jmlease1

Sure, but owners are equally culpable in ignoring issues of competitive balance and trying to manipulate revenue sharing. They're only more "in line" with fans by the basic fact that most fans don't care how much players get paid or what their working conditions are and neither do the owners. The owner's goals with the increased penalties was less about improving parity than it was in trying to retard salaries. Anything that it did for parity was secondary. Collectively, ownership cares nothing for fan experience if it costs them any money, but they're very good at pointing the finger at other people to be responsible for paying for it, from the players ("we have to raise ticket and concession prices because of payroll") or taxpayers ("we simply can't compete without a new stadium and if the community doesn't support it, then we'll go somewhere they will"). And they consistently hide their greed and ambition behind the team logo, because it's a shield for them with the fans. We still mostly root for the logo, and the owners control that.

here's the thing, though: you can't use that frame for this because this is not a traditional labor-management situation. You're presuming that because the players can easily become millionaires and have free agency at some point that they shouldn't ever really object to the terms of employment. (Ownership would love you) We're talking about what is the way to divide up billions of dollars in revenue, and presuming that the billionaire owners who don't actually create the on-field product should be able to dictate terms because the players get to be rich (but not as rich) isn't ok either. This is also why there are no heroes in this fight: it's millionaires vs billionaires. You have millionaire players who say and do stupid things in public that get paid massive amounts of money for what is at heart, a game. But you also have billionaire owners who have gone from being spectacularly wealthy to unfathomably wealthy by having a name & being part of an exclusive club, and act like they deserve all of it. It may be hard to side with the players at times because of how wealthy they get to be doing something we think is awesome, but it's almost impossible to side with the owners who would use you as a carpet to wipe your feet with if they could get away with it, and don't really give a crap about the game we love unless it makes them insanely rich.

There are no heroes in this negotiation from a fan standpoint; neither side gives a crap about us. Should they? Yes, of course, because fan support is critical to the long-term health and wealth of the game, but the reality is they're much more interested in their personal financial situations and any reference to the fans from either side is nothing more than a PR ploy. The players have a the fundamental problem of having been crushed in the last negotiation, starting them off in a weaker position. (which they may or may not realize) Most of what they're asking for isn't all that unreasonable in the context of the financials of the game, which has huge amounts of revenue to play with. But the mlbpa has never truly wrestled with the financial imbalances between the biggest markets and the smallest, and prefers a financial structure that favors those largest teams. Big teams in big markets handing out massive deals to stars does drag the salary structure upwards overall...but it also puts things in position of haves and have nots...and the mlbpa doesn't care about that until more than 3-4 teams in a year appear to be tanking/rebuilding and not spending on them. (They've also shamefully ignored minor league players for their entire history, really, and foolishly haven't sought to fold them into the union in an effort to increase their own membership and power) The owners, on the other hand, always manage to suck even more. They're a bunch of contemptible greedheads who care nothing for the game they're supposed to be stewards of, and have a ginormous split between the largest teams and smallest. There's not nearly enough revenue sharing to have true competitive balance and the owners seem completely uninterested in addressing it. They had to have a lawsuit come at them and the threat of congressional hearings to have any movement on the disgusting treatment of minor league players. They locked the players out because they don't care all that much about the regular season and simply wanted to pressure the players into accepting another bad deal, to keep them from a) massing additional warchests for a strike, and b) to keep the players from having the power to spike the postseason 4-5 months from now and give them leverage for a better deal. They locked the players out, they're cancelling games, they refuse to do anything for real competitive and financial balance, and they want to be guaranteed to make money no matter what happens, on top of having their franchises increasing in value by massive amounts. (even the worst franchise in baseball is worth over $1 Billion.) They want to have all the power to whatever they want, whenever they want. They suck. They get away with a lot of this because a) people root for laundry more than they root for players, even now, and b) they tend to stay out of sight, no one knows who they are, and there's far fewer of them so outside of markets where fans are perpetually mad at ownership...people don't personalize this against them. The hide behind the team logo to make people think it's only "greedy" players screwing this all up, when the truth is no one can possibly match the greed and arrogance of the owners. In terms of the actual negotiations, I feel like the players are going to end up settling because the owners have more power, especially after the mlbpa got totally housed in the last CBA, and it's harder to swim against that tide especially with a larger membership, many of whom "need" those salaries. Ownership is fabulously wealthy with or without ticket sales and concessions and they damn well know it. They'll give us all a middle finger, cancelling games for months to keep what they have and get what they want. Yuck.

I think a player that can hit around .300 with a good on-base % has value to a lot of teams; Arraez is passable at 2B & 3B and while he doesn't have the power to traditionally DH...that OBP with a high BA makes him attractive. I'd say the biggest concern about him playing LF is more about his knees than his actual defense out there. He can pass a physical, but he looks like he's 30 years older walking to the plate some times. He's a reasonable trade option for several reasons: as a proven MLB player who is still under team control, he's got immediate value to a wide variety of teams, not just tankers looking for prospects, but contenders as well. He'd be a great fit as a utility INF who makes a lot of starts because of his stick. From a Twins perspective, they have MLB players at 2B & 3B (his best positions), along with prospects whose best positions look like they might be 2B, 3B, or LF. Dealing Arraez is dealing from a position of strength, so you have to consider it. I think he's the guy on the MLB roster most likely to get dealt, but there's still room for him to stick on the roster. Between DH, 3B (with Donaldson needing regular rest and being a high injury risk), backing up Polanco, and even slipping out of LF gives him enough ABs. I'd listen to offers on him, and I'd consider proposing him in trade packages for pitching, but I'm not giving him away. I like Arraez a great deal, but I'm not starting him ahead of Polanco or Donaldson, and Miranda and Martin are on their way to surpass him.

I'll be perfectly fine if Petty spends the year in Ft. Myers, and it'll be really interesting to see how the development of his off-speed stuff goes and what his velocity looks like on that fastball as he gets deeper into the season. If he's healthy and still throwing 95-97 late in the year with real confidence in his slider or something...it's probably a successful season. He's got a thunderbolt for an arm. High school pitchers are always a risk, but he's got the upside that makes him worth taking a shot on. Good luck to him in his first full pro season.

PECOTA is an interesting exercise. You have to keep in mind that it's difficult for any projection system to spot a breakout season or that tipping point one where a player gets old and the skills have the big decline all at once. They're not going to be able to control for injuries very well. They're going to tend towards regression to the mean. They're also not really trying to tell you what will happen with a player, but what they think will be the most likely outcome, which is not really the same thing. When you keep that in mind there's value in looking at what they're forecasting. as a twins fan, I love this projection for Ryan. If I had to guess, I'd say he's likely to pitch more innings, get less Ks, and have a higher ERA. But this isn't an unreasonable projection, and it's why the Twins traded for him. It's why someone like Gleeman ranks him so high on the prospect lists. I'm really looking forward to seeing him pitch the full year; he's fun to watch and it'll be interesting to see where his HR/9 ends up because how many HRs he surrenders and in what situations those balls fly out of the park. If it's a bunch of solo shots and he keeps the rate at 1.5 HR/9 or less...then he's going to have a ton of success.

How they do in realigning his swing to ensure that he does damage on balls in the zone will determine how quickly we see him at Target Field. (yet another player that this damnable lockout screws over) He's got an excellent eye at the plate and the bat skills to cover the zone well, but the changes he made (and as KLaw noted were almost certainly in part because of an injury) definitely sapped his power. But he's shown that he can drive the ball, so this shouldn't be that hard of an adjustment to make, getting him back to where he was. Is he going to be a 30 HR guy? probably not, but we've got plenty of those guys. Martin profiles as a terrific leadoff hitter who can play multiple defensive positions, who will basically live on base. He makes Arraez look more and more tradeable (for pitching or a full-time SS) because he's a guy who would be a plus defender at 2B instead of just average, and his CF skills will play just fine in any of the corners too (I don't worry about whether he's played LF with a player who can play CF). Also, why is it that when the Twins are considering prospects for trade we're told that we have to give our best in order to get a mid-pack starter but when receiving a prospect we're told that guy isn't viewed as a future star? Blue Jays traded Martin (and Woods-Richardson) because they were going all-in on the season because they had a couple of young players who had stepped up as stars, a veteran bargain on an MVP run, and a veteran pitcher on a Cy Young season and tried to take advantage. And they came up a little short (tough beat to miss the playoffs on 91 wins) but if they'd gotten in they might have been my pick to win the whole damn thing. So I don't buy the whole "Toronto traded Martin because they were convinced he wouldn't be a star" bit; they traded him because they saw an opportunity to win and had to trade talent to get an excellent pitcher. I love Martin. I think he's going to be an excellent player for the Twins. We will see him in MLB in 2022 and starting in 2023 at the latest he will be leading off for the Twins.

It's going to be really interesting how Lewis does this year. How will the knee hold up in field? (I'm not worried about his straight-line speed, but an injury like that can do more to his lateral movement) How well can he really hit? I also don't think that you reserve SS for Royce Lewis for 2023; if he's ready and shows it this year, great, but...Trevor Story is already an excellent defender at SS and has proven he can hit MLB pitching. A player being "blocked' is a problem worth having and can get resolved quite easily; injury often sorts it out and if not then trades are easy to make when you have clear excess at a position. I love Lewis' attitude and tools. I think his work ethic and make-up will help him translate those to results on the field, but he needs games. more than anyone he needs games. not surprised to see him drop to #2; he hasn't played and is coming off a significant injury. There's a case to drop him lower, and I say that as someone who truly believes in his ability.

Lawton had some nice years for the Twins (except for '99 when all the pop in his bat took a vacation) but I always thought he would be a better defender than he was. Better hitter than Jacque Jones, but I'm not sure if people remember him that way? Jacque should have been a great platoon player, dominating righties and taking the day off against lefties, but for reasons passing understanding he got over 1000 ABs against LHP. oof. Not one of the better decisions from Gardy? Torii was unquestionably the best of the bunch. But the Soul Patrol was a fun OF for a few years on some teams that were just starting to figure it out.

There's a ton to like about Miranda to be sure. That bat will play regardless of position, but he looks like he could fit in very nicely at 3B if/when the team moves on from Donaldson. personally, I would have him on the roster from opening day (hopefully they get rid of the service time manipulation nonsense that made it wise for teams to leave a top prospect in the minors for a month) backing up 3B to get his feet wet, while filling in the OF and getting some reps at DH. (I expect Donaldson to get a fair amount of time at DH) I don't think he'll hit .300+, but to me he looks like a player who's going to be in the .280/.330/.475 slash range, which plays nicely almost anywhere in the field. We've also seen players who struggled defensively improve their work at the MLB level (Trevor Plouffe went from being the Butcher of Cairo at 3B to being a quality defender there and Koskie went from being a guy who looked like he had a frying pan instead of a glove out there at time to deserving a gold glove. even if he didn't get one). So it wouldn't surprise me if Miranda is able to improve his skills on the defensive end, especially if he's getting some tutoring from Donaldson

There's really only two questions Balazovic has left to answer to put himself in the rotation for ten years, IMHO: 1) can he stay healthy? (common refrain on our prospects after last season), and 2) can he master that split he's been developing to replace his changeup, because he's going to need it to handle lefties in MLB. The fastball is quality, the slider is quality, and if he can control that split as his primary off-speed offering for lefties, then he's going to be in great shape. I expect him to start in AAA and be up with the big club before the all-star break.

Ryan is a really interesting player. Yes, he's a bit homer-happy and that's clearly depressing some scouts valuation of him, but I think the HR/9 rate is survivable if he brings it down even just a little. (Brad Radke? career HR/9 of 1.2) If he can refine his off-speed pitches a little more, it should let him finish off hitters faster (which will let him get deeper in games) but will also keep his fastball harder to square up on. He's certainly fun to watch. It's going to be really interesting to see if getting more tape on him is enough to help hitters adjust to the funky arm slot and different delivery or whether it's one of those things that has to be experienced to wrap your brain around. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does in a full season, how his stamina looks after throwing 90 pitches and whether the team lets him go another inning. How does he do on 4-5 days rest instead of 6-7. How does he look after making 15+ starts and the season starts to really grind? I like a lot of things about Ryan, and I think he's got a bright future as a rotation fixture.

I wouldn't call the extension a mistake: while it hasn't worked out as well as the Twins would have liked, it wasn't a disaster, and the thought process behind it was absolutely sound. There was some calculated risk involved, but it wasn't a big botch or the result of flawed thinking. I don't expect every move to work out (it's simply unrealistic). I'm generally happy when the Twins are able to sign their own players to extensions, in part because it's more fun to root for players that you've known for a while rather than have a team of mercenaries. It's also usually good business. Mistake? eh. And if Sano has a big year this season...

It's not the number of starts or the innings pitched that's the issue with Rice, it's the number of pitches they'll allow a kid to throw in those starts. 120 pitches? sure, no problem. 140? well, we need you to win today, so go right on out there. 150? You're graduating this spring, so why do we care? They are notorious for letting guys rack up huge pitch counts.

This. He might have been ok starting in AA, but having that get interrupted by the Olympics and then not actually pitching in Japan on top of not having a season of games in 2020 really screwed him. He needed last year as a development year and it got completely borked up with the Olympics. Considering he only had 6 starts in A+ at age 18, I don't think there was any need to rush him to AA, especially with the skip year in 2020. His time with the Twins so far was pretty meaningless: it's only 8 innings coming off a essentially a 6 week layoff. I'm guessing they were just trying to see what he looked like and try to figure out what he needed to work on. Hopefully, he's back in AA and gets to be on a real program this year and show what he can do. the talent is there. I really don't want him factoring in to any trade right now; pretty sure we'd be selling low on a guy with a lot of talent.

I wish only great things for Royce Lewis, who seems like an awesome dude. Hopefully he gets a year of great health so he can show what he's capable of. Have to say, if his speed is in Byron Buxton's class, even after the knee injury? WOW. (speed guys are so much fun to watch)

Which has a worse track record for bust/injuries: first round draft pick high school pitchers or Rice alumni?

Comments like "high-effort delivery" and "head violence" remind me of when scouting reports described a player as "having a good face". It's as if they've decided there can be only one way to pitch and a young player must have a certain kind of pitching motion or it must be changed. I think there's as much risk in that kind of decision as there is in letting the pitcher continue on with what has been working for them. Petty apparently already has a good slider as a high school pitcher who threw 100mph. If you're throwing 100mph in high school, you don't really need anything else, so the fact that he might already have a plus off-speed pitch is remarkable and worth spending a high draft pick on. I'd like to see him in rookie ball, working on his secondary offerings and integrating them with the magical fastball. I kinda don't want to see them try and mess with his delivery at this point, not unless he's showing real problems with control against professional competition. Pitchers are not robots. Unless his delivery is showing signs of actually causing him damage to his body that will lead to injury and an adjustment will actually prevent it (as opposed to "well, we like this one better") then leave him alone. Let's see what he can do.

Everything about Winder looks good except his health. If he has a full season, that probably goes away. He's got a full package and he's close to being ready to pitch in MLB. I might go higher than #10, but I don't know that I care that much about the distinction between #6 and #10? He probably starts in AAA since he finished last season on the injured list...but it's going to be really interesting to see who the first guy up from AAA is this season. Could be Canterino. Could be Duran. Could be Balazovic. Could even be Strotman. But I wouldn't bet against Winder. At this point I'm not really interested in having a veteran retread starting the season with the Twins in AAA, because you can fill out the whole rotation in Saint Paul with legitimate prospects. Can't wait to see which one is the first to bust out. Winder might be the one most ready to pitch in MLB, even if someone else might have better stuff.

It's interesting to contrast this group with KLaw's Top 20. TD seems to be much higher on Wallner than KLaw, who actually suggested he go back to pitching. Be interesting to see who is right on that that one, and the reality is it's all going to depend on whether or not he can make enough contact. Varland is a great story, but he's not just a story with that fastball. He's a legit prospect and it's going to be interesting to see how his secondary offerings progress. He's shown he has the work ethic. Looking forward to tracking his rise this year

I can see dropping Enlow down (he's a player where you have to have a lot of faith in his talent and projection over health & production), but Strotman's lack of control, age, and likely fate in the bullpen make it hard to put him in the top 20 for me. He had some success his first dozen starts, but he was still walking everybody, which is why it shouldn;t have been a surprise to see his numbers drop off for the next dozen after he came over to the Twins.

He's 16th on the prospect list. All they're saying is he has the tools to rise very high. If he doesn't make more contact as he rises through minor league levels, he won't climb these prospect ranks, But ignoring that initial power production would be silly.

As a depth signing and hedge against injury, I like the move. As a contender for the starting job, well, he'd better not be the number one seed. He's a perfectly reasonable option to have in AAA if the starting SS gets an injury that's going to put them on the shelf for longer than a week or so. But that's really the extent of the expectation, and anything else would be a bonus that you can't count on when assembling the team.

I'd bump Lewis out for Sabato. I'm definitely more forgiving for injury; it's a) almost always outside the player's control, and b) players can come back from it really strong. I'm more worried about guys who perform poorly on the field, and Sabato had a brutal start to his year. He was pretty bad in the FSL and just couldn't make consistent contact, and for a player whose value is going to almost exclusively come from his bat...yuck. Despite the missed time, Lewis is the same age as Sabato and has a better array of tools.

Winder has wonderful potential. He looks like he knows how to pitch and has some offerings that can get guys out at the MLB level. The real issue with Winder, and the reason he hasn't debuted yet, and why he might not start in the MLB rotation, is health. He didn't pitch after July 21 last year and only threw 72 innings. Winder only threw 7 innings once last year. He did not exactly dominate upon promotion to AAA. I like his pitches and his makeup, and I think he could be a fine pitcher, but it's not going to be some tragedy or screw-job if he starts the season in AAA