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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I don't think we're going to see Smeltzer any time soon, frankly, even with him pitching well. he's in place as starter depth and insurance, and until someone else gets hurt for an extended period, I wouldn't expect to see Smeltzer coming back up to relieve this early in the season. Good for him for getting back on track. Wallner is off to a brutal start to the season. He's not making any contact at all, the K rate is absurdly high, and yesterday was another rotten performance at the plate. He probably needs a day off or two and a complete reset, because right now he's looking horrid. (in my mind he's too old to send back to high A; not sure beating up on younger pitchers who are still figuring out how to control their stuff and learn to pitch will help him) I have to say I'm surprised at how poorly he's doing: after his performance in the AFL, I thought he would transition to AA better than this. It's still early, but this is not good for him.
  2. jmlease1
    It was 85. This is only his 3rd start of the year after an abbreviated spring training and lockout. he threw 70 pitches in his first start, 82 in #2, and 85 in #3. I'm guessing that they'd let him go 90-100 in his next start as they ramp him up to full strength while trying to avoid injury. I'd hate for Ryan to strain something in his shoulder (or anywhere else, frankly) and miss 10-30 days just so he could "take control of his game".
  3. jmlease1
    Great to see Ryan continuing to develop his slider and make that a weapon for himself. If he's able to consistently locate that pitch it's going to help his fastball as well. He really seems like a player who understands how to pitch, and it's fun to watch. The first game with the 4 BBs is looking like a bit of an anomaly. Just happy to see Buxton back in the lineup.
  4. jmlease1
    I'm excited about his velocity from last night and overall command of the curve. If he's ticking that fastball up to 95-96 consistently and commanding the curve to pair with an already quality changeup...he may get back to being the guy the padres thought he was going to be when he first arrived. Still work to be done, but you could see why the twins wanted him last night. time will tell if the adjustments and improvement stick, but I enjoyed watching him pitch. (Smalley was pretty enamored of that curve, that's for sure.)
  5. jmlease1
    Seriously, I saw Raya to the IL, and I thought "aw, #@$#%$#&#!!!" Then I saw it was for wisdom teeth and started to breathe again. Would have hated to see him go out for injury immediately after that sexy first start. I've always believed in SWR's talent. He had a weird year, following a pandemic "no minor leagues" year which has messed his development up, but the twins wisely didn't pile on last year after acquiring him and just patiently got his program back together. He's hardly old for his level, so the repeat at AA is perfectly fine and now we're seeing what he can do. Maybe promotion will be on the table for midseason, but he just needs starts and innings right now. I suspect the K/9 will tick back up; the weak contact easy outs are sort of depressing his Ks. His walks are back to where they were in rookie/A-ball before the pandemic got in the way, and that's a great sign for how his command is. (He was one of the prospects I really didn't want to deal in the offseason, because it felt like we would have been selling low on a significant talent) Good to see Royce continuing to rake. he's looking a lot like the guy who impressed in the AFL. Trying not to overreact to 12 games, but he's such a fun player and so easy to root for that it's hard not to jump around a little. Let the good health continue and his talent shine.
  6. jmlease1
    well, this season is roughly 20 minutes old, so I'm not just this anything more than hyperbole. The two seasons when the twins won a bazillion games and made the playoffs the twins were widely praised for the clubhouse atmosphere, and even last year the team finished the season playing competitive baseball (they didn't quit on the season even when various star players/leaders were moved out). So do they really have a clubhouse problem, or are you looking for something to hang on Rocco that can't easily be proved or disproved? Maybe we should exhume the corpse of Earl Weaver.
  7. jmlease1
    Really? We're going to blame the Twins utter inability to hit on the manager? I'm pretty sure he didn't swing a single bat in a game this year, but he did stack in a ton of RH hitters into the lineup last night. It's on the players to play, and right now the hitters are really struggling. This is the kind of game a struggling team has: no breaks. Paddack pitched well, but was unlucky. KC only hit one ball hard against him all night it seemed, but a couple of INF singles and seeing-eye singles and the scraped up 2 runs. Everything the Twins hit in the air was right at someone. Not exactly sure how the manager is supposed to fix that, but I'm sure someone will tell me.
  8. jmlease1
    Would you care to refresh that overreaction with the addition of a second start? Because Paddack was quite good (if unlucky) tonight. Or is this going to be a case of not caring what Paddack does in any of his other starts, the mind she is made up?
  9. jmlease1
    When was the last time the twins community was happy with a twins manager's bullpen strategy and usage? because I recall people being mad at Molitor for running a guy into the ground (Addison Reed?), running out a washed up vet (Matt belisle), etc. Gardy? Were we ok with Gardy, or did we blame him for sending out Wilson Ramos so he could have a proven closer? or was it for running a gassed Joe Nathan out for a 3rd inning? Kinda feels like we always second-guess the bullpen.
  10. jmlease1
    He's not getting swings and misses on the fastball and he's struggling to locate the curveball. They're probably going to have to drop him out of the high leverage situations. I will say, I think Alcala would have gotten the call last night in that spot if he had been healthy, and Duran if he hadn't pitched the day before. So the options for a righty in that spot were really: Duffey, Romero, Pagan, or Stashak. (maybe Winder?) I'm guessing they were looking at holding Pagan for later in the game? twins are in a bit of a bind with Duffey: there's some real numbers to be worried about when you really dig in on him...but it's also a super-small sample size. Going into last night's game, he had a blown save in 9th, got his 3 outs in the 7th in a nice 4-0 win, got 3 outs in the 7th and out of the inning clean when the team was only down 1 in what ended up as an 8-1 loss...so asking him to go for an inning against KC with a 1-run lead isn't crazy. You can't throw a pitcher, even a reliever, on the scrap heap after 1 bad outing or you'll never have any relievers. Deciding how long to give them to work out of it is something I really don't know how to measure. take Hansel Robles: wasn't particularly good for the twins last year, got traded to the Red Sox and was better. This season he's been excellent. Did anyone have that one locked down? Which ex-twins reliever is going to finish the season with a better record than Duffey, Trevor May or Alexander Colome? neither is getting Ks so far, both are looking very hittable, both are experienced late-inning relievers and roughly the same age (Colome is 33, May is 32). The answer might be either, neither, or both.
  11. jmlease1
    Nice outing from Raya. He's got talent, and it's nice to see him go 6 and dominate so well. I think the key for him is going to be how he holds up going every 5th day or so and seeing where he's at in June. but hard not to get a little excited about his upside.
  12. jmlease1
    Yep. better fire the manager. that'll fix everything. I'm sure someone from this board is ready to step in and will make no mistakes, and all the second-guessing will go away. wait... I'm sorry, I just get tired of every decision that Rocco or the team makes being described as "inexcusable". Duffey looked really rough last night, like he was pitching batting practice. His command is off, and he's hanging his breaking balls, and KC made him pay. It's a reminder why relievers, outside of the absolute best of them, are generally pretty fungible. You can be great for 2 seasons and heading for the cut line 2 years later. I hope he gets it together, but if he hangs that curve over the heart of the plate he's not getting anyone out. (It's not that there's no bite on it, it's the location. He just can't start it letter-high, center of the plate and not expect it to get killed. I'm sure he knows that too, so clearly he's having problems locating the pitch)
  13. jmlease1
    Alex Fast is a moron if he actually thinks this is reasonable, and this article has a supremely click-baity headline. Disappointing.
  14. jmlease1
    Talented hitter, and I think he'll do better in his second stint than his first in MLB. But he still has a ways to go before he's proven that you can't get him out consistently by just tossing slop at him, and the next evolution will be showing that he can still punish fastballs when he only sees 2 for strikes per game. But I believe in Larnach's talent and skill. Hope all the barrels and hard-hit balls turn into hits. We need 'em!
  15. jmlease1
    Funny ol' game, baseball. One good game and suddenly the Twins have scored 37 and given up 42 playing some quality teams, and if they have a good series against the Royals they're right back in the mix. Considering how cold the bats have been when the thought was it was the lineup that was the strength of the team...maybe this isn't so bad. We'll see about Jax: I think it was the right call to run him out there with the big lead and see how he'd do. I don't know if he's really an MLB pitcher, but testing him in the bullpen makes sense. We definitely had a few hitters who needed it get some hits: Correa and Polanco were both scuffling too and they did well. Still plenty of work to get this lineup where it needs to be, but I choose to be encouraged by the fact that they drew 7 walks. It's easy for guys who are pressing to spiral and make it worse by expanding the zone, and they're not doing that. (38 BBs in 10 games doesn't stink; when the hits start falling those will lead to runs) I'm happy Bundy is starting out well; he's still not a guy I love but he could do well for us.
  16. jmlease1
    Did the Tampa Bay Rays make the wrong decision in not keeping CJ Cron? 2019 Ji-Man Choi 120 OPS+, 2.1 bWAR 2020 Ji-Man Choi 108 OPS+, 0.3 bWAR 2021 Yandy Diaz 110 OPS+, 1.6 bWAR 2019 Cron 104 OPS+, 1.2 bWAR 2020 Cron 141 OPS+, 0.3 bWAR 2021 Cron 131 OPS+, 3.4 bWAR
  17. jmlease1
    That's the wrong comp, though, not a reason to discount Lewis' hitting. Cave pounding on AAA pitchers as someone who has spent significant time in MLB is a good thing. Lewis matching that is excellent. Just because Twins fans have PTSD about jake Cave doesn't mean that him hitting well in AAA so far is a sign that Lewis' success to date is somehow a mirage. (and no, I don't want to add Cave to the MLB roster)
  18. jmlease1
    I'm just saying: It's a waste of time to call for them to be cut in April. It's not going to happen, not in this organization or frankly in any other organization either. You may hate Kepler, but he added starter-level value to the team last year even in a down year where he missed more games than any year since becoming a full-time starter. Sano is a poor defender with a history of slumps. but when he's locked in he can carry a team for a month. Neither player is a "sunk cost fallacy" candidate, especially after 8 games. If you're going to spend the season crusading against players you've decided aren't any good but the team has shown they disagree with your evaluation...I think you're going to have a miserable year. I suppose you can spend all your time calling for falvey & levine to be fired? because that's where you're at: you're saying your opinion of these two players is right and they have no value. I wasn't a fan of the Cave decision, because there was too much misery associated with him recently. But from a purely baseball move, there's nothing wrong with stashing a decent backup OF in the minors that the team thinks could fill in multiple spots in case of a long-term injury or major struggled from younger players. So there's a reason for it, just one that ignores how badly he's performed the last two seasons (and of course his significant injury last season had a lot to do with it) and how much that upset parts of the fanbase. YMMV on whether they should care about fanbase PTSD...
  19. jmlease1
    declaring Kepler and Sano sunk costs after 8 games in April strikes me as a massive overreaction. If you felt this way about them as players, then they should have been dealt in the offseason. Obviously, the Twins don't feel this way about them as players.
  20. jmlease1
    Neither Kepler nor Sano are injured, so what exactly are you suggesting here? They're not going to send either down to the minors (assuming they had options left that could be exercised) and the roster is full of pitchers. So unless they deal them or cut them, there's really no room right now. And cutting bait on either right now, means eating a lot of salary for no return based on the hope that these guys are ready to step in immediately. Hells bells, Martin is still in AA and just started hitting this weekend.
  21. jmlease1
    I wasn't worried about Austin Martin: I believe in his talent. But it's nice to see him have a good day at the plate like this and start getting it going. Gipson-Long: wow! Great start by him. But he's 24, so he'd better dominate guys in A-ball? I would hope he would be an early promotion to AA and we can see more about who he really is. Have to be a little careful about getting too excited over the older pitcher running over the A-ball kids, you know? Palacios is doing great, and made a smart decision for himself in coming back to MN.
  22. jmlease1
    That's fair. In terms of raw stuff and fitting more classic forms, guys like Winder, Canterino, Balazovic, Woods Richardson, etc fit the mold, so if the Twins can do the same things to add to them that they have with Ober (and potentially with Ryan) that's all to the good. And it does feel like that's happened/happening with Winder & Varland, both of whom have seen that increased velocity already.
  23. jmlease1
    Seriously. This team could go on a 10 game winning streak and people would still find something to complain about with Rocco. Seems to be a segment of the fanbase that's decided that Rocco = Bad and I have to wonder if anything would change their minds. Twins scored a nice win against Boston. Ryan pitched great. Really nice to see the team working a bundle of walks; that was the difference. Twins walked no one. Boston walked everyone.
  24. jmlease1
    Woods Richardson just needs innings. Really happy to see him off to a strong start this year in AA. He's only 21, but he's already been traded twice and had a bumpy development path, with the pandemic and the Olympics. Getting him into a more normal year with a clear development path is going to be really good to let his ability shine. I'll be watching his command and ability to get deeper into games this season. I think he'll show exactly why he's a highly regarded prospect after he puts in 25+ starts this season, and will line himself up to debut in MLB in 2023. Literally no complaints about Royce Lewis so far, which is wonderful as well. He's been terrific at the plate and good int he field...another guy who just needs innings to let his talent shine. Stay healthy, mah dude. Can't wait to get to Saint Paul for a game to see him play.
  25. jmlease1
    I'm a fan of Ober & Ryan. They look like real pitchers, and I think there's something to having a rotation where not every pitcher looks the same. Ober, with his tremendous length and Ryan with his different release point and water polo delivery give a different look which adds deception to their approaches. With additional refinement on their pitches and approach, developing consistency, they can both be quality starters for the rotation. I find the idea of "front of the rotation" starters to be as nebulous a concept as when people start talking about a pitcher being a "number one" or an "ace". To be one of the top 50 pitchers in MLB you might only need to accumulate 3 WAR in a season. Can Ober or Ryan be those kind of guys? Sonny Gray was last year, so why not Ober & Ryan?
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