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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    one reason for his improved performance and lower BABIP could be an improved defense; the Twins are shifting even more, Arraez appears to have improved defensively...again, we expect regression. Dobnak isn't likely to have the best ERA in baseball, or the best ERA+ in baseball. But his FIP is still excellent and if he's keeping the ball in the park he's going to be fine. There's also the interesting question of counter-programming for a pitcher like Dobnak. With the focus on velocity, pitching up in the zone, and more hitter on the all or nothing plan...we may be seeing that a pitcher like Dobnak may benefit by utilizing a pitching style that hitters aren't seeing often (especially in a weird year like this one). It's an interesting question, but this is also a year where a guy might be able to ride small sample size results. Regardless, Dobnak has been great for the Twins so far and they've really needed him in the rotation.
  2. jmlease1
    Berrios looked like poop. It was pretty painful to watch, his command was just awful again. But here's the thing: his problem is his command, not his stuff. He's struggling to locate his fastball and his curve, he's not getting first-pitch strikes, and it's burying him in a hole every inning. But it's not like his velocity is off or his curveball isn't curving. In a normal year, it would be easier to work through this, but every start is magnified now. It's hard to come up with a "sore arm/back" injury and there's nowhere really to send anyone for a rehab assignment (not sure Saint Paul camp really counts) where they can work out some of this. The stuff is still there, the track record is there, and it's really hard for me to believe that Berrios is suddenly trash. It's 5 starts. In a normal year we're in late April and there's plenty of time for him to work through something like this. It's clear to me that the ending of spring training, pause, then restart has messed up Berrios and he's struggling to get back into a program that works for him. I think he's going to be fine...it's just that he doesn't have as many starts to work with to get there. He's still a great talent and an important part of this rotation. Time to Wes Johnson to really earn his money and figure out a way to help Berrios find that command again in
  3. jmlease1
    Rooker. The right-handed bat would be of higher value off the bench, I think and he's earned the chance. Frankly, I would have preferred calling up Nick Gordon over adding cast-off Vargas too, but this FO has earned plenty of rope with me looking at their decision-making.
  4. jmlease1
    Another really nice outing by Dobnak. Funny how this season is playing out for Dobnak kinda like it was in Gleeman's sim season, lol. Josh Bell was tough. That's why he was the Pirate all-star last year, he's a very nice player. Dunno if the rest of the team will get there in time for him to be part of a winner in Pittsburgh, but he's a good player and a guy you can't make a mistake to. Alcala will learn how to handle a guy like that (I hope!), good experience for him to face someone like that in a lower-leverage situation. Buxton's double was encouraging. He didn't look like he was flailing at that ball, hopefully that helps him get it going.
  5. jmlease1
    I was a fan of Maeda before and I'm very impressed so far. He knows how to pitch and he's got the stuff to compete. Sure it's early and a small sample, but the results are exactly what we were hoping for. We won't likely be able to really evaluate if the Twins have helped him unlock something consistently until much later in the season, but the results are very encouraging so far. Having a core of Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda for next year's staff regardless of anything else is also something that I think is a good thing.
  6. jmlease1
    I think Garver is a SSS issue not a mechanical or approach one. I don't think the team is terribly worried about him either, especially considering how many players have struggled on offense across MLB so far. It's an odd thing: people are 100% correct in saying "it's only 10 games, calm down" but at the same time, 10 games ain't 10 games this year. But I think Garver will be fine and will get on track soon.
  7. jmlease1
    Thorpe just didn't have great stuff or command last night and doesn't really know how to pitch through that yet. It's not like he was awful. He probably would have been better served this year to start in AAA, work on stuff, build up consistency, etc but this year is what it is. I still like his potential. Alcala was exciting. He can definitely throw some serious heat. I think I agree with Morneau that he just needed to get comfortable out there. He looked like he was trusting his stuff and the fastball started getting into the upper 90's...he looks like a weapon in the back of the bullpen sooner rather than later.
  8. jmlease1
    15 pitches from Romo to close out the game, all of them between 77-80 mph. Sliders and...changeups? Is it still a changeup if it's the fastest pitch you've thrown? He's unbelievable.
  9. jmlease1
    Guess I must have been influenced by Smalley talking about a missed pitch...
  10. jmlease1
    Dobnak didn't get a lot of favors from the inconsistent strike zone last night; when he hits his spots and doesn't get the call he's going to rack up a high pitch count. I was impressed how well he hung in there and didn't let it get in his head. Hopefully Donaldson's removal was just precautionary and he doesn't miss significant time.
  11. jmlease1
    Very nice performance by Hill. I think the combination of the expanded roster and Hill's age/injury status had them playing safe with him last night; with that pitch count I would expect him to roll out for the 6th under normal circumstances. But I can't say I have a problem with not pushing it and allowing him to build up to 80-90 pitches, especially with the bullpen depth we have. Duffey looked great, really nice to see. He's a weapon, and will definitely be a go-to guy in late innings. The Sergio Romo Experience remains a surreal, hilarious, and awesome show. He's like 9000 years old, he's basically got one pitch, he's got a trick knee that could go on him at any minute...and he can still make hitters look silly. There aren't too many pitchers who can cross up a major league hitter with an 85 mph "fastball". He's a delight.
  12. jmlease1
    Can we talk about how our lineup is so deep that Miguel "34 HRs and a 138 OPS+ in 2019" Sano was hitting 8th last night?!? We've got a few guys off to slow starts this year but there are no break in this lineup. Solid outing by Homer Bailey; this is why they signed him. I think he's going to remind us a little of Odorizzi in that he may not be able to get deep into games consistently with pitch counts well up in the 80's through 5, but with this bullpen that's something that's manageable.
  13. jmlease1
    Maeda looked very good, I thought. I think Morneau nailed it when he said he was getting a little fatigued in the 5th, leading to the runs. He lost a little of the early sharpness and wasn't finishing guys off well. Right move to pull him after 5. But it was really fun to watch his approach to the game with what and how he threw. I think he's going to be a nice addition.
  14. jmlease1
    Berrios just didn't have good command of his pitches. The stuff is still good, but it looks like he needed some more time and game play to get sharp. I think he'll be fine, and it's not like the ChiSox are a bad hitting team. Donaldson may not have brought rain last night, but he still made a couple of fine defensive plays along with taking good ABs. He's a great fit and it was great to see him finally make his debut. And what can you say about Kepler? Seemed determined to show that he breakout last year wasn't a fluke or because of juiced baseballs, that's for sure. Keep on with your boomstick, Max!
  15. jmlease1
    I'm ok with the playoff expansion, in part because they're not making the new round a bunch of 1-off play-in style games. The better teams will still have the best chance to win a three game series. This also adds a little more fairness with the schedules being more imbalanced than we've seen in some time. I don't think I want this all the time, but I can live with it in this context. First Bomba of the year? Sano. (As my friend's small child used to scream at Target Field..."Let's Go Snow!" hee.)
  16. jmlease1
    Tough beat for Blankenhorn who was probably right on the bubble. But Whitefield makes sense as insurance against Buxton not being ready or wanting to make sure they can find some rest for him, etc. I don't think they're going to be worried about service time issues with Whitefield or burning an option year like they might be with Celestino. Overall the roster makes sense. I was rooting for Blankenhorn, especially with Astudillo down with the COVID test, but that's the way it goes. I still think he may have a future as a super-utility guy: positional flexibility will be his ticket to MLB and it was great to hear that he was taking reps at a lot of different positions in "2nd camp".
  17. jmlease1
    No, the only true CF on the team and the guy who had a 114 OPS+ last year. The best defensive player in all of baseball. That guy. Garver should be on this list (as I stated before) because elite offense at catcher is really rare, especially with a guy who is still a quality player defensively (and Garver appears to have put himself there). But Cruz, as great as he was, is more replaceable: he's a DH. Kepler, who had the bust out season we were all waiting for, plays a position where the Twins have depth . That's why for me it's Polanco, Buxton, Garver as the 3 most irreplaceable Twins: great production at critical positions where there's not an ideal replacement option. Then it's Berrios as the best pitcher on the team on a roster where the Twin's strength is depth over high end production; we can fill in for him, but there's almost certainly a significant drop off. Last spot is probably Donaldson because a) no ideal replacement, elite production & defense, and c) psychological deflation if the big FA signing goes down.
  18. jmlease1
    I'd move Buxton up. When he's right, he's insanely impactful and changes the whole team. When he's out, we lose in so many different areas and he's just not replaceable on this roster. Kepler has stepped up in CF, but it's not his best position. No one has his kind of speed and the guy can basically do anything. Everyone else is more replaceable. I mostly agree with the list, but I think I would put Garver in over Cruz: DH is just inherently more replaceable, and Garver's hitting at catcher is a weapon many clubs just don't have, and while Avila and La Tortuga could hold things together for a while, neither offers the kind of top-end production that Garver brings. We have hitters in the high minors that could step in as a DH and might really bring it...plus at Cruz's age you just never know if some of the hitting skill might start to fade out.
  19. jmlease1
    Unfortunately, luck and health are two factors that are mostly outside of a player or team's control. But they are also important factors that can be the difference between greatness and not. I'm not giving up on Buxton. He's a terrific talent who looks like he's putting it together at the plate and is already elite in the field and on the bases. He also seems like a genuinely good dude too. I don't think his injuries are a matter of him "getting it" at this point: he's had some bad luck and that's the way it goes.
  20. jmlease1
    It's a really really good collection of hitters. I'm not sure how to structure it, but I really wonder about the effect of a lineup with no real holes in it. Because that's one the areas where the Twins are really excelling right now: there's no breaks in there. There are no easy outs and there are a ton of players who can do real damage if you make a mistake (Donaldson, Cruz, Kepler, Garver, Sano, and Rosario are all guys who could hit 30 dingers in a regular season. I mean, wow.). The worst hitter in the lineup is...Buxton? Last year he was nicely above league average with a 114 OPS+. Rosario? You can get him chasing, but he's also a guy who can hit anything and drilled 32 hrs last year. There aren't all that many teams who don't have at least one guy as a regular who hits below league average. Yankees did last year, so did the Houston Bucket Thumpers. When you have zero holes in the lineup, and you have a guy who can challenge for a batting title, multiple guys who could run for the hr title...yeah, this is one of the best lineups in baseball.
  21. jmlease1
    To be the ace, you have to be able to get deep into games. Even if you kill it for 5 innings, you still can't be the ace if you're consistently coming out without finishing 6. Part of the responsibility of the #1 pitcher on a staff is turning that outing that saves the bullpen, and I'm just not sure Odorizzi can do it consistently enough. He doesn't finish off guys fast/easily enough. I'm not saying he's not a good pitcher, and I'm very happy we brought him back for another spin. I was happy when we acquired him, and it's definitely paid off. But I think Berrios has better odds of being the ace, especially in a short season. Berrios seems to have some challenges staying sharp/strong during the long grind of the season, having some noticeable dips mid/later in the year. The shorter season may work to his advantage. But regardless, he's shown he has the stuff to be the guy.
  22. jmlease1
    Rooker? The bigger issue is having a guy whose true position is CF being ready. Celestino is still a few years away; the defense is probably good enough already, but he's likely to get overwhelmed at the plate. Royce Lewis can probably do it, but a) they'd need him to spend at least a chunk of a minor league season learning the position right now...and once he moves to the OF it's hard to see him ever coming back to the INF. And despite Polanco and Arraez being locked in right now in the middle INF, I doubt the Twins are ready to move their top SS prospect out of there. Dang it, Buxton just may be too injury prone. This sucks. I hope it's just a sprain and everyone (including me) is overreacting.
  23. jmlease1
    Fernando Romero should be pushed down. Between ineffectiveness and his visa problems, he's a non-factor. It's a shame, but it's hard not to think of him as a bust.
  24. jmlease1
    It'd be nice to have Kuechel on the Twins rather than the ChiSox, but I didn't like the contract for him then, and I don't like it now. And I'd certainly rather have Donaldson over Kuechel. That's the thing with Cron or Smoak; I would have been fine bringing Cron back at a reasonable price, but I'd rather have Donaldson and moving Sano. Smoak would have been a good replacement for Cron...but I'd still rather have Donaldson. You can't have every player, eventually you run out of spots. Kuechel is the only one we really had room for that we could have let a lesser player go...but the contract means we don't have the room to sign Donaldson, and I think he's more impactful. Maybin is the only one that's really in consideration for a "The Twins should have signed this guy (and not gone the route they did)" IMHO. But I understand why they like their young OF depth...and if Maybin was looking for an everyday role, he wasn't going to sign here, because no way does he beat out any of the Twins starters. So he's probably not really in consideration.
  25. jmlease1
    A bit unfair. They should pro-rate his suspension too.
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