jmlease1

I feel much better about our rotation depth this year than last year. there are still question marks, but that's normal for most teams and there are enough options that if some of them bust we have other avenues to try. I feel like the FO has done a good job in making sure the floor should be high. If Dobnak, Smeltzer, and/or Thorpe see significant time this year it doesn't feel like one of those "Oh, God!" moments. (If all three of them are in the rotation at the end of the season...then we almost certainly got hit by a bad rash of injuries and that's just the way it goes sometimes)

I think Celestino could hold down the position defensively just fine right now; the fear is that a) he wouldn't be able to hit his weight in MLB right now, and exposing him to that kind of barrage might stunt his development as a hitter for multiple years. When guys aren't hitting they're going to tinker with their approach and he could go from a guy who just needs plenty of reps in the minors to build a hitting base to a guy who is all over the place and has no core to build off of as a hitter. Royce Lewis doesn't have the experience in CF to really be a wise option as a CF replacement at this point. And he could get overwhelmed by MLB pitching at this point too. The best option is going to be moving Kepler over again and letting Wade/Cave fill in the corner if Buxton misses significant time. If he gets a major injury that's going to wipe out the season for him by June, then you can look at trade options too.

That's why OPS+ is part of the comparison: whether the ball was juiced or not isn't going to have a significant impact on OPS+, because that's a comp to the current season's league average. So if the ball is juiced and everyone has an extra 15% in slugging % or if it's a dead ball and the slugging % is down 20% it doesn't matter: the comp is against league average, allowing you to assess a player from very different eras based on how much better they were than the league average hitter. Donaldson & Sano could be one of the best hitting pairs in history if you measure it based on having two guys who both cross a high threshold. Otherwise, you have to consider things like 1981 Phillies Mike Schmidt/Pete Rose (OPS+ of 198/118) where one guy in the pair really carried it. But we're also really talking about them being possibly the best power hitting pair of corner infielders too. Otherwise guys like 1987 Boston Wade Boggs/Dwight Evans (Evans was their primary 1B that year...barely) who turned in 174/154 OPS+ that season, but are DQ'd by the HR requirement. That's what pushes Hrbek/Gaetti out of the mix too: their best "combo" season was 1988 Hrbek had an OPS+ of 150 while Gaetti clocked in at 148, but neither cleared 30 HRs. (that was easily Gaetti's best offensive season in MN, and his next best wasn't one of Hrbek's best) They have the talent. Let's hope they have the health this year to do it. Should be a lot of fun to watch!

Yeah, I don't know he needs to change his approach. If he can stay anywhere near league average slugging while getting on base nearly 37-40% of the time, he's going to be a wonderful player. I love having a guy who has the high average-high on base % combo, and as long as he doesn't fall through the floor on power and start posting slugging that's consistently under .400 he's going to be a wonderful asset. Players who get more walks than Ks are really valuable, and I'd love Arraez to be one of those guys for the next 5 years. (Pedroia did it 4 times and came close a couple more) Home runs are wonderful, but this team doesn't have a shortage on power. I think it's really good to have a few table setters sprinkled in among the big boppers, especially ones who can collect hits like Arraez.

Hackimer feels like he's got the million-dollar arm/five-cent head thing going on, though. He's got to make sure he's got all the other stuff settled. The talent is there, but he hasn't shown he's a guy that can be counted on yet.

I'm not sure I like Adrianza more defensively at 1B. For a first baseman, he's a fine shortstop... But I do think the Wiel question is an interesting one. He's not seen as a top prospect by any means, but he's almost certainly going to be a more consistent defensive player than Rooker (who basically hasn't played 1B for the Twins yet) and he had a fine season at the plate last year in his first repeat at AAA. If he shows better plate discipline and gets off to a fast start, he could play his way on the team if/when injury strikes. But he's not on the 40-man (neither is Rooker), which makes me think they'd be more likely to bring up Gordon or Cave/Wade and let a combo platter or Marwin, Adrianza, and Garver handle 1B

Ryu has the best numbers, but the highest risk of injury. Wheeler has the best upside and projectable future, but it's still a projection (and he's had injuries too) Bumgarner has the track record & big game performance, with likely age-related dropoff pending. Maeda probably has the best balance between performance and risk? In terms of upside, I'd rank them like this: 1. Ryu, 2. Wheeler, 3. Maeda, 4. Bumgarner In terms of risk, I'd rank them: 1. Maeda, 2. Wheeler, 3. Bumgarner, 4. Ryu

Our depth at 1B is a bit odd: Sano is clearly the starter and expected to take most of the time there, but we don't really have an identified backup and clear depth if he misses extended time (which Sano has, unfortunately). Marwin fields the position well, but his bat is pedestrian there. Garver deserves some time there, but having his bat at catcher is such a huge advantage that spending significant time at 1B isn't where you want to go. Adrianza can play pretty much anywhere, but he's not a 1B. The minors is interesting too: Rooker can probably play it, but hasn't gotten much time at it so might be the Butcher of Cairo over there. (Adam Dunn sure was, and there's a lot of similarity in those guys' profiles) Kirilloff is starting to get some run there, but we don't know when he'll be ready, though I suspect it's soon. be interested to see what his D really looks like? Right now, might we actually pull up Zander Wiel if Sano gets unlucky and misses significant time? Plenty of guys who *can* play 1B...outside of Sano there's not as much depth for guys who are clearly targeted to 1B. i think Sano is going to do well there this year. He won't amaze with the D, and there will probably be a blooper or three that will make people think he's worse than he is, but i think overall he'll be solid on D and elite on offense. The only thing keeping him from 40 HRs this year is whether he's healthy enough to play 130+ games. I'd love for him to keep the Ks under 200 for the season, but I'll live with it if he's got the OPS+ of 130-140...

I'd vote Blankenhorn. His path to the majors right now isn't an easy one, and the more positional flexibility he has the better off he'll be. If I'm Blankenhorn I start going to the Josh Donaldson 3B School and make damn sure I have perfect attendance and take lots of notes. If Blankenhorn can become a legit option at 2B/3B/corner OF he's going to improve his chances of advancing in this or any organization significantly. Marwin is almost certainly gone after this season and Blankenhorn could line himself up to be the next super-utility guy. Positional flexibility is still really valuable, even with the 26th man. Oh, and if ol' Travis wants to learn how to keep the Ks in check while adding some walks and upping the power line a bit, that'd be just fine too. I hear Donaldson knows a few things about that stuff.

It's a sign of how deep this team is and how well our development has gone that the only significant concern at catcher we have this year is "What if Mitch Garver gets really hurt?" 3/4 of the teams in baseball would kill for our situation. We have an elite starting catcher, a veteran backup who compliments our starter almost perfectly, a super utility player who can serve as the 3rd catcher on the roster, and 2 solid catching prospects in AA either of whom are possible contenders for the backup job in 2021. About the only way this gets better is if a) Garver already had another elite hitting season under his belt so people are less worried about regression, either Rortvedt or Jeffers was already in AAA, and c) we had a hot catching prospect in Cedar Rapids as the next one in the pipeline. These are all luxury items in a league where so many teams get very little production from the catcher position.

Some of this isn't really new: people have been talking about not swinging at bad pitches forever, and the idea of crushing the pitch you want is pretty old school too. the difference is we're tracking and quantifying all of it now. Instead of having a feeling about whether a guy is going after too many sliders in the dirt, we have the numbers. Where process over results really helps is with things like exit velocity and barrel rate, two metrics that if you're killing it in there but not getting hits/home runs/extra base hits etc we can tell someone to not screw with their approach and know that the hits are almost certainly going to come. It's a long season and sometimes guys are going to be unlucky. I think the Twins are being smart in their integration of advanced statistics and new technologies, because they seem to be measured in it. They're not demanding that all players follow the same regimen or track 14 different stat profiles. Guys who want more, get more. Coaches (with the analytics team) are the ones who are getting the burden of interpreting & translating the statistical analysis for the players so that it can translate to positive action, not analysis paralysis. It's nice to move into the modern world. I'm always a little baffled by the anti-stats crowd. baseball has always been the most statistically driven major sport. The only thing that's changed is what numbers are looked at and how much importance they have. For example, think about the classic "Triple Crown" stats: Batting Average, Home Runs, and RBIs. Batting Average is still an important stat! It's not valued as highly right now across baseball, but being able to hit for a high average is still a great skill (thank you, Luis Arraez) to have. (and probably an underrated one right now) Home Runs are still the straw that stirs the drink in baseball. More guys are hitting them, but the guys who hit the most are still the guys who get the biggest bucks (for position players). RBIs are still an interesting stat, it's just that we now know they're not a great determinative stat about the player who collects them. If a guy collects 150 RBIs you still know they had a heck of a season and now we know that it can tell you things about how good the lineup in front of that player was. There's still value in being able to look at one stat and immediately knowing those things.

I'm still on the Royce Lewis train. the tools are all there, and I love that his speed plays as a baserunner; I'm of the opinion that stolen bases are undervalued in MLB with this focus on station-to-station baseball and home run output. Players who can put pressure on defense with their speed and baserunning have under-valued utility. the swing is a bit of a concern, but he certainly didn't have any problems with it in the AFL. Let's see how he does with a full year in AA and a little tinkering. A maturing body and plenty of ABs against high value pitchers could be exactly what he needs. I think the future is really high on him either as a SS or a CF. Anyone who wants him in a deal is going to have to give up a top of the rotation starter under contract/control for more than 1 year. I can live with trading him if the deal is there to really go for the title; I can't live with getting a mid-rotation starter and an A-ball lottery ticket.

They also may be looking at his AA season as more indicative of his ability and not caring (or knowing) that he was fighting through a lingering wrist injury. I'm a big fan of Kirilloff. I hope he gets plenty of time in the OF and not just at 1B, because he would be a great replacement for Rosario if needed and Sano is going to be locked in at 1B for the next few years. But If he can be solid at both a corner OF spot and 1B...the job sharing between a few spots gets easier to fit everyone in when Cruz retires. I love his hit tool. I think he's a guy who can hit for high average along with plenty of power and it's going to be fun to watch him roll.

I think Balazovic was left off because he was less of a comp to Graterol. There's been basically no discussion about Balazovic ending up in the bullpen, there's no injury concerns there to date, there's no real pitch mix concerns that could push him to the bullpen, and he's not an 100mph fastball guy. (like Colina and Duran). It's not about whether he's in the same class, talent-wise, just that the pitching profile doesn't line up as well as the other three. Having Duran, Colina, and Alcala definitely makes it easier to trade Graterol. That depth is nice, and it's never bad to keep pitchers like that coming through the pipeline.

CF is one of the bigger areas of concern; as much as I like Max Kepler we're much better off with him crushing it in one of the corners. I'm guessing this is one of the reasons they put Celestino on the 40 man this year to ensure they had a plus defender in CF in the pipeline. Kepler is fine in CF, but moving him means shuffling multiple positions which is never great. We don't have a true backup defensively right now. Cave & Wade are just overstretched there. Catcher is a little bit of a concern, but that's an issue on every team: if they lose their primary catcher, they're almost certainly going to be thin/stretching a guy/hoping someone from the minors can step up before they're "ready". Frankly, the Twins are better off than most with Avila having been a quality starter before, Astudillo being functional back there and Rortvedt & Jeffers getting close. SS is probably the 2nd area of depth concern not because they don't have guys who can play there but because they don't have a true plus defender there who is ready to step in at need. Adrianza is solid enough, but stretched as a starter. Arraez is not a SS. Nick Gordon can play there, but is more valuable for his bat. It's like the CF question all over again. If Polanco goes down for an extended period, it's going to hurt. Of course, losing an all-star for an extended period hurts regardless of depth! Overall, the Twins depth is in really good shape right now. The MLB roster has quality and positional flexibility and there are multiple players in AAA or even in AA that look ready to contribute now or soon.

Larnach is definitely proof that you should draft talent over need in baseball. Being long in OFs is just fine, and you can always trade prospects to address need later. So get the best guy you can. Larnach looks terrific: high floor with a nice ceiling, projects to be an above average corner OF with all-star potential, depending on how his D holds up and his power progresses. The power progression is going to be interesting. He's got solid pop now but he's more a doubles guy right now than a big masher. I just hope that plussing up the home run stroke doesn't lead to bushels of additional Ks. If he can add another 50 pts of SLG% while keeping that k rate where it is, he's going to be a complete hitter. As much as I recognize the importance of hitting home runs and power production, I think hitting for average is getting to be an under-valued skill and it's really nice to have a few .300 hitters sprinkled all over the lineup. Very nice player. Good development path. Really puts the Twins in a good position if an OF gets hurt, gets too expensive, or they have an opportunity to add a really high impact player to try and win the title.

Cave might be better value than Rosario because the D is better the hitting is close and the cost is much lower, but Rosario is still the better player for now. I'm be more positive on a Cave breakout if he could hold up in CF. But for all that Cave is showing he's a better defensive player right now than Rosario...he hasn't been good. It's also problematic to take rate stats and project them across a season to compare someone to a guy who actually played a full year. Players are more likely to get exposed if they're overstretched in a full season of ABs. Guys are more likely to have slumps that are driven by nagging injuries but the team needs them to be in the lineup anyways and play through it. We've never seen Cave do that in MLB; we have seen that from Rosario. Cave is a useful piece, and he would have made trading Rosario less painful, but it's unclear that he's actually good enough to take the job. If he's going to be a corner guy, he need to be more consistent on D or improve the power numbers to be more than just a decent player. Because it doesn't seem like the Twins have much confidence on his ability to play CF.

May is the biggest name here to me and the toughest one to know what his market is. He was excellent last year, good but dinged up the year before. The talent is there, but it's hard to be sure on his health. But he'd be a great set-up man to keep around...would he do 3/$12M? Hard to go longer on a reliever. Odorizzi is a guy that will draw a lot of interest if he has another year like this, but I suspect someone might throw 4/$80M at him, if not more (5/$100M?). That gets harder, which is why i'm glad we added Maeda. Marwin is gone after this year. He's a useful player, but his utility is declining as he ages and is less capable of playing SS/2B/3B and his hit tool doesn't make him a plus guy in the OF, especially if his D slips more. We signed him to the right contract initially and will likely allow him to move on quietly. Hill/Bailey were intentionally signed to 1-year deals. Hill may be cooked regardless, but at best he's a guy that you go year to year on. bailey is younger, but unless he has a heck of a renaissance, I don't see him in the Twins plans, and even if he does have that big comeback year...the risk is pretty high it might be a fluke year. Not a lot of downside in moving on. Again Maeda mitigates the risk here.

I'm a big fan of Balazovic. My one concern is whether or not his slider and/or changeup are going to be sharp enough to be significant weapons for him as he ascends into tougher competition. The command is good, which is great to see at this age; that and a good fastball will mow down single A pretty effectively. But he's going to need the secondary offerings to continue to develop to keep finishing off batters efficiently. I really hope they look to get him to 120-130 innings this year. Physically, he's developed enough to handle that kind of load and we need to know if he can manage it. The peripherals on this guy look fantastic. Plenty of Ks, solid control (which could improve if his slider/change improve and allow him to end ABs faster), keeps the ball in the park, looks hard to square up on...all signs are that he's on the path to be a top of the rotation guy. I love that he's done so well at low & high A ball at such a young age.

Projection systems are always going to struggle with outliers and sudden leaps forwards or collapses. Even trying to adjust/predict for injury (with is really hard to do with any accuracy), they're going to "miss" a lot. What they're best for is to look at a team's baseline. If you've got average luck, and no player who isn't seen as a huge injury risk gets hurt...here's where you're likely to be, factoring in regression from career years, marginal improvement from younger players, etc. Then you can look at the team and ask yourself: what are the things we need to break well on to succeed? Where are the pitfalls we need to avoid? I find the projections useful to set a baseline, I don't expect them to be accurate in the aggregate.

I like this guy a lot. The fastballs look great and if he can develop that curve against righties and the change against lefties then he's going to have the arsenal to stick in the rotation. AA should be a good test for him this year: more advanced hitters who won't flail at everything and more guys who might not get overwhelmed by the heat, so his command should have to improve for him to dominate. I think the bullpen is deep enough they won't be looking to move him in as a late season flamethrower: his development track as a starter looks good and he could be competing for a job in the rotation in 2021 if he has a strong year. I'd love to see him continue to roll and be the 5th starter in 2021 and a top 3 guy for years to come. He's got the stuff. If he can refine it he's going to be great.

Ha! I was close.

Blake Parker bWAR: 2018 1.0, 2019 0.3. Kenley Jansen bWAR: 2018 0.6, 2019 0.2 (the number of appearances are similar across both years) I'm not saying I want Blake Parker over Kenley Jansen. My point is about how variable relief pitching can be in MLB. Jansen was one of the top relievers in the game, looked like he might be on a HoF track...and he's been just another guy the last 2 years. He might, in fact, be cooked which is one of the reasons Maeda went to the pen and why Graterol is attractive to them...but even for the Dodgers they're not loving paying a reliever $18M. Sure, he might bounce back, but it doesn't take a lot for a reliever's performance to fall off a cliff and fast.

I've been one of the biggest Rortvedt boosters at Twins Daily, but even I have to admit that Jeffers has passed him on the prospect rankings at this point. And they did give Rortvedt an "honorable mention"; I'm guessing he probably clocks in somewhere around 22-25? Jeffers just looks like he has a significantly stronger hit tool at this point, and if his D has improved to near what the Twins staff is saying...he's on a great track for MLB. Rortvedt is a year younger, but he's also never hit like Jeffers.

You might be the only one. Raley cleared a .500 SLG in a season for the first time in his pro career last year, not coincidentally when AAA started using the...lively...MLB baseball. He's a better fielder than Rooker, but hard to see him as a better power prospect.