singles. That gets you to a slash line of .276/.355/.391. Is it worth trading 76 points of SLG% for 43 points of OBP? It might be more pleasing to watch, but it's going to take a lot of luck to generate more runs for the team. Slugging is really important in producing runs. You're denigrating solo home runs, but that's a guaranteed run, whereas you need multiple batters to be successful at the same time to generate a single run via singles. There's more opportunities for failure. If Sano is hitting too many solo shots, it's because not enough guys are getting on base in front of him. Essentially, you're suggesting we get rid of Sano and replace him with the offensive equivalent of 2021 Luis Arraez at 1B. I don't think that moves the needle in a positive direction.

Well, let's make sure we're being accurate here. Let's look at the OPS: Mar/Apr .555 May .737 June .787 July .829 Aug .820 Sept/Oct .825 Sano was awful in Mar/April, not all that great in May, but closer to passable, acceptable in June (YMMV), and then good in Jul, Aug, Sept/Oct. He didn't just have a couple of hot months late in the season; Sano had his game together at the plate in July and had already started to round the corner back in June. His first half and second half splits are instructive: .705 OPS in the first half after an almost unfathomly bad start to the season vs .847 in the second half. If Sano can get off to a reasonable start instead of a god-awful one, Kirilloff and Garver will make fine backups while Sano gets some days off at DH and the production should be ok at 1B. Basically this comes down to who you think Sano is more likely to be: the guy who missed on almost everything in the first half or the guy who made powerful contact in the second half. Odds are he was probably a bit unlucky in the first half as well; Sano has a career BABIP of .329, but in the first half it was down at .249. Second half it was back up to .331. Dude makes hard contact when he connects his entire career, so the second half seems very repeatable. Gleeman & Bonnes have been talking about this a fair bit on the pod and I think they're right: early impressions stick. Sano was awful to start the season, so it's easy to keep thinking he struggled most of the year and put it together a little at the end. But that's not really the case, and if you reordered his months a little we'd probably be talking about him differently.

all locks. good players here with exciting potential. It'll be interesting to see where Winder and Sand fall in the pecking order for pitching callups; even in a good year where the rotation is generally healthy like 2019 the twins had 9 guys make starts (I'm not counting Stashak popping in as an "opener") so even assuming the twins sign 2 FA to pair with say Ober, Ryan, and Dobnak...we should expect to see at least 5 more guys make starts for the club, possibly as many as 8. The good news is, we have Winder, Duran, Balazovic, Strotman, Canterino, Sands, and Woods Richardson who could/should all be ready to make their debut in the Twins rotation in 2022. I think this may be around what I think is the pecking order, assuming equal health? Interesting to think about it: Twins starting pitching was a mess this year, but at the end of the day we still only used 13 starters plus 2 openers and whatever the hell you want to call Beau Burrows' outing. With guys like Winder and Sands coming on to the 40-man I already feel much better about our minor-league pitching depth.