jmlease1

It's an interesting question: how locked in should you be to the "avoid the 3rd time through" strategy? How do you evaluate how much of a pitcher's struggles the 3rd time through against a team's best hitters is due to fatigue or familiarity? If it's familiarity, then a fairly rigid approach makes sense. If it's due more to fatigue, then you have to think about it a little more, especially if a guy is at 75 pitches and rolling along. nice to see Kohl Stewart have another good outing, though obviously September production is always a little suspect (see also Parmelee, Chris). The decline in BBs is exactly what he needs to be doing and it's nice to see how close his FIP is to his ERA. he's a very interesting case right now, and I think the Twins were fortunate he slipped through Rule 5 last year.

By that formulation, we wouldn't have either Royce Lewis (who appears to be on a star track) or Alex Kirilloff (who is on track to be an elite hitter). Passing on either of those guys would have been a mistake, I think. Blanket rules like this are how teams get into trouble. If you lock yourself too tightly into a formulation like that you miss guys who might not fit the mold perfectly but could bring elite strengths. That sort of rigidity in thinking is how good players got passed up because they had the wrong body type or other nonsense. The bigger problem here is the Twins thought they were smarter than everyone else and could turn college relievers into starters, and it completely busted out. Kohl Stewart was drafted out of high school and his development has taken a while...but he made the major leagues. 39 players were selected in the "1st round" in 2013, and of those 13 have still never played in the majors...including the #1 overall pick, a college pitcher. Despite this being Stewart's first shot at the majors, he actually ranks 14th in bWAR when compared to his 1st round peers. Looking at the rest of the pitchers drafted below him, the only one that jumps out where you go clearly, "yeah, wish we had that guy" is Sean Manaea...who just had season-ended shoulder surgery. So maybe this pick isn't ending up so awful.

which is unquestionably a major reason why we have a new front office. the strategy of drafting college relievers to turn them into starters was a major bust. Much as I like out of the box thinking and trying to find an efficiency no one else might be capitalizing on, this one was a serious fail. I can't think of a single reliever we successfully converted into a starter in this period. Ugh. Kohl Stewart is an interesting case. The twins make have been fortunate he slipped through the Rule 5 draft last year, because he's got some things that are working for him. Inducing tons of ground balls, keeping the ball in the park, and frequent weak contact can be a successful formula...but he's got to improve the control. The free passes will keep him in borderline status if he can't reign them in. he's going to have enough base runners as it is when balls inevitably bleed through, so handing out extras via walks will make him a guy who simply can't get through enough innings. but he's interesting. He's not that old. He's got a couple of pitches that are working for him. If the team can just refine that approach a little, sharpen his pitches up a little, improve that control a bit...he could be a guy that could chew up a lot of a innings for you and keep you in games. With the focus on launch angle and power hitting, and so many players not worrying about Ks...maybe there's a place for a guy who induced wimpy grounders. Maybe he could be a guy that frustrates the crap out of these power hitters who can't quite square up on his stuff. but he's got to throw more strikes, because right now the book on him is going to be "don't chase anything".

I love Kepler as an OF. I'm not happy about his growth as a hitter. RF is considered to be an offensive position, so if you're not generating offense there, you need to be making up for it elsewhere, and that's harder to do. I had Kepler pegged as the most likely player to have a breakout season, and the reality is he stood in place. When you need your young players to continue to develop, that's frustrating. In three seasons he may have revealed himself as a slightly below average hitter who plays excellent defense in a non-premium defensive position, with a little positional flexibility. Am I wrong, or doesn't that profile more like a 4th OF than a starter? FanGraphs seems to agree with me. fWAR of 1.2, 1.4, and 2.4 over the last three years with this year needing a BIG leap in his defensive stats to get him to starter status. I love Max Kepler. I'm rooting for Max Kepler. but if I'm the Twins, I'm worried about RF. (In addition to being worried about 3B) The twins have options at 1B, 2B, questions at SS, BIG questions at 3B, options at C, settled at LF, questions at CF, questions at RF, and some questions at DH. Yikes. The lineup is frankly much scarier than the pitching staff right now. We have more established guys in the rotation and in the 'pen than we do in the lineup right now, with internal options that have promise for every questionable area/hole. They're not perfect and there's real risk in not adding outside talent...but I see more holes in the lineup.

I think by "covered" Ted is suggesting that for the first time in a long while we don't have the same kinds of desperate needs to sign a starter. There's a legitimate possibility that the twins could cover their starting pitching through internal assets, which is something that would have been ridiculous to state as recently as a year ago. I'm sure the Twins will explore adding another starter, and almost certainly one that would fit closer to the top than the bottom. But part of the point here is we don't have a team that absolutely needs to sign a back of the rotation guy just to be able to fill out the staff. That's a good thing and a real improvement. I'm not in the "we need an ace or it's all a bust!" mode that some Twins fans seem to be in. I'd be happy to add a guy who falls into the category of "better than Kyle Gibson" if we can't sign one of the upper-upper-echelon guys; there has to be a realization that there are very few of those and betting the house on landing one isn't much of a strategy.

Rosario seems to have gone back more to the OF we were hoping he'd be in 2015 and rebounded nicely from an awful defensive year in 2017. If he can continue to be the kind of hitter he's been the last two season and the defender he's been in every year other than 2017, he's a very nice corner OF and someone to build with. Kepler had a disappointing season, there's no way around it. He simply did not take a significant step forward on offense, which leaves him in a bad spot. He's an excellent defender in the corners and an acceptable one in center, but without more offense he's profiling as a nice 4th OF, not a starter. What to do about RF is a little bit of a problem for the Twins. Kirilloff looks like the real deal, but is he 1 year away or 2? And while he's destroyed A-ball, the jump to AA can be a tough one. Betting on him to be the RF of the future in a year is a definite gamble. So do you keep rolling with Kepler as a starter or do you go looking for FA in what should be one of the easier positions fill to protect yourself from having to rush Kirilloff or as insurance in case he actually isn't the sure thing? Lord knows, i don't want to run with Robbie Grossman as a starting RF! Is lamonte wade ready to contribute next year? He didn't hit enough at AAA this year to give you a lot of confidence there. Figuring out RF is something the twins need to do, and I think it's one of the harder decisions. I generally agree with Nick's priorities, but #6 is RF to me.

Not much disagreement on who the top relievers were for the twins minor league system this year! Think Vasquez will be able to still utilize the fastball in MLB at that velocity because of the angle he can get at 6'6"? If he's got a wipeout slider and an effective enough fastball, he should be fine.

The walks will kill you. Tough night for Kohl Stewart, who really needs to be able to pound the zone to have success. Bad timing for May to give up the dinger, but that's a tough spot to come into.

Haven't thought about/looked at Travis Blankenhorn much this season; would the consensus be this was a bit of a step back for him? Nice to see him have a good night, but overall he looks to have struggled at the plate. or is this the FSL effect that gets most guys not named Kirilloff? A little easy to lose track of Blackenhorn in Ft. Myers this year with Lewis, Kirilloff, and Graterol moving up there mid season (and having success), and Rortvedt having a nice season.

Kirilloff had a wonderful season. It was really great for his future to see him not miss a beat upon promotion to high-A, and his hit tool is developing really, really well. His approach looks really good, the power is showing up, and I think he's ready for the next step. Coming off the major injury, I was fine with not trying to jump him another level at the end of the season. I don't think a few dozen ABs at AA changes much for him and letting him finish strong at Ft. Myers (where the franchise has good facilities because of the spring training complex and all) made sense. I think he'll start at AA next year, and that makes sense to me. I probably give him a pass on the AFL or winter ball, considering this was his first year coming off the injury. Let him rest and use the winter to continue to get stronger and be ready for next season. I'd probably give him an invite to big league spring training to see how he reacts (unless you have to add him to the 40 man for that?) and let him be around the coaches and players. I think he's on a fast track and if he keeps hitting like this, we may see him sooner rather than later. He might be special. Hope he attacks AA just like he did everything this year. I love Kepler, and root hard for him, but Kirilloff could force Kepler into a bench role if he can't get his BA up and hit better. That said...if Buxton gets it together, having Kepler as a 4th OF who gets quite a bit of playing time might be a really nice asset. I'm not giving up on Max, but Kirilloff seems likely to push someone hard for a corner OF slot. I'd love to have a guy on the big club that hits for that high average, and Kirilloff might be the best pure hitter we've had since Mauer's heyday. The ceiling is there.

Every player you're mentioning here is a fringe roster guy. Belisle is the only one where it's really a "this is a bad idea" and there's a real possibility that Molitor may have driven that one. Tyler Kinley? Flyer on a Rule 5 guy. Hardly a make or break move. David Hale? Again, they took a flyer on him and he was here for a cup of coffee. Gimenez? In a lost season what's the difference between Bobby Wilson & Chris Gimenez? The only reason either is here is because of Castro's knee injury. I assume you mean Johnny Field, and they took a flyer on a guy after selling at deadline. looks like he sucks, but he'd done a few things for TB this year and they took a shot. Gregorio Petit? a fringe player to fill in for injury/suspensions...and actually didn't do too bad! He got a sept callup. he'll finish the year with maybe 50 ABs. every team brings in guys like this as a veteran utility guy and you hope they can hold it down for a few weeks Taylor Motter? again, they took a flyer on a guy. He showed a little pop in seattle, showed nothing here and got cut. we're indicting the FO over 20 ABs? They've been moving a lot of guys in and out of the bottom edge of the 25 man looking for diamonds in the rough. I'm ok with that. Some of them are going to work (Jake Cave) others will look promising (Tyler Austin) more of them will be busts. But I'm not going to freak out over 6 guys who are going to get maybe 100 AB and 5 appearances between them. Belisle was and is a mistake. Hopefully they've learned from it and know that bringing back a guy just because he used to be here and the manager likes him isn't good enough. i'm still fine with bringing back mauer next year as long as the price tag is reasonable.

Look at ownership? There's zero indication that the Pohlads are interested in selling the team, and there's absolutely no way they could be forced to sell. Acting if there's a way to "change" ownership is a waste of time. The front office is still pretty new. This ain't football where the system is set up to enable 1 year turnarounds. The moves they've made have all made sense when they've made them (even the Buxton decision is defensible, just brings different sets of problems), and the FO can't control player performance or injuries. Right now they seem to be drafting well and making reasonable FA choices. Panicking and going for FO reset is how franchises really flail and fail. Logan Morrison is having his worst season as a pro. Brian Dozier fell off the table this year. Sano & Buxton have both been injured for long stretches (and ineffective for others). Castro got hurt. Santana got hurt. Polanco got suspended. These are not things that FO can really control...

If he asks for $12-15M he will be told no. (and laughed at behind closed doors, probably) There will be precisely zero market for him at anything near that number. To other teams, he's probably only looking at offers in the $5-7M range. To the Twins he would be worth slightly more in that he has greater value to them as the lifelong Twin, the hometown kid, etc. Frankly, I'd be rather surprised if he got an offer higher than 1 year at $6M from another team.

If I had to bet, I'd go with a 1-2 deal. But Mauer is fairly sphinx-like: you never really know what he's thinking because he doesn't tell anyone. (which is why the dan barreiro's of the twins media use him as a punching bag so often) I don't think he goes anywhere else, even to chase a ring. He can still play and he's been pretty healthy the last two years, so i think he'll want to play. I think the FO isn't going to shove him out the door if he wants to play, unless his contract demands are ridiculous. they'd get crushed if Joe Mauer has a press conference where he says, "I wanted to keep playing, but they wouldn't even offer me a contract."

I don't mind them playing around with the "opener" concept. It's an opportunity in a lost season to try out some new concepts, try some people in some different roles and see how they react. It may not be a keeper, but I actually like the idea of pushing relievers & starters to do things outside of the regimented and hyper-defined roles they have been formed into over the last 30 years. Glad to see Kohl Stewart have a good outing. Not sure what his future is yet, but if he can throw strikes and finish off ABs with some efficiency he could be a good innings-eater with the weak contact he induces.

I'm excited about Rortvedt too. He took a very important step forward as a hitter this year. It shouldn't have been a surprise for him to have improved as a hitter when repeating a level for the first half of the season, but he kept it up after moving up to Ft. Myers, where he was young for the level and it's generally known as a pitcher's league (Alex Kirilloff not withstanding). I suspect he'll start the year in high A again next year and if he continues to hit like he did this season he'll move to AA around midseason. But the improved hit tool makes him a real live prospect now.

well, for those asking what more Gonsalves needed to do to make it out of AAA, we're seeing it here: he's got to cut down on the walks. Hopefully he's learning from this, but right now he looks like a guy who has a ways to go before he's ready to compete for a roster spot. I'm fine with continuing to run him out there this year, see how he responds to the adversity, see if he can start to make some adjustments...but this is pretty much what I expected to happen considering how many walks he was still giving up in AAA. I hope Kepler finishes strong this year, but this season feels like a disappointment to me. The defense continues to be good, but he hasn't taken the step forward on his hitting that I think everyone was hoping to see. That low BA is really holding him back.

What would he really have gained by jumping up another level to get into AA for a month at the end of the season? It's more likely to create misleading results than inform you of anything about him as a player and isn't going to advance his skill set in any significant way. he's still going to start next year at AA; 30 ABs isn't going to change that. One of the great things about Ft. Myers for developing prospects for the Twins is they have more advanced facilities there (because it's also the spring training home) than any other minor league affiliate. (consider the fact that he's coming off a major injury) It's an excellent place for a guy like Kirilloff to develop and rushing him out of there for 30 meaningless ABs doesn't seem like a smart, considered plan to me. He's a top prospect, he's going to being a huge riser in the offseason rankings, but right now the twins seem to have a plan for him and it's been working.

How are we feeling about Rortvedt's progression as a catcher? He's showing solid progress as a hitter this year, I think. If his defense and gamecalling is showing similar progress, he'll be moving up the prospect lists in the offseason.

Agreed. Royce is going to be fine. Let him finish out the season, hopefully he can bust out of the slump before the end, but it's a good lesson for him. Kirilloff is remarkable as a hitter. FSL hasn't fazed him at all, and that's wonderful to see. I'm guessing Lewis repeats the level to start next season, Kirilloff makes the jump to AA. Just a guess.

It's one of the reasons not to have pushed them up to AA this season. Letting them get through the year of full-season ball like this isn't a bad thing. It's not like either is old for the level. Kirilloff has cooled off some, so it will be interesting to see how he controls the strike zone going forward now that he's not hitting everything in the world. I suspect hell be just fine. Think either are AFL candidates?

He's arbitration eligible, but there's no reason not to bring him back. He's a solid back of the rotation guy who gives up a few too many hits and walks to be great. If he dropped 1 walk per 9 and 1 hit per 9 while keeping the K/9 where they're at this year (nearly a career high) he'd be a very nice pitcher. As it is, he's useful but not someone you give a multiyear deal to. But having a guy like him while you develop your younger guys with more upside is a good idea. I'm baffled by the idea he wouldn't be considered for the rotation next year.

Pineda's "start" is interesting. It'd be nice if he makes it back to pitch a little in MLB this season, but making sure he's ready for 2019 is the priority. Hmm. How do people feel about a rotation of Berrios, Gibson, Pineda, Romero and one of Gonsalves/Thorpe/Meija? Not enough upside? too great a risk for regression/injury/inconsistency/growing pains? because right now, that could be the group we're looking at. Pineda's recovery will be worth tracking. When healthy, he should be a quality pitcher...

I'd shut down Reed, there's just no way he's right. Duffy has earned another run, as a reliever. Let's see if Hildenberger can work through it. Maybe he can adjust to the adjustments. Have we given up on May as a starter? If so, he should be a nice piece for next season. health is his problem, not ability. I do ascribe to the idea that relievers are fungible and the least consistent guys out there. there's very few that are worth paying big money on multi-year deals. So let's see what we can get out of the young guys. Moya & Rogers look good from the left side. Reed was fine until he got hurt, and should be the good vet for next year. May looks like he's healthy (so far) and give you a quality righty as well. Hildenberger and Duffy might be the other 2 pieces. That's not a bad 'pen for next year, just not one that's got a lot of big names. the question is going to be depth when guys inevitably get nicked up or struggle for a stretch. but I see no need to keep a belisle around or muck about with a washed up vet.

I doubt anyone is going to give up much for Forsythe, and he's a functional MLB 2B, so I'm fine with letting hold down the fort until the end of the year. Let him get some ABs and see if he's a guy they think can return to his TB form, or he's really a guy who's started on his decline phase and won't be a significant factor going forward. If the Twins evaluators run through the offseason and think he's the best option to hold things over for next season, I'd be ok with bringing him back on a 1 year deal. he could be a reasonable bridge to Gordon, if the team thinks Gordon isn't going to be ready next season. (who knows, maybe what we'll need is a bridge to Royce Lewis at SS, with Polanco moving over to 2B) I would not extend him now, no way. There's little chance the team could do a deal that would make sense for the club right now anyways; does anyone think Forsythe would accept a 1 year extension at $2M? I don't. I'm fairly certain his advisers would tell him "keep hitting, you're going to be a free agent, we can sell you better now that the dodger nightmare is over". he still might not get more than $2M or so, but someone might offer him a 2 year deal, someone might go higher (if he hits like he did in 2016, $5M would be a steal). Let it play out.