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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I don't think trades need to be evaluated as a zero-sum win/loss metric. Both teams can "win" a trade based on their needs. I think this deal was a win for the Twins, because they wanted and needed starting pitching and got a good starter on a contract that was a good fit for the their team. The injury stinks for Maeda and the Twins (especially because they really needed him to hold down the rotation next season) but it doesn't change how good he was last season putting the team into contention. Graterol was a good prospect and has flashes of it as a reliever, but he's not dominating like his velocity might suggest. Did the Dodgers "lose"? Not really: they needed bullpen support, Graterol was solid last year, is fine this year, and they won the title in 2020. I'd say they're pretty happy with the deal too. (Raley was mostly a throw-in) I think both teams would do that deal again. I would.
  2. jmlease1
    Looking forward to seeing him pitch for the twins. I think it's great that he's going to get a chance to get his feet wet in MLB in some relatively lower-pressure games, and he's got some real talent. Should be fun to watch! be nice to feel confident penciling him in the rotation with Ober next year. The early results at Saint Paul were encouraging. Here's hoping for much success at Target Field!
  3. jmlease1
    Be outstanding if they can land all three. Adding talent every year through international signings is just as important as drafting well to keep that talent pipeline flowing. there's probably more risk involved (younger players, longer development time, rule 5 exposure, etc) but if you're scouting well and making smart decisions it's a huge opportunity. Twins have had some good success this way and these look like interesting prospects.
  4. jmlease1
    That was my first inclination too; maybe Matt Canterino? I expect him to start next year in AA, and think it's unlikely he'll debut in 2022. He needs to have a healthy minor league season and get innings, but he seems the least likely to get rushed into service in 2022. I'd bet Canterino, Petty, or next year's #1 pick.
  5. jmlease1
    Nicely done by Ober again. He's having a fine season and looking like someone to pencil in to the rotation for next season. there's a lot to like about how his season has gone: he's gotten better every month, so despite the league getting tape on him he's been able to make adjustments to keep up rather than get torched once MLB hitters see his stuff. He's still got some things to work on: getting lefties out consistently, staying effective later in games (the 5th inning has been tough on him as he starts seeing guys that 3rd time through), etc. but for a guy getting his first shot in the big leagues? He's doing very well. Hopefully he doesn't need to get shut down early because of workload. He's already at a personal best for IP as a professional, made more starts than he's ever done going back through his college days, but it would be a good sign for his development if he can pitch through September and wind up with 110+ IP and 24 starts.
  6. jmlease1
    Just not sure what benefit there is in sending Jax down at this point. He's got to find a way to keep MLB hitters in the park, or he won't be starting in the majors. Right now he's getting lit up again and he's giving up way too many HRs. But I'm ok with tinkering with him at the MLB level to see if he can get it together. But he's starting to look like a long-man in the bullpen. Keeping the ball in the park was never Jax's problem before, but this is the difference between the majors and the minors. He's walking more guys than ever before, he's giving up more HRs than ever before and the slight uptick in K's doesn't compensate. He's got to do better if he wants to compete for a job next year and be more than organizational depth. Sano is playing really well, and it's nice to see. His Aug has been exactly what we all hoped he'd be and he's gotten better basically all season after a horrific start. He's going to finish the year with 25-30 HRs in about 125 games and he's made excellent adjustments as the season's gone along. The question for him is: can he start like this next year? He's back to being a really dangerous hitter again.
  7. jmlease1
    Celestino's continued success at the plate in AAA is a good sign for his future. I've always liked him as a player, and I'm glad they protected him in the Rule 5 (I'm certain he would have been taken...but it's possible he might have been returned). He's going to have a chance to compete for a spot on the roster next year as a right-handed bat who can play all three OF spots. I don't think he needs a call up at this point: he just needs ABs in AAA.
  8. jmlease1
    So, after Jax pitches well for 5 straight starts, you should pull him because his stats for the year are bad, but if he keeps pitching well then maybe he should get more chances? Look, Griffin Jax is probably a 5th starter at best who has pretty fine margins of error for success in MLB. He doesn't have tons of velocity or particularly filthy stuff that can bail him out of a mistake. he lives and dies on his command and get strikes at the edges of the plate. When he misses, professional hitters will crush it, and we saw that last night. he also had the worst possible umpire for his type of pitching: one who was brutally inconsistent and made a number of obviously bad calls. (When Dick Bremer is calling it out, you know things are ugly out there) For a guy like Jax, i think it can be tough to know when you should pull him on a night like this. How do you guess when the mistake is gonna happen? How much of the bad 5th is because jax had no idea what was going to be called a strike any longer? cave's steal attempt looked pretty bad, but the Boston catcher has not been good at throwing guys out this year. If he goes on an off-speed pitch he's in there, but I'm still not entirely sure why he's running in that situation.
  9. jmlease1
    Still feels like a fringe player to me. Might have a few successful years in the bullpen, but will also likely have some pretty "meh" years, assuming he sticks. He was just another guy with the Dodgers in his first taste of MLB: not bad, not great. He's had 2 good outings with the Mets, but that's way too soon to suddenly decide he's figured it out and can be a key bullpen piece. If he gives up a dinger in his next start, suddenly his numbers go to hell fast. His minor league numbers this year aren't good: he hunted up K's but also gave up a pile of hits. His minor league WHIP is...ok, nothing special. He's 28. Did the twins miss on him? Not really. He looks like a fringe guy who will get some chances in MLB but will probably bounce between AAA & MLB. And if the Twins "missed" on him, so did the Angels, the Dodgers, the rays...
  10. jmlease1
    Neither, really. Grabbing guys in the Rule 5 is a crap shoot; for every Akil Baddoo there's 3 Alejandro Machados. The Twins have been fairly aggressive in Rule 5 and even they only actually take a guy about 65% of the time. Look at the Twin's picks in the 90's: none of their picks actually stuck with the team the full season: 6 were returned to their original club and 1 was part of one of the greatest trades the twins ever made. Rule 5 picks are almost always pitchers that a team thinks they can stash in the bullpen for a season or position guys whose defense is good enough at a premium position that you can hang on to them while their bat catches up (which is still hard). The Twins have only taken 11 position players in 50 years; all of them except maybe 1 could play either C, SS, or CF...see a pattern here? Looking at Miranda's production and positions...he looked like a tough guy to stash. Moran probably slid through because a) he'd been not all that great in 2019, b) no one had any data on him for 2020, and c) he was already pegged in as a reliever, reducing his overall future value. Every team's 40-man has 2-10 marginal guys on it that are unlikely to become starters in MLB but have shown something that says they might be able to survive if tossed in the fire (maybe through peripherals on a young guy or various stints in the majors for older one) if needed to fill a spot...and if something breaks their way maybe they turn into more. To stick from Rule 5 you have to stay on a team's 26 man MLB roster the whole season, and that's a lot more competitive. Unless you're a team that's tanking like Detroit.
  11. jmlease1
    Austin Martin continues to get on base at a ridiculous pace. Still mostly just singles, but I expect the power growth to happen in the off-season when he a) gets fully healthy, and b) has time to re-work his swing and approach a bit with the coaching staff. Still feels like a very fine professional debut to me, especially for a guy who didn't get any time in the low minors, but got thrown in at AA right away. Since coming to Wichita, he's got almost the same number of walks and Ks, and that's awfully fun. I can't decide if I want Wallner to get pushed up faster or him to get left in place to work on cutting down the Ks. He's having a nice enough season: solid BA, good OBP, very good power but the K's are worrisome. He's played well enough overall for his level to earn a promotion, but would that K rate get exploited at AA? Where's the best place for him to work on getting that to a manageable level? (every time I talk about Wallner I feel like I should talk about the other high draft slugger: Sabato. Who was so bad early that even after the recent power surge he's still got brutal numbers. Still has a SLG below his OBP. There's a reason he's not a top 20 prospect any longer, and it has little to do with the trades bringing in guys above him. Oof.)
  12. jmlease1
    Smeltzer is the toughest question in this group. He's a useful pitcher...but with limited upside. If the Twins are really crunched on the 40-man with better prospects, someone like him could get left out in the cold. I have no doubt that he'll get a shot at a major league roster from another team in a heartbeat, which is where it gets painful. But I don't think he's got a lot of value in a trade either (he's a throw-in in a bigger deal, maybe). That seems harsh for a guy who has had some success in MLB, but his ceiling looks like 5th starter/long man. I had higher hopes for Stashak as an impact reliever, but he's looking like a fungible guy and proof positive for why you have to be careful in where you put your money on the relief corps. A lot of these guys are going to be good one year and not much the next. He's probably not as bad as this year's numbers suggest, but also probably not as good as he was in 2020. The K's are great, but he's also a bit too hittable, so if his control slips (for whatever reason), then the WHIP is unsustainable. But he could have a nice bounceback year and be a decent middle relief option next year, which I'm sure will cause people to call for Falvine's collective heads if he goes elsewhere. He's another guy who the team will have to balance his potential utility against his lesser upside in evaluating him for a 40-man spot against a prospect with a higher ceiling.
  13. jmlease1
    Bummer about Sands leaving with an injury. All I want out of Most of our starters in the minors is health and inning right now, so seeing another guy who needs the development time go down just stinks. But Joe Ryan looks exciting! Wouldn't it be delightful if in a year everyone is talking about what a steal the Twins pulled off in dealing a rental for a rotation fixture?
  14. jmlease1
    there's no way around it: a very exciting start for Joe Ryan. That's a lot of strikeouts in a short stint, and he was reasonably efficient about it. Obviously, it'll be tougher at MLB, but he's definitely looking like he's not far off from being ready to take a shot at the majors and you can see why the Twins jumped on getting him for Cruz. I think it's smart to ease him back in after the Olympics, but it's great to have the Twins staff finally able to get their hands on Ryan and start to work with him and evaluate where he's at under AAA game conditions. It's a really interesting question on him getting the call-up; he's going to get at least one more start in AAA as part of the ramp up, I'm sure. If he crushes it again, do you bring him up in September to test him against the best? I think you do. He's not got a ton of innings on him for this year (in some ways the Olympics were good in creating an innings limit of sorts without actually pulling him), he's 25...if he looks ready, let him fly.
  15. jmlease1
    Older vets also want to play. vets also take 1 year deals to rebuild their value in FA, and they don't get that if they get dumped (regardless of performance)...so many of them ARE worrying about the following years. yes, you'll still be able to sign guys...but it's already hard enough for the Twins in FA. Do we really want to have to offer an additional 20% premium on a guy to get him to sign because we've built a rep as a crap organization with no loyalty and respect? (The whining about "overpaying" guys will be really fun to endure too. And by "fun", I mean the other thing.) the human element happens, pride gets in the way. A guy will get dropped rather than be offered "too much" in arbitration. Time after time you'll see that player head to a different organization, at equal or less money because pride won't let them take that deal from their current club. All of this stuff comes into play, and ignoring it for marginal moves can cause more damage than whatever small benefit you might get on development time.
  16. jmlease1
    You can't run an actual team like a fantasy/video game. There are actually people involved and the human element impacts your actions in both the short and long term. Yes, Colome is not coming back next year but he's been pitching well over his last 9 appearances until yesterday. A reliever is pitching well, has a bad outing and gets cut? Good luck signing anyone good to a 1-year deal next season. We don't have a young SS ready to play in the majors so, who do we replace Simmons with, exactly? One of the retreads from AAA who also won't be part of the future? Pineda is a contender to get re-signed next season and with his current relationship might be gotten for a reasonable price. They're going to need some veterans for the rotation, because betting on all rookies next season is a recipe for disaster. When healthy, he's a good pitcher. Cut him and he'll never wear a Twins uniform again. Sorry to see that Thorpe looks like he's never going to put it together. Sounds like the shoulder is trash, and that's a shame. I had hopes for him, but he's never been able to put it together. Maybe he'll get healthy for one more go this year, but I expect he'll fall off the 40 man now. Too bad: he had talent.
  17. jmlease1
    I'm pretty sure the actually quote from Mauch (and he may not have originated it) is "How do you build a 5-man rotation? Start with 10." but it's still true: between injuries and ineffectiveness, you need to expect to go 8-9 guys deep getting starts every season. On a good year, you go 6-7. on a bad one, you go 10-12.
  18. jmlease1
    The more I look at this list, the more I think Moran is too low. I get that FV is limited by him already being slotted in as a reliever, but this season has shown that you need to have some reliable stalwarts in the 'pen and he looks like he could be an anchor from the left side much in the same way Taylor Rogers has been for the past 4 years. I don't believe in spending huge sums on relievers, but you do need to get a few reliable anchors as you sort out who the other guys can be from year to year. Moran's talent puts him closer to 20 than 30 for me. I might drop Sabato and Wallner a few spots, but that's a minor quibble. Sabato has finally started showing some power, but it's an awfully small sample size to assume he's figured that out, considering how dreadful he's otherwise been this season. Wallner's K rate is worrying, but he's certainly doing better than sabato at this stage. I had Martin over Lewis; I'm a big fan of Martin. I'm not worried about his power development at this point and his control of the strike zone is fantastic. he can hit and get on base amazingly well for a guy in his first taste of pro ball at AA. He might be someone people say "he's the only guy I know that can go 4 for 3" about. (which was said about a Twins HoFer once upon a time) Lewis still has terrific upside, but he's losing out on two key development years and that has to set you back a little. the depth is looking good, even with a bunch of players getting close or ready to graduate off of prospect status. We do still need to find that defensive wizard at SS, and it would be nice to start the development on another catching prospect down in A-ball...but overall the talent pipeline is looking strong.
  19. jmlease1
    Such a confounding team. If they'd played like this in April, they might still be relevant this season. I'm not all that bothered by Simmons continuing to get run out there at SS; even with the error tonight he's easily the best defender we have for the spot and that's going to be helpful for young pitchers to have back there. I don't think anyone outside of a few people on this board see Nick Gordon as being an MLB-quality defender at SS, so what's the option? Throw JT Riddle out there? Call up Palacios from AA? And there is the issue of what cutting bait on a veteran can do to you when trying to sign guys in free agency. Burn too many agents and suddenly that veteran you need to fill a roster hole gets steered elsewhere. It's not like Simmons is unplayable (i.e., Shoemaker): he's just bad at the plate, generally good in the field. Jax is battling his way through, but the margins are tight on him. He'll pound the zone enough that he generally won't beat himself, but the HR/9 is unsustainable. He's currently tied with Dobnak (who was having a dreadful season) for the worst HR/9 of any Twins starter this season, and it's the worst of any twins pitcher who's thrown more than 10 innings. Got to keep it in the park or he's not going to hold a spot in the rotation for long. nice to see kepler finding his stroke again; he was very good in July and has been very good again in Aug. Must be finally feeling healthy? he's not an ideal leadoff man, but he's been taking good ABs lately, drawing walks again, and flashing that power stroke, so it's not a terrible idea.
  20. jmlease1
    Nice to see Rooker getting going again. He's going to need some more performances like this to contend for a role on next year's team; he had a terrific July when he came back up (after a brutal start) and has been a bit up & down in August. The power plays, but I'd like to see him do a bit better drawing walks/getting on base. It's interesting how much like Sano he's been this season: not as good against lefties as you might have thought he'd be, great at home, bad on the road...splits are interesting things. Really surprised to see Maeda get pulled after 6 and only 76 pitches. Must have thought has was fighting something after starting that excellent double play and decided not to risk him aggravating it? He pitched very well, really enjoyable. D stood up behind him as well. Wacha was brutal for the Rays, IMHO. Amazed they left him in there so long to get beat around.
  21. jmlease1
    Never? He hit just fine in his first professional season in rookie/low-A in 2017, hit very well in 2018 while spending time at both Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. He took a step back at the plate in 2019, but still played well enough to earn a promotion to AA, where he maintained about the same performance despite being very young for the level. Then he ripped the cover off the ball in the AFL. (If you're positive on Lewis, then it's a sign of good development. If you're down on Lewis, then the AFL means nothing. YMMV.) No stats to say how he developed as a hitter in 2020 and then got hurt and hasn't played in 2021. I'd say the jury is most definitely out on what kind of hitter he is, but it's simply wrong to say he's never shown the ability to hit in his professional career. I put him below Martin for sure (I'm higher on him than some, I know), and would probably push him below Balazovic (who I really like), but he's still a very talented prospect with huge upside.
  22. jmlease1
    I agree that the Twins are not convinced on Gordon at SS, but I don't think they've given up on Palacios there. Hard to know exactly what they think Palacios' future is right now, but he's had a major rebound in AA.
  23. jmlease1
    well, I think that's about to happen. It's now or never on Thorpe, I think, so if he's healthy let;s see if he can go in MLB. we won't learn much more about him in AAA. But if he can get it done in MLB, a lefty with his talent could be very useful. Every time I've thought he was ready to get it in gear he's had some significant setback, so I'm not getting my hopes up but it's not like he doesn't have talent. But if he can't show it soon, he's going to get passed up by the law firm of Balazovic, Duran, Woods-Richardson, Canterino, Ryan and Winder...
  24. jmlease1
    I think this is right for the top 5. I would flip Martin & Lewis (lol), but I know I'm higher on Martin than a lot of people. I'm not worried about his power development, and his ability to control the strike zone is really remarkable for a guy in his first professional season. Lewis is seriously talented, but losing this entire year after not having a minor league season last year hurts his development. Balazovic may not have quite as good raw stuff as Duran, but he's probably a more complete pitcher right now and it's not like he doesn't have good stuff. While he's spent a little time on the IL this year, he's back and healthy and dominating again and it's more than fair to be concerned about Duran's elbow. Looking forward to seeing Woods-Richardson and seeing what he can do.
  25. jmlease1
    I hope Sabato is figuring it out. He needs this hot run to keep going and to keep getting the bat on the ball. Right now his stock is falling, but maybe just maybe the reason for his rotten start has more to do with not getting to play last season than a lack of ability. The batting eye is good, the power is there but he needs to get hits or he'll be a broke man's Brent Rooker, and that's not good enough to go anywhere but Bust Town.
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