jmlease1

Well, he only got 10 outings there last season...and I'm trying to recall one that he got in the second half of the season and I'm struggling with it. Kepler got more run out there in CF than Eddie and I suspect Eddie's going to be an emergency option only going forward. (especially if Granite cracks the 25-man)

I'd be interested to see how much things like sprint speed fluctuate from year to year, but it's something that should be a little concerning. Unless Rosario starts taking better routes to the ball and tracking things better, a loss of high-end speed will end up hurting him. Here's a question: would he be better off in RF? He's got the arm to play out there effectively and as I recall the alignment at Target Field makes LF a bigger space to cover than RF. Much as I like Kepler in RF, we may have to consider flip-flopping those two if Rosario can't get his giddyup back in gear. If Rosario can make an incremental improvement on last year's offense while getting back some of his defensive value, he's going to be a real asset. If he slides back further on D or starts swinging at anything thrown in the vicinity of 1st Ave again, he's not going to have a lengthy career.

I think there's more than a small possibility that Hughes starts the season on the DL, and then needs rehab time in the minors to get himself into pitching shape. I love Chargois, but he's got to prove that he's healthy and I'm not betting on him at the start of the season either. I'm not even a little worried about Kinley; we're at a point where a Rule V guy has to show they can contribute or we won't hold a roster spot for them and if he goes I'm not shedding any tears. the heat loss in missing on a Rule V pick is pretty low. Rodney's contract is one where if he's not pitching well we can dump him and roll with a different guy from Rochester and I think that's healthy. And as much as i hate it, there's a better than even chance we come north with an 8-man 'pen. Rodney Reed Duke Hildenburger Rogers Pressly (who has earned the skepticism) Duffey Busenitz That looks like the first cut. May is going to be tossed in the starter pool (good!). Enns, Kinley, Curtiss, and Moya are fighting for spots. Moya has options, and has never pitched at AAA; he starts there unless Duke or Rogers falters/gets hurt and we need another lefty. Duffey could get dealt (he's exactly the sort of pitcher who gets thrown into a deal so that a team isn't getting all prospects for a legit MLB player/star) but otherwise he's potentially the swingman in the bullpen and needs to fight off Enns or Kinley. Curtiss is going to push Pressly. Those are my guesses right now. Regardless, there's a lot more depth than there was and Reed sure looks like the impact bullpen arm people were complaining the twins weren't gonna sign.

Mauer's seems like a fine baserunner, but he doesn't steal bases and grounds into plenty of DPs, so I'm not surprised to see him with a bottom 5 sort of number...but looking at some of the other 1Bs around the league Fan Graphs basically just thinks he stinks at it. That's a surprise; I figured his issues would be around the no SBs and the GIDPs, but he's not that different from a number of other guys at his position in that regard. Not a surprise to see Buxton rank so well; he's electric out there and it's a delight to watch. I almost don't want him slugging HRs because it's so fun to see him on the bases. (swear to god, you could see fear in the eyes of LFs last year when he'd flip a single even a little bit towards the line knowing that he was fast enough to turn a routine single into a double if they didn't hustle after the ball)

I think it's fair for Gordon's second-half struggles to downgrade him some on the prospect lists, and for it not just to be a function of higher-upside prospects joining the organization/being recognized. He had an ok year; it started really well offensively and ended pretty badly. It's not an unusual occurrence for a prospect to hit a stumbling block when they start getting into the high minors, but while Gordon is young for his level (and has been at every stop) it's still a reasonable cause for concern. He also didn't do a lot to prove that he really can stick at SS at the major-league level, either. He didn't disqualify himself either, but taken in aggregate, last season is more of a "he justified the promotion" sort of season rather than a "he's ready to keep advancing" one. I'd like for him to repeat at AA and see how it goes. He's got some things to work on and repeating a level at his age is fine. he's still a prospect, but right now he's not showing enough to say "we can't deal him".

Many, many fond memories of Morneau. terrific player. Prototypical 1B slugger who went from being a little scary defensively at 1B to someone you had confidence in. It's a shame the concussions wiped out some peak years when he was really rolling and he didn't get to play in the postseason in 2009 or 2010. Maybe he would have been a difference-maker. One that I'll never forget: 2006 ALDS Game 2 at the old Metrodome. Friend from school stops me in the hall and says, "hey, I got tickets, wanna go?" And we're off. Cheap seats out in the outfield, and it's great. Bottom 6, Twins are down 2-0 when Cuddyer rips a HR and the whole place goes nuts. Just barely over the din I scream to my buddy, "just watch, Morneau's going back-to-back" (I was caught up in the moment, not like I really believed it or anything just wanted it so bad!). And then Justin Morneau launches one into the seats to tie the game and it's bedlam. It's the loudest I've ever heard anything. It was painful. It was great. What a homer. congrats on retirement, Justin. Glad the club is keeping you in the fold.

I'm having trouble spotting Dozier shifting to 3B at that point, but I suppose anything is possible? Hard to know if he really has the arm for the spot, but otherwise he could probably handle it defensively. If Royce Lewis is already beating down the door at SS I have a hunch that Nick Gordon gets dealt to someone who wants his bat in their lineup. The rest seems to be a good fit.

I don't think there's any question that Rosario's defense has declined from his rookie season (I'll debate the idea that Buxton is the only quality defender out there, however; Kepler is still a good defender and Granite certainly has potential). But if he can keep up the increased discipline he showed last season, he's a useful player. He doesn't need to be a walk-taking machine, just show an understanding of the zone so he doesn't get himself out. It's also possible that he can improve his defense back up to something closer to average out there if he's established a more consistent approach at the plate. he's got the arm to be a nice corner OF and enough range to get to the balls he needs to, but he makes poor decisions out there. well, he made poor decisions at the plate two years ago and that improved. He's not super young any longer, but maybe he's matured? I'm rooting for him, that's for sure.

I'm staggered that anyone would attack Nick Nelson for not reporting this assault accusation to legal authorities. That's not his responsibility and absent the consent of the accuser, he has nothing substantive to add to the conversation. The fact that this would come up is further evidence how much further we have to go in dealing with sexual harassment, sexual assault, and related issues in our society. At my job we have mandatory training that we are required to renew every year. It's comprehensive and actually quite informative for people who take it seriously. (The interactive web-based system used does a respectable job in making people people engage on the topic as well) One of the topics covered is the concept of mandatory reporting, so that people know their roles. Some people where I work are "mandatory reporters" and if someone tells them about an assault or harassment, they are required as part of their job to inform the appropriate authority. Most people are not. Most people, especially at a private business, are not going to be considered a mandatory reporter and if someone is then they absolutely would know that status. Other people are allowed to support a victim in whatever way the victim asks, including maintaining confidence. We do this because there are jobs (school teachers, in particular) who are in positions of public trust and authority who we have decided as a society that they can't keep things quiet. (not coincidentally, this can also help victims come forward: by telling a mandatory reporter they can trigger the start of something official starting with someone they can speak with more comfortably rather than straight to the police) A columnist/writer for a website isn't going to be a mandatory reporter. This is a serious accusation. It's been followed up by some preliminary investigation and commentary from people who have inside information that lends additional credibility to the accusation. The victim has gone on the record in public. The Twins had better take this extremely seriously. Regardless of what happens in this specific case, I'd suggest that the organization should rethink how it handles sexual harassment training and how they handle that training both in how it relates to players and staff. They will need to ensure that they are handling that training in a comprehensive fashion that addresses cultural and language barriers as they arise and not assume a basic "one size fits all" approach will be effective.

I'm ok with lowering our aim if we can't land Darvish (which admittedly will be tough, the competition is significant)...just not too far. I'm not all that excited about spending on depth guys for the rotation. If we can't improve the top end of our staff through free agency/trade, I'd rather stay internal next year and give some of our guys in the minors a shot rather than get a veteran back-end guy. Honestly...we have a few of those. (The Tease, aka Kyle Gibson, Mejia, Hughes...that's enough options for the back-end right there along with possibly May, Gonsalves, Jorge, and/or Romero competing for a slot. Heck, we could still bring back Santiago.) I'm not interested in sell mode. We've got 2 young stars already in the every day lineup (Buxton & Sano) and other young pieces around them (Kepler & Rosario) that could take another step forward. We have veterans with value around them as well (Dozier, Mauer, Castro) which makes for a potent offense and quality defense. Selling off Ervin or Dozier would have to bring a bonanza with players ready to step in almost immediately, and I don't see anyone likely to make that offer. Other teams have tried to lowball us on Dozier before, and with him closer to free agency his perceived value will drop even further. We're much better off keeping him. Now, making a deal that pushes Robbie Grossman aside? I can live with that. he was a nice find offensively off the scrap heap, but let's not pretend he's a quality starter. I'm not holding a spot worrying about getting Grossman some playing time and if we can get a guy like Cruz, who would be a big offensive boost (even if he probably can't play OF unless it's interleague), I'd explore the heck out of it. McCutchen would be even better, letting us mix & match in the OF but the haul required to get him out of Pittsburgh might be too high; they'll overvalue him based on past performance and his popularity with the fan base, something I can understand. If we can get him for a couple of mid-level prospects, though? I'd go for it in a heartbeat and platoon him at RF & DH for 140-150 games and hope the extra rest keeps his bat fresh.

Considering Mauer already has a higher bWAR (53.4 v 46.2) & fWAR (48.1 v 44.3) than Dale Murphy in 4 less seasons, I'm not sure it's a great comp. If Mauer adds another 5-6 WAR in the next 2-3 seasons that's a pretty significant difference. Mattingly played the same number of seasons as Joe (to this point), but Mauer again was better: (53.4 v 42.2 bWAR; 48.1 v 40.7 fWAR). Beyond that Mauer is still likely to keep playing for another few years to add to his total. After last season do you really expect him to put up negatives? the narrative is different as well: After being the consensus best catcher in the game, Mauer was forced to change positions because of injury and turned himself into a fine defensive 1B while still continuing to get on base at an elite level through walks and line drives. with Murphy the narrative is more like: after being one of the best CF in the game, Murphy turned 31 and went into a rapid and steep decline that he never recovered from. Mattingly: after an amazing start to his career, Mattingly became an average to above average starter in the league before injuries wiped out the real decline phase of his career. remember, mauer was having another outstanding season at catcher in 2013, before the brain injury forced the position change a few years earlier than anyone would have liked. The hardware for them might be pretty similar, but the production really isn't. (and how much extra did Murphy get for playing on TBS and Mattingly for being a goddamn Yankee? That really mattered for awards back then; it's normed out somewhat now.) Mauer had more dominant seasons than Mattingly, about the same as Murphy. Murphy never recovered once he fell from the heights and wasn't a good player at all his last 4 seasons; Mauer is still a productive player. Mattingly wasn't even a player at this point. That said, both Murphy and Mattingly have gotten real consideration for the Hall; both spent 15 years on the ballot. Mauer is better than both and should make the Hall when his time comes.

I left off Scott Rolen. Big oversight on my part. He won't make it in this year (partly because Chipper was a better hitter and healthier) but he should. He was a great player.

2 years with an option for a 3rd with a reasonable buyout and some salary escalators tied to playing time would be fine in my book. I'd make the offer seth outlines. He's a nice, flexible bench piece that gives you good insurance against an INF injury. I'd rather not have him starting in one spot consistently, but as a super-utility guy he's a great fit and $4.5M is a price I'd pay.

My list: Vlad Guerrero Trevor Hoffman Larry "Chipper" Jones Jim Thome Mike Mussina Edgar Martinez Larry Walker Curt Schilling Johan Santana I still can't decide where to fall on the PED guys, so I left 'em all off for now. Bonds & Clemens were both of HoF caliber before they started juicing, but the whole thing is still a mess. Manny...gah. Insanely great hitter. Useless defender. Cheater. feels like we need more distance from it all to decide. Toughest omission: Andruw Jones. Still thinking about adding him to the list. He was amazing defensively in his prime, and was a good hitter for most of his career. But wow, did he fall apart right after turning 30. Fast and steep decline. I'd be ok if he made it, still deciding on that 10th slot if I need to use it. Couldn't vote for Omar, much as I loved to watch him play. Bad hitter, much closer to Davey Concepcion than Ozzie Smith in my mind. Larry Walker is underrated, in my mind. He wasn't just a Coors Field phenom, he was a great player who could do it all...except stay healthy. But when he played, he was fantastic. Hall of Famer in my book.

Agreed. Plus, we're not overspending on a guy to simply pitch the 9th inning. Kenley Jansen is a great, great reliever...but is he really worth paying $21M for? for less than 70 innings? Two years ago Zach Britton was the shutdown guy in the AL; last year he got a $5M raise (to $11M) and was less valuable than Rodney was. (at roughly 4x the price) Rodney has generally been pretty effective as a closer, a role that is generally overrated and overpaid by modern usage. So signing him at a pretty reasonable price to fill a role on this team that he should be able to perform while not blocking any of the power relief arms we have coming up in the minors or preventing what may be better options in the system already from serving in higher leverage situations seems like a decent move. It's certainly not one worth hating on.

I'm a little surprised at the hostility towards this move, honestly. I mean, I get that it's not a big splashy signing but it's hard to see how this objectively a bad signing either. Rodney is a quality, experienced reliever with loads of experience in the closer role. Singing him doesn't mess up our salary structure in the future, nor will it jeopardize our chances at a big-time signing later in free agency. He should be a useful piece for the bullpen next year. This doesn't look like a "Ryan 2.0" move to me; that would have been giving a shot to a former closer who had sucked for 3 years and was looking for one more shot. Rodney was very good last year once he got past that first month or so. (yes, those count but my point is: this doesn't look like a guy who is cooked) It's a small move, but a fine one in my opinion. I'm not a fan of handing out multi-year deals to FA relievers generally; we've seen so much variance in performance over the years to make that a questionable use of funds. And there's no question teams have overpaid for "closers", especially with the 9th inning only useage, so i'd rather do it more like this.

A solid signing. the money is fine, I like that's it's a 1 year deal considering how many power arms we have in the system in relief roles that could easily emerge. The experience will probably help some of the younger relievers adjust, and it looks like he should still be effective...and if it turns out he's cooked it won't be hard to move on. Good move to bolster the roster.

Santana's miss on the Cy was really the start of the "hey, maybe judging starting pitchers on wins isn't very good" movement breaking more mainstream. Maybe being part of a watershed moment helps? a third Cy certainly would have made his case much stronger for the more traditional crowd. I'd vote for Johan. the level of greatness is there, the peak was at the max for long enough for me to get over the relative brevity of his career.

Kohl Stewart didn't get picked? He was the one I thought a team would take a flyer on. Hate losing Burdi, guess the team is more comfortable floating a 40-man spot to a starter that likely won't pitch this season than a reliever? That's not unreasonable, I guess. It's Rule V, it's sort of like buying a lottery ticket. A smart team with a high pick might get lucky but the odds aren't great.

God, are we STILL fighting the "did the twins screw up or do ok at the trade deadline last season" fight? So far i like the twins off-season. The draft looks very good and the FO made a number of moves and decisions like look smart, and it wasn't exactly a draft where every pick was obvious and they just had to wait for it to come to them. I like the trade of the int'l cap money for the prospects. Grabbing a catching prospect is especially good for our system and we gave away so very little for them that it's almost impossible not to call this a win. Bringing back Molitor was a good move as well and they handled it a way that was professional. They're continuing to remodel the organizational structure and minor league system the way they want to see it, which I'm fine with. (Dumping Doug Mienkiewitz is fine; he's the one who came off like a jackass to everyone who isn't in his pocket) Has anything else happened this hot stove? Yeah, we missed out of the stud from Japan, but that one was kind of a long shot form the get-go, wasn't it? Real free agency and trading hasn't even gotten started yet. but so far, they seem to be doing everything right and it lends confidence they';ll make smart decisions in the upcoming.

I think exposing Stewart is a reasonable move. He's not a short-term option for the 'pen right now and hasn't taken the leap forward he needs as a starter (velocity plateaued, K's haven't come, control has fluctuated) so while he's still an interesting prospect, you'd really be taking a risk trying to hold him on a MLB roster for the whole season. Hard to hold that roster spot for a guy who isn't ready to pitch right now at that level and needs innings in the minors if he's ever going to get there. I'd prefer he stays with the Twins because I do think there's still a chance for him but it's also not a terrible loss if he goes (just an indictment on the previous regime for busting a high pick). I'd like Mauer to keep playing for the Twins, in part just to piss off Dan Barriero. But if he can stay healthy like he did this year and play at this level, he's a real asset. Not a $23M asset, but them's the breaks. I don't know what the right price is for him, where the line is between what's a good value for the team and what's a number he just says, "nah, I'm good." No new deal should be longer than 2 years, though. 2 years, $20M? If Joe gets through another season playing 140 games with this level of hitting and defense, I'd love to have him back for another go around. Don't want Hosmer. Not even a little. Mauer was better defensively despite the GG and Hosmer has had some bad years sandwiched right in what should be his prime. This was Hosmer's best year as a pro and there are enough red flags that anyone signing him to a big deal should be nervous. he's not a good fit here and there's too much risk.

I don't think there's any question that Johan had a worthy peak. The question is whether that peak was high enough long enough to make up for the shortness of the overall career. It's not an easy one, and I think it makes Johan borderline. I would argue yes. he wasn't a guy who was only good for 5 years and did nothing else; he was a guy who was amazing for 5 years, good for 4 more, then around for 3 more past that (2 getting started and 1 trying to hang on). If he'd tacked on 3 more years like his last one with the Mets and boosted his innings and wins by 10-15% would it really change much about his case for the HoF? I don't think so, although it probably earns him a lot more votes. I can't hold post-season against Johan. The first two season were relief jobs when he was still a pup. As a starter he only got 5 chances: 3 great, 1 ok (pulled early), 1 awful. Given his last three were his best just when he was hitting his prime, it's hard to think he wouldn't have done well with more opportunities, and it's not like he was a disaster. Johan had a 5 year stretch where you had to bring his name up as one of the best pitchers in his league or people would look at you funny. He's got the awards and the "black type" stats to back it up. There's just enough years for me to be ok with him going in, because of the sustained greatness.

Personally, I prefer a guy who pitched at the absolute peak but got cut a little short on the years over the guy who never really dominated the same way but had the full length and health of a typical HoF guy. Johan was a comet and while that's always going to make you a little borderline, I think he deserves it. Johan wasn't just a "maybe" guy for best pitcher in baseball; for five years straight if you didn't bring him up in that conversation you were an idiot. That says a lot. Stieb doesn't have the story, and played basically his entire career in canada, but the most significant difference between him and Morris is Jack stayed healthier for a few years longer. (which basically accounts for their difference in fWAR; bWAR is another tale) The other difference is Jack played in more post-seasons; Jack was great in 2 of them, bad in two of them. Stieb was good in 1, bad in 1. I'm not advocating for Stieb for the Hall, but Morris and Stieb overlapped almost their entire careers and ended up as not unreasonable comps for each other. I just don't think 2-3 additional seasons of ok pitching is enough to get you into the Hall.

I used bWAR in part because I think their modelling makes more sense for evaluating a pitcher's season (Rany explains it better than me: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2017/11/29/16712482/future-of-war-aaron-judge-jose-altuve-bill-james-debate ) The defense does explain some of it, but Morris also pitched behind excellent defenders, trammel & whitaker most notably, for basically his entire career...and according to fWAR some years he got bailed out by his defense and some years he didn't. considering how we're still trying to evaluate defensive value, I don't love the way fWAR uses FIP to calculate WAR, especially when you consider cases like Nolan Ryan as Rany presented in the link above. I'm not saying Stieb is a HoF pitcher, but you're sort of making my case for me: Stieb and Morris are interesting comps for each other in the 80's and ain't no one talking about Dave Stieb for the Hall, yet people act like it's this great injustice that Jack isn't in. (fWAR has them as basically the exact same pitcher in the time frame you highlight; bWAR would tell you to take Stieb every time and that was basically Stieb's career.) I can't say I love the argument that Jack should be in the Hall and not Dave because Jack stayed healthier for a few years longer and some people are pretty sure Dave pitched in front of better defenses.

Diagree with your analysis here; it's far too generous to Morris. Palmer and Hubbell (who are actually pretty decent comps for each other despite pitching in very different eras) were both substantially better pitchers than Morris. Palmer didn't deserve as many Cy's as he got, but he definitely should have gotten at least one, arguably two. But both pitchers were significantly better at run prevention than Morris. ERA+: Palmer 125, Hubbell 130, Morris 105. bWAR: Palmer 68.1, Hubbell 67.8, Morris 43.8. Both Palmer and Hubbell had Morris' greatest strength (ability to eat up a lot of innings) but coupled it with greater ability to prevent runs. Palmer and Morris both had the benefit of fine defenders playing behind them (Palmer especially had some of the best defenses of all time working behind him) but even taking that into account, Palmer is still a significantly better pitcher. I brought Morris into the discussion because a) someone suggested that Santana shouldn't be in if Morris wasn't, and there's been a fair amount of commentary about Morris getting in off the small committee vote that is looking at players from his era. (BTW, I really don't think Morris was robbed in '83; Hoyt shouldn't have won as he wasn't even the best pitcher on his own team. But Dave Steib is the guy who really should have won it. Morris is in a pack with Dotson and MacGregor and a few others. Steib is probably the most underrated pitcher from that time frame, and had a four year run where he was almost certainly the best pitcher in the AL and should have won 2 Cy's; he was tremendous from '82-'85) I do agree that the Koufax case has some similarities for Santana; Koufax was better and had to quit at the height of his powers because of injury, and also had the post-season success to go with it. But Sandy is considered a no-doubter HoF guy. No one really argues it. If that's where your starting point is on Santana, that's pretty strong for your case.