jmlease1

In terms of stock rising, this makes sense to me with these picks. Miranda was a guy twins staff always rated, but had never reflected that in the performance, so this jumps him up. Varland was an interesting pitcher, but until they ticked his fastball up, it was hard to know if he had a weapon to fall back on. both got much more interesting after last season.

I'm not opposed to bringing back Odo to eat up some innings while the young guys find their footing, I guess? A rotation of Pineda, Bundy, Ryan, Ober, and Odorizzi isn't going to make anyone leap out of their chair, but if it means that there's enough room in the budget to sign Story, then I say Faster Pussycat, Kill, Kill. If it's a choice between Pineda and Odorizzi, I take Pineda every time. If acquiring Odo means giving up a real prospect, then F no. If adding Odo means we won't make a run at Story...I'd rather make a run at Story.

I'm a Trevor Story guy, and i definitely rate him. Kinda feels like it fixes a number of things: locks down SS for several years with skilled defense and a good bat (even if he never gets back to hitting like an all-star, he's going to be good enough to make half the teams in the league envious). Finds a good use for the team's budget dollars after going nowhere on signing starting pitching. (and there's still likely enough money to resign Pineda with no real problem) yes, the team would be relying on a lot of untested starters and betting on rebounds from some guys. but I would much rather spend a big pile on a quality SS who can still play at an all-star level than spread around most of that money on a retread starter and two middle of the pack and overpaid relievers. Think about this lineup: Polanco Donaldson Buxton Kirilloff Sano Kepler Garver Arraez Story That's a nightmare to navigate. You'd have plus defenders at 4 positions (SS, 2B, CF, and RF) and Donaldson and Garver aren't any kind of drag (at least not yet). The only guy in that lineup without power is Arraez (who could also be freed up to be dealt for pitching), and you'd have bench options with Miranda, Larnach, Gordon, and Jeffers. I think Story is a hell of a fit, regardless of where Royce Lewis or Austin Martin are in their development.

Hey, you're 100% right about everything except his time at Ft. Myers. He may have just needed to a) find his footing in professional ball, and b) get out of the damn Florida State League. I certainly hope so. But the expectation was that he would mash from the start and advance quickly. Instead he was a mess for most of the time in the FSL. (I have to admit, while I like seeing guys draw walks at any stage in their career, it's less meaningful in the low minors, when many of the pitchers can't control their stuff yet) We'll see what Sabato does this year. It's going to be all about making consistent hard contact on pitches in the zone. He's shown he can hit the ball a long way. He's shown he can lay off pitches out of the zone. But he'll get eaten up by the time he gets to AA if he can't do damage consistently when he swings the bat. I'm not as concerned about a drafting a guy who might not reach the majors until he's 25 or 26. He'll be under team control for his prime and you may well have better choices with options between AAA & MLB and managing your 40 man roster against Rule 5 drafts. (This is the biggest challenge with some of these international signings at age 16; you end up having to protect them on the 40 man before you even know who they are as players, while they're still down in A-ball.)

well, low-A is a level and it's fair to say that Sabato did not hit there. He utterly failed to make consistent contact, had a brutally bad batting average and only decent power production. I think it was fair to have higher expectations for him as a 22 year-old college bat.

Well, I'm advocating for spending our budget on Trevor Story, so... But I will say that I do believe that Polanco is more likely to stay healthy at 2B than at SS. I don't know how much more likely that is, but it's a non-zero number. The bigger issue for me is that I see Polanco as being a consistent all-star quality 2B, because in addition to his excellent hitting, his defense plays there, going from being a below-average defender at SS to a good one (very good one?) at 2B. If I can get 5+ WAR out of a player by playing them at a particular position, I want to do that, even if the net WAR is the same by playing them somewhere else and having a different player fill behind. all-star quality performances raise a team's ceiling; going the other way raises a team's floor. But it's much easier to raise the floor than to raise the ceiling.

This is one of the reasons I think the Twins should go all-in on Trevor Story to play SS, who is an excellent defender at the position and a fine hitter who has some pop in his bat to go along with good plate control. I saw Dan Hayes trade proposals at The Athletic, and in order to get any of the pitchers on offer out there he was proposing giving up multiple of our best prospects and the response from the other side's beat guy was "probably not enough". If prospect capital is down in order to get a team-controlled pitcher that can slot in to the front of a rotation (and honestly, none of the pitchers being proposed were exactly Cy Young candidates: they're good pitchers who might be great in a year) then putting Arraez on the block might be the better way to go. Lock down SS. Sign Pineda. Deal Arraez & a prospect or two (but not handing off Austin Martin after a season where suddenly prospect evaluators are dropping him rapidly down the rankings) for a frontline pitcher.

I don't see this as the Twins "failing" Josh Donaldson. The first season they were exactly the kind of team that Donaldson thought he was joining: a very good one, a playoff contender, one that had a shot at a title. 2021 was a horrific season, not just because the Twins were bad, but because they were bad in a year where everyone, literally everyone, expected them to be good. They were picked by everyone to be contending for the AL Central title again, and many reputable people and projection systems had them winning it. Instead, injuries, poor play, bad starts, etc ruined the season. Season 1 of this deal, Donaldson got hurt at the wrong time. Season 2, every coin flip went the wrong way, they got off to horrific start and the season went bad. The deal the Twins made, they were going for it in the first two years of that contract, the expectation was "get all the value you can in the first two years, the second two a risk-filled". They made the playoffs in season 1 and Donaldson wasn't available to play because of injury. Season 2 it went bad. So who "failed" who? We're heading into season three and we don't know how this team is going to go. Right now, it doesn't look like it has the pitching to contend, but a) we don't know how this roster will end up, and b) we don't know how the young pitchers are going to actually do. The lineup is definitely good enough to contend, and frankly the bullpen is probably good enough as well. "Failure"? Meh. Hasn't worked out like anyone planned or hoped, but it's hard to say it was a failure for anyone. Twins lined it up and got it right in the first year of Donaldson's contract (and then Donaldson was hurt when they needed his bat the most...did he "fail"?) and didn't in year two (but none of their bets were ridiculous. I'm sorry, anyone who says they knew Colome was going to be a trash fire to start the season is lying). Year three is still to be written.

He's definitely got talent, and seems like a fine pick for where we took him. My question on him is whether or not he can get deeper into games. Even at Nebraska, he was closer to a "5 and fly" guy, so I'm curious to see how he holds up in a full professional season and whether or not he can throw 7 innings in a game more than a couple of times in Ft. Myers. He pitched really well in his cup of coffee last year, but it was only 3 starts and 4 total appearance in the minors last year, and in that he only piled up 10 innings? Maybe they were babying his arm, but he only threw 81 innings for Nebraska in 15 starts. I don't want to see college teams Rice their pitchers, but I still wish this guy had a few more innings to back up the fine rate stats.

Not that big of a question, really. I love Glen, he was terrific for us once he moved to the 'pen, but Nathan was significantly better and more dominant. Nathan deserved a longer look, I think he's Hall-worthy. He doesn't get the recognition because he overlapped with rivera, the best of all-time. (It's like Tim Raines, who was always great, but people forgot about him because he overlapped with ickey, who was the greatest leadoff man of all-time)

Because then it becomes an old boys club where marginal players get in because a bunch of their pals are voting? There's a whole lotta marginal (at best) HoFers who are in because they were Friends of Frankie Frisch who basically stacked and ran the old veteran's committee. It's essentially how Harold Baines got in, and he's simply not deserving (a very good hitter, but never put up a truly great season, and for most of his long career was just a quality starter. The PED is complicated for a lot of people, and I'm ok with pushing the main culprits off the ballot as we try to get a little better historical context on the whole thing. there are reasonable arguments to put in guys like Bonds & Clemens who were truly great players even before the cloud of PED descended, but the idea that anyone who thinks they cheated and should be excluded is just some moralizing hypocrite is going too far, especially by the people who go on to claim that well, we can't really prove anything. I really don't think their exclusion has anything to do with whether Bonds was surly with media; it's people honestly trying to square how to handle the PED era, which really was a mess. And if you view it as cheating, which many not unreasonably do, then figuring out that context for something that is supposed to be one of the highest (and last) individual honor you can achieve in the sport isn't always easy. manny ramirez was one of the most feared hitters of his day, but was also caught using PEDs after a clear rule had been established and testing protocols instituted. He was also a headcase and a pain in the ass who quit on his teams. Alex Rodriguez was the best SS of his generation, combining elite offensive production with excellent defense at a premium position to be one of the game's signature players. He was also caught violating the league's PED rules after they had been clearly delineated and testing was put into place and was suspended for an entire season. How much do you weight the fact that they knowingly and intentionally broke the rules, ones that were installed in part because of players like them? It's simple to say, "meh, who cares, all that matters is the numbers" but simple isn't always right. And if it's just about the numbers, then why have a vote at all? Why not just induct the top 4 players by WAR every year, or some other static metric, or combination of metrics? Some subjectivity is part of what makes the game and the hall fun. It's part of what expands our minds on how we look at and think about the game as well. It drives innovation and experimentation, and that's good too. How much does leadership matter in a sport like baseball which is the least interactive of any of the "Big Four" sports (football, baseball, basketball, and hockey) but also has the longest season where interpersonal dynamics can have a major impact. we all know that a player who can play multiple positions has additional value because of that positional flexibility. But how much is that worth and how much impact on the team does it have? I'm here for the arguments about the Hall. Let's never be afraid to have them. But let's be careful of ones where there's a "anyone who thinks that" clause in there...

Because if the strain of playing SS gets him injured again, it's going to impact his offense. That's the bigger issue: he doesn't look like he can hold up health-wise there. The additional strain of having to play the position, the increased athletic demand over there appears to be one that he can't really handle, especially with his bum ankle. Polanco defensively is good at 2B, but average to poor at SS. Healthy Polanco is an excellent hitter at either middle infield spot, but injured Polanco loses a lot of his power production and is a much weaker threat. The odds of him staying healthy are better at 2B. He's better defensively there as well. Arraez is a nice hitter (but with no power) and a useful player, who has bad knees at age 24, and probably can't be counted on to play 150+ games in a season in the field. He's not a good SS either, but there's enough playing time to be found for him as the backup at 2B, 3B, LF, and DH to get him 120 games at the plate again. They need a real SS, someone who can play at least average defense there, not another guy whose best position is anywhere but SS, but "can" play SS.

I'm still on the Trevor Story train. Based on our supposed budget (which I maintain is $10M less than everyone talks about it as, because I'm convinced Twins management will be escrowing at least that much "from the budget" to cover any bonuses for Buxton) we still have the money to drop $25M per year on Story. And a) I think he's worth it, b) I'd rather allocate resources to a high-value player at a premium position than on extra crappy "veteran starters" and overrated bullpen guys, c) I don't see Polanco holding up at SS: I see the move as being rough on the defense, bad for his health, and bad for his bat, and d) I don't see Arraez holding up as a regular 2B with his knees. This move is convenient, but not good. Polanco is not the answer at SS IMHO. If they won't sign Story, get a glove guy in here, trade for someone, something. But Polanco can be an all-star at 2B and we should leave him there. (and frankly, I think the front office and manager agrees with me on this one)

Always go with the heavier weight, lol. It's amazing how long some of the early weights stick on a guy. He doesn't have an elite score on any of his scouting grades, which will almost always pull down the overall even if he doesn't have a bad one. Scouts will always prefer a prospect that has at least one elite tool over someone who is average to above-average in everything. And I understand that, because as a kid advances through the system, if you don't have something elite to fall back on it gets harder and harder for you to master more advanced competition. Hajjar is interesting, and seems like a quality 2nd round pick. If they can up his velocity to the mid-90's consistently without destroying his arm and he can maintain control, then he could move up pretty darn fast. I love the fact that he's a lefty and if really does have a quality changeup that could be fun. It'll be interesting to see if the additional velocity on he fastball helps or hurts it (or had no effect at all, I suppose). The bit of deception in a great changeup is one of those things that's really hard to define, IMHO, and finding what the right differentiation between the velocity of the fastball and the change could be the difference between missing bats, especially if his fastball doesn't have a lot of spin.

A deadline deal might make sense, in part because if he's hitting well (and I think he will) and healthy then he could actually bring back an asset and not just salary relief. But right now there doesn't seem to be any kind of market for him that wouldn't net the Twins anything more than salary relief and a roster spot (and roster spots are an important asset, to be sure) and right now I don't think salary relief helps anyone other than Jim Pohlad, especially since we've done a fairly poor job of allocating dollars to this point as is. The thing on that too is...maybe the team surprises. No expectations, but a pretty darn good lineup, a couple of young pitchers step up immediately, and who knows? Donaldson's bat could be an important part of that. Holding for a deadline deal gives you better options, I think.

The reason people more broadly are down on Donaldson is actually very simple: he got hurt in game one and missed 10 games right at the start of the season. That set the tone for people's perception of him as an aging, injured player for the whole year especially as the season imploded early and his absence certainly didn't help. The reality is, he only missed 17 games the rest of the way, many of which were simply regular days off designed to keep him in the lineup. Donaldson was a very good player and worth the money he was being paid, even DHing a chunk of the time. He's still got the ability to hit well enough again this season to be a valuable member of the team, especially if the team can manage his legs well enough out the gate to keep him playing 140-150 games. And considering where the payroll stands, I wouldn't deal him just to dump salary. Let him split time with Miranda at 3B this year, let the kid learn how to play 3B from a guy who has been one of the best at it, and let him transition to a little more DH. He's a thumper in the lineup and his bat plays, even if his defense is slipping from elite to just solid.

I was fine on the Cotton pickup: low-risk, good reward. Definitely some indicators in his numbers to suggest he can be effective. I think Texas made a mistake in not retaining him, but maybe they felt they had a roster crunch or assumed the arbitration price was going to soar too high. Twins appear to have managed that price aspect well: they're paying him enough for him to want to be here, not so much that they're going to fall into the sunk cost fallacy if he stinks. The bullpen looks pretty decent to me, even now. I'd like to see one more RHP with some high gas as an option, maybe? But I just don't believe in throwing lots of dollars at relievers who are frequently so fungible, and would rather construct my bullpen this way, where you cycle through some guys on the back end, convert failed starters out of your system, and don't overpay on guys that have limited utility. Taylor Rogers is worth spending his contract on this year because a) he's been consistently good for several years, b) there's no guaranteed obligation, and c) he has clear trade value. But I would always hesitate on throwing big money on FA relievers, especially if it's attached to a multi-year deal. There are just better options. Cotton is an underrated signing, I think. The cost is good, there's decent upside, and it's easy to move on if it busts.

Why don't you see him sticking at SS? He appears to have the skills to compete there and of all his tools right now the glove looks the best. The concerns seem to be more about his offensive potential, and if he's a plus defensively, it's certainly easier to absorb a bad bat when it's at SS, even in today's game. I don't see him rushing through the system, but if he can start at Ft. Myers this season and go one level per year, this will look like a very good pick, I think. I'm always less worried about a player's power production a) in general, as I think it's easier to add, and b) for an 18 year old.

It's still a high-profile program, though. They go to the College World Series, their players get drafted, and every player thinks they're invulnerable, so...

You could easily put Balazovic and Winder on this list too.

I suspect the height had something to do with it, and there were some questions about what secondary offerings Petty had, since he basically only threw fastballs in high school. I wouldn't be surprised if California vs. New Jersey had something to do with it: long seasons in CA with scouts everywhere and the hype gets going fast. Jersey? Less so. (Not like playing in Kenosha or something like that, but still) I'm always nervous about picking high school pitchers, but in this spot, it's a smart risk to take. The upside is worth it. It's much scarier in the top five (I'm having Kohl Stewart flashbacks).

If I had to bet, I'd say he spend the whole year at Ft. Myers, in part because of his age and the sophisticated complex the Twins have built up there, giving them maximum resources in place to support his development. Unless he's just crushing it so thoroughly that it demands a promotion to Cedar Rapids. But I would bet on Ft. Myers this year and if he's performing well, more aggressive promotion to follow after that (If he's doing well starting the year in Cedar Rapids, an early promotion to AA, etc). And I'm fine with that. The kid is 19 with a thunderbolt for a right arm. Get him off to the best, smartest start you can at Ft. Myers and it will serve him well to advance quickly through the system. I'd say if things go well he'll be in MLB late 2024/early2025.

we'll know a lot more about how fast he can progress after this season. If he can dominate in a full-season of pro ball, then he could move quickly, especially because it doesn't look like he has major mechanical issues they really need to iron out. But 2023 is pretty unrealistic.

Dobnak is an easy choice to bounce back simply because he should be healthy. A healthy Dobnak isn't a bad pitcher and should be able to slide in as a 5th starter type. I like the Cotton pickup as a bullpen guy because he's cheap, right-handed and has a shot to be very solid. I don't know that bounce back is really the right category for him, because he was pretty good for Texas last year. I don't see him as a starting option; he really hasn't done that since 2017...and he wasn't great at it. I'm guessing Texas looked at his WHIP and didn't think the success was all that sustainable, which is fair, but he seems worth taking a shot on. I think his long-term success in the bullpen depends on two things: whether his reduced hr/9 is a result of the move to the bullpen and his current approach, or a small sample mirage and if he can keep the BB/9 manageable. Bundy is unlikely to be the guy he was in 2020, but 2019 is doable. The 2020 performance screams small sample size. The real question is whether or not he's healthy and if he can keep the ball in the park. When he's keeping the ball in the park at a reasonable rate, he's a decent pitcher who can chew up innings. When it spikes up over 2 per 9, he's in the trash heap. (see 2021 and 2018) He was a decent risk to take a flyer on, but expecting anything like 2020 is foolish.

It's going to be very fun to see what he can do at 19 in A-ball. He doesn't look like a guy who needs to grow/fill-in for his body all that much, which should help him. But he's going to need to learn more about how to pitch, how to set up hitters, etc because you simply can't destroy everyone in pro ball with 100 mph gas like you can in HS. If he can master that changeup then he's going to be destructive. The fastball should play on anyone, and if he's got an off-speed pitch to play up against lefties then he's going to be in really good shape because that fastball-slide combo should be deadly against righties. High school pitchers are risky, but this is the kind of upside play I like to see when picking late in the round.