Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jmlease1

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,457

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    30

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    The MLB portion is always a little odd because you have to keep that guy on your 25-man MLB roster or offer him back to the team you yanked him from and roster spots there are at a premium. I'm sure several of the guys we exposed to the MLB Rule V draft would have been snapped up if the drafting team could have assigned them to AAA. I would have been intrigued by Tyler Jay if I were running a club that was tanking/terrible because the investment is minimal and the upside is still there if he's healthy. But it's a lottery ticket move that you can really only do if you have roster spots to burn (say if you don't want to start the clock on a better prospect of your own while you know the team is going to be awful). And the Minor league portion really is about much more fringe-y guys.
  2. jmlease1
    I thought someone might take a flyer on Tyler Jay, which wouldn't have been the worst result in the world, other than confirming he was a failed draft pick. but it's good that with as deep a system as we have that no one got picked up, shows that the FO is making some pretty sharp evaluations on guys. Wonder if getting passed over under rule 5 will light a fire under any of these guys?
  3. jmlease1
    I think this is the problem with both Cave & Austin. Their approach at the plate is a little suspect: what worked for them last season maybe not be viable consistently. It's easier to give Cave more rope, because he has positional flexibility: you can drop him out into any of the spots in the OF and feel fine about him defensively. Austin looks serviceable at 1B, but otherwise he's DHing it. Oh, btw, Cave's BABIP against RHP is .382. Small Sample Size? Good utilization of his speed? Ability to hit 'em where they ain't? I dunno, but there's a reason we talk about the sophomore slump and I fear it in his case. I still like Cave as a 4th OF option; he's helpful in a lot of ways to balance the lineup, give guys a rest, play solid D, etc. But Nelson Cruz hasn't had an OBP under .333 in 6 years. Neither Cave nor Austin has cleared .320 in their careers, and could very easily regress. Even with a pessimistic further age regression, Cruz is likely to have an OBP around .330 and SLG around .485 (which would be the 2nd worst year in his career since becoming a full-time player).
  4. jmlease1
    Because Cruz gets on base? Because there's pretty good odds Tyler Austin just isn't that good? Because Cruz doesn't have bad platoon splits that suggest he needs to be protected against tough righties? I'd rather spend the roster spot on Cruz than Austin, who I'm just not that impressed with. He's a lesser version of Cron in my opinion and I'd much rather have Cruz getting those ABs at DH. I'm not that worried about Sano "needing" to move to 1B in the next 1-2 years: his defense at 3B is good enough and if he's not hitting it's not going to get better at 1B or DH.
  5. jmlease1
    I'd be interested in all of them, especially Cruz who gets on base in addition to hitting the ball a mile. I certainly wouldn't pass up Cruz in order to hold a roster spot for Tyler Austin, who I think ain't gonna be anything other than a guy. I don't see Ramos happening, but considering the concerns over whether Garver can continue to catch with the concussion issues and Castro coming off a significant knee injury it's worth exploring. (I hate hate hate the fact that teams are running with 13 pitchers. Especially considering at least one of those guys isn't going to get used more than once a week and occasionally will go 2 weeks without an appearance and possibly 3 without a meaningful one. I'd rather see a rule limiting the number of pitchers on a roster to 12 than banning the shift.)
  6. jmlease1
    I get both the strategy and the frustration. With the division weak and the talent that the twins have, I absolutely understand a desire to be bold and make a play for some of the FA that are/were out there that would fill some of our roster holes very nicely and position us better to compete. But some of that perception of talent is dependent on things like: Sano being healthy and being 2017 and not 2018, or Buxton finding a way to hit enough and stay healthy enough to stick in the lineup, or 2nd half Polanco being the "real" Polanco, or Kepler finally having a breakout season. Which is why I can understand the "wait & see" approach, because if 1/2 those guys fall flat again, we ain't nearly as good as we think we are. If Lewis and Kirilloff had played AA last season and we felt more comfortable they were really breaking down the doors... If Romero was a guy you felt confident could start getting consistently out of the 5th inning... man, I just don't know. I'm worried we have too many hackers who don't get on base. I'm worried we don't have another power arm in the bullpen we can count on. Would I feel better if the Twins made a big push on Machado, even if they came up short? I dunno. I mean, they made a big push on Darvish last season, missed on him, and it might have been the luckiest thing that happened last season. (that 6th year is looking dreadful to have tacked on now).
  7. jmlease1
    I hope he's ok. If he can catch, he's a nice player. If he can't...he hits like Kepler. Great behind the plate, not so great in other positions. Would be a shame if concussions drive him out from behind the plate (and possibly out of the league). I'd like to see him as the primary catcher the next 2-3 season.
  8. jmlease1
    It's a fair critique of Kepler, and the fear we all should have on him: this may be exactly the hitter he is. but there's also been enough bursts to tease people. He's still only 25 (same age as Cave). Look at his splits from 2018: crushed it in March/April. Below average in May. Awful in June. Killed it in July. Average in Aug. Poor in September. He's all over the place as a hitter, but he's got all these peripherals that suggest he's capable of being good as well as a track record in the high minors that makes you think he can hit. And the D is stellar (better than anyone else on the roster save Buxton). This could be a make or break season for him. It's also why the people suggesting moving Kepler to 1B need to stop. His hitting his the problem. It's fine in CF. It's questionable in RF. Even if he's as good a defender at 1B as Mauer became, it's just not enough at 1B. Kepler has interesting trade value because he played enough CF to be attractive to other teams. His D there isn't one of the high elite but it's darn good. He can play other OF positions and not be too much of a drag on your offense. But since we don't know if Buxton is going to make it he's also got value to the Twins who know they can slot him in there and not have to worry about Cave being a fluke. certainty is really helpful in baseball. We know Kepler's floor, I think. The question is does he have much more of a ceiling?
  9. jmlease1
    meh. not loving Schoop. doesn't get on base, strikes out a lot. fills the hole (and definitely means Polanco is staying at SS), but he wasn't a guy I was hoping for. I think he'll be better than last year, but not nearly as good as 2017 Schoop. I'd project him to be a lot like 2016 Schoop and that does not get me singing the Schoop Schoop song.
  10. jmlease1
    I'm baffled by the over-love for Cave. He's a useful piece and we got him for a lottery ticket pitcher, but he profiles like a 4th OF. Yes, he hit well this season, but dude had a .363 BABIP. Do we really think he's going to be hitting balls hard enough consistently enough to sustain that? he's got a grand total of 300 PAs in the majors; are we sure he is who we think/hope he is? It's very possible Kepler never hits enough to be a great corner OF. Maybe his best position is CF, or maybe he's a 4th OF who is ok at the plate, great defensively, and can play all three spots. But it's hard to see Cave as being the answer with any confidence. (maybe Kiriloff is in another year)
  11. jmlease1
    That's all fine and good in a vacuum, but the FO has to deal in reality. Most proven, starting quality players aren't going to sign somewhere if they don't see a job opening. So what are we talking about here? A manager problem who kept going to the well with a vet like Morrison who sucked? That manager got fired. You're not going to have a roster with 25 starters on it. And you're going to have a problem if every guy on the roster thinks they should be starting and isn't willing to fill a role. You have to have guys on your roster that fill roles, not just for pitching but for the lineup, especially when you only get 12-13 spots for the guys in the field. Adrianza fills a role: positional flexibility with at least adequate defense and hitting that's respectable for middle infield. You bring up Jake Cave and suggest he competed for Kepler's playing time, but the reality is, with Buxton hurt/ineffective there was an opening for a guy to get some OF playing time. He didn't take away any time from Kepler, who had a career high in games played and plate appearances. Cave's a useful player, but he also had a BABIP of .363 which probably isn't sustainable. He's still a useful player because he can't be an effective CF for you if Buxton repeats last year and be a nice defensive replacement in the corners. but he's not pushing Kepler out of RF. The problem the Twins have right now in the OF is they don't know if Kepler can hit enough to be an every day RF or Buxton can hit enough to be an every day CF.
  12. jmlease1
    bWAR thinks Adrianza was better than Neil Walker last season, and at 4 years younger I think it's a decent bet Adrianza will be better this year too. The year before Neil Walker was getting paid $17M (and was probably not better than Adrianza; the difference in their bWAR is mostly attributed to playing time, as Walker got double the PAs). Walker looks like an ok starter who has gone into the decline phase of his career and will be out of the league within the next two years if he doesn't have a significant bounceback because no one wants to pay $4-5M to an aging backup whose D is slipping and hit tool is vanishing. Brock Holt was better than Adrianza last year, worse the year before. Holt has a better track record overall, Adrianza is younger and cheaper. Odds are pretty good that they'll be pretty similar players this year. As a backup Adrianza is a useful player, especially at this age and at this cost.
  13. jmlease1
    he's got good positional flexibility and does fine with limited playing time. A useful player with a good floor and a marginal ceiling. I look at a player like Adrianza like this: if you're feeling really good about your regular lineup, you like him and feel fine about him as a bench guy who can stop up the cracks. The worse you feel about your every day lineup, the less you like him. The last two years he's been an effective sub for us as he's gotten more playing time, but that's almost certainly the limit for him. That said, I still think he's a perfectly fine guy to fill out the back end of the 25-man roster.
  14. jmlease1
    Schoop's BABIP in full MLB seasons (at least 135 games): .249, .305, .330, .261 The .330 feels like the flukiest of these. (admittedly, he put up a .329 once as well, but it was also the season he only played 86 games...) I just don't think he's a guy who can sustain a high BABIP and it leaves him vulnerable. JMO. Kinda feel like a reunion with Dozier is a better idea than Schoop.
  15. jmlease1
    I'm not a fan of Schoop. His 2017 season is starting to look like a fluke year to me; just not seeing him put up another BABIP of .330, which was driving some of that. I think he'll bounce back and be a decent power bat at 2B, but his ceiling looks like a 2-2.5 WAR player. I suspect his true value is the 2015-2016 version, not 2017. The low OBP is not what this team needs right now, that's for sure.
  16. jmlease1
    Lol, I'm sure Seth meant "Tendered" on Cron. I agree with all of these. I know there's some who aren't in favorite of Odorizzi, but he was solid enough as a back end guy and there's real value in a guy who you can pencil in for 30 starts and feel competitive with him. He had a nice bounceback season and if he can cut down the walks back to 2015-2016 levels, he'll be a very solid 4th guy.
  17. jmlease1
    Torii Hunter: 2013 defensive bWAR: -1.5 2014 defensive bWAR: -2.3 2015 defensive bWAR: -1.4 Fangraphs might have liked him a bit better, but he was as bad in 2013 as he was in 2015 by at least one measure. Isn't it more like Torii just had an extra bad year his second year in Detroit and reverted back towards the mean than Target Field was so much easier for him to play RF? It's possible you're right and just being in Target Field can cover some of the shortcomings of a RF with bad range and declining glove skills, but Kepler is just flat-out great and it doesn't matter what park it is. he makes all the plays out there and makes plays he shouldn't be able to do. a big part of his value is in the OF defense he brings to the table. you may not think that matters, but I'm guessing the pitching staff disagrees...
  18. jmlease1
    Torii was not a "league average" defender out there in 2015, not even close. he was almost exactly as awful as he was in 2013 with the Tigers, he just wasn't as horrendously abysmal as he was in 2014 with the Tigers. Torii was 2017 Eddie Rosario in Target Field: awful. target Field did not make Torii a league average player again, he was in fact a sub-replacement level player by bWAR. I don't think Target Field is some bandbox with high walls to keep the HRs in play, either. And yes, with Buxton in CF the RF doesn't have to cover as much territory, but with a fielder of Kepler's capacity whomever is playing CF can shade over to LF and help Rosario out without losing anything.
  19. jmlease1
    Yeah, just not loving the idea of putting Kepler at 1B, I mean I guess it might be better than having him DH as a way to get more LH hitters in the lineup because his size and athleticism should translate well there, but man...we're doing it for Jake Cave? I guess I wouldn't care about it for 10-12 games, but I'm hoping Kepler improves offensively and coupled with his elite D can be a mainstay in the OF. but he needs to hit, because if his hitting doesn't improve it's hard to justify his bat at any other position. People haven't been happy with Mauer's production at 1B, and Joe was elite defensively. We don't know if Max could match that D (maybe with enough play time?) and he's hit worse than Mauer the last three years and it's not really close. I do like the idea of letting Astudillo get 500 ABs, though. This lineup could use another high BA guy and it'd be fun as hell to see if he can be one of those guys who can get away with hacking at everything because he just hits it. Super utility guy who can hit over .300? sign me up.
  20. jmlease1
    I'd be fine with adding carlos santana; I think he's likely to have a bit of a bounce back year (career low BABIP last season almost certainly depressed that BA and SLG) and is still a 2-3 WAR player whose switch hitting and ability to hit LHP and get on base would be a solid fit with Cron. What confuses the heck out of me are the people in this thread advocating to move Max Kepler to 1B. Kepler's greatest value to the team last year was defensive and if you dump him in at 1B you diminish his greatest strengths right now (elite D in RF, above average D in CF, ability to PLAY CF effectively) while emphasizing his biggest weaknesses (hitting, hitting, hitting...). He's a terrific defensive player in the OF, why on earth would you move him to the least impactful defensive position on the field?
  21. jmlease1
    This is something of a marginal move, but I was never all that sold on Tyler Austin anyways. I'll have to go look at the FAs but I do think it would be good for this squad to get a high OBP LH hitter to help out. A lot of this probably comes down to Austin v. Cron, and if you had to bet on who's likely to be a better player next year...how do you not take Cron? He's got 2 years of being a 2 WAR player and neither had any unsustainable fluke elements like an out of character BABIP. There's nothing wonky in his splits (like beating the crap out of september callup pitching to pad the numbers) to make you freak out. He's probably a 1.5-2.4 bWAR guy for the next 2-3 years and I'd be nervous on betting Austin can come close to matching that. yes, he's going to cost more than Austin but he's also probably worth 1 more WAR than Austin. I'll take that marginal improvement for $4.5M, especially considering 1 WAR is worth about $8-9M. I'm not a big fan of Austin. Not sure he'll ever get the OBP to where it needs to be to be an effective Three True Outcomes guy. It was a fine acquisition to dump Lance Lynn, and he's a decent depth guy, but I'd much rather have Cron at this point.
  22. jmlease1
    It's going to be very interesting to see if Rogers improvement against RHB is real or one of those relief pitcher variable years. He was massively better against RHBs in 2018 vs 2017...but not that different from 2016. His ability to keep the ball in the park last year was the real key, i think, but it's hard to know how much of that was luck or skill with a relatively small data set. He's a useful pitcher even if he regresses some against RHBs again, but it's encouraging that there's an approach change that has coincided with his increased success. That does help me believe this may be more repeatable and an indicator of future success. no question, Twins will be looking to him as an important late-inning option.
  23. jmlease1
    Looks like a solid group. I'm not worried about their youth/lack of lengthy MLB coaching experience. It's not like this staff is filled up with people who have never coached before. There's some good diversity of experience and background that looks like a positive. Hopefully, they'll be able to work together effectively (probably the most underrated aspect of a coaching staff).
  24. jmlease1
    Sending Jax to the AFL to get some work in was a good call by management. he's an interesting prospect, and he's going to be one of the pitching prospects I'll be most curious about in the upcoming season. If he puts together a strong season, he could advance quickly. Fun story, he's got some talent, looking forward to seeing how it goes for him.
  25. jmlease1
    On a scale of 1-10, what do you think Joe Mauer's embarrassment level would have been if they'd done a farewell tour, like Mariano Rivera? 10? 14? 22? I'm also not betting against the idea that he's writing thank you notes to everybody he played with/against who paid tribute to him on social media.
×
×
  • Create New...