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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    well, except Balazovic & Enlow, anyways.
  2. jmlease1
    Overall it kind of looks like an average start: you have guys like Royce Lewis, Cole Sands, and Simeon Woods-Richardson off to great starts and others like Austin Martin, Jose Miranda, and Louie Varland that are slow out the gate. there's a few guys battling some injuries (but not a ruinous amount). Bunch of guys that are doing ok, but not lighting the world on fire (but also not looking lost in the woods). Part of me is just happy to look at the prospect list and not see 6-8 guys on the IL!
  3. jmlease1
    Good game from the Twins, never seemed to really be in trouble. Not surprised that they could win a game without dingers, but nice to see one pop in there. The bombs will keep flowing with this lineup, though. There's a few guys off to a slow start, but it's only 4 games. Not going to panic after one series, and there's enough guys who hit the ground running that it balances out. We were a little unlucky this series; probably should have won 3 out of 4. But that's baseball. It will be interesting to see how they do against the Dodgers, who are a really good team. Honestly, my biggest problem so far this season is how they're (not) using Winder. I don't see much point to having him on the roster if they're not going to use him, and he needs to pitch. If he's just the long man/mop up guy, I'd rather see him in AAA starting. If they planned to piggyback him with a starter, I don't see why they couldn't run him out there in the 6th and let him try and get the last 4 and save the bullpen for day as opposed to letting him gather splinters. But if that's the biggest beef...we're doing ok.
  4. jmlease1
    Evaluators will rarely project a player to be a #1 starter or even a #2, because the flame-out rate is so high with pitchers. It's always "He's got the stuff to be a font-line starter, but until he refines a 3rd pitch/improves his command/gets consistently deeper into games we project him as a mid-rotation starter". It's essentially hedging your bets in an arena where there's always a LOT of uncertainty. (frankly, they're not wrong to do it.) If a guy emerges as an ace, it'll happen in MLB as well. besides, there's still no agreement on what a #1 starter even is? Some people consider a #1 an "ace", a Cy Young candidate pitcher, etc. Others go "is he one of the best 25-30 pitchers in baseball?"
  5. jmlease1

    Twins union rep

    jmlease1 commented on ashbury's blog entry in Left Coast Bias

    1. I think you're right. And the union reps in baseball are often not the biggest stars, but more mid-tier guys, veterans who are liked in the clubhouse and are interested in doing the work. 2. You're 100% right on this. The union will pull out every stop against any team that they think is retaliating against a player for serving as the union rep. Union leadership watches this kind of thing very closely and there are potential very serious consequences for someone who pulls this crap. (hello, Unfair Labor Practice, we'll see you in federal court) Pretty sure this one is just a fluke; Rogers had been in trade discussions last season and there's been speculation about Garver as a trade option for more than a year as well. I don't think them getting moved had anything to do with the CBA negotiations.
  6. jmlease1
    Nice game for the Twins. The power production is for real with the lineup, and we can definitely punish lefties. Really happy for Gary Sanchez, who missed a walkoff by no more than 2 feet the other night, to see him have a good day behind the plate (excellent tag to finish off that great relay from Correa and fine throw from Kirilloff, nearly picked off a runner at first, and looked pretty comfortable behind the plate) and drop a bomb of a home run. I wonder if pairing with a pitcher like Ober, who works up in the zone, is going to be good for Sanchez behind the plate? Regardless, I thought he was respectable back there, and I have to wonder if getting him out of NYC is going to be really good for him. Buxton showed exactly why we signed him to that big extension. Good grief, he's a wonderful player. When he's locked in at the plate, you can't get him out. And there's no one smoother in the OF. Hopefully the command problems from Ober are just him getting into the groove of the season (or warmer weather, or whatever); I was surprised to see him struggling to throw strikes early and not getting ahead of hitters. Hopefully that works itself out. He finished strong, which was encouraging.
  7. jmlease1
    It's exciting to see Encarnacion-Strand get off to a fast start like this. He's destroying A-ball, and is lining himself up to jump up a level quickly. It's good to see a college hitter like him not have adjustment problems to minor league pitching and beat up on younger pitchers. He'll move up quickly in the prospect rankings too. (passing his teammate Sabato quickly at this rate) Woods Richardson was always a talented pitcher; it's been unfortunate that his development track got screwed up by multiple trades, a lost minor league season, and the Olympics. He's still only 21, and I expect that he's back on track now with a real plan for his season that should be consistent (for maybe the first time ever?). He's one of the guys who has been forgotten a little bit but gives the Twins some real depth in their young pitching. (and another guy that I didn't want dealt in the off-season because we would have been selling low on him) Love seeing healthy Royce get it going. Just keep it rolling and let that talent play.
  8. jmlease1
    Last season we went out an got an established closer with an impeccable track record, let him be the primary guy for the 9th inning, and it was an utter catastrophe to start the season. This season we didn't go out and buy someone to be "the closer" and it's gone badly in exactly one game so far. I fear that because last year we had a team with high expectations that crapped out early, we now have a large and noisy section of the fanbase that is going to second-guess every single decision made and completely overreact to anything that doesn't go 100% perfectly. It's been 2 games.
  9. jmlease1
    welp, this looks like it's going to be the Big Overreaction From One Game: "Rocco is the worst! Rocco can't coach my kid's little league team! Rocco isn't a manager, just spits out results from a computer!" Already bored with this take.
  10. jmlease1
    Tough beats for most of the Wichita twins prospects! Looking forward to that crew getting on track, because there's some fun players there.
  11. jmlease1
    Interesting game. Not sure we're going to see another game all year where Ryan has 4 walks and a HBP like that, so maybe a bit unlucky there, but this is going to be the key to his success this season: keeping runners off-base if he gives up the dinger. Because he's going to give up a few. Despite that, Ryan wasn't bad, and the bullpen definitely picked him up. Bats were cold as ice, but I still like this lineup. Was bummed for Sanchez that he missed that last one by a couple of feet, would have been a really nice start for him, but he still had a good AB in the situation and gave the ball a ride. Was fun hearing Bremer go "hello!" when he connected. Duran is pretty filthy. I have to wonder what his best role for the team is: extra innings going two + destroying a team in the 5-7th, or 1 inning dominating in the last three? I mean, fun problem to have, I guess? But interesting idea to think about. Coulombe showed why he got added to the roster, I thought.
  12. jmlease1
    This is going to be an interesting aspect to chart this year. A quick look at SD suggest that while they weren't running out a bunch of great defenders, they weren't garbage either. Healthy the Twins should be strong up the middle with two elite defensive players manning two of the most important defensive positions in baseball. We should have good defense at 3B (Urshela is quality, Arraez is ok) and in RF (Kepler is very good) and below average defense in LF & 1B (Kirilloff & Sano are acceptable out there but not good). Jeffers is a good defensive catcher and should see most of the time. So I think it's fair to say the twins defense should be better behind Paddack this year than SD's was. If his luck improves and the defense is better, then maybe that FIP number comes home. If it does, people are going to be happy, because he'll be pitching more like Berrios than Happ. the projection systems are a little harder to read on Paddack this year because most of them have him pitching out of the bullpen for most of the year. Fangraphs definitely likes him, though: his fWAR in 2021 was better than any Twins starter not named Jose berrios. (I will admit, I tend to prefer bWAR and Paddack was...not good under that measure. But I do think that fWAR is better at predicting future performance than it is at describing what the results were because of how they formulate it...which is promising for Paddack for 2021 performance) Kind of a long-winded statement that comes down to "I hope Szymborski is right"
  13. jmlease1
    Moran and Minaya are two relievers I like to come up when needed. I think both are quality options (I was a little surprised we were able to keep Minaya after dropping him from the 40-man, because he was excellent last season for the Twins (and was a quality reliever for the ChiSox in 2018-19 as well). Good start to the season for Miranda and Lewis. Hope they crush it!
  14. jmlease1
    Gods above, thinking about a potential deadline deal before game 1 of the season? That's incredibly pessimistic about a team that's got a quality lineup and a load of young talent in the system. Do you want the Vikings to punt on first down too?
  15. jmlease1
    Second half of the season the twins 'pen was quality. Overall, it wasn't great because it got off to a horrendous start. but it also shows just how fungible most relief pitchers are. Look at Pagan: in 2017 he was excellent. in 2018, he was below average. In 2019, he was lights out. In 2020, he was below average. In 2021, he was poor. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him turn in an ERA+ of 120-140 this season. Colome was great right up until he wasn't for half a season, where he suddenly turned into Ron freakin' Davis on us. And then he was fine again. It's why a lot of us agree with the philosophy of not spending big money on relievers. Paying big money will "win" you off-season awards and the prediction game, but won't necessarily build you a good bullpen. I liked Rogers, and I was happy we brought him back. But I'm ok with dealing relievers for starters. And I'm not too worried about having enough lefties in the bullpen: Thielbar is quality, Coloumbe was quality last year, and Moran is coming up through the system. If Paddack bounces back, this is a great trade for the twins. If he doesn't, it was a reasonable risk. the thought process is sound here, IMHO. (Look, if every bet the front office makes goes wrong, then you have to reassess, even if the thought process was sound, but so far that's not really the case. YMMV on whether they've had enough of those bets go right, but if you're going to make the assessment, then make sure you count all of them, not just the ones you hated)
  16. jmlease1
    Nothing? I'm sorry, if you think prospects have no value then you've lost your mind. Manaea cost quality prospects. Rogers is an excellent pitcher and fine reliever for the back of the bullpen, but starters simply have more value. Someone like Paddack who is under team control for 3 more seasons, who has shown real success? there's a lot of value there if we get him back on track. he definitely makes us less reliant on Dylan Bundy being good, and there's a lot in his peripherals to suggest that he can make that return to form. The real question Wes Johnson is going to have to attack is Paddack's fastball: it's gone from being a weapon to something that guys are teeing up on, so the question is: does he need to get a little more velocity on it or locate it better? (or both?) Can wes coax something additional out of the fastball, because the changeup looks to be a quality weapon for him. The curve is definitely less reliable, so it'll be interesting to see how his command on that evolves. But Paddack is a talented pitcher with a good pedigree at a good price and the potential to be a solid and reliable arm. The last 2 seasons haven't gone that well for him (which is why he's available), but the last two seasons have also been pretty weird. Hell, even this year hasn't gotten off to a normal start. I'll miss Rogers, but Paddack should help. I'm also glad we're moving on from rooker and getting something for him.
  17. jmlease1
    Solid list of over/unders? Buxton 26.5HR - I'm taking the over on this one. I'm betting on Buxton being healthy, and if he is, then he's going to clear 30 hrs in my book. It's a fair line, because you just don't know if he's going to get in enough games, but I'm feeling optimistic on the most exciting player finally getting that healthy year. Correa .280BA - I'll go the under on this one: high average isn't one of Correa's strength, though it's not like he's a piker or anything. Not an easy one, just a gut check that he's going to land somewhere around .270-.275 Correa 25.5HR - I'm taking the under on this one as well; I think he lands in the low 20's somewhere (and it'll be great), but I just don't feel like the Twins are lucky enough for him to have back to back career years. Hope I lose this one, huge. Sanchez 25.5HR - Tough one, because it's hard to know how many games he's going to play...but I'm going over. I think he's going to get enough run either behind the plate or at DH to clear this one. Sano 31.5HR - Another really tough number...but while I think the whole "he's reported in the best shape of his life" is a classic spring training nonsenseburger, I feel like he's better positioned to avoid the long slumps this year? I'm betting on 35 HRs for Sano, and for a lot of twins fans to forget every single one of them any time he has 3 Ks in a game. Gray 9.5W - I'll bet the over, even though pitcher wins are a dumb stat. I think the twins are good enough to get him there and I'm betting he's healthy enough to make at least 25 starts. Twins 81.5W - I'll bet the over on this one too. The rotation has plenty of questions to answer, but the depth is better. the lineup is playoff quality. I think the bullpen is underrated. This feels like a bounceback team that lands north of 85 wins to me. They were unlucky last year in terms of key injuries but also in that all of their coin flip acquisitions went south. I think they'll do better this year (I like the Archer acquisition; I'm less sanguine about Bundy, but last year we crapped out on both of those kinds of signings.) Bonus over/under from me: 60 or more games in MLB for Jose Miranda (I'm betting the over)
  18. jmlease1
    Lot of fun guys to be tracking in Saint Paul this season. I'd kind of forgotten about Cano as a relief prospect; he's a little wild, but has the stuff to get outs, so could be an option if he can get himself to a reasonable walk rate.
  19. jmlease1
    Does his fastball "stay on plane" though? every report I read on him and the in-game performance you see shows guys getting under it, which I wouldn't expect if it was coming in flat. His barrel rate is a little high, but the hard-hit % is better than average, so if he's able to keep that good control he showed (he's nicely below the MLB walk rate %, which is promising for a rookie even in a smaller sample) he looks primed to be a strong performer, especially as he continues to refine his off-speed offerings (primarily the slider and changeup, I think) which do a good job in changing the eye level of hitters. The statcast on Ryan is really interesting to look at (again, it's not a huge sample). Suggests that he has good command over the fastball and locates it well, the slider locates pretty well, but he still could refine his command on it, and his change has almost surprisingly good command at this point that he locates well. (the curve is definitely the one that needs more work; it's much more all over the place, even if the results were overall pretty good) But if he can continue to spot the change up down in the zone and hammer the fastball up while getting people to chase with the slider...that's a good formula. The deception in his fastball plays up when you're changing the batter's eye effectively with a good changeup or slider. I'll be interested to see if he throws the change to righties this season or the slider to lefties at all. he's got huge pitch splits on his off-speed pitches, and I always find that fascinating.
  20. jmlease1
    I'm generally a fan of the Twins philosophy for building a bullpen, because a lot of multi-year commitments for relievers aren't worth the cash, and outside the truly elite guys, there are huge numbers of relievers that are pretty fungible from season to season. I truly believe in giving young starters who have essentially crapped out from the rotation a chance to move into the bullpen as a way to keep the pipeline flowing, and avoiding paying pitchers significant premiums to be "closers". (I'd rather have our best relievers as firemen who slam the door on a team's best hitters in the late innings rather than holding our best guys back to pitch the 9th) Rogers has been excellent, and part of me is glad he got injured last season and didn't get traded at the deadline (though healthy he might have brought a fine return). He's as good a pitcher as anyone on the roster, and I'm very comfortable with him getting in any high-leverage spot. Duffey was still good last year even if he dipped from his spectacular performances of the previous couple of years; sign of things to come or does he revert back to form? YMMV, I guess. Thielbar has been excellent as a second lefty. Alcala is death to righties and has been improving against lefties. Duran is a beast; it'll be interesting if they class him with Jax and/or Winder to be a multi-inning reliever for the early part of the season or look to him to be more of a high-leverage back-end guy as the season goes on? Smith & Cotton look like quality veteran options, but will be easy to bump down or move on from if they fall apart. there are additional options in the minors in guys like Moran (whom I love with that changeup) or Minaya (who was good for the twins last season) I think the coaching staff will feel a little less bound by roles early in the season this year (they seemed to have locked in Colome as a traditional closer last season) which may also help them sift through their relief corps faster. But I think there's enough talent here to be a quality bullpen.
  21. jmlease1
    Bigger name, but I'm not sure Upton is better than Garlick as a platoon bat; Upton hasn't been a good player since 2018. I'm not sure I'd be all that excited about signing a 34 year-old OF who hasn't hit in several years. (Detroit really sold high on him; moved him while at an all-star level, then he had exactly 1 good season for the Angels before turning in 3 sub-replacement level outings. blegh)
  22. jmlease1
    He's 27. Other than a 7 game stretch in low-A where he was definitely older that his competition, he's never had a SLG% over .500 in his pro career. Last season in AAA was easily his best year as a pro and it's not really all that close. He might be a useful minor league depth option, but he's going to struggle to find a spot on the 40-man without serious injury to other guys who are up the depth chart from him, which limits his ability to get a shot in MLB. Larnach is younger with a stronger overall track record; it would take a lot of recency bias to put Contreras over him on any depth chart. Hard to see him coming up this year without Kepler/Kirilloff landing on the 60-day IL and Larnach struggling in AAA.
  23. jmlease1
    A very good point. Despite a significant injury to Garver, the Twins still only used Rortvedt for 34 games and 94 PAs as a catcher last season. While I do believe that a great way to raise the floor of your team and capture additional wins is to give as few innings to bad players as possible, 3rd catcher does appear to be one of those areas where a) it probably doesn't hurt you that much, and 2) there aren't all that many innings for it to suck up. I know a lot of people are down on Sanchez as a catcher and have pre-emptively decided that he should never play back there for fear of frightening the horses or something, but it may be a bit overstated. It's only been in the last 2 years that the struggles have really gotten bad, and it's certainly possible that the focus from the loud and populous NY media and fans may have messed with his head.
  24. jmlease1
    Rooker crushes AAA pitching. (he did it in 2019, he did it in 2021) He got waxed against MLB pitching in 2021, hurt or not. he looks increasingly like a AAAA player: too good to sit in AAA but not skilled enough to play in MLB. His performance in 2020 really doesn't count: 7 games late in the season doesn't really tell you anything other than dude had a good week.
  25. jmlease1
    Honestly, this doesn't make much sense to me. If the wave of prospects we have moving along right now all graduate to the MLB club this season, then it's cause for celebration and we're not going to worry about whether we have a dip in minor league depth. If several of them aren't ready in 2022, then they're at the top of the list for 2023, along with the A & AA-ball guys that should be advancing. It's not like we're going to give up on Josh Winder if he struggles in his first year in MLB and ends up spending a good chunk of the year at AAA. From a prospect perspective, we're in solid shape where we have a significant wave of prospects arriving around the same time; the risk to our system is if too many of these guys bust all at once. but 2023 isn't where the "problem" is: it's 2024, and only if 80% of these guys flame out on us. If only 1 of Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, Woods-Richardson, Sands, Strotman, and Enlow makes it as an MLB starter in the next two seasons, we're in trouble. If three of these guys graduate from prospect to rotation (along with Ryan & Ober), then...we're insulated. If Martin, Lewis, Miranda, Steer and Wallner all fall down while neither Kirilloff or Larnach seize jobs...then yeah, we're in trouble. (since Miller, Cavaco, Soularie, and Urbina all look a little farther off) but this is the way it always is for small to mid-market teams: if guys don't develop and graduate into being quality starters and you don't develop any all-stars internally...then yeah, you're in trouble. but I'm not worried about whether guys use up their rookie eligibility, I'm worried about whether or not they're quality players. If they do, then it's easy enough to supplement your roster with a free agent or two to fill in holes where you don't have prospects (catcher and SS being the hardest).
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